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000
FXUS63 KILX 010915
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Snow continues to fall over all but far northwest sections of the
forecast area early this morning. However, latest radar trends
indicates a bit of push to the north with the snow with precip
starting back up into Macomb this past hour. Short term models
indicate another band of snow to shift further north into the
advisory area by mid-morning. Was on the fence with the area from
Peoria and northwest whether to cancel the advisory early this
morning but with models suggesting this second wave moving into the
area, will hold off canceling the northwest section of the advisory
for now. If trends suggest the snow will shift further south of the
Peoria area, similar to this first wave, will go ahead and cancel
along the Illinois River valley later this morning.

Further south, where we thought we would see a few 6 inch amounts,
we have had reports of 5-6 inches already roughly from along the I70
corridor north towards Taylorville to just south of Paris. For
consistency sake with our neighboring forecast offices, went ahead
and upgraded to a winter storm warning for a storm total of 5 to 7
inches with locally higher amounts from just east of Springfield to
the Indiana state border. Not your classic winter storm, as the snow
has been falling with very light winds, and we really don`t see the
winds coming up much today at all, so its basically an upgrade due
to more widespread 6 inch snow amounts.

Forecast soundings along and south of I-70 suggest a mix with sleet
and freezing rain for a time this morning before we see surface temps
warm into the low to mid 30s, melting any ice accumulation that may
occur in that area this morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Forecast focus quickly shifts to the next late-winter storm system.
The key will be with significant WAA in the mid levels, with 850 mb
temperatures quickly rising into the +4 to +6C range between
midnight and sunrise Tuesday. Any snow/sleet mixture will quickly
transition to liquid precip, with forecast soundings showing the
above-freezing layer as much as 7000-8000 feet thick. Currently
thinking that up to a tenth inch of freezing rain is likely through
early Tuesday morning before the precip transitions to regular rain
everywhere. The big question is how fast the surface temps respond
with a significant snow pack. Hourly temperature projections showing
areas west of Springfield climbing above freezing shortly before
sunrise, with the ECMWF MOS as high as 37-38F by 6 am, the GFS MOS
in the mid 30s and the NAM MOS just shy of freezing. Trended the
hourly grids in more of a GFS/NAM blend initially, with the overall
highs Tuesday close to the GFS MOS.

In terms of precip timing, a lot of dry air below 700 mb will need
to be overcome first, which will take much of the evening. Have thus
kept most of the CWA dry during the evening, with slight chance
PoP`s in the far southwest. The NAM is the quickest in pulling out
the precipitation Tuesday afternoon ahead of the main cold front,
but went a little slower on the timing and lingered some likely
PoP`s in the far southeast into early evening. However, any
lingering precip will quickly exit as strong CAA takes place with an
incoming high. The trailing end of the cold front will briefly get
hung up in the parallel upper flow south of the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night, and have lingered some low chance PoP`s into early Wednesday
mainly south of I-70.

Another slug of cold air will swing across the northern tier of
states midweek, with 850 mb temperatures as low as -15 to -18C over
our area Wednesday night. Another period of temperatures 20-25
degrees below normal will result. However, the split upper flow will
finally start to merge together over the Midwest late week, helping
to bottle up the colder air north of the Canadian border. This will
allow temperatures to get much closer to normal for the end of the
week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will continue at BMI and PIA, but some IFR
conditions will be possible, so will have a TEMPO group for those
two sites. Then MVFR conditions will continue through the morning
hours. IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI
overnight and into the morning hours. Models continue to indicate
another round of moderate snow overnight, so will keep TEMPO group
for these three sites for next 2 to 3 hrs. Could be another round
of moderate snow toward morning, but timing and location will
remain uncertain given the short range model differences; but will
keep IFR conditions through the morning hours. Then most of the
snow should be east of the area and believe conditions will become
MVFR. Based on model trends, believe snow will end during the
afternoon hours, though MVFR cigs will still be around. Toward
midnight, lower clouds should scatter out and leave a high cirrus
deck. Winds will be light southeast to south overnight, then
become light and variable as the system moves toward the east.
Then by afternoon and into the evening, winds will become westerly
with speeds less than 10kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ029-
031-036>038-040>051-053-071>073.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ052-
054>057-061>063-066>068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 010540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will continue at BMI and PIA, but some IFR
conditions will be possible, so will have a TEMPO group for those
two sites. Then MVFR conditions will continue through the morning
hours. IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI
overnight and into the morning hours. Models continue to indicate
another round of moderate snow overnight, so will keep TEMPO group
for these three sites for next 2 to 3 hrs. Could be another round
of moderate snow toward morning, but timing and location will
remain uncertain given the short range model differences; but will
keep IFR conditions through the morning hours. Then most of the
snow should be east of the area and believe conditions will become
MVFR. Based on model trends, believe snow will end during the
afternoon hours, though MVFR cigs will still be around. Toward
midnight, lower clouds should scatter out and leave a high cirrus
deck. Winds will be light southeast to south overnight, then
become light and variable as the system moves toward the east.
Then by afternoon and into the evening, winds will become westerly
with speeds less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 010540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will continue at BMI and PIA, but some IFR
conditions will be possible, so will have a TEMPO group for those
two sites. Then MVFR conditions will continue through the morning
hours. IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI
overnight and into the morning hours. Models continue to indicate
another round of moderate snow overnight, so will keep TEMPO group
for these three sites for next 2 to 3 hrs. Could be another round
of moderate snow toward morning, but timing and location will
remain uncertain given the short range model differences; but will
keep IFR conditions through the morning hours. Then most of the
snow should be east of the area and believe conditions will become
MVFR. Based on model trends, believe snow will end during the
afternoon hours, though MVFR cigs will still be around. Toward
midnight, lower clouds should scatter out and leave a high cirrus
deck. Winds will be light southeast to south overnight, then
become light and variable as the system moves toward the east.
Then by afternoon and into the evening, winds will become westerly
with speeds less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 010540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will continue at BMI and PIA, but some IFR
conditions will be possible, so will have a TEMPO group for those
two sites. Then MVFR conditions will continue through the morning
hours. IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI
overnight and into the morning hours. Models continue to indicate
another round of moderate snow overnight, so will keep TEMPO group
for these three sites for next 2 to 3 hrs. Could be another round
of moderate snow toward morning, but timing and location will
remain uncertain given the short range model differences; but will
keep IFR conditions through the morning hours. Then most of the
snow should be east of the area and believe conditions will become
MVFR. Based on model trends, believe snow will end during the
afternoon hours, though MVFR cigs will still be around. Toward
midnight, lower clouds should scatter out and leave a high cirrus
deck. Winds will be light southeast to south overnight, then
become light and variable as the system moves toward the east.
Then by afternoon and into the evening, winds will become westerly
with speeds less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 010540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will continue at BMI and PIA, but some IFR
conditions will be possible, so will have a TEMPO group for those
two sites. Then MVFR conditions will continue through the morning
hours. IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI
overnight and into the morning hours. Models continue to indicate
another round of moderate snow overnight, so will keep TEMPO group
for these three sites for next 2 to 3 hrs. Could be another round
of moderate snow toward morning, but timing and location will
remain uncertain given the short range model differences; but will
keep IFR conditions through the morning hours. Then most of the
snow should be east of the area and believe conditions will become
MVFR. Based on model trends, believe snow will end during the
afternoon hours, though MVFR cigs will still be around. Toward
midnight, lower clouds should scatter out and leave a high cirrus
deck. Winds will be light southeast to south overnight, then
become light and variable as the system moves toward the east.
Then by afternoon and into the evening, winds will become westerly
with speeds less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 010258
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 010258
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the area, with
lighter amounts northwest of I-55. However, another moderate area
of snow will be making its way into northwest Illinois soon. Temps
have already fallen to forecasted lows or just above them, so will
be updating the forecast to account for lower temps overnight.
Rest of forecast looks ok for now. Will not be updating anything
related to the pops/wx or WSW, right now. Update grids and worded
forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 282353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 282353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 282353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 282353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Light to moderate snow will continue across the area and effect
all the TAF sites this evening. SPI/DEC/CMI will see the heaviest
snowfall off and on the next several hours, so have TEMPO groups
there to start. However, based on radar trends, moderate snow will
arrive this evening and continue til around midnight. Then, based
on model data, there looks like a let up during the overnight
hours, but snow still falling with vis around 1sm. Then things
improve more during the late morning around 16z. Conditions should
improve from IFR to MVFR during the at time frame. Conditions at
PIA and BMI will also improve around that time from being IFR as
well. PIA and BMI will have mostly light snow through the evening
and overnight period. Do have a TEMPO group for 4hrs for these two
sites as radar trends show some more moderate snow possible
early...though on the northern edge of that. Winds will be
southeast and then become much lighter overnight as the system
passes, then northwest after the system moves east tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 282045
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 282045
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 282045
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow was just starting to move into west central Illinois early this
afternoon, although a pretty substantial wedge of dry air in the
lower atmosphere will need to be overcome before the snow starts
reaching the ground in central and especially eastern Illinois. Am
expecting to this to occur across the forecast area by early
evening.

Strong high pressure extending from the New England states to the
upper Midwest will keep a cold easterly flow across the forecast
area through the night. The snow will mainly be a result of a
southwest low to mid level flow overrunning the cold surface air. The
short range models all indicate a weak surface trough extending from
southwest MO into southeast IL overnight, with no real distinct low
pressure center.

Nevertheless, the location of this weak surface feature, combined
with moderate isentropic lift should focus the heavier snowfall
between 03-09Z (9pm through 3 am CST) in an area roughly just south
of Springfield-Danville on the north end and close to I-70 on the
south end. Nearly all of the short range are in agreement on this
scenario both in amounts and location. Thus, there is high
confidence that 3-5 inches of snow will occur in this area by
daybreak. Snow amounts should be less farther to the northwest of
the best forcing, where 1-2 inches is anticipated by daybreak along
and west of the Illinois River valley.

The lack of a substantial surface low, and high pressure nosing back
across north central Illinois should result in very light wind
speeds overnight. Thus, blowing and drifting snow should not be a
concern with this system.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow should be ongoing across most of central and southeast Illinois
to start the day Sunday. The stronger isentropic lift should have
ceased by the daytime hours Sunday, but some weak impulses riding
the strong baroclinic zone and the associated frontogenesis will be
able to keep the snow going for much of the day. The baroclinic zone
has shifted a little further to the south in the latest model progs
which will push the maximum snow axis south, likely just a little
north of the I-70 corridor. Still expect a maximum of 4-6 inches
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, with lower amounts to the north
and south. There are model signals that banded snow is possible
within the heavier snow area, which would likely push snow totals
over 6 inches locally, but it is too tough to pin point exactly
where this threat will occur.

The system departs a little more quickly than previously
anticipated, so the snow should end from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening.
High pressure will then build across the area Sunday night into
early Monday night, supporting quiet but still cooler than normal
weather. However, this high will not be accompanied by the frigid
temperatures we have seen with the Arctic highs of late.

Our next storm system is progged to arrive later Monday night into
Tuesday night. The precipitation should largely hold off until after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, which is a good thing since
the strong WAA aloft should quickly have the precipitation falling
in liquid form. While it will take a few hours, likely after sunrise
Tuesday for much of the area, for surface temperatures to climb
above freezing, the window of opportunity for ice accumulation
appears short. In fact, the WAA aloft is so significant that most of
the icing will likely occur on the frozen ground/snow as opposed to
trees and power lines. All areas will transition to rain Tuesday
morning, with a few thunderstorms possible across southern Illinois.
Total rainfall amounts may approach 1 inch in some areas, which may
pose a flooding risk when combined with rapid snow melt.

This system should quickly depart Tuesday night, also faster than
previously anticipated. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the
system`s cold front should quickly have any lingering precipitation
change to snow Tuesday night. Some earlier model runs had an
additional disturbance push the cold front back north on Wednesday,
providing another shot of light snow, at least across the southeast
half of the forecast area. However, the model consensus has been
backing away from this potential of late. Have maintained some low
snow chances Wednesday for now, but if recent trends persist,
Wednesday will end up being dry.

Another fairly chilly area of high pressure will build across the
region for Wednesday night into Thursday night, supporting
widespread single digit low temperatures, and high temperatures
struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly return flow will
develop on Friday, which should help temperatures recover to near
normal levels for early March.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Miller







000
FXUS63 KILX 281804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller







000
FXUS63 KILX 281804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 281804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Backed off a bit on the timing of the advancing snow and
associated lower visibility and ceilings for central and eastern
IL TAF sites. The 12Z ILX sounding indicated plenty of dry air
that will need to be overcome below 5,000 feet AGL this afternoon.
Many of the echoes on the Midwest mosaic radar approaching the MS
River were aloft due to the dry air. Thus, have adjusted the start
of the light snow in VFR conditions between 21-23Z. As the lower
atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated
after 00z in central IL and toward 02z in eastern IL.

A weakening pressure gradient should keep wind speeds around 5
knots or less through much of the snow event this evening through
Sunday morning. Many of the short range models are indicating that
the snow may start to taper off around mid-morning. However, will
keep IFR conditions in place because of the uncertainty involving
lift with a 150kt jet max moving into north central IL. As a
result, the GFS and NAM both produce a narrow band of snow and low
ceilings/visibility between I-72 and I-70 by late Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 281656
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 281656
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 281656
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 281656
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Made minor adjustments to the forecast for this afternoon and this
evening for the timing of the advancing snow. The latest radar
mosaic and infrared satellite loops show the snow slowly advancing
into central and southeast Missouri. The 12z Lincoln upper air
sounding indicated a lot of dry air that will need to be overcome
below 5,000 feet. NAM forecast soundings indicate that this dry
air will moisten quickly in central IL by late this afternoon.
However, this may be a bit too quick, so pushed back the beginning
of the snow until early evening in most of the forecast. The
exception will be in west central IL where late afternoon should
see the beginning of the snow.

A quick look at the latest 12z forecast runs of the NAM and GFS
indicate that the strongest isentropic lift should tap increasing
low level moisture to result in the higher snow amounts south of a
Springfield to Danville line - and along/north of I-70 - where 5-6
inches of snow looks likely. Should be a sharp cutoff in southeast
Illinois, especially from Flora to Lawrenceville where a mix with
freezing rain is expected toward daybreak. This will temper snow
accumulations there to 2-3 inches. The same amounts are expected
north of a Canton/Peoria-El Paso line where the weaker upper level
support is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 281134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 281134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR conditions will continue thru 19z before we start to see cigs
and vsbys deteriorate from southwest to northeast as the next weather
system approaches our area with snow. Once the snow begins, most of
the forecast soundings for our area indicate a rapid decrease in
cigs and vsbys late this afternoon with mainly IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight thru Sunday. Surface winds are expected to remain light today
and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less generally out of the east
to southeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 280856
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight. Then in
the morning, beginning at SPI and then spreading east, lower
clouds around 5-6kft will move into the area and effect all the
TAFs. Now looks like the snow will arrive little sooner and begin
to effect the TAFs in the late afternoon. So will be bring snow
into SPI at 21Z and then the other sites after that. Conditions at
the beginning will be IFR but then 3hrs later, conditions will
drop to LIFR for SPI/DEC/CMI. With heaviest snow being along just
south of I-72, PIA and BMI conditions will not be as bad as the
other three. So, will keep IFR conditions at PIA and then LIFR
conditions at BMI, just a little better than at SPI/DEC/CMI.
Models showing a short break in intensity of the snow late
evening, but for now, will not indicate that in the TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become easterly,
then southeasterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain less than 10kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 280856
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

First of two significant winter weather systems poised to begin
spreading across the area later today. Latest water vapor imagery
showing an upper trough along the Montana/North Dakota border, with
a strong southern stream jet across the southern tier of states.
Upper low over Oregon will be sinking southward into California,
which will help orient the southern stream into a southwest-
northeast configuration in time, with various disturbances riding
along it toward our area.

Latest guidance indicates the morning hours will remain dry, but
rapid development of light snow is expected to our southwest toward
midday as isentropic lift strengthens into the afternoon. The
forecast was updated during the evening to hit the PoP`s harder
during the afternoon, and have kept this basic philosophy with some
minor refinements. Bulk of the snow threat will be from this evening
into Sunday afternoon. However, the models have continued with their
slight southward trend in the 00Z runs, shifting more into the I-72
to I-70 corridor. Will issue a winter weather advisory for most of
the area except the extreme northwest CWA during this period. While
we cannot rule out some areas seeing just over 6 inches, the
duration of it (about 24 hours) would be too long to justify a
winter storm warning. However, the general thought is more of a
broad 4-6 inch total, with lesser amounts across the northwest and
southeast parts of the CWA. There also starts to be a precip type
question on Sunday. Forecast soundings north of I-70 generally
support all snow, but a rain/snow mix is more likely along and south
by late morning as temperatures rise just above freezing. Have also
added a short period of freezing rain toward Flora and Lawrenceville
during the morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the southeast CWA during the
evening on Sunday, with Monday dry as an area of high pressure moves
overhead.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

An active split flow pattern to amplify into a large central U.S.
trof by the middle of the week as energy from the northern stream
phases with the southern stream upper wave. Very dynamic subtropical
jet will aid in the strong moisture transport northward into the
Midwest starting late Monday ahead of our next weather maker with
precipitable water values by Tuesday in the 1-1.25 inch range, some
2-3 standard deviations above normal for early March. This will be a
concern for area rivers and streams as the snow melt combined with
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall will lead to significant rises along many
of our basins by midweek.

Strong warm advection/isentropic ascent will lead to a rapid increase
in clouds late Monday night with precipitation breaking out late
evening or just after midnight. Models have trended a bit slower with
the onset of the precip but all forecast soundings continue to suggest
a period of sleet and freezing rain will develop from southwest to
northeast late in the evening and encompass most of our forecast area
by morning. Ice accumulations Monday night still look as if it will
average a tenth of an inch or less with temperatures slowly rising
overnight. Have most of the area above freezing by 15z/9am Tuesday
morning with rain expected for the remainder of the day with even
some isolated thunder possible in the south as forecast soundings
across southern Illinois indicate some elevated instability during
the afternoon hours as the deepening surface low tracks to our north
dragging a cold front through our area by evening.

The strong surface low will push well to our north but the boundary
will start to slow down as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest POPs will shift into
southeast Illinois Tuesday night into Wednesday when models indicate
another wave to push east across the southern Plains and at the same
time an intensifying jet with the right rear quadrant and enhanced
upper level divergence/lift over the Ohio River valley during the
day Wednesday. In response to the upper wave and jet lift, models
indicate a surge northeast with precip again by Wednesday afternoon
which would bring the threat for snow to southeast Illinois into
the late afternoon or early evening hours before the lift departs
Wednesday night. GFS is a bit more progressive with the wave and
does not show as much precip building back to the north as the
ECMWF. For now will continue to support the more conservative look
to the GFS with just chance POPs over southeast IL during the day
with just slight chances for light snow Wednesday night as the
system pulls away from our area.

After that, colder air moves in for a brief stint as high pressure
settles over the region on Thursday with our coldest overnight lows
Thursday morning when we will see single digits CWA-wide. The cold
air will not hang around very long as the surface high slips off to
our east by Friday as a northern stream shortwave tracks to our
north for the end of the week. This will bring a southerly flow back
into our area with afternoon temperatures by Friday rising back into
the 30s, with 30s and 40s by Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across our area Saturday afternoon. No significant rain or snow is
expected with the late week shortwave.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight. Then in
the morning, beginning at SPI and then spreading east, lower
clouds around 5-6kft will move into the area and effect all the
TAFs. Now looks like the snow will arrive little sooner and begin
to effect the TAFs in the late afternoon. So will be bring snow
into SPI at 21Z and then the other sites after that. Conditions at
the beginning will be IFR but then 3hrs later, conditions will
drop to LIFR for SPI/DEC/CMI. With heaviest snow being along just
south of I-72, PIA and BMI conditions will not be as bad as the
other three. So, will keep IFR conditions at PIA and then LIFR
conditions at BMI, just a little better than at SPI/DEC/CMI.
Models showing a short break in intensity of the snow late
evening, but for now, will not indicate that in the TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become easterly,
then southeasterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain less than 10kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 280543
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight. Then in
the morning, beginning at SPI and then spreading east, lower
clouds around 5-6kft will move into the area and effect all the
TAFs. Now looks like the snow will arrive little sooner and begin
to effect the TAFs in the late afternoon. So will be bring snow
into SPI at 21z and then the other sites after that. Conditions at
the beginning will be IFR but then 3hrs later, conditions will
drop to LIFR for SPI/DEC/CMI. With heaviest snow being along just
south of I-72, PIA and BMI conditions will not be as bad as the
other three. So, will keep IFR conditions at PIA and then LIFR
conditions at BMI, just a little better than at SPI/DEC/CMI.
Models showing a short break in intensity of the snow late
evening, but for now, will not indicate that in the TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become easterly,
then southeasterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 280543
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight. Then in
the morning, beginning at SPI and then spreading east, lower
clouds around 5-6kft will move into the area and effect all the
TAFs. Now looks like the snow will arrive little sooner and begin
to effect the TAFs in the late afternoon. So will be bring snow
into SPI at 21z and then the other sites after that. Conditions at
the beginning will be IFR but then 3hrs later, conditions will
drop to LIFR for SPI/DEC/CMI. With heaviest snow being along just
south of I-72, PIA and BMI conditions will not be as bad as the
other three. So, will keep IFR conditions at PIA and then LIFR
conditions at BMI, just a little better than at SPI/DEC/CMI.
Models showing a short break in intensity of the snow late
evening, but for now, will not indicate that in the TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become easterly,
then southeasterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 280543
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight. Then in
the morning, beginning at SPI and then spreading east, lower
clouds around 5-6kft will move into the area and effect all the
TAFs. Now looks like the snow will arrive little sooner and begin
to effect the TAFs in the late afternoon. So will be bring snow
into SPI at 21z and then the other sites after that. Conditions at
the beginning will be IFR but then 3hrs later, conditions will
drop to LIFR for SPI/DEC/CMI. With heaviest snow being along just
south of I-72, PIA and BMI conditions will not be as bad as the
other three. So, will keep IFR conditions at PIA and then LIFR
conditions at BMI, just a little better than at SPI/DEC/CMI.
Models showing a short break in intensity of the snow late
evening, but for now, will not indicate that in the TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and then become easterly,
then southeasterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain less than 10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 280302 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MID
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS
TIL IN THE MORNING, AFTER 12Z. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5KFT
IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THAT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAST, SO SILL NOT BE
ADDING THIS WITH THESE TAFS. CURRENT AGREEMENT IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE TIL AROUND 00Z OR LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...AUTEN









000
FXUS63 KILX 280302 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MID
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS
TIL IN THE MORNING, AFTER 12Z. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5KFT
IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THAT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAST, SO SILL NOT BE
ADDING THIS WITH THESE TAFS. CURRENT AGREEMENT IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE TIL AROUND 00Z OR LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...AUTEN









000
FXUS63 KILX 280302 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MID
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS
TIL IN THE MORNING, AFTER 12Z. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5KFT
IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THAT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAST, SO SILL NOT BE
ADDING THIS WITH THESE TAFS. CURRENT AGREEMENT IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE TIL AROUND 00Z OR LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...AUTEN










000
FXUS63 KILX 280302 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH COULD STILL GET QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, SO UPDATED TEMPS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE. ALSO UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN INDICATES THE SNOW
COULD START IN THE LATER AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT
THAT. UPDATE WILL BE SEND SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER
PROJECTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO STRENGTHEN TO 1045 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN PA BY 12Z/6 AM SAT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
18Z/NOON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL RIDGING BACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/3 PM
SAT AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW DURING
TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING IN LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE COLDER TEMPS THERE WITH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL IL AND UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. DEWPOINTS ONLY RANGE FROM 4 BELOW TO 4
ABOVE ZERO. FAVORED THE COLDER MAV LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7 BELOW NW OF LINCOLN. LOWS OF
4-9F IN SOUTHEAST IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE, BUT
THERE HAS STILL BEEN SOME IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. THIS HAS
ESPECIALLY BEEN TRUE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 FROM LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES EJECTING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR OUR INITIAL SYSTEM, IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MORE COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOWS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE TOO LOW AND/OR FALL OVER TOO LONG A DURATION TO REACH
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE CLOSER AND TARGET
AREA CAN BE SELECTED A LITTLE BETTER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS OUR RECENT CANADIAN HIGHS HAVE
BEEN. THEN, A LARGE & FAIRLY WELL PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF, SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER, THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND SO QUICKLY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF
LATE AS WELL AS MORE CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICE THREAT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

COOLER/QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MID
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS
TIL IN THE MORNING, AFTER 12Z. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5KFT
IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THAT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAST, SO SILL NOT BE
ADDING THIS WITH THESE TAFS. CURRENT AGREEMENT IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
NOT ARRIVE TIL AROUND 00Z OR LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...AUTEN










000
FXUS63 KILX 280300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Clouds are slowly advancing over the area this evening, but
thicker clouds are still forecast to arrive late tonight.
Overnight lows in the north could still get quite cold with mostly
clear skies and calm winds, so updated temps for that. Otherwise,
remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will be send shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 280300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Clouds are slowly advancing over the area this evening, but
thicker clouds are still forecast to arrive late tonight.
Overnight lows in the north could still get quite cold with mostly
clear skies and calm winds, so updated temps for that. Otherwise,
remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will be send shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 280300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Clouds are slowly advancing over the area this evening, but
thicker clouds are still forecast to arrive late tonight.
Overnight lows in the north could still get quite cold with mostly
clear skies and calm winds, so updated temps for that. Otherwise,
remainder of forecast looks fine. Update will be send shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 272352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 272352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 272352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 272352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will move into the area this evening, followed by mid
clouds around 10kft around midnight. Not expecting lower clouds
til in the morning, after 12z. Cloud heights will be around 5kft
in the morning and should remain around that the rest of the TAF
period. The 18z run of the NAM-WRF is bringing the snow into the
area during the afternoon, but this seems too fast, so sill not be
adding this with these TAFs. Current agreement is that the snow will
not arrive til around 00Z or later. Winds will be light and
variable tonight and then become east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 272057
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 272057
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 272057
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 272057
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Strong 1040 mb arctic high pressure near the IA/MO/IL border
projected by latest forecast models to strengthen to 1045 mb as it
moves east to northern PA by 12Z/6 am Sat and mid Atlantic states by
18Z/noon Sat. High pressure ridge still ridging back west into
central/northern IL through midday Saturday. This will continue dry
weather across central and southeast IL through at least 21Z/3 pm
Sat afternoon. Mid and high clouds to increase from the wsw during
tonight with low clouds spreading in late Sat morning and afternoon.
Less cloud cover over northern counties tonight especially this
evening will give colder temps there with snow pack and light winds.
Temps currently in low to mid teens central IL and upper teens to
near 20F in southeast IL. Dewpoints only range from 4 below to 4
above zero. Favored the colder MAV lows tonight especialy over the
northern counties with lows Zero to 7 below nw of Lincoln. Lows of
4-9F in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Complex and active weather pattern is expected to impact central and
southeast Illinois from later Saturday into the middle of next week.
Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the big picture, but
there has still been some important run-to-run variability. This has
especially been true with the heaviest snow axis for Saturday night
into Sunday and with the thermal profiles for the next system Monday
night into Wednesday.

A vigorous upper wave is currently diving down the west coast of the
United States, and this will eventually help to cause downstream
southwesterly flow across much of the lower 48 from later Saturday
into the middle of next week. This development will result in
numerous disturbances ejecting through the vicinity of the forecast
area.

For our initial system, impacting the area Saturday night through
Sunday, the forcing will be provided more by a northern stream
disturbance that will dive across the Midwest. However, the
developing southwesterly flow from the Pacific wave will help
transport more copious moisture into the region than would normally
be expected ahead of a northern stream wave approaching from the
northwest. The upshot is that an 18-24 hour period of snow will
spread across the area beginning Saturday night and continuing
through Sunday. A swath of 4-6 inch snows appears likely across
parts of central Illinois, fairly close to the I-72 corridor, with
significantly lower amounts to the north and south of this axis.
Thermal profiles suggest a rain/snow mix is possible south of I-70
Sunday afternoon.

Do not plan to issue any winter weather headlines with the initial
system at this time, and will continue to highlight in a Special
Weather Statement. Current indications suggest snowfall totals will
be too low and/or fall over too long a duration to reach
watch/warning criteria. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be
needed, but will wait until the system is a little closer and target
area can be selected a little better.

High pressure will build across the area Sunday night into Monday,
although it will not be as cold as our recent Canadian highs have
been. Then, a large & fairly well phased northern/southern stream
trof will produce another round of precipitation across the area
Monday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the trof, significant warming
is anticipated locally and will result in much of the associated
precipitation falling in liquid form. However, the near surface
temperatures will not respond so quickly given the cold weather of
late as well as more considerable snow cover that should be in
place. This is likely to result in some sleet and/or freezing rain,
especially Monday night and early Tuesday. While it is too early to
pinpoint the significance of the ice threat, it will need to be
watched closely.

Cooler/quieter weather will return for the second half of next week
in the wake of the major trof. Temperatures will not be as cold as
the past few days, but should still average well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 271752
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 271752
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 271752
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 271752
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions to continue across the central IL airports next 24
hours through 18Z/noon Sat. Few stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon especially in eastern IL per RUC/NAM curule. Cirrus
clouds to spread ene across central IL this afternoon with broken
ceilings developing. Ceilings will gradually lower during tonight
with mid level clouds and then to 5-10k ft during Sat morning.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO/southn IA and
west central IL to drift east into ohio river valley tonight and
continue the fair wx over the region through Sat morning. Light
winds into tonight will become ESE 4-8 kts by Sat morning. No fog
is expected tonight due to very dry arctic airmass.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 271646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 271646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 271646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 271646
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Wind chill advisory over portions of central IL expired at 10 am and
updated the forecast for this expiration. Coldest wind chills late
this morning are 5 above to 14 below zero over central IL. Strong
1041 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO, southern IA into
west central IL will drift east across central IL this afternoon
and into the Ohio river valley tonight. This will provide dry wx
through tonight along with cold temperatures and lighter winds.
Highs in the mid teens central IL and upper teens south of I-70.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies as few stratocumulus clouds appear and
thin cirrus clouds increase this afternoon especially southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 271104
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
504 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 271104
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
504 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period (12z Sat). High
pressure will drift over the area today bringing a mostly clear sky
and light winds. As the high pushes off to our east later tonight,
look for surface winds to become easterly but remain light into
Saturday morning with speeds of 5 kts or less with a gradual increase
in clouds above 20,000 feet.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 270918
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
around 4.5kft are still effecting BMI/DEC/CMI late tonight but are
slowly moving southeast and should clear BMI and DEC by 06z, and
CMI by 09z. Will keep a 2hr TEMPO group for DEC and CMI just
because it seems these clouds are just lingering and will not go
quickly. Then clear skies should prevail remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be northwest overnight and then become light
and variable tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 270918
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as
high pressure builds into the region.  Early morning wind-chills
will range from 10 to 20 below zero across the northern half of the
KILX CWA, where a Wind-Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10am.  Abundant sunshine will prevail: however, temperatures will
struggle to climb into the teens.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Plenty of challenges in the extended as an active southwesterly flow
pattern brings several rounds of precip from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

As a vigorous short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor
imagery off the coast of Washington digs southward, weak ridging
will develop downstream across the central and eastern CONUS and a
baroclinic zone will lift northward accordingly.  This boundary will
become quasi-stationary across central Illinois and will serve as
the focusing mechanism for the first round of precip Saturday night
into Sunday.  A piece of energy will eject northeastward from the
amplifying upper low over the Southwest US on Saturday, tracking
along the front Saturday night into Sunday.  Forecast soundings
indicate a very dry airmass initially, but once sufficient
moistening occurs, thermal profiles support snow across central and
southeast Illinois Saturday night into Sunday.  As surface flow
becomes more southerly, temperatures will warm into the lower 30s
across much of the area on Sunday and into the middle to upper 30s
across the SE CWA.  Precip should remain in the form of wet snow
throughout the day, with a transition to rain along/south of I-70.
As the first wave exits the region, precip will gradually come to an
end from west to east Sunday evening.  Models are in fairly good
agreement with the track and timing of this feature, although a
slight southward shift in the highest QPF axis has been noted.  GEM
continues to be the furthest south, focusing the heaviest precip
across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.  Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF are further north across the heart of central
Illinois.  Will have to watch future model runs to see if further
southward shifts occur, but for right now, it appears the entire
KILX CWA will see a substantial snowfall.  Exact amounts are still
in question, but accumulations in excess of 4 inches are likely
north of the I-70 corridor.

A lull in the precip will occur late Sunday night through Monday as
high pressure temporarily takes control of the weather.  As the high
moves off to the east, a stronger wave will eject northeastward from
the prevailing Southwest CONUS trough early next week.  Timing
discrepancies still exist, with the ECMWF lagging about 12 hours
behind the GFS.  This could have major implications on precip type,
as the cold low-level airmass will likely be difficult to initially
dislodge, especially given the presence of a fresh snow-cover.  For
now will follow the more consistent GFS, which spreads precip into
the area Monday night.  Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm
layer developing aloft, with max temps in the layer reaching 5-10C
by 12z Tue.  With surface temps hovering in the upper 20s, freezing
rain and sleet will be a concern as the precip spreads from
southwest to northeast across the area Monday night.  As deepening
surface low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong low-level
WAA will boost temps above freezing Tuesday morning, bringing en end
to the threat for icy precip.  Rain will fall through the remainder
of the day Tuesday before coming to an end as a period of light snow
Tuesday night as colder air arrives behind the departing system.  If
the slower ECMWF pans out, rain may continue through Tuesday night
and Wednesday as well.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
around 4.5kft are still effecting BMI/DEC/CMI late tonight but are
slowly moving southeast and should clear BMI and DEC by 06z, and
CMI by 09z. Will keep a 2hr TEMPO group for DEC and CMI just
because it seems these clouds are just lingering and will not go
quickly. Then clear skies should prevail remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be northwest overnight and then become light
and variable tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 270539
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Small area of clouds continues to slowly move south this evening.
Also, some isolated flurries are also still occurring under this
cloud cover. Expect this to continue, mainly in eastern areas of
the CWA. This will eventually clear up overnight. Current forecast
has a good handle on this and with temp trends the rest of the
night. No update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
around 4.5kft are still effecting BMI/DEC/CMI late tonight but are
slowly moving southeast and should clear BMI and DEC by 06z, and
CMI by 09z. Will keep a 2hr TEMPO group for DEC and CMI just
because it seems these clouds are just lingering and will not go
quickly. Then clear skies should prevail remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be northwest overnight and then become light
and variable tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 270539
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Small area of clouds continues to slowly move south this evening.
Also, some isolated flurries are also still occurring under this
cloud cover. Expect this to continue, mainly in eastern areas of
the CWA. This will eventually clear up overnight. Current forecast
has a good handle on this and with temp trends the rest of the
night. No update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
around 4.5kft are still effecting BMI/DEC/CMI late tonight but are
slowly moving southeast and should clear BMI and DEC by 06z, and
CMI by 09z. Will keep a 2hr TEMPO group for DEC and CMI just
because it seems these clouds are just lingering and will not go
quickly. Then clear skies should prevail remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be northwest overnight and then become light
and variable tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 270300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Small area of clouds continues to slowly move south this evening.
Also, some isolated flurries are also still occurring under this
cloud cover. Expect this to continue, mainly in eastern areas of
the CWA. This will eventually clear up overnight. Current forecast
has a good handle on this and with temp trends the rest of the
night. No update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

clouds and light snow showers continue at SPI/DEC/CMI. When the
snow occurs, cigs are MVFR and vis is below 5SM. PIA and BMI just
have clouds, but VFR levels. All sites will remain mostly cloudy
most of the evening and since clouds are not diurnal, they will
continue for several hours after sunset. So, think clearing will
occur close to midnight. With all the low level moisture around
tomorrow, believe scattered lower SC or CU will develop in the
morning. Winds will be north-northwest early and then become
northwest close to midnight. With ridging over the area tomorrow,
winds will be light.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 270300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Small area of clouds continues to slowly move south this evening.
Also, some isolated flurries are also still occurring under this
cloud cover. Expect this to continue, mainly in eastern areas of
the CWA. This will eventually clear up overnight. Current forecast
has a good handle on this and with temp trends the rest of the
night. No update planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

clouds and light snow showers continue at SPI/DEC/CMI. When the
snow occurs, cigs are MVFR and vis is below 5SM. PIA and BMI just
have clouds, but VFR levels. All sites will remain mostly cloudy
most of the evening and since clouds are not diurnal, they will
continue for several hours after sunset. So, think clearing will
occur close to midnight. With all the low level moisture around
tomorrow, believe scattered lower SC or CU will develop in the
morning. Winds will be north-northwest early and then become
northwest close to midnight. With ridging over the area tomorrow,
winds will be light.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 262348
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

clouds and light snow showers continue at SPI/DEC/CMI. When the
snow occurs, cigs are MVFR and vis is below 5SM. PIA and BMI just
have clouds, but VFR levels. All sites will remain mostly cloudy
most of the evening and since clouds are not diurnal, they will
continue for several hours after sunset. So, think clearing will
occur close to midnight. With all the low level moisture around
tomorrow, believe scattered lower SC or CU will develop in the
morning. Winds will be north-northwest early and then become
northwest close to midnight. With ridging over the area tomorrow,
winds will be light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 262348
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

clouds and light snow showers continue at SPI/DEC/CMI. When the
snow occurs, cigs are MVFR and vis is below 5SM. PIA and BMI just
have clouds, but VFR levels. All sites will remain mostly cloudy
most of the evening and since clouds are not diurnal, they will
continue for several hours after sunset. So, think clearing will
occur close to midnight. With all the low level moisture around
tomorrow, believe scattered lower SC or CU will develop in the
morning. Winds will be north-northwest early and then become
northwest close to midnight. With ridging over the area tomorrow,
winds will be light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 262348
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

clouds and light snow showers continue at SPI/DEC/CMI. When the
snow occurs, cigs are MVFR and vis is below 5SM. PIA and BMI just
have clouds, but VFR levels. All sites will remain mostly cloudy
most of the evening and since clouds are not diurnal, they will
continue for several hours after sunset. So, think clearing will
occur close to midnight. With all the low level moisture around
tomorrow, believe scattered lower SC or CU will develop in the
morning. Winds will be north-northwest early and then become
northwest close to midnight. With ridging over the area tomorrow,
winds will be light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 262049
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 262049
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 262049
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 262049
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 261801
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Updated the forecast at mid morning for ending of the winter
weather advisory over parts of central IL. Light snow will
diminish to flurries late this morning and afternoon with less
than a half inch of additional snow se of the IL river.
Temperatures currently near highs today ranging from near 15F nw
of IL river to mid 20s in southeast IL. North winds 10-20 mph will
cause temperatures to slowly fall this afternoon with some blowing
snow in open rural areas. Alberta clipper system will exit se of
IL today with light snow diminishing this afternoon. Some clearing
of low clouds nw of IL river by Knox, Stark and Schuyler counties.
But another short wave moving se toward IL this afternoon to
likely keep low clouds around rest of today over most of central
and southeast IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 261801
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Updated the forecast at mid morning for ending of the winter
weather advisory over parts of central IL. Light snow will
diminish to flurries late this morning and afternoon with less
than a half inch of additional snow se of the IL river.
Temperatures currently near highs today ranging from near 15F nw
of IL river to mid 20s in southeast IL. North winds 10-20 mph will
cause temperatures to slowly fall this afternoon with some blowing
snow in open rural areas. Alberta clipper system will exit se of
IL today with light snow diminishing this afternoon. Some clearing
of low clouds nw of IL river by Knox, Stark and Schuyler counties.
But another short wave moving se toward IL this afternoon to
likely keep low clouds around rest of today over most of central
and southeast IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 261648
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1048 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Updated the forecast at mid morning for ending of the winter
weather advisory over parts of central IL. Light snow will
diminish to flurries late this morning and afternoon with less
than a half inch of additional snow se of the IL river.
Temperatures currently near highs today ranging from near 15F nw
of IL river to mid 20s in southeast IL. North winds 10-20 mph will
cause temperatures to slowly fall this afternoon with some blowing
snow in open rural areas. Alberta clipper system will exit se of
IL today with light snow diminishing this afternoon. Some clearing
of low clouds nw of IL river by Knox, Stark and Schuyler counties.
But another short wave moving se toward IL this afternoon to
likely keep low clouds around rest of today over most of central
and southeast IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mostly MVFR conditions in -sn and low ceilings across central IL
TAF sites this morning. A few sites in IFR vsbys across the
heavier band from KSPI-KCMI. Gradually improving conditions
moving in from the NW as the system moves southward. By 18-19Z,
snowfall intensity to diminish substantially so expecting most
significant vsby restrictions to end while ceilings remain near
MVFR thresholds through the afternoon. Ceilings likely to scatter
out overnight. Winds NNE 12-14 kts until 00-03Z decreasing to 4-8
kts overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 261148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mostly MVFR conditions in -sn and low ceilings across central IL
TAF sites this morning. A few sites in IFR vsbys across the
heavier band from KSPI-KCMI. Gradually improving conditions
moving in from the NW as the system moves southward. By 18-19Z,
snowfall intensity to diminish substantially so expecting most
significant vsby restrictions to end while ceilings remain near
MVFR thresholds through the afternoon. Ceilings likely to scatter
out overnight. Winds NNE 12-14 kts until 00-03Z decreasing to 4-8
kts overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 261148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mostly MVFR conditions in -sn and low ceilings across central IL
TAF sites this morning. A few sites in IFR vsbys across the
heavier band from KSPI-KCMI. Gradually improving conditions
moving in from the NW as the system moves southward. By 18-19Z,
snowfall intensity to diminish substantially so expecting most
significant vsby restrictions to end while ceilings remain near
MVFR thresholds through the afternoon. Ceilings likely to scatter
out overnight. Winds NNE 12-14 kts until 00-03Z decreasing to 4-8
kts overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 261148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mostly MVFR conditions in -sn and low ceilings across central IL
TAF sites this morning. A few sites in IFR vsbys across the
heavier band from KSPI-KCMI. Gradually improving conditions
moving in from the NW as the system moves southward. By 18-19Z,
snowfall intensity to diminish substantially so expecting most
significant vsby restrictions to end while ceilings remain near
MVFR thresholds through the afternoon. Ceilings likely to scatter
out overnight. Winds NNE 12-14 kts until 00-03Z decreasing to 4-8
kts overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 261148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over southern Missouri,
with light snow falling from the Saint Louis area northeastward
across much of central Illinois. The exception is along/south of the
I-70 corridor, where the atmospheric column remains unsaturated
and snow has been unable to reach the ground thus far.  Low will
continue to dissipate this morning: however, high-res models
suggest the snow will persist through midday before gradually
tapering off and coming to an end from west to east during the
afternoon.  Will carry categorical PoPs this morning from the
Illinois River eastward to the I-57 corridor where snow will be
ongoing.  Further southeast, will only mention chance PoPs across
the far SE CWA around Olney and Lawrenceville as precip will tend
to diminish as it tries to work into this area later this morning.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, generally one half inch
or less.  Breezy and colder conditions will develop behind the
departing low.  High temperatures will mainly be in the teens and
lower 20s, but wind-chill values will hover in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

1044mb high currently over Saskatchewan will build southeastward
tonight, reaching Iowa by 12z Fri.  As the high approaches, skies
will clear from west to east and winds will subside.  Given these
conditions and the presence of a fresh snow cover across the W/NW
KILX CWA, radiational cooling will result in bitterly cold sub-zero
overnight lows.  Even though winds will become light, they will
remain just strong enough to create wind-chill readings from 10 to
20 below zero.  End result will likely be a Wind Chill Advisory
across much of the area, but will hold off issuing until after the
current Winter Weather Advisory for snow expires this morning.

After a period of cold/dry weather Friday into Saturday, things get
more active through the remainder of the extended as southwesterly
flow develops across the central CONUS.  This flow regime will bring
warmer, but more unsettled conditions into Illinois beginning late
this weekend and persisting into the middle of next week.  A
baroclinic zone will lift northward into central/southern Illinois
and become stationary as it becomes parallel with the upper-level
flow.  Numerous waves are expected to track along the boundary,
setting the stage for periodic rounds of precip.  The first wave
will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, with models in very good
agreement that most of the precip across the area will be in the
form of snow.  Will carry likely PoPs Saturday night and Sunday
accordingly.  With ample deep-layer moisture flowing northward into
the region and strong lift focusing along/north of the boundary,
several inches of snow will accumulate across central Illinois.
It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals, but amounts in
excess of 4 inches are likely north of the I-70 corridor.

The snow will taper off an come to an end Sunday night as the
initial wave passes off to the east and the boundary gets
temporarily pushed further southward.  High pressure will build into
the area on Monday, bringing cold and dry conditions.  As the high
departs, a stronger wave will quickly approach from the southwest
Monday night into Tuesday.  While model discrepancies still exist,
the 00z Feb 26 suite has come into better agreement with surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado
Monday evening tracking northeastward into northern Indiana by
Tuesday night.  This particular track will make for a challenging
precip type forecast across central Illinois as quite a bit of WAA
will occur ahead of the system.  GFS forecast soundings show a
pronounced warm layer developing aloft, with max temps reaching the
4-8C range by late Monday night.  This would strongly suggest liquid
precip.  The problem will be with the low-level thermal profile, as a
significant snow cover from the Saturday night/Sunday wave will
likely keep surface temps colder than models currently indicate.
Given this, think freezing rain/sleet may be an issue Monday night
into Tuesday morning before low-level temps warm sufficiently to
support all rain by midday Tuesday.  High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s far north to the middle 40s south of I-70.
As the low pulls away, colder air will filter back into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Could see a little light snow before
the precip ends Tuesday night, with cold/dry conditions returning for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Mostly MVFR conditions in -sn and low ceilings across central IL
TAF sites this morning. A few sites in IFR vsbys across the
heavier band from KSPI-KCMI. Gradually improving conditions
moving in from the NW as the system moves southward. By 18-19Z,
snowfall intensity to diminish substantially so expecting most
significant vsby restrictions to end while ceilings remain near
MVFR thresholds through the afternoon. Ceilings likely to scatter
out overnight. Winds NNE 12-14 kts until 00-03Z decreasing to 4-8
kts overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton







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