000
FXUS63 KILX 191145
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
645 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 251 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAS NOW SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. COOL/DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 07Z/2AM DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA. THIS DRY AIRMASS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE SEVERAL ITERATIONS OF THE WRF MODEL
ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST...THINK IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL REMAIN
JUST S/SW OF THE KILX CWA.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA POTENTIALLY TRIGGERS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THINK AIRMASS
WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY
JUST A 20 POP ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS MEAGER DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY DETERMINING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GFS HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...KEEPING BULK OF PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPPER RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
STAYING NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
HOT/HUMID WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY ALLOWING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SPEED IN WHICH
THIS PROCESS OCCURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
FROM RUN TO RUN. BOTTOM LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA ON MONDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN RIDGE RE-POSITIONS ITSELF
FURTHER WEST.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM THU. FAIR WX DUE
TO 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN AND RIDGING SW
INTO MO...AND TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAWN THU. PATCHY SHALLOW/GROUND FOG OVER SE
IL TO LIFT BY 13Z/8 AM AND STAY SE OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED-BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE OVER IA/MO WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE SW HALF OF IL THIS MORNING AND AFFECT SPI AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR NE AS PIA AND DEC BUT ANY CEILINGS WOULD STAY
ABOVE 10K FT. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 4-5K FT TO DEVELOP AFTER
15Z/10 AM AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN CEILINGS MAINLY
STAYING SOUTH OF I-72 OVER SE IL THIS AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BY SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. NE
WINDS 4-8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO TURN EAST LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON IN 6-10 KT RANGE...THEN BECOME LIGHT ESE AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 190751
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 251 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAS NOW SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. COOL/DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 07Z/2AM DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA. THIS DRY AIRMASS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE SEVERAL ITERATIONS OF THE WRF MODEL
ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST...THINK IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL REMAIN
JUST S/SW OF THE KILX CWA.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA POTENTIALLY TRIGGERS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THINK AIRMASS
WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY
JUST A 20 POP ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS MEAGER DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY DETERMINING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GFS HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...KEEPING BULK OF PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY WARM/DRY DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPPER RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
STAYING NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
HOT/HUMID WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY ALLOWING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SPEED IN WHICH
THIS PROCESS OCCURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
FROM RUN TO RUN. BOTTOM LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA ON MONDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN RIDGE RE-POSITIONS ITSELF
FURTHER WEST.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN ONLY EXPECTING SOME
SCATTERED CU TOMORROW AT AROUND 4KFT. THIS CU WILL NOT BE DIURNAL
SO AM EXPECTING IT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME EASTERLY
TOMORROW. THEN EXPECTING VARIABLE WINDS TOMORROW EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BACK TO SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
TOMORROW EVENING SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 190454
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 858 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GREATLY DECREASED AND SEVERE THREAT
IS GONE. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SO WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN ONLY EXPECTING SOME
SCATTERED CU TOMORROW AT AROUND 4KFT. THIS CU WILL NOT BE DIURNAL
SO AM EXPECTING IT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME EASTERLY
TOMORROW. THEN EXPECTING VARIABLE WINDS TOMORROW EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BACK TO SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
TOMORROW EVENING SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SUMMER MOVES INTO FULL SWING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB...ACROSS DECATUR...TO
NEAR TERRE HAUTE. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEW POINTS ARE
OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILITY COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST...RIDGE SHOULD BUILD AHEAD OF IT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH RISES OF 160 METERS AT 500MB BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATE JUNE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO COME AROUND TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO CLIMB. COMBINATION OF
HUMIDITY AND TEMPS SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND
102 ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS IS WHETHER RIDGING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE WEAKEST AND DEVELOP A PATTERN THAT IS MOST CONDUCIVE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION. 12Z GFS/GEM IS STRONGER WITH RIDGE AND SUGGEST
THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
THIS TRANSITION MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 190158
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 858 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GREATLY DECREASED AND SEVERE THREAT
IS GONE. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SO WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT KDEC AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
OF THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO BISECTING THE AREA.
KPIA...KBMI...AND KCMI ARE ALL NORTH OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
NORTHEAST WINDS. KSPI IS STILL SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT PASSAGE SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BRINGING
THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST THERE AS WELL. BY 01Z CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER IN THE KDEC AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SCOURES OUT THE OUTFLOW THAT HAS BEEN REJUVINATING CONVECTION.
ONCE FRONT CLEARS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...SKC-SCT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY.
BARKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SUMMER MOVES INTO FULL SWING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB...ACROSS DECATUR...TO
NEAR TERRE HAUTE. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEW POINTS ARE
OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILITY COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST...RIDGE SHOULD BUILD AHEAD OF IT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH RISES OF 160 METERS AT 500MB BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATE JUNE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO COME AROUND TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO CLIMB. COMBINATION OF
HUMIDITY AND TEMPS SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND
102 ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS IS WHETHER RIDGING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE WEAKEST AND DEVELOP A PATTERN THAT IS MOST CONDUCIVE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION. 12Z GFS/GEM IS STRONGER WITH RIDGE AND SUGGEST
THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
THIS TRANSITION MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 182304
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SUMMER MOVES INTO FULL SWING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB...ACROSS DECATUR...TO
NEAR TERRE HAUTE. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEW POINTS ARE
OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILITY COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST...RIDGE SHOULD BUILD AHEAD OF IT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH RISES OF 160 METERS AT 500MB BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATE JUNE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO COME AROUND TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO CLIMB. COMBINATION OF
HUMIDITY AND TEMPS SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND
102 ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS IS WHETHER RIDGING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE WEAKEST AND DEVELOP A PATTERN THAT IS MOST CONDUCIVE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION. 12Z GFS/GEM IS STRONGER WITH RIDGE AND SUGGEST
THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
THIS TRANSITION MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT KDEC AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
OF THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO BISECTING THE AREA.
KPIA...KBMI...AND KCMI ARE ALL NORTH OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
NORTHEAST WINDS. KSPI IS STILL SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS...BUT PASSAGE SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BRINGING
THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST THERE AS WELL. BY 01Z CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER IN THE KDEC AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SCOURES OUT THE OUTFLOW THAT HAS BEEN REJUVINATING CONVECTION.
ONCE FRONT CLEARS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...SKC-SCT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY.
BARKER
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 181834
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
134 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SUMMER MOVES INTO FULL SWING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB...ACROSS DECATUR...TO
NEAR TERRE HAUTE. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEW POINTS ARE
OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. DIURNAL STABILITY COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD END RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST...RIDGE SHOULD BUILD AHEAD OF IT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH RISES OF 160 METERS AT 500MB BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATE JUNE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO COME AROUND TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO CLIMB. COMBINATION OF
HUMIDITY AND TEMPS SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND
102 ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS IS WHETHER RIDGING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
ARE WEAKEST AND DEVELOP A PATTERN THAT IS MOST CONDUCIVE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION. 12Z GFS/GEM IS STRONGER WITH RIDGE AND SUGGEST
THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REDEVELOPING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
THIS TRANSITION MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR MODEL TRENDS.
BARKER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF SET IS TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING AROUND 19-20Z AND
MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT
VCTS WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
FOCUSED ON THE KSPI-KDEC-KCMI CORRIDOR BY ADDING TEMPO PERIODS OF
TSRA AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS...AS THIS AREA IS
NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION FADE OUT WITH
SUNSET. DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY OVERNIGHT MVFR FOG CONDITIONS...
BUT ANY AREAS THAT GET EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MAY SEE
SOME DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 181719
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND THE I-74
CORRIDOR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ABOUT PEORIA TO
WINCHESTER EASTWARD. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...SO THIS RISK AREA APPEARS WARRANTED. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS AS PWAT VALUES IN
THAT AREA ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ZONE/GRID UPDATES...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF SET IS TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING AROUND 19-20Z AND
MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT
VCTS WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
FOCUSED ON THE KSPI-KDEC-KCMI CORRIDOR BY ADDING TEMPO PERIODS OF
TSRA AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS...AS THIS AREA IS
NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION FADE OUT WITH
SUNSET. DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY OVERNIGHT MVFR FOG CONDITIONS...
BUT ANY AREAS THAT GET EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MAY SEE
SOME DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 181511
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND THE I-74
CORRIDOR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ABOUT PEORIA TO
WINCHESTER EASTWARD. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...SO THIS RISK AREA APPEARS WARRANTED. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS AS PWAT VALUES IN
THAT AREA ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ZONE/GRID UPDATES...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL IL TAF SITES NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY AT BMI AND CMI ALONG WITH 500 FOOT BROKEN
CEILINGS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-74 EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. ALSO A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE (572 DM 500 MB LOW) NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL TRACK SE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
I-74 TAF SITES MAY BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VFR BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED OUT EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR BETWEEN
02-04Z THIS EVENING. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL TURN NE AND
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS DURING THIS MORNING AND HAVE RECENTLY DONE SO
AT BMI AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTHWARD FROM I-74. NE WINDS TO
DIMINISH LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 181151
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
651 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIRMASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL IL TAF SITES NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY AT BMI AND CMI ALONG WITH 500 FOOT BROKEN
CEILINGS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-74 EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. ALSO A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE (572 DM 500 MB LOW) NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL TRACK SE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
I-74 TAF SITES MAY BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VFR BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED OUT EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR BETWEEN
02-04Z THIS EVENING. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL TURN NE AND
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS DURING THIS MORNING AND HAVE RECENLY DONE SO
AT BMI AS FRONTAL BOUNARY EASES SOUTHWARD FROM I-74. NE WINDS TO
DIMINISH LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 180754
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIRMASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THEN EXPECTING LIGHT FOG TO
REDEVELOP...BUT NOT AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT AND NOT AS SOON. SO LIGHT
FOG WILL BE IN MVFR CATEGORY TOWARD MORNING AND LIKELY DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CU DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. SO WILL HAVE VCTS AT
PIA...BMI...CMI FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SPI AND
DEC AS WELL GIVEN THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EXISTING STORMS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEN AROUND SUNSET EXPECTING
PCPN TO END AND ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME SCATTERED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING. DO NOT SE FOG POTENTIAL
TOMORROW NIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY
ALONG THE FRONT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 180453
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK BUT MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AND EXTENDED IT A FEW MORE HOURS...TIL
MIDNIGHT. THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS FINE WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO WILL BE
MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THEN EXPECTING LIGHT FOG TO
REDEVELOP...BUT NOT AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT AND NOT AS SOON. SO LIGHT
FOG WILL BE IN MVFR CATEGORY TOWARD MORNING AND LIKELY DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CU DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. SO WILL HAVE VCTS AT
PIA...BMI...CMI FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SPI AND
DEC AS WELL GIVEN THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EXISTING STORMS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEN AROUND SUNSET EXPECTING
PCPN TO END AND ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME SCATTERED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING. DO NOT SE FOG POTENTIAL
TOMORROW NIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY
ALONG THE FRONT AND TOMORROW EVENING.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER MISSOURI...
AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EDGE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LAST NIGHT
PRODUCING A DISTINCT MCV OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MO WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SE MO AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOKING NORTH...
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING E-SE ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONCE SUCH WAVE PUSHING ACRS WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
WILL PUSH ACRS EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT SO OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE (ISOLATED WORDING) FOR THIS EVENING ACRS THE FAR
NORTH...IT STILL APPEARS THE BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE MISSOURI MCV AS IT TRACKS ESE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACRS NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN WHAT MODELS WERE DEPICTING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING THIS WAVE ESE INTO THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...IT STILL WARRANTS SLIGHT
CHANCE (ISOLATED COVERAGE) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND UK...WERE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL U.S...TAKING THE STRONGER 500 MB FLOW FURTHER NORTH
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT TAKES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE RIDGE AXIS
TO OUR WEST...KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE MUCH FLATTER OVER THE LOWER
48...WHICH GIVES OUR AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKS
AS IF THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE OVERDONE...COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS
SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. SO FAR THIS SPRING...THE SHORTWAVES
EJECTING ENE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FLATTER. WILL TEND
TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF THIS PERIOD BUT IT WON`T MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HOT
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS
THE NORTH.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 180202
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
902 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK BUT MAY NEED TO TWEAK THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AND EXTENDED IT A FEW MORE HOURS...TIL
MIDNIGHT. THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS FINE WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO WILL BE
MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ALL TAF SITES WILL START WITH HIGH CIRRUS THIS EVENING. AS THE
SYSTEM DOWN OVER SOUTHERN IL MOVES EAST THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN.
NOT EXPECTING VIS TO GO AS LOW AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP
VIS AT LOWER MVFR LEVELS. THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS HAVE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
HAVE VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND IN THE AFTERNOON.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER MISSOURI...
AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EDGE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LAST NIGHT
PRODUCING A DISTINCT MCV OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MO WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SE MO AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOKING NORTH...
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING E-SE ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONCE SUCH WAVE PUSHING ACRS WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
WILL PUSH ACRS EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT SO OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE (ISOLATED WORDING) FOR THIS EVENING ACRS THE FAR
NORTH...IT STILL APPEARS THE BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE MISSOURI MCV AS IT TRACKS ESE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACRS NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN WHAT MODELS WERE DEPICTING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING THIS WAVE ESE INTO THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...IT STILL WARRANTS SLIGHT
CHANCE (ISOLATED COVERAGE) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND UK...WERE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL U.S...TAKING THE STRONGER 500 MB FLOW FURTHER NORTH
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT TAKES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE RIDGE AXIS
TO OUR WEST...KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE MUCH FLATTER OVER THE LOWER
48...WHICH GIVES OUR AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKS
AS IF THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE OVERDONE...COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS
SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. SO FAR THIS SPRING...THE SHORTWAVES
EJECTING ENE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FLATTER. WILL TEND
TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF THIS PERIOD BUT IT WON`T MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HOT
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS
THE NORTH.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 172334
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
634 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER MISSOURI...
AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EDGE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LAST NIGHT
PRODUCING A DISTINCT MCV OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MO WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SE MO AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOKING NORTH...
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING E-SE ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONCE SUCH WAVE PUSHING ACRS WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
WILL PUSH ACRS EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT SO OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE (ISOLATED WORDING) FOR THIS EVENING ACRS THE FAR
NORTH...IT STILL APPEARS THE BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE MISSOURI MCV AS IT TRACKS ESE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACRS NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN WHAT MODELS WERE DEPICTING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING THIS WAVE ESE INTO THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...IT STILL WARRANTS SLIGHT
CHANCE (ISOLATED COVERAGE) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND UK...WERE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL U.S...TAKING THE STRONGER 500 MB FLOW FURTHER NORTH
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT TAKES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE RIDGE AXIS
TO OUR WEST...KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE MUCH FLATTER OVER THE LOWER
48...WHICH GIVES OUR AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKS
AS IF THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE OVERDONE...COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS
SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. SO FAR THIS SPRING...THE SHORTWAVES
EJECTING ENE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FLATTER. WILL TEND
TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF THIS PERIOD BUT IT WON`T MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HOT
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS
THE NORTH.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ALL TAF SITES WILL START WITH HIGH CIRRUS THIS EVENING. AS THE
SYSTEM DOWN OVER SOUTHERN IL MOVES EAST THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN.
NOT EXPECTING VIS TO GO AS LOW AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP
VIS AT LOWER MVFR LEVELS. THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS HAVE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
HAVE VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND IN THE AFTERNOON.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 171934
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER MISSOURI...
AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EDGE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LAST NIGHT
PRODUCING A DISTINT MCV OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MO WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SE MO AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOKING NORTH...
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING E-SE ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONCE SUCH WAVE PUSHING ACRS WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
WILL PUSH ACRS EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT SO OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE (ISOLATED WORDING) FOR THIS EVENING ACRS THE FAR
NORTH...IT STILL APPEARS THE BETTER PROBABILTIES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE MISSOURI MCV AS IT TRACKS ESE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACRS NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN WHAT MODELS WERE DEPICTING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING THIS WAVE ESE INTO THE LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BUT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...IT STILL WARRANTS SLIGHT
CHANCE (ISOLATED COVERAGE) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND UK...WERE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL U.S...TAKING THE STRONGER 500 MB FLOW FURTHER NORTH
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AS IT TAKES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROF ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE RIDGE AXIS
TO OUR WEST...KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE MUCH FLATTER OVER THE LOWER
48...WHICH GIVES OUR AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. LOOKS
AS IF THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE OVERDONE...COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS
SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. SO FAR THIS SPRING...THE SHORTWAVES
EJECTING ENE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FLATTER. WILL TEND
TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ECMWF THIS PERIOD BUT IT WON`T MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HOT
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS
THE NORTH.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN CONCERN WITH 18Z TAF SET INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP
CONVECTION. MIDDAY SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THEM. THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD NOT MOVE
MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THEM. THUS...AM THINKING THAT ONLY KSPI/KDEC/KCMI MAY SEE A
THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCTS MENTION AT THESE SITES. ANY THUNDER NEAR THE TAF
SITES SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT DO NOT THINK IT
WILL GET AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS MORNING...DUE TO HIGHER
RANGES BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 171708
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED...WITH JUST A BIT OF HAZE
LINGERING NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS IS
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
BROAD POOL OF DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT TOO
FAR AWAY...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE THAT ORGANIZED. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THAT
AREA.
HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS...MAINLY TO UPDATE THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN CONCERN WITH 18Z TAF SET INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP
CONVECTION. MIDDAY SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THEM. THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD NOT MOVE
MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THEM. THUS...AM THINKING THAT ONLY KSPI/KDEC/KCMI MAY SEE A
THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCTS MENTION AT THESE SITES. ANY THUNDER NEAR THE TAF
SITES SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT DO NOT THINK IT
WILL GET AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS MORNING...DUE TO HIGHER
RANGES BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIR MASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 171512
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1012 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED...WITH JUST A BIT OF HAZE
LINGERING NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS IS
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
BROAD POOL OF DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT TOO
FAR AWAY...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE THAT ORGANIZED. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THAT
AREA.
HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS...MAINLY TO UPDATE THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT PIA AND BMI...LOCALLY
DENSE ALONG I-72 AT SPI...DEC AND CMI WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS...TO OCCUR UNTIL 13Z/8 AM WITH FOG LIFTING BEFORE
14Z/9 AM. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 3-5K FT TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
25K FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY AND BE CLOSEST IMPACT
TO SPI AND DEC AIRPORTS WHERE VCSH. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. COULD BE PATCHY
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED. WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING WSW 5-7 KTS BY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING LIGHT
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIR MASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 171145
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT PIA AND BMI...LOCALLY
DENSE ALONG I-72 AT SPI...DEC AND CMI WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS...TO OCCUR UNTIL 13Z/8 AM WITH FOG LIFTING BEFORE
14Z/9 AM. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 3-5K FT TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTEROON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
25K FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY AND BE CLOSEST IMPACT
TO SPI AND DEC AIRPORTS WHERE VCSH. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. COULD BE PATCHY
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED. WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING WSW 5-7 KTS BY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING LIGHT
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 170752
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND CMI IS
ALREADY AT 4SM. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE AND AM EXPECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES TO HAVE MVFR VIS STARTING AT 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS MVFR VIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE AND THEN ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE TEMPO VIS DOWN TO IFR OF
1-2SM. AFTER SUNRISE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY VIS ISSUES REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE
THE ONLY CLOUD AROUND OVERNIGHT. THEN CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING AT AROUND 4-5KFT AND THEN DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY TOMORROW...LESS THAN 10KTS. THEN LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 170450
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. HOWEVER...SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS BLOWING
OFF CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. SO WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
UPDATE WILL BE COMING SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND CMI IS
ALREADY AT 4SM. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE AND AM EXPECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES TO HAVE MVFR VIS STARTING AT 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS MVFR VIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE AND THEN ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE TEMPO VIS DOWN TO IFR OF
1-2SM. AFTER SUNRISE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY VIS ISSUES REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE
THE ONLY CLOUD AROUND OVERNIGHT. THEN CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING AT AROUND 4-5KFT AND THEN DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY TOMORROW...LESS THAN 10KTS. THEN LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE TO ITS NORTH...READINGS WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S. NOT A REAL GREAT PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY SO IT WILL BE
A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GETTING THE DRIER AIR MASS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME PATCHY
FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
MODELS DEPICTING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SE ACRS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL SIMULATIONS
INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS STORMS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING FURTHER
NORTH.
MODELS INDICATING BOTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWARD
ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACRS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NOTED ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AND THEN TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACRS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUID HAS HAD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME.
STRONGER 500 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT OUR AREA STILL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD PUT US IN LINE...AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS...FOR SEEING THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...AFFECTING PARTS
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
FAR OUT...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH...FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE REAL PUSH OF HOT AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 170201
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. HOWEVER...SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS BLOWING
OFF CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. SO WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
UPDATE WILL BE COMING SHORTLY.
AUTEN
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DIURNAL CU DIMINISHES
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM MORNING PCPN...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. MVFR VIS OF AROUND 3SM SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE A
TEMPO OF 1SM BR FOR ALL SITES. THEN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES IN THE
MORNING SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE AREA AT ALL
SITES. DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN BECOME LIGHT...THEN WESTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW.
AUTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE TO ITS NORTH...READINGS WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S. NOT A REAL GREAT PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY SO IT WILL BE
A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GETTING THE DRIER AIR MASS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME PATCHY
FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
MODELS DEPICTING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SE ACRS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL SIMULATIONS
INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS STORMS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING FURTHER
NORTH.
MODELS INDICATING BOTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWARD
ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACRS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NOTED ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AND THEN TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACRS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUID HAS HAD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME.
STRONGER 500 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT OUR AREA STILL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD PUT US IN LINE...AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS...FOR SEEING THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...AFFECTING PARTS
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
FAR OUT...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH...FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE REAL PUSH OF HOT AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 162337
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE TO ITS NORTH...READINGS WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S. NOT A REAL GREAT PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY SO IT WILL BE
A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GETTING THE DRIER AIR MASS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME PATCHY
FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
MODELS DEPICTING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SE ACRS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL SIMULATIONS
INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS STORMS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING FURTHER
NORTH.
MODELS INDICATING BOTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWARD
ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACRS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NOTED ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AND THEN TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACRS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUID HAS HAD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME.
STRONGER 500 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT OUR AREA STILL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD PUT US IN LINE...AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS...FOR SEEING THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...AFFECTING PARTS
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
FAR OUT...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH...FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE REAL PUSH OF HOT AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DIURNAL CU DIMINISHES
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM MORNING PCPN...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. MVFR VIS OF AROUND 3SM SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE A
TEMPO OF 1SM BR FOR ALL SITES. THEN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES IN THE
MORNING SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE AREA AT ALL
SITES. DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN BECOME LIGHT...THEN WESTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 161925
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
225 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE TO ITS NORTH...READINGS WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S. NOT A REAL GREAT PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY SO IT WILL BE
A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GETTING THE DRIER AIR MASS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME PATCHY
FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
MODELS DEPICTING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SE ACRS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL SIMULATIONS
INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS STORMS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING FURTHER
NORTH.
MODELS INDICATING BOTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LONGER RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWARD
ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACRS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NOTED ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AND THEN TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACRS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUID HAS HAD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME.
STRONGER 500 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT OUR AREA STILL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD PUT US IN LINE...AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS...FOR SEEING THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...AFFECTING PARTS
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
FAR OUT...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH...FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE REAL PUSH OF HOT AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO VFR RANGE...WHILE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH
00Z. THIS EVENING EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS GO CALM
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS IL. WITH WET GROUND
FROM LAST NIGHTS RAIN AND ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TODAY TO PREVENT A
GOOD MIX-OUT OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL THERE`S A GOOD SHOT
AT FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. VSBYS COULD GET AS LOW AS 1SM WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE. FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 161748
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
15Z SURFACE MAP PLACED A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
KANSAS CITY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A HUMID
UPPER 60S DEWPOINT AIRMASS RESIDED OVER CENTRAL IL. FARTHER
SOUTH...A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONGER 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WAS PRODUCING A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED ALONG I-70. TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
E/SE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
EXITING THE SE CWA BY 20Z. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD THROUGH 18Z...THEN REDUCING TO CHANCE SOUTH OF I-70
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE WHERE MORE AFTERNOON
SUN BREAKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO VFR RANGE...WHILE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH
00Z. THIS EVENING EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS GO CALM
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS IL. WITH WET GROUND
FROM LAST NIGHTS RAIN AND ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TODAY TO PREVENT A
GOOD MIX-OUT OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL THERES A GOOD SHOT
AT FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. VSBYS COULD GET AS LOW AS 1SM WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE. FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT HAS NOW PUSHED
INTO INDIANA AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. 07Z/2 AM RADAR MOSAIC AND
LOCAL OBS SHOW ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE RE-DEVELOPMENT NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND 4 KM HRRR
INSIST THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A
30-35 KT LLJ ACROSS MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN
TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN
LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING...AS IR SATELLITE SHOWS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DUE TO RATHER
WEAK LLJ AND AN ALREADY WORKED OVER AIRMASS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS UNLIKELY. INSTEAD...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. WILL THEREFORE CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-72 THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH BOUNDARY SAGGING TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER...ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. LULL
IN THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING SHORT-WAVES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER WAVES...WITH ONE
TRACKING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER SLIDING BY TO
THE S/SW. STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
MAINLY BE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE KILX CWA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH COULD BE IMPACTED BY
AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA ACCORDINGLY.
UPPER WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING
TO CONVERGE ON MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE 591DM 500MB HEIGHT LINE COMING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...GFS TRIGGERS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS IT EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. THINK GFS
IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS THIS FEATURE IS
COMPLETELY ABSENT ON THE ECMWF. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...EXACT DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE POP FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS IS
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER
WITH THE RIDGE AND FEATURES CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL FLATTEN RIDGE AND BRING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KILX 161538
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1038 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
15Z SURFACE MAP PLACED A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO
KANSAS CITY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A HUMID
UPPER 60S DEWPOINT AIRMASS RESIDED OVER CENTRAL IL. FARTHER
SOUTH...A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONGER 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WAS PRODUCING A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED ALONG I-70. TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
E/SE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
EXITING THE SE CWA BY 20Z. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD THROUGH 18Z...THEN REDUCING TO CHANCE SOUTH OF I-70
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE WHERE MORE AFTERNOON
SUN BREAKS THROUGH.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CARRIED VCSH ACROSS THE I-72 TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO
GROUPS OF SHOWERS LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES IF MODERATE
SHOWERS OCCUR. CARRIED VCSH AT NORTHERN TAF SITES OF PIA AND BMI
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE VCTS ALONG I-72 FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT MORE INTO SE IL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI
INTO CENTRAL IA SHIFTS WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. BROKEN CEILINGS OF 4-7K FT TO OCCUR TODAY
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET AND CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT OVER IA SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE IL RIVER/PIA. WSW WINDS 6-12 KTS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT PIA AND BMI WITH
SOME FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM
09Z-12Z MON. VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALONG I-72.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT HAS NOW PUSHED
INTO INDIANA AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. 07Z/2 AM RADAR MOSAIC AND
LOCAL OBS SHOW ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE RE-DEVELOPMENT NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND 4 KM HRRR
INSIST THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A
30-35 KT LLJ ACROSS MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN
TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN
LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING...AS IR SATELLITE SHOWS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DUE TO RATHER
WEAK LLJ AND AN ALREADY WORKED OVER AIRMASS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS UNLIKELY. INSTEAD...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. WILL THEREFORE CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-72 THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH BOUNDARY SAGGING TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER...ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. LULL
IN THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING SHORT-WAVES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER WAVES...WITH ONE
TRACKING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER SLIDING BY TO
THE S/SW. STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
MAINLY BE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE KILX CWA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH COULD BE IMPACTED BY
AN MCS TRACKING OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA ACCORDINGLY.
UPPER WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONCERNING
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING
TO CONVERGE ON MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE 591DM 500MB HEIGHT LINE COMING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...GFS TRIGGERS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS IT EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. THINK GFS
IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS THIS FEATURE IS
COMPLETELY ABSENT ON THE ECMWF. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...EXACT DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE POP FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS IS
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER
WITH THE RIDGE AND FEATURES CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL FLATTEN RIDGE AND BRING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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