Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KILX 241921
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday

Main forecast concern this period will be timing and coverage of
convection as a series of shortwaves track southeast across the
region. Already seeing a band of elevated storms over parts of
northwest Iowa tracking south-southeast with additional clusters
of storms to the northwest over the Dakotas in a zone of low and
mid level warm advection. Will maintain low chance POPs for our
counties to the west of the Illinois River well after midnight.
Forecast soundings thru tomorrow morning characterized by a dry
and stable atmosphere over the entire region and that will steadily
change as a warm front shifts northeast into our area by late in
the day or at night. Still appears the better chances for showers
and storms will be across the north Friday, but based on the
movement of the storms over northwest Iowa, we may have to watch
our west and southern counties if the trajectories hold. Warmest
temperatures Friday will be across the south and west where cloud
cover and rain threat will be minimal. We should see temperatures
climb into the lower 80s there with upper 70s across the north and
east where cloud cover will be a little thicker.

Warm front should begin to lift north of the area tomorrow evening
with the better convection chances along and to its north. Will
maintain the higher pops across the north closer to the boundary
with progressively lower pops south Friday night. A rather stout
elevated mixed layer or cap will invade the region on Saturday
bringing hot and humid weather back into the region. Big question
becomes convection chances and coverage during the day Saturday
as the area will see a significant cap hold until late in the day.
Several of the forecast soundings indicating the cap weakening
after 20z on Saturday as a frontal boundary edges into the forecast
area so pops will be higher in the afternoon with likely pops
looking reasonable Saturday night with precipitable water values
above 2 inches and warm cloud depths of over 13000 feet indicating
the likelihood for heavy rainfall in parts of our area.

The upper wave should begin shifting across our area Sunday
morning with showers and thunderstorm chances gradually lowering
from west to east during the afternoon. Possible redevelopment
of storms across our far east but not very confident on that,
especially if a large MCS affects the area later Saturday night
into Sunday. Rain chances, other than our far eastern counties,
will diminish Sunday evening with much cooler and less humid air
filtering southeast into the forecast area on Monday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Ensembles showing good agreement with the deep trof expected to
form over the eastern U.S. bringing another bout of unseasonably
cool weather for most of this forecast period. Only challenge,
other than how cool the night-time lows will get, will be if
the very cool temperatures aloft will be able to produce some
diurnally driven showers each afternoon. At this point, it appears
that is a low probability event, so will continue to hold on to
our dry and cool forecast thru Thursday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast period. High
pressure to our north this afternoon will drift off to our east
this evening allowing winds to turn more into the southeast
overnight. A weather disturbance out across the Northern Plains
will drop southeast into the region increasing our cloud cover
after midnight and bringing rain chances to parts of the area.
As of now, will include VCSH in PIA as a complex of storms will
track southeast into parts of eastern Iowa before running into
our very dry air mass and weakening. Initially, we will see some
mid level cloud cover move in after 10z across the north with
some sct-bkn mid and high level cloud cover durnig the day further
south. Surface winds will become light southeast to south late
tonight and out of the south on Friday with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 241921
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday

Main forecast concern this period will be timing and coverage of
convection as a series of shortwaves track southeast across the
region. Already seeing a band of elevated storms over parts of
northwest Iowa tracking south-southeast with additional clusters
of storms to the northwest over the Dakotas in a zone of low and
mid level warm advection. Will maintain low chance POPs for our
counties to the west of the Illinois River well after midnight.
Forecast soundings thru tomorrow morning characterized by a dry
and stable atmosphere over the entire region and that will steadily
change as a warm front shifts northeast into our area by late in
the day or at night. Still appears the better chances for showers
and storms will be across the north Friday, but based on the
movement of the storms over northwest Iowa, we may have to watch
our west and southern counties if the trajectories hold. Warmest
temperatures Friday will be across the south and west where cloud
cover and rain threat will be minimal. We should see temperatures
climb into the lower 80s there with upper 70s across the north and
east where cloud cover will be a little thicker.

Warm front should begin to lift north of the area tomorrow evening
with the better convection chances along and to its north. Will
maintain the higher pops across the north closer to the boundary
with progressively lower pops south Friday night. A rather stout
elevated mixed layer or cap will invade the region on Saturday
bringing hot and humid weather back into the region. Big question
becomes convection chances and coverage during the day Saturday
as the area will see a significant cap hold until late in the day.
Several of the forecast soundings indicating the cap weakening
after 20z on Saturday as a frontal boundary edges into the forecast
area so pops will be higher in the afternoon with likely pops
looking reasonable Saturday night with precipitable water values
above 2 inches and warm cloud depths of over 13000 feet indicating
the likelihood for heavy rainfall in parts of our area.

The upper wave should begin shifting across our area Sunday
morning with showers and thunderstorm chances gradually lowering
from west to east during the afternoon. Possible redevelopment
of storms across our far east but not very confident on that,
especially if a large MCS affects the area later Saturday night
into Sunday. Rain chances, other than our far eastern counties,
will diminish Sunday evening with much cooler and less humid air
filtering southeast into the forecast area on Monday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Ensembles showing good agreement with the deep trof expected to
form over the eastern U.S. bringing another bout of unseasonably
cool weather for most of this forecast period. Only challenge,
other than how cool the night-time lows will get, will be if
the very cool temperatures aloft will be able to produce some
diurnally driven showers each afternoon. At this point, it appears
that is a low probability event, so will continue to hold on to
our dry and cool forecast thru Thursday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast period. High
pressure to our north this afternoon will drift off to our east
this evening allowing winds to turn more into the southeast
overnight. A weather disturbance out across the Northern Plains
will drop southeast into the region increasing our cloud cover
after midnight and bringing rain chances to parts of the area.
As of now, will include VCSH in PIA as a complex of storms will
track southeast into parts of eastern Iowa before running into
our very dry air mass and weakening. Initially, we will see some
mid level cloud cover move in after 10z across the north with
some sct-bkn mid and high level cloud cover durnig the day further
south. Surface winds will become light southeast to south late
tonight and out of the south on Friday with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 241745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure to our north will bring us one more pleasant day before
a series of shortwaves track east southeast into the region starting
tomorrow. Until then, a dry northeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon bringing delightfully cool weather to the forecast area.
Forecast soundings suggest some scattered cumulus this afternoon
with the better coverage across the east. Based off the temperature
trends this morning will bump the afternoon highs up a couple of
degrees most areas. Other than that, not too many other adjustments
needed to going forecast. Will have the update out shortly.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast period. High
pressure to our north this afternoon will drift off to our east
this evening allowing winds to turn more into the southeast
overnight. A weather disturbance out across the Northern Plains
will drop southeast into the region increasing our cloud cover
after midnight and bringing rain chances to parts of the area.
As of now, will include VCSH in PIA as a complex of storms will
track southeast into parts of eastern Iowa before running into
our very dry air mass and weakening. Initially, we will see some
mid level cloud cover move in after 10z across the north with
some sct-bkn mid and high level cloud cover durnig the day further
south. Surface winds will become light southeast to south late
tonight and out of the south on Friday with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 241745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure to our north will bring us one more pleasant day before
a series of shortwaves track east southeast into the region starting
tomorrow. Until then, a dry northeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon bringing delightfully cool weather to the forecast area.
Forecast soundings suggest some scattered cumulus this afternoon
with the better coverage across the east. Based off the temperature
trends this morning will bump the afternoon highs up a couple of
degrees most areas. Other than that, not too many other adjustments
needed to going forecast. Will have the update out shortly.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast period. High
pressure to our north this afternoon will drift off to our east
this evening allowing winds to turn more into the southeast
overnight. A weather disturbance out across the Northern Plains
will drop southeast into the region increasing our cloud cover
after midnight and bringing rain chances to parts of the area.
As of now, will include VCSH in PIA as a complex of storms will
track southeast into parts of eastern Iowa before running into
our very dry air mass and weakening. Initially, we will see some
mid level cloud cover move in after 10z across the north with
some sct-bkn mid and high level cloud cover durnig the day further
south. Surface winds will become light southeast to south late
tonight and out of the south on Friday with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KILX 241542
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure to our north will bring us one more pleasant day before
a series of shortwaves track east southeast into the region starting
tomorrow. Until then, a dry northeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon bringing delightfully cool weather to the forecast area.
Forecast soundings suggest some scattered cumulus this afternoon
with the better coverage across the east. Based off the temperature
trends this morning will bump the afternoon highs up a couple of
degrees most areas. Other than that, not too many other adjustments
needed to going forecast. Will have the update out shortly.

Smith
&&


.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure and dry air today will help keep VFR conditions for
all terminal sites over the next 24 hours.

An early look at the 12z KILX sounding shows 25kts of wind from
050 at 600ft AGL. We could see some gusty northeast winds at
times this morning after mixing develops.

Winds should weak with diurnal cooling this evening. Clouds will
be minimal today, with just a few cumulus in the 4-5k level.

Storms could approach PIA late tonight, but we only included
increase mid clouds after 10z tonight for now.

DEC ob site is still down, so amendments are not scheduled at
night, when the airport tower does not augment observations.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 241542
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure to our north will bring us one more pleasant day before
a series of shortwaves track east southeast into the region starting
tomorrow. Until then, a dry northeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon bringing delightfully cool weather to the forecast area.
Forecast soundings suggest some scattered cumulus this afternoon
with the better coverage across the east. Based off the temperature
trends this morning will bump the afternoon highs up a couple of
degrees most areas. Other than that, not too many other adjustments
needed to going forecast. Will have the update out shortly.

Smith
&&


.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure and dry air today will help keep VFR conditions for
all terminal sites over the next 24 hours.

An early look at the 12z KILX sounding shows 25kts of wind from
050 at 600ft AGL. We could see some gusty northeast winds at
times this morning after mixing develops.

Winds should weak with diurnal cooling this evening. Clouds will
be minimal today, with just a few cumulus in the 4-5k level.

Storms could approach PIA late tonight, but we only included
increase mid clouds after 10z tonight for now.

DEC ob site is still down, so amendments are not scheduled at
night, when the airport tower does not augment observations.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 241202
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
702 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure and dry air today will help keep VFR conditions for
all terminal sites over the next 24 hours.

An early look at the 12z KILX sounding shows 25kts of wind from
050 at 600ft AGL. We could see some gusty northeast winds at
times this morning after mixing develops.

Winds should weak with diurnal cooling this evening. Clouds will
be minimal today, with just a few cumulus in the 4-5k level.

Storms could approach PIA late tonight, but we only included
increase mid clouds after 10z tonight for now.

DEC ob site is still down, so amendments are not scheduled at
night, when the airport tower does not augment observations.


Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 241202
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
702 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure and dry air today will help keep VFR conditions for
all terminal sites over the next 24 hours.

An early look at the 12z KILX sounding shows 25kts of wind from
050 at 600ft AGL. We could see some gusty northeast winds at
times this morning after mixing develops.

Winds should weak with diurnal cooling this evening. Clouds will
be minimal today, with just a few cumulus in the 4-5k level.

Storms could approach PIA late tonight, but we only included
increase mid clouds after 10z tonight for now.

DEC ob site is still down, so amendments are not scheduled at
night, when the airport tower does not augment observations.


Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 240749
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.


SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.


LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will remain clear overnight, followed by a little bit of CU
developing tomorrow across the area. CU should remain scattered
and may only be few at some sites given the drier high pressure
moving into the area. However, will go with scattered at all sites
for now. Skies will then clear again tomorrow evening. Winds will
be light but out of the northeast overnight and tomorrow, then
becoming southeast by tomorrow evening.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 240749
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.


SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an MCS
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the CWA during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another MCS is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another MCS forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last MCS is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable CAPE`s over 3000 J/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest SPC Day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.


LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will remain clear overnight, followed by a little bit of CU
developing tomorrow across the area. CU should remain scattered
and may only be few at some sites given the drier high pressure
moving into the area. However, will go with scattered at all sites
for now. Skies will then clear again tomorrow evening. Winds will
be light but out of the northeast overnight and tomorrow, then
becoming southeast by tomorrow evening.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KILX 240450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Skies have cleared and winds are starting to decrease some.
Current forecast looks good, so minor tweaks to hourly
temps/dewpoints and sky cover needed. No update planned at this
time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will remain clear overnight, followed by a little bit of CU
developing tomorrow across the area. CU should remain scattered
and may only be few at some sites given the drier high pressure
moving into the area. However, will go with scattered at all sites
for now. Skies will then clear again tomorrow evening. Winds will
be light but out of the northeast overnight and tomorrow, then
becoming southeast by tomorrow evening.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 240200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Skies have cleared and winds are starting to decrease some.
Current forecast looks good, so minor tweaks to hourly
temps/dewpoints and sky cover needed. No update planned at this
time.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Some CU
is still around at PIA and BMI, but this will dissipate quickly in
next 1-2 hrs. Then clear skies overnight at all sites is expected.
Expecting some CU to develop again tomorrow, but not as much as
today; though still will have scattered in the TAFs. Winds will be
north to northeast tonight with speeds decreasing and becoming
lighter, especially at CMI where gusts may still be there for an
hour or two. DEC observation is missing at 23z, but data should be
getting into the system via FSS. Since ATC personnel will be
leaving later tonight, observation will not be available at 02Z.
So will have AMD NOT SKED from 03Z til 11Z in DEC TAF.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 240200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Skies have cleared and winds are starting to decrease some.
Current forecast looks good, so minor tweaks to hourly
temps/dewpoints and sky cover needed. No update planned at this
time.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Some CU
is still around at PIA and BMI, but this will dissipate quickly in
next 1-2 hrs. Then clear skies overnight at all sites is expected.
Expecting some CU to develop again tomorrow, but not as much as
today; though still will have scattered in the TAFs. Winds will be
north to northeast tonight with speeds decreasing and becoming
lighter, especially at CMI where gusts may still be there for an
hour or two. DEC observation is missing at 23z, but data should be
getting into the system via FSS. Since ATC personnel will be
leaving later tonight, observation will not be available at 02Z.
So will have AMD NOT SKED from 03Z til 11Z in DEC TAF.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 232331
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Some CU
is still around at PIA and BMI, but this will dissipate quickly in
next 1-2 hrs. Then clear skies overnight at all sites is expected.
Expecting some CU to develop again tomorrow, but not as much as
today; though still will have scattered in the TAFs. Winds will be
north to northeast tonight with speeds decreasing and becoming
lighter, especially at CMI where gusts may still be there for an
hour or two. DEC observation is missing at 23z, but data should be
getting into the system via FSS. Since ATC personnel will be
leaving later tonight, observation will not be available at 02Z.
So will have AMD NOT SKED from 03Z til 11Z in DEC TAF.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 232331
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Some CU
is still around at PIA and BMI, but this will dissipate quickly in
next 1-2 hrs. Then clear skies overnight at all sites is expected.
Expecting some CU to develop again tomorrow, but not as much as
today; though still will have scattered in the TAFs. Winds will be
north to northeast tonight with speeds decreasing and becoming
lighter, especially at CMI where gusts may still be there for an
hour or two. DEC observation is missing at 23z, but data should be
getting into the system via FSS. Since ATC personnel will be
leaving later tonight, observation will not be available at 02Z.
So will have AMD NOT SKED from 03Z til 11Z in DEC TAF.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 231953
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions should prevail across the central IL airports
through 18Z Thu. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-6k ft to occur this
afternoon and possibly broken early this afternoon along I-72.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to stay se of I-70
this afternoon as cold front pushes through far southeast IL
early this afternoon. Cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset
and few-scattered cumulus clouds to appear after 15z Thu
especially at CMI and DEC. NNE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts this afternoon to diminish to 4-8 kts after sunset and be 5-10
kts Thu morning.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 231953
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Cold front currently along the Ohio River will continue to sag
southward tonight, as high pressure builds into the region from
the Northern Plains. N/NE flow around the high will bring a much
cooler/drier airmass southward, resulting in overnight lows
dipping into the middle to upper 50s. Dewpoints will lower
significantly as well, so am not expecting any issues with fog
overnight. Sunny and cool weather will persist on Thursday, with
afternoon highs remaining in the 70s.

A more active weather pattern will begin to develop Thursday night
through Saturday, as a series of upper short-waves ride up and
over a prevailing ridge centered over the Plains. The first wave
is expected to trigger a thunderstorm complex across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa Thursday night. Model solutions vary
concerning the exact track and timing of the complex, so forecast
confidence is slightly below normal with this feature. NAM
appears to be the furthest south and fastest model, while the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all further north and slower. Given presence of
dry airmass beneath surface ridge axis stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley, think NAM is too aggressive
in driving precip into Illinois late Thursday night. Prefer the
slower/more northern model consensus. As a result, will only carry
a slight chance PoP along/northwest of the Illinois River after
midnight Thursday night. Will spread low chance PoPs across the
northern half of the KILX CWA on Friday as upper wave passes to
the north and weak warm front lifts northward through the area. A
second upper wave may enhance convection across parts of the area
Friday night: however, models are in poor agreement here as well.
Will therefore maintain just chance PoPs at this time.

As surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will drop southward into central Illinois on Saturday.
Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, producing CAPE values of 2000 to 3000J/kg.
Despite good instability and 0-6km shear increasing to between 40
and 50kt by afternoon, airmass will remain capped. As a result,
will continue with just chance PoPs through the day. Best chance
for widespread showers/storms arrives Saturday night, as
approaching upper wave weakens cap and associated surface low
pressure tracks along the slow-moving frontal boundary. With all
the ingredients for convection coming into better focus, have
bumped PoPs to likely Saturday night.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Scattered showers/storms will linger into Sunday, before cold
front clears the area later in the day. After that, extended
forecast will be dominated by large upper low centered over the
Great Lakes. Northerly flow will bring another unseasonably cool
July airmass into the region, with highs only reaching the lower
to middle 70s on Monday. Cool/dry weather will prevail through
Wednesday before another wave potentially brings precip chances
back into the picture by the end of next week.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions should prevail across the central IL airports
through 18Z Thu. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-6k ft to occur this
afternoon and possibly broken early this afternoon along I-72.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to stay se of I-70
this afternoon as cold front pushes through far southeast IL
early this afternoon. Cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset
and few-scattered cumulus clouds to appear after 15z Thu
especially at CMI and DEC. NNE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts this afternoon to diminish to 4-8 kts after sunset and be 5-10
kts Thu morning.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 231729
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main update is to
remove morning wording in southeast IL. Will continue 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL into early
afternoon mainly southeast of I-70. Cold front just south of I-70
is projected to push southeast of Lawrence county around 18Z/1 pm.
Still rather humid over southeast IL today with dewpoint in the
upper 60s to near 70F, while drier air works south into central IL
with dewpoints slipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cooler
highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mildest readings
in southeast IL and from Springfield sw.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions should prevail across the central IL airports
through 18Z Thu. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-6k ft to occur this
afternoon and possibly broken early this afternoon along I-72.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to stay se of I-70
this afternoon as cold front pushes through far southeast IL
early this afternoon. Cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset
and few-scattered cumulus clouds to appear after 15z Thu
especially at CMI and DEC. NNE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts this afternoon to diminish to 4-8 kts after sunset and be 5-10
kts Thu morning.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 231729
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main update is to
remove morning wording in southeast IL. Will continue 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL into early
afternoon mainly southeast of I-70. Cold front just south of I-70
is projected to push southeast of Lawrence county around 18Z/1 pm.
Still rather humid over southeast IL today with dewpoint in the
upper 60s to near 70F, while drier air works south into central IL
with dewpoints slipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cooler
highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mildest readings
in southeast IL and from Springfield sw.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions should prevail across the central IL airports
through 18Z Thu. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-6k ft to occur this
afternoon and possibly broken early this afternoon along I-72.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to stay se of I-70
this afternoon as cold front pushes through far southeast IL
early this afternoon. Cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset
and few-scattered cumulus clouds to appear after 15z Thu
especially at CMI and DEC. NNE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts this afternoon to diminish to 4-8 kts after sunset and be 5-10
kts Thu morning.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 231544
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main update is to
remove morning wording in southeast IL. Will continue 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL into early
afternoon mainly southeast of I-70. Cold front just south of I-70
is projected to push southeast of Lawrence county around 18Z/1 pm.
Still rather humid over southeast IL today with dewpoint in the
upper 60s to near 70F, while drier air works south into central IL
with dewpoints slipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cooler
highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mildest readings
in southeast IL and from Springfield sw.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 710 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions have returned after some IFR/MVFR low clouds
lingered behind the departing cold front. Gusty NE winds increased
behind the front as well, with sustained 12-15kt and gusts in the
20-24kt range. Those winds will likely continue for the morning as
pressure rises remain high. Some decrease in wind gusts should
develop this afternoon as surface high pressure advances farther
into IL.

Clear skies and light northeast winds should prevail after sunset
today, under the high pressure. MVFR fog chances should remain
low, as dewpoints continue to drop over the next 24 hours.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 231544
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main update is to
remove morning wording in southeast IL. Will continue 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL into early
afternoon mainly southeast of I-70. Cold front just south of I-70
is projected to push southeast of Lawrence county around 18Z/1 pm.
Still rather humid over southeast IL today with dewpoint in the
upper 60s to near 70F, while drier air works south into central IL
with dewpoints slipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cooler
highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mildest readings
in southeast IL and from Springfield sw.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 710 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions have returned after some IFR/MVFR low clouds
lingered behind the departing cold front. Gusty NE winds increased
behind the front as well, with sustained 12-15kt and gusts in the
20-24kt range. Those winds will likely continue for the morning as
pressure rises remain high. Some decrease in wind gusts should
develop this afternoon as surface high pressure advances farther
into IL.

Clear skies and light northeast winds should prevail after sunset
today, under the high pressure. MVFR fog chances should remain
low, as dewpoints continue to drop over the next 24 hours.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 231219
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
719 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 710 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions have returned after some IFR/MVFR low clouds
lingered behind the departing cold front. Gusty NE winds increased
behind the front as well, with sustained 12-15kt and gusts in the
20-24kt range. Those winds will likely continue for the morning as
pressure rises remain high. Some decrease in wind gusts should
develop this afternoon as surface high pressure advances farther
into IL.

Clear skies and light northeast winds should prevail after sunset
today, under the high pressure. MVFR fog chances should remain
low, as dewpoints continue to drop over the next 24 hours.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 231219
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
719 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 710 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions have returned after some IFR/MVFR low clouds
lingered behind the departing cold front. Gusty NE winds increased
behind the front as well, with sustained 12-15kt and gusts in the
20-24kt range. Those winds will likely continue for the morning as
pressure rises remain high. Some decrease in wind gusts should
develop this afternoon as surface high pressure advances farther
into IL.

Clear skies and light northeast winds should prevail after sunset
today, under the high pressure. MVFR fog chances should remain
low, as dewpoints continue to drop over the next 24 hours.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 230740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.


SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.


LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Except for a small period of time overnight when vis will be
around 5SM and cigs will be 2.5kft, MVFR, conditions should be VFR
for most of the TAF period. The front is still slowly moving
through the area, so all TAF sites could still see some
storms/showers. PIA could still see something for about an hour,
BMI and SPI for 2hrs, DEC for about 3hrs, and CMI for about 2 hrs,
though starting around 08z. Once the front goes through, winds get
light, and with low level moisture still being high, light fog
will be possible at all sites. So have 5SM BR during several hours
overnight at all sites. As is being seen at some sites, cigs
around 2.5kft could happen, but only going to have a TEMPO group
for this. Then expecting some CU development tomorrow, even though
drier air is advecting into the area tomorrow. This CU will
dissipate tomorrow evening, resulting in clear skies tomorrow
night. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front/s, but become
light; then northwest behind the front. Expecting north-northeast
winds tomorrow, with speeds around 10-12kts during the daytime hours.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KILX 230740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Initial wind shift with the cold front has reached roughly along
the I-55 corridor as of 2 am, although the drier conditions lag
behind a bit with dew points still in the lower 70s northwest past
Galesburg. A warm atmosphere, with 700 mb temperatures near 13C on
on our evening sounding, and the extended effects of a strong 600
dm 500 mb high over Colorado, have largely kept the air capped
over our area. What storms managed to form didn`t do much before
fizzling. However, a more pronounced line of storms has formed
over northern Indiana and northeast Illinois, ahead of the upper
level shortwave. This line will be clipping out far northeast CWA
before sunrise.

The main forecast challenges for this package involves nocturnal
convective chances Thursday night and again Friday night.


SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:

The front will likely be along the I-70 corridor around sunrise,
but may take much of the morning to fully clear the area. Latest
HRRR and SPC 4km WRF showing some convection redeveloping
immediately along the boundary beginning around 9 am and moving
across the southeast CWA the remainder of the morning, so will
maintain some 30-40% PoP`s in that area through noon. The
remainder of the forecast area will see north-northeast winds
spreading less humid conditions over the area. Highs across the
northeast counties will likely struggle to reach 80 degrees as the
cooler air is advected in.

Main core of the cooler air arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures
drop to around 11C. Lows of 50-55 expected over the entire
forecast area. Currently looks like these will fall a couple
degrees shy of records in most areas. Pleasant temperatures to
continue through Thursday night.

Upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest will be tracking
northeast into the southern Canadian prairies through Thursday
night, suppressing the high in more of a west-east configuration
across the southern states. Increasing low level jet across Iowa
expected to form an MCS there Thursday evening, tracking southeast
along the 850 mb thermal gradient. The ECMWF is most progressive
with bringing the leading edge all the way to Champaign by
sunrise, but general model consensus has it still just northwest
of the Illinois River by then. Have added some 30% PoP`s for late
Thursday night in the far northwest CWA, and added PoP`s across
much of the north half of the forecast area for Friday as the
remnants of the MCS pass. Another MCS expected to form a bit
further east Friday evening over Illinois, although the NAM is
completely dry by that point. Have not made much change to the
PoP`s for Friday night and Saturday, although the highest chances
may need to be shifted a bit further east in later forecasts.


LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday:

The closed upper low is expected to open up into a wave over the
weekend, as the high rebuilds along and west of the Rockies. A
rather pronounced broad upper trough will prevail a good portion
of next week, with another round of cooler air similar to what
we`ll be seeing over the next 36 hours. Showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as the wave moves overhead,
with chances after that minimal and mainly during afternoon
heating.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Except for a small period of time overnight when vis will be
around 5SM and cigs will be 2.5kft, MVFR, conditions should be VFR
for most of the TAF period. The front is still slowly moving
through the area, so all TAF sites could still see some
storms/showers. PIA could still see something for about an hour,
BMI and SPI for 2hrs, DEC for about 3hrs, and CMI for about 2 hrs,
though starting around 08z. Once the front goes through, winds get
light, and with low level moisture still being high, light fog
will be possible at all sites. So have 5SM BR during several hours
overnight at all sites. As is being seen at some sites, cigs
around 2.5kft could happen, but only going to have a TEMPO group
for this. Then expecting some CU development tomorrow, even though
drier air is advecting into the area tomorrow. This CU will
dissipate tomorrow evening, resulting in clear skies tomorrow
night. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front/s, but become
light; then northwest behind the front. Expecting north-northeast
winds tomorrow, with speeds around 10-12kts during the daytime hours.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 230456
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A boundary and the main front will still move through the area
tonight. Any thunderstorms that have developed along these
boundaries have not amounted to much as ILX 00Z sounding shows
high cape, but also very high CIN/capping in the lower layers.
Middle layers of the atmosphere are also very dry. So
storms/showers fizzle quickly and do not get much vertical
development. So will be updating pops for the overnight period.
Will be keeping chance, but have removed likelies. Confidence is
lower than earlier this afternoon. Remainder of forecast looks
fine, including temps and winds. Update will be out shortly.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Except for a small period of time overnight when vis will be
around 5SM and cigs will be 2.5kft, MVFR, conditions should be VFR
for most of the TAF period. The front is still slowly moving
through the area, so all TAF sites could still see some
storms/showers. PIA could still see something for about an hour,
BMI and SPI for 2hrs, DEC for about 3hrs, and CMI for about 2 hrs,
though starting around 08z. Once the front goes through, winds get
light, and with low level moisture still being high, light fog
will be possible at all sites. So have 5SM BR during several hours
overnight at all sites. As is being seen at some sites, cigs
around 2.5kft could happen, but only going to have a TEMPO group
for this. Then expecting some CU development tomorrow, even though
drier air is advecting into the area tomorrow. This CU will
dissipate tomorrow evening, resulting in clear skies tomorrow
night. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front/s, but become
light; then northwest behind the front. Expecting north-northeast
winds tomorrow, with speeds around 10-12kts during the daytime hours.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 230456
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A boundary and the main front will still move through the area
tonight. Any thunderstorms that have developed along these
boundaries have not amounted to much as ILX 00Z sounding shows
high cape, but also very high CIN/capping in the lower layers.
Middle layers of the atmosphere are also very dry. So
storms/showers fizzle quickly and do not get much vertical
development. So will be updating pops for the overnight period.
Will be keeping chance, but have removed likelies. Confidence is
lower than earlier this afternoon. Remainder of forecast looks
fine, including temps and winds. Update will be out shortly.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Except for a small period of time overnight when vis will be
around 5SM and cigs will be 2.5kft, MVFR, conditions should be VFR
for most of the TAF period. The front is still slowly moving
through the area, so all TAF sites could still see some
storms/showers. PIA could still see something for about an hour,
BMI and SPI for 2hrs, DEC for about 3hrs, and CMI for about 2 hrs,
though starting around 08z. Once the front goes through, winds get
light, and with low level moisture still being high, light fog
will be possible at all sites. So have 5SM BR during several hours
overnight at all sites. As is being seen at some sites, cigs
around 2.5kft could happen, but only going to have a TEMPO group
for this. Then expecting some CU development tomorrow, even though
drier air is advecting into the area tomorrow. This CU will
dissipate tomorrow evening, resulting in clear skies tomorrow
night. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front/s, but become
light; then northwest behind the front. Expecting north-northeast
winds tomorrow, with speeds around 10-12kts during the daytime hours.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 230205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A boundary and the main front will still move through the area
tonight. Any thunderstorms that have developed along these
boundaries have not amounted to much as ILX 00Z sounding shows
high cape, but also very high CIN/capping in the lower layers.
Middle layers of the atmosphere are also very dry. So
storms/showers fizzle quickly and do not get much vertical
development. So will be updating pops for the overnight period.
Will be keeping chance, but have removed likelies. Confidence is
lower than earlier this afternoon. Remainder of forecast looks
fine, including temps and winds. Update will be out shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 705 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Believe VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. A
small area of showers is slowly moving through the area this
evening. In addition, a frontal boundary is still back along the
Mississippi river. With lots of moisture pooling along and ahead
of the front, thunderstorms are still possible this evening. So,
will keep at least a VCTS in all the TAFs for this evening til
around midnight. The limiting factor for thunderstorms is that it
is too warm at around 5kft. So any storms or showers that develop
will not be able to get much height. So do not expect them to last
very long. Then after the front moves through skies will scatter
out some. Then expecting cu to redevelop during the morning hours
with some high cirrus. Winds will be southeast til the front moves
through, and then become northwest and then north-northeast tomorrow.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 230205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A boundary and the main front will still move through the area
tonight. Any thunderstorms that have developed along these
boundaries have not amounted to much as ILX 00Z sounding shows
high cape, but also very high CIN/capping in the lower layers.
Middle layers of the atmosphere are also very dry. So
storms/showers fizzle quickly and do not get much vertical
development. So will be updating pops for the overnight period.
Will be keeping chance, but have removed likelies. Confidence is
lower than earlier this afternoon. Remainder of forecast looks
fine, including temps and winds. Update will be out shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 705 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Believe VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. A
small area of showers is slowly moving through the area this
evening. In addition, a frontal boundary is still back along the
Mississippi river. With lots of moisture pooling along and ahead
of the front, thunderstorms are still possible this evening. So,
will keep at least a VCTS in all the TAFs for this evening til
around midnight. The limiting factor for thunderstorms is that it
is too warm at around 5kft. So any storms or showers that develop
will not be able to get much height. So do not expect them to last
very long. Then after the front moves through skies will scatter
out some. Then expecting cu to redevelop during the morning hours
with some high cirrus. Winds will be southeast til the front moves
through, and then become northwest and then north-northeast tomorrow.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 230006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
706 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 705 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Believe VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. A
small area of showers is slowly moving through the area this
evening. In addition, a frontal boundary is still back along the
Mississippi river. With lots of moisture pooling along and ahead
of the front, thunderstorms are still possible this evening. So,
will keep at least a VCTS in all the TAFs for this evening til
around midnight. The limiting factor for thunderstorms is that it
is too warm at around 5kft. So any storms or showers that develop
will not be able to get much height. So do not expect them to last
very long. Then after the front moves through skies will scatter
out some. Then expecting cu to redevelop during the morning hours
with some high cirrus. Winds will be southeast til the front moves
through, and then become northwest and then north-northeast tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 230006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
706 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 705 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Believe VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. A
small area of showers is slowly moving through the area this
evening. In addition, a frontal boundary is still back along the
Mississippi river. With lots of moisture pooling along and ahead
of the front, thunderstorms are still possible this evening. So,
will keep at least a VCTS in all the TAFs for this evening til
around midnight. The limiting factor for thunderstorms is that it
is too warm at around 5kft. So any storms or showers that develop
will not be able to get much height. So do not expect them to last
very long. Then after the front moves through skies will scatter
out some. Then expecting cu to redevelop during the morning hours
with some high cirrus. Winds will be southeast til the front moves
through, and then become northwest and then north-northeast tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 222016
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
VFR early this afternoon, with cold front moving in later this
evening and showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the sfc
boundary. Issues with the models...some of the shorter term higher
resolution models are actually downplaying the thunder potential.
With the amount of instability available to the boundary, and the
expected convergence along it...keeping the thunder in the TAFs
from near 00z into the evening. Winds shifting first to the east
and then to the north by morning. Timing issues abound with this
particular forecast so narrowing the time frame for the thunder is
problematic. Confidence is low and forecast is conservative as a
result.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 222016
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The main forecast concern for the next few days is a shortwave and
attendant surface cold front approaching central Illinois from the
northwest this afternoon. This will sweep across central and
southeast Illinois this evening through tonight bringing a period
of thunderstorms. Following the cold front, temperatures will
lower several degrees and humidity will decrease significantly for
Wednesday and Thursday, along with dry conditions. Chances for
thunderstorms will arrive again Friday through the weekend as
another low pressure system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday:

Cold frontal boundary moving toward the northwest corner of
Illinois is currently initiating scattered thunderstorms over
eastern Iowa. Ahead of the front, dewpoints range up to the mid to
upper 70`s yielding heat index values in the upper 90`s. This
evening the front will reach the Illinois River around mid-
evening...and southeast Illinois early Wednesday morning. A few
hours of scattered thunderstorms are likely at each location as
the feature moves through. Severe wind and hail remain as a slight
risk as a result of high surface temperature and dewpoint combined
with strong mid-level lapse rates in the region the front is
moving into. Mitigating the severe weather possibilities are a
strong cap evident in the KILX morning sounding which has
precluded convective activity from western Illinois this morning
from spreading into central Illinois.

For Wednesday...cool and dry northerly flow push into central
Illinois for drying conditions, cooler temperatures, and much less
humidity through Thursday. Nighttime temperatures should dip into
the 50`s again.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday:

A strong 500 mb low will move across the northern Plains and
Canada before moving into the great lakes region and carving out a
deep trough over the eastern U.S. through early next week.
Models fairly consistent bringing MCS remnants through Illinois
late Friday into Saturday...then a cold front arriving around
Sunday should bring another chance for thunderstorms. Yet another
round of cooler and drier conditions expected to follow for early
next week.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
VFR early this afternoon, with cold front moving in later this
evening and showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the sfc
boundary. Issues with the models...some of the shorter term higher
resolution models are actually downplaying the thunder potential.
With the amount of instability available to the boundary, and the
expected convergence along it...keeping the thunder in the TAFs
from near 00z into the evening. Winds shifting first to the east
and then to the north by morning. Timing issues abound with this
particular forecast so narrowing the time frame for the thunder is
problematic. Confidence is low and forecast is conservative as a
result.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 221753
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Cold front approaching the Midwest but an overnight disturbance to
the northwest brought some showers and thunderstorms down into the
region. IR sat imagery showing warming cloud tops and slowly
weakening thunderstorms on radar as well. Upped some of the pops
over the far west for some rainfall and sct thunder. Diurnal swing
doing well in the forecast... updated a bit for the west with
current conditions. Updates out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
VFR early this afternoon, with cold front moving in later this
evening and showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the sfc
boundary. Issues with the models...some of the shorter term higher
resolution models are actually downplaying the thunder potential.
With the amount of instability available to the boundary, and the
expected convergence along it...keeping the thunder in the TAFs
from near 00z into the evening. Winds shifting first to the east
and then to the north by morning. Timing issues abound with this
particular forecast so narrowing the time frame for the thunder is
problematic. Confidence is low and forecast is conservative as a
result.


HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221753
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Cold front approaching the Midwest but an overnight disturbance to
the northwest brought some showers and thunderstorms down into the
region. IR sat imagery showing warming cloud tops and slowly
weakening thunderstorms on radar as well. Upped some of the pops
over the far west for some rainfall and sct thunder. Diurnal swing
doing well in the forecast... updated a bit for the west with
current conditions. Updates out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
VFR early this afternoon, with cold front moving in later this
evening and showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the sfc
boundary. Issues with the models...some of the shorter term higher
resolution models are actually downplaying the thunder potential.
With the amount of instability available to the boundary, and the
expected convergence along it...keeping the thunder in the TAFs
from near 00z into the evening. Winds shifting first to the east
and then to the north by morning. Timing issues abound with this
particular forecast so narrowing the time frame for the thunder is
problematic. Confidence is low and forecast is conservative as a
result.


HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 221554
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1054 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Cold front approaching the Midwest but an overnight disturbance to
the northwest brought some showers and thunderstorms down into the
region. IR sat imagery showing warming cloud tops and slowly
weakening thunderstorms on radar as well. Upped some of the pops
over the far west for some rainfall and sct thunder. Diurnal swing
doing well in the forecast... updated a bit for the west with
current conditions. Updates out momentarily.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A dissipating line of convection approaching from the NW should
continue to weaken over the next few hours, with mainly mid clouds
drifting into central IL from that complex. Some MVFR fog at CMI
will dissipate by 13z as it has the last few mornings. Then VFR
conditions should prevail through the day and into the evening
hours.

Storm chances will increase this evening from NW to SE as a cold
front arrives. Storm coverage may be limited by the amount of warm
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, but if any storms do get
going, they could quickly become strong with winds and hail. VCTS
was included in all TAFs beginning at 01z in PIA and expanding
east to CMI at 03z. There should mainly be a 3-4 hour window of
storm chances for PIA and BMI, but farther east and south the
front may slow down and rotate slightly, keeping storm chances
through 08z-09z for the SPI/DEC/CMI corridor.

Forecast soundings are showing some low level moisture behind the
front possibly creating some MVFR ceilings for late tonight into
Wed morning.

Winds will be S-SW today, with speeds increasing to 12-14kt
sustained by late morning. As the cold front arrives from the NW,
wind speeds should diminish in the vicinity of the front to less
than 10kt, then veer to the W-NW behind the front later this
evening and overnight.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221554
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1054 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Cold front approaching the Midwest but an overnight disturbance to
the northwest brought some showers and thunderstorms down into the
region. IR sat imagery showing warming cloud tops and slowly
weakening thunderstorms on radar as well. Upped some of the pops
over the far west for some rainfall and sct thunder. Diurnal swing
doing well in the forecast... updated a bit for the west with
current conditions. Updates out momentarily.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A dissipating line of convection approaching from the NW should
continue to weaken over the next few hours, with mainly mid clouds
drifting into central IL from that complex. Some MVFR fog at CMI
will dissipate by 13z as it has the last few mornings. Then VFR
conditions should prevail through the day and into the evening
hours.

Storm chances will increase this evening from NW to SE as a cold
front arrives. Storm coverage may be limited by the amount of warm
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, but if any storms do get
going, they could quickly become strong with winds and hail. VCTS
was included in all TAFs beginning at 01z in PIA and expanding
east to CMI at 03z. There should mainly be a 3-4 hour window of
storm chances for PIA and BMI, but farther east and south the
front may slow down and rotate slightly, keeping storm chances
through 08z-09z for the SPI/DEC/CMI corridor.

Forecast soundings are showing some low level moisture behind the
front possibly creating some MVFR ceilings for late tonight into
Wed morning.

Winds will be S-SW today, with speeds increasing to 12-14kt
sustained by late morning. As the cold front arrives from the NW,
wind speeds should diminish in the vicinity of the front to less
than 10kt, then veer to the W-NW behind the front later this
evening and overnight.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 221149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A dissipating line of convection approaching from the NW should
continue to weaken over the next few hours, with mainly mid clouds
drifting into central IL from that complex. Some MVFR fog at CMI
will dissipate by 13z as it has the last few mornings. Then VFR
conditions should prevail through the day and into the evening
hours.

Storm chances will increase this evening from NW to SE as a cold
front arrives. Storm coverage may be limited by the amount of warm
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, but if any storms do get
going, they could quickly become strong with winds and hail. VCTS
was included in all TAFs beginning at 01z in PIA and expanding
east to CMI at 03z. There should mainly be a 3-4 hour window of
storm chances for PIA and BMI, but farther east and south the
front may slow down and rotate slightly, keeping storm chances
through 08z-09z for the SPI/DEC/CMI corridor.

Forecast soundings are showing some low level moisture behind the
front possibly creating some MVFR ceilings for late tonight into
Wed morning.

Winds will be S-SW today, with speeds increasing to 12-14kt
sustained by late morning. As the cold front arrives from the NW,
wind speeds should diminish in the vicinity of the front to less
than 10kt, then veer to the W-NW behind the front later this
evening and overnight.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

A dissipating line of convection approaching from the NW should
continue to weaken over the next few hours, with mainly mid clouds
drifting into central IL from that complex. Some MVFR fog at CMI
will dissipate by 13z as it has the last few mornings. Then VFR
conditions should prevail through the day and into the evening
hours.

Storm chances will increase this evening from NW to SE as a cold
front arrives. Storm coverage may be limited by the amount of warm
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, but if any storms do get
going, they could quickly become strong with winds and hail. VCTS
was included in all TAFs beginning at 01z in PIA and expanding
east to CMI at 03z. There should mainly be a 3-4 hour window of
storm chances for PIA and BMI, but farther east and south the
front may slow down and rotate slightly, keeping storm chances
through 08z-09z for the SPI/DEC/CMI corridor.

Forecast soundings are showing some low level moisture behind the
front possibly creating some MVFR ceilings for late tonight into
Wed morning.

Winds will be S-SW today, with speeds increasing to 12-14kt
sustained by late morning. As the cold front arrives from the NW,
wind speeds should diminish in the vicinity of the front to less
than 10kt, then veer to the W-NW behind the front later this
evening and overnight.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 220758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.


SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.


LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

MVFR vsbys possible in ground fog again late tonight, roughly in
the 09z-13z time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions will persist
thru the forecast period. Best threat for fog, at least based on
the latest temp-dew point spreads appears to be along and east
of I-55, which would encompass BMI, DEC and CMI. Latest HRRR
forecast hitting the lower vsbys the hardest from MTO to DEC
to just east of BMI by morning. What fog the does form during
the early morning hours should be gone by 13z most areas. After
that, some mid and high level clouds will track in from the
west but it now appears the showers that models were depicting
earlier this evening out to our west by dawn will stay west of our
TAF sites.

Secondary concern will be in the 00z-06z time frame as a cold
front shifts across the area and TSRA chances along it. At this
time, with such warm temperatures aloft, it appears that
thunderstorm coverage will be too limited at this point. As a
result, will include VCTS at the TAF sites during the time frame
that the front will be moving thru. Surface winds will be out of
the southeast at 5 to 8 kts overnight and then turn into the
south and southwest tomorrow at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional
higher gust during the afternoon. Winds should diminish quickly
towards evening and then gradually turn into more of a southwest
to west direction at 5 to 10 kts.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KILX 220758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Clear skies once again across the forecast area early this
morning, with some shallow dense fog mainly along the Indiana
border. An advancing area of mid/high clouds was ahead of the main
frontal boundary, which extends from an MCS in northeast Minnesota
southwest into Nebraska.

Initial forecast concerns involve the heat index across the
northwest CWA today, and rain chances tonight/Wednesday morning.
Longer range, the timing of rain chances through the weekend comes
into play.


SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday:

2 am surface analysis showing 70-75 degree dew points not too far
away across Iowa and northwest Missouri. Should start to see some
of this coming into the areas along/northwest of the Illinois
River by late morning. With highs in the lower 90s, heat index
values of 100-105 are likely in that area. This is just shy of
advisory criteria, and with some question as to how much the
incoming clouds will affect the temperatures, will hold off on any
advisory for now.

Cold front expected to arrive in the northwest CWA mid to late
evening, and be through nearly all of the forecast area before mid
morning Wednesday. Strength of the cap appears to limit much of
the convection until the front is nearly on top of us. SPC 4km WRF
and ARW models, as well as the NAM, show the best chances of
storms developing over northern Missouri and and perhaps clipping
our far southwest counties as they track southeast. Looks like
best chances for rain in our area should be focused in the 9 pm to
4 am time frame. Rather healthy CAPE`s will be available but shear
will be a little more modest, so severe weather threat is a bit
lower this far south. Think the rain should be limited to areas
along/south of I-70 by morning, and out of the forecast area by
midday.


LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday:

Upper ridging expected to amplify across the Rockies through late
week, before being squashed by a strong 500 mb low which will be
coming into the Pacific Northwest beginning on Wednesday. This
should become an open wave late in the weekend by the time it
starts heading our way. Broad trough across the Midwest will bring
much drier conditions late week with temperatures well below
normal, but not as cool as the peak of the last cool spell. More
of a cooling trend will become established next week as a large
upper low settles into the Midwest.

Dry conditions expected Thursday, but an MCS is expected to form
Thursday night to our northwest along the 850 mb thermal gradient
over Iowa, dropping southeast. Thinking this should stay northwest
of our area until the remnants arrive on Friday. Better rain
chances expected with the next MCS Friday night and Saturday, as
the surface warm front becomes pronounced over the area. Sunday
is a little more questionable with rain chances, but some 30%
chances are warranted with the arrival of a cool front.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

MVFR vsbys possible in ground fog again late tonight, roughly in
the 09z-13z time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions will persist
thru the forecast period. Best threat for fog, at least based on
the latest temp-dew point spreads appears to be along and east
of I-55, which would encompass BMI, DEC and CMI. Latest HRRR
forecast hitting the lower vsbys the hardest from MTO to DEC
to just east of BMI by morning. What fog the does form during
the early morning hours should be gone by 13z most areas. After
that, some mid and high level clouds will track in from the
west but it now appears the showers that models were depicting
earlier this evening out to our west by dawn will stay west of our
TAF sites.

Secondary concern will be in the 00z-06z time frame as a cold
front shifts across the area and TSRA chances along it. At this
time, with such warm temperatures aloft, it appears that
thunderstorm coverage will be too limited at this point. As a
result, will include VCTS at the TAF sites during the time frame
that the front will be moving thru. Surface winds will be out of
the southeast at 5 to 8 kts overnight and then turn into the
south and southwest tomorrow at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional
higher gust during the afternoon. Winds should diminish quickly
towards evening and then gradually turn into more of a southwest
to west direction at 5 to 10 kts.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 220417
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Hazy, warm and humid conditions prevail over a good portion of the
region this evening with the main thunderstorm activity well to our
north across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Watching a band
of mid level clouds now over Iowa which short term models suggest
may develop into some elevated showers and storms over parts of
Iowa as the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence increases
as the night wears on. 00z ILX sounding showing a fairly decent
warm layer in place already around 700 mb with our temperature near
+12 degrees while Davenports was up to +14 degrees C. Most models
suggest any of the elevated storms that do develop out to our west
will be fighting an uphill battle as the 500 mb ridge temporarily
builds east into central Illinois and forecast soundings continue
to show a stought capping inversion in place tomorrow morning. What
activity that is able to develop well out to our west will probably
not make it into western Illinois tomorrow morning so will continue
to keep the forecast dry late tonight into Tuesday morning.

00z surface analysis indicating 75 to 80 degree dew points out over
west central Iowa into Minnesota ahead of the cold front that is
forecast to push across our area tomorrow evening. The pooling of
the higher dew points is expected across our area tomorrow afternoon
and evening just ahead of the boundary. The combination of afternoon
temps in the lower 90s and surface dew points expected to be at
least in the low to mid 70s, our apparent temperatures will soar
into the 97 to 102 degree range by mid afternoon thru the early
evening hours. Since this is the first time we have seen the more
widespread high apparent temps this Summer, in addition to coming
off a stretch of cooler temperatures over the past 3-5 days, will
issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting the threats from
the high heat and humidity levels.

Have made only minor tweaks to the current forecast for the overnight
hours, not enough to warrant an updated ZFP this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

MVFR vsbys possible in ground fog again late tonight, roughly in
the 09z-13z time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions will persist
thru the forecast period. Best threat for fog, at least based on
the latest temp-dew point spreads appears to be along and east
of I-55, which would encompass BMI, DEC and CMI. Latest HRRR
forecast hitting the lower vsbys the hardest from MTO to DEC
to just east of BMI by morning. What fog the does form during
the early morning hours should be gone by 13z most areas. After
that, some mid and high level clouds will track in from the
west but it now appears the showers that models were depicting
earlier this evening out to our west by dawn will stay west of our
TAF sites.

Secondary concern will be in the 00z-06z time frame as a cold
front shifts across the area and TSRA chances along it. At this
time, with such warm temperatures aloft, it appears that
thunderstorm coverage will be too limited at this point. As a
result, will include VCTS at the TAF sites during the time frame
that the front will be moving thru. Surface winds will be out of
the southeast at 5 to 8 kts overnight and then turn into the
south and southwest tomorrow at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional
higher gust during the afternoon. Winds should diminish quickly
towards evening and then gradually turn into more of a southwest
to west direction at 5 t 10 kts.

Smith
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KILX 220417
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Hazy, warm and humid conditions prevail over a good portion of the
region this evening with the main thunderstorm activity well to our
north across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Watching a band
of mid level clouds now over Iowa which short term models suggest
may develop into some elevated showers and storms over parts of
Iowa as the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence increases
as the night wears on. 00z ILX sounding showing a fairly decent
warm layer in place already around 700 mb with our temperature near
+12 degrees while Davenports was up to +14 degrees C. Most models
suggest any of the elevated storms that do develop out to our west
will be fighting an uphill battle as the 500 mb ridge temporarily
builds east into central Illinois and forecast soundings continue
to show a stought capping inversion in place tomorrow morning. What
activity that is able to develop well out to our west will probably
not make it into western Illinois tomorrow morning so will continue
to keep the forecast dry late tonight into Tuesday morning.

00z surface analysis indicating 75 to 80 degree dew points out over
west central Iowa into Minnesota ahead of the cold front that is
forecast to push across our area tomorrow evening. The pooling of
the higher dew points is expected across our area tomorrow afternoon
and evening just ahead of the boundary. The combination of afternoon
temps in the lower 90s and surface dew points expected to be at
least in the low to mid 70s, our apparent temperatures will soar
into the 97 to 102 degree range by mid afternoon thru the early
evening hours. Since this is the first time we have seen the more
widespread high apparent temps this Summer, in addition to coming
off a stretch of cooler temperatures over the past 3-5 days, will
issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting the threats from
the high heat and humidity levels.

Have made only minor tweaks to the current forecast for the overnight
hours, not enough to warrant an updated ZFP this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

MVFR vsbys possible in ground fog again late tonight, roughly in
the 09z-13z time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions will persist
thru the forecast period. Best threat for fog, at least based on
the latest temp-dew point spreads appears to be along and east
of I-55, which would encompass BMI, DEC and CMI. Latest HRRR
forecast hitting the lower vsbys the hardest from MTO to DEC
to just east of BMI by morning. What fog the does form during
the early morning hours should be gone by 13z most areas. After
that, some mid and high level clouds will track in from the
west but it now appears the showers that models were depicting
earlier this evening out to our west by dawn will stay west of our
TAF sites.

Secondary concern will be in the 00z-06z time frame as a cold
front shifts across the area and TSRA chances along it. At this
time, with such warm temperatures aloft, it appears that
thunderstorm coverage will be too limited at this point. As a
result, will include VCTS at the TAF sites during the time frame
that the front will be moving thru. Surface winds will be out of
the southeast at 5 to 8 kts overnight and then turn into the
south and southwest tomorrow at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional
higher gust during the afternoon. Winds should diminish quickly
towards evening and then gradually turn into more of a southwest
to west direction at 5 t 10 kts.

Smith
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 220200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Hazy, warm and humid conditions prevail over a good portion of the
region this evening with the main thunderstorm activity well to our
north across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Watching a band
of mid level clouds now over Iowa which short term models suggest
may develop into some elevated showers and storms over parts of
Iowa as the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence increases
as the night wears on. 00z ILX sounding showing a fairly decent
warm layer in place already around 700 mb with our temperature near
+12 degrees while Davenports was up to +14 degrees C. Most models
suggest any of the elevated storms that do develop out to our west
will be fighting an uphill battle as the 500 mb ridge temporarily
builds east into central Illinois and forecast soundings continue
to show a stought capping inversion in place tomorrow morning. What
activity that is able to develop well out to our west will probably
not make it into western Illinois tomorrow morning so will continue
to keep the forecast dry late tonight into Tuesday morning.

00z surface analysis indicating 75 to 80 degree dew points out over
west central Iowa into Minnesota ahead of the cold front that is
forecast to push across our area tomorrow evening. The pooling of
the higher dew points is expected across our area tomorrow afternoon
and evening just ahead of the boundary. The combination of afternoon
temps in the lower 90s and surface dew points expected to be at
least in the low to mid 70s, our apparent temperatures will soar
into the 97 to 102 degree range by mid afternoon thru the early
evening hours. Since this is the first time we have seen the more
widespread high apparent temps this Summer, in addition to coming
off a stretch of cooler temperatures over the past 3-5 days, will
issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting the threats from
the high heat and humidity levels.

Have made only minor tweaks to the current forecast for the overnight
hours, not enough to warrant an updated ZFP this evening.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

May see a few hours of MVFR vsbys in ground fog in the 09z-12z
time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF
period. Rather quiet weather expected into tomorrow morning then
we will have to see if any showers develop out west of the
Mississippi River as a few of the short term models suggest. For
now will just introduce a mid level cloud band over PIA as support
for any shower activity will remain to our west tomorrow morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts tonight and increase
from the south to between 12 and 17 kts by afternoon with a few
gusts possible. It appears our best chances for scattered TSRA
will be as a cold front moves thru the area just after this
forecast period (00z Wed).

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 220200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Hazy, warm and humid conditions prevail over a good portion of the
region this evening with the main thunderstorm activity well to our
north across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Watching a band
of mid level clouds now over Iowa which short term models suggest
may develop into some elevated showers and storms over parts of
Iowa as the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence increases
as the night wears on. 00z ILX sounding showing a fairly decent
warm layer in place already around 700 mb with our temperature near
+12 degrees while Davenports was up to +14 degrees C. Most models
suggest any of the elevated storms that do develop out to our west
will be fighting an uphill battle as the 500 mb ridge temporarily
builds east into central Illinois and forecast soundings continue
to show a stought capping inversion in place tomorrow morning. What
activity that is able to develop well out to our west will probably
not make it into western Illinois tomorrow morning so will continue
to keep the forecast dry late tonight into Tuesday morning.

00z surface analysis indicating 75 to 80 degree dew points out over
west central Iowa into Minnesota ahead of the cold front that is
forecast to push across our area tomorrow evening. The pooling of
the higher dew points is expected across our area tomorrow afternoon
and evening just ahead of the boundary. The combination of afternoon
temps in the lower 90s and surface dew points expected to be at
least in the low to mid 70s, our apparent temperatures will soar
into the 97 to 102 degree range by mid afternoon thru the early
evening hours. Since this is the first time we have seen the more
widespread high apparent temps this Summer, in addition to coming
off a stretch of cooler temperatures over the past 3-5 days, will
issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting the threats from
the high heat and humidity levels.

Have made only minor tweaks to the current forecast for the overnight
hours, not enough to warrant an updated ZFP this evening.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

May see a few hours of MVFR vsbys in ground fog in the 09z-12z
time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF
period. Rather quiet weather expected into tomorrow morning then
we will have to see if any showers develop out west of the
Mississippi River as a few of the short term models suggest. For
now will just introduce a mid level cloud band over PIA as support
for any shower activity will remain to our west tomorrow morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts tonight and increase
from the south to between 12 and 17 kts by afternoon with a few
gusts possible. It appears our best chances for scattered TSRA
will be as a cold front moves thru the area just after this
forecast period (00z Wed).

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KILX 212318
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

May see a few hours of MVFR vsbys in ground fog in the 09z-12z
time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF
period. Rather quiet weather expected into tomorrow morning then
we will have to see if any showers develop out west of the
Mississippi River as a few of the short term models suggest. For
now will just introduce a mid level cloud band over PIA as support
for any shower activity will remain to our west tomorrow morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts tonight and increase
from the south to between 12 and 17 kts by afternoon with a few
gusts possible. It appears our best chances for scattered TSRA
will be as a cold front moves thru the area just after this
forecast period (00z Wed).

Smith
&&


.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 212318
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Temperatures and dewpoints are up several degrees across central
and Southeast Illinois since 24 hours ago as high pressure builds
into the region along with southerly low level flow.
Forecast/observed soundings show a strong capping inversion around
4000 feet agl keeping scattered cumulus cloud development shallow.
For Tuesday...the inversion remains strong for most of the day as
low level moisture and temperature peak out with heat index values
around 96 to 100 degrees affect the region. In the evening, a cold
front will approach from the north bringing mid-level cooling and
surface convergence to erode the capping inversion. A line of
thunderstorms is likely to move across the region as a result,
affecting areas mainly north of I-72 in the evening and sweeping
across I-70 and areas southward by Wednesday morning. Timing of
the front overnight will reduce the threat of severe thunderstorms
with the line, however CAPE/shear values associated with the system
as it approaches suggest isolated severe wind gusts and hail can`t
be ruled out yet. Cooler and drier high pressure pushes into the
region behind this system for Wednesday and Thursday for highs
generally around 80.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Friday before a
stronger low pressure system moves over the top of the
ridge...initially bringing warmer and more humid conditions and a
chance for thunderstorms Saturday. By Sunday, the low will help
carve out a deep low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. late in
the weekend and into next week. Timing of precipitation features
headed for the area next weekend is far from certain at this time,
between potential MCS activity early in the weekend and a cold
front late in the weekend. Have broadbrushed this with chance to
slight chance category PoP`s Friday night through Monday.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

May see a few hours of MVFR vsbys in ground fog in the 09z-12z
time frame, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF
period. Rather quiet weather expected into tomorrow morning then
we will have to see if any showers develop out west of the
Mississippi River as a few of the short term models suggest. For
now will just introduce a mid level cloud band over PIA as support
for any shower activity will remain to our west tomorrow morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts tonight and increase
from the south to between 12 and 17 kts by afternoon with a few
gusts possible. It appears our best chances for scattered TSRA
will be as a cold front moves thru the area just after this
forecast period (00z Wed).

Smith
&&


.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities