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000
FXUS63 KILX 201740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery across
north-central Illinois will continue to track eastward out of the
area this afternoon. Despite weak synoptic lift associated with
this feature, little or no light precip has been observed. Clouds
blanket central Illinois, with lower clouds/fog remaining further
west across Iowa into northern/central Missouri. 16z LAPS soundings
show a dry layer below 900mb, which is not conducive for drizzle.
As a result, have removed the drizzle/flurry mention across the
far northern KILX CWA this morning. Will generally be a cloudy and
cold day across central Illinois: however, a few breaks in the
overcast will be possible from time to time. As low-level flow
gradually veers more southwesterly, lower clouds/drizzle/fog
currently west of the Mississippi River will spill eastward into
the Illinois River Valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be in between strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR ceilings will gradually spread across central Illinois this
afternoon/evening. 17z/11am obs show MVFR conditions
along/southwest of a KGBG to KSPI line, with VFR ceilings further
east across the remainder of the area. As light S/SE flow
gradually becomes more S/SW, these lower clouds will return to all
terminals by evening. Based on the latest HRRR output, have
introduced MVFR at KPIA by 21z, then further east to KCMI by 03z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 201740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery across
north-central Illinois will continue to track eastward out of the
area this afternoon. Despite weak synoptic lift associated with
this feature, little or no light precip has been observed. Clouds
blanket central Illinois, with lower clouds/fog remaining further
west across Iowa into northern/central Missouri. 16z LAPS soundings
show a dry layer below 900mb, which is not conducive for drizzle.
As a result, have removed the drizzle/flurry mention across the
far northern KILX CWA this morning. Will generally be a cloudy and
cold day across central Illinois: however, a few breaks in the
overcast will be possible from time to time. As low-level flow
gradually veers more southwesterly, lower clouds/drizzle/fog
currently west of the Mississippi River will spill eastward into
the Illinois River Valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be in between strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR ceilings will gradually spread across central Illinois this
afternoon/evening. 17z/11am obs show MVFR conditions
along/southwest of a KGBG to KSPI line, with VFR ceilings further
east across the remainder of the area. As light S/SE flow
gradually becomes more S/SW, these lower clouds will return to all
terminals by evening. Based on the latest HRRR output, have
introduced MVFR at KPIA by 21z, then further east to KCMI by 03z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes







000
FXUS63 KILX 201645
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery across
north-central Illinois will continue to track eastward out of the
area this afternoon. Despite weak synoptic lift associated with
this feature, little or no light precip has been observed. Clouds
blanket central Illinois, with lower clouds/fog remaining further
west across Iowa into northern/central Missouri. 16z LAPS soundings
show a dry layer below 900mb, which is not conducive for drizzle.
As a result, have removed the drizzle/flurry mention across the
far northern KILX CWA this morning. Will generally be a cloudy and
cold day across central Illinois: however, a few breaks in the
overcast will be possible from time to time. As low-level flow
gradually veers more southwesterly, lower clouds/drizzle/fog
currently west of the Mississippi River will spill eastward into
the Illinois River Valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR vsbys in fog/haze will occur thru 15z this morning and then a
gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR from west to east later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Weather system out to our west will
track across the area later this morning but as it heads east into
our area, moisture will be quite limited. As a result, other than
some scattered flurries, not major problems in precip are expected
with this system. We should see the cigs start to lower as the MVFR
and even some IFR cigs have been held out of our area all night thanks
to a persistent area of high pressure over east central IL. As the
high drifts off to our east this afternoon, we expect the lower clouds
that have been out to our west, to start to drift into parts of central
IL. Once the cigs lower to MVFR, expect at least MVFR conditions
tonight if not lower as a light southerly flow transports more moisture
in the lower levels into our area. Right now will hold with MVFR cigs
but could see some tempo IFR conditions, especially at PIA later this
evening. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor with a light
southeast to south flow expected today and tonight with speeds of less
than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 201645
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery across
north-central Illinois will continue to track eastward out of the
area this afternoon. Despite weak synoptic lift associated with
this feature, little or no light precip has been observed. Clouds
blanket central Illinois, with lower clouds/fog remaining further
west across Iowa into northern/central Missouri. 16z LAPS soundings
show a dry layer below 900mb, which is not conducive for drizzle.
As a result, have removed the drizzle/flurry mention across the
far northern KILX CWA this morning. Will generally be a cloudy and
cold day across central Illinois: however, a few breaks in the
overcast will be possible from time to time. As low-level flow
gradually veers more southwesterly, lower clouds/drizzle/fog
currently west of the Mississippi River will spill eastward into
the Illinois River Valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR vsbys in fog/haze will occur thru 15z this morning and then a
gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR from west to east later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Weather system out to our west will
track across the area later this morning but as it heads east into
our area, moisture will be quite limited. As a result, other than
some scattered flurries, not major problems in precip are expected
with this system. We should see the cigs start to lower as the MVFR
and even some IFR cigs have been held out of our area all night thanks
to a persistent area of high pressure over east central IL. As the
high drifts off to our east this afternoon, we expect the lower clouds
that have been out to our west, to start to drift into parts of central
IL. Once the cigs lower to MVFR, expect at least MVFR conditions
tonight if not lower as a light southerly flow transports more moisture
in the lower levels into our area. Right now will hold with MVFR cigs
but could see some tempo IFR conditions, especially at PIA later this
evening. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor with a light
southeast to south flow expected today and tonight with speeds of less
than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 201112
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
512 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR vsbys in fog/haze will occur thru 15z this morning and then a
gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR from west to east later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Weather system out to our west will
track across the area later this morning but as it heads east into
our area, moisture will be quite limited. As a result, other than
some scattered flurries, not major problems in precip are expected
with this system. We should see the cigs start to lower as the MVFR
and even some IFR cigs have been held out of our area all night thanks
to a persistent area of high pressure over east central IL. As the
high drifts off to our east this afternoon, we expect the lower clouds
that have been out to our west, to start to drift into parts of central
IL. Once the cigs lower to MVFR, expect at least MVFR conditions
tonight if not lower as a light southerly flow transports more moisture
in the lower levels into our area. Right now will hold with MVFR cigs
but could see some tempo IFR conditions, especially at PIA later this
evening. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor with a light
southeast to south flow expected today and tonight with speeds of less
than 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 201112
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
512 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR vsbys in fog/haze will occur thru 15z this morning and then a
gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR from west to east later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Weather system out to our west will
track across the area later this morning but as it heads east into
our area, moisture will be quite limited. As a result, other than
some scattered flurries, not major problems in precip are expected
with this system. We should see the cigs start to lower as the MVFR
and even some IFR cigs have been held out of our area all night thanks
to a persistent area of high pressure over east central IL. As the
high drifts off to our east this afternoon, we expect the lower clouds
that have been out to our west, to start to drift into parts of central
IL. Once the cigs lower to MVFR, expect at least MVFR conditions
tonight if not lower as a light southerly flow transports more moisture
in the lower levels into our area. Right now will hold with MVFR cigs
but could see some tempo IFR conditions, especially at PIA later this
evening. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor with a light
southeast to south flow expected today and tonight with speeds of less
than 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 200930
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR conditions will begin the TAF period for most of the TAF
sites...with the exception being CMI where MVFR VIS is already in
place. Some of the issues with the TAFs tonight are the timing of
MVFR VIS and lowering CIGs. The surface high that was over
Illinois earlier is slowly pushing east with light to calm winds
remaining over much of central Illinois. Winds are also slowly
shifting to the east southeast allowing the low level moisture to
filter in both from the east and the west. Locations over Missouri
and Indiana have MVFR VIS and CIGs with locations in Missouri
under IFR CIGs. Given the complexity involved with timing of lower
VIS and CIGs...confidence is fairly low in the TAF forecast past
the first 6 hours. Currently have MVFR conditions over PIA
starting at 09Z...at 08Z for BMI and DEC...and at 12Z for SPI.
Mainly went with the HRRR since it seemed to have a pretty good
handle on the previous forecast. Also included a TEMPO group for
CMI as all guidance had IFR VIS over the site between 09Z and 13Z.
Only included a TEMPO for now since confidence in the timing is
lower. VFR conditions could resume around 16Z for the sites after
the next upper level wave moves through Illinois...but this could
change with the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ALW







000
FXUS63 KILX 200930
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Latest satellite data indicating a shortwave trof near Omaha which
is expected to push across our area later this morning. Upstream
surface observations across central and east central Iowa have had
some reports of some very light freezing drizzle and flurries to the
east of the main area of lift, with even some very light flurries
reported this past hour in St. Louis. A secondary shortwave was
noted over parts of southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley
that has produced a band of light snow which extended along and
south of the I-70 corridor early this morning. That system will
shift off to our east over the next few hours taking the light snow
out of southeast Illinois by dawn.

As the compact shortwave over the Missouri Valley tracks across the
area, many of the forecast soundings are not showing much in the way
of support for widespread precip as high pressure at the surface is
still holding firm over east central Illinois this morning. We see
moisture in the 850-800 mb layer over most of the area with not a
great deal above that until later this morning when the main area of
lift associated with the vort max swings thru. Much of the stratus/low
level moisture will remain to our west thru the morning as well before
tracking slowing into west central Illinois this afternoon. Will carry
chances for flurries this morning, mainly over west central Illinois
ahead of the vort max, as we see some mid level moisture/lift track
just to the west of our forecast area. Most of the short term high
resolution models continue to suggest as the shortwave moves across
the remainder of the state, moisture profiles will not support much
in the way of precip further east this afternoon. Despite the more
widespread cloud cover over our area today, we should see afternoon
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings
ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Fairly quiet weather expected tonight through Sunday night across
central and southeast IL as surface ridge shifts east into New
England and the mid Atlantic states Sunday. Temps to gradually
modify next few days with increasing southerly flow especially by
Monday. Added patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle to the IL river valley
overnight with the low clouds as surface temps are close to
freezing. Mostly cloudy skies expected Sunday with more low clouds
prevailing over northern counties. Highs in the lower 40s Sunday
which will be a bit above normal highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Added slight chance of light rain late Sunday night around Galesburg
with best rain chances arriving during the day Monday especially by
Monday afternoon NW areas and Monday night into Tue across area.
Strong low pressure near Pacific NW to track into MN Monday night
and increase chances of rain over IL ahead of approaching low
pressure and cold front. Milder highs in the 40s Monday and Tue with
Lawrenceville around 50F.

Forecast models then deepen another area of low pressure from the
southern plains into KY by dawn Wed and then into eastern lower MI
or just east of there by sunset Wed. Colder air to be drawn into IL
Tue night and Wed with rain changing to snow during Tue night and
continue good chances of light snow Wed. Could be some light snow
accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed especially over
eastcentral IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
deepening low pulls away with strong west winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Dry conditions expected on Christmas Day over the state as IL will
be inbetween strong low pressure exiting into eastern Canada and new
low pressure developing over Texas Panhandle by sunset Thu. This low
pressure ejects ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Friday and
returns good chances of precipitation with southeast IL mainly rain
and a mix of rain/snow over central IL. Extended models show active
weather pattern looks to continue beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR conditions will begin the TAF period for most of the TAF
sites...with the exception being CMI where MVFR VIS is already in
place. Some of the issues with the TAFs tonight are the timing of
MVFR VIS and lowering CIGs. The surface high that was over
Illinois earlier is slowly pushing east with light to calm winds
remaining over much of central Illinois. Winds are also slowly
shifting to the east southeast allowing the low level moisture to
filter in both from the east and the west. Locations over Missouri
and Indiana have MVFR VIS and CIGs with locations in Missouri
under IFR CIGs. Given the complexity involved with timing of lower
VIS and CIGs...confidence is fairly low in the TAF forecast past
the first 6 hours. Currently have MVFR conditions over PIA
starting at 09Z...at 08Z for BMI and DEC...and at 12Z for SPI.
Mainly went with the HRRR since it seemed to have a pretty good
handle on the previous forecast. Also included a TEMPO group for
CMI as all guidance had IFR VIS over the site between 09Z and 13Z.
Only included a TEMPO for now since confidence in the timing is
lower. VFR conditions could resume around 16Z for the sites after
the next upper level wave moves through Illinois...but this could
change with the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 200535
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR conditions will begin the TAF period for most of the TAF
sites...with the exception being CMI where MVFR VIS is already in
place. Some of the issues with the TAFs tonight are the timing of
MVFR VIS and lowering CIGs. The surface high that was over
Illinois earlier is slowly pushing east with light to calm winds
remaining over much of central Illinois. Winds are also slowly
shifting to the east southeast allowing the low level moisture to
filter in both from the east and the west. Locations over Missouri
and Indiana have MVFR VIS and CIGs with locations in Missouri
under IFR CIGs. Given the complexity involved with timing of lower
VIS and CIGs...confidence is fairly low in the TAF forecast past
the first 6 hours. Currently have MVFR conditions over PIA
starting at 09Z...at 08Z for BMI and DEC...and at 12Z for SPI.
Mainly went with the HRRR since it seemed to have a pretty good
handle on the previous forecast. Also included a TEMPO group for
CMI as all guidance had IFR VIS over the site between 09Z and 13Z.
Only included a TEMPO for now since confidence in the timing is
lower. VFR conditions could resume around 16Z for the sites after
the next upper level wave moves through Illinois...but this could
change with the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...ALW







000
FXUS63 KILX 200535
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR conditions will begin the TAF period for most of the TAF
sites...with the exception being CMI where MVFR VIS is already in
place. Some of the issues with the TAFs tonight are the timing of
MVFR VIS and lowering CIGs. The surface high that was over
Illinois earlier is slowly pushing east with light to calm winds
remaining over much of central Illinois. Winds are also slowly
shifting to the east southeast allowing the low level moisture to
filter in both from the east and the west. Locations over Missouri
and Indiana have MVFR VIS and CIGs with locations in Missouri
under IFR CIGs. Given the complexity involved with timing of lower
VIS and CIGs...confidence is fairly low in the TAF forecast past
the first 6 hours. Currently have MVFR conditions over PIA
starting at 09Z...at 08Z for BMI and DEC...and at 12Z for SPI.
Mainly went with the HRRR since it seemed to have a pretty good
handle on the previous forecast. Also included a TEMPO group for
CMI as all guidance had IFR VIS over the site between 09Z and 13Z.
Only included a TEMPO for now since confidence in the timing is
lower. VFR conditions could resume around 16Z for the sites after
the next upper level wave moves through Illinois...but this could
change with the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 200309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 200309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 200309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 200309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The surface ridge axis is finally making some progress to the east
of Illinois, allowing winds west of I-55 to start a trend out of
the southeast. A weak shortwave passing across southern IL could
trigger some light snow showers or flurries southeast of I-70.
Radar returns toward Lawrenceville are mostly virga, with no snow
reaching the ground yet. Cloud heights are lowering with time
under that wave, so some flurries were added to the forecast for
the far southeast counties toward midnight.

The next area of concern is NW of the IL river, where low clouds
and fog may develop into some freezing drizzle toward sunrise. The
precip could fall as flurries, but a lack of ice crystals to feed
into the low cloud layer will limit the ability for snowflakes to
develop. Thus, the concern for FZDZ to occur. Any icing would
cause slippery travel conditions. Have added a mention of FZDZ
between 12z-15z Sat morn, but may need a mention even earlier
depending on speed of saturation and progression of shortwave from
Nebraska across Iowa/N MO.

Low temps will not drop off appreciably from current temps due to
increasing clouds. Updates this evening were to the weather and
sky grids to match expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 192344
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 192344
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery indicated a thin layer of high clouds has
streamed across much of central Illinois early this evening, with
no cloud ceiling showing up in the observations at any TAF site at
23z. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket Iowa/Missouri, as
well as just to the NE across NE IL and Indiana. The HRRR is
indicating that mid level clouds 5-6k FT could advance over our
terminal sites later tonight. Eventually cloud heights are
projected to drop to MVFR Saturday morning, with light fog at 4SM
BR restrictions. Can not rule out some flurries or possibly even
patchy freezing drizzle around PIA and BMI tomorrow morning. For
now, did not include any mention of precip, but any FZDZ could
cause slippery travel surfaces. Will monitor upstream and
forecast soundings for possible FZDZ occurring toward sunrise and
through the morning.

With high pressure directly overhead this evening, low-level winds
continue to remain light. Expect no change in that area tonight. Southeast
winds will develop tomorrow morning as the high shifts off to the
east, which will drag MVFR clouds back into central IL the
remainder of the day, with spotty precip possible.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 192128
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery continues to indicate mostly clear skies
across much of central Illinois late this morning, with VFR ceilings
persisting at only KSPI. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket
Iowa/Missouri. With high pressure directly overhead, low-level
winds are quite light and will remain light until the high begins
to shift off to the east later tonight into Saturday. At that
time, return flow on the back side of the slowly departing high
will allow lower clouds to spill back into the area from the W/SW.
Have therefore gone with VFR conditions across the board this
afternoon/evening, followed by a gradual return of MVFR ceilings
overnight into Saturday morning. Have lowered ceilings to around
2500ft and introduced restricted visbys down to 4sm between 13z
and 16z accordingly.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barnes









000
FXUS63 KILX 192128
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

20z/2pm visible satellite imagery continues to show a large break in
the overcast extending from southeast Iowa across much of central
Illinois into Kentucky. With high pressure directly overhead and
only very light low-level winds, partly to mostly clear conditions
will persist through the evening hours.  As the high begins to shift
eastward, a southerly return flow will gradually develop late
tonight into Saturday, allowing the low clouds currently across
Iowa/Missouri to spill back into the area.  End result will be a
mostly clear start to the night, with overcast conditions expected
across the board by dawn Saturday.  May also see some patchy fog
west of the I-55 corridor late tonight as low-level moisture
increases, but am not expecting any major restrictions to
visibility.  Due to the initially mostly clear skies and light
winds, another cold night is expected with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A rather quiet weekend is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois, but weather activity will be on the upswing heading into
the Holiday work week.

Model agreement is good through the weekend with mostly neutral
upper-level flow and high pressure expected to be the dominant
player at the surface. A week wave, currently pushing east across
the central Plains, will cross the area early Saturday. However, the
forcing appears too weak, and moisture depth too shallow, to warrant
a mention of any precipitation.

A strong, slow moving system will impact the area from Monday into
Christmas Eve. We will remain on the warm side of the system through
Tuesday, with all precipitation initially expected to fall in the
form of rain. Temperatures ahead of the system will also average
nearly 10 degrees above normal for late December.

The colder air on the back side of the deepening storm system will
arrive for Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. This would support any
remaining precipitation changing over to snow. At this point, the
threat for significant snowfall on the back side of the system seems
low, but some light snow accumulation is likely. The model
agreement/run-to-run consistency is still a little shaky heading
into midweek, so future model trends will need to be monitored very
closely.

Another system is progged to arrive by late in the week, generally
Friday into Saturday. However, model consistency with this system is
poorer than the first, so confidence in the ultimate outcome is not
very high.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery continues to indicate mostly clear skies
across much of central Illinois late this morning, with VFR ceilings
persisting at only KSPI. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket
Iowa/Missouri. With high pressure directly overhead, low-level
winds are quite light and will remain light until the high begins
to shift off to the east later tonight into Saturday. At that
time, return flow on the back side of the slowly departing high
will allow lower clouds to spill back into the area from the W/SW.
Have therefore gone with VFR conditions across the board this
afternoon/evening, followed by a gradual return of MVFR ceilings
overnight into Saturday morning. Have lowered ceilings to around
2500ft and introduced restricted visbys down to 4sm between 13z
and 16z accordingly.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 191758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

16z/10am visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies across most
of central Illinois, with low clouds bracketing the KILX CWA to
the west, north, and east. This large area of clearing developed
directly beneath a ridge of high pressure last night and has
persisted through this morning. Main short-term challenge will be
whether or not skies will become overcast again today. Satellite
loops over the past couple of hours are showing very little
change, with even some erosion of the cloud cover across the far
SW CWA around Jacksonville. With surface high remaining in place
and very weak low-level winds, do not see clouds currently in
place across Iowa/Missouri returning very quickly. NAM forecast
soundings generally remain dry until later in the afternoon when
low clouds slowly begin to encroach from the west and high/thin
cirrus stream northeastward from a storm system tracking across
the southern Plains. End result will be a partly to mostly sunny
day across central Illinois with afternoon high temperatures
reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery continues to indicate mostly clear skies
across much of central Illinois late this morning, with VFR ceilings
persisting at only KSPI. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket
Iowa/Missouri. With high pressure directly overhead, low-level
winds are quite light and will remain light until the high begins
to shift off to the east later tonight into Saturday. At that
time, return flow on the back side of the slowly departing high
will allow lower clouds to spill back into the area from the W/SW.
Have therefore gone with VFR conditions across the board this
afternoon/evening, followed by a gradual return of MVFR ceilings
overnight into Saturday morning. Have lowered ceilings to around
2500ft and introduced restricted visbys down to 4sm between 13z
and 16z accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 191758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

16z/10am visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies across most
of central Illinois, with low clouds bracketing the KILX CWA to
the west, north, and east. This large area of clearing developed
directly beneath a ridge of high pressure last night and has
persisted through this morning. Main short-term challenge will be
whether or not skies will become overcast again today. Satellite
loops over the past couple of hours are showing very little
change, with even some erosion of the cloud cover across the far
SW CWA around Jacksonville. With surface high remaining in place
and very weak low-level winds, do not see clouds currently in
place across Iowa/Missouri returning very quickly. NAM forecast
soundings generally remain dry until later in the afternoon when
low clouds slowly begin to encroach from the west and high/thin
cirrus stream northeastward from a storm system tracking across
the southern Plains. End result will be a partly to mostly sunny
day across central Illinois with afternoon high temperatures
reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Latest satellite imagery continues to indicate mostly clear skies
across much of central Illinois late this morning, with VFR ceilings
persisting at only KSPI. Further west, MVFR/IFR ceilings blanket
Iowa/Missouri. With high pressure directly overhead, low-level
winds are quite light and will remain light until the high begins
to shift off to the east later tonight into Saturday. At that
time, return flow on the back side of the slowly departing high
will allow lower clouds to spill back into the area from the W/SW.
Have therefore gone with VFR conditions across the board this
afternoon/evening, followed by a gradual return of MVFR ceilings
overnight into Saturday morning. Have lowered ceilings to around
2500ft and introduced restricted visbys down to 4sm between 13z
and 16z accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes









000
FXUS63 KILX 191635
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1035 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

16z/10am visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies across most
of central Illinois, with low clouds bracketing the KILX CWA to
the west, north, and east. This large area of clearing developed
directly beneath a ridge of high pressure last night and has
persisted through this morning. Main short-term challenge will be
whether or not skies will become overcast again today. Satellite
loops over the past couple of hours are showing very little
change, with even some erosion of the cloud cover across the far
SW CWA around Jacksonville. With surface high remaining in place
and very weak low-level winds, do not see clouds currently in
place across Iowa/Missouri returning very quickly. NAM forecast
soundings generally remain dry until later in the afternoon when
low clouds slowly begin to encroach from the west and high/thin
cirrus stream northeastward from a storm system tracking across
the southern Plains. End result will be a partly to mostly sunny
day across central Illinois with afternoon high temperatures
reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure centered from northeast Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois has helped to scour out some of the MVFR clouds that
have dominated our area over the past 24 hours, especially along
the ridge axis early this morning. Satellite data indicates the
clear area extended from Moline southeast thru Peoria, Bloomington
and Champaign with MVFR cigs to the north and south. Forecast
soundings continue to suggest areas that were experiencing the
clear skies this morning should see the low VFR and even some MVFR
cigs move back in by later this morning into the afternoon hours.
Confidence on timing and extent of the lower VFR and MVFR cigs
across the area today is rather low, so will trend with more
clouds across the north and east by later this morning into the
afternoon hours but keep it mostly low VFR at this time. Surface
winds will once again be a non- factor today as our area will be
under the high pressure system so will continue with a light and
variable wind over most of the area into tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 191635
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1035 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

16z/10am visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies across most
of central Illinois, with low clouds bracketing the KILX CWA to
the west, north, and east. This large area of clearing developed
directly beneath a ridge of high pressure last night and has
persisted through this morning. Main short-term challenge will be
whether or not skies will become overcast again today. Satellite
loops over the past couple of hours are showing very little
change, with even some erosion of the cloud cover across the far
SW CWA around Jacksonville. With surface high remaining in place
and very weak low-level winds, do not see clouds currently in
place across Iowa/Missouri returning very quickly. NAM forecast
soundings generally remain dry until later in the afternoon when
low clouds slowly begin to encroach from the west and high/thin
cirrus stream northeastward from a storm system tracking across
the southern Plains. End result will be a partly to mostly sunny
day across central Illinois with afternoon high temperatures
reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure centered from northeast Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois has helped to scour out some of the MVFR clouds that
have dominated our area over the past 24 hours, especially along
the ridge axis early this morning. Satellite data indicates the
clear area extended from Moline southeast thru Peoria, Bloomington
and Champaign with MVFR cigs to the north and south. Forecast
soundings continue to suggest areas that were experiencing the
clear skies this morning should see the low VFR and even some MVFR
cigs move back in by later this morning into the afternoon hours.
Confidence on timing and extent of the lower VFR and MVFR cigs
across the area today is rather low, so will trend with more
clouds across the north and east by later this morning into the
afternoon hours but keep it mostly low VFR at this time. Surface
winds will once again be a non- factor today as our area will be
under the high pressure system so will continue with a light and
variable wind over most of the area into tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 191137
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
537 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure centered from northeast Iowa southeast thru central
Illinois has helped to scour out some of the MVFR clouds that
have dominated our area over the past 24 hours, especially along
the ridge axis early this morning. Satellite data indicates the
clear area extended from Moline southeast thru Peoria, Bloomington
and Champaign with MVFR cigs to the north and south. Forecast
soundings continue to suggest areas that were experiencing the
clear skies this morning should see the low VFR and even some MVFR
cigs move back in by later this morning into the afternoon hours.
Confidence on timing and extent of the lower VFR and MVFR cigs
across the area today is rather low, so will trend with more
clouds across the north and east by later this morning into the
afternoon hours but keep it mostly low VFR at this time. Surface
winds will once again be a non- factor today as our area will be
under the high pressure system so will continue with a light and
variable wind over most of the area into tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 190841
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Christmas Day)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions should last through the TAF period. Some clearing
has developed along the surface ridge axis over some of the TAF
sites already...but decided to keep few or scattered clouds since
confidence is not strong enough in clear skies over a long period
of time. Satellite shows a relatively narrow band of
clearing...with more cloud cover upstream. Winds will be calm to
light throughout the TAF period as the surface high stays over
central Illinois through tomorrow evening before slowly shifting
eastward. Winds will be variable with the high overhead and will
shift to the east southeast tomorrow night...but remain light.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...ALW







000
FXUS63 KILX 190841
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

High pressure is expected to hold over central Illinois through
today with the next southern stream shortwave, currently over south
central Texas early this morning, forecast to track well south of
our area. 2am satellite data and surface observations showing an
area of clear skies extending from just northwest of Peoria
southeast thru Champaign and Decatur. Short range models suggest
this area will gradually fill back in with clouds as the day wears
on. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and Rapid Refresh models also
support this idea thru the day with the last few satellite frames
off the IR loop indicating the clouds over far west central IL were
starting to shift more to the east. Forecast soundings across
central IL today support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
30s with another day with very little wind, something that is a bit
on the rare side for December across our area.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Christmas Day)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main focus remains with active pattern setting up for the upcoming
holiday week.

Powerful jet of 120-160 knots at 300 mb will be coming into the
Pacific Northwest later this weekend before diving toward the
southern Plains, helping to carve out a deep trough over the central
U.S. The GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with development
of a closed low over eastern South Dakota by midday Monday, with
some minor disagreements as to the amount of wobbling of this low as
it drifts toward the east. The ECMWF brings the center as far south
as Springfield by Wednesday morning, while the GFS and Canadian
models are centered across Wisconsin.

Precipitation shield with this system expected to start spreading
into the Illinois River valley by late Monday morning, then eastward
across the state during the day. The GFS is more prominent with a
dry slot punching in already by late evening, while the ECMWF
lingers the rain into Tuesday morning. Leaned more towards the
slower ECMWF solution and increased rain chances to around 60%
Monday night north of I-74 and east of I-57. Forecast soundings are
well above freezing up to around 850 mb, so have removed any mixed
precip wording for Monday night. Some mixture possible northwest of
the Illinois River on Tuesday, although a loss of ice crystals aloft
with the dry slot may mitigate this.

As we head toward Christmas Eve, amount of wrap-around precipitation
is a concern. The ECMWF rapidly intensifies the surface cyclone to
our east, with central pressure down to around 978 mb midday near
Cleveland. This solution brings periodic snow showers southeast into
our area in the strong northwest flow. The much weaker GFS has some
flurries lingering through the day, with less windy conditions. Have
kept precipitation chances across the east during the day on the
edge of the ECMWF`s dry slot, but kept only slight chances elsewhere
for now. Snowfall amounts still appear to be on the light side, but
holiday travel will still not be pleasant with the snow and the
winds. Christmas Day itself appears dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions should last through the TAF period. Some clearing
has developed along the surface ridge axis over some of the TAF
sites already...but decided to keep few or scattered clouds since
confidence is not strong enough in clear skies over a long period
of time. Satellite shows a relatively narrow band of
clearing...with more cloud cover upstream. Winds will be calm to
light throughout the TAF period as the surface high stays over
central Illinois through tomorrow evening before slowly shifting
eastward. Winds will be variable with the high overhead and will
shift to the east southeast tomorrow night...but remain light.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 190530
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The surface ridge axis will remain nearly stationary from NW to SE
across Illinois for the next 24 hours or so. That will result in
weak northerly surface winds, and a subsidence inversion to keep
clouds lingering across a majority of the area. A few pockets of
clearing have developed directly under the ridge axis roughly along
the I-74 corridor. Additional low cloud cover borders the clearing
area, and light NW flow in the cloud-bearing layer appears to be
guiding more clouds into the clearing. Forecast soundings do show
a trend toward a thinning of the low level moisture during the day
tomorrow, so the clearing may become more prominent with daytime
mixing and a relaxing of the low level inversion. Will still keep
clouds prevailing in the sky grids overnight, but thin them out
across the north where low clouds have opened up. Fog potential
should be higher in SW IL where the very low clouds have
persisted. Forecast soundings do not support much in the way of
fog in our counties, with the better chances mainly toward
Jacksonville and Taylorville. Low temps may remain slightly warmer
than guidance SW of Lincoln where clouds will be persistent.
Otherwise, low temps looked on track. Made minor updates to the
sky and temps for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrap-around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions should last through the TAF period. Some clearing
has developed along the surface ridge axis over some of the TAF
sites already...but decided to keep few or scattered clouds since
confidence is not strong enough in clear skies over a long period
of time. Satellite shows a relatively narrow band of
clearing...with more cloud cover upstream. Winds will be calm to
light throughout the TAF period as the surface high stays over
central Illinois through tomorrow evening before slowly shifting
eastward. Winds will be variable with the high overhead and will
shift to the east southeast tomorrow night...but remain light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...ALW








000
FXUS63 KILX 190530
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The surface ridge axis will remain nearly stationary from NW to SE
across Illinois for the next 24 hours or so. That will result in
weak northerly surface winds, and a subsidence inversion to keep
clouds lingering across a majority of the area. A few pockets of
clearing have developed directly under the ridge axis roughly along
the I-74 corridor. Additional low cloud cover borders the clearing
area, and light NW flow in the cloud-bearing layer appears to be
guiding more clouds into the clearing. Forecast soundings do show
a trend toward a thinning of the low level moisture during the day
tomorrow, so the clearing may become more prominent with daytime
mixing and a relaxing of the low level inversion. Will still keep
clouds prevailing in the sky grids overnight, but thin them out
across the north where low clouds have opened up. Fog potential
should be higher in SW IL where the very low clouds have
persisted. Forecast soundings do not support much in the way of
fog in our counties, with the better chances mainly toward
Jacksonville and Taylorville. Low temps may remain slightly warmer
than guidance SW of Lincoln where clouds will be persistent.
Otherwise, low temps looked on track. Made minor updates to the
sky and temps for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrap-around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions should last through the TAF period. Some clearing
has developed along the surface ridge axis over some of the TAF
sites already...but decided to keep few or scattered clouds since
confidence is not strong enough in clear skies over a long period
of time. Satellite shows a relatively narrow band of
clearing...with more cloud cover upstream. Winds will be calm to
light throughout the TAF period as the surface high stays over
central Illinois through tomorrow evening before slowly shifting
eastward. Winds will be variable with the high overhead and will
shift to the east southeast tomorrow night...but remain light.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...ALW







000
FXUS63 KILX 190304
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
904 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The surface ridge axis will remain nearly stationary from NW to SE
across Illinois for the next 24 hours or so. That will result in
weak northerly surface winds, and a subsidence inversion to keep
clouds lingering across a majority of the area. A few pockets of
clearing have developed directly under the ridge axis roughly along
the I-74 corridor. Additional low cloud cover borders the clearing
area, and light NW flow in the cloud-bearing layer appears to be
guiding more clouds into the clearing. Forecast soundings do show
a trend toward a thinning of the low level moisture during the day
tomorrow, so the clearing may become more prominent with daytime
mixing and a relaxing of the low level inversion. Will still keep
clouds prevailing in the sky grids overnight, but thin them out
across the north where low clouds have opened up. Fog potential
should be higher in SW IL where the very low clouds have
persisted. Forecast soundings do not support much in the way of
fog in our counties, with the better chances mainly toward
Jacksonville and Taylorville. Low temps may remain slightly warmer
than guidance SW of Lincoln where clouds will be persistent.
Otherwise, low temps looked on track. Made minor updates to the
sky and temps for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrap-around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Snow showers and flurries have departed to the east, and VFR cloud
cover has developed across the northern terminals of PIA/BMI under
the surface ridge axis. HRRR and NAM/RUC forecast soundings all
point toward a continuation of at least some cloud cover over the
next 24 hours for all TAF sites. VFR cloud heights are projected
to expand from NE toward the SW tonight, with CMI/DEC ceilings
lifting to VFR. SPI will has the best chance of remaining MVFR
based on their proximity to the IFR/LIFR cloud mass. Confidence
is low on how the cloud cover will play out overnight, but will
default to BKN-OVC conditions throughout the TAF period, and
monitor any holes in the clouds that may develop along under the
ridge axis along the I-74 corridor.

Winds will remain light and variable for the next 24 hours, under
the weak pressure gradient/sfc ridge axis.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 182334
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrap-around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Snow showers and flurries have departed to the east, and VFR cloud
cover has developed across the northern terminals of PIA/BMI under
the surface ridge axis. HRRR and NAM/RUC forecast soundings all
point toward a continuation of at least some cloud cover over the
next 24 hours for all TAF sites. VFR cloud heights are projected
to expand from NE toward the SW tonight, with CMI/DEC ceilings
lifting to VFR. SPI will has the best chance of remaining MVFR
based on their proximity to the IFR/LIFR cloud mass. Confidence
is low on how the cloud cover will play out overnight, but will
default to BKN-OVC conditions throughout the TAF period, and
monitor any holes in the clouds that may develop along under the
ridge axis along the I-74 corridor.

Winds will remain light and variable for the next 24 hours, under
the weak pressure gradient/sfc ridge axis.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







000
FXUS63 KILX 182334
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrap-around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Snow showers and flurries have departed to the east, and VFR cloud
cover has developed across the northern terminals of PIA/BMI under
the surface ridge axis. HRRR and NAM/RUC forecast soundings all
point toward a continuation of at least some cloud cover over the
next 24 hours for all TAF sites. VFR cloud heights are projected
to expand from NE toward the SW tonight, with CMI/DEC ceilings
lifting to VFR. SPI will has the best chance of remaining MVFR
based on their proximity to the IFR/LIFR cloud mass. Confidence
is low on how the cloud cover will play out overnight, but will
default to BKN-OVC conditions throughout the TAF period, and
monitor any holes in the clouds that may develop along under the
ridge axis along the I-74 corridor.

Winds will remain light and variable for the next 24 hours, under
the weak pressure gradient/sfc ridge axis.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon








000
FXUS63 KILX 182051
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Short-wave trough responsible for the light snow earlier today has
sheared out and pushed into Indiana this afternoon, leaving behind
cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries.  With another vigorous
wave noted upstream on water vapor imagery over the Desert
Southwest, short-wave ridging will begin to develop across the
Midwest later tonight into Friday.  This will ensure dry conditions
and perhaps some thinning of the overcast.  20z/2pm visible
satellite imagery already shows some breaks in the cloud cover
developing from the Bloomington area northwestward into Iowa.  As
synoptic subsidence increases in the wake of the departing Indiana
wave, additional breaks will develop further south and east as the
night progresses.  Will maintain mostly cloudy conditions overall,
but think some temporary clearing may occur from time to time.  HRRR
hints at this trend as well.  Meanwhile further west, a low overcast
will prevail across southern Iowa into Missouri.  Will have to keep
an eye on the low clouds and fog to the west, as several high-res
models try to develop fog eastward into the western KILX CWA after
midnight.  Will leave out of the forecast for now, as 18z NAM
forecast soundings show little or no restriction to visibility.  Low
temperatures will be similar to last night in the teens and lower
20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Morning vort max over northern MO that triggered morning south over
southern 1/2 of CWA has weakened and sheared to the east in
confluent upper flow through the day. Result is the end of light
snow for region in afternoon. Moisture channel data depicts next
wave that was over western AZ at 12z in upper air data, now moved
into eastern AZ. This wave to continue to track east into the
plains, but has weakened and models keep it south of area.

The main system of interest is the digging of the upper trough into
the midwest by late in the weekend. Both GFS and EUR similar in
closing off low into WI by Mon night. Pcpn still develops and
spreads into area Monday, with a brief early chance of a mix of pcpn
type at the onset. Warm advection ahead of the developing surface
low will then keep pcpn rain through Mon and then a light mix in the
northwest sections possible Mon night. Front to move through by
early Tues with cold air following. Therefore a mix of rn/sn in
grids for Tues, changing over to sn on Tues night. Chance of Sn in
the region Wed, but with the upper low in the Great Lakes, pcpn
amounts will be light and only wrapp around light pcpn. Sn amounts
will be light, ending Wed night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The widespread light snow from earlier this morning has now
diminished to scattered snow-showers, primarily along and south of
a KSPI...to KDEC...to KCMI line. Will carry MVFR ceilings and -SN
at those 3 terminals through 20z accordingly. Further north, VFR
conditions will prevail at both KPIA and KBMI through the day.
Once the light snow completely ends, clouds will persist across
the entire area through Friday morning. NAM RH profiles show IFR
ceilings remaining in place across southern Iowa into Missouri
through the period, while MVFR/VFR ceilings prevail further east
across central Illinois. Winds will remain light/variable beneath
the surface ridge axis through 18z Fri.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 181749
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a weakening short-wave over
northern Missouri. This feature has been responsible for an area of
light snow across mainly west-central Illinois this morning. Latest
radar loops continue to show the snow spreading northeastward:
however, surface obs indicate it has only reached a Macomb...to
Lincoln...to Decatur line. All models suggest the snow will
quickly taper off to flurries by early afternoon as the upper wave
weakens further and the precip struggles to develop/spread into
the dry airmass across north-central and eastern Illinois. Have
already made updates to the PoPs, mainly to sharpen the NE/SW
gradient across the area. Am maintaining dry conditions
along/north of I-74, but going with categorical PoPs just S/SW of
there. So far reported amounts have been quite light, with an
observer in Taylorville measuring 1/2 inch. Will continue to
forecast less than 1 inch across the W/SW CWA. Cold and dry
conditions will return by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The widespread light snow from earlier this morning has now
diminished to scattered snow-showers, primarily along and south of
a KSPI...to KDEC...to KCMI line. Will carry MVFR ceilings and -SN
at those 3 terminals through 20z accordingly. Further north, VFR
conditions will prevail at both KPIA and KBMI through the day.
Once the light snow completely ends, clouds will persist across
the entire area through Friday morning. NAM RH profiles show IFR
ceilings remaining in place across southern Iowa into Missouri
through the period, while MVFR/VFR ceilings prevail further east
across central Illinois. Winds will remain light/variable beneath
the surface ridge axis through 18z Fri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 181637
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a weakening short-wave over
northern Missouri. This feature has been responsible for an area of
light snow across mainly west-central Illinois this morning. Latest
radar loops continue to show the snow spreading northeastward:
however, surface obs indicate it has only reached a Macomb...to
Lincoln...to Decatur line. All models suggest the snow will
quickly taper off to flurries by early afternoon as the upper wave
weakens further and the precip struggles to develop/spread into
the dry airmass across north-central and eastern Illinois. Have
already made updates to the PoPs, mainly to sharpen the NE/SW
gradient across the area. Am maintaining dry conditions
along/north of I-74, but going with categorical PoPs just S/SW of
there. So far reported amounts have been quite light, with an
observer in Taylorville measuring 1/2 inch. Will continue to
forecast less than 1 inch across the W/SW CWA. Cold and dry
conditions will return by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A weather system approaching from the west will bring increasing
cloud cover and areas -sn today, while MVFR ceilings linger from
around KCMI-K1H2 eastward through the morning. Expect areas MVFR
cigs returning late morning through portions of the evening,
earliest KSPI westward. Areas -sn with sct MVFR vsby likely
southwest of KGBG-KLWV from 14Z-20Z. VFR conditions expected to
return overnight, with MVFR cigs remaining latest KSPI-KDEC
southward. Winds N-NW less than 5 kts through the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 181637
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

16z/10am water vapor imagery shows a weakening short-wave over
northern Missouri. This feature has been responsible for an area of
light snow across mainly west-central Illinois this morning. Latest
radar loops continue to show the snow spreading northeastward:
however, surface obs indicate it has only reached a Macomb...to
Lincoln...to Decatur line. All models suggest the snow will
quickly taper off to flurries by early afternoon as the upper wave
weakens further and the precip struggles to develop/spread into
the dry airmass across north-central and eastern Illinois. Have
already made updates to the PoPs, mainly to sharpen the NE/SW
gradient across the area. Am maintaining dry conditions
along/north of I-74, but going with categorical PoPs just S/SW of
there. So far reported amounts have been quite light, with an
observer in Taylorville measuring 1/2 inch. Will continue to
forecast less than 1 inch across the W/SW CWA. Cold and dry
conditions will return by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A weather system approaching from the west will bring increasing
cloud cover and areas -sn today, while MVFR ceilings linger from
around KCMI-K1H2 eastward through the morning. Expect areas MVFR
cigs returning late morning through portions of the evening,
earliest KSPI westward. Areas -sn with sct MVFR vsby likely
southwest of KGBG-KLWV from 14Z-20Z. VFR conditions expected to
return overnight, with MVFR cigs remaining latest KSPI-KDEC
southward. Winds N-NW less than 5 kts through the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 181146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
546 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A weather system approaching from the west will bring increasing
cloud cover and areas -sn today, while MVFR ceilings linger from
around KCMI-K1H2 eastward through the morning. Expect areas MVFR
cigs returning late morning through portions of the evening,
earliest KSPI westward. Areas -sn with sct MVFR vsby likely
southwest of KGBG-KLWV from 14Z-20Z. VFR conditions expected to
return overnight, with MVFR cigs remaining latest KSPI-KDEC
southward. Winds N-NW less than 5 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton







000
FXUS63 KILX 181146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
546 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A weather system approaching from the west will bring increasing
cloud cover and areas -sn today, while MVFR ceilings linger from
around KCMI-K1H2 eastward through the morning. Expect areas MVFR
cigs returning late morning through portions of the evening,
earliest KSPI westward. Areas -sn with sct MVFR vsby likely
southwest of KGBG-KLWV from 14Z-20Z. VFR conditions expected to
return overnight, with MVFR cigs remaining latest KSPI-KDEC
southward. Winds N-NW less than 5 kts through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton








000
FXUS63 KILX 180932
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Clouds are still slowly exiting the area to the east. BMI, DEC,
and CMI still have broken to overcast clouds at MVFR levels. These
will eventually head east but broken cirrus has overspread all TAF
sites. As the next system advances closer to the area, clouds will
lower into the mid range to around 8kft at all sites sometime
during the morning, with SPI lower first. Models continue to show
very light snow getting to SPI only. So this is the only site
where I have cigs dropping to MVFR and having light snow/flurries
in the TAFs. All other sites will see slightly lower clouds to
around 5kft. Could be some MVFR cigs that slide over the other
sites, so will have TEMPO groups of 3-4 hrs for the others to
account for possible cigs around 3kft. During the late afternoon all
sites should see lower clouds scatter/dissipate with cirrus left
the rest of the evening. Winds will remain light and variable due
to the high pressure ridge sitting right over the area.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 180932
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

An elongated high pressure ridge remains over IL this morning while
a shortwave is approaching from the west, moving into MO at this
time. The shortwave will weaken considerably today as it moves into
the ridge over Illinois. The result will be a good chance of
precipitation west of Springfield and I-55, but lower chances to the
northeast of Springfield. Only a slight chance as far northeast as
Galesburg to Decatur to Lawrenceville. Precipitation will be in the
form of snow given the depth of moisture extending well above the
-10 Celsius level, although some drizzle could develop during
periods where showers are less active. Snowfall amounts should be
quite light with this weakening system, reaching only up to around
one half inch near Jacksonville. Temperatures should only reach to
around the freezing mark today throughout central IL, with light and
variable to light northwest winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Shortwave currently swinging through northern Baja California on
track to reach southern Texas by Friday afternoon, where the
associated surface storm system will be developing. The models have
been continuing their trend of pushing this system further south of
our area, with only the GFS producing some flurries as far north as
I-70. Have thus removed the remaining snow mention over the
southeast CWA Friday night and Saturday morning.

Primary focus is thus with the active pattern setting up ahead of
the Christmas travel rush next week. A broad upper trough will be
digging across the Plains Sunday and Monday. Strong jet stream of
120-160 knots will be coming down from the Pacific Northwest toward
the southern Plains early next week, helping to develop a closed low
over the northern Plains and a strong surface cyclone under it. Bulk
of the precipitation into Tuesday morning looks to be all rain, with
some snow mixed in at times in the far north. Complicated part comes
behind the cold front passage on Tuesday. Given the strength of the
system, the surface and upper low will be slow to move out,
lingering over northern Wisconsin or the Upper Peninsula through
most of Christmas Eve. The core of the heavier precipitation will be
east of our area by evening, but precipitation will wrap around the
low through this period. The GFS is faster in bringing in the colder
air, with 850 mb temperatures down to -10C by Wednesday morning,
while the ECMWF is a couple degrees warmer. Rain will transition to
snow most areas Tuesday night, although a mix may persist south of
I-70 late into the night. Have kept snow in most areas on Wednesday,
although a rain/snow mix again possible across the south, although
obviously some adjustments may later be needed with the system that
far out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Clouds are still slowly exiting the area to the east. BMI, DEC,
and CMI still have broken to overcast clouds at MVFR levels. These
will eventually head east but broken cirrus has overspread all TAF
sites. As the next system advances closer to the area, clouds will
lower into the mid range to around 8kft at all sites sometime
during the morning, with SPI lower first. Models continue to show
very light snow getting to SPI only. So this is the only site
where I have cigs dropping to MVFR and having light snow/flurries
in the TAFs. All other sites will see slightly lower clouds to
around 5kft. Could be some MVFR cigs that slide over the other
sites, so will have TEMPO groups of 3-4 hrs for the others to
account for possible cigs around 3kft. During the late afternoon all
sites should see lower clouds scatter/dissipate with cirrus left
the rest of the evening. Winds will remain light and variable due
to the high pressure ridge sitting right over the area.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 180534
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1134 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Have already made one adjustment to cloud cover since it is not
clearing as fast as originally expected. Will be making another
adjustment for the same thing with high clouds advecting in from
the southwest. Pcpn is moving across MO and still expected to
arrive in western IL in the morning. Forecast still has good
handle on this. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be updating
to reflect current cloud trends. Update coming shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by Tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Clouds are still slowly exiting the area to the east. BMI, DEC,
and CMI still have broken to overcast clouds at MVFR levels. These
will eventually head east but broken cirrus has overspread all TAF
sites. As the next system advances closer to the area, clouds will
lower into the mid range to around 8kft at all sites sometime
during the morning, with SPI lower first. Models continue to show
very light snow getting to SPI only. So this is the only site
where I have cigs dropping to MVFR and having light snow/flurries
in the TAFs. All other sites will see slightly lower clouds to
around 5kft. Could be some MVFR cigs that slide over the other
sites, so will have TEMPO groups of 3-4 hrs for the others to
account for possible cigs around 3kft. During the late afternoon all
sites should see lower clouds scatter/dissipate with cirrus left
the rest of the evening. Winds will remain light and variable due
to the high pressure ridge sitting right over the area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 180534
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1134 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Have already made one adjustment to cloud cover since it is not
clearing as fast as originally expected. Will be making another
adjustment for the same thing with high clouds advecting in from
the southwest. Pcpn is moving across MO and still expected to
arrive in western IL in the morning. Forecast still has good
handle on this. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be updating
to reflect current cloud trends. Update coming shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by Tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Clouds are still slowly exiting the area to the east. BMI, DEC,
and CMI still have broken to overcast clouds at MVFR levels. These
will eventually head east but broken cirrus has overspread all TAF
sites. As the next system advances closer to the area, clouds will
lower into the mid range to around 8kft at all sites sometime
during the morning, with SPI lower first. Models continue to show
very light snow getting to SPI only. So this is the only site
where I have cigs dropping to MVFR and having light snow/flurries
in the TAFs. All other sites will see slightly lower clouds to
around 5kft. Could be some MVFR cigs that slide over the other
sites, so will have TEMPO groups of 3-4 hrs for the others to
account for possible cigs around 3kft. During the late afternoon all
sites should see lower clouds scatter/dissipate with cirrus left
the rest of the evening. Winds will remain light and variable due
to the high pressure ridge sitting right over the area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 180309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Have already made one adjustment to cloud cover since it is not
clearing as fast as originally expected. Will be making another
adjustment for the same thing with high clouds advecting in from
the southwest. Pcpn is moving across MO and still expected to
arrive in western IL in the morning. Forecast still has good
handle on this. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be updating
to reflect current cloud trends. Update coming shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by Tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Some clearing has occurred at PIA and SPI, but clouds still remain
at BMI, DEC, and CMI. Question is that now that the sun is gone,
when will clouds push further east, clearing at the last three TAF
sites, or will it even clear there at all. All models continue to
clear lower clouds so will scatter the low clouds out later this
evening at those sites. However, all sites will be covered with
cirrus overnight. By morning, mid clouds around 8-12kft will move
into the area in advance of the next weather system. Based on the
movement of the system, very light snow will begin at SPI around
15z with cigs around 3.5kft, with vis around 5sm. The other 4
sites will not see any snow, but cigs will drop to 4-6kft. The
system will dissipate as it moves into the area, which will
improve conditions by late afternoon at all sites. Lower clouds
will diminish and then broken cirrus will be left at all sites.
Winds will be light and variable through the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten








000
FXUS63 KILX 180309
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Have already made one adjustment to cloud cover since it is not
clearing as fast as originally expected. Will be making another
adjustment for the same thing with high clouds advecting in from
the southwest. Pcpn is moving across MO and still expected to
arrive in western IL in the morning. Forecast still has good
handle on this. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be updating
to reflect current cloud trends. Update coming shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by Tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Some clearing has occurred at PIA and SPI, but clouds still remain
at BMI, DEC, and CMI. Question is that now that the sun is gone,
when will clouds push further east, clearing at the last three TAF
sites, or will it even clear there at all. All models continue to
clear lower clouds so will scatter the low clouds out later this
evening at those sites. However, all sites will be covered with
cirrus overnight. By morning, mid clouds around 8-12kft will move
into the area in advance of the next weather system. Based on the
movement of the system, very light snow will begin at SPI around
15z with cigs around 3.5kft, with vis around 5sm. The other 4
sites will not see any snow, but cigs will drop to 4-6kft. The
system will dissipate as it moves into the area, which will
improve conditions by late afternoon at all sites. Lower clouds
will diminish and then broken cirrus will be left at all sites.
Winds will be light and variable through the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 172336
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by Tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Some clearing has occurred at PIA and SPI, but clouds still remain
at BMI, DEC, and CMI. Question is that now that the sun is gone,
when will clouds push further east, clearing at the last three TAF
sites, or will it even clear there at all. All models continue to
clear lower clouds so will scatter the low clouds out later this
evening at those sites. However, all sites will be covered with
cirrus overnight. By morning, mid clouds around 8-12kft will move
into the area in advance of the next weather system. Based on the
movement of the system, very light snow will begin at SPI around
15z with cigs around 3.5kft, with vis around 5sm. The other 4
sites will not see any snow, but cigs will drop to 4-6kft. The
system will dissipate as it moves into the area, which will
improve conditions by late afternoon at all sites. Lower clouds
will diminish and then broken cirrus will be left at all sites.
Winds will be light and variable through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten







000
FXUS63 KILX 172047
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at the central Illinois terminals for
the next few hours before clearing gradually develops from west to
east across the area. 1730z visible satellite imagery shows
clearing beginning to work into the northwest KILX CWA around
Galesburg, and based on timing tools, this should reach KPIA by
around 21/22z. Will continue to monitor satellite to see if clouds
can erode faster, but for now will remain pessimistic. Clouds will
hold firm further east at KCMI until early evening when forecast
soundings finally show low-level drying. After a brief period of
mostly clear skies tonight, the next approaching system will
spread clouds back into the area on Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest VFR ceilings developing across central Illinois between 11z
and 14z. May see enough moistening of the profile to produce light
snow at KSPI after 15z, but dry conditions should prevail
elsewhere.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes








000
FXUS63 KILX 172047
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

19z/1pm satellite imagery continues to show overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois: however, the clouds are beginning
to erode northwest of the Illinois River.  While HRRR guidance has
not been particularly useful in the short-term, satellite trends
suggest skies will partially clear across all but the far E/NE KILX
CWA by early evening.  After a period of mostly clear skies early
tonight, clouds will once again begin increasing in advance of the
next storm system, which is currently evident on water vapor imagery
over west Texas.  Quite a bit of precip and even some thunder is
occurring ahead of this wave over Oklahoma/Texas: however, it is
expected to weaken as it lifts northeastward into the region on
Thursday.  It will also be coming into a dry airmass beneath a
prevailing surface ridge axis.  Forecast soundings show gradual
moistening from the top-down later tonight, but the lowest levels
below 850mb will remain quite dry through 12z.  As a result, have
maintained a dry forecast through the overnight hours.  Due to the
initially clear skies and low dewpoints, have gone a couple of
degrees below MAV guidance for lows tonight, with readings dropping
into the teens and lower 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Upper flow will be zonal for next few days, with weak waves moving
east through flow. Moisture channel data and upper air shows initial
wave to affect region over NM this morning. This system to
continue tracking to the northeast, pushing some overrunning pcpn
into MO and southern 1/2 of IL for late tonight into Thursday. Weak
vort lobe and isentropic lift to be enough to move the light snow
into southern 1/2 of CWA in the morning, but wave moving fast enough
to only affect the morning. Mainly less than half inch.

Next wave to move into region for Friday night and Saturday morning
and the area of lift with this one is farther south, mainly over
southeast cwa. Again, some light snow possible.

Upper flow starts to change on late in weekend and by Monday, flow
is northwest. Digging upper trough over Great Lakes with upper low
closing off by Monday night. This will bring some initial pcpn into
the region ahead of cold front that moves through Tuesday.
Temperatures however, are only cold enough for possible mixture
until post frontal on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore no snow
accumulation. However by tues night to Wed, only minor vort lobes
rotating around the closed upper low in the cold air, so chance of
light snow accumulations only.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR ceilings will prevail at the central Illinois terminals for
the next few hours before clearing gradually develops from west to
east across the area. 1730z visible satellite imagery shows
clearing beginning to work into the northwest KILX CWA around
Galesburg, and based on timing tools, this should reach KPIA by
around 21/22z. Will continue to monitor satellite to see if clouds
can erode faster, but for now will remain pessimistic. Clouds will
hold firm further east at KCMI until early evening when forecast
soundings finally show low-level drying. After a brief period of
mostly clear skies tonight, the next approaching system will
spread clouds back into the area on Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest VFR ceilings developing across central Illinois between 11z
and 14z. May see enough moistening of the profile to produce light
snow at KSPI after 15z, but dry conditions should prevail
elsewhere.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes







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