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000
FXUS63 KILX 042009
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW 18Z RUNS AND A COUPLE MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ON A WAVE OF ENERGY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
STORMS NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM 10Z/5AM TO 15Z/10AM SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS UNDER THE SLOW MOVING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -10 DEGREE C TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT THANKFULLY THE DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE
95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TOPPING THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
APPEARS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING PRECIP NEAR THAT LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ARW-EAST SHOWS A WAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY MORNING AND ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF BMI TO CMI/DANVILLE. IN GENERAL,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-95F RANGE AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-101 RANGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IL LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WE ARE SEEING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR, WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING
TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
IN A DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ACKNOWLEDGED THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 UNTIL AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS EAST
OF SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN MOST LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ABOUT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NW OF I-55 ON
TUESDAY, AND SURROUNDING THE I-72 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WAVE
PROGRESSES, WE MAY NEED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 FOR WED
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...BUT A FEW SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED IN ALL
BUT SE OF I-70, WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME Scattered CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000
FEET. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z
TIME FRAME BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 042009
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW 18Z RUNS AND A COUPLE MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ON A WAVE OF ENERGY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
STORMS NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM 10Z/5AM TO 15Z/10AM SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS UNDER THE SLOW MOVING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -10 DEGREE C TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT THANKFULLY THE DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE
95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TOPPING THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
APPEARS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING PRECIP NEAR THAT LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ARW-EAST SHOWS A WAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY MORNING AND ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF BMI TO CMI/DANVILLE. IN GENERAL,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-95F RANGE AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-101 RANGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IL LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WE ARE SEEING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR, WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING
TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
IN A DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ACKNOWLEDGED THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 UNTIL AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS EAST
OF SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN MOST LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ABOUT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NW OF I-55 ON
TUESDAY, AND SURROUNDING THE I-72 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WAVE
PROGRESSES, WE MAY NEED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 FOR WED
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...BUT A FEW SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED IN ALL
BUT SE OF I-70, WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME Scattered CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000
FEET. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z
TIME FRAME BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 042009
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW 18Z RUNS AND A COUPLE MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ON A WAVE OF ENERGY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
STORMS NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM 10Z/5AM TO 15Z/10AM SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS UNDER THE SLOW MOVING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -10 DEGREE C TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT THANKFULLY THE DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE
95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TOPPING THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
APPEARS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING PRECIP NEAR THAT LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ARW-EAST SHOWS A WAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY MORNING AND ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF BMI TO CMI/DANVILLE. IN GENERAL,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-95F RANGE AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-101 RANGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IL LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WE ARE SEEING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR, WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING
TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
IN A DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ACKNOWLEDGED THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 UNTIL AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS EAST
OF SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN MOST LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ABOUT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NW OF I-55 ON
TUESDAY, AND SURROUNDING THE I-72 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WAVE
PROGRESSES, WE MAY NEED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 FOR WED
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...BUT A FEW SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED IN ALL
BUT SE OF I-70, WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME Scattered CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000
FEET. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z
TIME FRAME BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 041950
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -10 DEGREE C TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT THANKFULLY THE DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE
95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TOPPING THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
APPEARS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING PRECIP NEAR THAT LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ARW-EAST SHOWS A WAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY MORNING AND ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF BMI TO CMI/DANVILLE. IN GENERAL,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-95F RANGE AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-101 RANGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IL LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WE ARE SEEING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR, WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING
TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
IN A DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ACKNOWLEDGED THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 UNTIL AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS EAST
OF SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN MOST LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ABOUT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NW OF I-55 ON
TUESDAY, AND SURROUNDING THE I-72 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WAVE
PROGRESSES, WE MAY NEED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 FOR WED
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...BUT A FEW SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED IN ALL
BUT SE OF I-70, WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME Scattered CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000
FEET. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z
TIME FRAME BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 041950
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -10 DEGREE C TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT THANKFULLY THE DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE
95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
THEY WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TOPPING THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT TO OUR WEST, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN/OHIO WHICH TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
APPEARS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING PRECIP NEAR THAT LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ARW-EAST SHOWS A WAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY MORNING AND ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF BMI TO CMI/DANVILLE. IN GENERAL,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-95F RANGE AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-101 RANGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO IL LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WE ARE SEEING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR, WITH A CONTINUED SLOWING
TREND WITH THE 12Z MODELS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO BE
IN A DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ACKNOWLEDGED THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 UNTIL AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS EAST
OF SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN MOST LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ABOUT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NW OF I-55 ON
TUESDAY, AND SURROUNDING THE I-72 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WAVE
PROGRESSES, WE MAY NEED LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-70 FOR WED
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...BUT A FEW SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD BUBBLE UP
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED IN ALL
BUT SE OF I-70, WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME Scattered CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000
FEET. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z
TIME FRAME BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 041712
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY WAVE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH SOME
COOL AIR ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -10 DEGREES C...AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AT THE
MOMENT SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERD CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000 FEET.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME BUT
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 041712
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY WAVE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH SOME
COOL AIR ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -10 DEGREES C...AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AT THE
MOMENT SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERD CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000 FEET.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME BUT
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 041712
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY WAVE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH SOME
COOL AIR ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -10 DEGREES C...AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AT THE
MOMENT SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME
WHEN SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERD CUMULUS BELOW AT 4000-5000 FEET.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMI AND KCMI IN THE 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME BUT
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 041542
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY WAVE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH SOME
COOL AIR ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -10 DEGREES C...AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AT THE
MOMENT SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 041542
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY WAVE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH SOME
COOL AIR ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -10 DEGREES C...AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AT THE
MOMENT SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 041125
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 041125
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 041125
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 041125
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. WITH
DEWPOINTS BEING CLOSE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT ONLY CMI AND BMI. NOT
EXPECTING ANY LIGHT FOG AT ANY OF THE OTHER SITES. SCATTERED CU
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES...BUT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN TAFS YET AND
LET LATER SHIFTS GET BETTER LOOK AT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AXIS OF SFC RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 040803
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 040803
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 040803
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 040803
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER MICHIGAN.  08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN LOW OVER
LAKE HURON...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINING N/NE OF THE KILX CWA. HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR...BUT IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS.  ASIDE FROM
THIS VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE INITIAL WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
MONDAY.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCE
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE.  HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF I-57
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...AND ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 040438
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 040438
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 040438
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 040438
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. BY MORNING PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON-EVENING
FRIDAY IS NON-ZERO...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR VCTS MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE KBMI-KCMI NORTHEASTWARD.
WINDS S-SW UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 040149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25





000
FXUS63 KILX 040149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KILX 040149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25





000
FXUS63 KILX 040149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
REACHING TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES ANY
FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND/OR THIN. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KILX 032304
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KILX 032304
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE. DIURNAL CU WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. USED
PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS (NEAR 5SM)
TO KBMI AND KCMI AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ANY LIGHT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 8 KTS...AND
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...25





000
FXUS63 KILX 031946
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 031946
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE AS OF 200 PM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO WITH MID AND UPPER 70 DEW POINTS
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. ACROSS OUR AREA...DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM,
MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS EARLY MORNING LOWS
STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAWN ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AROUND
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES STALLED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE TWO WAVES
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LACON TO PARIS. WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE EACH DAY,
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 102.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
THAT LOW SOUTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN MANITOBA BY MONDAY AND STALLING IT
THERE. DURING THAT TIME, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, DRAGGING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS IL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING WINDS, PROVIDING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS AS TO
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF
COLD AIR TO GIVE US OUR AIRMASS CHANGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH SHOWING A MUDDIER PICTURE OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GETS THE FRONT EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE EC/CANADIAN BRING THE
SECOND FRONT INTO IL ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED, BUT INDICATE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT STARTING LATE WED/WED
NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS SE OF I-55 WED NIGHT, AND ONLY SLIGHTS IN THE FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD DEVELOP STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND THURS, WHEN HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 031708
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 031708
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 031708
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 031708
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. STILL A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE...IF
ANY DO DEVELOP...TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. BASES
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 4500-6000 FEET
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM DECATUR TO CHAMPAIGN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 031544
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MORNING MVFR FOG, QUIET/VFR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING NEARBY WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS, BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HELP PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak




000
FXUS63 KILX 031544
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MICHIGAN...TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A LEAD WAVE
ELONGATED SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS NOTED
ON SATELLITE DATA TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST HAD SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT WE DID NOT GET ANY PRECIP WITH
THAT FEATURE THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUITE ISOLATED SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST
NAM-WRF MODEL TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF WE NEED TO ADD ANYTHING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATER
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95
TO 100. MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP...WILL
HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MORNING MVFR FOG, QUIET/VFR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING NEARBY WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS, BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HELP PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak





000
FXUS63 KILX 031156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MORNING MVFR FOG, QUIET/VFR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING NEARBY WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS, BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HELP PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak





000
FXUS63 KILX 031156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MORNING MVFR FOG, QUIET/VFR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING NEARBY WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS, BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO HELP PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak




000
FXUS63 KILX 030818
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN 08-12Z IN
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KBMI-KCMI LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO SMALL
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TO CONTINUE S-SW UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 030818
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER HOT LATE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.  A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON 07Z/2AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE KILX CWA...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON A TRAILING VORT MAX EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE KILX CWA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A LACON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAST TO
BREAK DOWN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS PROCESS FROM RUN-TO-
RUN...WITH BOTH THE 00Z SEP 3 GFS AND ECMWF NOW DELAYING A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  A LARGE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND NUDGE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THINK ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  FRONT WILL BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...A SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY AT THAT
TIME...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN 08-12Z IN
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KBMI-KCMI LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO SMALL
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TO CONTINUE S-SW UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 030446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND CHAMPAIGN JUST AFTER THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
THESE HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. UPDATES
WERE SENT EARLIER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN 08-12Z IN
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KBMI-KCMI LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO SMALL
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TO CONTINUE S-SW UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 030446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND CHAMPAIGN JUST AFTER THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
THESE HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. UPDATES
WERE SENT EARLIER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN 08-12Z IN
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KBMI-KCMI LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO SMALL
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TO CONTINUE S-SW UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 030446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND CHAMPAIGN JUST AFTER THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
THESE HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. UPDATES
WERE SENT EARLIER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN 08-12Z IN
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KBMI-KCMI LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO SMALL
TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS TO CONTINUE S-SW UP
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 030158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND CHAMPAIGN JUST AFTER THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
THESE HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. UPDATES
WERE SENT EARLIER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 030158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND CHAMPAIGN JUST AFTER THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
THESE HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. UPDATES
WERE SENT EARLIER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 022338
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 022338
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 022338
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 022338
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF KBMI-KCMI. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE A CONCERN AROUND KBMI-KCMI
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 022002
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TRENDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AROUND KBMI/KCMI LATE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 022002
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER HAS LARGELY FADED OUT AS EXPECTED...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER AREAS WEST OF I-55.
LOCATIONS EAST A BIT SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THESE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
AS THE WAVE DIGS. THE GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS IN BRINGING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE.
AM FAVORING MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...SUBTLE, MAINLY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FIRST OF ALL...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP A LARGE, VERY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY INDICATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INSTEAD OF A FETCH OF TROPICAL GULF AIR.
IN ADDITION, CROP MOISTURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUNTED LATELY, SO REALLY
HIGH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX IN THE 95-100 RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON-TUSCOLA-PARIS LINE LATE THURS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE SAME IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY IN EAST CENTRAL IL
AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR FROM PEORIA-
DANVILLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THEY BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH QUICKER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COOL FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD CENTRAL/SE IL.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TRENDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AROUND KBMI/KCMI LATE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Geelhart




000
FXUS63 KILX 021721
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS IOWA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS AREA IS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT
SHOWING SOME DIMINISHMENT AS OF LATE...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA...SO
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE BEEFED UP THE CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO APPROACH THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHWEST CWA IN CASE THESE
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK TOO LONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TRENDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AROUND KBMI/KCMI LATE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 021721
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS IOWA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS AREA IS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT
SHOWING SOME DIMINISHMENT AS OF LATE...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA...SO
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE BEEFED UP THE CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO APPROACH THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHWEST CWA IN CASE THESE
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK TOO LONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TRENDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AROUND KBMI/KCMI LATE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE IS
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart




000
FXUS63 KILX 021446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS IOWA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS AREA IS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT
SHOWING SOME DIMINISHMENT AS OF LATE...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA...SO
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE BEEFED UP THE CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO APPROACH THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHWEST CWA IN CASE THESE
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK TOO LONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ASIDE FROM PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY AND LATE NIGHT FOG
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak





000
FXUS63 KILX 021446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS IOWA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS AREA IS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT
SHOWING SOME DIMINISHMENT AS OF LATE...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA...SO
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE BEEFED UP THE CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO APPROACH THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHWEST CWA IN CASE THESE
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK TOO LONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ASIDE FROM PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY AND LATE NIGHT FOG
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak




000
FXUS63 KILX 021146
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ASIDE FROM PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY AND LATE NIGHT FOG
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak





000
FXUS63 KILX 021146
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ASIDE FROM PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY AND LATE NIGHT FOG
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak




000
FXUS63 KILX 020807
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE NIGHT
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
EVENING RAINFALL. 06Z TAFS INCLUDE PERIODS OF IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY
AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 13Z. WINDS FOR
THE PERIOD GENERALLY S-SW UP TO 10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 020807
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS.
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST INTO OHIO AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL STAY WELL
TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA.  MAY SEE SOME HIGH/THIN CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT OVERALL SKY
CONDITION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY...THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA
ON THURSDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-74 COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
KILX CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  THINK A MIDDLE-OF-THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST
HERE...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER REMAINING JUST N/NE OF THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...HOWEVER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AT
BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE GENERAL TREND SUGGESTING A SLOWER
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.  THINK
00Z SEP 2 ECMWF MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL PUSH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY.  DUE TO HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF THEN SHOWS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION.  TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS FROPA WILL
OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL THEREFORE CARRY
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE NIGHT
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
EVENING RAINFALL. 06Z TAFS INCLUDE PERIODS OF IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY
AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 13Z. WINDS FOR
THE PERIOD GENERALLY S-SW UP TO 10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 020445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE NIGHT
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
EVENING RAINFALL. 06Z TAFS INCLUDE PERIODS OF IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY
AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 13Z. WINDS FOR
THE PERIOD GENERALLY S-SW UP TO 10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 020445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE NIGHT
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
EVENING RAINFALL. 06Z TAFS INCLUDE PERIODS OF IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY
AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 13Z. WINDS FOR
THE PERIOD GENERALLY S-SW UP TO 10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 020205
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 020205
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 020205
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 020205
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DECATUR TO BLOOMINGTON TO
THE CHAMPAIGN AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
ALREADY DONE A FEW UPDATES FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER UPDATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AROUND 1 INCH FELL
WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...AND ONE
STORM OVER CENTRAL PIATT COUNTY ACCUMULATED A RADAR ESTIMATED 4
INCHES JUST NORTH OF I-72 AND SOUTHWEST OF LODGE. FOR
TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FOG COVERAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 012347
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 012347
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LAST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57 HAS FINALLY FADED
AWAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST...SO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NICE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST. RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE CELLS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY... BUT THESE FADED OFF QUICKLY.

CURRENTLY THINK THAT ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ALSO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...AS THERE IS
NOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS AND A WEAK
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK PROGGED TO 15-20
KNOT RANGE...SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY 67-70 DEGREES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL MODELS FORECAST 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 TO +20C...AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...LABOR DAY.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE PERIOD WHERE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED
AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INDIANA. THIS
COULD BRING SOME QPF TO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WHICH
COULD EFFECT NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PCPN IN THE AREA BUT VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNTS...WHILE GFS BRINGS SOME IN BUT ALSO SEEMS TO OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING PCPN TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU
AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AFTER ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TRYS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SFC SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GFS AND
ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF MOVING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH AMOUNTS AS
THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE
PCPN WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE...AM INCLINED TO LIMIT QPF
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH THAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE IT
LOOKS TO DEVELOP MORE PCPN THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL AS WELL WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH UPPER 80S CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL IL EARLIER
TODAY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KBMI-KDEC-K1H2 ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. TERMINALS LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE KBMI-KCMI-KDEC.
TOWARD MORNING...FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING. MAY NEED UPDATES LATER
FOR HEAVIER FOG AT KCMI-KDEC-KBMI DEPENDING ON EVENING RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT VARIABLE/GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...Onton




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