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000
FXUS63 KILX 231757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Updated forecast to remove the mention of isolated thunderstorms
this morning, but continued to mention isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening especially along and se of the IL river. SPC
day1 outlook just updated and has expanded the general risk of
thunder this afternoon/evening further nw to a Galesburg to Henry
line. Otherwise just a few adjustments to wx/pop grids today as
occasional showers develop along with isolated thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts through tonight still appear to average 1-1.25
inches across the CWA. The last time we have 1 inch or more of
rainfall was Oct 2. Highs in the upper 50s today with breezy sse
winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph, similar to yesterday.

995 mb low pressure deepening se into central OK late this morning
to turn ne and eject into central IL this evening bringing the
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region with deeper
moisture advecting in from the gulf of Mexico. 850 mb dewpoints
near 10C over southern tip of IL at dawn lifting into central IL
during the afternoon/evening. Temps were already 49-55F and should
climb about 5F more degrees rest of today with breezy sse winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and
Friday followed by moderating conditions by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR ceilings of 1-2k ft have developed over central IL airports late
this morning and expect ceilings to lower to IFR during the
afternoon and tonight. VFR visibilities at midday lower to 2-4
miles during mid and late afternoon and continue tonight as rain
showers become more widespread and heavier. Currently no
thunderstorms over IL and nearby states, but isolated
thunderstorms still expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, though coverage too limited to pin point donw in the
TAFS. Rain showers to mix with or change to light snow from west
to east during Monday morning with vsbys as low as 1-2 miles at
PIA and BMI, while 2-4 miles vsbys further south along I-72. SSE
winds 12-17 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish
closer to 10 kts this evening and then veer sw by overnight and
WSW later tonight into Monday morning and increase to 17-22 kts
and gusts 25-30 kts by 15Z/9 am Monday.

Deepening 994 mb low pressure just north of Oklahoma City in
central OK at midday to turn northeast and track into central IL
this evening as it deepens to 987 mb. Low pressure then tracks
into western lower MI late tonight as it deepens further to 980 mb
and pulls a strong cold front east across central IL between 08Z-
12Z. Very tight pressure gradient behing cold front to bring the
strong WSW winds by Monday morning along with the colder air
changing the light rain to light snow and more widespread over
northern airports of PIA and BMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 231646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Updated forecast to remove the mention of isolated thunderstorms
this morning, but continued to mention isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening especially along and se of the IL river. SPC
day1 outlook just updated and has expanded the general risk of
thunder this afternoon/evening further nw to a Galesburg to Henry
line. Otherwise just a few adjustments to wx/pop grids today as
occasional showers develop along with isolated thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts through tonight still appear to average 1-1.25
inches across the CWA. The last time we have 1 inch or more of
rainfall was Oct 2. Highs in the upper 50s today with breezy sse
winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph, similar to yesterday.

995 mb low pressure deepening se into central OK late this morning
to turn ne and eject into central IL this evening bringing the
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region with deeper
moisture advecting in from the gulf of Mexico. 850 mb dewpoints
near 10C over southern tip of IL at dawn lifting into central IL
during the afternoon/evening. Temps were already 49-55F and should
climb about 5F more degrees rest of today with breezy sse winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A strong storm system will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A brief period of VFR
conditions is expected to start the period, but conditions will
quickly degrade to IFR later this morning as the first of several
waves of showers spread into the region from the southwest. The
cold front associated with the system will sweep west to east
across the area late tonight, with the showers ending and/or
changing over to scattered snow showers. The bulk of the snow
threat will come after the end of the 12Z TAF period Monday
morning. Southerly winds, gusty at times today, will prevail ahead
of the cold front. Winds will trend westerly and become gusty
again behind the front by late tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 231646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Updated forecast to remove the mention of isolated thunderstorms
this morning, but continued to mention isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening especially along and se of the IL river. SPC
day1 outlook just updated and has expanded the general risk of
thunder this afternoon/evening further nw to a Galesburg to Henry
line. Otherwise just a few adjustments to wx/pop grids today as
occasional showers develop along with isolated thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts through tonight still appear to average 1-1.25
inches across the CWA. The last time we have 1 inch or more of
rainfall was Oct 2. Highs in the upper 50s today with breezy sse
winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph, similar to yesterday.

995 mb low pressure deepening se into central OK late this morning
to turn ne and eject into central IL this evening bringing the
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region with deeper
moisture advecting in from the gulf of Mexico. 850 mb dewpoints
near 10C over southern tip of IL at dawn lifting into central IL
during the afternoon/evening. Temps were already 49-55F and should
climb about 5F more degrees rest of today with breezy sse winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A strong storm system will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A brief period of VFR
conditions is expected to start the period, but conditions will
quickly degrade to IFR later this morning as the first of several
waves of showers spread into the region from the southwest. The
cold front associated with the system will sweep west to east
across the area late tonight, with the showers ending and/or
changing over to scattered snow showers. The bulk of the snow
threat will come after the end of the 12Z TAF period Monday
morning. Southerly winds, gusty at times today, will prevail ahead
of the cold front. Winds will trend westerly and become gusty
again behind the front by late tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 231118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A strong storm system will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A brief period of VFR
conditions is expected to start the period, but conditions will
quickly degrade to IFR later this morning as the first of several
waves of showers spread into the region from the southwest. The
cold front associated with the system will sweep west to east
across the area late tonight, with the showers ending and/or
changing over to scattered snow showers. The bulk of the snow
threat will come after the end of the 12Z TAF period Monday
morning. Southerly winds, gusty at times today, will prevail ahead
of the cold front. Winds will trend westerly and become gusty
again behind the front by late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 231118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A strong storm system will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A brief period of VFR
conditions is expected to start the period, but conditions will
quickly degrade to IFR later this morning as the first of several
waves of showers spread into the region from the southwest. The
cold front associated with the system will sweep west to east
across the area late tonight, with the showers ending and/or
changing over to scattered snow showers. The bulk of the snow
threat will come after the end of the 12Z TAF period Monday
morning. Southerly winds, gusty at times today, will prevail ahead
of the cold front. Winds will trend westerly and become gusty
again behind the front by late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 230915
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A short period of IFR ceilings will affect PIA and BMI at the
start of this TAF period, but a return to MVFR ceilings is
expected for a couple hours after that. Some area could climb to
VFR based on upstream cloud reports. Spotty showers or sprinkles
will be the main precip the rest of tonight and into Sunday
morning. A strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS
conditions for much of the night and into Sunday morning.

AS the main wave of rain overspreads the area later Sunday
morning with moderate rains Sunday afternoon, visibility will dip
to MVFR at all TAF sites, and possibly as low as IFR for DEC and
CMI Sunday afternoon during any moderate rains. Kept the more
pessimistic IFR ceilings at all terminals Sunday afternoon, when
categorical rain chances are forecast for all TAF sites. Winds
will remain somewhat gusty the rest of tonight. SSW winds 12-16
kts with gusts 18-24 kts may continue for a few hours for SPI and
BMI. The other terminals seem to have diminished enough to keep
gusts at bay. Gusts will return to all TAF sites on Sunday as the
low pressure approaches, then moves across NW IL. Wind directions
will become complicated near the low Sunday evening. For now we
show a backing from S to SE, but directions could become NE for a
time ahead of the low Sunday late afternoon/early eve.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 230915
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Weak short-wave that brought showers to east-central Illinois
earlier this evening has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes,
leaving behind cloudy, but dry conditions across central Illinois.
Upper air analysis indicates a plume of rich 850mb moisture streaming
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico.  As the low-level jet
gradually strengthens to around 40kt, models are showing showers
re-developing in this moistening airmass across north-central
Missouri between 09z and 12z.  The showers will increase in areal
coverage and lift northward into the Illinois River Valley this
morning, while locations further east toward the Indiana border may
see a lull in the precip chances through midday.  As northern stream
upper wave currently over the Rockies pushes eastward and helps
eject vigorous wave over southern Texas northward, synoptic lift
will increase markedly across the region later today.  Given strong
lift interacting with deep-layer moisture, showers will become
widespread across the entire area by mid to late afternoon.  In
addition to the precip, it will be a breezy and warm day.  Forecast
soundings suggest southeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 25mph, which
will help push high temps a few degrees above guidance into the
middle to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

00z Nov 23 GFS/ECMWF have both shifted the track of the approaching
surface low westward, and now look very similar to previous runs of
the NAM.  The new projected track will take the low from Kansas this
morning to northwest Illinois tonight, meaning central Illinois will
punch into the warm sector of the system this evening.  Given
presence of strong upper dynamics and marginal elevated instability,
have decided to expand the thunder mention further west and north
across nearly the entire area this afternoon/evening.  Rain chances
will be greatest during the afternoon and early evening, then will
decrease by mid to late evening as mid-level dry slot tries to push
into the area from the southwest.  As the low lifts further
northeastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight, a
strong cold front will get pulled eastward.  NAM is slightly
faster with the arrival of the cold air, while the GFS generally
delays it until Monday morning.  Will take a blend of the models
here, resulting in deformation zone rain showers mixing with snow
across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.  As the colder air
arrives in earnest, snow-showers will spread further eastward
toward the I-55 corridor Monday morning.  Heaviest precip will
generally be lifting northeastward with the low, so best chances
for accumulating snow will be along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line where around 1 inch will be possible.  Further
south and east, precip will be lighter and will remain in the form
of rain east of the I-57 corridor.  Aside from the precip chances,
blustery and much colder conditions will develop courtesy of
westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph.  High temperatures
will be achieved early in the day, followed by readings falling
through the 30s during the afternoon.

Once this system exits the region, cold and dry weather will be the
rule for much of the week.  The only other chance for precip will
arrive on Wednesday as a clipper system skirts through the region.
WAA ahead of the wave will help boost temperatures well into the 30s
and even into the 40s across the far southern CWA, so precip type
will likely be a rain/snow mix.  Since QPF is expected to remain
rather light and temps will be well above freezing, am expecting
little or no snow accumulation Wednesday/Wednesday night.  After
that, a return to cold/dry weather is anticipated for
Thursday/Friday followed by moderating conditions by next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A short period of IFR ceilings will affect PIA and BMI at the
start of this TAF period, but a return to MVFR ceilings is
expected for a couple hours after that. Some area could climb to
VFR based on upstream cloud reports. Spotty showers or sprinkles
will be the main precip the rest of tonight and into Sunday
morning. A strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS
conditions for much of the night and into Sunday morning.

AS the main wave of rain overspreads the area later Sunday
morning with moderate rains Sunday afternoon, visibility will dip
to MVFR at all TAF sites, and possibly as low as IFR for DEC and
CMI Sunday afternoon during any moderate rains. Kept the more
pessimistic IFR ceilings at all terminals Sunday afternoon, when
categorical rain chances are forecast for all TAF sites. Winds
will remain somewhat gusty the rest of tonight. SSW winds 12-16
kts with gusts 18-24 kts may continue for a few hours for SPI and
BMI. The other terminals seem to have diminished enough to keep
gusts at bay. Gusts will return to all TAF sites on Sunday as the
low pressure approaches, then moves across NW IL. Wind directions
will become complicated near the low Sunday evening. For now we
show a backing from S to SE, but directions could become NE for a
time ahead of the low Sunday late afternoon/early eve.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 230553
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A band of steady rains southeast of I-55 will advance to the
northeast over the next few hours. The latest model runs indicate
that after midnight, coverage of rain should diminish for much of
the time up until late morning tomorrow. We will try to adjust
PoPs to account for the lull in measurable precip later tonight
and Sunday morning. Drizzle could develop after midnight as the
low level clouds drop below 1k FT, especially for areas NW of
I-55. Areas of fog could affect NW areas later tonight as well,
although dense fog is not expected.

The push of heaviest precip looks to be Sunday afternoon, when the
bulk of our rainfall amounts could occur, with 0.5" to 1" possible
in that time. Any change over to snow would hold off until late
Sunday night, but no accumulation is expected by Monday morning.

Winds tonight will remain steady in the 10-15 mph range, with a
few locations seeing gusts still over 20 mph at times.

Lows tonight should remain relatively steady the remainder of the
night, with additional temp falls of only 3-5 degrees in most
areas under a blanket of clouds and periodic showers/drizzle.

The update the evening was mainly for weather grids, with a minor
bump up with lows in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A short period of IFR ceilings will affect PIA and BMI at the
start of this TAF period, but a return to MVFR ceilings is
expected for a couple hours after that. Some area could climb to
VFR based on upstream cloud reports. Spotty showers or sprinkles
will be the main precip the rest of tonight and into Sunday
morning. A strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS
conditions for much of the night and into Sunday morning.

AS the main wave of rain overspreads the area later Sunday
morning with moderate rains Sunday afternoon, visibility will dip
to MVFR at all TAF sites, and possibly as low as IFR for DEC and
CMI Sunday afternoon during any moderate rains. Kept the more
pessimistic IFR ceilings at all terminals Sunday afternoon, when
categorical rain chances are forecast for all TAF sites. Winds
will remain somewhat gusty the rest of tonight. SSW winds 12-16
kts with gusts 18-24 kts may continue for a few hours for SPI and
BMI. The other terminals seem to have diminished enough to keep
gusts at bay. Gusts will return to all TAF sites on Sunday as the
low pressure approaches, then moves across NW IL. Wind directions
will become complicated near the low Sunday evening. For now we
show a backing from S to SE, but directions could become NE for a
time ahead of the low Sunday late afternoon/early eve.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 230553
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A band of steady rains southeast of I-55 will advance to the
northeast over the next few hours. The latest model runs indicate
that after midnight, coverage of rain should diminish for much of
the time up until late morning tomorrow. We will try to adjust
PoPs to account for the lull in measurable precip later tonight
and Sunday morning. Drizzle could develop after midnight as the
low level clouds drop below 1k FT, especially for areas NW of
I-55. Areas of fog could affect NW areas later tonight as well,
although dense fog is not expected.

The push of heaviest precip looks to be Sunday afternoon, when the
bulk of our rainfall amounts could occur, with 0.5" to 1" possible
in that time. Any change over to snow would hold off until late
Sunday night, but no accumulation is expected by Monday morning.

Winds tonight will remain steady in the 10-15 mph range, with a
few locations seeing gusts still over 20 mph at times.

Lows tonight should remain relatively steady the remainder of the
night, with additional temp falls of only 3-5 degrees in most
areas under a blanket of clouds and periodic showers/drizzle.

The update the evening was mainly for weather grids, with a minor
bump up with lows in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A short period of IFR ceilings will affect PIA and BMI at the
start of this TAF period, but a return to MVFR ceilings is
expected for a couple hours after that. Some area could climb to
VFR based on upstream cloud reports. Spotty showers or sprinkles
will be the main precip the rest of tonight and into Sunday
morning. A strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS
conditions for much of the night and into Sunday morning.

AS the main wave of rain overspreads the area later Sunday
morning with moderate rains Sunday afternoon, visibility will dip
to MVFR at all TAF sites, and possibly as low as IFR for DEC and
CMI Sunday afternoon during any moderate rains. Kept the more
pessimistic IFR ceilings at all terminals Sunday afternoon, when
categorical rain chances are forecast for all TAF sites. Winds
will remain somewhat gusty the rest of tonight. SSW winds 12-16
kts with gusts 18-24 kts may continue for a few hours for SPI and
BMI. The other terminals seem to have diminished enough to keep
gusts at bay. Gusts will return to all TAF sites on Sunday as the
low pressure approaches, then moves across NW IL. Wind directions
will become complicated near the low Sunday evening. For now we
show a backing from S to SE, but directions could become NE for a
time ahead of the low Sunday late afternoon/early eve.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 230307
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A band of steady rains southeast of I-55 will advance to the
northeast over the next few hours. The latest model runs indicate
that after midnight, coverage of rain should diminish for much of
the time up until late morning tomorrow. We will try to adjust
PoPs to account for the lull in measurable precip later tonight
and Sunday morning. Drizzle could develop after midnight as the
low level clouds drop below 1k FT, especially for areas NW of
I-55. Areas of fog could affect NW areas later tonight as well,
although dense fog is not expected.

The push of heaviest precip looks to be Sunday afternoon, when the
bulk of our rainfall amounts could occur, with 0.5" to 1" possible
in that time. Any change over to snow would hold off until late
Sunday night, but no accumulation is expected by Monday morning.

Winds tonight will remain steady in the 10-15 mph range, with a
few locations seeing gusts still over 20 mph at times.

Lows tonight should remain relatively steady the remainder of the
night, with additional temp falls of only 3-5 degrees in most
areas under a blanket of clouds and periodic showers/drizzle.

The update the evening was mainly for weather grids, with a minor
bump up with lows in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at all terminal sites this evening,
with IFR ceilings expected to develop after midnight. Spotty
showers or drizzle will be the main precip this evening, as warm
air advection provides the lifting mechanism through the night. A
strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS conditions for
much of the night and into Sunday morning.

Visibility will dip to MVFR and possibly IFR for PIA and BMI after
midnight. Kept the more pessimistic IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI
on Sunday. Rain showers to become more likely later this
tonight with best chances shifting into IL river valley
by PIA late tonight and Sunday morning. SSW winds 12-16 kts with
gusts 18-22 kts early this evening to veer SSE Sunday morning and
still gust again to 18-23 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 230307
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A band of steady rains southeast of I-55 will advance to the
northeast over the next few hours. The latest model runs indicate
that after midnight, coverage of rain should diminish for much of
the time up until late morning tomorrow. We will try to adjust
PoPs to account for the lull in measurable precip later tonight
and Sunday morning. Drizzle could develop after midnight as the
low level clouds drop below 1k FT, especially for areas NW of
I-55. Areas of fog could affect NW areas later tonight as well,
although dense fog is not expected.

The push of heaviest precip looks to be Sunday afternoon, when the
bulk of our rainfall amounts could occur, with 0.5" to 1" possible
in that time. Any change over to snow would hold off until late
Sunday night, but no accumulation is expected by Monday morning.

Winds tonight will remain steady in the 10-15 mph range, with a
few locations seeing gusts still over 20 mph at times.

Lows tonight should remain relatively steady the remainder of the
night, with additional temp falls of only 3-5 degrees in most
areas under a blanket of clouds and periodic showers/drizzle.

The update the evening was mainly for weather grids, with a minor
bump up with lows in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at all terminal sites this evening,
with IFR ceilings expected to develop after midnight. Spotty
showers or drizzle will be the main precip this evening, as warm
air advection provides the lifting mechanism through the night. A
strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS conditions for
much of the night and into Sunday morning.

Visibility will dip to MVFR and possibly IFR for PIA and BMI after
midnight. Kept the more pessimistic IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI
on Sunday. Rain showers to become more likely later this
tonight with best chances shifting into IL river valley
by PIA late tonight and Sunday morning. SSW winds 12-16 kts with
gusts 18-22 kts early this evening to veer SSE Sunday morning and
still gust again to 18-23 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 230011
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at all terminal sites this evening,
with IFR ceilings expected to develop after midnight. Spotty
showers or drizzle will be the main precip this evening, as warm
air advection provides the lifting mechanism through the night. A
strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS conditions for
much of the night and into Sunday morning.

Visibility will dip to MVFR and possibly IFR for PIA and BMI after
midnight. Kept the more pessimistic IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI
on Sunday. Rain showers to become more likely later this
tonight with best chances shifting into IL river valley
by PIA late tonight and Sunday morning. SSW winds 12-16 kts with
gusts 18-22 kts early this evening to veer SSE Sunday morning and
still gust again to 18-23 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 230011
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Saskatchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at all terminal sites this evening,
with IFR ceilings expected to develop after midnight. Spotty
showers or drizzle will be the main precip this evening, as warm
air advection provides the lifting mechanism through the night. A
strong SW LLJ will continue tonight, providing LLWS conditions for
much of the night and into Sunday morning.

Visibility will dip to MVFR and possibly IFR for PIA and BMI after
midnight. Kept the more pessimistic IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI
on Sunday. Rain showers to become more likely later this
tonight with best chances shifting into IL river valley
by PIA late tonight and Sunday morning. SSW winds 12-16 kts with
gusts 18-22 kts early this evening to veer SSE Sunday morning and
still gust again to 18-23 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 222052
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Sasketchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings at PIA and BMI most of this morning (just lifted to
VFR at PIA) while VFR ceilings along I-72 at midday. Meanwhile
isolated to scattered showers had shifted se of the central IL
airports at late morning. HRRR shows MVFR ceilings 2-3k ft
possible at times over central IL this afternoon especially at PIA
and BMI, and this model shifts these lower ceilings along with fog
further north of central IL this evening. Was more pestimistic
with keeping MVFR ceilings and vsbys around tonight and even lower
IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI Sunday morning. Rain showers to become
more likely later this evening/overnight with best chances
shifting into IL river valley by PIA late tonight and Sunday
morning. Breezy ssw winds 12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts into this
evening to veer sse Sunday morning and still gust again to 18-23
kts. Kept LLWS in TAFs again tonight until mid morning Sunday
with 2k ft sw winds of 40 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 222052
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Weakening 1031 mb high pressure drifting off eastern NC shore while
strong and deepening 985 mb low moving east into sw Sasketchewan.
This was giving a tight pressure gradient over central and southeast IL
this afternoon with very breezy ssw winds 12 to 22 mph and gusts of
25 to 30 mph. SSW winds advecting in much milder and more moist air
from western Gulf of Mexico with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
(warmest sw areas with Mount Carmel airport at 64F) and dewpoints in
the middle to upper 40s. Cloudy skies across much of central IL with
some breaks in clouds se of I-70 in southeast IL. Isolated light
rain showers over eastern IL this afternoon while showers more
numerous over sw IL from I-64 south into southern MO along and se of
I-44 where a few thunderstorm were a few hours ago. Mid level
moisture spreads northward tonight across areas se of the IL river
and this to increase chances of light rain showers though rainfall
amounts will be light due to weak lift/forcing. Also have patchy
drizzle with lower clouds over IL river valley tonight and areas of
fog overnight (currently getting fog over parts of nw IL and se IA).
Went a few degrees above similar MET/MAV guidance for lows tonight
in the mid to upper 40s due to cloud cover and southerly winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph especially this evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

The vigorous short wave, lifting out of the southern plains will
phase with a northern stream system tomorrow; The related surface
system will strengthen over the CWA and lift northeast east tomorrow
night through Monday. The associated cold front with this system
will move through the area Monday night and bring the return to
colder air in the region for the beginning of the coming week. This
system is the main challenge with this forecast package this
afternoon. The resulting weather with this system will be for mostly
rain across the whole area tomorrow with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms in southeastern IL, along and south of I-70, for
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. The dynamics of this
system do not look very strong, so severe storms are not expected in
southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon or evening. Areas across the
north will see the areas of fog continuing through tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The fog will dissipate in the north once the low
pressure area moves northeast and the cold front moves through the
area, tomorrow night. The colder air that moves in Sunday night and
Monday, as the system deepens and moves northeast, will bring a
change to the p-type, resulting in rain mixing with snow in the west
Sunday night, and then becoming all snow by Monday. Snowfall
accumulations will be a half inch or less; since the pcpn will be
ending as the system moves northeast.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow but then fall from tomorrow night
through Monday night. Temps on Monday will be steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon, with the 24hr highs likely being around
midnight tomorrow night, and lows late Monday evening.

The remainder of the forecast period, through Saturday, will be
relatively dry. However, the models are bringing in a weak clipper
system Wed through Thur, that will bring a chance of snow to the
northern third of the CWA. Models are fairly consistent with the
location of the track of the low pressure area, but differ on
timing. So will still with a blend of the two models and keep the
chance of snow Wed and Wed night, as with previous forecast; and
then have a chance in the northeast parts for Thur to accommodate
the slower timing of the ECMWF.

Temps will warm some on Wed, ahead of the clipper system, but then
turn cold again after the system moves through and colder air
advects into the region again.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings at PIA and BMI most of this morning (just lifted to
VFR at PIA) while VFR ceilings along I-72 at midday. Meanwhile
isolated to scattered showers had shifted se of the central IL
airports at late morning. HRRR shows MVFR ceilings 2-3k ft
possible at times over central IL this afternoon especially at PIA
and BMI, and this model shifts these lower ceilings along with fog
further north of central IL this evening. Was more pestimistic
with keeping MVFR ceilings and vsbys around tonight and even lower
IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI Sunday morning. Rain showers to become
more likely later this evening/overnight with best chances
shifting into IL river valley by PIA late tonight and Sunday
morning. Breezy ssw winds 12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts into this
evening to veer sse Sunday morning and still gust again to 18-23
kts. Kept LLWS in TAFs again tonight until mid morning Sunday
with 2k ft sw winds of 40 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 221754
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Will update the forecast for warmer highs this afternoon as
temperatures running warmer, especially in far southeast IL with
Mount Carmel airport up to 61F at 10 am and Lawrenceville at 57F.
Much milder highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and mildest day
since Veterans Day Nov 11. Isolated to scattered rain showers to
occur mainly se of the IL river rest of today.

Breaks in low clouds by late morning especially along and south of
a Rushville to Lincoln to Champaign line. Isolated showers were
east of I-57 in eastern IL and lifting ne into Indiana. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms was over southern MO and these
could lift ne into sw counties and southeast IL by this evening.
SPC has general risk of thunder later today sw of a Quincy to
Springfield to Taylorville line. Breezy ssw winds 12-18 mph and
gusts 18-25 mph bringing milder air in the upper 40s to mid 50s
(coolest readings ne counties), with Mount Carmel airport up to 61F.

Modified 1034 MB Canadian high pressure over the Carolinas and
strong 986 mb low pressure over southeast Alberta was giving a
breezy ssw winds gusting 20-30 mph with much milder and more
moist air over IL today. Streamflow originating from the western
gulf of Mexico has brought dewpoints up into the low to mid 40s
late this morning over central/se IL, a big jump from dewpoints in
the single digits and teens yesterday. Deeper mid level moisture
has shunted off to the east of IL this morning but models return
deeper mid level moisture into areas se of the IL river this
evening, so rain showers should increase in coverage tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR ceilings at PIA and BMI most of this morning (just lifted to
VFR at PIA) while VFR ceilings along I-72 at midday. Meanwhile
isolated to scattered showers had shifted se of the central IL
airports at late morning. HRRR shows MVFR ceilings 2-3k ft
possible at times over central IL this afternoon especially at PIA
and BMI, and this model shifts these lower ceilings along with fog
further north of central IL this evening. Was more pestimistic
with keeping MVFR ceilings and vsbys around tonight and even lower
IFR ceilings at PIA and BMI Sunday morning. Rain showers to become
more likely later this evening/overnight with best chances
shifting into IL river valley by PIA late tonight and Sunday
morning. Breezy ssw winds 12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts into this
evening to veer sse Sunday morning and still gust again to 18-23
kts. Kept LLWS in TAFs again tonight until mid morning Sunday
with 2k ft sw winds of 40 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 221645
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Will update the forecast for warmer highs this afternoon as
temperatures running warmer, especially in far southeast IL with
Mount Carmel airport up to 61F at 10 am and Lawrenceville at 57F.
Much milder highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and mildest day
since Veterans Day Nov 11. Isolated to scattered rain showers to
occur mainly se of the IL river rest of today.

Breaks in low clouds by late morning especially along and south of
a Rushville to Lincoln to Champaign line. Isolated showers were
east of I-57 in eastern IL and lifting ne into Indiana. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms was over southern MO and these
could lift ne into sw counties and southeast IL by this evening.
SPC has general risk of thunder later today sw of a Quincy to
Springfield to Taylorville line. Breezy ssw winds 12-18 mph and
gusts 18-25 mph bringing milder air in the upper 40s to mid 50s
(coolest readings ne counties), with Mount Carmel airport up to 61F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Strong warm/moist advection in advance of an approaching storm
system will produce periods of showers/drizzle across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Conditions will
rapidly degrade to MVFR and eventually IFR where they have not
already done so. For the majority of the period, there is not a
strong focus to say explicitly when rainfall will occur, and covered
majority of the period with a VCSH. Went with prevailing
rain/drizzle later tonight as a piece of upper energy arrives,
and as forecast soundings suggest a deepening moisture depth. A
strong low level inversion will keep surface winds less gusty than
they otherwise might be, but during the non-peak heating times
where gusts are not occurring, LLWS will be a concern.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 221118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Strong warm/moist advection in advance of an approaching storm
system will produce periods of showers/drizzle across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Conditions will
rapidly degrade to MVFR and eventually IFR where they have not
already done so. For the majority of the period, there is not a
strong focus to say explicitly when rainfall will occur, and covered
majority of the period with a VCSH. Went with prevailing
rain/drizzle later tonight as a piece of upper energy arrives,
and as forecast soundings suggest a deepening moisture depth. A
strong low level inversion will keep surface winds less gusty than
they otherwise might be, but during the non-peak heating times
where gusts are not occurring, LLWS will be a concern.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 221118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Strong warm/moist advection in advance of an approaching storm
system will produce periods of showers/drizzle across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Conditions will
rapidly degrade to MVFR and eventually IFR where they have not
already done so. For the majority of the period, there is not a
strong focus to say explicitly when rainfall will occur, and covered
majority of the period with a VCSH. Went with prevailing
rain/drizzle later tonight as a piece of upper energy arrives,
and as forecast soundings suggest a deepening moisture depth. A
strong low level inversion will keep surface winds less gusty than
they otherwise might be, but during the non-peak heating times
where gusts are not occurring, LLWS will be a concern.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 220918
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours in occasional
rainfall or drizzle. Ceilings will hover in the 1k-2k FT range,
but a few periods of IFR with cigs slightly below 1k FT may
occur late tonight. The KILX radar VAD wind profile shows LLWS
conditions are likely occurring across the area as a strong LLJ
cranks at 45-50kt at 2k ft from the SW. Surface winds will be S at
10-15 kts the rest of the night and become gusty tomorrow to 23-24kt.

The precip will continue be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a
strong low level jet pulling warm and moist air into the region.
Rain chances will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but
no freezing rain conditions are expected as air temps climb. Fog
will be possible tomorrow eve as winds diminish and low levels
remain saturated.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 220918
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Widespread showers associated with a passing short-wave have now
lifted N/NE into northern Illinois, leaving behind only isolated
showers across the KILX CWA early this morning.  Central Illinois
will remain between the departing wave and a much stronger upstream
system today, resulting in limited synoptic lift and overall low
rain chances.  In addition, forecast soundings indicate quite a bit
of mid-level drying in the wake of the initial short-wave, so
deep-layer moisture will be lacking for precip development as well.
As a result, have reduced PoPs into the chance category, with mainly
just very light showers or drizzle noted.  Brisk southerly winds
will continue to bring warmer air into the region.  Based on current
rate of temp rise, have gone at or above the warmest guidance
numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

After a lull in the precip today, rain chances will once again begin
to increase tonight as another short-wave approaches from the
southwest.  After a full day of southerly flow, much deeper moisture
profiles will be in place by the time this particular feature
arrives.  As a result, think showers will become likely across the
board overnight.

Main forecast challenges continue to revolve around the phasing of a
vigorous southern stream wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Mexico and an approaching northern stream
system.  The NAM is the only model that tends to keep the two
systems separate, so have rejected its solution in favor of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM consensus.  End result will be the development of
surface low pressure over Texas Saturday night that lifts
northeastward into Michigan by Monday morning.  This particular
track will take the low along/east of the I-57 corridor Sunday
night.  After the Saturday night wave exits the region, another
brief lull in precip chances may occur early Sunday morning before
much stronger lift arrives with the main system Sunday afternoon.
Given strong upper dynamics and copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture, will go with categorical PoPs across the board Sunday into
Sunday evening.  While the strongest surface-based instability will
remain well to the S/SE from the Tennessee River Valley southward to
the Gulf Coast, think marginal elevated instability in the vicinity
of the deepening low pressure will be sufficient to mention isolated
thunder along/south of I-70 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Once low moves into the southern Great Lakes, strong CAA will spill
into the region late Sunday night into Monday.  Most model solutions
agree that the cold air will arrive before the precip has a chance
to depart, so will continue to feature rain/snow-showers mainly
along/west of I-55 late Sunday night into Monday morning before the
low lifts further to the northeast and precip comes to an end.

After that, cold and generally dry weather will be on tap for the
remainder of the week.  The only potential fly in the ointment is a
weak clipper system expected to come through by mid-week.  Models
still show some minor timing discrepancies: however, signs are
pointing to Wednesday as the most favored time period for light
precip.  WAA ahead of the approaching wave will likely boost temps
into the middle to upper 30s across much of the area, with lower 40s
possible far southeast. Given cold air aloft, will carry low chance
PoPs for light snow across the western half of the CWA Wednesday,
then across the east Wednesday night.  Due to the weak/fast-moving
nature of this system and the marginally warm temps, am not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, with perhaps a
couple tenths of an inch at best.  Thanksgiving Day still looks
cold and dry with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to the
middle 30s far south.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours in occasional
rainfall or drizzle. Ceilings will hover in the 1k-2k FT range,
but a few periods of IFR with cigs slightly below 1k FT may
occur late tonight. The KILX radar VAD wind profile shows LLWS
conditions are likely occurring across the area as a strong LLJ
cranks at 45-50kt at 2k ft from the SW. Surface winds will be S at
10-15 kts the rest of the night and become gusty tomorrow to 23-24kt.

The precip will continue be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a
strong low level jet pulling warm and moist air into the region.
Rain chances will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but
no freezing rain conditions are expected as air temps climb. Fog
will be possible tomorrow eve as winds diminish and low levels
remain saturated.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 220558
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

The warm air surge aloft and increasing warm advection with
southeast surface winds are proving to be too strong to allow the
surface temps to cool below freezing prior to the rainfall
arriving. Even our NE areas near CMI and Rantoul are seeing
surface temps rising farther above freezing with the arrival of
clouds and increasing SE winds. Calls around the area where precip
has developed has shown no icing occurring, and thermal profiles
show a continued warming trend the rest of the night. Analyzing
surface obs and road surface temps across the area show no
freezing temps in the advisory area, despite wet bulb temps around
26 to 28F in most areas. All indications show rising temps since
sunset, with no change in that trend expected. Therefore, the
freezing rain advisory will be cancelled with the evening
update.

Will remove mention of freezing rain from tonight`s grids, but will
not alter the coverage of the likely and chance PoPs through 12z.
May add a mention of fog for areas NW of the IL river later
tonight, or add some drizzle to the forecast in addition to the
showers. Will not make any changes beyond tonight`s grids with this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours in occasional
rainfall or drizzle. Ceilings will hover in the 1k-2k FT range,
but a few periods of IFR with cigs slightly below 1k FT may
occur late tonight. The KILX radar VAD wind profile shows LLWS
conditions are likely occurring across the area as a strong LLJ
cranks at 45-50kt at 2k ft from the SW. Surface winds will be S at
10-15 kts the rest of the night and become gusty tomorrow to 23-24kt.

The precip will continue be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a
strong low level jet pulling warm and moist air into the region.
Rain chances will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but
no freezing rain conditions are expected as air temps climb. Fog
will be possible tomorrow eve as winds diminish and low levels
remain saturated.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 220558
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

The warm air surge aloft and increasing warm advection with
southeast surface winds are proving to be too strong to allow the
surface temps to cool below freezing prior to the rainfall
arriving. Even our NE areas near CMI and Rantoul are seeing
surface temps rising farther above freezing with the arrival of
clouds and increasing SE winds. Calls around the area where precip
has developed has shown no icing occurring, and thermal profiles
show a continued warming trend the rest of the night. Analyzing
surface obs and road surface temps across the area show no
freezing temps in the advisory area, despite wet bulb temps around
26 to 28F in most areas. All indications show rising temps since
sunset, with no change in that trend expected. Therefore, the
freezing rain advisory will be cancelled with the evening
update.

Will remove mention of freezing rain from tonight`s grids, but will
not alter the coverage of the likely and chance PoPs through 12z.
May add a mention of fog for areas NW of the IL river later
tonight, or add some drizzle to the forecast in addition to the
showers. Will not make any changes beyond tonight`s grids with this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours in occasional
rainfall or drizzle. Ceilings will hover in the 1k-2k FT range,
but a few periods of IFR with cigs slightly below 1k FT may
occur late tonight. The KILX radar VAD wind profile shows LLWS
conditions are likely occurring across the area as a strong LLJ
cranks at 45-50kt at 2k ft from the SW. Surface winds will be S at
10-15 kts the rest of the night and become gusty tomorrow to 23-24kt.

The precip will continue be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a
strong low level jet pulling warm and moist air into the region.
Rain chances will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but
no freezing rain conditions are expected as air temps climb. Fog
will be possible tomorrow eve as winds diminish and low levels
remain saturated.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 220259
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

The warm air surge aloft and increasing warm advection with
southeast surface winds are proving to be too strong to allow the
surface temps to cool below freezing prior to the rainfall
arriving. Even our NE areas near CMI and Rantoul are seeing
surface temps rising farther above freezing with the arrival of
clouds and increasing SE winds. Calls around the area where precip
has developed has shown no icing occurring, and thermal profiles
show a continued warming trend the rest of the night. Analyzing
surface obs and road surface temps across the area show no
freezing temps in the advisory area, despite wet bulb temps around
26 to 28F in most areas. All indications show rising temps since
sunset, with no change in that trend expected. Therefore, the
freezing rain advisory will be cancelled with the evening
update.

Will remove mention of freezing rain from tonight`s grids, but will
not alter the coverage of the likely and chance PoPs through 12z.
May add a mention of fog for areas NW of the IL river later
tonight, or add some drizzle to the forecast in addition to the
showers. Will not make any changes beyond tonight`s grids with this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate to MVFR between
01z-03z as a period of light freezing rain spreads NE across
central IL. SPI may remain above freezing even at the onset of
precip this evening, preventing much in the way of icing there.
The other terminal sites have a better chance of seeing anywhere
from 1 to 4 hours of freezing rain/drizzle before air temperatures
climb back above freezing. Very slippery conditions could quickly
develop as the precipitation falls on dry cold pavement. The very
strong push of warm air aloft will eventually translate to the
surface and push ground level temps above freezing after a few
hours.

The MVFR ceilings will generally dip to around 1500FT in most
areas, with vsbys as low as 4-6 miles from late evening into Sat
morning. LLWS chances increase later tonight and Sat morning as
winds at 2k ft from the SW increase to 45-55 kts. Surface winds SE
at 10-14 kts this evening to veer south overnight and increase to
near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

The precip will be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a strong low
level jet pulling warm and moist air over the top of the cold dome
of high pressure in place across IL this evening. Rain chances
will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but no additional
freezing rain conditions are expected after the first few hours of
precip this evening and overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 220259
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

The warm air surge aloft and increasing warm advection with
southeast surface winds are proving to be too strong to allow the
surface temps to cool below freezing prior to the rainfall
arriving. Even our NE areas near CMI and Rantoul are seeing
surface temps rising farther above freezing with the arrival of
clouds and increasing SE winds. Calls around the area where precip
has developed has shown no icing occurring, and thermal profiles
show a continued warming trend the rest of the night. Analyzing
surface obs and road surface temps across the area show no
freezing temps in the advisory area, despite wet bulb temps around
26 to 28F in most areas. All indications show rising temps since
sunset, with no change in that trend expected. Therefore, the
freezing rain advisory will be cancelled with the evening
update.

Will remove mention of freezing rain from tonight`s grids, but will
not alter the coverage of the likely and chance PoPs through 12z.
May add a mention of fog for areas NW of the IL river later
tonight, or add some drizzle to the forecast in addition to the
showers. Will not make any changes beyond tonight`s grids with this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate to MVFR between
01z-03z as a period of light freezing rain spreads NE across
central IL. SPI may remain above freezing even at the onset of
precip this evening, preventing much in the way of icing there.
The other terminal sites have a better chance of seeing anywhere
from 1 to 4 hours of freezing rain/drizzle before air temperatures
climb back above freezing. Very slippery conditions could quickly
develop as the precipitation falls on dry cold pavement. The very
strong push of warm air aloft will eventually translate to the
surface and push ground level temps above freezing after a few
hours.

The MVFR ceilings will generally dip to around 1500FT in most
areas, with vsbys as low as 4-6 miles from late evening into Sat
morning. LLWS chances increase later tonight and Sat morning as
winds at 2k ft from the SW increase to 45-55 kts. Surface winds SE
at 10-14 kts this evening to veer south overnight and increase to
near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

The precip will be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a strong low
level jet pulling warm and moist air over the top of the cold dome
of high pressure in place across IL this evening. Rain chances
will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but no additional
freezing rain conditions are expected after the first few hours of
precip this evening and overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 220001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate to MVFR between
01z-03z as a period of light freezing rain spreads NE across
central IL. SPI may remain above freezing even at the onset of
precip this evening, preventing much in the way of icing there.
The other terminal sites have a better chance of seeing anywhere
from 1 to 4 hours of freezing rain/drizzle before air temperatures
climb back above freezing. Very slippery conditions could quickly
develop as the precipitation falls on dry cold pavement. The very
strong push of warm air aloft will eventually translate to the
surface and push ground level temps above freezing after a few
hours.

The MVFR ceilings will generally dip to around 1500FT in most
areas, with vsbys as low as 4-6 miles from late evening into Sat
morning. LLWS chances increase later tonight and Sat morning as
winds at 2k ft from the SW increase to 45-55 kts. Surface winds SE
at 10-14 kts this evening to veer south overnight and increase to
near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

The precip will be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a strong low
level jet pulling warm and moist air over the top of the cold dome
of high pressure in place across IL this evening. Rain chances
will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but no additional
freezing rain conditions are expected after the first few hours of
precip this evening and overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY until 1 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ036-
040>044-048-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 220001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate to MVFR between
01z-03z as a period of light freezing rain spreads NE across
central IL. SPI may remain above freezing even at the onset of
precip this evening, preventing much in the way of icing there.
The other terminal sites have a better chance of seeing anywhere
from 1 to 4 hours of freezing rain/drizzle before air temperatures
climb back above freezing. Very slippery conditions could quickly
develop as the precipitation falls on dry cold pavement. The very
strong push of warm air aloft will eventually translate to the
surface and push ground level temps above freezing after a few
hours.

The MVFR ceilings will generally dip to around 1500FT in most
areas, with vsbys as low as 4-6 miles from late evening into Sat
morning. LLWS chances increase later tonight and Sat morning as
winds at 2k ft from the SW increase to 45-55 kts. Surface winds SE
at 10-14 kts this evening to veer south overnight and increase to
near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

The precip will be triggered by a shortwave aloft and a strong low
level jet pulling warm and moist air over the top of the cold dome
of high pressure in place across IL this evening. Rain chances
will linger through much of the day on Saturday, but no additional
freezing rain conditions are expected after the first few hours of
precip this evening and overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY until 1 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ036-
040>044-048-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 212106
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening across the central
IL airports expected to deteriorate during mid/late evening as
a period of light freezing rain spreads ne across central IL.
MVFR ceilings 1-3k ft and possibly vsbys as low as 4-6 miles to
develop toward late evening and continue into Sat morning. Just
about a 4 hour period of light freezing rain/drizzle before temps
warm above freezing to change to light rain/drizzle overnight.
Added LLWS overnight into Sat morning with 2k ft sw winds of 45-55
kts. SE surface winds 10-14 kts this afternoon to veer south by
overnight and increase to near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

1035 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio will drift east
into the mid Atlantic states by midnight, will increase WAA and
isentropic lift pattern developing over IL tonight. Weak short
wave to eject northeast from the central Plains into IA and
central/northern IL by mid evening spreading in patches of light
freezing rain/drizzle and changing to light rain/drizzle toward
overnight. Broken to overcast MVRF clouds over MO sw of St Louis
will spread ne across central IL by early evening and could get to
SPI by 00Z. Mixed light precipitation to follow a few hours later
with MVFR clouds and chances of light rain rain/drizzle lingering
overnight and Sat morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY until 1 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ036-
040>044-048-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 212106
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening across the central
IL airports expected to deteriorate during mid/late evening as
a period of light freezing rain spreads ne across central IL.
MVFR ceilings 1-3k ft and possibly vsbys as low as 4-6 miles to
develop toward late evening and continue into Sat morning. Just
about a 4 hour period of light freezing rain/drizzle before temps
warm above freezing to change to light rain/drizzle overnight.
Added LLWS overnight into Sat morning with 2k ft sw winds of 45-55
kts. SE surface winds 10-14 kts this afternoon to veer south by
overnight and increase to near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

1035 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio will drift east
into the mid Atlantic states by midnight, will increase WAA and
isentropic lift pattern developing over IL tonight. Weak short
wave to eject northeast from the central Plains into IA and
central/northern IL by mid evening spreading in patches of light
freezing rain/drizzle and changing to light rain/drizzle toward
overnight. Broken to overcast MVRF clouds over MO sw of St Louis
will spread ne across central IL by early evening and could get to
SPI by 00Z. Mixed light precipitation to follow a few hours later
with MVFR clouds and chances of light rain rain/drizzle lingering
overnight and Sat morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY until 1 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ036-
040>044-048-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 211752
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Just a few minor updates to the forecast today with addressing
increasing cloud cover this afternoon from the southwest after
ample sunshine this morning. Highs in the low to mid 30s this
afternoon with mildest readings sw areas and in southeast IL.
Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon.

1036 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio and ridging west
into eastern IL was provided sunshine this morning over central/se
IL with se winds 8-15 mph and a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph over
western IL. This Canadian high brought cold temps to IL early this
morning with lows of 4F in Altona (northern Knox county), 6F on ne
side of Normal, 7F at NWS office in Lincoln and 8F at airports in
Bloomington and Champaign.

High pressure to continue drifting east across the ohio river
valley this afternoon with increase se breezes over central IL.
MVFR clouds over central and sw MO into sw KY to spread ne into
central IL during the afternoon with skies becoming mostly cloudy
sw areas by late afternoon while areas from I-74 generally have
mostly sunny skies today. Will look at latest models before making
any changes to headlines tonight, so freezing rain advisory
continue tonight northern half of CWA for ice accumulations
mostly less than a tenth inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
surface. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from 6 pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses. The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois. Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in. Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation. Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge. Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing
an advisory. Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours,
ending before the morning traffic picks up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening across the central
IL airports expected to deteriorate during mid/late evening as
a period of light freezing rain spreads ne across central IL.
MVFR ceilings 1-3k ft and possibly vsbys as low as 4-6 miles to
develop toward late evening and continue into Sat morning. Just
about a 4 hour period of light freezing rain/drizzle before temps
warm above freezing to change to light rain/drizzle overnight.
Added LLWS overnight into Sat morning with 2k ft sw winds of 45-55
kts. SE surface winds 10-14 kts this afternoon to veer south by
overnight and increase to near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

1035 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio will drift east
into the mid Atlantic states by midnight, will increase WAA and
isentropic lift pattern developing over IL tonight. Weak short
wave to eject northeast from the central Plains into IA and
central/northern IL by mid evening spreading in patches of light
freezing rain/drizzle and changing to light rain/drizzle toward
overnight. Broken to overcast MVRF clouds over MO sw of St Louis
will spread ne across central IL by early evening and could get to
SPI by 00Z. Mixed light precipitation to follow a few hours later
with MVFR clouds and chances of light rain rain/drizzle lingering
overnight and Sat morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 211646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Just a few minor updates to the forecast today with addressing
increasing cloud cover this afternoon from the southwest after
ample sunshine this morning. Highs in the low to mid 30s this
afternoon with mildest readings sw areas and in southeast IL.
Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon.

1036 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio and ridging west
into eastern IL was provided sunshine this morning over central/se
IL with se winds 8-15 mph and a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph over
western IL. This Canadian high brought cold temps to IL early this
morning with lows of 4F in Altona (northern Knox county), 6F on ne
side of Normal, 7F at NWS office in Lincoln and 8F at airports in
Bloomington and Champaign.

High pressure to continue drifting east across the ohio river
valley this afternoon with increase se breezes over central IL.
MVFR clouds over central and sw MO into sw KY to spread ne into
central IL during the afternoon with skies becoming mostly cloudy
sw areas by late afternoon while areas from I-74 generally have
mostly sunny skies today. Will look at latest models before making
any changes to headlines tonight, so freezing rain advisory
continue tonight northern half of CWA for ice accumulations
mostly less than a tenth inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A storm system will approach the central Illinois terminals today,
increasing clouds across the region. By tonight, rain will begin
to develop, with with CIGS falling into the MVFR category. Surface
temperatures are likely to be below freezing when the rain
develops, so a period of light icing is likely for parts of tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Just a few minor updates to the forecast today with addressing
increasing cloud cover this afternoon from the southwest after
ample sunshine this morning. Highs in the low to mid 30s this
afternoon with mildest readings sw areas and in southeast IL.
Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon.

1036 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio and ridging west
into eastern IL was provided sunshine this morning over central/se
IL with se winds 8-15 mph and a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph over
western IL. This Canadian high brought cold temps to IL early this
morning with lows of 4F in Altona (northern Knox county), 6F on ne
side of Normal, 7F at NWS office in Lincoln and 8F at airports in
Bloomington and Champaign.

High pressure to continue drifting east across the ohio river
valley this afternoon with increase se breezes over central IL.
MVFR clouds over central and sw MO into sw KY to spread ne into
central IL during the afternoon with skies becoming mostly cloudy
sw areas by late afternoon while areas from I-74 generally have
mostly sunny skies today. Will look at latest models before making
any changes to headlines tonight, so freezing rain advisory
continue tonight northern half of CWA for ice accumulations
mostly less than a tenth inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A storm system will approach the central Illinois terminals today,
increasing clouds across the region. By tonight, rain will begin
to develop, with with CIGS falling into the MVFR category. Surface
temperatures are likely to be below freezing when the rain
develops, so a period of light icing is likely for parts of tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 211158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A storm system will approach the central Illinois terminals today,
increasing clouds across the region. By tonight, rain will begin
to develop, with with CIGS falling into the MVFR category. Surface
temperatures are likely to be below freezing when the rain
develops, so a period of light icing is likely for parts of tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A storm system will approach the central Illinois terminals today,
increasing clouds across the region. By tonight, rain will begin
to develop, with with CIGS falling into the MVFR category. Surface
temperatures are likely to be below freezing when the rain
develops, so a period of light icing is likely for parts of tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 210951
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge has pushed into IL, and will continue a slow
trek across IL through the morning. Winds will be either light
north or variable under the ridge axis. As the ridge advances east of
the terminal sites on Friday, winds will increase from the
southeast. Winds speeds should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z
Friday. Mid clouds at 15k ft will advance into the region from the
SW as moisture begins to overrun the cold high pressure. Low level
saturation will hold off until Friday evening, as warming begins
at all levels. It appears SPI and DEC may remain above freezing
as the rain starts, but we left a tempo for the possibility of a
short period of FZRA at the onset of pcpn. Farther north,
PIA/BMI/CMI will have a better chance of a few hours of FZRA
before the mid-level warming gets so strong that the raindrops can
no longer freeze on contact. The timing of that warming remains in
question, and if the GFS verifies, the period of FZRA would be
very short-lived at any location. The NAM is much colder, and
indicates several hours of FZRA for our northern terminals from
mid evening to just after midnight. Light icing could cause very
slippery conditions as the freezing rain falls on cold and dry
ground at the onset of pcpn.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210951
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

High pressure ridge over the region this morning with light and
variable winds across Central Illinois.  Another cold day expected
with highs in the low to upper 30s, but some moderation in the
airmass is expected going into the evening  hours. Southeasterly
winds increasing through the afternoon as the ridge axis slips
eastward.  Main issue for the forecast remains the onset of rain
this evening as the temps drop below freezing.  Models are still
changing a bit with the timing of the cold air and the approach of
the precip. Moisture advecting into the region on the back  side of
the ridge building some weak showers north as temperatures drop
after sunset. The window for freezing rain may be short-lived,
particularly along a line from Springfield to Jacksonville. Rain
spreading north into the region before the bulk of the warm air
moves into place and sfc temps will still be at or below freezing at
onset. Also, the ground is still frozen and am concerned that the
warm air will be a little slower to erode the cold dense air at the
sfc. Best chances for the freezing rain will be narrow and variable
windows from  6pm to midnight, shifting northward as the evening
progresses.  The threat will come to an end as the warm air works
its way into Central Illinois.  Some adjustment likely to the
advisory after the morning run of models comes in.  Variation with
every run has resulted in low confidence about the duration of the
freezing rain threat, so there is a bit of a cushion in the timing
of the ice accumulation.  Accumulations are expected to be low, and
in some areas, may see little more than freezing drizzle,
particularly east of the Interstate 55 corridor north of Lincoln,
closer to the drier air under the sfc ridge.  Either way, the first
icing event of the year, regardless of duration, will be issuing an
advisory.  Freezing rain advisory out for the evening hours, ending
before the morning traffic picks up.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

More southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of
a developing system to the SW. Same developing system will continue
to produce rain through the weekend.  A gap continues to show up in
the models between the developing warm frontal feature and the core
of the sfc low. But the timing is just different enough in the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF to maintain a rather high chance/likely pop through
the overnight Sat night. Best chances for the weekend is in the high
chance/likely category for precip, and has moved to categorical on
Sunday with the highest QPF.  Temps not high enough to significantly
warm the ground, so some frozen ground will increase some threat for
rising creeks and rivers with increased runoff. Beyond tonight,
Saturday through Sun night will be dominated by rain before possibly
seeing some snow on the back side of the system as cold air moves
back in late Sun night/early Monday as the precip comes to an end.
A soggy weekend overall, with temps struggling into the 50s for
Sunday.

Next week will see a return of some cold temps as another trof digs
into the center of the country.  A chance at a clipper system
starting to show up in the model runs for Wednesday, potentially
impacting a busy travel day, and have upped to a chance pop to start
the trend for that system a little earlier than the SuperBlend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge has pushed into IL, and will continue a slow
trek across IL through the morning. Winds will be either light
north or variable under the ridge axis. As the ridge advances east of
the terminal sites on Friday, winds will increase from the
southeast. Winds speeds should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z
Friday. Mid clouds at 15k ft will advance into the region from the
SW as moisture begins to overrun the cold high pressure. Low level
saturation will hold off until Friday evening, as warming begins
at all levels. It appears SPI and DEC may remain above freezing
as the rain starts, but we left a tempo for the possibility of a
short period of FZRA at the onset of pcpn. Farther north,
PIA/BMI/CMI will have a better chance of a few hours of FZRA
before the mid-level warming gets so strong that the raindrops can
no longer freeze on contact. The timing of that warming remains in
question, and if the GFS verifies, the period of FZRA would be
very short-lived at any location. The NAM is much colder, and
indicates several hours of FZRA for our northern terminals from
mid evening to just after midnight. Light icing could cause very
slippery conditions as the freezing rain falls on cold and dry
ground at the onset of pcpn.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ036-040>044-047>051-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon









000
FXUS63 KILX 210551
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

High pressure will provide another very cold night with ideal
radiational cooling conditions. As the surface ridge axis
progresses directly over IL, winds will become light and variable
under clear skies. That will allow temps to drop into the single
digits toward Galesburg and Altona, with low to mid teens all the
way south to I-70. Some light snow cover from Paris to Effingham
will help produce slightly colder low temps in those areas.

Still seeing the potential for a few hours of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation Friday evening. The GFS remains much warmer
than the NAM with the low level thermodynamics. Even the NAM shows
the peak warm layer temp climbing to +8C by midnight as far north
as I-74. That would diminish the potential for any continued
freezing of the rain after it reaches the ground based on expected
surface temps hovering very close to freezing at that time.

The main concern remains that any freezing rain initially would
be falling on dry and cold pavement, which could quickly produce
very slippery conditions even with just a few hundredths of
freezing rain. The warming trend from south to north the rest of
the night should help any ice begin to melt after a few hours of
icy conditions.

Overall, the current forecast grids have a good handle on the
expected trends over the next 12-24 hours, and no formal update
will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge has pushed into IL, and will continue a slow
trek across IL through the morning. Winds will be either light
north or variable under the ridge axis. As the ridge advances east of
the terminal sites on Friday, winds will increase from the
southeast. Winds speeds should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z
Friday. Mid clouds at 15k ft will advance into the region from the
SW as moisture begins to overrun the cold high pressure. Low level
saturation will hold off until Friday evening, as warming begins
at all levels. It appears SPI and DEC may remain above freezing
as the rain starts, but we left a tempo for the possibility of a
short period of FZRA at the onset of pcpn. Farther north,
PIA/BMI/CMI will have a better chance of a few hours of FZRA
before the mid-level warming gets so strong that the raindrops can
no longer freeze on contact. The timing of that warming remains in
question, and if the GFS verifies, the period of FZRA would be
very short-lived at any location. The NAM is much colder, and
indicates several hours of FZRA for our northern terminals from
mid evening to just after midnight. Light icing could cause very
slippery conditions as the freezing rain falls on cold and dry
ground at the onset of pcpn.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210551
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

High pressure will provide another very cold night with ideal
radiational cooling conditions. As the surface ridge axis
progresses directly over IL, winds will become light and variable
under clear skies. That will allow temps to drop into the single
digits toward Galesburg and Altona, with low to mid teens all the
way south to I-70. Some light snow cover from Paris to Effingham
will help produce slightly colder low temps in those areas.

Still seeing the potential for a few hours of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation Friday evening. The GFS remains much warmer
than the NAM with the low level thermodynamics. Even the NAM shows
the peak warm layer temp climbing to +8C by midnight as far north
as I-74. That would diminish the potential for any continued
freezing of the rain after it reaches the ground based on expected
surface temps hovering very close to freezing at that time.

The main concern remains that any freezing rain initially would
be falling on dry and cold pavement, which could quickly produce
very slippery conditions even with just a few hundredths of
freezing rain. The warming trend from south to north the rest of
the night should help any ice begin to melt after a few hours of
icy conditions.

Overall, the current forecast grids have a good handle on the
expected trends over the next 12-24 hours, and no formal update
will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge has pushed into IL, and will continue a slow
trek across IL through the morning. Winds will be either light
north or variable under the ridge axis. As the ridge advances east of
the terminal sites on Friday, winds will increase from the
southeast. Winds speeds should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z
Friday. Mid clouds at 15k ft will advance into the region from the
SW as moisture begins to overrun the cold high pressure. Low level
saturation will hold off until Friday evening, as warming begins
at all levels. It appears SPI and DEC may remain above freezing
as the rain starts, but we left a tempo for the possibility of a
short period of FZRA at the onset of pcpn. Farther north,
PIA/BMI/CMI will have a better chance of a few hours of FZRA
before the mid-level warming gets so strong that the raindrops can
no longer freeze on contact. The timing of that warming remains in
question, and if the GFS verifies, the period of FZRA would be
very short-lived at any location. The NAM is much colder, and
indicates several hours of FZRA for our northern terminals from
mid evening to just after midnight. Light icing could cause very
slippery conditions as the freezing rain falls on cold and dry
ground at the onset of pcpn.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210256
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

High pressure will provide another very cold night with ideal
radiational cooling conditions. As the surface ridge axis
progresses directly over IL, winds will become light and variable
under clear skies. That will allow temps to drop into the single
digits toward Galesburg and Altona, with low to mid teens all the
way south to I-70. Some light snow cover from Paris to Effingham
will help produce slightly colder low temps in those areas.

Still seeing the potential for a few hours of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation Friday evening. The GFS remains much warmer
than the NAM with the low level thermodynamics. Even the NAM shows
the peak warm layer temp climbing to +8C by midnight as far north
as I-74. That would diminish the potential for any continued
freezing of the rain after it reaches the ground based on expected
surface temps hovering very close to freezing at that time.

The main concern remains that any freezing rain initially would
be falling on dry and cold pavement, which could quickly produce
very slippery conditions even with just a few hundredths of
freezing rain. The warming trend from south to north the rest of
the night should help any ice begin to melt after a few hours of
icy conditions.

Overall, the current forecast grids have a good handle on the
expected trends over the next 12-24 hours, and no formal update
will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge extending from SE North Dakota across SW Illinois will
push east across IL over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will
start out WNW at 7 to 10 kt but become light and variable by late
evening. As the ridge axis advances east of the terminal sites on
Friday, winds will increase from the southeast. Winds speeds
should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z Friday. Mid clouds at
15k ft will advance into the region from the SW as moisture begins
to overrun the cold high pressure. Any precipitation is expected
to hold off until after the end of this TAF period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210256
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

High pressure will provide another very cold night with ideal
radiational cooling conditions. As the surface ridge axis
progresses directly over IL, winds will become light and variable
under clear skies. That will allow temps to drop into the single
digits toward Galesburg and Altona, with low to mid teens all the
way south to I-70. Some light snow cover from Paris to Effingham
will help produce slightly colder low temps in those areas.

Still seeing the potential for a few hours of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation Friday evening. The GFS remains much warmer
than the NAM with the low level thermodynamics. Even the NAM shows
the peak warm layer temp climbing to +8C by midnight as far north
as I-74. That would diminish the potential for any continued
freezing of the rain after it reaches the ground based on expected
surface temps hovering very close to freezing at that time.

The main concern remains that any freezing rain initially would
be falling on dry and cold pavement, which could quickly produce
very slippery conditions even with just a few hundredths of
freezing rain. The warming trend from south to north the rest of
the night should help any ice begin to melt after a few hours of
icy conditions.

Overall, the current forecast grids have a good handle on the
expected trends over the next 12-24 hours, and no formal update
will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge extending from SE North Dakota across SW Illinois will
push east across IL over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will
start out WNW at 7 to 10 kt but become light and variable by late
evening. As the ridge axis advances east of the terminal sites on
Friday, winds will increase from the southeast. Winds speeds
should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z Friday. Mid clouds at
15k ft will advance into the region from the SW as moisture begins
to overrun the cold high pressure. Any precipitation is expected
to hold off until after the end of this TAF period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 202353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge extending from SE North Dakota across SW Illinois will
push east across IL over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will
start out WNW at 7 to 10 kt but become light and variable by late
evening. As the ridge axis advances east of the terminal sites on
Friday, winds will increase from the southeast. Winds speeds
should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z Friday. Mid clouds at
15k ft will advance into the region from the SW as moisture begins
to overrun the cold high pressure. Any precipitation is expected
to hold off until after the end of this TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 202353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from Canada into northern IL and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The surface ridge extending from SE North Dakota across SW Illinois will
push east across IL over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will
start out WNW at 7 to 10 kt but become light and variable by late
evening. As the ridge axis advances east of the terminal sites on
Friday, winds will increase from the southeast. Winds speeds
should climb into the 10-12kt range by 21z Friday. Mid clouds at
15k ft will advance into the region from the SW as moisture begins
to overrun the cold high pressure. Any precipitation is expected
to hold off until after the end of this TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 202048
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from canada into northern il and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Subsidence behind weak trough has lead to SKC to SCT conditions
across the Central Illinois TAF sites has allowed momentum transfer
to produce wind gusts around 20 kts at times from west. The surface
ridge over Central U.S. will push east into the terminal sites
late this afternoon and overnight which should reduce winds and
gusts below 10 kts.

Southeast flow on backside of ridge is expected to develop Friday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barker







000
FXUS63 KILX 202048
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Surface ridge over lower Missouri Valley will push east into
Illinois overnight. Resultant drop in wind speeds will combine with
mostly clear sky to produce near ideal radiational cooling
conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Coolest readings
should be in GBG area and in the area from Paris to Effingham where
some snow cover is still observable in visible satellite. Have
generally used MAV guidance as NAM/WRF and resultant MET have been
on cold side last night and today.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper air and moisture channel imagery this morning shows main
northerly jet from canada into northern il and then curving off to
the east. upper trof over eastern US is now moving east, as strong
closed low system seen moving coast to west coast. That system will
be the system that will trigger precipitation (pcpn) over midwest
into the weekend. Models similar in movement of that system, as
surface high pressure area over MO drifts off to the east.

As west coast system digs into the southwest US, surface high moving
into central east coast will aid in southern moisture advection from
the gulf into midwest n Friday. Cold air at surface will be overrun
by moisture from AR and MO, increasing on Friday and reaching region
Friday evening. Warm air overriding lingering cold dome will result
in some freezing rain on Friday evening, as the warm air advects
north into area. NAM and GFS soundings, and temperature Meteograms
show timing of the pcpn and the retreat/warming of the boundary
layer will be critical in freezing rain development. NAM seems to be
too cold, but each new run seems to warm NAM. Temperature timing in
Friday afternoon through evening and overnight was a blend of GFS
and a warming of the NAM. Freezing line is expected to retreat
northward over CWA in the evening and overnight, with brief freezing
in the south sections and longer periods in the north. Pcpn amounts
however, will be light, less than tenth of an inch. However some
slick areas will be possible on secondary roads.

For Saturday into Sunday, upper system will dig into TX and then
move north through midwest into Great Lakes by Sunday night. This
will bring periods of rain over region through the weekend, with the
heaviest rainfall on Sunday as the low center moves through. Colder
air moves in by Tuesday will some lingering pcpn.

Models then start to diverge for Wednesday and Thursday. Coordinated
will surrounding offices and consensus to drop pcpn chances for Wed
night into Thursday night until future model runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Subsidence behind weak trough has lead to SKC to SCT conditions
across the Central Illinois TAF sites has allowed momentum transfer
to produce wind gusts around 20 kts at times from west. The surface
ridge over Central U.S. will push east into the terminal sites
late this afternoon and overnight which should reduce winds and
gusts below 10 kts.

Southeast flow on backside of ridge is expected to develop Friday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barker








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