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000
FXUS63 KILX 081803
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1203 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Clouds and scattered snow showers blanket central Illinois this
morning...thanks to a deep upper-level low centered over southern
Lake Michigan. 16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a well-defined
vort max rotating around the parent low into northwest Illinois.
This particular feature is triggering a more concentrated area of
snow showers from eastern Iowa into west-central Illinois.
High-res models such as the HRRR/Rapid Refresh suggest this area
of snow showers will track E/SE across the KILX CWA through
mid-afternoon. Once the wave passes, synoptic subsidence in its
wake will likely lead to a lull in the precip late this
afternoon/evening before another weak feature approaches from the
north tonight. While visibilities will be reduced to between 1 and
3 miles at times within the snow showers, accumulations will
remain minor at generally less than one half an inch. With brisk
northwesterly winds bringing colder air into the region,
temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s for the balance
of the day. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so other than a few minor tweaks, no major changes are anticipated
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF
period...with occasional IFR visbys within heavier snow showers.
Models continue to suggest a break in the precip late this
afternoon and evening...and upstream obs across northeast
Iowa/southwest Wisconsin support this. As a result, have
temporarily ended snow showers after the 22z-00z time frame.
Another upper-level disturbance will pivot southward into the
region overnight, bringing a renewed round of snow showers. Based
on 12z NAM forecast, have brought precip back into the forecast
after 05z at KPIA...then after 09z further southeast at KCMI.
Winds will be strong/gusty from the northwest this
afternoon...gusting between 20 and 25kt at times. The gusts will
subside tonight...but sustained winds of 10 to 15kt will persist
through the night.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes





000
FXUS63 KILX 081627
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Clouds and scattered snow showers blanket central Illinois this
morning...thanks to a deep upper-level low centered over southern
Lake Michigan. 16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a well-defined
vort max rotating around the parent low into northwest Illinois.
This particular feature is triggering a more concentrated area of
snow showers from eastern Iowa into west-central Illinois.
High-res models such as the HRRR/Rapid Refresh suggest this area
of snow showers will track E/SE across the KILX CWA through
mid-afternoon. Once the wave passes, synoptic subsidence in its
wake will likely lead to a lull in the precip late this
afternoon/evening before another weak feature approaches from the
north tonight. While visibilities will be reduced to between 1 and
3 miles at times within the snow showers, accumulations will
remain minor at generally less than one half an inch. With brisk
northwesterly winds bringing colder air into the region,
temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s for the balance
of the day. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so other than a few minor tweaks, no major changes are anticipated
at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Primarily MVFR cigs across central IL terminals this morning with
isolated IFR cigs/vsby in snow showers. Little change in overall
pattern expected for the next 24 hours. A few disturbances will
affect the area bringing periods of IFR conditions through the
forecast period, with the first two already over the area and
approaching this morning. Some potential for isolated LIFR cigs.
Winds shifting to WNW by 13Z...with speeds 15g25 through evening.
Gusts expected to diminish after 00-02Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 081627
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Clouds and scattered snow showers blanket central Illinois this
morning...thanks to a deep upper-level low centered over southern
Lake Michigan. 16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a well-defined
vort max rotating around the parent low into northwest Illinois.
This particular feature is triggering a more concentrated area of
snow showers from eastern Iowa into west-central Illinois.
High-res models such as the HRRR/Rapid Refresh suggest this area
of snow showers will track E/SE across the KILX CWA through
mid-afternoon. Once the wave passes, synoptic subsidence in its
wake will likely lead to a lull in the precip late this
afternoon/evening before another weak feature approaches from the
north tonight. While visibilities will be reduced to between 1 and
3 miles at times within the snow showers, accumulations will
remain minor at generally less than one half an inch. With brisk
northwesterly winds bringing colder air into the region,
temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s for the balance
of the day. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so other than a few minor tweaks, no major changes are anticipated
at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Primarily MVFR cigs across central IL terminals this morning with
isolated IFR cigs/vsby in snow showers. Little change in overall
pattern expected for the next 24 hours. A few disturbances will
affect the area bringing periods of IFR conditions through the
forecast period, with the first two already over the area and
approaching this morning. Some potential for isolated LIFR cigs.
Winds shifting to WNW by 13Z...with speeds 15g25 through evening.
Gusts expected to diminish after 00-02Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 081627
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Clouds and scattered snow showers blanket central Illinois this
morning...thanks to a deep upper-level low centered over southern
Lake Michigan. 16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a well-defined
vort max rotating around the parent low into northwest Illinois.
This particular feature is triggering a more concentrated area of
snow showers from eastern Iowa into west-central Illinois.
High-res models such as the HRRR/Rapid Refresh suggest this area
of snow showers will track E/SE across the KILX CWA through
mid-afternoon. Once the wave passes, synoptic subsidence in its
wake will likely lead to a lull in the precip late this
afternoon/evening before another weak feature approaches from the
north tonight. While visibilities will be reduced to between 1 and
3 miles at times within the snow showers, accumulations will
remain minor at generally less than one half an inch. With brisk
northwesterly winds bringing colder air into the region,
temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s for the balance
of the day. Current forecast has a good handle on the situation,
so other than a few minor tweaks, no major changes are anticipated
at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Primarily MVFR cigs across central IL terminals this morning with
isolated IFR cigs/vsby in snow showers. Little change in overall
pattern expected for the next 24 hours. A few disturbances will
affect the area bringing periods of IFR conditions through the
forecast period, with the first two already over the area and
approaching this morning. Some potential for isolated LIFR cigs.
Winds shifting to WNW by 13Z...with speeds 15g25 through evening.
Gusts expected to diminish after 00-02Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 081127
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Primarily MVFR cigs across central IL terminals this morning with
isolated IFR cigs/vsby in snow showers. Little change in overall
pattern expected for the next 24 hours. A few disturbances will
affect the area bringing periods of IFR conditions through the
forecast period, with the first two already over the area and
approaching this morning. Some potential for isolated LIFR cigs.
Winds shifting to WNW by 13Z...with speeds 15g25 through evening.
Gusts expected to diminish after 00-02Z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 080934
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Surface low centered over lake Superior early this morning has a
trailing cold front which has arrived in Galesburg early this
morning and will push southeastward to Lawrenceville by around noon.
An upper level shortwave following the cold front will help enhance
lift over the area bringing the likelihood of scattered snow showers
across central IL developing this morning through afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict a mixed layer deepening to the 800 mb
layer by afternoon...extending into temperatures aloft -10 C or
colder...for favorable snow crystal formation. Nevertheless...lift
is weak and only expecting amounts to around 1/2 inch or less by
evening. Early in the morning...a few sprinkles and showers
associated with a preceding shortwave will also be seen south of I-
72 before the more prominent shortwave and cold front arrive.

Cold air behind the front will start a downward trend in
temperatures. Most areas north of I-72 will see temperatures falling
through the day...while areas to the south should see a max
temperature before noon...then falling through the afternoon. Expect
early morning temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s...and no
more than mid 20s to lower 30s by mid afternoon. Winds WSW around 10
mph ahead of the cold front...switching to WNW and increasing to a
blustery 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Long wave trof digging in over the Midwest, with good representation
on sat imagery this morning.  The deep trof over the eastern half of
the country will be the driving force through the end of the
forecast period. Variations and challenges in the forecast revolve
around subtle but significant nuances between models in handling the
trof.

For tonight, widespread light snow showers will remain the rule as
the sfc system makes its way through the region.  Models have been
relatively consistent with showing a showery nature to the
snowfall...and trying to show a bit of a break tonight before a
secondary wave comes in and develops another round.  Though most
places should see snow at some point, the qpf associated with this
storm is limited.  Lift is not that deep through the column, and the
moisture is also limited. Around a widespread inch or so could be
possible through Tuesday morning, with the higher inch to two totals
in the NE.  However light the snowfall totals are expected to be,
the blustery winds and cold temperatures will still result in a
travel menace with this snow.  15 to 20 mph winds gusting to 25 to
30 at times will result in some blowing snow and vis reductions, as
well as creating some slippery roads.

Chilly temperatures as Arctic air moves into the region behind the
snowfall, with Wednesdays highs only getting into the teens.  Mid
week is also about the time that the models start ejecting a series
of waves into the nwrly flow over the region.  GFS is quicker with
one on Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF is a little bit delayed into
early Friday.  Neither of the waves have much in the way of
confidence just yet as far as potential precip makers, but possibly
waves to help dig the trof further.  Which brings the forecast
around to the next big question...temperatures going into the next
weekend. ECMWF is far colder and deeper with another big surge of
Arctic air into the long wave that has remained over the eastern
CONUS for the entire forecast.  GFS is a little less aggressive.
Teleconnections forecast has the AO going negative, so the movement
of Arctic air into the CONUS is likely.  The GFS/ensemble forecast
for the NAO is positive, however, leaning to a weaker Icelandic low
and less amplified pattern over the eastern half of the country.
Less emphasis put on the GFS forecast with a which came first
argument.  The ensembles give a little more credit...but in reality,
the trend analysis alone in the teleconnections has been troublesome
this winter. The last situation that set up this way, the ECMWF
picked up on a deep cold trend before the GFS (and hence, the NAO
forecasts were also lagging). With all that in mind, have trended
the forecast slightly colder than the SuperBlend has into the
weekend, but not quite as aggressive as the incredibly cold ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will continue to thicken
and lower, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of a
strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow during
the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now, but will
develop again Monday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 080534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will continue to thicken
and lower, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of a
strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow during
the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now, but will
develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 080534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will continue to thicken
and lower, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of a
strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow during
the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now, but will
develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 080534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will continue to thicken
and lower, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of a
strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow during
the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now, but will
develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 080259
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 080259
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 080259
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Going forecast is in pretty good shape overall. A lead upper level
wave is tracking across the state at the moment, and spotty light
rain showers/sprinkles associated with this feature have broken
through the dry low level airmass in place. Main attention is
still focused on the the next wave associated with the main surge
cold air. This feature is on track to spread across the area
after midnight from the northwest and will be accompanied by
scattered snow showers and flurries. No significant forecast
changes are needed at this time, but will tweak hourly grids for
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 072359
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 072359
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 072359
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CIGS across the central Illinois terminals will thicken and lower
this evening, with MVFR CIGS developing overnight in the wake of
a strong cold front. Snow showers will also accompany the colder
air, but given expected coverage will only carry VCSH for the
remainder of the night. Snow showers will be more widespread after
sunrise Monday, so will carry restricted visibility in snow
during the daytime hours. The gusty winds have subsided for now,
but will develop again Monday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 072052
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level clouds of 10-15k ft along and east of the
IL river was associated with frontal boundary pushing east toward I-
55 at mid afternoon. Breezy WSW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
30 mph was giving mild temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
mid 50s south of I-70 in southeast IL. May see some sprinkles out of
this band of clouds in eastern/se IL late this afternoon and early
evening. Relatively low dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s over IL
and upstream into MO/AR so think this will tend to keep us drier
with lack of low level moisture ahead of this front that moves
toward the Wabash river by 00Z/6 pm.

A strong 526 dm 500 mb low over the arrowhead of NE MN and another
530 dm 500 low near the MN/IA border, will track into central and
northern Lake MI by dawn Monday. Associated 998 mb surface low
pressure near International Falls MN will track toward northern Lake
MI by 12Z/6 am Monday. Moisture still somewhat limited with this
feature over central IL, but strong short wave energy and lift
should be enough to likely develop light snow showers se across
central IL overnight with light snow showers more scattered over
southern counties later tonight into Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts overnight between midnight and 6 am should only range from
0.1-0.3 inches nw of I-70 with just trace amounts from I-70
southeast overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s
along and nw of the IL river, to the lower 30s in southeast IL. WSW
winds decrease to around 10 mph for a time this evening, and then
veer WNW and increase to 10-20 mph and gusts increase to 20-30 mph
by sunrise, with highest winds over western CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Back to winter again starting on Monday as a deep storm system
tracks across the Great Lakes drawing down Arctic air into the
region. Along with the cold air, a gusty northwest wind and
snow showers will dominate the weather scene over central Illinois
Monday through most of Tuesday. Although snowfall amounts will be
around an inch or an inch and a half in some locations, the gusty
winds will, on occasion, produce some blowing snow in outlying areas
with slippery roadways a good possibility, especially the bridge
decks, overpasses and secondary roads. Several vorticity lobes
will be rotating around the 500 mb closed low that is forecast to
drop south into our area on Monday.

The 500 mb shortwave on this morning`s upper air analysis already
had temperatures of -35 C with the trof expected to be very slow in
exiting our region over the next few days with strong cyclonic
curvature holding over the area at least through Wednesday. Models
again trending a bit colder as we head into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a secondary surge of Arctic air sinks south into the
Midwest with even a tighter pressure gradient Wednesday morning when
wind chills will range from around 5 below far southeast to as low as
15 below in our northwest counties. Wednesday looks to be a cold day
with the center of the cold air mass settling across the Midwest
with afternoon temperatures now forecast to struggle through the
teens most areas.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be quiet as the cold high
pressure slowly edges across the Great Lakes with temperatures
slowly moderating back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Friday
and Saturday, which is still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Unfortunately, we are still seeing some model disagreements in the
fast northwesterly flow aloft with respect to a couple of low
amplitude shortwaves which are forecast to shift quickly southeast
across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Each model run has a different solution with once again the
Canadian the most aggressive with the wave late Wednesday
afternoon and night, while the ECMWF indicates the wave on Friday
may bring us some light snow. At this time, there is too much
spread with the model solutions that far out with the better
agreement coming along late next weekend when a more significant
trof settles southeast into the region bringing us a chance for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected into this evening over the central IL
airports, then MVFR ceilings move in from nw to se between 06Z-09Z
along with light snow chances and possible MVFR vsbys especially
later tonight into Monday morning. Breezy WSW winds of 13-18 kts
and gusts of 20-27 kts this afternoon to veer WNW overnight into
Monday morning, and increase to around 15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts
Monday morning. A stronger northern stream short wave/trof over
the upper Midwest will dig into IL and the Ohio river valley by
overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile surface 999 mb low
pressure near Internatial Falls MN will track ESE into far
northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Monday. This will bring the light
snow showers, MVFR conditions and increase WNW winds.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 071759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Like yesterday, temperatures are running warmer with more sunshine
this morning and will update to bump highs up a few degrees. Most
areas should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
Temps at 1030 am already in the low to mid 40s over central IL and
upper 40s in southeast IL. The cirrus clouds are fairly thin yet
over central and especially southeast IL with partly to mostly
sunny skies this morning. Breezy sw winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
of 20-30 mph to bring in the mild Pacific air one more day today.
Forecast models increase clouds during the afternoon and have
trended drier this afternoon and evening over southeast IL.
Will hold onto isolated light rain showers over southeast IL late
this afternoon and evening with just 20% chance pop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected into this evening over the central IL
airports, then MVFR ceilings move in from nw to se between 06Z-09Z
along with light snow chances and possible MVFR vsbys especially
later tonight into Monday morning. Breezy WSW winds of 13-18 kts
and gusts of 20-27 kts this afternoon to veer WNW overnight into
Monday morning, and increase to around 15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts
Monday morning. A stronger northern stream short wave/trof over
the upper Midwest will dig into IL and the Ohio river valley by
overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile surface 999 mb low
pressure near Internatial Falls MN will track ESE into far
northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Monday. This will bring the light
snow showers, MVFR conditions and increase WNW winds.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 071759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Like yesterday, temperatures are running warmer with more sunshine
this morning and will update to bump highs up a few degrees. Most
areas should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
Temps at 1030 am already in the low to mid 40s over central IL and
upper 40s in southeast IL. The cirrus clouds are fairly thin yet
over central and especially southeast IL with partly to mostly
sunny skies this morning. Breezy sw winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
of 20-30 mph to bring in the mild Pacific air one more day today.
Forecast models increase clouds during the afternoon and have
trended drier this afternoon and evening over southeast IL.
Will hold onto isolated light rain showers over southeast IL late
this afternoon and evening with just 20% chance pop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected into this evening over the central IL
airports, then MVFR ceilings move in from nw to se between 06Z-09Z
along with light snow chances and possible MVFR vsbys especially
later tonight into Monday morning. Breezy WSW winds of 13-18 kts
and gusts of 20-27 kts this afternoon to veer WNW overnight into
Monday morning, and increase to around 15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts
Monday morning. A stronger northern stream short wave/trof over
the upper Midwest will dig into IL and the Ohio river valley by
overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile surface 999 mb low
pressure near Internatial Falls MN will track ESE into far
northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Monday. This will bring the light
snow showers, MVFR conditions and increase WNW winds.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 071759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Like yesterday, temperatures are running warmer with more sunshine
this morning and will update to bump highs up a few degrees. Most
areas should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
Temps at 1030 am already in the low to mid 40s over central IL and
upper 40s in southeast IL. The cirrus clouds are fairly thin yet
over central and especially southeast IL with partly to mostly
sunny skies this morning. Breezy sw winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
of 20-30 mph to bring in the mild Pacific air one more day today.
Forecast models increase clouds during the afternoon and have
trended drier this afternoon and evening over southeast IL.
Will hold onto isolated light rain showers over southeast IL late
this afternoon and evening with just 20% chance pop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected into this evening over the central IL
airports, then MVFR ceilings move in from nw to se between 06Z-09Z
along with light snow chances and possible MVFR vsbys especially
later tonight into Monday morning. Breezy WSW winds of 13-18 kts
and gusts of 20-27 kts this afternoon to veer WNW overnight into
Monday morning, and increase to around 15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts
Monday morning. A stronger northern stream short wave/trof over
the upper Midwest will dig into IL and the Ohio river valley by
overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile surface 999 mb low
pressure near Internatial Falls MN will track ESE into far
northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Monday. This will bring the light
snow showers, MVFR conditions and increase WNW winds.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 071645
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Like yesterday, temperatures are running warmer with more sunshine
this morning and will update to bump highs up a few degrees. Most
areas should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
Temps at 1030 am already in the low to mid 40s over central IL and
upper 40s in southeast IL. The cirrus clouds are fairly thin yet
over central and especially southeast IL with partly to mostly
sunny skies this morning. Breezy sw winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
of 20-30 mph to bring in the mild Pacific air one more day today.
Forecast models increase clouds during the afternoon and have
trended drier this afternoon and evening over southeast IL.
Will hold onto isolated light rain showers over southeast IL late
this afternoon and evening with just 20% chance pop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
until around 06Z Monday...followed by decreasing ceilings and a
good chance of snow bringing decreased visibility. As snowfall
rates are expected to be light...have kept visibility in MVFR
category for this TAF issuance. Winds SSW 10-16 kts...becoming
gusty this morning with gusts to around 25 kts. Winds shifting to
westerly from 17-21Z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 071140
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
until around 06Z Monday...followed by decreasing ceilings and a
good chance of snow bringing decreased visibility. As snowfall
rates are expected to be light...have kept visibility in MVFR
category for this TAF issuance. Winds SSW 10-16 kts...becoming
gusty this morning with gusts to around 25 kts. Winds shifting to
westerly from 17-21Z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 071140
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
until around 06Z Monday...followed by decreasing ceilings and a
good chance of snow bringing decreased visibility. As snowfall
rates are expected to be light...have kept visibility in MVFR
category for this TAF issuance. Winds SSW 10-16 kts...becoming
gusty this morning with gusts to around 25 kts. Winds shifting to
westerly from 17-21Z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 070945
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 070945
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 070945
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 070534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
overnight. It will be milder tonight than last night as clouds and
southerly winds increase. However, the clouds are taking their
time getting here thanks to the dry air in place. This may allow
temperatures to fall a bit more than current forecast. Still,
temperatures haven`t fallen too hard yet, so will leave them alone
for now. Main change to current forecast will be to slow the
arrival of the thicker cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulation over the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 070534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
overnight. It will be milder tonight than last night as clouds and
southerly winds increase. However, the clouds are taking their
time getting here thanks to the dry air in place. This may allow
temperatures to fall a bit more than current forecast. Still,
temperatures haven`t fallen too hard yet, so will leave them alone
for now. Main change to current forecast will be to slow the
arrival of the thicker cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulation over the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 070534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
overnight. It will be milder tonight than last night as clouds and
southerly winds increase. However, the clouds are taking their
time getting here thanks to the dry air in place. This may allow
temperatures to fall a bit more than current forecast. Still,
temperatures haven`t fallen too hard yet, so will leave them alone
for now. Main change to current forecast will be to slow the
arrival of the thicker cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulation over the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the bulk of the 06Z valid time. A strong storm system
will dive into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, most of
the associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through the daytime hours Sunday. A few snow showers
can`t be ruled out, at least at KPIA, by Sunday evening, but
chances are low enough to preclude mention at this time. The main
impacts locally will be increasing VFR level cloudiness, and
southwest winds gusting over 20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 070258
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
overnight. It will be milder tonight than last night as clouds and
southerly winds increase. However, the clouds are taking their
time getting here thanks to the dry air in place. This may allow
temperatures to fall a bit more than current forecast. Still,
temperatures haven`t fallen too hard yet, so will leave them alone
for now. Main change to current forecast will be to slow the
arrival of the thicker cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulationover the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the 00Z valid time. A strong storm system will dive into
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through Sunday. The main impacts locally will be
increasing VFR level cloudiness, and southwest winds gusting over
20 kts by early Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 062335
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
535 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulationover the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the 00Z valid time. A strong storm system will dive into
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through Sunday. The main impacts locally will be
increasing VFR level cloudiness, and southwest winds gusting over
20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 062335
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
535 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulationover the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the 00Z valid time. A strong storm system will dive into
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through Sunday. The main impacts locally will be
increasing VFR level cloudiness, and southwest winds gusting over
20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 062335
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
535 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probability for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total
accumulationover the longer duration (late Monday night through
at least Tuesday morning). The time frame from Monday through
Monday night will need to be watched as temperatures will be below
freezing, a light accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind, which will produce some slick roadways,
especially when darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR condtions should prevail across the central Illinois terminals
through the 00Z valid time. A strong storm system will dive into
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will stay north of the center of the
surface low through Sunday. The main impacts locally will be
increasing VFR level cloudiness, and southwest winds gusting over
20 kts by early Sunday morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 062056
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Central and southeast IL enjoying a sunny day with milder
temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s (Flora and Salem up to
54F). Southwest winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts around 20 mph over
central IL and lighter sw winds 5-10 mph in southeast IL at mid
afternoon.

Upper level trof and a pair of embedded cutoff upper level lows
over the lower MS river valley will keep its clouds southeast of the
Ohio river as it tracks across the Southeast States tonight.
Meanwhile a northern stream short wave/trof over eastern MT with 996
mb surface low pressure over southern Canadian Rockies, will track
into the upper Midwest by 12Z/6 am Sunday while surface low
approaches nw MN. Broken mid/high clouds over the northern Plains
and into nw IA will spread se across central IL during overnight as
fair skies this evening become partly to mostly cloudy overnight.
Milder lows overnight mostly in the lower 30s with sw winds 5-15
mph. Temperatures to fall fairly quickly this evening after sunset
in dry air mass and fair skies. Increasing clouds and sw winds
overnight to temper temperature fall.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

One more unseasonably mild day on Sunday before much colder air
starts to invade the Midwest early next week. An upper level
shortwave forecast to dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes
later on Sunday into early next week which will deliver the next
batch of Arctic air to the forecast area starting on Monday.
Strong surface low expected to pass well north of our area on
Sunday but the southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary
will help keep our temperatures quite mild for the first week of
February, generally from the middle 40s far north to the lower 50s
south and west. With the better forcing and deeper moisture
remaining north on Sunday, it appears the higher probabililty for
precip will also remain north of our area through most of the day.
By late afternoon and evening, models indicate some light QPF
possible over the far southeast as this area will be near the left
exit region of a speed max at 250 mb. Still, only worth slight
chance POPs during this time frame.

We look for better lift moving across the area with the deeper cold
advection which settles over the area late Sunday through Monday
night as the closed 500 mb system shifts across northern Illinois.
It is during this time that we will see higher POPs, but still low
QPFs across the forecast area with scattered snow showers from time
to time. We are still looking at an inch or less total accummulation
over the longer duration (late Monday night through at least Tuesday
morning). The time frame from Monday through Monday night will need
to be watched as temperatures will be below freezing, a light
accumulation of snow will occur accompanied by a gusty northwest
wind, which will produce some slick roadways, especially when
darkness sets in Monday evening.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will gradually end from west to
east by late Tuesday morning, although the latest ECMWF and Canadian
models have trended a bit slower as our strong cyclonic flow hangs
on a bit longer over the forecast area. We may need to hold on to at
least some flurries during the day on Tuesday if these trends start
to show a bit more consistency. In addition, a gusty northwest wind
is expected to hold across the area through Tuesday with gusts up
to around 30 mph at times driving wind chills down into the single
digits above and below zero Tuesday morning with our coldest wind
chill readings on Wednesday morning where we will see readings
around 10 below zero along and north of Interstate 74.

The stronger cyclonic flow will begin to weaken on Wednesday as the
center of the cold air settles east into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
latest Canadian model indicates a quick moving shortwave dropping
southeast into the Plains during the day Wednesday producing a band
of light snow from north central Iowa southeast into western IL. The
ECMWF and GFS picks up on this wave but is about 6 hours slower in
bringing in the very light snow into western Illinois by Wednesday
night. Confidence on the timing and magnitude of these fast moving
shortwaves in the strong northwest flow this far out in time is poor
at best, so will continue to keep the forecast dry on Wednesday.

Each of these fast moving shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
during the middle and latter portions of the work week will deliver
reinforcing shots of Arctic air to the region. So what looked like a
gradual moderating trend by late week or next weekend with previous
model runs, has been put on hold for now as temperatures during this
time frame look to be below normal over most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the central IL airports
next 24 hours through 18Z/noon Sunday. A band of low clouds below
1k ft along with some fog over central and nw IA into WI and far
northern IL should stay well north of central IL today. Cirrus
clouds will increase from the nw later today and evening with a A
band of mid level clouds around 10k ft will spread into PIA
between 06-07Z and to CMI by 10Z. These clouds due to a northern
stream short wave/trof over MT that tracks into the upper MS river
valley Sunday morning. SSW winds to become sw near 10 kts during
this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 17-22 kts
after 14Z/Sunday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 061759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the central IL airports
next 24 hours through 18Z/noon Sunday. A band of low clouds below
1k ft along with some fog over central and nw IA into WI and far
northern IL should stay well north of central IL today. Cirrus
clouds will increase from the nw later today and evening with a A
band of mid level clouds around 10k ft will spread into PIA
between 06-07Z and to CMI by 10Z. These clouds due to a northern
stream short wave/trof over MT that tracks into the upper MS river
valley Sunday morning. SSW winds to become sw near 10 kts during
this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 17-22 kts
after 14Z/Sunday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 061759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the central IL airports
next 24 hours through 18Z/noon Sunday. A band of low clouds below
1k ft along with some fog over central and nw IA into WI and far
northern IL should stay well north of central IL today. Cirrus
clouds will increase from the nw later today and evening with a A
band of mid level clouds around 10k ft will spread into PIA
between 06-07Z and to CMI by 10Z. These clouds due to a northern
stream short wave/trof over MT that tracks into the upper MS river
valley Sunday morning. SSW winds to become sw near 10 kts during
this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 17-22 kts
after 14Z/Sunday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 061759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the central IL airports
next 24 hours through 18Z/noon Sunday. A band of low clouds below
1k ft along with some fog over central and nw IA into WI and far
northern IL should stay well north of central IL today. Cirrus
clouds will increase from the nw later today and evening with a A
band of mid level clouds around 10k ft will spread into PIA
between 06-07Z and to CMI by 10Z. These clouds due to a northern
stream short wave/trof over MT that tracks into the upper MS river
valley Sunday morning. SSW winds to become sw near 10 kts during
this afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 17-22 kts
after 14Z/Sunday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 061645
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 061645
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 061645
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Needed to update the forecast for more sunshine today especially into
early afternoon. Otherwise rest of forecast on track with milder
Pacific air arriving this weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 40s
this afternoon, with upper 40s SW CWA. Expect sw winds of 7-14 mph
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 061142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 061142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 061142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area through early today,
accompanied by areas VFR cloud cover and local MVFR cigs.
However, the guidance suggests most MVFR and IFR CIGS beneath the
disturbance upstream will remain out of the area to the north and
west where snow-pack and better lift are in place. Winds
predominantly S-SW 5-10 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 060923
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 060923
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060923
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A weak shortwave low-pressure trough aloft will cross central IL
from early morning to early afternoon today spreading additional
low and mid cloud cover over the area. By afternoon the trough
axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud
cover erode somewhat. Thin high clouds associated with a low over
southern Canada will already be approaching by late afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable to start the day as weak pressure
gradients associated with the departing high continue. By late
morning and afternoon...the approaching southern Canada low will
start SW winds in the 5-10 mph range. High temperatures will be up
to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the
south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds
will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather
mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.  One
exception persists late Sunday in the GFS with smaller
representation in both the NAM and the ECMWF.  The NAM solution
putting a small area of qpf ahead of the approaching upper wave, but
mainly east and southeast of ILX...the ECMWF a little weaker, with
the GFS more widespread across the IN/IL border later on Sunday.  A
little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc
trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little
in the way of surface convergence...see no reason to eliminate the
slight chance pops that are in there for now.  If the trend in the
NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the
next run or so.

The bigger issue for the forecast is the main system approaching and
spreading precip across the area Sunday night through Tuesday.  Deep
upper low moving into the Midwest and plenty of colder Arctic air
moving in with it. What may start as rain early Sunday
evening/night, will slowly change over to all snow by Monday.  QPFs
are generally low, but with high ratios in place, could end up
seeing a widespread inch or so between Monday/Monday night.  Chilly
temps are moving in behind the snow.  Whereas highs on Sunday will
be in the 40s and 50s for Illinois... by Tuesday, the high
temperatures will be chopped down into the teens and 20s.  850mb
temps will be dropping to -16C to -19C.  After the coldest portions
of the forecast midweek, a slow warming trend will bring the temps
back up to more seasonal values by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 060534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will cross the area late tonight into
early Saturday, accompanied by more significant cloud cover than
is currently in place. However, the guidance suggests these clouds
will remain VFR. There are some MVFR or even IFR CIGS beneath the
trof upstream, but most of the lower CIGS are co-located with some
thicker snow pack. In any event, the threat for lower CIGS will
need to be monitored over the next several hours. Winds will trend
south to southwest later tonight and through the end of the
forecast period. Speeds AOB 10 kts are anticipated.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060255
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060255
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 060255
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected to persist across central and southeast
Illinois. Surface high pressure will slowly drift away from the
region tonight, with light winds gradually shifting to the south
on its back side. An upper level trof will cross the Midwest
tonight, but it is not expected to be much of a weather producer
locally. The system does not have much moisture to work with, and
the associated forcing is not well phased or substantial. Do not
expect much more than layered clouds with the passage of this
feature tonight.

Going forecast is in good shape. Only a few minor tweaks are
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060000
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 060000
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK




000
FXUS63 KILX 060000
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overnight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and
ridging northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift
into the southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph
will become light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5
mph during overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totaling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will
finally be cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we initially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions should prevail for the bulk of the 00Z TAF valid
time across the central Illinois terminals. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight/early Saturday,
accompanied lowering VFR CIGS tonight. The lower CIGS should
scatter out again Saturday morning as the disturbance pulls away.
Light/variable winds will trend southwesterly near 10 knots by
midday Saturday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK





000
FXUS63 KILX 052059
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A northern stream short wave trof over the eastern Dakotas into
central Nebraska, will track into nw IL by dawn Saturday. This weak
clipper system will generally keep its light snow/flurries chances
north of CWA during tonight, but will bring in more cloud cover.
Clouds have already been prevalent over central and northern CWA
today with thickening cirrus clouds over some lingering MVFR clouds
over NE half of CWA. Meanwhile southeast IL has mostly sunny skies
at mid afternoon will see clouds increase there as well overight.
1033 mb high pressure over the southern MS river valley and ridging
northward into eastern MO and sw IL will gradually shift into the
southeast states into Sat morning. WNW winds 5-10 mph will become
light and variable this evening and become SSE near 5 mph during
overnight. Lows tonight mostly in the middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Mild weather to dominate this weekend before much colder weather
moves into the area early next week. Models very similar with
respect to the strong shortwave forecast to dig southeast into
the upper Great Lakes, and eventually carve out a longwave trof
over the eastern U.S. early next week. Mild Pacific air will
dominate Saturday and Sunday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks east across southern Canada late Saturday through early
Sunday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will top out in the lower 40s north to
around 50 south, and by Sunday, the mercury should climb in the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south accompanied by a rather gusty
southwest breeze.

As the cold front progresses southeast into the Midwest later on
Sunday into early Monday, rain chances will start to increase across
the north and over parts of southeast Illinois, with most areas
seeing light snow chances late Sunday night into Monday night as the
much colder air builds south. All models now showing the closed
upper system at 500 mb dropping south into central Illinois on
Monday afternoon with 500 mb temperatures forecast in the -30 to -35
degree C range during that time. The combination of the deep
cyclonic flow and cold advection occurring at all levels should lead
to better coverage of snow showers Monday afternoon with rather
steep low and mid level lapse rates expected. Even so, 30-40 POPs
should cover this type of setup with scattered snow showers
continuing into a good portion of the evening as the upper low
slowly edges away from our area on Tuesday. It still appears any
accumulations will be minor, possibly totalling up to an inch over
the 36 hour period (late Sunday night-early Tuesday) in a few
locations, with the most favorable setup being from Monday afternoon
through early Tuesday when the surface temperatures will finally be
cold enough to support any accumulations.

Coldest temperatures at 850 mb forecast to arrive Monday afternoon
and hold over our area into early Wednesday with the coldest models
close to -18 degrees C as surface temperatures are expected to be
steady or slowly falling, especially during the afternoon on Monday,
accompanied by a gusty northwest wind adding a significant chill to
the air. Scattered flurries will be possible on Tuesday across the
east with the better chances for light snow or flurries shifting
away from our area as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic
by Wednesday with the center of the cold air mass moving over our
area.

The blustery conditions will hold through Wednesday morning as the
deep upper low only slowly pushes away from the region. Wind chills
are not expected to be as cold as we nitially thought, but cold
enough, with readings ranging from 5 below zero north to 5 above
zero far south Wednesday morning. The deep trof will shift away from
the lower Great Lakes late in the week allowing a moderating trend
to settle in which will bring about a gradual moderating trend on
Thursday and Friday when temperatures will inch back closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Broken to overcast MVFR clouds of 1.5-2k ft from PIA and DEC
eastward across east central/ne IL will gradually scatter out
during the afternoon, occurring last at CMI after 21Z/3 pm.
Already have broken cirrus clouds spreading east over central IL
at midday and will see these ceilings gradually lower during
tonight to range from 4-6k ft overnight into Sat morning. MVFR
ceilings should stay nw of IL river/PIA overnight into Saturday
morning along with chances of flurries. These clouds due to a
northern stream short wave trof that tracks ESE across the Midwest
and into IL on Saturday. WNW winds around 5 kts to become light
and variable this evening. Winds will become sw 5-10 kts during
Saturday morning. These fairly light winds are due to 1034 mb
surface high pressure from the lower MS river valley and ridging
northward into MO/KY, that stays close to IL into Sat morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...07





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