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000
FXUS63 KILX 171936
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A small MCS over southern MO into far northern AR associated with a
vort max with the short wave tracking ESE into mid MS river valley
into this evening and staying south of the forecast area. However
some weak isentropic lift on northern fringe of system affecting our
sw counties into mid afternoon with isolated showers and even one
or two thunderstorms. The models show this isentropic lift
diminishing later this afternoon and early evening as it shifts
southward, so going to keep a dry forecast tonight. Broken to
overcast mid level clouds should also decrease from the north while
scattered to broken cumulus clouds of 4-6k ft also dissipate late
today. Weak high pressure of 1018 mb over central IN and southeast
IL will weaken as a stronger 1024 mb Canadian high pressure over
Manitoba settles sse into the upper Great Lakes by Thu morning. This
will provide the fair weather tonight into Thu along with turning
SSE winds more ENE and staying fairly light. With some drier air
advecting in from the ne, do not think fog will be as prevalant
overnight where we had widespread dense fog in southeast IL, but can
not rule out a few patches of shallow ground fog over southern and
western areas where dewpoints will be a few degrees higher and also
had some light rain sw of Lincoln today along with extensive cloud
cover. Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s with coolest readings
from Lincoln northeast.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Weak low-level cold advection behind shortwave moving through the
area today will keep temps from warming much compared to today`s
highs despite more sunshine and increasing 500mb heights.  By Friday
afternoon 850mb temps respond to the building ridge and begin to
climb back toward seasonal normals.

Ridge begins to flatten as weekend approaches. Mid-level heights
build over western North America. Energy now off west coast is
expected to split into a weak cutoff along the California coast and
a series of shortwaves topping the developing western North America
ridge. Although the pattern shift is similar between the operational
models and NAEFS mean, the relative strength of the individual
shortwaves have implications on the timing of precip chances through
the weekend. Latest ECMWF is weaker with initial wave expected to
move across the area Saturday afternoon, while 17/12z GFS is strong
enough to produce sufficient lift and cold advection aloft for the
development of thunderstorms. 17/00z is weaker with this initial
wave and produces more spotty precip.

Despite increasing clouds, breezy south to southwest winds will
allow temps to climb into the 80s Saturday as models are consistent
in enabling 850mb temps to reach 16-18C by 12z.

Clouds may have a hard time clearing on Sunday and even some precip
is possible during the day in southeast Illinois as second wave in
the trough moves across the area.  Low-level cold advection kicks in
Sunday Night following this second wave, but mid-level heights begin
climbing again by Monday Night. Although, temps will likely be below
normal through midweek, the models no longer reflect the very cold
temperatures that were progged by the EMCWF several days ago.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Carried chance of rain showers at SPI until mid afternoon with
vsbys 5-7 miles as isolated showers drift ESE. May need to carry
VCSH at DEC but think brunt of showers will pass sw of Decatur.
Showers and thunderstorms with small MCS over southern MO to track
ESE into mid MS river valley during afternoon and we will be on ne
fringe of this weather system today with some isentropic lift
supporting the isolated showers in our sw counties. Scattered to
broken clouds of 3-5k ft to occur this afternoon along with broken
to mid level clouds around 9k ft and scattered at times along I-74
TAF sites of PIA...BMI and CMI. Clouds should decrease later this
afternoon and early evening leaving fair skies tonight. SSW winds
5-10 kts this afternoon to become light ENE this evening and then
east around 6 kts Thu morning. Have light fog with vsbys 4-6 miles
from 08Z-14Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...07







000
FXUS63 KILX 171756
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated the forecast earlier this morning to cancel the dense fog
advisory at 9 am over southeast IL. Also increased cloud cover
today especially over central and sw portion of CWA and added 20%
chance of showers along and sw of Rushville to Springfield and
Taylorville line into early afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70F looks on track this afternoon with south to southeast
winds less than 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Small MCS over southern MO is tracking ese into mid MS river
valley today and brunt of its showers and thunderstorms will stay
south of central IL CWA. Just a few showers from Schuyler county
south and tracking ese across sw portion of CWA into early
afternoon. Broken to overcast clouds from 5-10k ft as far ne as
Lacon to Decatur to Olney should break up during the afteroon.
Weak surface high pressure over 1018 mb over IN to drift east
across Ohio river valley this afternoon and be close enough to
central IL to keep winds fairly light. Temperatures currently in
the upper 50s and lower 60s shoudl climb another 10 degrees once
sunshine reappears during the mid/late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Carried chance of rain showers at SPI until mid afternoon with
vsbys 5-7 miles as isolated showers drift ESE. May need to carry
VCSH at DEC but think brunt of showers will pass sw of Decatur.
Showers and thunderstorms with small MCS over southern MO to track
ESE into mid MS river valley during afternoon and we will be on ne
fringe of this weather system today with some isentropic lift
supporting the isolated showers in our sw counties. Scattered to
broken clouds of 3-5k ft to occur this afternoon along with broken
to mid level clouds around 9k ft and scattered at times along I-74
TAF sites of PIA...BMI and CMI. Clouds should decrease later this
afternoon and early evening leaving fair skies tonight. SSW winds
5-10 kts this afternoon to become light ENE this evening and then
east around 6 kts Thu morning. Have light fog with vsbys 4-6 miles
from 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07








000
FXUS63 KILX 171756
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated the forecast earlier this morning to cancel the dense fog
advisory at 9 am over southeast IL. Also increased cloud cover
today especially over central and sw portion of CWA and added 20%
chance of showers along and sw of Rushville to Springfield and
Taylorville line into early afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70F looks on track this afternoon with south to southeast
winds less than 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Small MCS over southern MO is tracking ese into mid MS river
valley today and brunt of its showers and thunderstorms will stay
south of central IL CWA. Just a few showers from Schuyler county
south and tracking ese across sw portion of CWA into early
afternoon. Broken to overcast clouds from 5-10k ft as far ne as
Lacon to Decatur to Olney should break up during the afteroon.
Weak surface high pressure over 1018 mb over IN to drift east
across Ohio river valley this afternoon and be close enough to
central IL to keep winds fairly light. Temperatures currently in
the upper 50s and lower 60s shoudl climb another 10 degrees once
sunshine reappears during the mid/late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Carried chance of rain showers at SPI until mid afternoon with
vsbys 5-7 miles as isolated showers drift ESE. May need to carry
VCSH at DEC but think brunt of showers will pass sw of Decatur.
Showers and thunderstorms with small MCS over southern MO to track
ESE into mid MS river valley during afternoon and we will be on ne
fringe of this weather system today with some isentropic lift
supporting the isolated showers in our sw counties. Scattered to
broken clouds of 3-5k ft to occur this afternoon along with broken
to mid level clouds around 9k ft and scattered at times along I-74
TAF sites of PIA...BMI and CMI. Clouds should decrease later this
afternoon and early evening leaving fair skies tonight. SSW winds
5-10 kts this afternoon to become light ENE this evening and then
east around 6 kts Thu morning. Have light fog with vsbys 4-6 miles
from 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07









000
FXUS63 KILX 171527
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1027 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated the forecast earlier this morning to cancel the dense fog
advisory at 9 am over southeast IL. Also increased cloud cover
today especially over central and sw portion of CWA and added 20%
chance of showers along and sw of Rushville to Springfield and
Taylorville line into early afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70F looks on track this afternoon with south to southeast
winds less than 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Small MCS over southern MO is tracking ese into mid MS river
valley today and brunt of its showers and thunderstorms will stay
south of central IL CWA. Just a few showers from Schuyler county
south and tracking ese across sw portion of CWA into early
afternoon. Broken to overcast clouds from 5-10k ft as far ne as
Lacon to Decatur to Olney should break up during the afteroon.
Weak surface high pressure over 1018 mb over IN to drift east
across Ohio river valley this afternoon and be close enough to
central IL to keep winds fairly light. Temperatures currently in
the upper 50s and lower 60s shoudl climb another 10 degrees once
sunshine reappears during the mid/late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Patchy, mainly MVFR, early morning fog to start the day across the
central Illinois terminals. Patchy fog is likely to redevelop
again tonight toward the end of the forecast period. Otherwise,
periods of VFR cigs are expected into this afternoon, with clear
skies likely tonight. Light/variable winds with a ridge of high
pressure nearby today, will trend light/northeast for tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK










000
FXUS63 KILX 171527
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1027 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated the forecast earlier this morning to cancel the dense fog
advisory at 9 am over southeast IL. Also increased cloud cover
today especially over central and sw portion of CWA and added 20%
chance of showers along and sw of Rushville to Springfield and
Taylorville line into early afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70F looks on track this afternoon with south to southeast
winds less than 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Small MCS over southern MO is tracking ese into mid MS river
valley today and brunt of its showers and thunderstorms will stay
south of central IL CWA. Just a few showers from Schuyler county
south and tracking ese across sw portion of CWA into early
afternoon. Broken to overcast clouds from 5-10k ft as far ne as
Lacon to Decatur to Olney should break up during the afteroon.
Weak surface high pressure over 1018 mb over IN to drift east
across Ohio river valley this afternoon and be close enough to
central IL to keep winds fairly light. Temperatures currently in
the upper 50s and lower 60s shoudl climb another 10 degrees once
sunshine reappears during the mid/late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Patchy, mainly MVFR, early morning fog to start the day across the
central Illinois terminals. Patchy fog is likely to redevelop
again tonight toward the end of the forecast period. Otherwise,
periods of VFR cigs are expected into this afternoon, with clear
skies likely tonight. Light/variable winds with a ridge of high
pressure nearby today, will trend light/northeast for tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK









000
FXUS63 KILX 171156
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Patchy, mainly MVFR, early morning fog to start the day across the
central Illinois terminals. Patchy fog is likely to redevelop
again tonight toward the end of the forecast period. Otherwise,
periods of VFR cigs are expected into this afternoon, with clear
skies likely tonight. Light/variable winds with a ridge of high
pressure nearby today, will trend light/northeast for tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 170739
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas mainly KTAZ-KPRG southward
could see lower values due to higher dew points and less cloud
cover expected overnight. Visibility locally down to VLIFR
category is possible. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud
cover expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...ONTON








000
FXUS63 KILX 170739
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory across portions of east-central
and southeast Illinois to account for rapidly expanding dense fog.
This dense fog is forming along a northeast-southwest surface ridge
axis, in an area with near zero surface temperature/dew point
spreads and calm winds. It is not entirely clear how far north and
west of the ridge axis a dense fog threat exists, as winds are dead
calm across most of the forecast area. However, a small
temperature/dew point spread exists north/west of the current Dense
Fog Advisory area, and some mid clouds are beginning to spill across
central Illinois from a short wave moving through the plains. These
factors lead me to believe the current advisory should be sufficient.

Aside from the locally dense morning fog, the only forecast problem
for the day revolves around the precipitation threat (if any) from
the wave moving through the Plains. Some of the model guidance is
suggesting the far southern part of the forecast area may be brushed
by light rainfall later today. However, think these precipitation
forecasts are likely too far north. The model consensus has the vort
max with the short wave staying south of the forecast area, along
with the bulk of the isentropic lift ahead of the wave. These
factors, combined with the dry air mass currently in place, support
continuing with our current dry forecast for today. Temperatures
today are likely to be similar to yesterday`s. While weak low
level warm air advection will be taking place, it is likely to be
offset to some degree by additional cloud cover today.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

High pressure over the Great Lakes to keep us in a dry east to
northeast flow into Thursday evening. After that, incoming shortwave
from the northwest comes into play. As with the daytime models, the
evening runs have continued the trend that the remnant moisture from
Odile will probably make it about as far as Missouri before shunting
southeast, so the incoming wave never really draws from it. This
lessens the threat of widespread heavy rain. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely remain dry through Saturday, while rain chances
increase across the northwest during the afternoon, and the best
chances occur Saturday night.

Sunday may be a bit of a question mark. The GFS and Canadian models
both have a rather clean frontal passage with lingering rain ending
in the morning. However, the latest ECMWF slows the front as a
surface low forms over Kansas, lingering rain across the south half
of the forecast area into Sunday evening. There may be a bit of a
feedback issue with that solution, so will maintain the dry
conditions by Sunday evening.

Rather large surface high will dominate the Midwest early next week,
with dry conditions for a few days.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas mainly KTAZ-KPRG southward
could see lower values due to higher dew points and less cloud
cover expected overnight. Visibility locally down to VLIFR
category is possible. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud
cover expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...ONTON







000
FXUS63 KILX 170430
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Diurnal cumulus cloud cover that was prevalent from about I-57
southward has mostly dissipated this evening as daytime heating
has ended in combination with a 500 mb shortwave ridge bringing
subsidence aloft. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the
early portions of the night then some mid-level cloud cover will
move in late in the night in conjunction with a weak shortwave
trough approaching from the west. Have made minor updates to cloud
cover to account for this. Patchy fog in forecast Wednesday
morning for areas south of I-74 continues to look good as higher
dewpoints and clearer skies expected in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas mainly KTAZ-KPRG southward
could see lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud
cover expected overnight. Visibility locally down to VLIFR
category is possible. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud
cover expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON








000
FXUS63 KILX 170430
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Diurnal cumulus cloud cover that was prevalent from about I-57
southward has mostly dissipated this evening as daytime heating
has ended in combination with a 500 mb shortwave ridge bringing
subsidence aloft. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the
early portions of the night then some mid-level cloud cover will
move in late in the night in conjunction with a weak shortwave
trough approaching from the west. Have made minor updates to cloud
cover to account for this. Patchy fog in forecast Wednesday
morning for areas south of I-74 continues to look good as higher
dewpoints and clearer skies expected in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas mainly KTAZ-KPRG southward
could see lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud
cover expected overnight. Visibility locally down to VLIFR
category is possible. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud
cover expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON









000
FXUS63 KILX 170143
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Diurnal cumulus cloud cover that was prevalent from about I-57
southward has mostly dissipated this evening as daytime heating
has ended in combination with a 500 mb shortwave ridge bringing
subsidence aloft. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the
early portions of the night then some mid-level cloud cover will
move in late in the night in conjunction with a weak shortwave
trough approaching from the west. Have made minor updates to cloud
cover to account for this. Patchy fog in forecast Wednesday
morning for areas south of I-74 continues to look good as higher
dewpoints and clearer skies expected in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas KTAZ-KPRG southward could see
lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud cover expected
overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud cover
expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON









000
FXUS63 KILX 170143
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Diurnal cumulus cloud cover that was prevalent from about I-57
southward has mostly dissipated this evening as daytime heating
has ended in combination with a 500 mb shortwave ridge bringing
subsidence aloft. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the
early portions of the night then some mid-level cloud cover will
move in late in the night in conjunction with a weak shortwave
trough approaching from the west. Have made minor updates to cloud
cover to account for this. Patchy fog in forecast Wednesday
morning for areas south of I-74 continues to look good as higher
dewpoints and clearer skies expected in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas KTAZ-KPRG southward could see
lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud cover expected
overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud cover
expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON








000
FXUS63 KILX 162313
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
613 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas KTAZ-KPRG southward could see
lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud cover expected
overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud cover
expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON








000
FXUS63 KILX 162313
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
613 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas KTAZ-KPRG southward could see
lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud cover expected
overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud cover
expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON







000
FXUS63 KILX 161948
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
Light and variable winds throughout the pd under a building sfc
ridge. Main issue becomes the retreat of the stratus in the srn
terminals...OVC in DEC and BKN in both CMI and SPI, hanging close
to the MVFR/VFR break. Per vis sat imagery, the stratus erodes and
is replaced by a blooming cu field almost immediately. Given this
trend...am leaving current conditions until about an hour or two
before sunset as the cu field breaks up. For now, fog mention is
still MVFR, though the lingering llvl moisture in the south will
lend itself to lower vis in the srn terminals should it not be
able to mix out by max heating this afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 161948
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
Light and variable winds throughout the pd under a building sfc
ridge. Main issue becomes the retreat of the stratus in the srn
terminals...OVC in DEC and BKN in both CMI and SPI, hanging close
to the MVFR/VFR break. Per vis sat imagery, the stratus erodes and
is replaced by a blooming cu field almost immediately. Given this
trend...am leaving current conditions until about an hour or two
before sunset as the cu field breaks up. For now, fog mention is
still MVFR, though the lingering llvl moisture in the south will
lend itself to lower vis in the srn terminals should it not be
able to mix out by max heating this afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 161725
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
High pressure building into the region will keep the weather quiet
and rather non-eventful throughout today. Stratus slowly
retreating to the south as cooler air filters in. Temps on track
for highs into the 60s, with mostly sunny across the nrn portions
of the state... and mostly cloudy and slowly clearing in the
southern half. Most cu development should be tempered a bit in the
north by synoptic subsidence. The southern half of the state will
likely see more in the way of cu, as seen on current vis sat
imagery. Very minor adjustments to the hourly grids and no update
anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
Light and variable winds throughout the pd under a building sfc
ridge. Main issue becomes the retreat of the stratus in the srn
terminals...OVC in DEC and BKN in both CMI and SPI, hanging close
to the MVFR/VFR break. Per vis sat imagery, the stratus erodes and
is replaced by a blooming cu field almost immediately. Given this
trend...am leaving current conditions until about an hour or two
before sunset as the cu field breaks up. For now, fog mention is
still MVFR, though the lingering llvl moisture in the south will
lend itself to lower vis in the srn terminals should it not be
able to mix out by max heating this afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 161549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
High pressure building into the region will keep the weather quiet
and rather non-eventful throughout today. Stratus slowly
retreating to the south as cooler air filters in. Temps on track
for highs into the 60s, with mostly sunny across the nrn portions
of the state... and mostly cloudy and slowly clearing in the
southern half. Most cu development should be tempered a bit in the
north by synoptic subsidence. The southern half of the state will
likely see more in the way of cu, as seen on current vis sat
imagery. Very minor adjustments to the hourly grids and no update
anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
The primary exception will be early this morning. A large area of
post-frontal IFR/MVFR cigs have dropped just south of the area,
but patchy stratus/fog have developed in its wake. While an hour
or two of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible over the next couple
hours, it should burn off quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, cloud cover should be minimal. Patchy fog is possible
again late tonight, but a day of nearly full sun should keep
chances minimal. The arrival of the center of the surface high
should keep winds light/variable overall.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 161549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
High pressure building into the region will keep the weather quiet
and rather non-eventful throughout today. Stratus slowly
retreating to the south as cooler air filters in. Temps on track
for highs into the 60s, with mostly sunny across the nrn portions
of the state... and mostly cloudy and slowly clearing in the
southern half. Most cu development should be tempered a bit in the
north by synoptic subsidence. The southern half of the state will
likely see more in the way of cu, as seen on current vis sat
imagery. Very minor adjustments to the hourly grids and no update
anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
The primary exception will be early this morning. A large area of
post-frontal IFR/MVFR cigs have dropped just south of the area,
but patchy stratus/fog have developed in its wake. While an hour
or two of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible over the next couple
hours, it should burn off quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, cloud cover should be minimal. Patchy fog is possible
again late tonight, but a day of nearly full sun should keep
chances minimal. The arrival of the center of the surface high
should keep winds light/variable overall.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 161155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
The primary exception will be early this morning. A large area of
post-frontal IFR/MVFR cigs have dropped just south of the area,
but patchy stratus/fog have developed in its wake. While an hour
or two of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible over the next couple
hours, it should burn off quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, cloud cover should be minimal. Patchy fog is possible
again late tonight, but a day of nearly full sun should keep
chances minimal. The arrival of the center of the surface high
should keep winds light/variable overall.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 161155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
The primary exception will be early this morning. A large area of
post-frontal IFR/MVFR cigs have dropped just south of the area,
but patchy stratus/fog have developed in its wake. While an hour
or two of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible over the next couple
hours, it should burn off quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, cloud cover should be minimal. Patchy fog is possible
again late tonight, but a day of nearly full sun should keep
chances minimal. The arrival of the center of the surface high
should keep winds light/variable overall.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 160730
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Precip has departed well to the southeast of all terminal sites,
with clearing of the clouds expected to reach PIA by 05z and
progressing to CMI/DEC around 0730z. Still expect some fog
formation after the clearing develops, with a few areas developing
VLIFR ceilings and fog. A bit of a tough call on timing and
coverage of any dense fog, but for now BMI and CMI were the only
two locations with LIFR/VLIFR conditions between 11z-13z. The
latest HRRR keeps low vis east of CMI, with lingering low clouds
after midnight at all sites by PIA. It is possible that a stratus
layer forms instead of ground fog, but will lean toward fog
formation with this set of TAFs.

Skies should clear out quickly Tues morning with very dry air
above the shallow layer of moisture. Clear skies will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period to 06z/16.

Winds have become N behind the departing cold front, with a brief
increase in wind speeds to 10-12kt. Light winds should prevail the
remainder of the night and into Tuesday, as high pressure keeps
the pressure gradient weak.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 160730
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Quiet weather expected overall today across central and southeast
Illinois. Canadian high pressure and its associated dry air mass will
continue to build into the area today, helping to scour out the low
clouds that currently reside across much of the forecast area. The
low clouds have been clearing slowly from the north as the high
builds in, and the latest trends suggest the clearing should reach
the I-70 corridor by 10 a.m. this morning. Once the skies clear,
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, as forecast soundings and CU
rule suggest diurnal cloud development should be minimal. The
possible exception to the clearing sticking, at least until sunrise,
is the potential for fog/stratus development. This development has
been patchy thus far upstream, and do not expect it to become too
widespread. Temperatures today, as they have been more often than
not lately, will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
mid-upper 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure building southeast into the Great Lakes to dominate
our weather through Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate some sort of MCS type activity across Missouri and Kansas
Wednesday into Thursday, sliding along the edge of the upper ridge
that will slowly inch eastward into the Plains. However, the
persistent east/northeast flow over our area should keep this
precipitation at bay.

Significant shortwave will dig as it crosses the Rockies on Friday,
settling into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Have largely
kept the forecast dry through about midday Saturday, then quickly
increased the PoP`s from west to east during the afternoon and
evening hours, as the front arrives. One significant item of concern
is with the potential for heavy rain. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Odile over Baja California will be spreading into the Desert
Southwest over the next day or so. The latest GFS model continues to
show that a piece of energy and associated moisture from this system
will be drawn northeast into the northern wave, reaching central
Illinois after midnight Saturday night with the potential for a few
inches of rain. The ECMWF and Canadian models are not quite as
generous on this point, but do draw in some of the moisture into the
wave by Saturday morning and produce weekend rainfalls of up to 1.5
inches. Have increased PoP`s Saturday night to around 60% across
most of the forecast area, as confidence increases in the general
rainfall trend over the area. Continued the PoP`s on Sunday east of
I-55, although this should be winding down during the afternoon as
the front exits the area.

A large broad upper trough will persist over the Midwest early next
week in the wake of this system. Latest ECMWF model has
significantly backed down on the amount of cool air with this
system, with 850 mb temperatures on Monday now around +5C rather
than the -2C from the previous run. The GFS lags behind the ECMWF
with bringing the cooler conditions into the area. As a result, have
kept highs in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, with the coolest
conditions just beyond the current forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Precip has departed well to the southeast of all terminal sites,
with clearing of the clouds expected to reach PIA by 05z and
progressing to CMI/DEC around 0730z. Still expect some fog
formation after the clearing develops, with a few areas developing
VLIFR ceilings and fog. A bit of a tough call on timing and
coverage of any dense fog, but for now BMI and CMI were the only
two locations with LIFR/VLIFR conditions between 11z-13z. The
latest HRRR keeps low vis east of CMI, with lingering low clouds
after midnight at all sites by PIA. It is possible that a stratus
layer forms instead of ground fog, but will lean toward fog
formation with this set of TAFs.

Skies should clear out quickly Tues morning with very dry air
above the shallow layer of moisture. Clear skies will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period to 06z/16.

Winds have become N behind the departing cold front, with a brief
increase in wind speeds to 10-12kt. Light winds should prevail the
remainder of the night and into Tuesday, as high pressure keeps
the pressure gradient weak.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 160438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Precip has departed well to the southeast of all terminal sites,
with clearing of the clouds expected to reach PIA by 05z and
progressing to CMI/DEC around 0730z. Still expect some fog
formation after the clearing develops, with a few areas developing
VLIFR ceilings and fog. A bit of a tough call on timing and
coverage of any dense fog, but for now BMI and CMI were the only
two locations with LIFR/VLIFR conditions between 11z-13z. The
latest HRRR keeps low vis east of CMI, with lingering low clouds
after midnight at all sites by PIA. It is possible that a stratus
layer forms instead of ground fog, but will lean toward fog
formation with this set of TAFs.

Skies should clear out quickly Tues morning with very dry air
above the shallow layer of moisture. Clear skies will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period to 06z/16.

Winds have become N behind the departing cold front, with a brief
increase in wind speeds to 10-12kt. Light winds should prevail the
remainder of the night and into Tuesday, as high pressure keeps
the pressure gradient weak.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 160438
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Precip has departed well to the southeast of all terminal sites,
with clearing of the clouds expected to reach PIA by 05z and
progressing to CMI/DEC around 0730z. Still expect some fog
formation after the clearing develops, with a few areas developing
VLIFR ceilings and fog. A bit of a tough call on timing and
coverage of any dense fog, but for now BMI and CMI were the only
two locations with LIFR/VLIFR conditions between 11z-13z. The
latest HRRR keeps low vis east of CMI, with lingering low clouds
after midnight at all sites by PIA. It is possible that a stratus
layer forms instead of ground fog, but will lean toward fog
formation with this set of TAFs.

Skies should clear out quickly Tues morning with very dry air
above the shallow layer of moisture. Clear skies will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period to 06z/16.

Winds have become N behind the departing cold front, with a brief
increase in wind speeds to 10-12kt. Light winds should prevail the
remainder of the night and into Tuesday, as high pressure keeps
the pressure gradient weak.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 160207 CCA
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected format
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and/or drizzle will linger for another hour or two at the
terminal sites except PIA, which is seeing ceiling heights rise to
VFR periodically due to dry air mixing down already. Satellite and
observations are indicating MVFR will return to PIA for several
more hours before some clearing arrives. CMI is the only LIFR
site, with IFR at SPI/BMI/DEC due to low cigs and vis. Forecast
soundings and HRRR output still show progressively improving
conditions by late evening, with high pressure building behind the
departing cold front. Therefore, have kept the clearing trends in
the cloud cover, with fog formation likely in any areas that clear
out. Went LIFR or VLIFR fog FROM 11Z-13Z for the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI, and IFR at SPI/DEC. The timing may need
to be adjusted, but feeling more confident that low level moisture
will become low stratus and fog across the board.

VFR conditions should develop quickly Tuesday morning with mixing
of very dry air just above the moisture layer.

Any residual WNW winds will become N by late evening behind the
front. A few gusts to 18kt will be possible for an hour or two
past FROPA, then light winds should develop the rest of the night
and into Tuesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON










000
FXUS63 KILX 160207 CCA
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected format
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and/or drizzle will linger for another hour or two at the
terminal sites except PIA, which is seeing ceiling heights rise to
VFR periodically due to dry air mixing down already. Satellite and
observations are indicating MVFR will return to PIA for several
more hours before some clearing arrives. CMI is the only LIFR
site, with IFR at SPI/BMI/DEC due to low cigs and vis. Forecast
soundings and HRRR output still show progressively improving
conditions by late evening, with high pressure building behind the
departing cold front. Therefore, have kept the clearing trends in
the cloud cover, with fog formation likely in any areas that clear
out. Went LIFR or VLIFR fog FROM 11Z-13Z for the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI, and IFR at SPI/DEC. The timing may need
to be adjusted, but feeling more confident that low level moisture
will become low stratus and fog across the board.

VFR conditions should develop quickly Tuesday morning with mixing
of very dry air just above the moisture layer.

Any residual WNW winds will become N by late evening behind the
front. A few gusts to 18kt will be possible for an hour or two
past FROPA, then light winds should develop the rest of the night
and into Tuesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON









000
FXUS63 KILX 160204
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
904 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

STORM SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY.  SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHOWERS HINT TO THE MAIN ISSUES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP UP
THIS EVENING BUT WET, MISTY, AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AT LEAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND A BIT AFTER THE WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH THE NW/N WINDS.  COOLER TONIGHT...BUT COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME CLEARING.  TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT LOCALLY IF
THE CIGS CLEAR IN THE OVERNIGHT.  EITHER WAY, ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW,
QUESTION IS BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.  STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING AND SEE NO REASON TO BREAK THAT TREND, SO ONLY PUTTING IN
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE MIDWEST TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND A
CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
RAIN-FREE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE-SPRINGFIELD LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF THAT FOR NOW AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS
TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. A RETURN,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 75-80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL.

WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WEST OF I-57 SATURDAY, AND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST LATER SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE,
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION, EJECTING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WOULD EASILY
RESULT IN 1-3" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT
BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. AS A RESULT, WILL WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING
A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE
TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT PIA, WHICH IS SEEING CEILING HEIGHTS RISE TO
VFR PERIODICALLY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN ALREADY. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING MVFR WILL RETURN TO PIA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE SOME CLEARING ARRIVES. CMI IS THE ONLY LIFR
SITE, WITH IFR AT SPI/BMI/DEC DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT STILL SHOW PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE CLEARING TRENDS IN
THE CLOUD COVER, WITH FOG FORMATION LIKELY IN ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR
OUT. WENT LIFR OR VLIFR FOG FROM 11Z-13Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI/CMI, AND IFR AT SPI/DEC. THE TIMING MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED, BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE BOARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MIXING
OF VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER.

ANY RESIDUAL WNW WINDS WILL BECOME N BY LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST FROPA, THEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 160204
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
904 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and drizzle are departing quickly to the southeast, with
the back edge of the clouds approaching faster than previously
expected as well. The latest HRRR is indicating a band of low
clouds are expected to redevelop behind the clearing, moving into
our counties from the northeast toward Lake Michigan. Low level
wind patterns and obs from that area show some support for that
solution. Have updated the sky grids to acknowledge both the
initial clearing and subsequent clouds from the NE for a few hours
after. Any areas that clear out will have a good chance of seeing
fog develop. The light winds later tonight could set the stage for
locally dense fog, especially NW of I-55 where clearing will
develop sooner. Dewpoints will remain relatively high for enough
hours after clearing that lows will drop very close to the
dewpoint in those areas. Added fog to the weather grids
accordingly. Updated info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

STORM SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY.  SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHOWERS HINT TO THE MAIN ISSUES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP UP
THIS EVENING BUT WET, MISTY, AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AT LEAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND A BIT AFTER THE WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH THE NW/N WINDS.  COOLER TONIGHT...BUT COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME CLEARING.  TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT LOCALLY IF
THE CIGS CLEAR IN THE OVERNIGHT.  EITHER WAY, ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW,
QUESTION IS BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.  STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING AND SEE NO REASON TO BREAK THAT TREND, SO ONLY PUTTING IN
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE MIDWEST TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND A
CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
RAIN-FREE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE-SPRINGFIELD LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF THAT FOR NOW AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS
TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. A RETURN,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 75-80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL.

WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WEST OF I-57 SATURDAY, AND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST LATER SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE,
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION, EJECTING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WOULD EASILY
RESULT IN 1-3" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT
BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. AS A RESULT, WILL WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING
A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE
TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT PIA, WHICH IS SEEING CEILING HEIGHTS RISE TO
VFR PERIODICALLY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN ALREADY. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING MVFR WILL RETURN TO PIA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE SOME CLEARING ARRIVES. CMI IS THE ONLY LIFR
SITE, WITH IFR AT SPI/BMI/DEC DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT STILL SHOW PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE CLEARING TRENDS IN
THE CLOUD COVER, WITH FOG FORMATION LIKELY IN ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR
OUT. WENT LIFR OR VLIFR FOG FROM 11Z-13Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI/CMI, AND IFR AT SPI/DEC. THE TIMING MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED, BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE BOARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MIXING
OF VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER.

ANY RESIDUAL WNW WINDS WILL BECOME N BY LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST FROPA, THEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON









000
FXUS63 KILX 160015 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
715 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

STORM SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY.  SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHOWERS HINT TO THE MAIN ISSUES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP UP
THIS EVENING BUT WET, MISTY, AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AT LEAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND A BIT AFTER THE WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH THE NW/N WINDS.  COOLER TONIGHT...BUT COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME CLEARING.  TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT LOCALLY IF
THE CIGS CLEAR IN THE OVERNIGHT.  EITHER WAY, ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW,
QUESTION IS BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.  STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING AND SEE NO REASON TO BREAK THAT TREND, SO ONLY PUTTING IN
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE MIDWEST TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND A
CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
RAIN-FREE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE-SPRINGFIELD LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF THAT FOR NOW AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS
TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. A RETURN,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 75-80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL.

WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WEST OF I-57 SATURDAY, AND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST LATER SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE,
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION, EJECTING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WOULD EASILY
RESULT IN 1-3" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT
BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. AS A RESULT, WILL WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING
A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE
TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT PIA, WHICH IS SEEING CEILING HEIGHTS RISE TO
VFR PERIODICALLY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN ALREADY. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING MVFR WILL RETURN TO PIA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE SOME CLEARING ARRIVES. CMI IS THE ONLY LIFR
SITE, WITH IFR AT SPI/BMI/DEC DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT STILL SHOW PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE CLEARING TRENDS IN
THE CLOUD COVER, WITH FOG FORMATION LIKELY IN ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR
OUT. WENT LIFR OR VLIFR FOG FROM 11Z-13Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI/CMI, AND IFR AT SPI/DEC. THE TIMING MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED, BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE BOARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MIXING
OF VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER.

ANY RESIDUAL WNW WINDS WILL BECOME N BY LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST FROPA, THEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON










000
FXUS63 KILX 160015 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
715 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

STORM SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY.  SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHOWERS HINT TO THE MAIN ISSUES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WRAP UP
THIS EVENING BUT WET, MISTY, AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AT LEAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND A BIT AFTER THE WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH THE NW/N WINDS.  COOLER TONIGHT...BUT COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME CLEARING.  TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT LOCALLY IF
THE CIGS CLEAR IN THE OVERNIGHT.  EITHER WAY, ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW,
QUESTION IS BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.  STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING AND SEE NO REASON TO BREAK THAT TREND, SO ONLY PUTTING IN
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD THE MIDWEST TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND A
CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
RAIN-FREE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE-SPRINGFIELD LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
MENTION OF THAT FOR NOW AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS
TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. A RETURN,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 75-80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL.

WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WEST OF I-57 SATURDAY, AND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST LATER SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACCORDING TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE,
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION, EJECTING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WOULD EASILY
RESULT IN 1-3" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT
BUYING INTO THIS SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. AS A RESULT, WILL WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING
A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE
TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT PIA, WHICH IS SEEING CEILING HEIGHTS RISE TO
VFR PERIODICALLY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING DOWN ALREADY. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING MVFR WILL RETURN TO PIA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE SOME CLEARING ARRIVES. CMI IS THE ONLY LIFR
SITE, WITH IFR AT SPI/BMI/DEC DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT STILL SHOW PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE CLEARING TRENDS IN
THE CLOUD COVER, WITH FOG FORMATION LIKELY IN ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR
OUT. WENT LIFR OR VLIFR FOG FROM 11Z-13Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI/CMI, AND IFR AT SPI/DEC. THE TIMING MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED, BUT FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE BOARD.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MIXING
OF VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER.

ANY RESIDUAL WNW WINDS WILL BECOME N BY LATE EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST FROPA, THEN LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON









000
FXUS63 KILX 160005
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
705 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and/or drizzle will linger for another hour or two at the
terminal sites except PIA, which is seeing ceiling heights rise to
VFR periodically due to dry air mixing down already. Satellite and
observations are indicating MVFR will return to PIA for several
more hours before some clearing arrives. CMI is the only LIFR
site, with IFR at SPI/BMI/DEC due to low cigs and vis. Forecast
soundings and HRRR output still show progressively improving
conditions by late evening, with high pressure building behind the
departing cold front. Therefore, have kept the clearing trends in
the cloud cover, with fog formation likely in any areas that clear
out. Went LIFR or VLIFR fog FROM 11Z-13Z for the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI, and IFR at SPI/DEC. The timing may need
to be adjusted, but feeling more confident that low level moisture
will become low stratus and fog across the board.

VFR conditions should develop quickly Tuesday morning with mixing
of very dry air just above the moisture layer.

Any residual WNW winds will become N by late evening behind the
front. A few gusts to 18kt will be possible for an hour or two
past FROPA, then light winds should develop the rest of the night
and into Tuesday.

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon.
Conditions improving to MVFR later this evening and through the
night. Scattering out the low clouds per time heights in both the
GFS and the NAM as well as HRRR. At time of issuance, PIA cigs at
500 ft were isolated. However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and
C75 have both dropped, which is in line with a progression of the
IFR line behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain
after 20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and
will likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker
will assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started
the trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue
with some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated,
but will amend accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 160005
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
705 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Showers and/or drizzle will linger for another hour or two at the
terminal sites except PIA, which is seeing ceiling heights rise to
VFR periodically due to dry air mixing down already. Satellite and
observations are indicating MVFR will return to PIA for several
more hours before some clearing arrives. CMI is the only LIFR
site, with IFR at SPI/BMI/DEC due to low cigs and vis. Forecast
soundings and HRRR output still show progressively improving
conditions by late evening, with high pressure building behind the
departing cold front. Therefore, have kept the clearing trends in
the cloud cover, with fog formation likely in any areas that clear
out. Went LIFR or VLIFR fog FROM 11Z-13Z for the northern
terminals of PIA/BMI/CMI, and IFR at SPI/DEC. The timing may need
to be adjusted, but feeling more confident that low level moisture
will become low stratus and fog across the board.

VFR conditions should develop quickly Tuesday morning with mixing
of very dry air just above the moisture layer.

Any residual WNW winds will become N by late evening behind the
front. A few gusts to 18kt will be possible for an hour or two
past FROPA, then light winds should develop the rest of the night
and into Tuesday.

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon.
Conditions improving to MVFR later this evening and through the
night. Scattering out the low clouds per time heights in both the
GFS and the NAM as well as HRRR. At time of issuance, PIA cigs at
500 ft were isolated. However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and
C75 have both dropped, which is in line with a progression of the
IFR line behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain
after 20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and
will likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker
will assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started
the trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue
with some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated,
but will amend accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 152021
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Missisippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon. Conditions improving to
MVFR later this evening and through the night. Scattering out the
low clouds per time heights in both the GFS and the NAM as well as
HRRR.  At time of issuance, PIA cigs at 500 ft were isolated.
However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and C75 have both
dropped, which is in line with a progression of the IFR line
behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain after
20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and will
likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker will
assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started the
trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue with
some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated, but
will amend accordingly.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 152021
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Storm system still impacting Central Illinois ahead of an
approaching boundary.  Some low clouds and developing fog in the
wake of the showers hint to the main issues going into the overnight
hours tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin to wrap up
this evening but wet, misty, and low clouds should continue for a
little while at least.  Satellite imagery showing the low clouds
hanging around a bit after the wind shift/boundary moves through
with the NW/N winds.  Cooler tonight...but coolest in the NW where
most likely to see some clearing.  Temps may bottom out locally if
the cigs clear in the overnight.  Either way, enhanced llvl moisture
will bring with it the chance for fog development.  For now,
question is between dense fog and very low stratus.  Stratus already
developing and see no reason to break that trend, so only putting in
patchy fog mention in the overnight hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The medium and long range models are in generally good agreement
that a progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate through
the next seven days.

Surface high pressure from the northern Plains will work its way
toward the Midwest Tuesday, resulting in a clearing sky and a
continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. A weak shortwave
trough in the upper level northwest flow will approach the
mid-Missisippi River valley Wednesday. However, an abundance of dry
air in the lower levels should keep central and eastern IL
rain-free. Would not be surprised to see a sprinkle or two in areas
southwest of a Rushville-Springfield line. Will hold off on the
mention of that for now as the favorable moisture and lift appears
to stay along and west of the MS River.

Anticyclonic low level flow will continue to dominate through
Thursday and Friday keeping rain out of the forecast. A return,
southerly flow Friday will finally allow temperatures to climb
toward seasonal levels in the 75-80 range across most of central and
southeast IL.

Will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast west of I-57 Saturday, and across all of central and
eastern IL Saturday night. The European and GFS models are actually
in quite good agreement that an upper level trough will advance from
the Rockies Friday to the Midwest later Saturday. The southerly low
level flow will advect plenty of moisture ahead of the surface cold
front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. However, there is the
potential for heavy rain from this system, particularly according to
the GFS solution. The GFS depicts the remnants of Hurricane Odile,
currently in the southern California Baja region, ejecting toward
the central U.S. with deep tropical moisture. This would easily
result in 1-3" of rain across much of the forecast area Saturday
into early Sunday. However, the European and Canadian models are not
buying into this solution at the moment. As a result, will watch
this potential for the next several forecast runs before introducing
a mention of heavy rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon. Conditions improving to
MVFR later this evening and through the night. Scattering out the
low clouds per time heights in both the GFS and the NAM as well as
HRRR.  At time of issuance, PIA cigs at 500 ft were isolated.
However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and C75 have both
dropped, which is in line with a progression of the IFR line
behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain after
20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and will
likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker will
assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started the
trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue with
some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated, but
will amend accordingly.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 151756
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Minor adjustments to the forecast as showers and thunderstorms
move through Central Illinois ahead of an advancing cold front.
Though severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms this morning.
Temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA will struggle
into the lower 60s, with warmer temps along and south of I-70. No
major updates anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon. Conditions improving to
MVFR later this evening and through the night. Scattering out the
low clouds per time heights in both the GFS and the NAM as well as
HRRR.  At time of issuance, PIA cigs at 500 ft were isolated.
However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and C75 have both
dropped, which is in line with a progression of the IFR line
behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain after
20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and will
likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker will
assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started the
trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue with
some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated, but
will amend accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 151756
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Minor adjustments to the forecast as showers and thunderstorms
move through Central Illinois ahead of an advancing cold front.
Though severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms this morning.
Temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA will struggle
into the lower 60s, with warmer temps along and south of I-70. No
major updates anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Mostly IFR at terminals this afternoon. Conditions improving to
MVFR later this evening and through the night. Scattering out the
low clouds per time heights in both the GFS and the NAM as well as
HRRR.  At time of issuance, PIA cigs at 500 ft were isolated.
However, in the wake of the showers, GBG and C75 have both
dropped, which is in line with a progression of the IFR line
behind the showers. Concern that the IFR cigs will remain after
20z- 22z at the end of the tempos up to potentially 00z and will
likely be amending. Models clearing out the skies quicker will
assist in the potential for fog in the morning hours. Started the
trend, but conservative for now. VWP lighting up a LLWS issue with
some SW winds just off the deck at 35kts. Somewhat isolated, but
will amend accordingly.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 151640
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Minor adjustments to the forecast as showers and thunderstorms
move through Central Illinois ahead of an advancing cold front.
Though severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms this morning.
Temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA will struggle
into the lower 60s, with warmer temps along and south of I-70. No
major updates anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Spotty showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern
Illinois and upstream toward a cold front cutting northeast to
southwest across Iowa. The coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours, with shower/storm chances lingering until the
cold front passes later today. Have included a VCTS at all central
Illinois terminals until FROPA, and have also included a 4 hour
tempo for showers for the four hours preceding FROPA when
rainfall coverage should be greatest. May need to amend to add a
TEMPO for thunder as well, but do not want to overdo the thunder
coverages until its ultimate extent is more clear. Carried VCSH
for a few hours post FROPA due to some guidance suggesting showers
may linger for a time.

VFR conditions to start the period may degrade to MVFR with the
steadier showers/storms. Then, expect MVFR conditions to develop
due to moisture/clouds trapped beneath the post frontal subsidence
inversion. Current thinking is that skies should clear before the
end of the period, but confidence it the timing of the clearing is
not high.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 151640
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Minor adjustments to the forecast as showers and thunderstorms
move through Central Illinois ahead of an advancing cold front.
Though severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms this morning.
Temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA will struggle
into the lower 60s, with warmer temps along and south of I-70. No
major updates anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Spotty showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern
Illinois and upstream toward a cold front cutting northeast to
southwest across Iowa. The coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours, with shower/storm chances lingering until the
cold front passes later today. Have included a VCTS at all central
Illinois terminals until FROPA, and have also included a 4 hour
tempo for showers for the four hours preceding FROPA when
rainfall coverage should be greatest. May need to amend to add a
TEMPO for thunder as well, but do not want to overdo the thunder
coverages until its ultimate extent is more clear. Carried VCSH
for a few hours post FROPA due to some guidance suggesting showers
may linger for a time.

VFR conditions to start the period may degrade to MVFR with the
steadier showers/storms. Then, expect MVFR conditions to develop
due to moisture/clouds trapped beneath the post frontal subsidence
inversion. Current thinking is that skies should clear before the
end of the period, but confidence it the timing of the clearing is
not high.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 151149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Spotty showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern
Illinois and upstream toward a cold front cutting northeast to
southwest across Iowa. The coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours, with shower/storm chances lingering until the
cold front passes later today. Have included a VCTS at all central
Illinois terminals until FROPA, and have also included a 4 hour
tempo for showers for the four hours preceding FROPA when
rainfall coverage should be greatest. May need to amend to add a
TEMPO for thunder as well, but do not want to overdo the thunder
coverages until its ultimate extent is more clear. Carried VCSH
for a few hours post FROPA due to some guidance suggesting showers
may linger for a time.

VFR conditions to start the period may degrade to MVFR with the
steadier showers/storms. Then, expect MVFR conditions to develop
due to moisture/clouds trapped beneath the post frontal subsidence
inversion. Current thinking is that skies should clear before the
end of the period, but confidence it the timing of the clearing is
not high.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 151149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Spotty showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern
Illinois and upstream toward a cold front cutting northeast to
southwest across Iowa. The coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours, with shower/storm chances lingering until the
cold front passes later today. Have included a VCTS at all central
Illinois terminals until FROPA, and have also included a 4 hour
tempo for showers for the four hours preceding FROPA when
rainfall coverage should be greatest. May need to amend to add a
TEMPO for thunder as well, but do not want to overdo the thunder
coverages until its ultimate extent is more clear. Carried VCSH
for a few hours post FROPA due to some guidance suggesting showers
may linger for a time.

VFR conditions to start the period may degrade to MVFR with the
steadier showers/storms. Then, expect MVFR conditions to develop
due to moisture/clouds trapped beneath the post frontal subsidence
inversion. Current thinking is that skies should clear before the
end of the period, but confidence it the timing of the clearing is
not high.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 150802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Southerly winds have developed across the central Illinois
terminals this evening. Lift ahead of fast moving short-wave over
the plains is producing some virga echoes to the northwest of the
TAF sites late this evening. Moisture will continue to develop
ahead of the wave through the remainder of the night with the
column gradually becoming saturated. there will be an increasing
chance of precip reaching the surface at KPIA and possibly KBMI
and KSPI by 12z. 15/00z NAM has slowed the progress of the system
and latest HRRR also shows a delay in the system suggesting that
the passage of the cold front associated with the wave will be a
bit slower than the previous TAF package.

Elevated instability may be sufficient for some thunder during the
day ahead of the front. Will keep current mention of VCTS in KSPI
and KDEC but push timing back into the afternoon just ahead of
frontal passage.

Winds should shift to the North during the late afternoon and
early evening behind the front. Although the boundary layer
remains saturated through the night, winds appear to be significant
enough to keep vsbys at least MVFR. Will keep MVFR CIGS in place as
well as stratus appears to be more likely.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER/BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 150802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Main concern for today is shower/storm timing/chances associated
with the passage of a weak cold front and driving upper level
energy. The upper level forcing is somewhat complicated as it will
be provided by two separate disturbances. The first/weaker wave is
tracking east across the central Plains, while the second/stronger
wave is diving across the northern Plains. The second wave should
end up being the dominant feature for us, although both waves should
tend to shear out to some degree as they push into the confluent
flow across the Midwest.

The best forcing/frontal arrival have slowed some from previous
forecast, with the front not expected to clear the entire forecast
area until this evening. This slower arrival will also delay the
better chances for precipitation until the midday/afternoon hours.
Have expanded thunder mention to the entire forecast area today
given the steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
area wide. This north/east shift of thunder chances is also supported
by storms currently tracking east across southern Iowa. These storms
were located on the nose of a 25kt low-level jet in advance of the
central Plains wave. The forcing of the LLJ and central Plains wave
should weaken before reaching the local area, however it is expected
to be replaced by upper-level divergence/mid-level frontogenesis as
a jet streak ahead of the northern Plains wave arrives. A fairly
wide N-S temperature range is likely across the forecast area today
considering the fairly early arrival of the front/precipitation in
our northwest counties, compared to the evening frontal arrival
across southeast Illinois.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Cold front should reach the I-70 corridor by sunset and be out of
the forecast area shortly afterward, taking the rain with it. Fairly
sharp clearing expected behind the front as high pressure builds in,
but clouds will linger much of the night in southeast Illinois.

Quiet midweek period expected as the high drifts across the Midwest.
Evening models have various interpretations of some convective
activity to our southwest on Wednesday, along the periphery of some
upper ridging across the Rockies. but all models keep it in Missouri
and will thus keep our forecast dry. Slow moderating trend in
temperatures with lower 70s widespread by Thursday.

Upper ridge breaks down late in the week before rebuilding along the
West Coast late in the weekend. Longer range models dig a sharpening
upper wave across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday
night, with rain chances mainly focused in the Saturday afternoon
and evening time frame. Beyond that, the models show quite a bit of
divergence in the evolution of this wave. The latest ECMWF model
forms a closed low over Lake Superior Saturday night and drives a
large slug of cooler air across the Midwest later in the weekend,
while the steadier GFS is much more progressive and shows much less
of a temperature change. That sharper scenario is more of a recent
development and thus for now have only shown some small decrease in
temperatures for Sunday and Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Southerly winds have developed across the central Illinois
terminals this evening. Lift ahead of fast moving short-wave over
the plains is producing some virga echoes to the northwest of the
TAF sites late this evening. Moisture will continue to develop
ahead of the wave through the remainder of the night with the
column gradually becoming saturated. there will be an increasing
chance of precip reaching the surface at KPIA and possibly KBMI
and KSPI by 12z. 15/00z NAM has slowed the progress of the system
and latest HRRR also shows a delay in the system suggesting that
the passage of the cold front associated with the wave will be a
bit slower than the previous TAF package.

Elevated instability may be sufficient for some thunder during the
day ahead of the front. Will keep current mention of VCTS in KSPI
and KDEC but push timing back into the afternoon just ahead of
frontal passage.

Winds should shift to the North during the late afternoon and
early evening behind the front. Although the boundary layer
remains saturated through the night, winds appear to be significant
enough to keep vsbys at least MVFR. Will keep MVFR CIGS in place as
well as stratus appears to be more likely.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER/BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 150452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Cyclogenesis occurring over central High Plains this evening in
response to a fast moving short wave moving out of the northern
Rockies. Warm advection precip is developing ahead of the wave and
should move quickly east into the Midwest late tonight. Some minor
differences between model timing of onset. Still fair amount of
dry air evident in 00z KILX sounding, but dew points are climbing
as southerly wind component develops in the boundary layer. Have
made some minor adjustment to wx/pop grids late tonight and
tomorrow to reflect a compromise between HRRR and NAM precip fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Southerly winds have developed across the central Illinois
terminals this evening. Lift ahead of fast moving short-wave over
the plains is producing some virga echoes to the northwest of the
TAF sites late this evening. Moisture will continue to develop
ahead of the wave through the remainder of the night with the
column gradually becoming saturated. there will be an increasing
chance of precip reaching the surface at KPIA and possibly KBMI
and KSPI by 12z. 15/00z NAM has slowed the progress of the system
and latest HRRR also shows a delay in the system suggesting that
the passage of the cold front associated with the wave will be a
bit slower than the previous TAF package.

Elevated instability may be sufficient for some thunder during the
day ahead of the front. Will keep current metion of VCTS in KSPI
and KDEC but push timing back into the afternoon just ahead of
frontal passage.

Winds should shift to the North during the late afternoon and
early evening behind the front. Although the boundary layer
remains saturated through the night, winds appear to be significant
enough to keep vsbys at least MVFR. Will keep MVFR CIGS in place as
well as stratus appears to be more likely.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARKER
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER/BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 150452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Cyclogenesis occurring over central High Plains this evening in
response to a fast moving short wave moving out of the northern
Rockies. Warm advection precip is developing ahead of the wave and
should move quickly east into the Midwest late tonight. Some minor
differences between model timing of onset. Still fair amount of
dry air evident in 00z KILX sounding, but dew points are climbing
as southerly wind component develops in the boundary layer. Have
made some minor adjustment to wx/pop grids late tonight and
tomorrow to reflect a compromise between HRRR and NAM precip fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Southerly winds have developed across the central Illinois
terminals this evening. Lift ahead of fast moving short-wave over
the plains is producing some virga echoes to the northwest of the
TAF sites late this evening. Moisture will continue to develop
ahead of the wave through the remainder of the night with the
column gradually becoming saturated. there will be an increasing
chance of precip reaching the surface at KPIA and possibly KBMI
and KSPI by 12z. 15/00z NAM has slowed the progress of the system
and latest HRRR also shows a delay in the system suggesting that
the passage of the cold front associated with the wave will be a
bit slower than the previous TAF package.

Elevated instability may be sufficient for some thunder during the
day ahead of the front. Will keep current metion of VCTS in KSPI
and KDEC but push timing back into the afternoon just ahead of
frontal passage.

Winds should shift to the North during the late afternoon and
early evening behind the front. Although the boundary layer
remains saturated through the night, winds appear to be significant
enough to keep vsbys at least MVFR. Will keep MVFR CIGS in place as
well as stratus appears to be more likely.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARKER
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER/BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 150124
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
824 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Cyclogenesis occurring over central High Plains this evening in
response to a fast moving short wave moving out of the northern
Rockies. Warm advection precip is developing ahead of the wave and
should move quickly east into the Midwest late tonight. Some minor
differences between model timing of onset. Still fair amount of
dry air evident in 00z KILX sounding, but dew points are climbing
as southerly wind component develops in the boundary layer. Have
made some minor adjustment to wx/pop grids late tonight and
tomorrow to reflect a compromise between HRRR and NAM precip fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Water Vapor Imagery showing short wave now moving into high plains
rotating through broad long-wave trough over much of the nothern
U.S. Surface reflection begining to develop over northeast
Colorado is expected to push east quickly with the wave.

Gradual increase in VFR clouds overnight will eventually give way
to lower cigs around 12z in western terminals. Still some question
of how low bases will become as it should take some time to
saturate low levels. For now will keep vfr through 17z until have a
better handle on evolution. Showers should overspread all central
Illinois terminals during the morning. Will mention VCTS at KSPI
and KDEC as NAM indicates elevated instability during the morning.
Cold front will push quickly southeast with the best chance of
precip and mvfr conds after 18z once the wave moves by and should
end precip chances by 00z.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARKER
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER








000
FXUS63 KILX 150124
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
824 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Cyclogenesis occurring over central High Plains this evening in
response to a fast moving short wave moving out of the northern
Rockies. Warm advection precip is developing ahead of the wave and
should move quickly east into the Midwest late tonight. Some minor
differences between model timing of onset. Still fair amount of
dry air evident in 00z KILX sounding, but dew points are climbing
as southerly wind component develops in the boundary layer. Have
made some minor adjustment to wx/pop grids late tonight and
tomorrow to reflect a compromise between HRRR and NAM precip fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Water Vapor Imagery showing short wave now moving into high plains
rotating through broad long-wave trough over much of the nothern
U.S. Surface reflection begining to develop over northeast
Colorado is expected to push east quickly with the wave.

Gradual increase in VFR clouds overnight will eventually give way
to lower cigs around 12z in western terminals. Still some question
of how low bases will become as it should take some time to
saturate low levels. For now will keep vfr through 17z until have a
better handle on evolution. Showers should overspread all central
Illinois terminals during the morning. Will mention VCTS at KSPI
and KDEC as NAM indicates elevated instability during the morning.
Cold front will push quickly southeast with the best chance of
precip and mvfr conds after 18z once the wave moves by and should
end precip chances by 00z.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARKER
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER







000
FXUS63 KILX 142301
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

HJS
&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

25
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Water Vapor Imagery showing short wave now moving into high plains
rotating through broad long-wave trough over much of the nothern
U.S. Surface reflection begining to develop over northeast
Colorado is expected to push east quickly with the wave.

Gradual increase in VFR clouds overnight will eventually give way
to lower cigs around 12z in western terminals. Still some question
of how low bases will become as it should take some time to
saturate low levels. For now will keep vfr through 17z until have a
better handle on evolution. Showers should overspread all central
Illinois terminals during the morning. Will mention VCTS at KSPI
and KDEC as NAM indicates elevated instability during the morning.
Cold front will push quickly southeast with the best chance of
precip and mvfr conds after 18z once the wave moves by and should
end precip chances by 00z.

Barker
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER







000
FXUS63 KILX 142301
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

High pressure across the Midwest and into the Atlantic northeast
will keep the weather quiet in the early evening hours, but give way
to another quick disturbance moving into the region tonight. A front
moving across the area tonight associated with the disturbance will
bring the chance for showers and isolated thunder into tomorrow
morning. Models have been delaying the precip until after midnight
and have maintained that trend, with pops starting to move in NW of
the Illinois River Valley before 12z. Some of the cloud cover moving
into the region should keep the temps from bottoming out, but still
unseasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s and near 50.

HJS
&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

There is decent agreement in the models that the track of the best
forcing for precip on Monday looks to remain across northern
Illinois. Therefore we continued to limit the likely PoPs to areas N
of I-72, with chance PoPs south of there. Instability will be weak
at best, but a rumble of thunder could develop for SW areas from
Rushville to Jacksonville.

By Monday evening, any residual lift along a trailing trough will
diminish quickly. It`s entirely possible that all rain may come to
an end by sunset. However, with the forward progress of that trough
slowing, shower chances could linger for at least a few hours into
Monday evening, so we left chance PoPs in place toward I-70.

The widespread clouds and rain across northern areas will keep high
temps on Monday near 60, and we continued to trim numbers a few
degrees below guidance values. With rain holding off until afternoon
and some filtered sun expected south of I-70, highs should get into
the lower 70s.

The colder than normal conditions will last through at least
mid-week as high pressure extends from the Great Lakes and back into
Illinois. Dry conditions are expected, due to the deep layer of dry
air. A weather system approaches western IL on Wed, but all models
curl it to the southeast of IL as high pressure remains in control
of our region.

A stronger system moving across the northern states on Saturday will
drag a cold front across IL Sat night and Sunday. There appears to
be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as mid-level lapse
rates increase and deeper moisture arrives. Chance PoPs were
included Saturday west of I-55, and area-wide for Sat night and
Sunday associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s/near 80 by Saturday, with Sunday a few degrees cooler
under clouds and showers.

25
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Water Vapor Imagery showing short wave now moving into high plains
rotating through broad long-wave trough over much of the nothern
U.S. Surface reflection begining to develop over northeast
Colorado is expected to push east quickly with the wave.

Gradual increase in VFR clouds overnight will eventually give way
to lower cigs around 12z in western terminals. Still some question
of how low bases will become as it should take some time to
saturate low levels. For now will keep vfr through 17z until have a
better handle on evolution. Showers should overspread all central
Illinois terminals during the morning. Will mention VCTS at KSPI
and KDEC as NAM indicates elevated instability during the morning.
Cold front will push quickly southeast with the best chance of
precip and mvfr conds after 18z once the wave moves by and should
end precip chances by 00z.

Barker
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON/25
AVIATION...BARKER








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