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000
FXUS63 KILX 310207
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Quiet and milder than normal conditions are expected tonight across
central and southeast Illinois. A clipper system will pass to our
north tonight, dragging the trailing cold front through the area
by Tuesday morning. The front will come through the area dry, with
fairly minimal cloud cover. The southerly winds ahead of the cold
front for much of the night will keep temperatures warmer than
they have been lately.

Going forecast is in good shape overall. Only a few tweaks are
needed for the latest hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and associated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday suggesting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A clipper
system will track across the Midwest/Great Lakes tonight, but it
will come through dry locally with minimal cloud cover. The most
notable change will be a wind shift from southwest to northwest
later tonight as the trailing cold front comes through the area.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 310207
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Quiet and milder than normal conditions are expected tonight across
central and southeast Illinois. A clipper system will pass to our
north tonight, dragging the trailing cold front through the area
by Tuesday morning. The front will come through the area dry, with
fairly minimal cloud cover. The southerly winds ahead of the cold
front for much of the night will keep temperatures warmer than
they have been lately.

Going forecast is in good shape overall. Only a few tweaks are
needed for the latest hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and associated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday suggesting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A clipper
system will track across the Midwest/Great Lakes tonight, but it
will come through dry locally with minimal cloud cover. The most
notable change will be a wind shift from southwest to northwest
later tonight as the trailing cold front comes through the area.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 302335
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
635 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and associated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday suggesting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A clipper
system will track across the Midwest/Great Lakes tonight, but it
will come through dry locally with minimal cloud cover. The most
notable change will be a wind shift from southwest to northwest
later tonight as the trailing cold front comes through the area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 302335
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
635 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and associated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday suggesting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. A clipper
system will track across the Midwest/Great Lakes tonight, but it
will come through dry locally with minimal cloud cover. The most
notable change will be a wind shift from southwest to northwest
later tonight as the trailing cold front comes through the area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 301946
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and assocated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday sugegsting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

No real change with the southwest light winds through tonight.
With passage of the next front, did time the frontal passage in
the 10-12z period across central IL in the TAFS. Winds will then
shift more to north northwest on Tuesday morning. Only sct cirrus
possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Goetsch








000
FXUS63 KILX 301946
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Surface high center in AR with southwest winds ahead of low pressure
center in northern plains. Only scattered high clouds over region as
the low center and assocated short wave tracks north of central IL,
dragging weak cold front into state overstate.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Above normal temperatures can be expected to continue into mid-week
as shortwave ridging approaches Illinois. Steady 500mb height rises
reaching almost 5700m by the time the axis pushes across the state
Wednesday. Model suite at 12z consistent in developing 850 mb temps
above 10C by Wednesday Night. An increase in cloud cover once the
ridge axis passes may temper highs somewhat on Wednesday, but even
with clouds temps should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models have been trending slower with shortwave on backside of ridge
bringing precip in late Wednesday Night.  Big challenge involves the
timing of the associated cold front.  Slower solutions suggest a
frontal passage Thursday afternoon allowing good boundary layer
moisture return and enabling 500+ J/kg CAPE to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary.  Latest GEFS suggests there is still
significant spread in amount of instability with higher values
southwest of the forecast area. If slowing trend in models continue
though the strong southwest winds ahead of the front may be able to
advect higher boundary layer moisture into area. Will have to
monitor evolution closely.

As second wave is progged to move across the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. The forecast area should be mostly into the cold air by
then. ECMWF is strongest with the strength of this wave enabling
some overrunning rainfall across the entire forecast area Friday.
GFS confines significant precip near and southeast of
I-72/Danville.  will go with a blend for now which suggest at least
some chance PoPs all the way back into KGBG and KPIA. Either way, a
dreary day may keep temps below normal as strong cold advection
evident.

This second wave should push the front out of the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast U.S. bringing a dry but cool Saturday. GFS is
stronger than ECMWF with moisture return Sunday sugegsting some low
PoPs may be needed by Sunday afternoon.  This seems a bit fast and
will generally follow drier ECMWF which holds off on introducing
PoPs until Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

No real change with the southwest light winds through tonight.
With passage of the next front, did time the frontal passage in
the 10-12z period across central IL in the TAFS. Winds will then
shift more to north northwest on Tuesday morning. Only sct cirrus
possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Goetsch







000
FXUS63 KILX 301728
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure centered over AR will continue to drift to the
southeast, with light southwest winds over central IL. Some high
clouds drifting southeast over northern IL from weak short wave in
the upper plains. Only forecast concern is the approaching weak
front by Tuesday morning and the timing of frontal passage. Winds
will shift to the northwest with frontal passage. Conditions
though will remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

No real change with the southwest light winds through tonight.
With passage of the next front, did time the frontal passage in
the 10-12z period across central IL in the TAFS. Winds will then
shift more to north northwest on Tuesday morning. Only sct cirrus
possible.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Goetsch







000
FXUS63 KILX 301556
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure centered over AR will continue to drift to the
southeast, with light southwest winds over central IL. Some high
clouds drifting southeast over northern IL from weak short wave in
the upper plains. Only forecast concern is the approaching weak
front by Tuesday morning and the timing of frontal passage. Winds
will shift to the northwest with frontal passage. Conditions
though will remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 301148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 301148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 301148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 301148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
648 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 300802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 300802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 300802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 300802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 300446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 300446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 300149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 300149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 300149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 300149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.

Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 292355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 292355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 292355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 292355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 291944
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forcast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 291944
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.

Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.

Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forcast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.

After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 291723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 291723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 291723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 291723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Initial band of rain is now exiting KCMI, although another band is
expected to develop around mid-afternoon. KCMI/KDEC are most
likely to be affected by this next band in the 21-23Z time frame.
Like the earlier rain, mainly VFR conditions expected, with
perhaps visibility briefly dipping to around 4-5SM if one of the
heavier showers happens to pass over the airport. The strongest
wind gusts will be early in the afternoon, but gusts to around 25
knots still likely mid-late afternoon. A frontal boundary will be
moving through the TAF sites in the 23Z-02Z time frame, switching
winds around to the northwest. These winds will diminish and turn
more southwest overnight, as an area of high pressure settles
across Missouri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 291442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 291442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 291442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 291442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 291146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 291146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 290835
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 290835
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290835
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290835
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening.  Keeping the
slight chances in the east.  Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday.  Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging.  However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest.  Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF.  The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial fropa. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential.  Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 290438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 290438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period
despite passage of a frontal boundary Sunday evening. Clear skies
initially will give way to increasing high clouds toward dawn. As
the front approaches, a band of mid-level clouds and scattered
light showers will develop across the area Sunday morning.
NAM/Rapid Refresh timing still indicates showers arriving at KPIA
by 14z, then further east to KCMI by around 16z. Front will have
very little moisture to work with and strongest upper dynamics are
expected to stay well to the north across the Upper Midwest, so am
not expecting widespread rainfall. Will therefore maintain just
VCSH at the terminals into the afternoon. Light S/SE winds tonight
will increase markedly, with forecast soundings suggesting gusts
reaching the 25 to 30kt range by Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually veer to S/SW, then will decrease and become NW between
02z and 05z as the front passes.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 290137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 290137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 290137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1028mb high centered over Ohio
and a 999mb low upstream across North Dakota. As the gradient
between these two features tightens, increasing S/SE winds will
develop across central Illinois tonight. Current winds are only
around 5 mph, but are expected to increase to between 10 and 15mph
after midnight. As a result of the southerly winds, low temperatures
in the upper 20s and lower 30s will be achieved this evening,
followed by steady or slowly rising readings overnight. Latest
Rapid Refresh keeps any precip associated with the approaching low
and its associated frontal boundary west of the area until
mid-morning Sunday. As a result, am expecting dry conditions
through the night. Current forecast has a good handle on things,
so no update is needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 282349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes









000
FXUS63 KILX 282349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 282349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes









000
FXUS63 KILX 282349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model consensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Storm system currently over Montana will track into the northern
Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, pulling a frontal boundary
through central Illinois by Sunday evening. Ahead of the front,
strong/gusty S/SW winds will develop late tonight through Sunday,
with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the 25 to 30kt range.
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop in advance of the
boundary: however, areal coverage of thunder will remain too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Rapid Refresh and NAM timing
appear similar, with showers arriving at KPIA by 14z, then further
east to KCMI by 16z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 281957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
lastest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model concensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 281957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
lastest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model concensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 281957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
lastest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model concensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 281957
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

High pressure centered over southern Lake Michigan early this
afternoon is resulting in little afternoon cloud cover over our
area. Earlier mid/high clouds associated with the Missouri shortwave
moved out late this morning. Still rather chilly for this time of
year, with temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s as of 2 pm.

Focus through the night will be with the shortwave currently pushing
through Montana, which is progged to be approaching western
Wisconsin/northwest Illinois early Sunday morning. Only significant
impact for us before sunrise will be with increasing southerly winds
after midnight, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. High
clouds will be on the increase as well across the northwest CWA,
while the southeast remains mostly clear through the night. The
increase in winds will slow the temperature descent overnight, with
most areas seeing fairly steady temperatures after midnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Fast moving shortwave and frontal boundary will affect the area on
Sunday bringing gusty south winds and light rain to most of the
forecast area. Fairly decent lift and impressive 700-500 mb lapse rates
suggest an isolated rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
in the morning. Still thinking by the time the precip gets into our
far northwest counties Sunday morning, surface temperatures should
have risen above freezing so will continue from previous forecast
in not including any mention of freezing precip as the rain spreads
east as the morning wears on. Lowest POPs continue to be over
southeast Illinois in the morning with high chance POPs in the
afternoon and early evening before the rain threat shifts off to
our east by sunset. Forecast soundings continue to suggest some
gusty winds starting up by mid-morning into the late afternoon
hours with gusts around 35 mph at times, especially across the
northern third of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few gusts approach 40 mph at Bloomington and Champaign early in
the afternoon.

The upper forcing is forecast to shift away from the area Sunday
evening with high pressure settling in from the west on Monday into
early Tuesday before another shortwave approaches the area Monday
night into Tuesday. Models continue to indicate the better lift and
moisture with this system will remain to our north so will continue
to keep rain chances out of our area into Tuesday. As the shortwave
shifts away from the Midwest on Tuesday, the front will settle
southeast into the Ohio River valley by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure edges southeast across the Great Lakes. Models do indicate a
weak upper wave over southeast KS into northwest Arkansas late
Tuesday with some showers associated with that feature, expected to
stay south of our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
lastest ECMWF does indicate a jog to the northeast from the weak
shortwave into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday, which may be in
response to the stronger northern stream shortwave over the Dakotas
which may be drawing the feature northward. At this time will
continue to keep most of our area dry through Wednesday as models
suggest a slower transition of the stronger northern stream wave to
the east mid-week and the associated precip chances with it.

After Wednesday, we see some significant differences with respect to
the upper trof to our west and how quickly the storm system
associated with it gets kicked out and into the Midwest towards the
end of the work week. Model concensus indicates after our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday associated with a cold front that
temporarily shifts southeast Thursday evening, a much stronger wave
moves up the boundary into our area on Friday bringing another round
of showers and storms to the region. The 00z ECMWF indicated a much
stronger upper wave which actually brought the surface low up
sharply to the west of our area suggesting the potential for heavy
rain and widespread severe weather on Friday, while the GFS was
flatter with the surface low track with more rain and isolated
storms on Friday as the low tracked mainly to our south. The latest
ECMWF has trended towards the last two runs of the GFS, but still
brings the low a bit further north on Friday, resulting in the
potential for heavy rainfall, especially across our north. Looks
like a rather active pattern to end the month of March with over
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 281735
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 281735
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 281735
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 281735
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Main TAF concerns will be in the period after 06Z. Before then,
winds generally trending east-southeast with mostly clear skies
prevailing. After that, focus shifts to an incoming frontal
boundary from the northwest. Southeast winds expected to increase
to above 10 knots overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. On
Sunday morning, winds turn southerly and will be gusting 20-30
knots much of the morning, as a low level jet moves overhead.
Period of rain showers expected to spread eastward during the
15-18Z time frame. Some of the model guidance suggests some
thunder potential late Sunday morning, but enough uncertainty
exists to leave it out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will
gradually lower and should be in the low-end VFR range as the
showers move through.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 281435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 281435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 281435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 281435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Forecast area remains on the periphery of the fast-moving upper
wave that has produced the light snow across Missouri this
morning, with mainly mid and high clouds. However, these have been
becoming less numerous, and sunshine will be abundant through the
afternoon. Area of high pressure over Lake Michigan will keep
winds generally 10 mph or less out of an easterly direction, with
speeds diminishing through the afternoon. Forecast is pretty much
on track and only required some minor tweaks to incorporate the
current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.

Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 281132
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 281132
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 281132
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 281132
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. High pressure will produce variable
to light NE-SE winds and mostly clear skies through late evening.
Increasing southerly winds and high cloud cover are expected
through the remainder of the night as a warm front approaches from
the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 280814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 280814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 280814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 280814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 280443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet but very cool weather is expected overnight across central
and southeast Illinois. A building area of high pressure, of
Canadian origin, will help ensure this line of thinking. Going
forecast has the benign conditions anticipated overnight well
covered. Only a few tweaks are needed to the hourly grids for the
latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Persistent area of snow showers that originated in northeast
Illinois off Lake Michigan early this morning passed through much of
east central Illinois east of I-57 earlier today. Webcams showed
some light accumulations around Danville from some of the heavier
showers. Most of these showers were in Indiana by 2 pm, although
some light snow showers linger just west of the border as well. Dry
air has been spreading over more and more of central Illinois as
time goes on, with dew points down to around 10 degrees from Peoria
north and west, where skies have been largely clear the last few
hours.

The clouds are very cellular/diurnal in nature on visible satellite,
and most areas should become mostly clear by sunset with loss of
daytime heating. However, cirrus has been overspreading western Iowa
and northwest Missouri ahead of the next shortwave. This should
spread into western parts of the forecast area overnight, but any
associated precipitation will remain west of the Mississippi River.
With lesser cloud cover across the east, lows should reach the upper
teens, while low-mid 20s prevail across the west half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday
keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our
area. Another chilly day expected as the center of the cold air mass
will be shifting just to our north in the morning, and then off
to east central Indiana by evening. Coolest temperatures will be
across east central Illinois where afternoon readings will struggle
to reach 40 degrees. Looks like a fast drop in temperatures tomorrow
evening before a return southerly flow sets up over west central
Illinois late in the evening. A gusty south wind on Sunday should
help bring in some warmer air to the forecast area ahead of the
next shortwave and attendant frontal boundary. Wind gusts may
approach 40 mph over parts of central Illinois on Sunday with rain
chances increasing from west to east during the morning and then
continuing into Sunday evening. Very narrow window of opportunity
for a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning across the far north but
latest model trends were backing off that idea as the precip was a
bit slower to get in plus 2 meter temps were warming during the
early morning hours. If that trend continues, we could probably
leave the mention of rain/snow out in the north.

The threat of rain will end from west to east Sunday evening as the
shortwave shifts quickly away from our area with a weak area of high
pressure tracking to our south on Monday. Another quick moving
shortwave will track across the upper Great Lakes late Monday into
early Tuesday taking the bulk of the lift and rain threat to our
north Monday night into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds ahead of
this wave should help push temps into the 60s most areas Monday
afternoon with overnight lows not expected to drop much below the
low to mid 40s. Quiet weather is then expected to push into our area
for Tuesday afternoon thru most of Wednesday before a stronger upper
wave and surface low start to affect our area late Wednesday into
Thursday, and possibly beyond. Models showing quite a large spread
with respect to the handling of the upper pattern out over the
western U.S. with the latest ECMWF more aggressive in pushing the
upper trof east into the Midwest by the end of next week bringing
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, while the GFS was
holding the upper low out over the central Rockies. Looks like a
rather unsettled weather pattern for the second half of next week
with significant timing differences seen with respect to the
individual shortwaves ejecting out of the longwave trof and even
disagreement in how quickly the large upper trof ejects east into
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 280443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet but very cool weather is expected overnight across central
and southeast Illinois. A building area of high pressure, of
Canadian origin, will help ensure this line of thinking. Going
forecast has the benign conditions anticipated overnight well
covered. Only a few tweaks are needed to the hourly grids for the
latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Persistent area of snow showers that originated in northeast
Illinois off Lake Michigan early this morning passed through much of
east central Illinois east of I-57 earlier today. Webcams showed
some light accumulations around Danville from some of the heavier
showers. Most of these showers were in Indiana by 2 pm, although
some light snow showers linger just west of the border as well. Dry
air has been spreading over more and more of central Illinois as
time goes on, with dew points down to around 10 degrees from Peoria
north and west, where skies have been largely clear the last few
hours.

The clouds are very cellular/diurnal in nature on visible satellite,
and most areas should become mostly clear by sunset with loss of
daytime heating. However, cirrus has been overspreading western Iowa
and northwest Missouri ahead of the next shortwave. This should
spread into western parts of the forecast area overnight, but any
associated precipitation will remain west of the Mississippi River.
With lesser cloud cover across the east, lows should reach the upper
teens, while low-mid 20s prevail across the west half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday
keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our
area. Another chilly day expected as the center of the cold air mass
will be shifting just to our north in the morning, and then off
to east central Indiana by evening. Coolest temperatures will be
across east central Illinois where afternoon readings will struggle
to reach 40 degrees. Looks like a fast drop in temperatures tomorrow
evening before a return southerly flow sets up over west central
Illinois late in the evening. A gusty south wind on Sunday should
help bring in some warmer air to the forecast area ahead of the
next shortwave and attendant frontal boundary. Wind gusts may
approach 40 mph over parts of central Illinois on Sunday with rain
chances increasing from west to east during the morning and then
continuing into Sunday evening. Very narrow window of opportunity
for a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning across the far north but
latest model trends were backing off that idea as the precip was a
bit slower to get in plus 2 meter temps were warming during the
early morning hours. If that trend continues, we could probably
leave the mention of rain/snow out in the north.

The threat of rain will end from west to east Sunday evening as the
shortwave shifts quickly away from our area with a weak area of high
pressure tracking to our south on Monday. Another quick moving
shortwave will track across the upper Great Lakes late Monday into
early Tuesday taking the bulk of the lift and rain threat to our
north Monday night into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds ahead of
this wave should help push temps into the 60s most areas Monday
afternoon with overnight lows not expected to drop much below the
low to mid 40s. Quiet weather is then expected to push into our area
for Tuesday afternoon thru most of Wednesday before a stronger upper
wave and surface low start to affect our area late Wednesday into
Thursday, and possibly beyond. Models showing quite a large spread
with respect to the handling of the upper pattern out over the
western U.S. with the latest ECMWF more aggressive in pushing the
upper trof east into the Midwest by the end of next week bringing
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, while the GFS was
holding the upper low out over the central Rockies. Looks like a
rather unsettled weather pattern for the second half of next week
with significant timing differences seen with respect to the
individual shortwaves ejecting out of the longwave trof and even
disagreement in how quickly the large upper trof ejects east into
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 280443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet but very cool weather is expected overnight across central
and southeast Illinois. A building area of high pressure, of
Canadian origin, will help ensure this line of thinking. Going
forecast has the benign conditions anticipated overnight well
covered. Only a few tweaks are needed to the hourly grids for the
latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Persistent area of snow showers that originated in northeast
Illinois off Lake Michigan early this morning passed through much of
east central Illinois east of I-57 earlier today. Webcams showed
some light accumulations around Danville from some of the heavier
showers. Most of these showers were in Indiana by 2 pm, although
some light snow showers linger just west of the border as well. Dry
air has been spreading over more and more of central Illinois as
time goes on, with dew points down to around 10 degrees from Peoria
north and west, where skies have been largely clear the last few
hours.

The clouds are very cellular/diurnal in nature on visible satellite,
and most areas should become mostly clear by sunset with loss of
daytime heating. However, cirrus has been overspreading western Iowa
and northwest Missouri ahead of the next shortwave. This should
spread into western parts of the forecast area overnight, but any
associated precipitation will remain west of the Mississippi River.
With lesser cloud cover across the east, lows should reach the upper
teens, while low-mid 20s prevail across the west half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday
keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our
area. Another chilly day expected as the center of the cold air mass
will be shifting just to our north in the morning, and then off
to east central Indiana by evening. Coolest temperatures will be
across east central Illinois where afternoon readings will struggle
to reach 40 degrees. Looks like a fast drop in temperatures tomorrow
evening before a return southerly flow sets up over west central
Illinois late in the evening. A gusty south wind on Sunday should
help bring in some warmer air to the forecast area ahead of the
next shortwave and attendant frontal boundary. Wind gusts may
approach 40 mph over parts of central Illinois on Sunday with rain
chances increasing from west to east during the morning and then
continuing into Sunday evening. Very narrow window of opportunity
for a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning across the far north but
latest model trends were backing off that idea as the precip was a
bit slower to get in plus 2 meter temps were warming during the
early morning hours. If that trend continues, we could probably
leave the mention of rain/snow out in the north.

The threat of rain will end from west to east Sunday evening as the
shortwave shifts quickly away from our area with a weak area of high
pressure tracking to our south on Monday. Another quick moving
shortwave will track across the upper Great Lakes late Monday into
early Tuesday taking the bulk of the lift and rain threat to our
north Monday night into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds ahead of
this wave should help push temps into the 60s most areas Monday
afternoon with overnight lows not expected to drop much below the
low to mid 40s. Quiet weather is then expected to push into our area
for Tuesday afternoon thru most of Wednesday before a stronger upper
wave and surface low start to affect our area late Wednesday into
Thursday, and possibly beyond. Models showing quite a large spread
with respect to the handling of the upper pattern out over the
western U.S. with the latest ECMWF more aggressive in pushing the
upper trof east into the Midwest by the end of next week bringing
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, while the GFS was
holding the upper low out over the central Rockies. Looks like a
rather unsettled weather pattern for the second half of next week
with significant timing differences seen with respect to the
individual shortwaves ejecting out of the longwave trof and even
disagreement in how quickly the large upper trof ejects east into
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 280443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet but very cool weather is expected overnight across central
and southeast Illinois. A building area of high pressure, of
Canadian origin, will help ensure this line of thinking. Going
forecast has the benign conditions anticipated overnight well
covered. Only a few tweaks are needed to the hourly grids for the
latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Persistent area of snow showers that originated in northeast
Illinois off Lake Michigan early this morning passed through much of
east central Illinois east of I-57 earlier today. Webcams showed
some light accumulations around Danville from some of the heavier
showers. Most of these showers were in Indiana by 2 pm, although
some light snow showers linger just west of the border as well. Dry
air has been spreading over more and more of central Illinois as
time goes on, with dew points down to around 10 degrees from Peoria
north and west, where skies have been largely clear the last few
hours.

The clouds are very cellular/diurnal in nature on visible satellite,
and most areas should become mostly clear by sunset with loss of
daytime heating. However, cirrus has been overspreading western Iowa
and northwest Missouri ahead of the next shortwave. This should
spread into western parts of the forecast area overnight, but any
associated precipitation will remain west of the Mississippi River.
With lesser cloud cover across the east, lows should reach the upper
teens, while low-mid 20s prevail across the west half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday
keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our
area. Another chilly day expected as the center of the cold air mass
will be shifting just to our north in the morning, and then off
to east central Indiana by evening. Coolest temperatures will be
across east central Illinois where afternoon readings will struggle
to reach 40 degrees. Looks like a fast drop in temperatures tomorrow
evening before a return southerly flow sets up over west central
Illinois late in the evening. A gusty south wind on Sunday should
help bring in some warmer air to the forecast area ahead of the
next shortwave and attendant frontal boundary. Wind gusts may
approach 40 mph over parts of central Illinois on Sunday with rain
chances increasing from west to east during the morning and then
continuing into Sunday evening. Very narrow window of opportunity
for a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning across the far north but
latest model trends were backing off that idea as the precip was a
bit slower to get in plus 2 meter temps were warming during the
early morning hours. If that trend continues, we could probably
leave the mention of rain/snow out in the north.

The threat of rain will end from west to east Sunday evening as the
shortwave shifts quickly away from our area with a weak area of high
pressure tracking to our south on Monday. Another quick moving
shortwave will track across the upper Great Lakes late Monday into
early Tuesday taking the bulk of the lift and rain threat to our
north Monday night into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds ahead of
this wave should help push temps into the 60s most areas Monday
afternoon with overnight lows not expected to drop much below the
low to mid 40s. Quiet weather is then expected to push into our area
for Tuesday afternoon thru most of Wednesday before a stronger upper
wave and surface low start to affect our area late Wednesday into
Thursday, and possibly beyond. Models showing quite a large spread
with respect to the handling of the upper pattern out over the
western U.S. with the latest ECMWF more aggressive in pushing the
upper trof east into the Midwest by the end of next week bringing
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, while the GFS was
holding the upper low out over the central Rockies. Looks like a
rather unsettled weather pattern for the second half of next week
with significant timing differences seen with respect to the
individual shortwaves ejecting out of the longwave trof and even
disagreement in how quickly the large upper trof ejects east into
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak








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