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000
FXUS63 KILX 040408
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ANY FOG WE DO SEE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING
WITH BASES IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT LEVEL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 040408
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ANY FOG WE DO SEE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING
WITH BASES IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT LEVEL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 040153
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 040153
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 032248
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 032248
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY TO THE TAF SITES. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO FORM
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHAT FOG DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NON-
FACTOR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
INDICATING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 031948
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 031948
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 031948
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 031948
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 031759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 031759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 031759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 031759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 031546
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON




000
FXUS63 KILX 031546
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INTO MIDDAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F WITH NE WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN MI/WI INTO NORTHERN IA. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL TO
NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKED EAST AND BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SPC
HAS SHIFTED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTEROON/EARLY
EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF IL WHILE SLIGHT RISK OVER AR AND SOUTHERN
TN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SE ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CHANCES OF SPRINKLES
EAST OF IL RIVER WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPEAR IN SOUTHEAST
IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON





000
FXUS63 KILX 031206
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON




000
FXUS63 KILX 031206
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON





000
FXUS63 KILX 031206
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON




000
FXUS63 KILX 031206
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MID-LEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY. UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS
WHILE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP
CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS TODAY, TRIGGERING
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES. VERY FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY, BUT WENT WITH VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. UPDATES TO PRECIP MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT.

CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FOG.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON





000
FXUS63 KILX 030831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MIDLEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
SATURDAYS HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY.  UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY,
WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL
OUT.  HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WHILE INTERACTING WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 030831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST-
EAST JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR EVANSVILLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
OVER IOWA AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SPRINKLES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES WITH THAT FEATURE
ARE AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET, WHICH IS USUALLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN
DOESN`T REACH THE GROUND. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT WERE NOT HANDLING THAT
WAVE AT ALL EARLIER. THE HRRR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED IT LAST HOUR, AND
SHOWS ALL SPRINKLES DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO AFFECT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE IL-IN BORDER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS IL. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST DUE TO
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT OVERALL IN THE FORECAST RUNS THIS TIME
AROUND...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE STILL DRY FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE FORECAST.  AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NWRLY TO VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE, MODELS ARE ALREADY MISSING SOME WEAK RETURNS THIS MORNING
ON RADAR WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
THE CONCERN FOR WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIFT...FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE STILL AN ISSUE.
WARMING MIDLEVELS, AMPLE SUNSHINE, AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
SATURDAYS HIGHS...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY.  UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST FOR MON NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY,
WITH THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AND LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST BECOMES FAMILIAR AGAIN. WITH WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
THE FRONT LAYS OUT INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STARTS TO STALL
OUT.  HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WHILE INTERACTING WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY END UP CONTROLLING THE POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 030432
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 030432
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 030432
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 030432
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH A EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE SENDING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS EDGING BACK INTO CMI AND DEC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR WEST WILL THE
MOISTURE PUSH OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH PIA THE LAST TO SEE
THE CHANGE IN THEIR CIG. A FEW SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WERE EDGING WEST OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. COVERAGE IS STILL VERY LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
TO SEE IF WE WANT TO COVER IT WITH AT LEAST VCSH AT CMI AND DEC
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND
OF CIGS LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 030156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 030156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 030156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 030156
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

8PM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EAST THRU WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IL
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SAME MODELS HAD SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA INTO EXTREME EASTERN IL
BY THIS TIME BUT REALITY PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH NO PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN IL.

ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A BIT COMPARED
TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. ILX HI-RES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MEAGER
ELEVATED CAPES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG CONFINED TO EXTREME SE IL WITH THE AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OUR CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IL. NO ZFP UPDATE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 022311
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 022311
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 022311
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 021946
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 021946
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 021800
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 021800
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 021800
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 021800
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 021545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF
CHARLESTON/MATTOON UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY
DRY TODAY AND SEE MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL
AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROKEN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT DIFFERENT LEVELS TODAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS GIVING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO BMI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SPI IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME HIGHER AS THE
MORNING PROGESSES. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OR BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA FROM THE RAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU/SC WILL BE AROUND
TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST STARTING AT CMI AT 00Z AND THEN PROGRESSING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING PIA AND SPI LAST AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-12KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 021545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF
CHARLESTON/MATTOON UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY
DRY TODAY AND SEE MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL
AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROKEN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT DIFFERENT LEVELS TODAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS GIVING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO BMI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SPI IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME HIGHER AS THE
MORNING PROGESSES. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OR BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA FROM THE RAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU/SC WILL BE AROUND
TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST STARTING AT CMI AT 00Z AND THEN PROGRESSING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING PIA AND SPI LAST AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-12KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 021208
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROKEN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT DIFFERENT LEVELS TODAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS GIVING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO BMI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SPI IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME HIGHER AS THE
MORNING PROGESSES. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OR BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA FROM THE RAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU/SC WILL BE AROUND
TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST STARTING AT CMI AT 00Z AND THEN PROGRESSING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING PIA AND SPI LAST AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-12KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 021208
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROKEN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT DIFFERENT LEVELS TODAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS GIVING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO BMI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SPI IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME HIGHER AS THE
MORNING PROGESSES. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OR BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA FROM THE RAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU/SC WILL BE AROUND
TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST STARTING AT CMI AT 00Z AND THEN PROGRESSING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING PIA AND SPI LAST AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-12KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 020826
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 020826
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 020826
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 020430
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THE PRODUCED THE FUNNEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST.
A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS ALSO
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK THE WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 020430
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THE PRODUCED THE FUNNEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST.
A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS ALSO
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK THE WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 020203
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
903 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THE PRODUCED THE FUNNEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST.
A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS ALSO
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK THE WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 020203
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
903 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THE PRODUCED THE FUNNEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST.
A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS ALSO
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK THE WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 012317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 012317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 012317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 012317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KILX 011952
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 011952
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 011754
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 011754
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 011754
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 011754
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 011547
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SOME LIGHT FOG IS EFFECTING SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
EFFECT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG TIL 14Z. AFTER THIS...BASIC CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 4KFT WITH AN OVERCAST MID DECK
AROUND 8KFT. MODELS ADVERTISING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOME OF
THE SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO NOT THINK
THE CONVECTION WILL GET TO PIA AND BMI. SO HAVE A VCTS WITH A
BROKEN CIG AROUND 4KFT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL
LAST ALL NIGHT SO HAVE VCTS ENDING BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z...FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. BEYONDTHAT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY. SO
HAVE PIA/BMI/CMI WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 011547
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SOME LIGHT FOG IS EFFECTING SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
EFFECT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG TIL 14Z. AFTER THIS...BASIC CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 4KFT WITH AN OVERCAST MID DECK
AROUND 8KFT. MODELS ADVERTISING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOME OF
THE SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO NOT THINK
THE CONVECTION WILL GET TO PIA AND BMI. SO HAVE A VCTS WITH A
BROKEN CIG AROUND 4KFT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL
LAST ALL NIGHT SO HAVE VCTS ENDING BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z...FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. BEYONDTHAT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY. SO
HAVE PIA/BMI/CMI WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 011147
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SOME LIGHT FOG IS EFFECTING SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
EFFECT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG TIL 14Z. AFTER THIS...BASIC CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 4KFT WITH AN OVERCAST MID DECK
AROUND 8KFT. MODELS ADVERTISING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOME OF
THE SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO NOT THINK
THE CONVECTION WILL GET TO PIA AND BMI. SO HAVE A VCTS WITH A
BROKEN CIG AROUND 4KFT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL
LAST ALL NIGHT SO HAVE VCTS ENDING BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z...FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. BEYONDTHAT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY. SO
HAVE PIA/BMI/CMI WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 011147
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SOME LIGHT FOG IS EFFECTING SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
EFFECT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG TIL 14Z. AFTER THIS...BASIC CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 4KFT WITH AN OVERCAST MID DECK
AROUND 8KFT. MODELS ADVERTISING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOME OF
THE SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO NOT THINK
THE CONVECTION WILL GET TO PIA AND BMI. SO HAVE A VCTS WITH A
BROKEN CIG AROUND 4KFT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL
LAST ALL NIGHT SO HAVE VCTS ENDING BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z...FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. BEYONDTHAT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY. SO
HAVE PIA/BMI/CMI WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 010837
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HZ OVERNIGHT WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO MISSOURI BY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH VCSH OVER OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW VFR CIGS SETTLING IN DURING THE MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND GENERALLY A LIGHT EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 010837
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HZ OVERNIGHT WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO MISSOURI BY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH VCSH OVER OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW VFR CIGS SETTLING IN DURING THE MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND GENERALLY A LIGHT EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH




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