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000
FXUS63 KILX 282110
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, as
35-40 knot winds around 3000 feet (per radar wind profile) get mixed
down to the surface. This has helped erode much of the snow cover,
with visible satellite imagery showing much of the remaining snow in
areas from Rushville to Jacksonville southeast to Effingham.
Temperatures have reached the upper 30s over most of the forecast
area with some 40s across the far southwest as the snow disappears.

Mid and high clouds continue to stream southeast along the warm
frontal boundary, which was stretching from northwest Iowa across
northern Illinois and central Indiana. Will continue to see periods
of clouds through the night over our area. Despite winds staying up
during the night, have added some patchy fog to the forecast for
tonight due to the snow melt, as forecast soundings are showing a
good inversion around 2000 feet to trap the moisture in place.
Temperatures expected to fall only modestly this evening and then
level off most of the night, as south-southwest low level jet around
925 mb starts to ramp up. Consequently, lows should remain above
freezing.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Saturday will see another round of gusty south winds bringing warmer
air into the region. 850mb temps are projected to climb into the
12-14C range, which would support highs well into the 50s in dry
mixing conditions. The increasing moisture could lead to increasing
cloudiness, which would temper how warm the surface temps would
climb. The better chances of enhanced lift in the strong waa flows
looks to be in the southeastern half of our forecast area, where
warm frontogenesis will be a bit more focused. With added lift in
that area, will increase cloud cover in the SE areas, with less
clouds NW toward GBG. SE areas may even see a few sprinkles at
times, which the NAM and GFS are suggesting with their output of QPF
on Saturday. Did not introduce any precip with this update, but did
bump up highs a couple degrees above guidance in most areas, with
less increase in the cloudier ESE areas. Highs should reach the mid
50 in most areas, with upper 50s in areas with less clouds.

A strong cold front still looks on track for Sunday, with decent
agreement among the models on frontal passage Sunday afternoon. The
increasing SW low level jet ahead of the front across SE IL will aid
the lift in the pre-frontal circulation, triggering scattered
showers mainly east of I-55, especially in the afternoon. High temps
will likely occur before Noon in the NW half of the area, with
strong NW winds behind the front bringing a sharp cool down the
remainder of the day. Mid-day highs will range from the upper 40s
near GBG to the low-mid 60s near LWV. The 1040mb Canadian high will
blast into IL through Sunday night, pushing temps below freezing by
Monday morning. There is some question to if the precipitation will
continue fall after the temps fall below freezing. With a lack of
ice crystals above the shallow surface moisture, any continued
precipitation would most likely reach the ground as freezing
rain/drizzle instead of snow. That could cause some problems for the
morning commute on Monday, mainly along and just south of the I-70
corridor.

The continued surge of cold air on Monday will keep highs mainly in
the 20s, with some low 30s S of I-70. Some light freezing rain or
rain will be possible Monday morning S of I-70, with diminishing
chances in the afternoon as the front sags away to the SE.

The cold surface high will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday, allowing a quick return of southerly winds by Tuesday
afternoon. The warming winds should combine with plenty of sunshine
to help most areas climb above freezing. Wednesday could see
increasing mid and high clouds, but highs are still forecast to
reach the upper 30s north of Peoria and low to mid 40s south.

Differences remain the extended forecast for Wed night through
Friday, but not as dramatic as the last few days.
The GFS continues to develop low pressure in the south central
Plains and moving the low across IL in the Wed-Thur time frame.
However, now the ECMWF is showing a shortwave in the general
vicinity, triggering showers about 18-24 hours after the GFS. The
Canadian GEM is also indicating that shortwave in line with the
ECMWF timing. We have not altered the precip forecast much, with
slight chances Wed night in the west, and chance PoPs in most areas
Thur and Thur night. Slight chances were held into Friday SE of the
IL river. Based on temp profiles, we went with snow chances at night
and rain during the day for now, but this will need refining future
model runs arrive.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Gusty southerly winds to around 20-25 knots will continue for a
few more hours, before the gusts start to subside with sunset.
Have added mention of LLWS at all TAF sites, as southwesterly jet
of 40-45 knots starts to move in mid to late evening, persisting
much of the night.

Have kept most of the TAF sites VFR for now. Main concern will be
near KSPI, which will be melting some snow today. Most of the
models are showing a good inversion around 2000 feet developing
tonight, which would trap this additional moisture in place. Have
added some MVFR ceilings here for later tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart









000
FXUS63 KILX 282110
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Southerly winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, as
35-40 knot winds around 3000 feet (per radar wind profile) get mixed
down to the surface. This has helped erode much of the snow cover,
with visible satellite imagery showing much of the remaining snow in
areas from Rushville to Jacksonville southeast to Effingham.
Temperatures have reached the upper 30s over most of the forecast
area with some 40s across the far southwest as the snow disappears.

Mid and high clouds continue to stream southeast along the warm
frontal boundary, which was stretching from northwest Iowa across
northern Illinois and central Indiana. Will continue to see periods
of clouds through the night over our area. Despite winds staying up
during the night, have added some patchy fog to the forecast for
tonight due to the snow melt, as forecast soundings are showing a
good inversion around 2000 feet to trap the moisture in place.
Temperatures expected to fall only modestly this evening and then
level off most of the night, as south-southwest low level jet around
925 mb starts to ramp up. Consequently, lows should remain above
freezing.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Saturday will see another round of gusty south winds bringing warmer
air into the region. 850mb temps are projected to climb into the
12-14C range, which would support highs well into the 50s in dry
mixing conditions. The increasing moisture could lead to increasing
cloudiness, which would temper how warm the surface temps would
climb. The better chances of enhanced lift in the strong waa flows
looks to be in the southeastern half of our forecast area, where
warm frontogenesis will be a bit more focused. With added lift in
that area, will increase cloud cover in the SE areas, with less
clouds NW toward GBG. SE areas may even see a few sprinkles at
times, which the NAM and GFS are suggesting with their output of QPF
on Saturday. Did not introduce any precip with this update, but did
bump up highs a couple degrees above guidance in most areas, with
less increase in the cloudier ESE areas. Highs should reach the mid
50 in most areas, with upper 50s in areas with less clouds.

A strong cold front still looks on track for Sunday, with decent
agreement among the models on frontal passage Sunday afternoon. The
increasing SW low level jet ahead of the front across SE IL will aid
the lift in the pre-frontal circulation, triggering scattered
showers mainly east of I-55, especially in the afternoon. High temps
will likely occur before Noon in the NW half of the area, with
strong NW winds behind the front bringing a sharp cool down the
remainder of the day. Mid-day highs will range from the upper 40s
near GBG to the low-mid 60s near LWV. The 1040mb Canadian high will
blast into IL through Sunday night, pushing temps below freezing by
Monday morning. There is some question to if the precipitation will
continue fall after the temps fall below freezing. With a lack of
ice crystals above the shallow surface moisture, any continued
precipitation would most likely reach the ground as freezing
rain/drizzle instead of snow. That could cause some problems for the
morning commute on Monday, mainly along and just south of the I-70
corridor.

The continued surge of cold air on Monday will keep highs mainly in
the 20s, with some low 30s S of I-70. Some light freezing rain or
rain will be possible Monday morning S of I-70, with diminishing
chances in the afternoon as the front sags away to the SE.

The cold surface high will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday, allowing a quick return of southerly winds by Tuesday
afternoon. The warming winds should combine with plenty of sunshine
to help most areas climb above freezing. Wednesday could see
increasing mid and high clouds, but highs are still forecast to
reach the upper 30s north of Peoria and low to mid 40s south.

Differences remain the extended forecast for Wed night through
Friday, but not as dramatic as the last few days.
The GFS continues to develop low pressure in the south central
Plains and moving the low across IL in the Wed-Thur time frame.
However, now the ECMWF is showing a shortwave in the general
vicinity, triggering showers about 18-24 hours after the GFS. The
Canadian GEM is also indicating that shortwave in line with the
ECMWF timing. We have not altered the precip forecast much, with
slight chances Wed night in the west, and chance PoPs in most areas
Thur and Thur night. Slight chances were held into Friday SE of the
IL river. Based on temp profiles, we went with snow chances at night
and rain during the day for now, but this will need refining future
model runs arrive.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Gusty southerly winds to around 20-25 knots will continue for a
few more hours, before the gusts start to subside with sunset.
Have added mention of LLWS at all TAF sites, as southwesterly jet
of 40-45 knots starts to move in mid to late evening, persisting
much of the night.

Have kept most of the TAF sites VFR for now. Main concern will be
near KSPI, which will be melting some snow today. Most of the
models are showing a good inversion around 2000 feet developing
tonight, which would trap this additional moisture in place. Have
added some MVFR ceilings here for later tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 281733
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1133 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Earlier altocumulus deck continues to scrape the northeast CWA, but
a larger area of mid and high clouds has been streaming southeast
into the forecast area. Have sent some updates to increase the
cloud cover for today to reflect this particular cloud deck.
Have also made some adjustments to the hourly temperature trends
for this morning as they were a couple degrees too warm, but think
the overall highs are still OK for now as southerly winds have
been picking up quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dew points increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder air mass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold air mass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Gusty southerly winds to around 20-25 knots will continue for a
few more hours, before the gusts start to subside with sunset.
Have added mention of LLWS at all TAF sites, as southwesterly jet
of 40-45 knots starts to move in mid to late evening, persisting
much of the night.

Have kept most of the TAF sites VFR for now. Main concern will be
near KSPI, which will be melting some snow today. Most of the
models are showing a good inversion around 2000 feet developing
tonight, which would trap this additional moisture in place. Have
added some MVFR ceilings here for later tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 281733
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1133 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Earlier altocumulus deck continues to scrape the northeast CWA, but
a larger area of mid and high clouds has been streaming southeast
into the forecast area. Have sent some updates to increase the
cloud cover for today to reflect this particular cloud deck.
Have also made some adjustments to the hourly temperature trends
for this morning as they were a couple degrees too warm, but think
the overall highs are still OK for now as southerly winds have
been picking up quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dew points increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder air mass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold air mass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Gusty southerly winds to around 20-25 knots will continue for a
few more hours, before the gusts start to subside with sunset.
Have added mention of LLWS at all TAF sites, as southwesterly jet
of 40-45 knots starts to move in mid to late evening, persisting
much of the night.

Have kept most of the TAF sites VFR for now. Main concern will be
near KSPI, which will be melting some snow today. Most of the
models are showing a good inversion around 2000 feet developing
tonight, which would trap this additional moisture in place. Have
added some MVFR ceilings here for later tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 281534
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
934 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Earlier altocumulus deck continues to scrape the northeast CWA, but
a larger area of mid and high clouds has been streaming southeast
into the forecast area. Have sent some updates to increase the
cloud cover for today to reflect this particular cloud deck.
Have also made some adjustments to the hourly temperature trends
for this morning as they were a couple degrees too warm, but think
the overall highs are still OK for now as southerly winds have
been picking up quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dew points increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder air mass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold air mass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken mid clouds around 12kft will continue through the day at
all sites. Clouds will then rise a little during the evening and
become broken, along with some lower clouds around 5kft. Based on
model RH fields, looks like mid clouds will dissipate, but 5kft
clouds could remain around remainder of the night. Winds will be
southerly through the period, with speeds of around 12kts. During
the day, gust could reach up to 20-22kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 281534
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
934 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Earlier altocumulus deck continues to scrape the northeast CWA, but
a larger area of mid and high clouds has been streaming southeast
into the forecast area. Have sent some updates to increase the
cloud cover for today to reflect this particular cloud deck.
Have also made some adjustments to the hourly temperature trends
for this morning as they were a couple degrees too warm, but think
the overall highs are still OK for now as southerly winds have
been picking up quite a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dew points increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder air mass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold air mass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken mid clouds around 12kft will continue through the day at
all sites. Clouds will then rise a little during the evening and
become broken, along with some lower clouds around 5kft. Based on
model RH fields, looks like mid clouds will dissipate, but 5kft
clouds could remain around remainder of the night. Winds will be
southerly through the period, with speeds of around 12kts. During
the day, gust could reach up to 20-22kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 281134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dewpoints increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder airmass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold airmass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken mid clouds around 12kft will continue through the day at
all sites. Clouds will then rise a little during the evening and
become broken, along with some lower clouds around 5kft. Based on
model RH fields, looks like mid clouds will dissipate, but 5kft
clouds could remain around remainder of the night. Winds will be
southerly through the period, with speeds of around 12kts. During
the day, gust could reach up to 20-22kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 281134
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dewpoints increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder airmass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold airmass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken mid clouds around 12kft will continue through the day at
all sites. Clouds will then rise a little during the evening and
become broken, along with some lower clouds around 5kft. Based on
model RH fields, looks like mid clouds will dissipate, but 5kft
clouds could remain around remainder of the night. Winds will be
southerly through the period, with speeds of around 12kts. During
the day, gust could reach up to 20-22kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 280907
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dewpoints increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder airmass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold airmass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours across
central IL. Lcl MVFR vsby possible until around 08Z from
K1H2-KRSV southward. Cloud cover BKN070-090 to spread across area
remainder of the night inhibiting fog formation. Cloud cover
dissipating after 13Z. Winds light and variable overnight
increasing after 12Z to become S11-17kts with gusts up to 25 kts
through afternoon. Wind gusts decreasing after 00z but steady S
winds 10-12 kts continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 280907
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Band of mid-level cloudiness associated with an approaching 850mb
warm front currently blankets central and southeast Illinois:
however, these clouds are expected to shift slowly northeastward
later this morning.  Forecast soundings show skies clearing from
southwest to northeast across the area by midday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected across the board this afternoon.  As
surface high pressure shifts east of the region, strong S/SE winds
will develop.  Due to the increasing sunshine and southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound quite nicely from very cold overnight
lows in the single digits and teens.  Have gone a couple of
degrees above guidance numbers, resulting in afternoon highs in
the upper 30s and lower 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Continued strong southerly flow will bring even warmer air into the
region on Saturday: however, warming trend may be tempered by
increasing cloudiness.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fetch of
low-level moisture developing from the western Gulf of Mexico into
Illinois on Saturday, with surface dewpoints increasing from the
lower 30s early in the day to well into the 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings and model RH profiles show significant moistening
within the surface-850mb layer, suggesting the development of a low
overcast.  Despite the cloudy skies, strong WAA will still push high
temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.

Strong cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, with
excellent model agreement concerning FROPA during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the depth of the shallow surface-based moist
layer increases just enough to support a low chance PoP for light
rain showers, mainly east of the I-55 corridor during the
afternoon.  High temperatures will be achieved by around midday,
ranging from the upper 40s northwest of the Illinois River to the
lower 60s along/south of I-70.  After that, gusty northwesterly
winds will usher much colder air into the region, resulting in temps
dropping into the 30s and 40s by mid to late afternoon across all
but the far SE KILX CWA.

Models continue to show minor differences with their QPF fields
Sunday night, with the GEM being the most aggressive with developing
light precip north of the front into the colder airmass overnight.
With no clear upper support seen for post-frontal precip that far
north, have rejected this solution in favor of the much further south
GFS.  As a result, will carry low chance PoPs along/southeast of a
Champaign to Taylorville line Sunday evening, then only along/south
of I-70 after midnight.  As the cold airmass sinks southward, precip
type may become an issue late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show a shallow moist layer, with no
ice crystals present.  With surface temperatures dropping to near or
just below freezing, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur
along/south of I-70.  Will need to keep an eye on this situation
over the next couple of model runs, as some parts of southeast
Illinois could experience a light glaze of ice and some potentially
slick driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.  Elsewhere
around central Illinois, dry but very cold weather will be on tap
with highs mainly in the 20s.

After a brief shot of very cold air on Monday, temperatures will
moderate as a zonal upper flow pattern establishes itself across the
CONUS next week.  This will help temps recover into the 30s on
Tuesday, then well into the 30s and perhaps the lower 40s by
Wednesday.  Big question in the latter half of the extended
continues to be how models handle closed upper low over the
central Pacific.  00z Nov 28 models continue to be in poor
agreement, although a consensus of a slower eastward ejection
seems to be developing.  Prior runs of the GFS had shown the low
weakening, then shearing eastward across the central U.S. by
Wednesday, while the ECMWF/GEM kept it further west.  Latest GFS
has slowed, but still features a lead short-wave that produces
light precip across Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows no lead wave, but instead high pressure
across the area at that time.  It delays the arrival of the
weakening central Pacific wave until Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, will make very few changes to the going forecast
due to model uncertainty.  Will maintain chance PoPs on Thursday,
but these will likely need to be pushed back to Thursday night or
even Friday if current trends continue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours across
central IL. Lcl MVFR vsby possible until around 08Z from
K1H2-KRSV southward. Cloud cover BKN070-090 to spread across area
remainder of the night inhibiting fog formation. Cloud cover
dissipating after 13Z. Winds light and variable overnight
increasing after 12Z to become S11-17kts with gusts up to 25 kts
through afternoon. Wind gusts decreasing after 00z but steady S
winds 10-12 kts continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 280517
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1117 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Skies have become mostly clear across central Illinois this
evening allowing temperatures to drop rapidly. Current
temperatures are mainly in the teens, with 20s near the Indiana
border where skies have taken longer to clear. Surface high
pressure will drift east across the region late this evening
causing winds to become light and variable, while cloud cover will
move in from the west. The increase in cloud cover will cause
temperatures to stop falling or even increase gradually by early
morning. Winds will be increasing early in the morning as well due
to the weather system bringing in the cloud cover. Have sent
updates for tonight`s temperature and cloud cover trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours across
central IL. Lcl MVFR vsby possible until around 08Z from
K1H2-KRSV southward. Cloud cover BKN070-090 to spread across area
remainder of the night inhibiting fog formation. Cloud cover
dissipating after 13Z. Winds light and variable overnight
increasing after 12Z to become S11-17kts with gusts up to 25 kts
through afternoon. Wind gusts decreasing after 00z but steady S
winds 10-12 kts continuing.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 280517
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1117 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Skies have become mostly clear across central Illinois this
evening allowing temperatures to drop rapidly. Current
temperatures are mainly in the teens, with 20s near the Indiana
border where skies have taken longer to clear. Surface high
pressure will drift east across the region late this evening
causing winds to become light and variable, while cloud cover will
move in from the west. The increase in cloud cover will cause
temperatures to stop falling or even increase gradually by early
morning. Winds will be increasing early in the morning as well due
to the weather system bringing in the cloud cover. Have sent
updates for tonight`s temperature and cloud cover trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours across
central IL. Lcl MVFR vsby possible until around 08Z from
K1H2-KRSV southward. Cloud cover BKN070-090 to spread across area
remainder of the night inhibiting fog formation. Cloud cover
dissipating after 13Z. Winds light and variable overnight
increasing after 12Z to become S11-17kts with gusts up to 25 kts
through afternoon. Wind gusts decreasing after 00z but steady S
winds 10-12 kts continuing.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 280250
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
850 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Skies have become mostly clear across central Illinois this
evening allowing temperatures to drop rapidly. Current
temperatures are mainly in the teens, with 20s near the Indiana
border where skies have taken longer to clear. Surface high
pressure will drift east across the region late this evening
causing winds to become light and variable, while cloud cover will
move in from the west. The increase in cloud cover will cause
temperatures to stop falling or even increase gradually by early
morning. Winds will be increasing early in the morning as well due
to the weather system bringing in the cloud cover. Have sent
updates for tonight`s temperature and cloud cover trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

An area of predominantly MVFR cigs with sct -shsn occasionally
bringing IFR-MVFR vsby will continue to affect areas east of
K1H2-KBMI until around 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for
the next 24 hours. Winds NW up to 10 kts until 04Z, becoming
light and variable overnight as surface high pressure crosses the
region. Winds increasing after 12Z becoming S10-16kts with gusts
up to 25 kts through afternoon as a clipper system moves by to the
north.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 272332
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

An area of predominantly MVFR cigs with sct -shsn occasionally
bringing IFR-MVFR vsby will continue to affect areas east of
K1H2-KBMI until around 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for
the next 24 hours. Winds NW up to 10 kts until 04Z, becoming
light and variable overnight as surface high pressure crosses the
region. Winds increasing after 12Z becoming S10-16kts with gusts
up to 25 kts through afternoon as a clipper system moves by to the
north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 272332
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

An area of predominantly MVFR cigs with sct -shsn occasionally
bringing IFR-MVFR vsby will continue to affect areas east of
K1H2-KBMI until around 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for
the next 24 hours. Winds NW up to 10 kts until 04Z, becoming
light and variable overnight as surface high pressure crosses the
region. Winds increasing after 12Z becoming S10-16kts with gusts
up to 25 kts through afternoon as a clipper system moves by to the
north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 272101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow showers has been reducing visibilities to
1 to 2 miles as it moves southeast. Currently moving through KDEC
and may clip KCMI over the next hour or two, although it will
largely track south of there. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
prevail into mid afternoon, although an area of clearing is not
too far west of KPIA and will be spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Later on in the forecast period, northwest winds to
turn more southeast overnight, following the passage of an area of
high pressure. Strong low level winds will arrive on Friday
morning and mix down toward the surface, producing some gusts up
to 15-20 knots by mid to late morning. Some higher clouds around
8000 feet or so will move through overnight and exit Friday
morning, as a clipper system passes to our north.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 272101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow and flurries, which moved in from the Quad
Cities area around mid morning, has held together relatively well
and was now over by Champaign. Have had a tenth or two of
accumulation accompany this feature in the heavier snow bands, which
have reduced visibility down to a mile at times. While remaining
mostly cloudy during the day, the clouds are now breaking up
northwest of the Illinois River, although temperatures there were
only in the lower 20s as stronger cold-air advection spreads in from
the northwest.

Latest surface map shows high pressure axis extending north-south
along the Mississippi Valley. This will slowly settle southeast
across the Midwest tonight, as the next clipper system quickly moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. The snow from this feature will
remain well to our north, but a band of mid-level clouds will
quickly be moving in later this evening. Low temperatures will
likely be set this evening before the arrival of the clouds, with
temperatures steady or drifting upward overnight as winds start to
turn to the southeast. Teens will be widespread this evening,
possibly as low as 10 degrees near Galesburg.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper trough will translate east of Illinois for Friday, leaving
zonal flow across the Plains and into Illinois through the weekend.
That pattern change will allow a return flow of warm air and
increasing dewpoints from Friday through Sunday. Highs on Friday may
be tempered a few degrees down due to some lingering snow cover in a
corridor from Rushville to Effingham, and have trimmed a couple
degrees from highs in that area. Periodic mid and high clouds across
the north on Friday may also help to keep highs down slightly,
especially with such a cold start to the day.

Saturday will see low clouds developing in the east and south due to
lift from increasing warm frontogenesis in the 850 mb layer. Despite
the cloud cover, surface temps should be noticeably warmer as highs
reach the low to mid 50s. The GFS even triggers a few showers during
the afternoon, but confidence is low that any measurable rain will
occur. Sunday will see a continued increase in low clouds with the
arrival of a cold front from the NW. Some added energy from an
intensifying 300mb jet max will increase lift ahead of the front and
a few showers will possible in our southeastern counties. Rain
chances will be mainly confined to areas SE of a line from Effingham
to Danville, but sprinkles could extend as far west as Peoria to
Jacksonville.

The front is forecast to progress into the Ohio River Valley by
Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling southward early next
week. Any lingering rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning
across our SE counties could transition to light snow due to
deepening of the cold pool. No snow accumulation is expected
however.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
under a high pressure ridge. Major model differences are still
present beyond that with respect to the evolution of a closed low
off the West Coast of California. The GFS continues to progress
that wave across the Rockies, triggering surface cyclogenesis
across the Plains on Wednesday. It then progresses that deepening
low into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday, dragging a cold front
across IL Thursday night. Pre-frontal showers are forecast as
early as Wed night and lingering through Thurs night. The ECMWF
takes the low and gradually absorbs it into a stronger low over
the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough providing cool/dry
weather to Illinois on Wednesday-Thursday. The Canadian GEM shows
indications of primarily keeping the low off the coast, or at
least keeping a long wave trough along the west coast through the
end of the week, providing a dry scenario for IL during that time.
The SuperBlend was biased by the strong GFS precip signal, but
through collaboration with surrounding offices, we lowered precip
chances to the slight category Wed night and Thurs due to so much
uncertainty.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow showers has been reducing visibilities to
1 to 2 miles as it moves southeast. Currently moving through KDEC
and may clip KCMI over the next hour or two, although it will
largely track south of there. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
prevail into mid afternoon, although an area of clearing is not
too far west of KPIA and will be spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Later on in the forecast period, northwest winds to
turn more southeast overnight, following the passage of an area of
high pressure. Strong low level winds will arrive on Friday
morning and mix down toward the surface, producing some gusts up
to 15-20 knots by mid to late morning. Some higher clouds around
8000 feet or so will move through overnight and exit Friday
morning, as a clipper system passes to our north.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 271723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Have updated the forecast to significantly ramp up the PoP`s for
the next few hours from about Decatur northwest to Galesburg. An
area of light snow and flurries has been moving southeast out of
the Quad Cities. While significant accumulation is not
anticipated, the visibilities have been getting down to 1 to 2
miles at times which would imply more than just flurries, and
web cams around Peoria suggest a dusting of accumulation is
occurring in the heavier bands. The snow has been weakening as it
moves southeast through central Illinois, so have kept the
afternoon dry for now. Back edge of the cloud deck is along the
Illinois/Iowa border and slowly moving east, with the RAP guidance
continuing to indicate some gradual clearing from west to east
across our forecast area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dew points increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder air mass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder air mass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow showers has been reducing visibilities to
1 to 2 miles as it moves southeast. Currently moving through KDEC
and may clip KCMI over the next hour or two, although it will
largely track south of there. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
prevail into mid afternoon, although an area of clearing is not
too far west of KPIA and will be spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Later on in the forecast period, northwest winds to
turn more southeast overnight, following the passage of an area of
high pressure. Strong low level winds will arrive on Friday
morning and mix down toward the surface, producing some gusts up
to 15-20 knots by mid to late morning. Some higher clouds around
8000 feet or so will move through overnight and exit Friday
morning, as a clipper system passes to our north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 271723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Have updated the forecast to significantly ramp up the PoP`s for
the next few hours from about Decatur northwest to Galesburg. An
area of light snow and flurries has been moving southeast out of
the Quad Cities. While significant accumulation is not
anticipated, the visibilities have been getting down to 1 to 2
miles at times which would imply more than just flurries, and
web cams around Peoria suggest a dusting of accumulation is
occurring in the heavier bands. The snow has been weakening as it
moves southeast through central Illinois, so have kept the
afternoon dry for now. Back edge of the cloud deck is along the
Illinois/Iowa border and slowly moving east, with the RAP guidance
continuing to indicate some gradual clearing from west to east
across our forecast area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dew points increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder air mass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder air mass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Small area of light snow showers has been reducing visibilities to
1 to 2 miles as it moves southeast. Currently moving through KDEC
and may clip KCMI over the next hour or two, although it will
largely track south of there. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
prevail into mid afternoon, although an area of clearing is not
too far west of KPIA and will be spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Later on in the forecast period, northwest winds to
turn more southeast overnight, following the passage of an area of
high pressure. Strong low level winds will arrive on Friday
morning and mix down toward the surface, producing some gusts up
to 15-20 knots by mid to late morning. Some higher clouds around
8000 feet or so will move through overnight and exit Friday
morning, as a clipper system passes to our north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 271601
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Have updated the forecast to significantly ramp up the PoP`s for
the next few hours from about Decatur northwest to Galesburg. An
area of light snow and flurries has been moving southeast out of
the Quad Cities. While significant accumulation is not
anticipated, the visibilities have been getting down to 1 to 2
miles at times which would imply more than just flurries, and
web cams around Peoria suggest a dusting of accumulation is
occurring in the heavier bands. The snow has been weakening as it
moves southeast through central Illinois, so have kept the
afternoon dry for now. Back edge of the cloud deck is along the
Illinois/Iowa border and slowly moving east, with the RAP guidance
continuing to indicate some gradual clearing from west to east
across our forecast area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dew points increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder air mass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder air mass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will quickly
degrade to MVFR this morning as a band of SC spreads in from the
northwest. Then, skies will scatter out this afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure begins to build into the area. However, mid/high
level VFR cigs will spread into the region tonight ahead of the
next weather disturbance. A period of 10-15 kt northwest winds
will exist to start the day, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible
into midday. Then, winds will trend light/variable as the ridge of
high pressure builds in for tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 271601
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Have updated the forecast to significantly ramp up the PoP`s for
the next few hours from about Decatur northwest to Galesburg. An
area of light snow and flurries has been moving southeast out of
the Quad Cities. While significant accumulation is not
anticipated, the visibilities have been getting down to 1 to 2
miles at times which would imply more than just flurries, and
web cams around Peoria suggest a dusting of accumulation is
occurring in the heavier bands. The snow has been weakening as it
moves southeast through central Illinois, so have kept the
afternoon dry for now. Back edge of the cloud deck is along the
Illinois/Iowa border and slowly moving east, with the RAP guidance
continuing to indicate some gradual clearing from west to east
across our forecast area this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dew points increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder air mass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder air mass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will quickly
degrade to MVFR this morning as a band of SC spreads in from the
northwest. Then, skies will scatter out this afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure begins to build into the area. However, mid/high
level VFR cigs will spread into the region tonight ahead of the
next weather disturbance. A period of 10-15 kt northwest winds
will exist to start the day, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible
into midday. Then, winds will trend light/variable as the ridge of
high pressure builds in for tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 271158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dewpoints increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder airmass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will quickly
degrade to MVFR this morning as a band of SC spreads in from the
northwest. Then, skies will scatter out this afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure begins to build into the area. However, mid/high
level VFR cigs will spread into the region tonight ahead of the
next weather disturbance. A period of 10-15 kt northwest winds
will exist to start the day, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible
into midday. Then, winds will trend light/variable as the ridge of
high pressure builds in for tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 271158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dewpoints increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder airmass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions across the central Illinois terminals will quickly
degrade to MVFR this morning as a band of SC spreads in from the
northwest. Then, skies will scatter out this afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure begins to build into the area. However, mid/high
level VFR cigs will spread into the region tonight ahead of the
next weather disturbance. A period of 10-15 kt northwest winds
will exist to start the day, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible
into midday. Then, winds will trend light/variable as the ridge of
high pressure builds in for tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 270921
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

08z/2am surface analysis shows clipper system tracking southeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, while high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains.  Accumulating snow associated with the clipper has
ended, leaving behind mostly cloudy and cold conditions.  Main
short-term forecast challenge will be timing the clearing trend
later today.  Current IR satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing
the region, with the back edge evident across southeast Minnesota
into north-central Iowa.  Based solely on satellite timing tools,
clearing would arrive in the Illinois River Valley between 15z
and 17z.  However, with continued deep-layer northwesterly flow
and very cold air aloft, think clouds may tend to re-develop along
the back edge of the main cloud area, thus slowing the overall
eastward progression of the clearing.  Negative Cu-rule values
support this theory, as does the latest HRRR.  As a result, have
decided to go with an overcast morning across the board, followed
by a slow northwest to southeast clearing this afternoon.  Some
locations along/east of I-57 will likely remain cloudy through the
entire day.  Due to the cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds,
high temperatures will remain in the 20s across most of the area,
with a few lower 30s south of I-70.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

After chilly low temperatures in the teens tonight, a major
warming trend will get underway by the end of the week.  High
pressure will shift east of the region on Friday, allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop.  Despite partial sunshine and strong
WAA, warming trend will be mitigated by existing snow cover along
a Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line.  Have therefore
lowered highs across this area by 3-4 degrees, with readings
reaching the lower 40s.  Much warmer weather is expected
everywhere on Saturday as strong southerly flow continues.  Models
are showing a fetch of increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico northward into central Illinois, with
surface dewpoints increasing from the lower 30s early in the day
to well into the 40s to near 50 degrees late.  Forecast soundings
are showing saturation below 850mb, which suggests increasing
low-level cloudiness.  Have therefore gone with a mostly cloudy
forecast with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Sunday, although an approaching
cold front may trigger scattered showers across the central and
southern zones as the day progresses.  Front will drop into the Ohio
River Valley by Sunday night, with a colder airmass settling
southward early next week.  Model discrepancies still exist Sunday
night, with the ECMWF trying to develop some light precip
along/north of the boundary into the colder airmass.  Meanwhile, the
GFS keeps the light precip confined to areas along/south of the
front.  With no clear upper wave to support the post-frontal precip,
have opted to side with the GFS here, resulting in dry weather
across all but the far SE CWA where a few rain showers may linger.

After that, major model differences arise by the middle of next week
as all are in poor agreement concerning the evolution of a closed
upper low over the central Pacific.  00z Nov 27 GFS shows this
feature shearing eastward across the central CONUS, eventually
triggering overrunning precip across Illinois by
Wednesday/Thursday.  The ECMWF takes the low and gradually absorbs
it into a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream
trough providing cool/dry weather to Illinois on
Wednesday/Thursday.  Meanwhile, the GEM keeps the low off the coast
of California the entire time and also features a cool/dry forecast
for Illinois.  With so much uncertainty, decided to make very few
changes to the going forecast beyond Monday.  For now will maintain
dry weather through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OFF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS
RIDGING CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
THE CLEARING TO LAST ALL NIGHT SINCE SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE STILL
INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND 19Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 270601
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated the forecast to better reflect the current conditions with
the snow in central and southeast IL this evening. A weakening
clipper type low was just south of St. Louis at 01z, with an
associated upper level trough/vort max in west central IL. Bands
of snow, fairly narrow but potent, were pivoting around a shear
axis which was positioned between Springfield and Lincoln early
this evening. With the upper level energy continuing to slowly
shift to the east-southeast, this main band finally started
translating more southward the past hour or so. Reports have
indicated around 2 inches of snow with this band from Astoria
through Petersburg to Springfield - although based on radar
estimates, there are probably a few areas with around 3 inches
near the Sangamon River from west of Petersburg toward Schuyler
County.

Another snow band was rotating northeastward, ahead of the
shortwave trough, into southeast IL. Most areas with this band can
expect to get 1-2 inches of snow late this evening, with isolated
totals up to 3 inches.

Overnight, there could be a little lingering light snow from the
upstream deformation zone currently across eastern Iowa. However,
this is weakening and the surface pressure pattern should become
less cyclonic with time, so any snow that does occur will be quite
light and short lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OFF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS
RIDGING CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
THE CLEARING TO LAST ALL NIGHT SINCE SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE STILL
INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND 19Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...ALW







000
FXUS63 KILX 270601
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated the forecast to better reflect the current conditions with
the snow in central and southeast IL this evening. A weakening
clipper type low was just south of St. Louis at 01z, with an
associated upper level trough/vort max in west central IL. Bands
of snow, fairly narrow but potent, were pivoting around a shear
axis which was positioned between Springfield and Lincoln early
this evening. With the upper level energy continuing to slowly
shift to the east-southeast, this main band finally started
translating more southward the past hour or so. Reports have
indicated around 2 inches of snow with this band from Astoria
through Petersburg to Springfield - although based on radar
estimates, there are probably a few areas with around 3 inches
near the Sangamon River from west of Petersburg toward Schuyler
County.

Another snow band was rotating northeastward, ahead of the
shortwave trough, into southeast IL. Most areas with this band can
expect to get 1-2 inches of snow late this evening, with isolated
totals up to 3 inches.

Overnight, there could be a little lingering light snow from the
upstream deformation zone currently across eastern Iowa. However,
this is weakening and the surface pressure pattern should become
less cyclonic with time, so any snow that does occur will be quite
light and short lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OFF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS
RIDGING CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
THE CLEARING TO LAST ALL NIGHT SINCE SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE STILL
INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND 19Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 270215
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
815 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated the forecast to better reflect the current conditions with
the snow in central and southeast IL this evening. A weakening
clipper type low was just south of St. Louis at 01z, with an
associated upper level trough/vort max in west central IL. Bands
of snow, fairly narrow but potent, were pivoting around a shear
axis which was positioned between Springfield and Lincoln early
this evening. With the upper level energy continuing to slowly
shift to the east-southeast, this main band finally started
translating more southward the past hour or so. Reports have
indicated around 2 inches of snow with this band from Astoria
through Petersburg to Springfield - although based on radar
estimates, there are probably a few areas with around 3 inches
near the Sangamon River from west of Petersburg toward Schuyler
County.

Another snow band was rotating northeastward, ahead of the
shortwave trough, into southeast IL. Most areas with this band can
expect to get 1-2 inches of snow late this evening, with isolated
totals up to 3 inches.

Overnight, there could be a little lingering light snow from the
upstream deformation zone currently across eastern Iowa. However,
this is weakening and the surface pressure pattern should become
less cyclonic with time, so any snow that does occur will be quite
light and short lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Clipper system/low pressure center just south of KUIN will
continue to produce light snow and IFR conditions in west central
and parts of central IL through at least 03z - particularly at
KSPI. As the low weakens and scoots southeast into southern
Illinois during the evening, a brief period of freezing drizzle
may accompany the light snow before it dissipates.

There is a sharp cutoff in the snow and the low ceilings...mainly
along I-74...which includes KPIA, KBMI and KCMI. These locations
will have highly variable conditions with ceilings mainly in the
MVFR category, but with brief periods of VFR early this evening.

The GFS model wants to break up the clouds around or shortly after
daybreak Thursday. However, upstream observations and the presence
of moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere
should keep MVFR ceilings in place across all of central and
eastern IL through the morning and at least the early afternoon.
Could be some break in the clouds by late afternoon, but will
address that in future TAF issuances.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller







000
FXUS63 KILX 270215
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
815 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated the forecast to better reflect the current conditions with
the snow in central and southeast IL this evening. A weakening
clipper type low was just south of St. Louis at 01z, with an
associated upper level trough/vort max in west central IL. Bands
of snow, fairly narrow but potent, were pivoting around a shear
axis which was positioned between Springfield and Lincoln early
this evening. With the upper level energy continuing to slowly
shift to the east-southeast, this main band finally started
translating more southward the past hour or so. Reports have
indicated around 2 inches of snow with this band from Astoria
through Petersburg to Springfield - although based on radar
estimates, there are probably a few areas with around 3 inches
near the Sangamon River from west of Petersburg toward Schuyler
County.

Another snow band was rotating northeastward, ahead of the
shortwave trough, into southeast IL. Most areas with this band can
expect to get 1-2 inches of snow late this evening, with isolated
totals up to 3 inches.

Overnight, there could be a little lingering light snow from the
upstream deformation zone currently across eastern Iowa. However,
this is weakening and the surface pressure pattern should become
less cyclonic with time, so any snow that does occur will be quite
light and short lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Clipper system/low pressure center just south of KUIN will
continue to produce light snow and IFR conditions in west central
and parts of central IL through at least 03z - particularly at
KSPI. As the low weakens and scoots southeast into southern
Illinois during the evening, a brief period of freezing drizzle
may accompany the light snow before it dissipates.

There is a sharp cutoff in the snow and the low ceilings...mainly
along I-74...which includes KPIA, KBMI and KCMI. These locations
will have highly variable conditions with ceilings mainly in the
MVFR category, but with brief periods of VFR early this evening.

The GFS model wants to break up the clouds around or shortly after
daybreak Thursday. However, upstream observations and the presence
of moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere
should keep MVFR ceilings in place across all of central and
eastern IL through the morning and at least the early afternoon.
Could be some break in the clouds by late afternoon, but will
address that in future TAF issuances.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 270001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Clipper system/low pressure center just south of KUIN will
continue to produce light snow and IFR conditions in west central
and parts of central IL through at least 03z - particularly at
KSPI. As the low weakens and scoots southeast into southern
Illinois during the evening, a brief period of freezing drizzle
may accompany the light snow before it dissipates.

There is a sharp cutoff in the snow and the low ceilings...mainly
along I-74...which includes KPIA, KBMI and KCMI. These locations
will have highly variable conditions with ceilings mainly in the
MVFR category, but with brief periods of VFR early this evening.

The GFS model wants to break up the clouds around or shortly after
daybreak Thursday. However, upstream observations and the presence
of moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere
should keep MVFR ceilings in place across all of central and
eastern IL through the morning and at least the early afternoon.
Could be some break in the clouds by late afternoon, but will
address that in future TAF issuances.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller









000
FXUS63 KILX 270001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Clipper system/low pressure center just south of KUIN will
continue to produce light snow and IFR conditions in west central
and parts of central IL through at least 03z - particularly at
KSPI. As the low weakens and scoots southeast into southern
Illinois during the evening, a brief period of freezing drizzle
may accompany the light snow before it dissipates.

There is a sharp cutoff in the snow and the low ceilings...mainly
along I-74...which includes KPIA, KBMI and KCMI. These locations
will have highly variable conditions with ceilings mainly in the
MVFR category, but with brief periods of VFR early this evening.

The GFS model wants to break up the clouds around or shortly after
daybreak Thursday. However, upstream observations and the presence
of moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere
should keep MVFR ceilings in place across all of central and
eastern IL through the morning and at least the early afternoon.
Could be some break in the clouds by late afternoon, but will
address that in future TAF issuances.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller








000
FXUS63 KILX 262118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 262118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 262118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 262118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous Clipper system continues to dive southeast, with the center
northwest of St. Louis at mid afternoon. Light snow struggled to
move in initially with the drier air in place, but has made some
good progress this afternoon, and had reached Decatur and Effingham
by 3 pm. Visibility in the snow area has consistently been in the 1
to 2 mile range. Recent grid updates have limited the rain/snow
mix potential to only areas south of I-70 over the next couple
hours, and latest observations would suggest that perhaps only
Lawrenceville area would have this concern as temperatures there
have reached near 40.

Short-range models in good agreement with moving the system
southeast along the Mississippi River through this evening. Areas
north of I-74 still likely to see little of the action beyond some
flurries, as the northeast flow will be establishing itself with the
passage of the low. Have continued the light snow over most of the
remainder of the CWA into mid evening, quickly diminishing to
flurries from northwest to southeast late. Overall amounts still
looking on the light side, around an inch or so from near Rushville
southeast through Springfield toward Vandalia.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Weakening clipper system should be well off to our southeast by
Thursday morning with our area under the influence of low level
cold advection thru most of the day. Forecast soundings continue
to hold on to the low level moisture into at least the early
afternoon hours before high pressure settles in from the northwest
by late in the day. This should result in a decrease in cloud cover
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon with temperatures
struggling through the 20s. Look for a fairly quick drop off in temps
tomorrow evening as the high shifts across the area with return flow
setting up over western IL after midnight, which should put a halt
to the temp fall across the west. A gusty south wind should help
bring warmer air back into the area on Friday with afternoon
temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. Forecast 850 temps by
Saturday afternoon in the +12 to +14 degree C range which should
translate to 50s for afternoon highs. With a slower trend continuing
in models for our next frontal passage on Sunday, most of our area
will enjoy mild temperatures with low 60s possible over southeast
Illinois Sunday afternoon.

Main forecast concern will be later Sunday and especially Sunday
night as models suggest some low chance POPs across at least our
east and far southeast as the front and low level cold air tracks
southeast. Not a lot of Gulf moisture will be available in our area
ahead of the front thru Sunday evening but as the boundary shifts
south of the area late Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have
to watch for the development of some light rain or drizzle with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 30s. For now,
will hold on to slight chance to chance POPs over central thru
southeast IL on Sunday ahead of the boundary with precip chances
getting shunted south with the front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Most of the forecast soundings not showing much if any
ice crystals in the upper portion of the clouds Sunday night so
drizzle or even freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the
precip shield may need to be added in future forecasts for Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

After another setback with temps on Monday in the wake of the
upper wave and attendant cold front that slips to our southeast,
warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and hold thru the
remainder of the extended period as the upper flow transitions
more into a zonal flow thru much of next week. Significant model
spread really shows up after Tuesday with respect to shortwave
energy that had been parked out near the California coast over the
the weekend, which is forecast to eject across the Rockies and into
the Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is at least a day and a half faster
than the ECMWF with the wave as most of the guidance starts to show
POPs as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday over the forecast
area, whereas the ECMWF speed would indicate rain chances holding
off until later Thursday into Friday. With more of a zonal flow
forecast across the lower 48 thru most of next week, would think the
quicker solution would be the way to go midweek and beyond. Will
indicate chance POPs starting on Wednesday with temperatures averaging
out close to or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart






000
FXUS63 KILX 261740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous clipper system continues to drop southeast, with the low
center currently over south central Iowa. Radar echoes continue to
fill in across western Illinois, although these so far are mainly
mid level clouds as there was a fair amount of dry air exhibited
on our morning balloon sounding. The column should start
moistening from the top down fairly quickly in west central
Illinois, and light snow should be ongoing over the southwest CWA
by midday. Some of this area is already up to near freezing and
there may be a mix of rain and snow for a couple hours, but this
should trend toward all snow as evaporative cooling takes place.
Further east, it looks like the main time frame for any snow or
mixed precip will be in the afternoon, so have adjusted the
precipitation trends in the grids. Have also adjusted PoP`s in the
evening to linger them longer across the southwest half of the
forecast area, but the northeast should dry out as northeast winds
bring drier air back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly air mass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart/EJL
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 261740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous clipper system continues to drop southeast, with the low
center currently over south central Iowa. Radar echoes continue to
fill in across western Illinois, although these so far are mainly
mid level clouds as there was a fair amount of dry air exhibited
on our morning balloon sounding. The column should start
moistening from the top down fairly quickly in west central
Illinois, and light snow should be ongoing over the southwest CWA
by midday. Some of this area is already up to near freezing and
there may be a mix of rain and snow for a couple hours, but this
should trend toward all snow as evaporative cooling takes place.
Further east, it looks like the main time frame for any snow or
mixed precip will be in the afternoon, so have adjusted the
precipitation trends in the grids. Have also adjusted PoP`s in the
evening to linger them longer across the southwest half of the
forecast area, but the northeast should dry out as northeast winds
bring drier air back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly air mass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Area of IFR ceilings has been spreading westward this morning and
had reached the KBMI/KDEC areas by midday, with slightly higher
ceilings having just spread into KPIA. With a large area of higher
clouds spreading in from the west with a clipper system, am not
anticipating any significant improvement in ceilings in these
areas this afternoon. The greatest impact from the clipper will be
around KSPI and points west/south, where light snow is expected to
spread in early this afternoon and reduce visibilities to IFR
levels at times. The bulk of the snow with this system will exit
the TAF sites by late evening. While some of the soundings hint at
a brief period of VFR ceilings, lower clouds should dominate into
Thursday morning. East/southeast winds will gradually turn
northeast this evening, then northwest overnight, as the clipper
drops southeast along the Mississippi River.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart/EJL
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 261531
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
931 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous clipper system continues to drop southeast, with the low
center currently over south central Iowa. Radar echoes continue to
fill in across western Illinois, although these so far are mainly
mid level clouds as there was a fair amount of dry air exhibited
on our morning balloon sounding. The column should start
moistening from the top down fairly quickly in west central
Illinois, and light snow should be ongoing over the southwest CWA
by midday. Some of this area is already up to near freezing and
there may be a mix of rain and snow for a couple hours, but this
should trend toward all snow as evaporative cooling takes place.
Further east, it looks like the main time frame for any snow or
mixed precip will be in the afternoon, so have adjusted the
precipitation trends in the grids. Have also adjusted PoP`s in the
evening to linger them longer across the southwest half of the
forecast area, but the northeast should dry out as northeast winds
bring drier air back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A clipper system will impact the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. Clouds will thicken and lower this
morning into this afternoon, with light snow expected to develop
during the afternoon. The snow chances, once they develop, will
linger into this evening. VFR conditions should prevail until the
snow breaks out, with KSPI & KDEC most likely to see an extended
period of MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPIA, KBMI, and KCMI stand a better
chance of staying VFR once the snow develops, but they should see
at least a period of MVFR vsbys. Southeast winds will start the
period, with winds trending variable later today as the low
pressure center tracks nearby. Northwest winds are expected on the
back side of the system later tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart/EJL
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 261531
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
931 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Vigorous clipper system continues to drop southeast, with the low
center currently over south central Iowa. Radar echoes continue to
fill in across western Illinois, although these so far are mainly
mid level clouds as there was a fair amount of dry air exhibited
on our morning balloon sounding. The column should start
moistening from the top down fairly quickly in west central
Illinois, and light snow should be ongoing over the southwest CWA
by midday. Some of this area is already up to near freezing and
there may be a mix of rain and snow for a couple hours, but this
should trend toward all snow as evaporative cooling takes place.
Further east, it looks like the main time frame for any snow or
mixed precip will be in the afternoon, so have adjusted the
precipitation trends in the grids. Have also adjusted PoP`s in the
evening to linger them longer across the southwest half of the
forecast area, but the northeast should dry out as northeast winds
bring drier air back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A clipper system will impact the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. Clouds will thicken and lower this
morning into this afternoon, with light snow expected to develop
during the afternoon. The snow chances, once they develop, will
linger into this evening. VFR conditions should prevail until the
snow breaks out, with KSPI & KDEC most likely to see an extended
period of MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPIA, KBMI, and KCMI stand a better
chance of staying VFR once the snow develops, but they should see
at least a period of MVFR vsbys. Southeast winds will start the
period, with winds trending variable later today as the low
pressure center tracks nearby. Northwest winds are expected on the
back side of the system later tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart/EJL
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak










000
FXUS63 KILX 261201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A clipper system will impact the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. Clouds will thicken and lower this
morning into this afternoon, with light snow expected to develop
during the afternoon. The snow chances, once they develop, will
linger into this evening. VFR conditions should prevail until the
snow breaks out, with KSPI & KDEC most likely to see an extended
period of MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPIA, KBMI, and KCMI stand a better
chance of staying VFR once the snow develops, but they should see
at least a period of MVFR vsbys. Southeast winds will start the
period, with winds trending variable later today as the low
pressure center tracks nearby. Northwest winds are expected on the
back side of the system later tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 261201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A clipper system will impact the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. Clouds will thicken and lower this
morning into this afternoon, with light snow expected to develop
during the afternoon. The snow chances, once they develop, will
linger into this evening. VFR conditions should prevail until the
snow breaks out, with KSPI & KDEC most likely to see an extended
period of MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPIA, KBMI, and KCMI stand a better
chance of staying VFR once the snow develops, but they should see
at least a period of MVFR vsbys. Southeast winds will start the
period, with winds trending variable later today as the low
pressure center tracks nearby. Northwest winds are expected on the
back side of the system later tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 260920
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout central IL until around 15Z.
After 15Z...a fast moving storm system moving SE along the IL/MO
border will spread areas -RA/-SN with MVFR and isold IFR
conditions into much of central IL...especially KPIA-KRSV
southward. Conditions gradually improving after 00-02Z. Winds
SE4-10 kts until 00Z...becoming N-NW up to 8 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 260920
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

08z/2am surface chart shows 1010mb low centered just north of Omaha,
with light snow observed as far east as the Des Moines area.  00z
Nov 26 models are consistent with prior runs, showing the low
tracking southeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, then
into the lower Ohio River Valley by evening.  Model QPF fields have
come into better agreement, now showing a much more compact area of
precip associated with the wave skirting across mainly the W/SW KILX
CWA today.  With so much dry air initially in place, think this
makes sense as precip should be confined to locations immediately
along and to the north of the low track where lift is strongest.  As
a result, have continued to hit PoPs hardest along and southwest of
a Macomb...to Taylorville...to Robinson line.  Forecast soundings
support snow as the precip begins by mid to late morning: however,
as surface temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s this
afternoon, the snow will mix with rain.  This will serve to mitigate
potential accumulations, which are still expected to be minimal.
Snowfall amounts of one half to one inch can be expected
along/southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line.  Further
northeast, have opted to go with a dry forecast along/northeast of a
Bloomington to Paris line.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light snow will linger across much of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, as a trough axis extends northwestward from departing
low pressure in the Ohio River Valley.  A couple tenths of an inch
will be possible south of I-70 in closer proximity to the actual
low, with only trace amounts further northwest.  Any light
snow/flurries will come to an end overnight with cloudy skies
persisting through the night.  Still some question as to how quickly
skies will clear on Thursday, with the NAM suggesting clouds hanging
around for much of the day.  Given what happened with the clearing
trend yesterday and the presence of plenty of lingering low-level
moisture on forecast soundings, have opted to start the day cloudy,
followed by a gradual west-to-east clearing by afternoon.  Will be a
much colder day as well, as the departing clipper system taps
into a very chilly airmass over southern Canada.  A glancing blow
of this cold air will result in highs ranging from the middle 20s
north to the middle 30s far south.

The cold air will be short-lived however, as high pressure will
quickly shift east of the region and a strong southerly flow will
develop on Friday.  Tight pressure gradient will lead to winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph at times, which will help boost
afternoon highs into the 40s.  Even warmer weather is expected over
the weekend, as digging upper trough over the Northern Rockies
induces downstream ridging across the central CONUS.  With continued
southerly flow and partial sunshine, temps will soar into the lower
to middle 50s on Saturday and may even reach the lower 60s across
the far SE CWA on Sunday.  As the Northern Rockies wave tracks
eastward along the northern tier of states, it will gradually push a
cold front into the region early next week.  There are still some
model discrepancies concerning timing of FROPA and any potential
PoPs, with the latest model solutions delaying the front until late
Sunday.  Sprawling high pressure along the Gulf Coast will limit
northward moisture return, so think precip chances along/ahead of
the front will be minimal.  Will carry low chance PoPs across the
central/southern zones Sunday, then across the far south Sunday
night.  Front settles southward into the Ohio River Valley and
another shot of colder air temporarily arrives on Monday with highs
falling back into the 30s and lower 40s.  After that, model
solutions diverge as GFS builds another upper ridge across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday/Wednesday while the ECMWF shows a
more progressive zonal flow continuing.  The latest ECMWF is much
different than its previous run, so am skeptical to jump on this
solution just yet.  As a result, will follow the GFS more closely,
resulting in warmer weather for the middle of next week with
increasing rain chances coming into the picture by Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout central IL until around 15Z.
After 15Z...a fast moving storm system moving SE along the IL/MO
border will spread areas -RA/-SN with MVFR and isold IFR
conditions into much of central IL...especially KPIA-KRSV
southward. Conditions gradually improving after 00-02Z. Winds
SE4-10 kts until 00Z...becoming N-NW up to 8 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 260525
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Cloud cover continues to linger a bit later than expected over
east central Illinois keeping temperatures somewhat milder in that
region, mainly upper 20s, while areas to the west are seeing a
rapid drop. Temperatures have already reached below 20 degrees
around Galesburg. Surface high pressure is centered over the area
this evening, but low pressure is rapidly approaching from the NW.
SE winds will increase overnight as pressure gradients associated
with the low set up over central Illinois, which will keep
temperatures from falling much more. Updates to account for cloud
cover and temperature trends have been sent this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout central IL until around 15Z.
After 15Z...a fast moving storm system moving SE along the IL/MO
border will spread areas -RA/-SN with MVFR and isold IFR
conditions into much of central IL...especially KPIA-KRSV
southward. Conditions gradually improving after 00-02Z. Winds
SE4-10 kts until 00Z...becoming N-NW up to 8 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 260525
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Cloud cover continues to linger a bit later than expected over
east central Illinois keeping temperatures somewhat milder in that
region, mainly upper 20s, while areas to the west are seeing a
rapid drop. Temperatures have already reached below 20 degrees
around Galesburg. Surface high pressure is centered over the area
this evening, but low pressure is rapidly approaching from the NW.
SE winds will increase overnight as pressure gradients associated
with the low set up over central Illinois, which will keep
temperatures from falling much more. Updates to account for cloud
cover and temperature trends have been sent this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout central IL until around 15Z.
After 15Z...a fast moving storm system moving SE along the IL/MO
border will spread areas -RA/-SN with MVFR and isold IFR
conditions into much of central IL...especially KPIA-KRSV
southward. Conditions gradually improving after 00-02Z. Winds
SE4-10 kts until 00Z...becoming N-NW up to 8 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 260240
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Cloud cover continues to linger a bit later than expected over
east central Illinois keeping temperatures somewhat milder in that
region, mainly upper 20s, while areas to the west are seeing a
rapid drop. Temperatures have already reached below 20 degrees
around Galesburg. Surface high pressure is centered over the area
this evening, but low pressure is rapidly approaching from the NW.
SE winds will increase overnight as pressure gradients associated
with the low set up over central Illinois, which will keep
temperatures from falling much more. Updates to account for cloud
cover and temperature trends have been sent this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Currently MVFR ceilings from K1H2-KBMI eastward through central
Illinois, with clearing taking place to the west for VFR
conditions. VFR conditions spreading eastward and expected to
affect all central Illinois TAF sites by 02-04Z until around 15Z.
A fast moving storm system will move through the region mid
morning through afternoon, spreading MVFR conditions with areas
-RA/SN into the region, especially KPIA-KPRG southward. Winds
light and variable in the evening, becoming SE4-8 kts overnight
through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 260240
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Cloud cover continues to linger a bit later than expected over
east central Illinois keeping temperatures somewhat milder in that
region, mainly upper 20s, while areas to the west are seeing a
rapid drop. Temperatures have already reached below 20 degrees
around Galesburg. Surface high pressure is centered over the area
this evening, but low pressure is rapidly approaching from the NW.
SE winds will increase overnight as pressure gradients associated
with the low set up over central Illinois, which will keep
temperatures from falling much more. Updates to account for cloud
cover and temperature trends have been sent this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Currently MVFR ceilings from K1H2-KBMI eastward through central
Illinois, with clearing taking place to the west for VFR
conditions. VFR conditions spreading eastward and expected to
affect all central Illinois TAF sites by 02-04Z until around 15Z.
A fast moving storm system will move through the region mid
morning through afternoon, spreading MVFR conditions with areas
-RA/SN into the region, especially KPIA-KPRG southward. Winds
light and variable in the evening, becoming SE4-8 kts overnight
through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 260024
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Currently MVFR ceilings from K1H2-KBMI eastward through central
Illinois, with clearing taking place to the west for VFR
conditions. VFR conditions spreading eastward and expected to
affect all central Illinois TAF sites by 02-04Z until around 15Z.
A fast moving storm system will move through the region mid
morning through afternoon, spreading MVFR conditions with areas
-RA/SN into the region, especially KPIA-KPRG southward. Winds
light and variable in the evening, becoming SE4-8 kts overnight
through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 260024
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Persistent back of stratocumulus has finally started showing a
significant clearing trend over the last few hours. As of mid
afternoon, most areas west of a Galesburg to Effingham line were
mostly clear, and the remainder of the CWA should clear out by 6 pm
or so.

Quiet conditions expected overnight, with winds starting to become
southeast as high pressure that is currently overhead exits the
area. Clipper system currently dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will spread mid and high clouds into the western portions of the CWA
through the night, while the east remains relatively clear. With the
increase in clouds and winds, much of the forecast area will likely
see fairly steady temperatures overnight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Main concern this forecast package will be the location of the pcpn
tomorrow as a clipper system moves through the area. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
models are very similar with timing and track of the surface
low/clipper system moving through the area tomorrow. However the
Canadian is slower and little further east than the others, so it
will be the odd model out for this package. Pcpn will move into the
area beginning tomorrow morning and slowly spread eastward during
the day while the whole area of pcpn moves southeast. It is very
possible that the northwest areas of the CWA may not see any pcpn
tomorrow, but will still have a chance pops for tomorrow afternoon.
Likely pops will be in the west through the period, as this will be
closest to the track of the low, which should be southeast along the
IL/MO border. All the models hold some light pcpn back tomorrow
evening so will keep slight chance and chance pops in the
east/southeast counties during the evening. The big issue with this
system will be the temp profile as it moves through. Warmer air will
advect northward just ahead of the clipper system, so p-type could
be in the form of rain over the southern parts of the CWA. During
the morning, a mix of rain and snow will be possible in the
southeast 9 counties. By afternoon, this rain and snow area will
drift northward as temp rise. So, the rain and snow area will be
across the central part of the area tomorrow afternoon, with all
snow in the north and all rain in the southeast/south. The mix type
of pcpn will also limit the amount of snowfall accumulation. Higher
accumulations will be limited to the western areas, closer to the
track of the low. A half inch or more can be expected along and west
of a Galesburg to Springfield line through tomorrow evening.

Past this system, dry weather is expected through the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend. The pattern will also
become more zonal through the rest of the week, which will allow
temperatures to gradually warm through the period and into the
weekend. The coolest temps will be on Thursday and then gradually
warm into the 50s for Saturday.

During the latter part of the weekend, a dry cold front will drop
through the area. This front will not become active until after it
gets through most of the cwa because the a large high pressure area
will have the moisture blocked off from the gulf. So when the front
does become active, the pcpn chances will be confined to the
southeast third of the CWA. Pcpn type during the period will
dependent on time of day, so for simplicity, will have a chance of
rain showers Sunday and chance of snow Sunday night.

After the warm day on Sat, temps will slightly cool for Sun and
Monday. Then temps will warm back into the 40s and 50s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Currently MVFR ceilings from K1H2-KBMI eastward through central
Illinois, with clearing taking place to the west for VFR
conditions. VFR conditions spreading eastward and expected to
affect all central Illinois TAF sites by 02-04Z until around 15Z.
A fast moving storm system will move through the region mid
morning through afternoon, spreading MVFR conditions with areas
-RA/SN into the region, especially KPIA-KPRG southward. Winds
light and variable in the evening, becoming SE4-8 kts overnight
through the 24 hour TAF forecast period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton







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