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000
FXUS63 KILX 010204
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A break in the showers and storms is expected for the rest of the
evening, before a cold front pushes across Illinois later tonight
into Wednesday morning. Some brief clearing in the clouds south of
I-72 should fill back in again as the pre-frontal airmass begins
to lift. A line of showers/storms are expected to progress from
west to east across the area starting after midnight west of the
Illinois river. By sunrise, the HRRR is indicating that precip
should be mainly confined to areas east of I-55. However, the RAP
is forecasting a few post-frontal showers lingering as far west as
the Illinois river through mid-morning. The GFS20, NAM20 and ECMWF
also linger precip east of the IL river through the day tomorrow
as well. Have reduced evening PoPs and kept the increasing PoPs
west of I-55 after midnight.

Clouds will minimize the diurnal temp swing overnight, but some
pockets of clearing could allow for lows to dip at times. Have
kept most low temps in the mid 60s, with upper 60s south of I-70.

Winds will remain relatively light outside of any showers/storms,
with directions generally southeast until frontal passage, then
shifting westerly.

Main updates this evening were to the short term Precip/PoPs, with
minor changes to temps/dewpoints/clouds. Updated forecast info is
already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western half of the CWA
this morning became more scattered in the afternoon, as the earlier
MCV continues to weaken as it lifts across central Illinois. Earlier
outflow boundary made it all the way over to I-57 before it started
to wash out, and is helping to trigger some storms north of Rantoul
and Danville. The rain significantly dropped temperatures, but have
recovered back into the 80s around Springfield and Danville.
Temperatures over the far southeast CWA have reached close to 90
degrees, where skies have been at least partly sunny through the
day.

Scattered, disorganized showers and storms will continue to be
possible across mainly the western half from the CWA early this
evening, before some diminishing trends with loss of daytime
heating. However, the main cold front is currently tracking across
central Iowa, with convection lined up nicely along the boundary.
HRRR model brings the front across the Illinois border very late
this evening and near Peoria by about 3-4 am, so PoP`s ramp up
again late evening and overnight from the west. The eastern CWA
will see better chances of rain very late in the night, but more
likely Wednesday morning as the front gets closer. Temperatures
overnight should be relatively uniform over the CWA, mainly in the
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement with respect to the main
features expected to impact the forecast area over the next several
days. The main trends noted since yesterday are a slightly faster
cold frontal passage tomorrow, and a bit more phasing with/influence
from a southern stream wave as a northern stream wave digs across
the area this weekend.

The most widespread chances of shower/storms this week will occur
tomorrow as a cold front swings through the area. This front will be
driven by a strong wave, currently centered over the northern
Plains/southern Canadian Prairies, as it shears east along the
U.S./Canada border. While some spotty severe storms can not be ruled
out with the frontal passage and pre-frontal 1000-2000 CAPE values,
shear profiles are forecast to remain weak and should preclude
significant storm organization/severity.

Mostly dry and slightly cooler conditions are expected behind the
front later Wednesday night into Friday, courtesy of neutral upper-
level flow and surface high pressure. Then, a northern stream wave
dives southeast from Canada into the Great Lakes region over the
weekend. This approach/passage of this wave will be accompanied by a
risk of shower/storms. While earlier model runs suggests the
northern portion of the forecast area would be more favored for
rainfall due to its closer proximity to the wave, current runs phase
this system more with a southern stream wave that will slowly be
making its way across the southern plains. The at least partial
phasing of these systems will bring moisture up from the south as
well, resulting in most of the forecast area seeing a decent chance
of showers/storms at some point over the weekend. Drier weather
returns to start the next work week as these waves push east of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An outflow boundary moving north after later afternoon convection
has pushed through all TAF sites, just reaching PIA in the last 30
minutes. The result will be a few hours of variable winds due to
the boundary passage, then winds should return to a south-
southeasterly direction by mid-evening at all terminal sites.

Showers and isolated storms will affect mainly the northern TAFs
along I-74, where pockets of convection continue to fester into
the evening. SPI and DEC should generally be done with precip for
the evening. Thunder appears limited, with PIA the only airport
near any updrafts with 50+ dbz, so VCTS was only included there at
TAF start time. A break in the precip appears likely for mid to
late evening. Then the HRRR is advertising the approach of a
frontal boundary late tonight, triggering additional showers and
storms after 09z or so. That area of convection may be limited to
the western terminals, based on HRRR output diminishing precip
coverage after the front passes the Illinois river.

As the front pushes east through the forecast area, showers and
storms will be possible, so VCTS was included at all terminals
through at least early afternoon, with the eastern TAFS of DEC and
CMI carrying thunder through 00z/7pm Wed.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon





000
FXUS63 KILX 311959
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western half of the CWA
this morning became more scattered in the afternoon, as the earlier
MCV continues to weaken as it lifts across central Illinois. Earlier
outflow boundary made it all the way over to I-57 before it started
to wash out, and is helping to trigger some storms north of Rantoul
and Danville. The rain significantly dropped temperatures, but have
recovered back into the 80s around Springfield and Danville.
Temperatures over the far southeast CWA have reached close to 90
degrees, where skies have been at least partly sunny through the
day.

Scattered, disorganized showers and storms will continue to be
possible across mainly the western half from the CWA early this
evening, before some diminishment with loss of daytime heating.
However, the main cold front is currently tracking across central
Iowa, with convection lined up nicely along the boundary. HRRR model
brings the front across the Illinois border very late this evening
and near Peoria by about 3-4 am, so PoP`s ramp up again late evening
and overnight from the west. The eastern CWA will see better chances
of rain very late in the night, but more likely Wednesday morning as
the front gets closer. Temperatures overnight should be relatively
uniform over the CWA, mainly in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement with respect to the main
features expected to impact the forecast area over the next several
days. The main trends noted since yesterday are a slightly faster
cold frontal passage tomorrow, and a bit more phasing with/influence
from a southern stream wave as a northern stream wave digs across
the area this weekend.

The most widespread chances of shower/storms this week will occur
tomorrow as a cold front swings through the area. This front will be
driven by a strong wave, currently centered over the northern
Plains/southern Canadian Prairies, as it shears east along the
U.S./Canada border. While some spotty severe storms can not be ruled
out with the frontal passage and pre-frontal 1000-2000 CAPE values,
shear profiles are forecast to remain weak and should preclude
significant storm organization/severity.

Mostly dry and slightly cooler conditions are expected behind the
front later Wednesday night into Friday, courtesy of neutral upper-
level flow and surface high pressure. Then, a northern stream wave
dives southeast from Canada into the Great Lakes region over the
weekend. This approach/passage of this wave will be accompanied by a
risk of shower/storms. While earlier model runs suggests the
northern portion of the forecast area would be more favored for
rainfall due to its closer proximity to the wave, current runs phase
this system more with a southern stream wave that will slowly be
making its way across the southern plains. The at least partial
phasing of these systems will bring moisture up from the south as
well, resulting in most of the forecast area seeing a decent chance
of showers/storms at some point over the weekend. Drier weather
returns to start the next work week as these waves push east of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Pronounced outflow boundary just went through KBMI and will be at
KCMI by 1830Z, producing a wind shift and gusts of 15-20 knots for
about an hour, before winds revert to the south again. Afternoon
TAF forecast is filled with scattered convection in an environment
that favors random development and collapse of thunderstorms, so
will only cover it with VCTS initially and then update once any
short-term trends can be inferred at any given site. Convection
should diminish to scattered showers this evening. Additional
thunderstorms possible late in the night, as a cold front moves in
from the west. Additional storms possible Wednesday morning as the
front moves through, with the expected location of the front near
or just west of a KBMI-KSPI line at 18Z Wednesday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 311731
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Remnants of the Missouri MCV located between Springfield and St.
Louis late this morning per water vapor imagery. Cluster of
showers and scattered thunderstorms accompanying it, with some
heavier rains in southeast Morgan County. Earlier storms further
north have produced 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in parts of Woodford and
Marshall Counties. Latest HRRR has been trending to fill in these
two areas with time during the late morning, with some breaks in
the afternoon across the western CWA until convection starts to
increase ahead of the cold front. Have made some updates to the
hourly PoP`s to account for the HRRR trends, although the overall
values did not change too much.

Temperatures are going to be rather tricky today with the
convection. 9:30 am observation from Litchfield, under the
MCV/storm cluster, showed temperatures had dropped down to 64
degrees, but some lower 80s are already showing up in the far
eastern CWA, especially south of I-70 where skies have been partly
to mostly sunny. Updated the hourly temperatures and incorporated
the HRRR trends, which shows some decrease for the first couple
hours once the rain starts, then a late rebound across the western
CWA. Areas near the Indiana border least likely to be affected,
and kept afternoon temperatures generally in the 85-87 degree
range.

Updated zones/grids have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Remnant MCV over south central Missouri will migrate slowly
northeast today and bring our area more cloud cover than what we saw
yesterday along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Already
seeing some isolated convection developing just to our north with
radar mosaics to our south indicating an area of mostly showers
moving northeast out of Missouri. Forecast soundings today very
similar to what we saw yesterday with 0-6km shear not much more than
20 kts with mixed layer capes up to 1500 j/kg and poor 700-500 mb
lapse rates. The wind profile today once again looking more like the
middle of July, as the steering flow will be around 10 kts,
suggesting any storm that does develop will be slow moving and
capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time, but
very localized in nature. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler
than what we saw yesterday with the increase in cloud cover, but
forecast soundings indicate that if we experience any significant
breaks in the clouds today, the temperature will have little problem
getting into at least the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Still a bit of a summery pattern and warm for the first part
of the week.  Showers/thunderstorm chances increasing with proximity
to approaching boundary from the west as another low digs in over
the Northern Plains and drags a front through the Midwest.
Models have been increasingly consistent with handling the
boundary...but the precip timing with the smaller showers out ahead
of the system tonight remains a bit loose.  Considering current
situation is not necessarily handled well, this evening will be
influenced by mesoscale features, but have left pops highest in the
west with the approach of the sfc trof. Temperatures remain warm
through the forecast.  A few degrees cooler behind the boundary, but
not by much and not for long...as southerly flow at the sfc
reestablishes and sets up WAA briefly going into next weekend. That
being said, Wed high temperatures are going to be partially
dependent on breaks in the clouds and how quickly they can climb
before rain dominates the region. Plenty of warm air lending itself
to moderately unstable air to work with the thunderstorms on Wed/Wed
night...but weak flow pattern aloft will limit the shear available
for severe weather development.

On the other side of the boundary...warm air remains...and a loose
height gradient and weak flow aloft until the next low digs in over
the Northern Rockies. The surface low developing over the Upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes moving across the country in
concert with another surface low developing over the Gulf Coast.
The upper trof and surface feature dragging through the region
alerting a pattern shift and models will likely remain split between
filling in with precip across ILX... or putting Central Illinois
between the two more favored regions for precip.  Most of Thursday
and Friday remain dry in the forecast until that system encroaches
on the region and pops begin to increase through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Pronounced outflow boundary just went through KBMI and will be at
KCMI by 1830Z, producing a wind shift and gusts of 15-20 knots for
about an hour, before winds revert to the south again. Afternoon
TAF forecast is filled with scattered convection in an environment
that favors random development and collapse of thunderstorms, so
will only cover it with VCTS initially and then update once any
short-term trends can be inferred at any given site. Convection
should diminish to scattered showers this evening. Additional
thunderstorms possible late in the night, as a cold front moves in
from the west. Additional storms possible Wednesday morning as the
front moves through, with the expected location of the front near
or just west of a KBMI-KSPI line at 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart





000
FXUS63 KILX 301756
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Update forecast to expand chances of showers and thunderstorms
further east over central IL this afternoon. Most of CWA will have
20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with 30-40%
chances nw of the IL river. Already had some isolated convection
affect southwest fringe of CWA earlier this morning. More isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms were just nw of Knox county
extending into eastern IA and tracking eastward. CAPES have
increased to 1-2k J/kg west of I-57 by late morning and this to
support isolated convection as a weak short wave over sw IL lifts
ne and to exit area by 00Z/7 pm today. 0-6 km bulk shear is quite
weak today, less than 20 kts, hence SPC just keeps our area in a
general risk of thunderstorms today. But isolated strong
thunderstorms could develop during afternoon nw of IL river with
brief period of pea size hail and gusty winds possible (pulse type
variety). HRRR and RAP models appear a bit too widespread with
coverage of convection today along and nw of I-70. Meanwhile NAM
model is dry today over CWA and that seems too dry with
instability returning today especially west of I-57. Another very
warm day in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with dewpoints in
the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure
over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains
poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri.
Widely scattered convection continues to develop and move
southeastward along the boundary, with most of the activity thus far
remaining west of the Mississippi River.  Will need to keep an eye
on radar trends, as a few showers could potentially reach the far
W/SW KILX CWA from Rushville to Jacksonville southwestward over the
next couple of hours.  Airmass across central Illinois is drier than
it has been over the past few days, as evidenced by precipitable
water values on the 00z KILX upper air sounding of only 0.86.  This
dry air should keep most of the showers west of the area, similar to
latest HRRR forecast.  Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
through the morning, then have introduced slight chance PoPs across
the Illinois River Valley this afternoon as the airmass slowly
moistens and the stationary front begins to shift northward.
Elsewhere around the area...mostly sunny and dry conditions will
prevail with high temperatures reaching the middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through
the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the
Plains and drags a front through the region. Although the models are
showing some consistency...timing confidence remains problematic.
Temperatures in the forecast stay summer-like through the first
couple of days this week...several degrees above normal.  A few
degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for
long...as southerly flow at the sfc reestablishes and sets up WAA
briefly going into next weekend. That being said, Tue/Wed high
temperatures will fall prey to any shower/cloud activity that could
dampen the diurnal curve.

Quasi-zonal flow sets up over the Midwest today and a weak flow
pattern aloft setting up as the next low digs in over the northern
Rockies. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of
the low with the performance of the models lately with timing. Not a
distinct kicker on the horizon and yet the models steadily push that
wave across the country through the first half of the week. Would
prefer a slightly slower solution...and grids reflecting that for
now. GFS/ECMWF still together with the clearing of the frontal
boundary and associated rain by Thursday morning...with the possible
exceptions of the far east/SE. Until then...showery activity in the
forecast more often than not.  Dry on the other side of the front at
least for Friday...with warm weather lasting into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
central and nw IL during the afternoon in unstable airmass with
CAPES of 1-2k J/kg west of I-57. A short wave moving ne into
central IL by mid afternoon ahead of upper level trof near the
KS/MO and OK/AR border will help support isolated convection this
afternoon and then dissipate by sunset. Scattered to broken
cumulus clouds 5-8k ft so VFR conditions expected with sky cover.
Weak high pressure of 1018 mb over southern IL, sw IN and western
KY to keep wind fields fairly light (less than 10 kts) next 24
hours as high pressure drifts over the Ohio river valley. Some
light fog/haze possible from 09Z-13Z where vsbys could lower to
4-6 miles.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KILX 300837
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure
over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains
poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri.
Widely scattered convection continues to develop and move
southeastward along the boundary, with most of the activity thus far
remaining west of the Mississippi River.  Will need to keep an eye
on radar trends, as a few showers could potentially reach the far
W/SW KILX CWA from Rushville to Jacksonville southwestward over the
next couple of hours.  Airmass across central Illinois is drier than
it has been over the past few days, as evidenced by precipitable
water values on the 00z KILX upper air sounding of only 0.86.  This
dry air should keep most of the showers west of the area, similar to
latest HRRR forecast.  Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
through the morning, then have introduced slight chance PoPs across
the Illinois River Valley this afternoon as the airmass slowly
moistens and the stationary front begins to shift northward.
Elsewhere around the area...mostly sunny and dry conditions will
prevail with high temperatures reaching the middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through
the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the
Plains and drags a front through the region. Although the models are
showing some consistency...timing confidence remains problematic.
Temperatures in the forecast stay summer-like through the first
couple of days this week...several degrees above normal.  A few
degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for
long...as southerly flow at the sfc reestablishes and sets up WAA
briefly going into next weekend. That being said, Tue/Wed high
temperatures will fall prey to any shower/cloud activity that could
dampen the diurnal curve.

Quasi-zonal flow sets up over the Midwest today and a weak flow
pattern aloft setting up as the next low digs in over the northern
Rockies. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of
the low with the performance of the models lately with timing. Not a
distinct kicker on the horizon and yet the models steadily push that
wave across the country through the first half of the week. Would
prefer a slightly slower solution...and grids reflecting that for
now. GFS/ECMWF still together with the clearing of the frontal
boundary and associated rain by Thursday morning...with the possible
exceptions of the far east/SE. Until then...showery activity in the
forecast more often than not.  Dry on the other side of the front at
least for Friday...with warm weather lasting into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...however there is a
slight chance a few thunderstorms may approach terminals
along/west of I-55 after 18Z. The probability of any storms
affecting terminals is too low for mention at this point.
Otherwise...scattered cumulus cloud development around 5000 feet
AGL expected to develop after 18Z...gradually dissipating after
00Z. Winds west up to 6 kts through 00Z...expected to turn
southerly after 00Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





000
FXUS63 KILX 292354
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have exited east of the
Wabash river at mid afternoon. A weak front has recently pushed east
of the Wabash river with breezy WNW winds behind the front bringing
in drier air. Dewpoints range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over
central IL to 64-68F along and southeast of a Robinson to Flora
line. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5-
8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight
with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Breezy
WNW winds 8-16 mph and gusts of 20-28 mph this afternoon will
diminish light after sunset. A weak short wave over central Iowa
will track east across northern IL/IN and southern WI tonight
keeping isolated convection north of CWA. Lows tonight mostly in the
lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Model agreement is pretty good with respect to the weather pattern
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next week.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal into midweek until a
storm system moves through the area (highs in the 80s, lows in the
60s). Then, temperatures will trend toward normal or a little below
(highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s) to end the forecast period.

A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in
place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging. However,
by late in the day, southerly low level return flow will develop
over at least western portions of the forecast area. This return
flow will help low-level moisture increase again across the area,
prompting modest diurnal instability. This instability may result in
mainly diurnally driven showers/storms late Monday
afternoon/evening, and again Tuesday afternoon/evening. However,
upper-level support is lacking and do not expect significant
organization or coverage with convection that occurs.

By Wednesday into Thursday, a more organized threat of
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated as a northern stream wave and
associated frontal system cross the area. However, even with this
system, the threat of severe storms looks low.

Quieter and somewhat cooler weather is expected behind the midweek
system to end the week. However, another (weaker) northern stream
wave may bring another chance of showers/storms to the area to
finish the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions and light west winds up to 10 kts expected for the
next 24 hours as high pressure remains centered just south of the
area. A few thunderstorms may potentially approach western
terminals KPIA-KSPI during Monday afternoon...however probability
too low for mention in 00Z TAFs at this point.
Otherwise...scattered cumulus development around 5000 feet AGL
expected to develop after 18Z across central IL.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Onton





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