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000
FXUS63 KILX 031109
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
609 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-55...WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. BY 18Z THE FRONT
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SO DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S NORTH OF THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO
CURRENT THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/MO THIS EVENING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURN TO FAR SW CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEARBY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI AND MI OVERNIGHT INTO TUE SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF CENTRAL IL DRY TONIGHT INTO TUE. COOLER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW CWA WHERE MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND HIGHEST IN SW CWA.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS EAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS SE IL THU MORNING. THE NAM AND GEM
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND QPF FIELDS WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL BLEND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. MAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION TUE NIGHT IS SOUTH OF I-
74. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
ROBINSON LINE TUE NIGHT. HAVE HIGHER POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA
WED/WED NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS FROM NW TO SE BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER HIGHS IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WED/THU DUE
TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND COULD BE EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN MID
70S OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL THU DEPENDING ON SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER NE STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL GIVE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL INTO THIS
WEEKEND. A DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FRI/SAT WITH INCREASING POPS OVER
CENTRAL IL SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER TOP OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. COLD FRONT
HAS ALREADY PUSHED PAST PIA AND BMI...AND SHOULD BE PAST
SPI/DEC/CMI BY ISSUANCE TIME. BESIDES WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...ANY PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SO ONLY
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT TODAY AND THEN CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 031109
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
609 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-55...WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. BY 18Z THE FRONT
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SO DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S NORTH OF THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO
CURRENT THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/MO THIS EVENING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURN TO FAR SW CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEARBY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI AND MI OVERNIGHT INTO TUE SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF CENTRAL IL DRY TONIGHT INTO TUE. COOLER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW CWA WHERE MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND HIGHEST IN SW CWA.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS EAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS SE IL THU MORNING. THE NAM AND GEM
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND QPF FIELDS WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL BLEND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. MAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION TUE NIGHT IS SOUTH OF I-
74. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
ROBINSON LINE TUE NIGHT. HAVE HIGHER POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA
WED/WED NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS FROM NW TO SE BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER HIGHS IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WED/THU DUE
TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND COULD BE EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN MID
70S OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL THU DEPENDING ON SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER NE STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL GIVE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL INTO THIS
WEEKEND. A DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FRI/SAT WITH INCREASING POPS OVER
CENTRAL IL SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER TOP OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. COLD FRONT
HAS ALREADY PUSHED PAST PIA AND BMI...AND SHOULD BE PAST
SPI/DEC/CMI BY ISSUANCE TIME. BESIDES WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...ANY PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SO ONLY
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT TODAY AND THEN CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 030836
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-55...WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. BY 18Z THE FRONT
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SO DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN LOWER DEPOINTS
AND COOLER AIR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH OF THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/MO THIS EVENING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURN TO FAR SW CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEARBY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI AND MI OVERNIGHT INTO TUE SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF CENTRAL IL DRY TONIGHT INTO TUE. COOLER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW CWA WHERE MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND HIGHEST IN SW CWA.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS EAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS SE IL THU MORNING. THE NAM AND GEM
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND QPF FIELDS WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL BLEND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. MAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION TUE NIGHT IS SOUTH OF I-
74. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
ROBINSON LINE TUE NIGHT. HAVE HIGHER POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA
WED/WED NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS FROM NW TO SE BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER HIGHS IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WED/THU DUE
TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND COULD BE EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN MID
70S OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL THU DEPENDING ON SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER NE STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL GIVE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL INTO THIS
WEEKEND. A DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FRI/SAT WITH INCREASING POPS OVER
CENTRAL IL SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER TOP OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 030836
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-55...WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. BY 18Z THE FRONT
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SO DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA...DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN LOWER DEPOINTS
AND COOLER AIR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH OF THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK SIMILAR AND CLOSE TO CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/MO THIS EVENING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURN TO FAR SW CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEARBY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI AND MI OVERNIGHT INTO TUE SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF CENTRAL IL DRY TONIGHT INTO TUE. COOLER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW CWA WHERE MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUE AND HIGHEST IN SW CWA.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS EAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS SE IL THU MORNING. THE NAM AND GEM
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE AND QPF FIELDS WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL BLEND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. MAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION TUE NIGHT IS SOUTH OF I-
74. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
ROBINSON LINE TUE NIGHT. HAVE HIGHER POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA
WED/WED NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS FROM NW TO SE BY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER HIGHS IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WED/THU DUE
TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND COULD BE EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN MID
70S OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL THU DEPENDING ON SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER NE STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL GIVE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SE IL INTO THIS
WEEKEND. A DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FRI/SAT WITH INCREASING POPS OVER
CENTRAL IL SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER TOP OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 030445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 030445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 030445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 030445
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 09-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFFECTING KCMI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN KCMI TAF FROM 08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ARE LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
WINDS SW 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NW 8-10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 030208
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SW WISCONSIN TO SW IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KDSM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...MODELS
GENERALLY WEAKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL IL...FOCUSING LIFT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI STARTING 3-5Z...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRANCE AT THESE
TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SW 10-12 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 9-12Z...BECOMING NW
8-10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 030208
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA
THIS EVENING HAS TRIGGERED SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
IT...APPROACHING AREAS FROM AROUND GALESBURG-LACON NORTHWARD. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 35-40 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...KNOX...STARK...AND MARSHALL COUNTY
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 A.M.
STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALIZED HAIL
RANGING CLOSE TO ONE INCH AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH+ WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL IL MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND I-70
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE THAT FAR SOUTH AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE. HAVE UPDATED FOR TRENDS ON CONVECTIVE LOCATION...AND
FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SW WISCONSIN TO SW IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KDSM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...MODELS
GENERALLY WEAKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL IL...FOCUSING LIFT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI STARTING 3-5Z...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRANCE AT THESE
TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SW 10-12 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 9-12Z...BECOMING NW
8-10 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 022305
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SW WISCONSIN TO SW IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KDSM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...MODELS
GENERALLY WEAKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL IL...FOCUSING LIFT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI STARTING 3-5Z...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRANCE AT THESE
TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SW 10-12 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 9-12Z...BECOMING NW
8-10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 022305
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SW WISCONSIN TO SW IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KDSM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...MODELS
GENERALLY WEAKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL IL...FOCUSING LIFT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI STARTING 3-5Z...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRANCE AT THESE
TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SW 10-12 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 9-12Z...BECOMING NW
8-10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 022001
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 022001
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 021746
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...A MUCH WEAKER
WAVE EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IS
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH NO FOCUSING
MECHANISM PRESENT...ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND HOT DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 021746
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...A MUCH WEAKER
WAVE EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IS
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH NO FOCUSING
MECHANISM PRESENT...ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND HOT DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 021746
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...A MUCH WEAKER
WAVE EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IS
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH NO FOCUSING
MECHANISM PRESENT...ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND HOT DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 021746
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...A MUCH WEAKER
WAVE EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IS
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH NO FOCUSING
MECHANISM PRESENT...ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND HOT DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

1730Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAAA TO EAST OF KSPI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE AND WILL IMPACT KDEC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT KDEC BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MOST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER N/NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY...AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN BY 13Z FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT
KSPI AND KDEC.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 021538
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...A MUCH WEAKER
WAVE EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IS
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS
FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KILX CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH NO FOCUSING
MECHANISM PRESENT...ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND HOT DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PCPN
INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO TIMES OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION AT EACH TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA LOOK
TO BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SO THINK LATER THIS
MORNING STORMS COULD EFFECT EACH SITE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TWO
HOURS. THEN NEXT ROUND WILL BE AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN DUE TO LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR LATER THIS EVENING FOR ALL
SITES. DO NOT SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON VIS OR CIGS BELOW 3KFT SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THINK SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 021146
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PCPN
INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO TIMES OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION AT EACH TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA LOOK
TO BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SO THINK LATER THIS
MORNING STORMS COULD EFFECT EACH SITE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TWO
HOURS. THEN NEXT ROUND WILL BE AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN DUE TO LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR LATER THIS EVENING FOR ALL
SITES. DO NOT SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON VIS OR CIGS BELOW 3KFT SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THINK SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 021146
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PCPN
INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO TIMES OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION AT EACH TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA LOOK
TO BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SO THINK LATER THIS
MORNING STORMS COULD EFFECT EACH SITE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TWO
HOURS. THEN NEXT ROUND WILL BE AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN DUE TO LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR LATER THIS EVENING FOR ALL
SITES. DO NOT SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON VIS OR CIGS BELOW 3KFT SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THINK SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 021146
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PCPN
INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO TIMES OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION AT EACH TAF SITES TODAY. STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA LOOK
TO BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SO THINK LATER THIS
MORNING STORMS COULD EFFECT EACH SITE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TWO
HOURS. THEN NEXT ROUND WILL BE AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN DUE TO LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR LATER THIS EVENING FOR ALL
SITES. DO NOT SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON VIS OR CIGS BELOW 3KFT SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THINK SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 020831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 020831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM EASTERN OK...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS POORLY HANDLED THINGS YESTERDAY/LAST EVENING SO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION FOR TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA AND INTO NEB. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
HIGHEST DWPTS IN IOWA...THINKING IS THAT THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
COULD GET INTO THE CWA SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON/DURING MAX HEATING.
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CWA MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 DURING THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
DURING TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING OVER FROM GALESBURG TO PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON AND
HOOPESTON NORTH WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER NE IL CLOSER TO ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS WI/MI. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO SOUTHEAST IL MON
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF SE IL
BY THEN INTO SE PARTS OF OH/IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH GALESBURG AROUND 65F. HIGHS MON IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 80S BY GALESBURG TO 90F BY LAWRENCEVILLE
WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS FAR SW
CWA CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AREA OVER NORTHERN KY INTO
CENTRAL MO.

00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING MID AND
LATE WORK WEEK AS IL IS ESTABLISHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVES TRACKING EAST NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SW AREAS TUE AND ACROSS AREA BY
WED AND WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THEN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
FROM WED THRU REST OF THE WEEK WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 020453
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 020453
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 020453
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND ARRIVE AT KPIA-KBMI AROUND
17-18Z...CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BRING MORE PRECISE TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS LATER ON.
WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 020155
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST...THEN
EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE PAST CENTRAL IL TO THE NORTH MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR DISRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MINIMAL AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT TERMINALS
KPIA-KBMI AFTER 17Z. WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 020155
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST...THEN
EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE PAST CENTRAL IL TO THE NORTH MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR DISRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MINIMAL AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT TERMINALS
KPIA-KBMI AFTER 17Z. WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 020155
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
EARLY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND I-72
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN/IOWA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROPAGATING ESE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROPAGATE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEAVING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY IN THE MORNING. WITH MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECTING LOWS
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST...THEN
EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE PAST CENTRAL IL TO THE NORTH MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR DISRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MINIMAL AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT TERMINALS
KPIA-KBMI AFTER 17Z. WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 012314
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST...THEN
EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE PAST CENTRAL IL TO THE NORTH MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR DISRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MINIMAL AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT TERMINALS
KPIA-KBMI AFTER 17Z. WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 012314
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS UNTIL 17Z...THEN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS KPIA-KBMI. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST...THEN
EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE PAST CENTRAL IL TO THE NORTH MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON SUNDAY...SO CHANCES FOR DISRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MINIMAL AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT TERMINALS
KPIA-KBMI AFTER 17Z. WINDS SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...4-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 012016
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
316 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REMAIN
WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME SW AT AROUND
5KT ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 012016
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
316 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
EASTWARD...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE RAPID REFRESH ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST BENEATH A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH FLATTEN OUT INTO A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL IN THE
TUE-THU TIMEFRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT...FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO AREAS NW OF THE UPPER IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NW IL
TOWARD EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED T-STORMS NW OF A MACOMB-BLOOMINGTON LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING A QUINCY-LINCOLN-DANVILLE LINE DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.

ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN IN SOUTHERN IL. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A PIECE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND
APPROACHING THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IN SOUTHERN IL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REMAIN
WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME SW AT AROUND
5KT ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 011737
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS ANOTHER WARM/DRY
SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 15Z/10AM TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL ON THE WAY TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REMAIN
WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME SW AT AROUND
5KT ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 011737
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS ANOTHER WARM/DRY
SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 15Z/10AM TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL ON THE WAY TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REMAIN
WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME SW AT AROUND
5KT ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 011519
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS ANOTHER WARM/DRY
SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 15Z/10AM TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL ON THE WAY TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE SITES MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS STORMS
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS
DRIFT OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA...CLOUDS COULD THICKEN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN AT AROUND 15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS ONCE THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 011129
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE SITES MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS STORMS
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS
DRIFT OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA...CLOUDS COULD THICKEN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN AT AROUND 15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS ONCE THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 011129
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE SITES MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS STORMS
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS
DRIFT OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA...CLOUDS COULD THICKEN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN AT AROUND 15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS ONCE THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 011129
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE SITES MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS STORMS
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS
DRIFT OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA...CLOUDS COULD THICKEN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN AT AROUND 15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS ONCE THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 010827
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OUT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AND ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KSPI AND PERHAPS
KDEC. WINDS NW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. SW WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 010827
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OUT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AND ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KSPI AND PERHAPS
KDEC. WINDS NW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. SW WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 010446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OUT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AND ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KSPI AND PERHAPS
KDEC. WINDS NW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. SW WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 010446
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OUT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AND ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KSPI AND PERHAPS
KDEC. WINDS NW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. SW WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 010158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 010158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 010158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 010158
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 312341
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 312341
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. CONVECTION OVER NW
MISSOURI/SW IOWA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KSPI-
KDEC...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WNW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 312017
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU-FIELD REMAINS LARGELY ABSENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS CLOUD TREND FITS VERY WELL WITH THE RAPID
REFRESH...WHICH SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOTALLY DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KCMI BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CLOUDS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 18KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT
LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 312017
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION.  THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST.  MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU-FIELD REMAINS LARGELY ABSENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS CLOUD TREND FITS VERY WELL WITH THE RAPID
REFRESH...WHICH SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOTALLY DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KCMI BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CLOUDS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 18KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT
LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 311755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WISCONSIN/IOWA. SO FAR VERY LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SOME 12Z MODELS ARE STILL
TRYING TO FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS PALTRY AT BEST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT
ALL. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 21Z...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED SO BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. IN
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH PEAK HEATING. FORECAST CAPE VALUES REACH
NEAR 1500 WITH VERY LOW SHEAR. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 80S...WHICH IS AROUND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR US. LONGER RANGE MODELS EXHIBITING
SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST...WITH THE GFS HANGING ON TO THE RIDGE
LONGER...BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
MANY AREAS BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION ISSUES WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODELS DIVERGE. GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS FEATURING
SOME SORT OF MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ROLLING
TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS POP`S ON THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AREA-
WIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE MCS WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA. STRENGTH OF A
SECOND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT IS MUCH WEAKER...AND ONLY THE GFS REALLY
GENERATES ANYTHING IN OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINLY GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES THEN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME MORE OF A QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS OF THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN A CORRIDOR NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF IS THEN MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MID WEEK GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS MAINLY KEEPS US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
COVERAGE BUT NOT AS HIGH WITH THE POP`S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU-FIELD REMAINS LARGELY ABSENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS CLOUD TREND FITS VERY WELL WITH THE RAPID
REFRESH...WHICH SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOTALLY DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KCMI BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CLOUDS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 18KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT
LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES




000
FXUS63 KILX 311755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WISCONSIN/IOWA. SO FAR VERY LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SOME 12Z MODELS ARE STILL
TRYING TO FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS PALTRY AT BEST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT
ALL. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 21Z...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED SO BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. IN
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH PEAK HEATING. FORECAST CAPE VALUES REACH
NEAR 1500 WITH VERY LOW SHEAR. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 80S...WHICH IS AROUND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR US. LONGER RANGE MODELS EXHIBITING
SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST...WITH THE GFS HANGING ON TO THE RIDGE
LONGER...BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
MANY AREAS BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION ISSUES WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODELS DIVERGE. GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS FEATURING
SOME SORT OF MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ROLLING
TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS POP`S ON THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AREA-
WIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE MCS WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA. STRENGTH OF A
SECOND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT IS MUCH WEAKER...AND ONLY THE GFS REALLY
GENERATES ANYTHING IN OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINLY GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES THEN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME MORE OF A QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS OF THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN A CORRIDOR NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF IS THEN MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MID WEEK GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS MAINLY KEEPS US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
COVERAGE BUT NOT AS HIGH WITH THE POP`S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU-FIELD REMAINS LARGELY ABSENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS CLOUD TREND FITS VERY WELL WITH THE RAPID
REFRESH...WHICH SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOTALLY DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KCMI BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CLOUDS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 18KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT
LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES





000
FXUS63 KILX 311531
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WISCONSIN/IOWA. SO FAR VERY LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SOME 12Z MODELS ARE STILL
TRYING TO FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS PALTRY AT BEST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT
ALL. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 21Z...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED SO BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. IN
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH PEAK HEATING. FORECAST CAPE VALUES REACH
NEAR 1500 WITH VERY LOW SHEAR. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 80S...WHICH IS AROUND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR US. LONGER RANGE MODELS EXHIBITING
SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST...WITH THE GFS HANGING ON TO THE RIDGE
LONGER...BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
MANY AREAS BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION ISSUES WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODELS DIVERGE. GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS FEATURING
SOME SORT OF MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ROLLING
TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS POP`S ON THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AREA-
WIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE MCS WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA. STRENGTH OF A
SECOND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT IS MUCH WEAKER...AND ONLY THE GFS REALLY
GENERATES ANYTHING IN OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINLY GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES THEN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME MORE OF A QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS OF THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN A CORRIDOR NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF IS THEN MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MID WEEK GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS MAINLY KEEPS US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
COVERAGE BUT NOT AS HIGH WITH THE POP`S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH FORCING WEAK AND VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...BELIEVE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP THE VCTS AT
ALL SITES FOR WHEN BEST CHANCE IS. SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 311531
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WISCONSIN/IOWA. SO FAR VERY LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SOME 12Z MODELS ARE STILL
TRYING TO FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS PALTRY AT BEST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT
ALL. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 21Z...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED SO BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. IN
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH PEAK HEATING. FORECAST CAPE VALUES REACH
NEAR 1500 WITH VERY LOW SHEAR. SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 80S...WHICH IS AROUND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR US. LONGER RANGE MODELS EXHIBITING
SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST...WITH THE GFS HANGING ON TO THE RIDGE
LONGER...BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
MANY AREAS BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION ISSUES WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODELS DIVERGE. GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS FEATURING
SOME SORT OF MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ROLLING
TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS POP`S ON THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AREA-
WIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE MCS WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA. STRENGTH OF A
SECOND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT IS MUCH WEAKER...AND ONLY THE GFS REALLY
GENERATES ANYTHING IN OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINLY GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES THEN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME MORE OF A QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS OF THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN A CORRIDOR NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF IS THEN MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH MID WEEK GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHILE THE GFS MAINLY KEEPS US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
COVERAGE BUT NOT AS HIGH WITH THE POP`S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH FORCING WEAK AND VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...BELIEVE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP THE VCTS AT
ALL SITES FOR WHEN BEST CHANCE IS. SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN




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