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000
FXUS63 KILX 251939
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
239 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Weak frontal boundary continues to settle southward toward the Ohio
River this afternoon, allowing a drier airmass to trickle in from
the northwest.  18z/1pm dewpoints across Iowa are only in the middle
to upper 30s, and this airmass will arrive across central Illinois
tonight.  Upstream satellite imagery and forecast soundings indicate
clear skies beneath building high pressure tonight, resulting in
excellent radiational cooling.  Have therefore undercut MAV guidance
by a couple of degrees, with lows dipping into the lower to middle
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Very pleasant weather expected through Monday and then a deep trof
and associated frontal system will affect the area late Monday into
Tuesday bringing shower chances to the region. Some very chilly air
poised to our north by the end of the week which may bring our first
widespread freeze of the season to parts of central and east central
Illinois next weekend.

High pressure will settle into the area for Sunday bringing in slightly
cooler temperatures, especially to the north and east where afternoon
readings will approach 70, while further south and west the mercury
will rise into the middle 70s. A warm front is slated to push northeast
across the area Sunday evening with the better lift and elevated
instability forecast to be across the lower Great Lakes, so will continue
to keep rain chances out of the grids with an increasing southerly wind
helping to keep overnight lows quite mild for the end of October. Most
of the operational models agree with the faster solution with respect
to the frontal timing across our area on Tuesday. With the more progressive
trend to the system, deeper moisture will not have a chance to get this
far north ahead of the front late Monday night into Tuesday, however,
still enough mid and upper level forcing associated with the deep 500
mb trof to set off some showers with most unstable capes of up to 500
J/KG just ahead of the front, so will continue to hold on to some isolated
convection Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models sweep the front
to our east by early afternoon with an impressive mid level dry slot
surging across central Illinois Tuesday afternoon taking the precip
and cloud cover well to our east.

Fairly cool 850 mb temperatures seen on models in the wake of
Tuesday`s system, so after the unseasonably warm temperatures
tomorrow and Monday, we should see temps closer to or even below
normal by Wednesday afternoon. The next weather system will track
southeast out of the northern Plains on Thursday with little in
the way of moisture available with it to produce much in the way
of rainfall in our area. Low chance POPs will be just to our west
late Wednesday night with slight chances for our area on Thursday
as the weak clipper like system shifts across central Illinois
during the day. The shortwave will effectively deepen in the
longwave trof over the Great Lakes which will usher in some of the
coolest air of the Fall season so far later Friday and Saturday.
Very good model agreement with respect to 850 temp forecasts for
the end of the week with both the operational GFS and latest ECMWF
indicating -6 to -10 degrees C by late Friday into Saturday, which
will translate to highs struggling to get out of the 40s across
the north and east on Friday and Saturday with early morning lows
of 30 ot 35 degrees, with a few of our "colder" locations possibly
dipping into the upper 20s Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period as
high pressure builds into the region. Winds will initially be from
the NW at 5 to 10kt this afternoon, then will become light/variable
tonight into Sunday morning. As the high begins to shift off to
the east, winds will become E/SE toward midday Sunday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes






000
FXUS63 KILX 251722
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Dense fog has once again developed across west-central Illinois
this morning, with 14z/9am obs showing visibilities of 1/4 mile or
less along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. Weak
cold front is approaching the I-55 corridor: however, the drier
airmass lags well behind the boundary across central/northern
Iowa. Dry advection will eventually help erode the northern edge
of the fog area, while the rising sun will help get rid of the fog
as well. With dry air only slowly trickling in, think fog will
stick around until mid to late morning, much like what happened
yesterday morning. As a result, have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until midday. Have also expanded it southeastward to
include Bloomington-Normal and Jacksonville. Once drier air
arrives and sun angle gets higher, fog/low clouds will rapidly
dissipate between 16z and 17z, followed by sunny skies for the
balance of the day. Further east, mostly sunny conditions will
prevail for the entire day across east-central and southeast
Illinois. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s across
the board.  Forecast update has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.

Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period as
high pressure builds into the region. Winds will initially be from
the NW at 5 to 10kt this afternoon, then will become light/variable
tonight into Sunday morning. As the high begins to shift off to
the east, winds will become E/SE toward midday Sunday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 251415
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Dense fog has once again developed across west-central Illinois
this morning, with 14z/9am obs showing visibilities of 1/4 mile or
less along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. Weak
cold front is approaching the I-55 corridor: however, the drier
airmass lags well behind the boundary across central/northern
Iowa. Dry advection will eventually help erode the northern edge
of the fog area, while the rising sun will help get rid of the fog
as well. With dry air only slowly trickling in, think fog will
stick around until mid to late morning, much like what happened
yesterday morning. As a result, have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until midday. Have also expanded it southeastward to
include Bloomington-Normal and Jacksonville. Once drier air
arrives and sun angle gets higher, fog/low clouds will rapidly
dissipate between 16z and 17z, followed by sunny skies for the
balance of the day. Further east, mostly sunny conditions will
prevail for the entire day across east-central and southeast
Illinois. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s across
the board.  Forecast update has already been issued.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.

Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040-041-047>050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 251138
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.

Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 251138
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.

Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 250821
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.

Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Mainly VFR conditions continue across central/SE Illinois late
this evening as a shortwave trough and weak cold front moves
across the region, bringing cigs just above 3 kft AGL. This
feature will move off to the east overnight, then clearing of the
cloud cover will allow fog to develop overnight. Given a similar
air mass to last night and winds expected to become light/variable
in the vicinity of the trough, vsbys between 1 and 3 miles
included for most central Illinois TAF locations, with LIFR
category included for KPIA. Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10
kts expected after 14Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 250450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Dense fog advisory issued for areas west of the Illinois River. As
a shortwave trough moves off to the southeast late tonight,
clearing skies should allow good radiational cooling to resume in
a slightly moister air mass, bringing a good scenario for fog
formation. Observations of very low visibilities in fog over
eastern Iowa indicate west central Illinois should develop dense
fog overnight as the clearing sets in. Later updates may be
needed to adjust for fog coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Mainly VFR conditions continue across central/SE Illinois late
this evening as a shortwave trough and weak cold front moves
across the region, bringing cigs just above 3 kft AGL. This
feature will move off to the east overnight, then clearing of the
cloud cover will allow fog to develop overnight. Given a similar
air mass to last night and winds expected to become light/variable
in the vicinity of the trough, vsbys between 1 and 3 miles
included for most central Illinois TAF locations, with LIFR
category included for KPIA. Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10
kts expected after 14Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 250159
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A shortwave trough is moving southeastward into central Illinois
this evening bringing back low cloudiness from about Lincoln
northwestward...to spread southeast over the next few hours. This
should prevent temperatures from falling much further for a while
tonight, but otherwise little impact as precipitation detection by
radar or surface observations is almost absent as it moves into
the area. Once this feature moves off to the southeast late
tonight, clearing skies should allow good radiational cooling to
resume in a slightly moister air mass, bringing a good scenario
for fog formation overnight. Current forecasts are in good shape
with the cloud cover initially and subsequent fog development.
Later updates may be needed to adjust for fog coverage and
thickness. Have made minor adjustments for low temperatures with
evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR conditions are in place across central/SE Illinois this
evening. A shortwave trough and weak cold front approaching from
the northwest is likely to bring a few hours of MVFR ceilings in
the late evening until early morning. Once this feature passes
through, clearing of the cloud cover will allow fog to develop
toward dawn. Given a similar air mass to last night and winds
expected to become light/variable in the vicinity of the trough,
have reduced vsbys to between 1 and 3 miles at the central
Illinois TAF locations, although some potential exists for
visibilities to drop into LIFR category or worse, mainly for KPIA.
Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10 kts expected after 14Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 242338
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR conditions are in place across central/SE Illinois this
evening. A shortwave trough and weak cold front approaching from
the northwest is likely to bring a few hours of MVFR ceilings in
the late evening until early morning. Once this feature passes
through, clearing of the cloud cover will allow fog to develop
toward dawn. Given a similar air mass to last night and winds
expected to become light/variable in the vicinity of the trough,
have reduced vsbys to between 1 and 3 miles at the central
Illinois TAF locations, although some potential exists for
visibilities to drop into LIFR category or worse, mainly for KPIA.
Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10 kts expected after 14Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 242011
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 241950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder and the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 241950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville.  Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening.  Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place.  With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop.  HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville.  Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.

Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.

A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be  sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.

A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.

The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder and the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 241757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.

Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 241543
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.

Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041-047>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 241144
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.

Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 240736
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.

Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
SCT-BKN025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 240441
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The upper level trough axis of weak storm system is crossing
Illinois this evening with isolated light showers and virga
detected by radar just ahead of the axis over central Illinois.
Behind the trough axis, mid-level clouds can be seen on satellite
rapidly dissipating over western Illinois, however low clouds
continue. Any additional clearing will likely be replaced by fog
formation overnight. The system will continue to move east, with
any showers likely to end by early morning eastward to the IL/IN
state line, after little or no rainfall accumulation. Patchy fog
is included in overnight forecast from near the Illinois River
westward. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper 40s at
most locations. Current forecast is still on track with these
features and only updates have been to convert slight chance PoPs
to isolated showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas.  Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois.  Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west.  Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development.  Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight.  Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best.  Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.  Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn.  Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight.  HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.

Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.

Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
sct-bkn025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton









000
FXUS63 KILX 240141
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
841 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The upper level trough axis of weak storm system is crossing
Illinois this evening with isolated light showers and virga
detected by radar just ahead of the axis over central Illinois.
Behind the trough axis, mid-level clouds can be seen on satellite
rapidly dissipating over western Illinois, however low clouds
continue. Any additional clearing will likely be replaced by fog
formation overnight. The system will continue to move east, with
any showers likely to end by early morning eastward to the IL/IN
state line, after little or no rainfall accumulation. Patchy fog
is included in overnight forecast from near the Illinois River
westward. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper 40s at
most locations. Current forecast is still on track with these
features and only updates have been to convert slight chance PoPs
to isolated showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas.  Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois.  Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west.  Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development.  Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight.  Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best.  Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.  Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn.  Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight.  HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.

Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.

Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A band of isold -SHRA with mainly VFR vsby/cigs spreading eastward
through central Illinois this evening. Local MVFR cigs likely to
develop a few hours after shower activity arrives. This band
expected to move slowly across the state with showers ending
around 3Z-5Z in west-central IL and 8-10Z in east-central IL. Low
level moisture will linger after precipitation ends, allowing
areas of fog and low cloud to continue, especially west of the
Illinois River. Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however
potential for dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites.
Daytime heating expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday
leaving cloud cover sct-bkn025 through afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 232325
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas.  Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois.  Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west.  Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development.  Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight.  Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best.  Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.  Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn.  Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight.  HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.

Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.

Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A band of isold -SHRA with mainly VFR vsby/cigs spreading eastward
through central Illinois this evening. Local MVFR cigs likely to
develop a few hours after shower activity arrives. This band
expected to move slowly across the state with showers ending
around 3Z-5Z in west-central IL and 8-10Z in east-central IL. Low
level moisture will linger after precipitation ends, allowing
areas of fog and low cloud to continue, especially west of the
Illinois River. Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however
potential for dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites.
Daytime heating expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday
leaving cloud cover sct-bkn025 through afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 231957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas.  Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois.  Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west.  Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development.  Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight.  Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best.  Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.  Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn.  Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight.  HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.

Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.

Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes






000
FXUS63 KILX 231957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas.  Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois.  Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west.  Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development.  Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight.  Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best.  Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.  Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn.  Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight.  HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.

Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.

Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes






000
FXUS63 KILX 231755
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Morning surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary across the
Plains, accompanied by a band of clouds and light showers from
Missouri northeastward into western Wisconsin. Airmass ahead of
this system is very dry, as shown by the 12z KILX upper air
sounding. As a result, precip will have a difficult time
spreading/developing eastward. Latest radar trends continue to
show a decrease in precip areal coverage across northern/central
Missouri, so have updated PoPs to slow the eastward progression of
the rain chances. Will continue to carry just slight chance PoPs
west of I-57 this afternoon. Further east, precip will hold off
until evening. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, only
amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 231755
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Morning surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary across the
Plains, accompanied by a band of clouds and light showers from
Missouri northeastward into western Wisconsin. Airmass ahead of
this system is very dry, as shown by the 12z KILX upper air
sounding. As a result, precip will have a difficult time
spreading/developing eastward. Latest radar trends continue to
show a decrease in precip areal coverage across northern/central
Missouri, so have updated PoPs to slow the eastward progression of
the rain chances. Will continue to carry just slight chance PoPs
west of I-57 this afternoon. Further east, precip will hold off
until evening. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, only
amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 231542
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Morning surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary across the
Plains, accompanied by a band of clouds and light showers from
Missouri northeastward into western Wisconsin. Airmass ahead of
this system is very dry, as shown by the 12z KILX upper air
sounding. As a result, precip will have a difficult time
spreading/developing eastward. Latest radar trends continue to
show a decrease in precip areal coverage across northern/central
Missouri, so have updated PoPs to slow the eastward progression of
the rain chances. Will continue to carry just slight chance PoPs
west of I-57 this afternoon. Further east, precip will hold off
until evening. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, only
amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A decaying frontal boundary will approach the central Illinois
terminal area today. Spotty showers will exist along/ahead of the
front. However, due to the weakening nature of the system and dry
airmass currently in place, precipitation coverage should
continue to decrease as the front moves east. With this in mind,
have only included a VCSH mention at KPIA, with dry conditions
expected to prevail elsewhere. VFR conditions are likely until the
frontal zone arrives tonight, when MVFR cigs and patchy MVFR vsbys
in fog are likely.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 231134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
634 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A decaying frontal boundary will approach the central Illinois
terminal area today. Spotty showers will exist along/ahead of the
front. However, due to the weakening nature of the system and dry
airmass currently in place, precipitation coverage should
continue to decrease as the front moves east. With this in mind,
have only included a VCSH mention at KPIA, with dry conditions
expected to prevail elsewhere. VFR conditions are likely until the
frontal zone arrives tonight, when MVFR cigs and patchy MVFR vsbys
in fog are likely.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 230808
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-5 kts increasing
to S 8-10g15 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty. Precipitation ending KPIA-KSPI westward as
early as 00Z Friday, ending throughout central IL by 06Z. Low
ceilings approaching MVFR thresholds continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 230808
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-5 kts increasing
to S 8-10g15 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty. Precipitation ending KPIA-KSPI westward as
early as 00Z Friday, ending throughout central IL by 06Z. Low
ceilings approaching MVFR thresholds continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 230432
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge axis will cross Illinois
tonight, becoming increasingly narrow as a fast moving shortwave
approaches from the northern Plains while a deep low over the East
Coast is slow to move. Light southeasterly winds will slowly turn
southerly and increase toward morning as surface pressure
gradients increase with the approaching wave. Temperatures
primarily in the 40s already this evening will only drop into the
upper 30s to around 40 as a result of increasing wind and high
cloud cover spreading into Illinois. The approaching shortwave
will spread cloud cover and chances for light rain showers mainly
from around I-72 northward in the afternoon and evening Thursday.
Current forecast is on track with these features and no
significant updates needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

High pressure ridge over the Midwest this afternoon slowly shifting
eastward with the winds slowly taking on an increasingly
south/southeasterly direction.  Winds through the overnight will
continue to be light, but will help advect warmer air into the
area.  However, location of the ridge axis closer to the Indiana
border with lighter winds will result in lower temps east of I-57.
Low lying areas may see some areas of frost as well in the pre dawn
hours.  Not as concerned in the west where lows will only dip into
the lower 40s.  Approaching system from the west slowing
considerably and precip chances not in the forecast before 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The short/medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
progressive upper level through the weekend. Differences start to
appear by early next week with the next significant precipitation
producing system.

Upper level troughing from the High Plains will approach the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday, with a weakening trend the
farther east it advances into surface and upper level ridging. Based
on the 12Z upper air analysis from today, there is very little deep
moisture associated with this system. Moisture advection and
isentropic lift will be quite weak, so the window of opportunity for
rain tomorrow should be pretty short. Scaled back on the rain
chances as a result, with 30-40 PoPs mainly along and west of the
Illinois River during the afternoon - spreading toward BMI-CMI-
Lincoln toward early evening. The clouds and spotty rain showers
will keep temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal normals Thursday.

Trimmed temperatures a bit for Friday as some low level moisture
with a light southerly flow ahead of weak shortwave trough should
produce a few more clouds as the day progresses, especially west of
the I-55 corridor. The weekend is expected to be mild with plenty of
sunshine as ridging at the surface and aloft moves toward the
Midwest. Low level warm advection Saturday will allow highs to reach
the lower 70s in most areas, although readings will be a few degrees
cooler on Sunday as the surface ridge axis moves over Illinois. A
return, southerly flow on Monday will give us unseasonably warm
readings in the 72-76 range across the forecast area.

The model differences mainly revolve around the strength and
amplitude of an upper level trough moving out of the Plains Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a phased northern/southern stream system which
moves at a steady pace through the Midwest Tuesday. The European
model has a much stronger southern stream system, which develops a
surface low on the cold front, which then tracks into central IL by
early Wednesday which gives us heavier rainfall and precipitation
chances into Thursday morning. At this time, prefer the more
progressive/phased GFS model, and will keep the forecast dry for
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-5 kts increasing
to S 8-10g15 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty. Precipitation ending KPIA-KSPI westward as
early as 00Z Friday, ending throughout central IL by 06Z. Low
ceilings approaching MVFR thresholds continuing.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 230432
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge axis will cross Illinois
tonight, becoming increasingly narrow as a fast moving shortwave
approaches from the northern Plains while a deep low over the East
Coast is slow to move. Light southeasterly winds will slowly turn
southerly and increase toward morning as surface pressure
gradients increase with the approaching wave. Temperatures
primarily in the 40s already this evening will only drop into the
upper 30s to around 40 as a result of increasing wind and high
cloud cover spreading into Illinois. The approaching shortwave
will spread cloud cover and chances for light rain showers mainly
from around I-72 northward in the afternoon and evening Thursday.
Current forecast is on track with these features and no
significant updates needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

High pressure ridge over the Midwest this afternoon slowly shifting
eastward with the winds slowly taking on an increasingly
south/southeasterly direction.  Winds through the overnight will
continue to be light, but will help advect warmer air into the
area.  However, location of the ridge axis closer to the Indiana
border with lighter winds will result in lower temps east of I-57.
Low lying areas may see some areas of frost as well in the pre dawn
hours.  Not as concerned in the west where lows will only dip into
the lower 40s.  Approaching system from the west slowing
considerably and precip chances not in the forecast before 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The short/medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
progressive upper level through the weekend. Differences start to
appear by early next week with the next significant precipitation
producing system.

Upper level troughing from the High Plains will approach the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday, with a weakening trend the
farther east it advances into surface and upper level ridging. Based
on the 12Z upper air analysis from today, there is very little deep
moisture associated with this system. Moisture advection and
isentropic lift will be quite weak, so the window of opportunity for
rain tomorrow should be pretty short. Scaled back on the rain
chances as a result, with 30-40 PoPs mainly along and west of the
Illinois River during the afternoon - spreading toward BMI-CMI-
Lincoln toward early evening. The clouds and spotty rain showers
will keep temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal normals Thursday.

Trimmed temperatures a bit for Friday as some low level moisture
with a light southerly flow ahead of weak shortwave trough should
produce a few more clouds as the day progresses, especially west of
the I-55 corridor. The weekend is expected to be mild with plenty of
sunshine as ridging at the surface and aloft moves toward the
Midwest. Low level warm advection Saturday will allow highs to reach
the lower 70s in most areas, although readings will be a few degrees
cooler on Sunday as the surface ridge axis moves over Illinois. A
return, southerly flow on Monday will give us unseasonably warm
readings in the 72-76 range across the forecast area.

The model differences mainly revolve around the strength and
amplitude of an upper level trough moving out of the Plains Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a phased northern/southern stream system which
moves at a steady pace through the Midwest Tuesday. The European
model has a much stronger southern stream system, which develops a
surface low on the cold front, which then tracks into central IL by
early Wednesday which gives us heavier rainfall and precipitation
chances into Thursday morning. At this time, prefer the more
progressive/phased GFS model, and will keep the forecast dry for
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-5 kts increasing
to S 8-10g15 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty. Precipitation ending KPIA-KSPI westward as
early as 00Z Friday, ending throughout central IL by 06Z. Low
ceilings approaching MVFR thresholds continuing.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 230149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge axis will cross Illinois
tonight, becoming increasingly narrow as a fast moving shortwave
approaches from the northern Plains while a deep low over the East
Coast is slow to move. Light southeasterly winds will slowly turn
southerly and increase toward morning as surface pressure
gradients increase with the approaching wave. Temperatures
primarily in the 40s already this evening will only drop into the
upper 30s to around 40 as a result of increasing wind and high
cloud cover spreading into Illinois. The approaching shortwave
will spread cloud cover and chances for light rain showers mainly
from around I-72 northward in the afternoon and evening Thursday.
Current forecast is on track with these features and no
significant updates needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

High pressure ridge over the Midwest this afternoon slowly shifting
eastward with the winds slowly taking on an increasingly
south/southeasterly direction.  Winds through the overnight will
continue to be light, but will help advect warmer air into the
area.  However, location of the ridge axis closer to the Indiana
border with lighter winds will result in lower temps east of I-57.
Low lying areas may see some areas of frost as well in the pre dawn
hours.  Not as concerned in the west where lows will only dip into
the lower 40s.  Approaching system from the west slowing
considerably and precip chances not in the forecast before 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The short/medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
progressive upper level through the weekend. Differences start to
appear by early next week with the next significant precipitation
producing system.

Upper level troughing from the High Plains will approach the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday, with a weakening trend the
farther east it advances into surface and upper level ridging. Based
on the 12Z upper air analysis from today, there is very little deep
moisture associated with this system. Moisture advection and
isentropic lift will be quite weak, so the window of opportunity for
rain tomorrow should be pretty short. Scaled back on the rain
chances as a result, with 30-40 PoPs mainly along and west of the
Illinois River during the afternoon - spreading toward BMI-CMI-
Lincoln toward early evening. The clouds and spotty rain showers
will keep temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal normals Thursday.

Trimmed temperatures a bit for Friday as some low level moisture
with a light southerly flow ahead of weak shortwave trough should
produce a few more clouds as the day progresses, especially west of
the I-55 corridor. The weekend is expected to be mild with plenty of
sunshine as ridging at the surface and aloft moves toward the
Midwest. Low level warm advection Saturday will allow highs to reach
the lower 70s in most areas, although readings will be a few degrees
cooler on Sunday as the surface ridge axis moves over Illinois. A
return, southerly flow on Monday will give us unseasonably warm
readings in the 72-76 range across the forecast area.

The model differences mainly revolve around the strength and
amplitude of an upper level trough moving out of the Plains Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a phased northern/southern stream system which
moves at a steady pace through the Midwest Tuesday. The European
model has a much stronger southern stream system, which develops a
surface low on the cold front, which then tracks into central IL by
early Wednesday which gives us heavier rainfall and precipitation
chances into Thursday morning. At this time, prefer the more
progressive/phased GFS model, and will keep the forecast dry for
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-6 kts increasing
to S 7-10 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 230149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge axis will cross Illinois
tonight, becoming increasingly narrow as a fast moving shortwave
approaches from the northern Plains while a deep low over the East
Coast is slow to move. Light southeasterly winds will slowly turn
southerly and increase toward morning as surface pressure
gradients increase with the approaching wave. Temperatures
primarily in the 40s already this evening will only drop into the
upper 30s to around 40 as a result of increasing wind and high
cloud cover spreading into Illinois. The approaching shortwave
will spread cloud cover and chances for light rain showers mainly
from around I-72 northward in the afternoon and evening Thursday.
Current forecast is on track with these features and no
significant updates needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

High pressure ridge over the Midwest this afternoon slowly shifting
eastward with the winds slowly taking on an increasingly
south/southeasterly direction.  Winds through the overnight will
continue to be light, but will help advect warmer air into the
area.  However, location of the ridge axis closer to the Indiana
border with lighter winds will result in lower temps east of I-57.
Low lying areas may see some areas of frost as well in the pre dawn
hours.  Not as concerned in the west where lows will only dip into
the lower 40s.  Approaching system from the west slowing
considerably and precip chances not in the forecast before 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The short/medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
progressive upper level through the weekend. Differences start to
appear by early next week with the next significant precipitation
producing system.

Upper level troughing from the High Plains will approach the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday, with a weakening trend the
farther east it advances into surface and upper level ridging. Based
on the 12Z upper air analysis from today, there is very little deep
moisture associated with this system. Moisture advection and
isentropic lift will be quite weak, so the window of opportunity for
rain tomorrow should be pretty short. Scaled back on the rain
chances as a result, with 30-40 PoPs mainly along and west of the
Illinois River during the afternoon - spreading toward BMI-CMI-
Lincoln toward early evening. The clouds and spotty rain showers
will keep temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal normals Thursday.

Trimmed temperatures a bit for Friday as some low level moisture
with a light southerly flow ahead of weak shortwave trough should
produce a few more clouds as the day progresses, especially west of
the I-55 corridor. The weekend is expected to be mild with plenty of
sunshine as ridging at the surface and aloft moves toward the
Midwest. Low level warm advection Saturday will allow highs to reach
the lower 70s in most areas, although readings will be a few degrees
cooler on Sunday as the surface ridge axis moves over Illinois. A
return, southerly flow on Monday will give us unseasonably warm
readings in the 72-76 range across the forecast area.

The model differences mainly revolve around the strength and
amplitude of an upper level trough moving out of the Plains Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a phased northern/southern stream system which
moves at a steady pace through the Midwest Tuesday. The European
model has a much stronger southern stream system, which develops a
surface low on the cold front, which then tracks into central IL by
early Wednesday which gives us heavier rainfall and precipitation
chances into Thursday morning. At this time, prefer the more
progressive/phased GFS model, and will keep the forecast dry for
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-6 kts increasing
to S 7-10 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 222342
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

High pressure ridge over the Midwest this afternoon slowly shifting
eastward with the winds slowly taking on an increasingly
south/southeasterly direction.  Winds through the overnight will
continue to be light, but will help advect warmer air into the
area.  However, location of the ridge axis closer to the Indiana
border with lighter winds will result in lower temps east of I-57.
Low lying areas may see some areas of frost as well in the pre dawn
hours.  Not as concerned in the west where lows will only dip into
the lower 40s.  Approaching system from the west slowing
considerably and precip chances not in the forecast before 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The short/medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the
progressive upper level through the weekend. Differences start to
appear by early next week with the next significant precipitation
producing system.

Upper level troughing from the High Plains will approach the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday, with a weakening trend the
farther east it advances into surface and upper level ridging. Based
on the 12Z upper air analysis from today, there is very little deep
moisture associated with this system. Moisture advection and
isentropic lift will be quite weak, so the window of opportunity for
rain tomorrow should be pretty short. Scaled back on the rain
chances as a result, with 30-40 PoPs mainly along and west of the
Illinois River during the afternoon - spreading toward BMI-CMI-
Lincoln toward early evening. The clouds and spotty rain showers
will keep temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal normals Thursday.

Trimmed temperatures a bit for Friday as some low level moisture
with a light southerly flow ahead of weak shortwave trough should
produce a few more clouds as the day progresses, especially west of
the I-55 corridor. The weekend is expected to be mild with plenty of
sunshine as ridging at the surface and aloft moves toward the
Midwest. Low level warm advection Saturday will allow highs to reach
the lower 70s in most areas, although readings will be a few degrees
cooler on Sunday as the surface ridge axis moves over Illinois. A
return, southerly flow on Monday will give us unseasonably warm
readings in the 72-76 range across the forecast area.

The model differences mainly revolve around the strength and
amplitude of an upper level trough moving out of the Plains Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a phased northern/southern stream system which
moves at a steady pace through the Midwest Tuesday. The European
model has a much stronger southern stream system, which develops a
surface low on the cold front, which then tracks into central IL by
early Wednesday which gives us heavier rainfall and precipitation
chances into Thursday morning. At this time, prefer the more
progressive/phased GFS model, and will keep the forecast dry for
next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-6 kts increasing
to S 7-10 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton








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