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000
FXUS63 KILX 281758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1258 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Will update the forecast to remove patchy fog this morning and
add isolated thunderstorms to far east central IL near Danville
and Paris. Currently have showers developing with heavier rains
near Danville. Highs to range from around 60F from Galesburg to
Lacon north, to 70-75F in southeast IL. 1009 mb surface low
pressure was over central IA late thismorning with an occluded
front extending se through central IL/IN near I-74. Aloft a 554 dm
500 mb low was over nw IA. Models track upper level low into
southeast MN by sunset while surface low weakens as it tracks into
northern IL by sunset. More moisture and weak lift over northeast
CWA to continue chances of showers along with more cloud cover.
Isolated thunderstorms possible from Danville northeast from late
morning and into mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Broken cumulus cloud field across central IL this afternoon with
bases generally 3-6k ft but at times as low as MVFR 1.5-3k ft
especially along I-74 into mid afternoon. Isolated showers
possible this afternoon mainly from I-74 northeast and isolated
coverage can be handled with VCSH if needed. Isolated
thunderstorms will stay ne of Danville. MVFR ceilings to return
tonight and linger into Friday morning with IFR ceilings possible
along i-74 overnight into early Friday morning along with MVFR
vsbys in fog. Winds stay fairly light next 24 hours with weakening
occluded front near I-74. WNW winds near 10 kts this afternoon to
veer NW tonight and then NNE Friday morning and be 4-8 kts.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 281546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Will update the forecast to remove patchy fog this morning and
add isolated thunderstorms to far east central IL near Danville
and Paris. Currently have showers developing with heavier rains
near Danville. Highs to range from around 60F from Galesburg to
Lacon north, to 70-75F in southeast IL. 1009 mb surface low
pressure was over central IA late thismorning with an occluded
front extending se through central IL/IN near I-74. Aloft a 554 dm
500 mb low was over nw IA. Models track upper level low into
southeast MN by sunset while surface low weakens as it tracks into
northern IL by sunset. More moisture and weak lift over northeast
CWA to continue chances of showers along with more cloud cover.
Isolated thunderstorms possible from Danville northeast from late
morning and into mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Areas that did clear out early this morning are expected to see
MVFR/IFR cigs return for several hours this morning before cigs
improve to low VFR this afternoon. Challenging forecast at least
through the morning hours as short term models indicating low
clouds and vsbys across the north, with the potential for mainly
just VFR cigs over our southern TAF sites this morning with
VFR cigs this afternoon as somewhat drier air works its way
into the area. Surface winds will go westerly at all sites today
with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, which should diminish to
5 to 10 kts tonight.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 281113
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
613 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Areas that did clear out early this morning are expected to see
MVFR/IFR cigs return for several hours this morning before cigs
improve to low VFR this afternoon. Challenging forecast at least
through the morning hours as short term models indicating low
clouds and vsbys across the north, with the potential for mainly
just VFR cigs over our southern TAF sites this morning with
VFR cigs this afternoon as somewhat drier air works its way
into the area. Surface winds will go westerly at all sites today
with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, which should diminish to
5 to 10 kts tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 281113
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
613 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Areas that did clear out early this morning are expected to see
MVFR/IFR cigs return for several hours this morning before cigs
improve to low VFR this afternoon. Challenging forecast at least
through the morning hours as short term models indicating low
clouds and vsbys across the north, with the potential for mainly
just VFR cigs over our southern TAF sites this morning with
VFR cigs this afternoon as somewhat drier air works its way
into the area. Surface winds will go westerly at all sites today
with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range, which should diminish to
5 to 10 kts tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 280837
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary lying across the southern TAF sites early this
morning with scattered TSRA occurring along the boundary. The
storms look to be weakening and expect that trend to continue
over the next several hours. Latest satellite data and surface
observations suggest our TAF forecast area will be in between
LIFR cigs across our north, to possibly a period of VFR cigs
across the south. Low pressure will track across the area today
and be to our east later this afternoon. Until then, this track
will bring about variable wind directions across the forecast
area with mostly an easterly flow in the north, and winds
shifting from a east to southeast direction into more of a
southwesterly flow later this morning as the low tracks across
central Illinois. We look for mostly MVFR to low VFR cigs
once the low shifts off to our east later today into tonight.
Winds will be westerly at that time as well across the
forecast area with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 280548
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1248 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Monitoring storms across Central Illinois this evening and
watching another line of activity approach the western portions of
the state. Expect much of this line to mainly impact areas along
and west of I-55 this evening...with more scattered activity
possible elsewhere. No major updates expected at this point, but
will continue to monitor extent of thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary lying across the southern TAF sites early this
morning with scattered TSRA occurring along the boundary. The
storms look to be weakening and expect that trend to continue
over the next several hours. Latest satellite data and surface
observations suggest our TAF forecast area will be in between
LIFR cigs across our north, to possibly a period of VFR cigs
across the south. Low pressure will track across the area today
and be to our east later this afternoon. Until then, this track
will bring about variable wind directions across the forecast
area with mostly an easterly flow in the north, and winds
shifting from a east to southeast direction into more of a
southwesterly flow later this morning as the low tracks across
central Illinois. We look for mostly MVFR to low VFR cigs
once the low shifts off to our east later today into tonight.
Winds will be westerly at that time as well across the
forecast area with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 280548
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1248 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Monitoring storms across Central Illinois this evening and
watching another line of activity approach the western portions of
the state. Expect much of this line to mainly impact areas along
and west of I-55 this evening...with more scattered activity
possible elsewhere. No major updates expected at this point, but
will continue to monitor extent of thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary lying across the southern TAF sites early this
morning with scattered TSRA occurring along the boundary. The
storms look to be weakening and expect that trend to continue
over the next several hours. Latest satellite data and surface
observations suggest our TAF forecast area will be in between
LIFR cigs across our north, to possibly a period of VFR cigs
across the south. Low pressure will track across the area today
and be to our east later this afternoon. Until then, this track
will bring about variable wind directions across the forecast
area with mostly an easterly flow in the north, and winds
shifting from a east to southeast direction into more of a
southwesterly flow later this morning as the low tracks across
central Illinois. We look for mostly MVFR to low VFR cigs
once the low shifts off to our east later today into tonight.
Winds will be westerly at that time as well across the
forecast area with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 280209
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Monitoring storms across Central Illinois this evening and
watching another line of activity approach the western portions of
the state. Expect much of this line to mainly impact areas along
and west of I-55 this evening...with more scattered activity
possible elsewhere. No major updates expected at this point, but
will continue to monitor extent of thunderstorms at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are progressing N-NE into our
forecast area at 00z/7pm. It appears a band of showers and storms
may fill in as the line of forcing moves northeast toward N
Indiana. Have included a tempo for a few hours of thunderstorms at
the terminal sites this evening. IFR and low MVFR conditions will
continue through the evening, with some improvement to MVFR across
the board during the day tomorrow, as models show a dry slot
working ne into central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC
where ceilings could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. East
winds around 15 kts will remain east at 10-15kt overnight, then
begin to shift to the W-SW tomorrow from S to N.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 280041
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
741 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are progressing N-NE into our
forecast area at 00z/7pm. It appears a band of showers and storms
may fill in as the line of forcing moves northeast toward N
Indiana. Have included a tempo for a few hours of thunderstorms at
the terminal sites this evening. IFR and low MVFR conditions will
continue through the evening, with some improvement to MVFR across
the board during the day tomorrow, as models show a dry slot
working ne into central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC
where ceilings could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. East
winds around 15 kts will remain east at 10-15kt overnight, then
begin to shift to the W-SW tomorrow from S to N.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 272014
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 271757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Just a few adjustments needed to todays forecast with tightening
the temperature gradient from NNE to SSW today and some tweaks to
weather elements today. An expanding band of showers was spreading
ne toward I-74 late this morning with a few thunderstorms south of
I-70 especially near Lawrenceville. Strong 995 mb surface low
pressure over eastern Nebraska had a warm front over ne MO into
far SW IL and northern KY, south of I-64. Dewpoints range from
lower 60s from I-70 south to the mid 40s from Galesburg and Lacon
north. Temps ragne from upper 40s from Galesburg and Lacon north
to the lower 60s in southeast IL. HRRR model doing better with
handling convection today and leaned on this model for forecast
update today. Should continue to see showers become more
widespread with a few thunderstorms developing during mid day and
then diminish from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon. But
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening with approaching warm front. SPC
day1 outlook has slight risk of severe storms sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line from mainly late afternoon into mid
evening as warm front slowly pushes into sw IL with increasing
instability in our SW counties as MUCapes elevate to 1-2k J/kg.
Highs today will struggle to reach 60F over northern CWA from
Peoria and Bloomington north, to lower 70s in southeast IL south
of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 271757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Just a few adjustments needed to todays forecast with tightening
the temperature gradient from NNE to SSW today and some tweaks to
weather elements today. An expanding band of showers was spreading
ne toward I-74 late this morning with a few thunderstorms south of
I-70 especially near Lawrenceville. Strong 995 mb surface low
pressure over eastern Nebraska had a warm front over ne MO into
far SW IL and northern KY, south of I-64. Dewpoints range from
lower 60s from I-70 south to the mid 40s from Galesburg and Lacon
north. Temps ragne from upper 40s from Galesburg and Lacon north
to the lower 60s in southeast IL. HRRR model doing better with
handling convection today and leaned on this model for forecast
update today. Should continue to see showers become more
widespread with a few thunderstorms developing during mid day and
then diminish from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon. But
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening with approaching warm front. SPC
day1 outlook has slight risk of severe storms sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line from mainly late afternoon into mid
evening as warm front slowly pushes into sw IL with increasing
instability in our SW counties as MUCapes elevate to 1-2k J/kg.
Highs today will struggle to reach 60F over northern CWA from
Peoria and Bloomington north, to lower 70s in southeast IL south
of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 271549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Just a few adjustments needed to todays forecast with tightening
the temperature gradient from NNE to SSW today and some tweaks to
weather elements today. An expanding band of showers was spreading
ne toward I-74 late this morning with a few thunderstorms south of
I-70 especially near Lawrenceville. Strong 995 mb surface low
pressure over eastern Nebraska had a warm front over ne MO into
far SW IL and northern KY, south of I-64. Dewpoints range from
lower 60s from I-70 south to the mid 40s from Galesburg and Lacon
north. Temps ragne from upper 40s from Galesburg and Lacon north
to the lower 60s in southeast IL. HRRR model doing better with
handling convection today and leaned on this model for forecast
update today. Should continue to see showers become more
widespread with a few thunderstorms developing during mid day and
then diminish from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon. But
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening with approaching warm front. SPC
day1 outlook has slight risk of severe storms sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line from mainly late afternoon into mid
evening as warm front slowly pushes into sw IL with increasing
instability in our SW counties as MUCapes elevate to 1-2k J/kg.
Highs today will struggle to reach 60F over northern CWA from
Peoria and Bloomington north, to lower 70s in southeast IL south
of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys expected over most of the TAF sites thru
at least this morning before we see cigs rise into the MVFR to low
VFR category this afternoon. Periods of showers and TSRA can be
expected as well as a frontal boundary, currently to our south,
shifts slowly north into south central Illinois later today. The
first wave of rain and isold TSRA just west of STL this morning
will shift northeast into our area during the morning hours before
a temporary break in the rain moves in early this afternoon. That
will be followed by another wave of showers and possibly some
strong TSRA (especially for SPI and DEC) after 20z. Forecast
soundings do indicate enough turbulent mixing occurring with
the rainshowers and storms to bring the cigs to low VFR at times
this afternoon. Areas from PIA and BMI may stay in the IFR range
thru most of the day, while our southern TAF sites, SPI, DEC and
CMI may see the temporary cigs up to low VFR at times this
afternoon and evening before returning back to at least MVFR
category late tonight. Surface winds will be easterly at 12 to 17
kts today with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Easterly flow
expected again tonight but with speeds diminishing to 8 to 13 kts
as the surface low approaches the area.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 271031
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys expected over most of the TAF sites thru
at least this morning before we see cigs rise into the MVFR to low
VFR category this afternoon. Periods of showers and TSRA can be
expected as well as a frontal boundary, currently to our south,
shifts slowly north into south central Illinois later today. The
first wave of rain and isold TSRA just west of STL this morning
will shift northeast into our area during the morning hours before
a temporary break in the rain moves in early this afternoon. That
will be followed by another wave of showers and possibly some
strong TSRA (especially for SPI and DEC) after 20z. Forecast
soundings do indicate enough turbulent mixing occurring with
the rainshowers and storms to bring the cigs to low VFR at times
this afternoon. Areas from PIA and BMI may stay in the IFR range
thru most of the day, while our southern TAF sites, SPI, DEC and
CMI may see the temporary cigs up to low VFR at times this
afternoon and evening before returning back to at least MVFR
category late tonight. Surface winds will be easterly at 12 to 17
kts today with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Easterly flow
expected again tonight but with speeds diminishing to 8 to 13 kts
as the surface low approaches the area.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 271031
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys expected over most of the TAF sites thru
at least this morning before we see cigs rise into the MVFR to low
VFR category this afternoon. Periods of showers and TSRA can be
expected as well as a frontal boundary, currently to our south,
shifts slowly north into south central Illinois later today. The
first wave of rain and isold TSRA just west of STL this morning
will shift northeast into our area during the morning hours before
a temporary break in the rain moves in early this afternoon. That
will be followed by another wave of showers and possibly some
strong TSRA (especially for SPI and DEC) after 20z. Forecast
soundings do indicate enough turbulent mixing occurring with
the rainshowers and storms to bring the cigs to low VFR at times
this afternoon. Areas from PIA and BMI may stay in the IFR range
thru most of the day, while our southern TAF sites, SPI, DEC and
CMI may see the temporary cigs up to low VFR at times this
afternoon and evening before returning back to at least MVFR
category late tonight. Surface winds will be easterly at 12 to 17
kts today with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Easterly flow
expected again tonight but with speeds diminishing to 8 to 13 kts
as the surface low approaches the area.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 270823
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A break in the showers and thunderstorms will continue through
10-12z for the most part, with SPI having the best chance of
seeing precip arrive before sunrise. HRRR and RAP keep a majority
of the area dry until after 12z, with a band of rain advancing
into central IL from the SW just after 12z. The RAP keeps precip
SW of PIA to SPI to DEC until afternoon, while the NAM12 pushes a
band of showers/storms across our terminals between 15z and 21z,
then develops a strong to severe complex of storms just west of
PIA to SPI around 00z/7pm and pushes that system across all of the
TAF sites between 01z-07z Wed night at the end of this TAF period.
Will trend toward NAM for this TAF update, but with the potential
for significant breaks in rain/storms during the day tomorrow. Will
introduce stronger storms for the evening period.

IFR clouds and MVFR VIS have already pushed southwest over BMI,
with MVFR clouds reaching PIA. HRRR projections show all TAF sites
will drop to at least MVFR with IFR likely lingering at BMI until
14-15z when MVFR conditions develop in turbulent mixing with
precip onset. Will keep MVFR conditions as prevailing for a
majority of the next 24 hours, with tempos for IFR or LIFR
tomorrow eve with strongest storms.

Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15-17 kts are expected to veer
more east to southeast by Wed afternoon and gust to 18-24 kts, as
a warm front lifts north into central IL.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 270823
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall.  Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region.  Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW.  Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled.  Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again.  For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat.  Slight pops in for
now.  Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A break in the showers and thunderstorms will continue through
10-12z for the most part, with SPI having the best chance of
seeing precip arrive before sunrise. HRRR and RAP keep a majority
of the area dry until after 12z, with a band of rain advancing
into central IL from the SW just after 12z. The RAP keeps precip
SW of PIA to SPI to DEC until afternoon, while the NAM12 pushes a
band of showers/storms across our terminals between 15z and 21z,
then develops a strong to severe complex of storms just west of
PIA to SPI around 00z/7pm and pushes that system across all of the
TAF sites between 01z-07z Wed night at the end of this TAF period.
Will trend toward NAM for this TAF update, but with the potential
for significant breaks in rain/storms during the day tomorrow. Will
introduce stronger storms for the evening period.

IFR clouds and MVFR VIS have already pushed southwest over BMI,
with MVFR clouds reaching PIA. HRRR projections show all TAF sites
will drop to at least MVFR with IFR likely lingering at BMI until
14-15z when MVFR conditions develop in turbulent mixing with
precip onset. Will keep MVFR conditions as prevailing for a
majority of the next 24 hours, with tempos for IFR or LIFR
tomorrow eve with strongest storms.

Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15-17 kts are expected to veer
more east to southeast by Wed afternoon and gust to 18-24 kts, as
a warm front lifts north into central IL.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 270439
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The initial wave of showers and storms have departed into Indiana
by 9 pm. A stationary front remains stalled across south-central
IL, roughly just north of I-70. The latest HRRR and RAP updates
show that a return of showers and scattered storms looks to hold
off until later tonight for areas W-SW of Galesburg to Springfield
to Effingham. Areas east of there have a decent chance of
remaining dry until during the day on Wed. Have updated the precip
chances to remove rain the rest of the evening, and slow down the
advance of showers after midnight. However, may still be over-done
with PoPs. Temps look on track to remain relatively stable the
rest of the night under an initial blanket of cirrus, and
eventually thickening mid clouds.

We are still expecting the showers and storms that develop
tomorrow afternoon could become severe for areas SW of Springfield
to Effingham, where SPC has defined a Slight Risk of severe
storms.

Update forecast info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms eastward across central and east central/southeast
IL rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN
by early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving
toward St Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward
across southern IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott,
Morgan, Sangamon, Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead
of MCS in moderately unstable warm sector south of I-72 with
Capes 2000-2600 J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these
thunderstorms could become strong to even severe with damaging
winds and large hail. Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening,
but this will be short lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over
central KS to deepen to 993 mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska
by Wed morning and pulls frontal boundary back northeast toward
southwest IL. Showers and scattered thunderstorms to spread ne
into central and southeast IL overnight especially late tonight
into Wed. Lows tonight range from around 50F from Peoria and
Bloomington north to around 60F in southeast IL from I-70 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A break in the showers and thunderstorms will continue through
10-12z for the most part, with SPI having the best chance of
seeing precip arrive before sunrise. HRRR and RAP keep a majority
of the area dry until after 12z, with a band of rain advancing
into central IL from the SW just after 12z. The RAP keeps precip
SW of PIA to SPI to DEC until afternoon, while the NAM12 pushes a
band of showers/storms across our terminals between 15z and 21z,
then develops a strong to severe complex of storms just west of
PIA to SPI around 00z/7pm and pushes that system across all of the
TAF sites between 01z-07z Wed night at the end of this TAF period.
Will trend toward NAM for this TAF update, but with the potential
for significant breaks in rain/storms during the day tomorrow. Will
introduce stronger storms for the evening period.

IFR clouds and MVFR VIS have already pushed southwest over BMI,
with MVFR clouds reaching PIA. HRRR projections show all TAF sites
will drop to at least MVFR with IFR likely lingering at BMI until
14-15z when MVFR conditions develop in turbulent mixing with
precip onset. Will keep MVFR conditions as prevailing for a
majority of the next 24 hours, with tempos for IFR or LIFR
tomorrow eve with strongest storms.

Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15-17 kts are expected to veer
more east to southeast by Wed afternoon and gust to 18-24 kts, as
a warm front lifts north into central IL.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 270209
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The initial wave of showers and storms have departed into Indiana
by 9 pm. A stationary front remains stalled across south-central
IL, roughly just north of I-70. The latest HRRR and RAP updates
show that a return of showers and scattered storms looks to hold
off until later tonight for areas W-SW of Galesburg to Springfield
to Effingham. Areas east of there have a decent chance of
remaining dry until during the day on Wed. Have updated the precip
chances to remove rain the rest of the evening, and slow down the
advance of showers after midnight. However, may still be over-done
with PoPs. Temps look on track to remain relatively stable the
rest of the night under an initial blanket of cirrus, and
eventually thickening mid clouds.

We are still expecting the showers and storms that develop
tomorrow afternoon could become severe for areas SW of Springfield
to Effingham, where SPC has defined a Slight Risk of severe
storms.

Update forecast info is already available.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms eastward across central and east central/southeast
IL rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN
by early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving
toward St Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward
across southern IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott,
Morgan, Sangamon, Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead
of MCS in moderately unstable warm sector south of I-72 with
Capes 2000-2600 J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these
thunderstorms could become strong to even severe with damaging
winds and large hail. Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening,
but this will be short lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over
central KS to deepen to 993 mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska
by Wed morning and pulls frontal boundary back northeast toward
southwest IL. Showers and scattered thunderstorms to spread ne
into central and southeast IL overnight especially late tonight
into Wed. Lows tonight range from around 50F from Peoria and
Bloomington north to around 60F in southeast IL from I-70 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Area of showers and thunderstorms have exited southeast of DEC and
CMI as a cold front has pushed southeast of the Wabash river early
this evening. VFR conditions expected most of this evening over
central IL with broken to overcast mid level clouds and scattered
lower clouds. Breezy northeast winds over central IL behind cold
front to advect MVFR clouds (bases of 1-2.5k ft) over northern IL
sw into central IL by overnight and especially impact I-74 TAF
sites reaching BMI first around 06Z. A 996 mb surface low
pressure deepening over central KS to lift toward the NE/IA/MO
border Wed afternoon. This will pull the frontal boundary over
central MO and southern IL back northward into sw IL on Wed
afternoon. This to develop and spread showers and scattered
thunderstorms ne across central IL late tonight and Wed morning,
with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions expected. Then showers may
become more scattered Wed afternoon with a few thunderstorms still
possible. Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15 kts with gusts
18-24 kts to veer more southeast by Wed afternoon as warm front
approaches central IL.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 262355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
655 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thundestorms eastward across central and east central/southeast IL
rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN by
early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving toward St
Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward aross southern
IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott, Morgan, Sangamon,
Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead of MCS in
moderaterly unstable warm sector south of I-72 with Capes 2000-2600
J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these thunderstorms could
become strong to even severe with damaging winds and large hail.
Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening, but this will be short
lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over central KS to deepen to 993
mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska by Wed morning and pulls
frontal boundary back northeast toward southwest IL. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms to spread ne into central and southeast IL
overnight especially late tonight into Wed. Lows tonight range from
around 50F from Peoria and Bloomington north to around 60F in
southeast IL from I-70 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Area of showers and thunderstorms have exited southeast of DEC and
CMI as a cold front has pushed southeast of the Wabash river early
this evening. VFR conditions expected most of this evening over
central IL with broken to overcast mid level clouds and scattered
lower clouds. Breezy northeast winds over central IL behind cold
front to advect MVFR clouds (bases of 1-2.5k ft) over northern IL
sw into central IL by overnight and especially impact I-74 TAF
sites reaching BMI first around 06Z. A 996 mb surface low
pressure deepening over central KS to lift toward the NE/IA/MO
border Wed afternoon. This will pull the frontal boundary over
central MO and southern IL back northward into sw IL on Wed
afternoon. This to develop and spread showers and scattered
thunderstorms ne across central IL late tonight and Wed morning,
with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions expected. Then showers may
become more scattered Wed afternoon with a few thunderstorms still
possible. Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15 kts with gusts
18-24 kts to veer more southeast by Wed afternoon as warm front
approaches central IL.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 261943
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thundestorms eastward across central and east central/southeast IL
rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN by
early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving toward St
Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward aross southern
IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott, Morgan, Sangamon,
Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead of MCS in
moderaterly unstable warm sector south of I-72 with Capes 2000-2600
J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these thunderstorms could
become strong to even severe with damaging winds and large hail.
Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening, but this will be short
lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over central KS to deepen to 993
mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska by Wed morning and pulls
frontal boundary back northeast toward southwest IL. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms to spread ne into central and southeast IL
overnight especially late tonight into Wed. Lows tonight range from
around 50F from Peoria and Bloomington north to around 60F in
southeast IL from I-70 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Major adjustments to earlier forecasts with large MCS over
central/ne MO, southeast IA and west central IL tracking ESE
across central IL during this afternoon. This MCS is tracking further
northward and quicker than earlier forecasted by high res models.
Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will be possible during mid and
late afternoon and exiting ESE of DEC and CMI by 00Z/7 pm. SPC
keeps the threat of severe storms sw of SPI this afternoon as a
strong to severe bowing line heading east toward St Louis metro
and to affect areas south of SPI and DEC during mid and late
afternoon. Low stratus deck of cloud from 500-1500 ft over
northern IL north of I-80 could be advected southward into central
IL overnight into Wed morning on increasing ne winds behind a cold
front that is currently near I-72. Cold front projected to track
into southeast IL late this afternoon and early evening. Currently
have fairly light and variably winds over central IL and these
winds to become NE and increase to 10-16 kts and gusts of 18-23
kts later tonight into Wed morning as winds veer east. Another
area of showers and thunderstorms to spread ne into central IL
later tonight and especially Wed morning with MVFR conditions
prevailing and possibly even IFR.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 261759
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip.  However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature.  The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday  as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again.  Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system.  The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression.  Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Major adjustments to earlier forecasts with large MCS over
central/ne MO, southeast IA and west central IL tracking ESE
across central IL during this afternoon. This MCS is tracking further
northward and quicker than earlier forecasted by high res models.
Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will be possible during mid and
late afternoon and exiting ESE of DEC and CMI by 00Z/7 pm. SPC
keeps the threat of severe storms sw of SPI this afternoon as a
strong to severe bowing line heading east toward St Louis metro
and to affect areas south of SPI and DEC during mid and late
afternoon. Low stratus deck of cloud from 500-1500 ft over
northern IL north of I-80 could be advected southward into central
IL overnight into Wed morning on increasing ne winds behind a cold
front that is currently near I-72. Cold front projected to track
into southeast IL late this afternoon and early evening. Currently
have fairly light and variably winds over central IL and these
winds to become NE and increase to 10-16 kts and gusts of 18-23
kts later tonight into Wed morning as winds veer east. Another
area of showers and thunderstorms to spread ne into central IL
later tonight and especially Wed morning with MVFR conditions
prevailing and possibly even IFR.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 261547
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1047 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip.  However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature.  The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday  as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again.  Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system.  The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression.  Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers and
thunderstorms south of I-72 this afternoon and also increase cloud
cover across CWA. MCS over southern IA and northern MO is
spreading clouds eastward toward I-57 late this morning, while
leading edge of showers and thunderstorms moving into west central
IL just west of CWA. HRRR model seems 1-2 hours too slow with this
convection spreading ESE across areas south of I-74 this
afternoon and following the quicker SPC high res model solution.
SPC has slight risk of severe storms over much of Clay and sw
Jasper counties by late afternoon. Frontal boundary is pressing
southward toward I-72 late this morning and will push south of
I-70 late this afternoon. Temps currently range from mid 60s from
Macomb to Lacon north to the mid 70s from I-72 south. Highs today
to range from the upper 60s to near 70F from Galesburg and Lacon
north to the upper 70s and lower 80s from I-72 south.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 261125
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip.  However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature.  The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday  as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again.  Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system.  The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression.  Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Patchy MVFR cigs possible for a brief time early this morning,
then we will have to watch the IFR and LIFR cigs over northeast
Illinois, which are currently tracking southwest and may affect
our northern TAF sites later this morning. A band of showers and
thunderstorms looks to affect areas just south of KSPI, KDEC and
KCMI this afternoon but will include VCTS to cover for the potential
that some of the TSRA activity may affect them at or just after
18z. Last several runs of the short term high res models continues
to suggest the stratus deck shifting south-southwest out of
northeast Illinois will stay just north of our TAF sites this
morning. None of the forecast soundings indicate any low level
stratus at our sites even this evening as a northeasterly flow
builds in across the area. Surface winds ahead of the front will
be southwest to west, and then will shift into the northeast
this morning at 8 to 15 kts, but increase from the northeast to
between 10 and 15 kts tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 261125
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip.  However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature.  The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday  as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again.  Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system.  The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression.  Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Patchy MVFR cigs possible for a brief time early this morning,
then we will have to watch the IFR and LIFR cigs over northeast
Illinois, which are currently tracking southwest and may affect
our northern TAF sites later this morning. A band of showers and
thunderstorms looks to affect areas just south of KSPI, KDEC and
KCMI this afternoon but will include VCTS to cover for the potential
that some of the TSRA activity may affect them at or just after
18z. Last several runs of the short term high res models continues
to suggest the stratus deck shifting south-southwest out of
northeast Illinois will stay just north of our TAF sites this
morning. None of the forecast soundings indicate any low level
stratus at our sites even this evening as a northeasterly flow
builds in across the area. Surface winds ahead of the front will
be southwest to west, and then will shift into the northeast
this morning at 8 to 15 kts, but increase from the northeast to
between 10 and 15 kts tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 260835
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip.  However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature.  The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday  as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again.  Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system.  The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression.  Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sct to
bkn clouds at around 5-6kft will continue over the area and then
become all scattered in a few hours at all sites. However,
additional moisture will increase along the boundary that is
slowly moving through the area. By morning this will bring broken
cigs around 4kft at all sites. These broken cigs will continue
over the area through remainder of the forecast period. With the
frond just south of sites, any pcpn along the front should remain
south of the TAF sites as well. Winds will be tricky as the front
will be fairly stationary near I-72, so PIA/BMI and then CMI will
see winds become more northeast after FROPA. SPI and DEC should
see variable winds through most of the period, but then become
more southwest for the afternoon and evening periods.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 260453
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Boundary is finally moving through the CWA this evening. Will need
to update pop/wx grids to account for current situation and
trends. Based on radar, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move through the CWA, mainly east of I-55. Boundary is
hard to see in the observations but it can be seen on radar just
passing the NWS office and is just east of I-55. This movement
will continue through the night, which means the showers could as
well. Other updates will be needed to account for the scattered
clouds in the west behind the boundary. Update forthcoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sct to
bkn clouds at around 5-6kft will continue over the area and then
become all scattered in a few hours at all sites. However,
additional moisture will increase along the boundary that is
slowly moving through the area. By morning this will bring broken
cigs around 4kft at all sites. These broken cigs will continue
over the area through remainder of the forecast period. With the
frond just south of sites, any pcpn along the front should remain
south of the TAF sites as well. Winds will be tricky as the front
will be fairly stationary near I-72, so PIA/BMI and then CMI will
see winds become more northeast after FROPA. SPI and DEC should
see variable winds through most of the period, but then become
more southwest for the afternoon and evening periods.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 260453
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Boundary is finally moving through the CWA this evening. Will need
to update pop/wx grids to account for current situation and
trends. Based on radar, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move through the CWA, mainly east of I-55. Boundary is
hard to see in the observations but it can be seen on radar just
passing the NWS office and is just east of I-55. This movement
will continue through the night, which means the showers could as
well. Other updates will be needed to account for the scattered
clouds in the west behind the boundary. Update forthcoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sct to
bkn clouds at around 5-6kft will continue over the area and then
become all scattered in a few hours at all sites. However,
additional moisture will increase along the boundary that is
slowly moving through the area. By morning this will bring broken
cigs around 4kft at all sites. These broken cigs will continue
over the area through remainder of the forecast period. With the
frond just south of sites, any pcpn along the front should remain
south of the TAF sites as well. Winds will be tricky as the front
will be fairly stationary near I-72, so PIA/BMI and then CMI will
see winds become more northeast after FROPA. SPI and DEC should
see variable winds through most of the period, but then become
more southwest for the afternoon and evening periods.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 260222
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
922 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Boundary is finally moving through the CWA this evening. Will need
to update pop/wx grids to account for current situation and
trends. Based on radar, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move through the CWA, mainly east of I-55. Boundary is
hard to see in the observations but it can be seen on radar just
passing the NWS office and is just east of I-55. This movement
will continue through the night, which means the showers could as
well. Other updates will be needed to account for the scattered
clouds in the west behind the boundary. Update forthcoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
are high based around 7kft and am expecting sct-bkn clouds through
the evening. HRRR still shows some pcpn developing this evening
and moving across central IL, but think it will be near
SPI/DEC only. So will only have VCSH at these two sites and not
add til pcpn begins to showup on radar. Based on satellite loop,
must be some sort of CAP keeping storms from getting out of had.
Overnight once the frontal boundary pushes past the sites, skies
will become scattered. Boundary should push far enough south that
pcpn is not expected at any of the sites tomorrow. However, lower
clouds around 3.5kft will become broken at all sites. Winds will
be southerly, but then become southwest overnight and then
westerly tomorrow or variable with the front passing through late
tonight.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 252333
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
633 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
are high based around 7kft and am expecting sct-bkn clouds through
the evening. HRRR still shows some pcpn developing this evening
and moving across central IL, but think it will be near
SPI/DEC only. So will only have VCSH at these two sites and not
add til pcpn begins to showup on radar. Based on satellite loop,
must be some sort of CAP keeping storms from getting out of had.
Overnight once the frontal boundary pushes past the sites, skies
will become scattered. Boundary should push far enough south that
pcpn is not expected at any of the sites tomorrow. However, lower
clouds around 3.5kft will become broken at all sites. Winds will
be southerly, but then become southwest overnight and then
westerly tomorrow or variable with the front passing through late
tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten





000
FXUS63 KILX 252333
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
633 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clouds
are high based around 7kft and am expecting sct-bkn clouds through
the evening. HRRR still shows some pcpn developing this evening
and moving across central IL, but think it will be near
SPI/DEC only. So will only have VCSH at these two sites and not
add til pcpn begins to showup on radar. Based on satellite loop,
must be some sort of CAP keeping storms from getting out of had.
Overnight once the frontal boundary pushes past the sites, skies
will become scattered. Boundary should push far enough south that
pcpn is not expected at any of the sites tomorrow. However, lower
clouds around 3.5kft will become broken at all sites. Winds will
be southerly, but then become southwest overnight and then
westerly tomorrow or variable with the front passing through late
tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten





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