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000
FXUS63 KILX 311549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
Cold front has moved through the area in the overnight hours, with
colder air and blustery winds. North/northwesterly winds up to and
in excess of 25 mph expected this afternoon, gusting to 30-35 mph.
Just shy of advisory criteria for the forecast area, but enough to
drop the wind chills into the 20s and 30s. Forecast on track
across the board. Early morning echos moving along the I-74
corridor btwn BMI and CMI have moved out to the east. Another
round of light precip (possibly a ra/sn mix) along the northern
half of the IL/IN border this afternoon as winds become
increasingly northerly and a fetch off of Lake Michigan enhances
some lake effect...and remnants may reach into the extreme east. Some
minor tweaks here and there in the forecast, and pulling the
morning wording...but overall, forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.

Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.

Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.

Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.

More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.

The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 311159
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.

Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.

Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.

Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.

More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A brief period of MVFR clouds around 2k FT will affect DEC and CMI
through 13-14z before mixing lifts the cloud deck into the VFR
range. Then VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the TAF
forecast. NW winds will increase early this morning with sustained
20-25kt and gusts to near 40kt at times by 16-17z.

The leading edge of a strong shortwave aloft could trigger a few
rain or snow showers between 14z and 18z for the northern taf
sights of PIA/BMI/CMI. Any snow would melt as it falls. Otherwise,
precipitation should be minimal at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocumulus should
begin to decrease in coverage and affect mainly areas east of I55
by afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake of the upper level
shortwave. Skies should become clear even over eastern areas
after 00z tonight. Surface winds will gradually diminish,
especially the gusts, toward evening with sustained winds of
12-15 kts after 02z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 310831
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

The passage of a strong cold front and upper level shortwave will
highlight the short term forecast. At 08z/3am the front had already
reached near the Illinois River Valley, with the upper wave centered
behind the front across Wisconsin. Very gusty northwest winds were
lagging behind the front by a couple of hours, so winds in our
counties will begin to increase by around sunrise, especially NW of
Lincoln. Wind gusts this afternoon will climb into the 30-40 mph
range, especially east of Peoria to Springfield. Spotty rain showers
or sprinkles were developing just ahead of the front, generally
along and east of the I-55 corridor at 3 am.

Spotty showers will continue to advance eastward with the front
today, then linger this afternoon as the upper level shortwave
affects eastern Illinois. As colder air arrives on brisk northwest
winds today, some of the light rain showers could change over to
snow showers for areas east of Champaign and north of Paris.

Highs today will likely occur this morning, as the colder air and
cloud cover prevent temperatures from rising much this afternoon.
Temps will likely become steady or slowly fall by midday in most
areas.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A potent Canadian shortwave will dive sse from Lake Superior and WI
across IN/KY tonight. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts
30-40 mph will diminish to 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 20
mph. This will advect in subfreezing temperatures of 25-30F and
bring a killing freeze to much of IL overnight until mid morning
Saturday. Will continue the freezing warning overnight until 9 am
Sat for central and southeast IL. Moisture flow off Lake MI could
bring a few snow showers near the IN border especially over
Vermilion county this evening. A taste of early winter weather for
Halloween Trick or Treaters this evening with wind chills slipping
into the low to mid 20s. Chilly highs in the mid 40s Saturday
despite a fair amount of sunshine, due to north winds 8-15 mph and
gusts 15 to 20 mph over eastern IL.

Strong Canadian high pressure of 1039 mb over ND will settle over IL
Saturday night as it slowly weakens with fair skies and light winds.
This will bring another hard freeze overnight Saturday night and
early Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20s, and
coldest east of I-57. Mostly sunny skies Sunday but still chilly
highs in the upper 40s to around 50F.

More unsettled weather pattern takes shape Monday-Wednesday as IL
gets in a southwesterly upper level flow with upper level ridge
shifting east of IL and strong upper level trof digging into the
southern Rockies. A frontal boundary will set up from the southern
Plains ne into the Ohio river valley Monday night through Wed and
bring increasing chances of showers. Cold front to move se across
central IL Tue when best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be. Have 20-30% chance of showers by Monday
afternoon west of I-55 as clouds increasing from the west during the
day. Then likely chances of showers develop during Monday night into
Tue and highest pops shift into southeast IL during Tue night and
Wed. Milder highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and 55-60F
Tue and Wed. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Slight chance of showers in southeast IL Wed
evening, otherwise drier weather is expected Wed night thru Friday
as dry west northwesterly flow trails the system with seasonable
highs still in the mid to upper 50s and near 60F in southeast IL.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 310406
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.

Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!

Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Two waves impacting the short term.  The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region.  Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature.  Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip.  Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF.  As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.

Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.

Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 310406
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.

Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!

Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Two waves impacting the short term.  The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region.  Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature.  Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip.  Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF.  As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.

Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.

Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR cigs in the
08z-12z time frame as a strong cold front tracks across the area.
Once the front shifts thru the area, strong northerly winds are
expected thru much of the day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to
30 kts with a few gusts around 35 kts at times. With the fropa, we
may see some scattered rain showers with the cigs lowering to
MVFR and a low probability for a brief period of IFR cigs with
any bands of rain that persist. Satellite data indicating cigs
around 2500 to 3500 feet north of the cold front over parts of
northern Iowa into central Wisconsin. Latest HRRR forecast indicates
the stratocumulus should begin to decrease in coverage and affect
mainly areas east of I55 by afternoon as subsidence develops in the
wake of the upper level shortwave. Surface winds will gradually
diminish, especially the gusts, towards evening with sustained winds
of 10 kts or less after 02z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 310137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Initial shortwave pushing across west central Illinois has brought
about some scattered showers this evening over most of our area.
A second and more potent upper wave seen on the water vapor loop
streaming south over the upper Great Lakes and that feature will
deepen in over the lower lakes tomorrow morning ushering much
colder air and strong northerly winds to the region. First band
of rain will shift into eastern and southeast Illinois this
evening with a second band of rain forecast to shift southeast
into our area along the quick moving cold front after midnight. 3
hourly pressure rises of 4 to 6 mb streaking southeast along the
cold front to our northwest and as the upper feature deepens in
over the lower lakes region, we should see some rather significant
pres rises develop just to our north and west which should bring
in the strong winds around sunrise across the north and during the
morning to the south.

Will continue to hold on to the POPs over most of the area until
that second wave tracks thru the area by Friday morning, with rain
chances then confined to far east and southeast Illinois. RAP and
HRRR indicating the potential for gusts of 40 to 45 mph tomorrow
morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area coupled
with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind chill readings
for the trick or treaters will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
tomorrow evening!

Have already sent out an updated ZFP to address the more widespread
nature of the precip earlier in the evening and will have another
update out by 900 pm to adjust the late evening wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Two waves impacting the short term.  The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region.  Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature.  Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip.  Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF.  As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.

Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.

Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Low VFR cigs expected thru the evening hours and then will have to
watch for the possibility for at least a brief period of MVFR cigs
with a cold frontal passage after 07z tonight with the main concern
after that being strong northerly winds on Friday. First batch of
rain tracking south-southeast across the area early this evening
and will continue with tempo groups over mainly the eastern TAF
sites for a few hours early this evening. We will probably see a
brief break in any precip chances later this evening before a much
stronger wave shifts south into the lower Great Lakes bringing
another threat for scattered showers and a wind shift into the
north at all TAF sites in the 07z-10z time frame. This is the time
frame where we may see a brief period of MVFR cigs but for now,
will only include a scattered group around 2500 feet. Once the
front shifts south of our area, surface winds will increase to
between 20 and 30 kts by mid morning with gusts to around 35 kts
at times.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 302306
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
606 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Two waves impacting the short term.  The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region.  Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature.  Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip.  Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF.  As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.

Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.

Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Low VFR cigs expected thru the evening hours and then will have to
watch for the possibility for at least a brief period of MVFR cigs
with a cold frontal passage after 07z tonight with the main concern
after that being strong northerly winds on Friday. First batch of
rain tracking south-southeast across the area early this evening
and will continue with tempo groups over mainly the eastern TAF
sites for a few hours early this evening. We will probably see a
brief break in any precip chances later this evening before a much
stronger wave shifts south into the lower Great Lakes bringing
another threat for scattered showers and a wind shift into the
north at all TAF sites in the 07z-10z time frame. This is the time
frame where we may see a brief period of MVFR cigs but for now,
will only include a scattered group around 2500 feet. Once the
front shifts south of our area, surface winds will increase to
between 20 and 30 kts by mid morning with gusts to around 35 kts
at times.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 302001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Two waves impacting the short term.  The first low is over western
Missouri and weak lift associated with weak frontogenesis sparking
some showers for the region.  Plenty of dry air in the area is also
helping to erode the showers and keep them more scattered in
nature.  Cooler air on the way, with another shot of cold air
deepening the trof aloft with the next wave later this evening.
This second wave acting a bit more like a cold front with the wind
shift to more north/northwesterly winds tonight and cold air, but
the models are having a hard time with precip.  Current precip is
overblown in the models, and the later wave (after midnight) is even
more sketchy with QPF.  As a result, pops are minimal in association
with the second wave...and instead follow the progression of the
current precip out to the east by midnight. Temps currently on the
cooler side of guidance as the temps have not dropped far enough in
the last 24 hours and that trend may continue, though the RH will be
plenty for clouds, if not for ongoing precip. Tightening pressure
gradient behind the boundary resulting in winds ramping up in the
early morning hours in advance of a blustery cold day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A vigorous cold Canadian shortwave will drop southward into the
Midwest by Friday morning. A strong cold front with this feature
will usher in much colder air to central Illinois for Friday, with
highs only reaching the 40s. North-northwest winds 20-30 mph with
gusts 35-40 mph will develop along and behind the cold front,
bringing wind chills into the 30s for the afternoon. Little
precipitation will remain behind the front, however slight chances
will remain near the IL/IN border. Forecast soundings in this area
indicate wet bulb temperatures below freezing to ground level below
the precipitation generation level, and this should allow for light
snow or mixed rain and snow reaching the ground Friday afternoon and
evening. Breezy and cold conditions will continue into the evening
for Halloween Trick or Treat conditions with temperatures dropping
quickly into the 30s and wind chill values into the 20s.

Friday night, light north winds will continue, while the cold air
mass results in temperatures reaching 25-30 degrees for the first
widespread freeze of the season. Have issued a freeze warning to
account for this.

Little warming is expected through Sunday morning, with another
freezing night expected. A mild and moist southwesterly low level
flow will develop late in the weekend through early next week as an
upper level ridge shifts eastward across Illinois and a deep trough
crosses the Rockies. This trough will bring good chances of showers
late Monday through tuesday night as the system moves into the Ohio
river valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and
Tue south of I-72. Drier weather is expected Wed night and Thu as
dry northwesterly flow trails the system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight Friday Night to 9 AM CDT Saturday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 301721
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Small wave moving into the Midwest this morning bringing some
showers across Missouri and into Illinois. Some rain showers
moving into the Jacksonville area early. Have adjusted the pops
for the next few hours for some showers in west central Illinois,
but plenty of dry air in the region will probably help to keep any
widespread precip at bay. Temperatures doing well with minimal
cloud cover to the east ahead of the scattered showers. No major
updates required, but have freshened up the hourly grids as well
as the pops in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.

MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growing season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.

The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Mostly VFR through the forecast period. Main issues will be the
afternoon showers that are out there currently. SPI may see a
shower early this afternoon...but the majority of the showers are
scattered, and in concert with a dry low level...will be eroding
somewhat. Main wave/front moving in overnight, bringing a second
chance for showers, though coverage is varied in the models, with
the NAM far drier with the front than the GFS. The HRRR is
starting to come in somewhere in between the two, but taking the
higher RH in the low levels and producing a swath of MVFR clouds
with the fropa. Will take that into account as well and drop the
cigs to the MVFR/VFR break point. Increasing gradient early behind
the boundary picking up the winds in the morning, well ahead of
normal timing for a mix down. Breezy 15-20kt northerly winds
ramping up by 12z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 301549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Small wave moving into the Midwest this morning bringing some
showers across Missouri and into Illinois. Some rain showers
moving into the Jacksonville area early. Have adjusted the pops
for the next few hours for some showers in west central Illinois,
but plenty of dry air in the region will probably help to keep any
widespread precip at bay. Temperatures doing well with minimal
cloud cover to the east ahead of the scattered showers. No major
updates required, but have freshened up the hourly grids as well
as the pops in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.

MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growing season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.

The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Believe VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Mid and high clouds currently advecting over the area this
morning; but lower clouds will begin to move into the area later
this morning and through the afternoon. Lines of showers over
northern parts of MO will advect into the area and begin effecting
central IL around the noon hour, and based on the models, looks
like on and off rain through tomorrow evening. Showers should have
entered the CWA by around 18z, and then continue to advect through
the CWA during the evening hours. QPF amount is small for this
afternoon and evening, but more pcpn is coming across northern
MO, and will be moving into the area around 18z. Winds will be
light and variable to start, but then become southerly ahead of
the boat that is out there. As the low pressure area pushes
through the area, winds will become variable at all sites. Then
north to northwest winds at 10kts or less. So will think about
what is ours and what is the churches.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 301146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.

MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growning season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.

The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Believe VFR conditons will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Mid and high clouds currently advecting over the area this
morning; but lower clouds will begin to move into the area later
this morning and through the afternoon. Lines of showers over
northern parts of MO will advect into the area and begin effecting
central IL around the noon hour, and based on the models, looks
like on and off rain through tomorrow evening. Showers should have
entered the CWA by around 18z, and then continue to advect through
the CWA during the evening hours. QPF amount is small for this
afternoon and evening, but more pcpn is coming across northern
MO, and will be moving into the area around 18z. Winds will be
light and variable to start, but then become southerly ahead of
the boat that is out there. As the low pressure area pushes
through the area, winds will become variable at all sites. Then
north to northwest winds at 10kts or less. So will think about
what is ours and what is the churches.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 300832
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.

MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growning season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.

The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

High pressure centered over Illinois late this evening will drift
off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly flow to develop
across the west. As the high shifts away from our area, mid and high
level clouds, now over central Iowa, will streak into central Illinois
after 08z. Forecast soundings and time height cross sections indicate
a gradual lowering and thickening of the clouds during the day Thursday
as a weather disturbance tracks across the region. A band of showers
will develop to the north of a weak storm system forecast to shift
well south of our area during the afternoon and evening hours.

Soundings continue to indicate low VFR cigs across the area Thursday
night before a secondary wave drops southeast into the lower Great
Lakes and deepens in over the region producing MVFR or lower cigs
after 06z Friday along with strong northerly winds. Surface winds
tonight will gradually become southerly but continue to be on the
light side and then become southeast to east during the day on
Thursday with speeds in the 5 to 10 kt range.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 300411
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1111 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Backedge of clouds now just east of Champaign and should gradually
exit the state by 03z. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over west
central Illinois has brought about the clearing trend early this
evening accompanied by a very light wind, resulting in temperatures
dropping off rather quickly over the past few hours. A few sites
have already dropped into the upper 30s with low to mid 40s being
reported over eastern Illinois where the clouds linger.

Latest satellite loop indicating some mid and high level clouds
streaking east-southeast across northwest Iowa early this evening
and based on the present movement, will get into west central
Illinois by 08 or 09z, effectively putting an end to the temp
decline in that area. Have made some adjustments to the early and
mid evening temperature trends in the grids with the coldest
readings thru about 07z-09z out west and 09z-11z east. Most of the
area will see some patchy frost with the main emphasis across the
east where the skies will be clear the longest. Other than the
temp adjustments this evening, no other changes made to the grids.
Should have an update out by 900 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

High pressure centered over Illinois late this evening will drift
off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly flow to develop
across the west. As the high shifts away from our area, mid and high
level clouds, now over central Iowa, will streak into central Illinois
after 08z. Forecast soundings and time height cross sections indicate
a gradual lowering and thickening of the clouds during the day Thursday
as a weather disturbance tracks across the region. A band of showers
will develop to the north of a weak storm system forecast to shift
well south of our area during the afternoon and evening hours.

Soundings continue to indicate low VFR cigs across the area Thursday
night before a secondary wave drops southeast into the lower Great
Lakes and deepens in over the region producing MVFR or lower cigs
after 06z Friday along with strong northerly winds. Surface winds
tonight will gradually become southerly but continue to be on the
light side and then become southeast to east during the day on
Thursday with speeds in the 5 to 10 kt range.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Update...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 300411
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1111 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Backedge of clouds now just east of Champaign and should gradually
exit the state by 03z. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over west
central Illinois has brought about the clearing trend early this
evening accompanied by a very light wind, resulting in temperatures
dropping off rather quickly over the past few hours. A few sites
have already dropped into the upper 30s with low to mid 40s being
reported over eastern Illinois where the clouds linger.

Latest satellite loop indicating some mid and high level clouds
streaking east-southeast across northwest Iowa early this evening
and based on the present movement, will get into west central
Illinois by 08 or 09z, effectively putting an end to the temp
decline in that area. Have made some adjustments to the early and
mid evening temperature trends in the grids with the coldest
readings thru about 07z-09z out west and 09z-11z east. Most of the
area will see some patchy frost with the main emphasis across the
east where the skies will be clear the longest. Other than the
temp adjustments this evening, no other changes made to the grids.
Should have an update out by 900 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

High pressure centered over Illinois late this evening will drift
off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly flow to develop
across the west. As the high shifts away from our area, mid and high
level clouds, now over central Iowa, will streak into central Illinois
after 08z. Forecast soundings and time height cross sections indicate
a gradual lowering and thickening of the clouds during the day Thursday
as a weather disturbance tracks across the region. A band of showers
will develop to the north of a weak storm system forecast to shift
well south of our area during the afternoon and evening hours.

Soundings continue to indicate low VFR cigs across the area Thursday
night before a secondary wave drops southeast into the lower Great
Lakes and deepens in over the region producing MVFR or lower cigs
after 06z Friday along with strong northerly winds. Surface winds
tonight will gradually become southerly but continue to be on the
light side and then become southeast to east during the day on
Thursday with speeds in the 5 to 10 kt range.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Update...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 300125
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
825 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Backedge of clouds now just east of Champaign and should gradually
exit the state by 03z. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over west
central Illinois has brought about the clearing trend early this
evening accompanied by a very light wind, resulting in temperatures
dropping off rather quickly over the past few hours. A few sites
have already dropped into the upper 30s with low to mid 40s being
reported over eastern Illinois where the clouds linger.

Latest satellite loop indicating some mid and high level clouds
streaking east-southeast across northwest Iowa early this evening
and based on the present movement, will get into west central
Illinois by 08 or 09z, effectively putting an end to the temp
decline in that area. Have made some adjustments to the early and
mid evening temperature trends in the grids with the coldest
readings thru about 07z-09z out west and 09z-11z east. Most of the
area will see some patchy frost with the main emphasis across the
east where the skies will be clear the longest. Other than the
temp adjustments this evening, no other changes made to the grids.
Should have an update out by 900 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Backedge
of stratocu deck pushing east of AAA and BMI and should be east
of CMI by 02z with a clear sky expected thru 09z before cirrus
and altocumulus clouds advance into west central IL in the 10z-
12z time frame. A weak wave of low pressure will push to our
southwest late tomorrow with clouds gradually lowering and
thickening to low VFR by the end of this forecast period. We
may see some scattered light showers develop during the afternoon
as well but coverage still looks to limited...so at this time will
add a VCSH to PIA and SPI in the 18z-21z time frame with rain
chances spreading further east by evening. With high pressure
over the forecast area tonight, look for light and variable winds
most of the night to turn more southeasterly on Thursday with
speeds increasing to 7 to 12 kts by afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 292327
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
627 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Backedge
of stratocu deck pushing east of AAA and BMI and should be east
of CMI by 02z with a clear sky expected thru 09z before cirrus
and altocumulus clouds advance into west central IL in the 10z-
12z time frame. A weak wave of low pressure will push to our
southwest late tomorrow with clouds gradually lowering and
thickening to low VFR by the end of this forecast period. We
may see some scattered light showers develop during the afternoon
as well but coverage still looks to limited...so at this time will
add a VCSH to PIA and SPI in the 18z-21z time frame with rain
chances spreading further east by evening. With high pressure
over the forecast area tonight, look for light and variable winds
most of the night to turn more southeasterly on Thursday with
speeds increasing to 7 to 12 kts by afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 292302
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
602 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Backedge
of stratocu deck pushing east of AAA and BMI and should be east
of CMI by 02z with a clear sky expected thru 09z before cirrus
and altocumulus clouds advance into west central IL in the 10z-
12z time frame. A weak wave of low pressure will push to our
southwest late tomorrow with clouds gradually lowering and
thickening to low VFR by the end of this forecast period. We
may see some scattered light showers develop during the afternoon
as well but coverage still looks to limited...so at this time will
add a VCSH to PIA and SPI in the 18z-21z time frame with rain
chances spreading further east by evening. With high pressure
over the forecast area tonight, look for light and variable winds
most of the night to turn more southeasterly on Thursday with
speeds increasing to 7 to 12 kts by afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 291935
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high continues to build into the region this evening.
Despite the quiet weather, a wave moving into the upper trof will
usher some moisture into ILX in the form of clouds.  Time heights
showing arrival of cirrus and a slow transition to more mid clouds
as the early morning hours progress.  Light and variable winds will
assist in efficient radiational  cooling under the clearer skies.
Frost threat is better in the eastern half of the state under the
ridge axis in the early morning hours. The winds slowly pick up a
more southerly component a few hours before dawn in the western
half, pushing slightly warmer air into the area and keeping the
temps from bottoming out.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is on tap across
central and southeast Illinois for the next several days. The
coldest period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze
likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Do not plan to go with a
Freeze Watch at this time since the freezing conditions are more
than 48 hours out in time, but will continue to highlight the risk
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story Graphics. While
this will be the first hard freeze across the forecast area, it is
"normal" (or late in many areas) for a first freeze to occur in late
October. Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal
with actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and Wind
Chill values around 30 degrees.

Other than the chilly temperatures, the main forecast concerns
revolve around rainfall chances tomorrow with a weak wave, as well
as with a stronger system for the beginning of the next work week.
For tomorrow, a short wave, currently digging southeast out of the
northern Rockies, is progged to pass just southwest of the forecast
area. A quick shot of WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of the wave,
mainly Thursday afternoon/early evening, should be able to squeeze
out some light showers. However, the rainfall is not expected to be
significant. A much stronger wave, currently diving into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great Lakes/Midwest
on Friday. While this system is potent, it will be moisture starved,
with most of the associated precipitation expected to fall
north/east of the forecast area as it passes through. However, this
system will be accompanied by gusty winds and will help usher in the
airmass that will provide our hard freeze for the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area by late in the
weekend into early next week. The ridge will break down by later
Monday into Tuesday as a strong disturbance of Pacific origin pushes
east toward the area. The frontal system driven by this wave will be
accompanied by showers. The risk of showers may be prolonged since
the front will become nearly parallel to the upper level flow and be
a slow mover. However, the model guidance is still not in good
agreement (or with great run-to-run consistency) regarding how quick
the front will ultimately be. So, how long the rainfall risk will
linger beyond Tuesday is still subject to debate.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR through the overnight. Some diurnal element to the clouds over
the north and central portions of the state. Even though some
clearing is expected tonight around sunset, more clouds will
continue to build into the region from the north. Cirrus after
midnight, spreading southward into the early morning hours. Time
heights showing a drop of the cigs steadily from 12z on...to more
of a low deck by mid day at the latest for all ILX terminals.
Starting the trend, with bkn in BMI CMI and PIA... sct in the
south through tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds through
the overnight becoming more southerly tomorrow morning as the
ridge axis slips eastward.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 291807
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
107 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly
giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool
conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the
region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north
of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the
highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a
major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.

Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.

Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR through the overnight. Some diurnal element to the clouds over
the north and central portions of the state. Even though some
clearing is expected tonight around sunset, more clouds will
continue to build into the region from the north. Cirrus after
midnight, spreading southward into the early morning hours. Time
heights showing a drop of the cigs steadily from 12z on...to more
of a low deck by mid day at the latest for all ILX terminals.
Starting the trend, with bkn in BMI CMI and PIA... sct in the
south through tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds through
the overnight becoming more southerly tomorrow morning as the
ridge axis slips eastward.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 291552
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly
giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool
conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the
region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north
of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the
highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a
major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.

Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.

Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 291143
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.

Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.

Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 290834
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
334 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.

Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.

Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp constrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period. Band of high
level clouds beginning to shift off to our east late this evening
with a clear sky expected over most of the area for the remainder
of the night. Forecast soundings for Wednesday still suggesting
some stratocumulus clouds developing by late morning with bases
in the 3500-4500 foot level. Surface winds will be westerly
tonight and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 290409
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri
has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our
area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after
midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover
over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit
slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck
shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks
to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the
forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the
minor changes by 910 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period. Band of high
level clouds beginning to shift off to our east late this evening
with a clear sky expected over most of the area for the remainder
of the night. Forecast soundings for Wednesday still suggesting
some stratocumulus clouds developing by late morning with bases
in the 3500-4500 foot level. Surface winds will be westerly
tonight and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 290409
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri
has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our
area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after
midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover
over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit
slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck
shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks
to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the
forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the
minor changes by 910 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period. Band of high
level clouds beginning to shift off to our east late this evening
with a clear sky expected over most of the area for the remainder
of the night. Forecast soundings for Wednesday still suggesting
some stratocumulus clouds developing by late morning with bases
in the 3500-4500 foot level. Surface winds will be westerly
tonight and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 290159
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri
has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our
area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after
midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover
over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit
slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck
shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks
to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the
forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the
minor changes by 910 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu).
Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening
with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts
of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu
deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later
this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift
off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus
developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest
at 10 to 15 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 282305
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu).
Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening
with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts
of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu
deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later
this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift
off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus
developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest
at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 281944
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
244 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Gusty winds today through the afternoon and winds mostly out of
the WNW, though some variability between w and more nwrly early,
should settle down as the front continues to pull away to the SE.
Clear skies and little else in the forecast to mention...VFR
throughout. Later this afternoon, some llvl moisture to the NW may
skirt the nrn terminals, mainly PIA and BMI to see some sct low.
Tomorrow, time heights and fcst soundings showing enough moisture
at the mid levels to account for some cu once daytime heating gets
going.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 281804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Cold front has moved through ILX this morning, with cooler air
filtering into the region with northwesterly winds taking over the
behind the boundary. Temps not expecting too much of a climb in
the NW, but a few degrees still possible as the skies clear and
sunshine dominates the remainder of the afternoon. Precip has
moved out to the SE and have pulled the pop mention through the
rest for the day. Gusty winds expected with an increasing pressure
gradient behind the boundary and some 20-25kt winds at 3-4kft on
VWP. New zones out momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms, along and just ahead of
the cold front just east of I-55 will continue to move east through
the area, while the individual showers move northeast. Precipitation
is not in far eastern and southeastern IL yet, but should be by
12z/7am. Models move front/precipitation through and out of the
CWA by noon and this looks reasonable given the speed the embedded
line of thunderstorms moving eastward through central IL. So, will
be issuing forecast with pre-first period to reflect current
conditions of precipitation ongoing over most of central IL. Looks
like clouds will clear out behind this system, so should be plenty
of sunshine this afternoon. As the front moves through the area,
winds will become west to northwesterly and continued breezy.

For afternoon high temperatures, took a compromise between the MET
and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet fall weather on tap during mid week, as 1021 mb high pressure
settles southeast into the mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys by
dawn Thu. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s with
fair skies and west winds diminishing to 5-10 mph during this
evening. Highs Wed mostly in the middle 50s over central IL, with
upper 50s se of I-70. Lows Wed night of 35-40F and could be some
patchy frost as weak high pressure settles into area overnight Wed
night with light winds.

A northern stream shortwave will race southeast from the northern
Plains across MO during Thu afternoon. Isolated light rain showers
or sprinkles possible by Thu afternoon and possibly into early Thu
evening over eastern IL. Forecast soundings show a fair amount of
dry air at lower levels (below 800 mb), so will keep the light rain
chances low, at or below 20%. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 50s.

Strong upper level trof digs southward over the eastern states late
this week while stronger Canadian high pressure of 1034 mb expected
to move into IL Saturday. This will usher in an ever colder airmass
with the first widespread freeze of the season expected over all of
central and southeast Illinois with lows in the upper 20s to near
30F Friday night. A freeze watch will eventually likely be needed
overnight Friday night over our CWA. Highs Friday in the upper 40s
and lower 50s central IL and mid 50s in southeast IL. Highs Saturday
only 45-50F across region. Lows could reach near freezing across
eastern IL Saturday night with mid to upper 30s over western IL
where return se flow starts sooner on back side of high pressure
which moves into the Ohio river valley Sunday. Highs Sunday in the
low to mid 50s as temps slowly modify.

Extended forecast models show strong upper level trof over the
Rockies with upper level ridging into the eastern states early next
work week which puts IL in a southwest upper level flow and more
unsettled weather returning. A frontal boundary moving near IL
Mon-Tue to bring good chance of showers especially Monday night and
Tue. Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models advertise heavier qpf moving ne
into central IL during Monday night and shifting more into southeast
IL Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Gusty winds today through the afternoon and winds mostly out of
the WNW, though some variability between w and more nwrly early,
should settle down as the front continues to pull away to the SE.
Clear skies and little else in the forecast to mention...VFR
throughout. Later this afternoon, some llvl moisture to the NW may
skirt the nrn terminals, mainly PIA and BMI to see some sct low.
Tomorrow, time heights and fcst soundings showing enough moisture
at the mid levels to account for some cu once daytime heating gets
going.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS








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