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000
FXUS63 KILX 221132
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sprawling ridge of high pressure extends from the high pressure
center over northeast Ontario into the southern Plains. The current
position of the ridge cuts across west-central Illinois. This
surface ridge, and driving upper ridge, will slowly drift east today
across the forecast area. The associated air mass is quite dry and
cloud cover today should be minimal at best. Our main concern is how
warm it will get today. Most of the guidance has today`s high
temperatures cooler than yesterday. Have a hard time seeing how this
would occur as full sun and a dry air mass should promote rapid
warming from the cool starting temperatures. Also, in the western
portion of the forecast area, low level WAA/return flow on the back
side of the surface ridge is expected to begin later today. So, plan
to boost forecast highs a few degrees above the model consensus,
which results in temperatures similar to yesterday. It should be
noted that the guidance was too cool yesterday too.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery showing two upper waves of
interest, one across Montana and another extending from Wyoming
southwest into New Mexico. The evening models continue to try and
unify this into a single wave mid week over the Plains. Large upper
low currently just west of Washington DC only makes slow eastward
progress the next couple days, so the models have been trending a
bit slower with the progression of the incoming wave. As to how much
of the rain makes it over here, the NAM continues to be more of the
odd model out with the rain largely limited to near the Great Lakes
by afternoon. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models are more wet, but
largely keep the rain across the west half of the CWA during the day
and quickly lifting the area northeast in the evening. Forecast
soundings for Champaign are still fairly dry below 600 mb through
the afternoon except off the Canadian model, so will keep the rain
our of the forecast for the southeast third of CWA during the day.
Mentionable rain in the worded forecasts Thursday evening will just
be in areas from Bloomington to Danville.

Focus into the weekend is with the warming temperatures, as upper
ridge builds just east of the Rockies. 850 mb temperatures progged
to reach the 15C range off both the GFS and ECMWF models by late
Sunday afternoon, and will maintain highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s for the weekend, with the warmest highs occurring into Monday.

Next item of concern is with a digging wave across the Plains early
next week. The longer range models are not really in agreement with
this feature beyond Monday evening, as the ECMWF digs the wave much
further south before arriving in Illinois on Tuesday. Consequently,
its surface storm development is much wetter and slower. The GFS
focuses most of the wave across the upper Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday afternoon with more of a split upper flow developing, and
most of its precipitation is closer to the surface low which lifts
northeast toward Lake Superior. Have introduced some rain chances
for Tuesday as even the GFS solution would produce at least some
scattered showers, but will limit them to around 30% at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. The possible
exception to this would be an hour or two of patchy MVFR fog early
this morning. High pressure continues to dominate the local
weather, with light/variable winds and mostly clear skies to start
the day. The high will drift east by tonight, with winds turning
more to the southeast. In addition, high clouds will begin spilling
in from the west after midnight ahead of an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 220751
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sprawling ridge of high pressure extends from the high pressure
center over northeast Ontario into the southern Plains. The current
position of the ridge cuts across west-central Illinois. This
surface ridge, and driving upper ridge, will slowly drift east today
across the forecast area. The associated air mass is quite dry and
cloud cover today should be minimal at best. Our main concern is how
warm it will get today. Most of the guidance has today`s high
temperatures cooler than yesterday. Have a hard time seeing how this
would occur as full sun and a dry air mass should promote rapid
warming from the cool starting temperatures. Also, in the western
portion of the forecast area, low level WAA/return flow on the back
side of the surface ridge is expected to begin later today. So, plan
to boost forecast highs a few degrees above the model consensus,
which results in temperatures similar to yesterday. It should be
noted that the guidance was too cool yesterday too.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery showing two upper waves of
interest, one across Montana and another extending from Wyoming
southwest into New Mexico. The evening models continue to try and
unify this into a single wave mid week over the Plains. Large upper
low currently just west of Washington DC only makes slow eastward
progress the next couple days, so the models have been trending a
bit slower with the progression of the incoming wave. As to how much
of the rain makes it over here, the NAM continues to be more of the
odd model out with the rain largely limited to near the Great Lakes
by afternoon. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models are more wet, but
largely keep the rain across the west half of the CWA during the day
and quickly lifting the area northeast in the evening. Forecast
soundings for Champaign are still fairly dry below 600 mb through
the afternoon except off the Canadian model, so will keep the rain
our of the forecast for the southeast third of CWA during the day.
Mentionable rain in the worded forecasts Thursday evening will just
be in areas from Bloomington to Danville.

Focus into the weekend is with the warming temperatures, as upper
ridge builds just east of the Rockies. 850 mb temperatures progged
to reach the 15C range off both the GFS and ECMWF models by late
Sunday afternoon, and will maintain highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s for the weekend, with the warmest highs occurring into Monday.

Next item of concern is with a digging wave across the Plains early
next week. The longer range models are not really in agreement with
this feature beyond Monday evening, as the ECMWF digs the wave much
further south before arriving in Illinois on Tuesday. Consequently,
its surface storm development is much wetter and slower. The GFS
focuses most of the wave across the upper Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday afternoon with more of a split upper flow developing, and
most of its precipitation is closer to the surface low which lifts
northeast toward Lake Superior. Have introduced some rain chances
for Tuesday as even the GFS solution would produce at least some
scattered showers, but will limit them to around 30% at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Areas of MVFR cigs will continue to affect KPRG-KCMI-KBMI
northward until 12z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected for
the next 24 hours as a 500 mb ridge axis approaches from the
west. Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring
light winds veering from northeasterly to southeasterly over the
next 24 hours. Low level moisture indicates fog possible
overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog thin,
generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have continued
temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 220441
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure continues to settle over Illinois this
evening while a 500 mb high pressure ridge approaches from the
west. As a result...skies continue to clear over east central
portions of the state while clear skies remain to the west.
Pressure gradients remain strong enough for persistent light
northeast winds. Overnight, patchy fog development over portions
of east central Illinois still looks reasonable given dewpoints
in the low 40s with expected lows in the upper 30s, so forecast
continues to show patchy fog in this area. Only changes this
evening have been to adjust for cloud cover dissipating slower
than expected from around Champaign eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Areas of MVFR cigs will continue to affect KPRG-KCMI-KBMI
northward until 12z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected for
the next 24 hours as a 500 mb ridge axis approaches from the
west. Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring
light winds veering from northeasterly to southeasterly over the
next 24 hours. Low level moisture indicates fog possible
overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog thin,
generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have continued
temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 220441
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure continues to settle over Illinois this
evening while a 500 mb high pressure ridge approaches from the
west. As a result...skies continue to clear over east central
portions of the state while clear skies remain to the west.
Pressure gradients remain strong enough for persistent light
northeast winds. Overnight, patchy fog development over portions
of east central Illinois still looks reasonable given dewpoints
in the low 40s with expected lows in the upper 30s, so forecast
continues to show patchy fog in this area. Only changes this
evening have been to adjust for cloud cover dissipating slower
than expected from around Champaign eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Areas of MVFR cigs will continue to affect KPRG-KCMI-KBMI
northward until 12z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected for
the next 24 hours as a 500 mb ridge axis approaches from the
west. Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring
light winds veering from northeasterly to southeasterly over the
next 24 hours. Low level moisture indicates fog possible
overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog thin,
generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have continued
temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 220151
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure continues to settle over Illinois this
evening while a 500 mb high pressure ridge approaches from the
west. As a result...skies continue to clear over east central
portions of the state while clear skies remain to the west.
Pressure gradients remain strong enough for persistent light
northeast winds. Overnight, patchy fog development over portions
of east central Illinois still looks reasonable given dewpoints
in the low 40s with expected lows in the upper 30s, so forecast
continues to show patchy fog in this area. Only changes this
evening have been to adjust for cloud cover dissipating slower
than expected from around Champaign eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring light
winds veering to southeasterly over the next 24 hours. Skies
already clear west of KCMI-KLWV, and sct-bkn040 skies to the east
expected to clear by 04Z. Low level moisture indicates fog
possible overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog
thin, generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have
continued temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 212311
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring light
winds veering to southeasterly over the next 24 hours. Skies
already clear west of KCMI-KLWV, and sct-bkn040 skies to the east
expected to clear by 04Z. Low level moisture indicates fog
possible overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog
thin, generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have
continued temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 212311
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure settling over Illinois will bring light
winds veering to southeasterly over the next 24 hours. Skies
already clear west of KCMI-KLWV, and sct-bkn040 skies to the east
expected to clear by 04Z. Low level moisture indicates fog
possible overnight, however persistent light winds should keep fog
thin, generally no worse than MVFR visibility. Therefore, have
continued temporary MVFR fog from 10Z-12Z in TAFS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 211951
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Deep low over Lake Erie this afternoon, with north-northwesterly
flow over Illinois.  Cool air advecting in and some cloud cover
mostly to the north and the east.  Afternoon cu will clear shortly
before sunset, leaving the more persistent clouds out of ILX
territory.  Clearing overnight with light winds will allow some
pretty efficient radiational cooling and the temps will drop into
the upper 30s.  Forecast lows are in the middle of the MOS guidance
this afternoon. Shallow moisture will further mix out as the
afternoon progresses and will have to monitor for xover temps this
evening with regards to fog development.  Biggest concern will be in
the eastern portion of the CWA with dwpts still in the 40s and slow
to mix out with so many clouds aloft.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue in good agreement with the mid level ridging
tracking toward the area tomorrow and to the east of IL by Thur
morning. This will keep pleasant and dry weather in the area through
tomorrow night. Then, I mid level trough and associated surface
front will push into the area on Thursday and bring a chance of
showers to the CWA for Thursday through Thursday evening. This front
will push into the sfc high pressure area and pinch it off with some
of the ridging going south. The weather system will also weaken some
as it moves into the area and this will lead to the pcpn diminishing
while moving east. Once this system weakens and moves east of IL,
dry weather will return for the rest of the week.

Temps through the short term will start cool but then warm back to
close to normal for Friday.

A pleasant weekend is in store for central and southeast Illinois as
high pressure returns with dry and warmer conditions. Mid level
ridging will also be in place for the weekend and the beginning of
next week. Unfortunately, this ridge will be short lived and another
weather system is forecast to move toward the are from the west.
Models handle this system similarly and bring pcpn chances into the
area for mainly Monday night. Pops will remain small until models
have a better handle on the moisture return ahead of the system.

Temps will very warm through Monday, for the later part of October,
but then cool-down for Tue as the next system moves through the
area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure and northerly winds dominating the rest of the
afternoon becoming more easterly after sunset. Scattered cu for
east central Illinois, bkn furthest to the east, keeping a cig in
place for CMI at 4k ft. Dewpoints in the 40s now...and though some
mix out is expected, lows under clear skies expected to drop into
the upper 30s/near 40. As a result, MVFR fog mentioned in the
forecast for now.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 211725
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds keeping
temps a little cooler than yesterday. Another shortwave diving
into the broader scale trof over the NE clipping the far east with
some sct clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. No updates
to the forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure and northerly winds dominating the rest of the
afternoon becoming more easterly after sunset. Scattered cu for
east central Illinois, bkn furthest to the east, keeping a cig in
place for CMI at 4k ft. Dewpoints in the 40s now...and though some
mix out is expected, lows under clear skies expected to drop into
the upper 30s/near 40. As a result, MVFR fog mentioned in the
forecast for now.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 211547
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds keeping
temps a little cooler than yesterday. Another shortwave diving
into the broader scale trof over the NE clipping the far east with
some sct clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. No updates
to the forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 211547
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds keeping
temps a little cooler than yesterday. Another shortwave diving
into the broader scale trof over the NE clipping the far east with
some sct clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. No updates
to the forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 211547
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds keeping
temps a little cooler than yesterday. Another shortwave diving
into the broader scale trof over the NE clipping the far east with
some sct clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. No updates
to the forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211547
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds keeping
temps a little cooler than yesterday. Another shortwave diving
into the broader scale trof over the NE clipping the far east with
some sct clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. No updates
to the forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211142
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211142
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 211142
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 211142
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR fog early this morning and late
tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF valid time across the central Illinois terminals. This quiet
weather will be courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure. The
high will also support winds being on the light side, from a
northerly direction today and trending more easterly tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak









000
FXUS63 KILX 210740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 210004
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
704 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 210004
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
704 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 201942
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 201942
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 201740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes with the trof axis/weak boundary reaching
back across ILX this morning. Very narrow line of showers
developing with some assist from the low level jet this morning
over east central Illinois along the Indiana border. Northwesterly
flow dominating the state today with plenty of sunshine warming
temps up to near climate normals. Some minor tweaks to sct cloud
cover through the afternoon... but no large scale changes to the
forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 201740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes with the trof axis/weak boundary reaching
back across ILX this morning. Very narrow line of showers
developing with some assist from the low level jet this morning
over east central Illinois along the Indiana border. Northwesterly
flow dominating the state today with plenty of sunshine warming
temps up to near climate normals. Some minor tweaks to sct cloud
cover through the afternoon... but no large scale changes to the
forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 201536
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes with the trof axis/weak boundary reaching
back across ILX this morning. Very narrow line of showers
developing with some assist from the low level jet this morning
over east central Illinois along the Indiana border. Northwesterly
flow dominating the state today with plenty of sunshine warming
temps up to near climate normals. Some minor tweaks to sct cloud
cover through the afternoon... but no large scale changes to the
forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. A cold front will swing
through the area this morning, with winds shifting from southwest
to northwest. Minimal cloud cover is expected overall, but will
need to keep an eye on clouds dropping south out of the upper
Great Lakes and central Canada. Most guidance has these low clouds
staying north/east of the terminals, but it will likely be a close
call, especially at KCMI.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 201536
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes with the trof axis/weak boundary reaching
back across ILX this morning. Very narrow line of showers
developing with some assist from the low level jet this morning
over east central Illinois along the Indiana border. Northwesterly
flow dominating the state today with plenty of sunshine warming
temps up to near climate normals. Some minor tweaks to sct cloud
cover through the afternoon... but no large scale changes to the
forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. A cold front will swing
through the area this morning, with winds shifting from southwest
to northwest. Minimal cloud cover is expected overall, but will
need to keep an eye on clouds dropping south out of the upper
Great Lakes and central Canada. Most guidance has these low clouds
staying north/east of the terminals, but it will likely be a close
call, especially at KCMI.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 201201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
701 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. A cold front will swing
through the area this morning, with winds shifting from southwest
to northwest. Minimal cloud cover is expected overall, but will
need to keep an eye on clouds dropping south out of the upper
Great Lakes and central Canada. Most guidance has these low clouds
staying north/east of the terminals, but it will likely be a close
call, especially at KCMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








000
FXUS63 KILX 201201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
701 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. A cold front will swing
through the area this morning, with winds shifting from southwest
to northwest. Minimal cloud cover is expected overall, but will
need to keep an eye on clouds dropping south out of the upper
Great Lakes and central Canada. Most guidance has these low clouds
staying north/east of the terminals, but it will likely be a close
call, especially at KCMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 200729
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over eastern Lake
Superior, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the
central Plains. This low/front is being driven by a potent short
wave diving southeast across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes.
However, despite the good forcing these features should provide, the
air mass the system is moving through is very dry. In fact, at the
moment, there is little/no cloud cover along the cold front once you
move away from the immediate vicinity of the surface low. There is
respectable WAA/isentropic lift over the southeast 1/3 of Illinois
ahead of the cold front, and this is resulting in a few sprinkles
breaking through from time to time from an AC deck around 10k feet.
This enhanced warm advection regime should shift south/east of the
forecast area by shortly after sunrise. So, do not expect measurable
rainfall ahead of the front today, although a few sprinkles will be
possible south of I-70 into the mid-morning hours.

The cold front should have cleared the forecast area by early
afternoon, with temperatures staying steady or slowly falling in its
wake. A strong low level inversion that is currently in place should
quickly erode in the post frontal cold advection. This may result in
a few hours of gusty northwest winds this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Once the current system passes, the remainder of the week looks to
be fairly quiet. The upper ridge currently along the east slopes of
the Rockies will shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week, with dry weather prevailing. The main forecast issue involves
Thursday, as the ridge erodes between an incoming wave from the
northern Plains, and a large upper low that will slowly wobble
through the mid-Atlantic states. The general consensus over the last
few model runs was that the associated shower activity would have
difficulty crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, but the
latest GFS and ECMWF do bring some diminishing showers across the
north half of the state Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper low
develops and slides into northern Wisconsin. Have kept the forecast
dry for now, but will monitor to see if this is a persistent trend
before introducing into the forecast.

A nice warming trend is on tap toward late week, as thermal ridging
extends east from the central Plains. 850 mb temperatures progged to
rise to around 16C by Saturday afternoon, which would bring surface
temperatures to around 70 degrees in many areas.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. The rest
of the night, a band of AC and cirrus will continue to advance
ESE across the area. PIA should be north of the clouds for the
most part, while BMI/SPI will be on the northern periphery.
DEC/CMI will be closer to some possible sprinkles as the first of
two shortwaves enhances lift across our southeast area. There
remains some potential for cloud heights to approach MVFR for DEC
and CMI late tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the
second trough, but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame
should be around 3500-4000 FT. Forecast soundings show an increase
of moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level tomorrow afternoon, so periodic
lower clouds will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 200457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A band of mid and high clouds will progress to the ESE across IL
the rest of the evening and just after midnight. The clouds are
associated with a weak shortwave in the 500mb flow. Moisture will
be scarce, so precip will be limited, and mainly confined to areas
southeast of a line from Taylorville to Paris after 08z/2am
tonight. A stronger shortwave arriving with the upper trough axis
tomorrow will help keep slight precip chances in roughly that
same area through 18z/1pm tomorrow. Sprinkles and light showers
will be the main result, with no thunder expected.

As for temps tonight, a continuation of the SW surface winds will
provide slightly warmer conditions, with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s in most areas. The warm surge will continue through the
morning tomorrow, helping push high temps into the mid to upper
60s, before the cold front passes and winds shift to the WNW and
cooling begins.

Only minor adjustments were needed to the sky and hourly temp
forecasts, so no formal product updates will be needed this eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. The rest
of the night, a band of AC and cirrus will continue to advance
ESE across the area. PIA should be north of the clouds for the
most part, while BMI/SPI will be on the northern periphery.
DEC/CMI will be closer to some possible sprinkles as the first of
two shortwaves enhances lift across our southeast area. There
remains some potential for cloud heights to approach MVFR for DEC
and CMI late tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the
second trough, but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame
should be around 3500-4000 FT. Forecast soundings show an increase
of moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level tomorrow afternoon, so periodic
lower clouds will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 200457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A band of mid and high clouds will progress to the ESE across IL
the rest of the evening and just after midnight. The clouds are
associated with a weak shortwave in the 500mb flow. Moisture will
be scarce, so precip will be limited, and mainly confined to areas
southeast of a line from Taylorville to Paris after 08z/2am
tonight. A stronger shortwave arriving with the upper trough axis
tomorrow will help keep slight precip chances in roughly that
same area through 18z/1pm tomorrow. Sprinkles and light showers
will be the main result, with no thunder expected.

As for temps tonight, a continuation of the SW surface winds will
provide slightly warmer conditions, with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s in most areas. The warm surge will continue through the
morning tomorrow, helping push high temps into the mid to upper
60s, before the cold front passes and winds shift to the WNW and
cooling begins.

Only minor adjustments were needed to the sky and hourly temp
forecasts, so no formal product updates will be needed this eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. The rest
of the night, a band of AC and cirrus will continue to advance
ESE across the area. PIA should be north of the clouds for the
most part, while BMI/SPI will be on the northern periphery.
DEC/CMI will be closer to some possible sprinkles as the first of
two shortwaves enhances lift across our southeast area. There
remains some potential for cloud heights to approach MVFR for DEC
and CMI late tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the
second trough, but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame
should be around 3500-4000 FT. Forecast soundings show an increase
of moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level tomorrow afternoon, so periodic
lower clouds will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 200207
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A band of mid and high clouds will progress to the ESE across IL
the rest of the evening and just after midnight. The clouds are
associated with a weak shortwave in the 500mb flow. Moisture will
be scarce, so precip will be limited, and mainly confined to areas
southeast of a line from Taylorville to Paris after 08z/2am
tonight. A stronger shortwave arriving with the upper trough axis
tomorrow will help keep slight precip chances in roughly that
same area through 18z/1pm tomorrow. Sprinkles and light showers
will be the main result, with no thunder expected.

As for temps tonight, a continuation of the SW surface winds will
provide slightly warmer conditions, with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s in most areas. The warm surge will continue through the
morning tomorrow, helping push high temps into the mid to upper
60s, before the cold front passes and winds shift to the WNW and
cooling begins.

Only minor adjustments were needed to the sky and hourly temp
forecasts, so no formal product updates will be needed this eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 200207
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A band of mid and high clouds will progress to the ESE across IL
the rest of the evening and just after midnight. The clouds are
associated with a weak shortwave in the 500mb flow. Moisture will
be scarce, so precip will be limited, and mainly confined to areas
southeast of a line from Taylorville to Paris after 08z/2am
tonight. A stronger shortwave arriving with the upper trough axis
tomorrow will help keep slight precip chances in roughly that
same area through 18z/1pm tomorrow. Sprinkles and light showers
will be the main result, with no thunder expected.

As for temps tonight, a continuation of the SW surface winds will
provide slightly warmer conditions, with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s in most areas. The warm surge will continue through the
morning tomorrow, helping push high temps into the mid to upper
60s, before the cold front passes and winds shift to the WNW and
cooling begins.

Only minor adjustments were needed to the sky and hourly temp
forecasts, so no formal product updates will be needed this eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 192359
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 192359
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 192359
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 192359
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours despite a
surface trough forecast to move across the area tomorrow. This
evening, a band of AC and Cirrus will advance across the terminals,
with the lowest clouds around 9K FT. Cloud heights will approach
MVFR later tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the trough,
but the lowest cloud heights in that time frame should be around
3500 FT. Forecast soundings show moisture in the 3.5-5K ft level
will linger into the afternoon, so periodic lower clouds will be
possible.

Winds will start out SW from 7-9KT, then become W-NW tomorrow
morning behind the surface trough while increasing to 10-12kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 191935
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes









000
FXUS63 KILX 191935
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it.  Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today.  18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor.  Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east.  Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.

Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba.  As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning.  Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development.  Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight.  May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.

Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 191734
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.

Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.

Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 191734
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.

Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.

Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 191456
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.

Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.

Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Light/variable
winds to start the day will increase in speed and shift to the
southwest as a ridge of high pressure pushes east of the area. A
disturbance will move across the area late tonight. While a light
shower can`t be ruled out, the chances are too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak







000
FXUS63 KILX 191456
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.

Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.

Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Aside from some patchy MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Light/variable
winds to start the day will increase in speed and shift to the
southwest as a ridge of high pressure pushes east of the area. A
disturbance will move across the area late tonight. While a light
shower can`t be ruled out, the chances are too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak








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