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000
FXUS63 KILX 281143
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON




000
FXUS63 KILX 281143
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON





000
FXUS63 KILX 281143
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON




000
FXUS63 KILX 281143
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON





000
FXUS63 KILX 280804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 280804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 280804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 280804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 280418
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 280418
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 280418
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 280150
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
850 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 280150
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
850 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 272308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 272308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 272308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 271957
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 271957
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 271957
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 271957
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 271807
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
107 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 271807
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
107 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT.  WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 271138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 271138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 271138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 271138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 270805
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 270805
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 270805
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 270404
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 270404
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 270404
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 270404
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1104 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 270152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
852 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 270152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
852 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEED COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS PAST HOUR. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW
OF OUR MORE FAVORED COLD SPOTS MAY SEE THE MERCURY BRIEFLY DIP
TO NEAR FREEZING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3AM
TO 7AM PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-74. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING UP ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL
AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
OTHER THAN THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE
DECLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT ZFP. AS A
RESULT...NO EVENING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 262303
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 262303
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 262020
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 262020
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 262020
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET AGAIN.  TODAYS MIXING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A BIT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS THE TEMPS APPROACH 35
DEGREES OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS.  SO...THE HIGHER RH AIRMASS IS COLOCATED WITH
WIND THAT WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG
AS THE WINDS HOLD OUT.  NO FOG MENTION FOR NOW...PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK PRODUCING A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

PATCHY MORNING FROST WILL START THE DAY FROM THE I-74 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
FORMING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE KEEPING PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/SE
ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. MAIN IMPACT FOR CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS PAST CENTRAL IL OVER THE
WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOIST SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERACTS
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 261757
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 261757
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 261757
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 261757
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY ALREADY PLUMMETING THE DWPTS
CONSIDERABLY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS TONIGHT
EFFICIENTLY. SO FAR, NOT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOG SET UP, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 261545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 261545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 261138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KILX 261138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 261138
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER





000
FXUS63 KILX 260831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CONDITIONS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED
FROM JUST NORTH OF RANTOUL AND BLOOMINGTON...NORTHWEST TO NEAR
GALESBURG. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT SHOULD PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 TO 15 KTS BY
DAWN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THRU ABOUT 22Z. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 260403
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1103 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CONDITIONS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LASTEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE BACKEDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED
FROM JUST NORTH OF RANTOUL AND BLOOMINGTON...NORTHWEST TO NEAR
GALESBURG. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT SHOULD PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 TO 15 KTS
BY DAWN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THRU ABOUT 22Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 260403
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1103 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CONDITIONS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LASTEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE BACKEDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED
FROM JUST NORTH OF RANTOUL AND BLOOMINGTON...NORTHWEST TO NEAR
GALESBURG. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT SHOULD PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 TO 15 KTS
BY DAWN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THRU ABOUT 22Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 260136
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 260136
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 252328
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 252328
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 252328
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 252028
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 252028
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 251804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 251804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 251804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS




000
FXUS63 KILX 251804
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS





000
FXUS63 KILX 251627
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SCATTERED HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. NAM TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE STRONG DEEP LIFT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AND PLAY HAVOC WITH CIGS. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. AS THE WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH MAY HAVE LOWERING CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WILL TRY TO TREND THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH SO MUCH UNCERTIANTY BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN PLACE THOUGH THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY
BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY BR VSBY DROPS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER




000
FXUS63 KILX 251627
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SCATTERED HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. NAM TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE STRONG DEEP LIFT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AND PLAY HAVOC WITH CIGS. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. AS THE WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH MAY HAVE LOWERING CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WILL TRY TO TREND THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH SO MUCH UNCERTIANTY BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN PLACE THOUGH THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY
BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY BR VSBY DROPS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER





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