Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KILX 250159
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD NW IL OVERNIGHT PROMOTING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ASSOCIATED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 1
A.M. INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING
DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY...LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED...AND BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
CONTINUING. NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 250159
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD NW IL OVERNIGHT PROMOTING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ASSOCIATED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 1
A.M. INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING
DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY...LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED...AND BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
CONTINUING. NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 250001
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 250001
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 241930
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 241930
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY.  ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE.  WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY.  LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.  LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT.  WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME.  THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS.  STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 241738
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 241738
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 241525
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 241525
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 241142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 241142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 241142
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 240830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY.
INITIALLY...LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD INTO AREAS
FROM KPIA-KSPI WESTWARD PRIOR TO 18Z WITH VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-
PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT
2.5-3 KFT AGL IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS
SE 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING SUNDAY. SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 240830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY.
INITIALLY...LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD INTO AREAS
FROM KPIA-KSPI WESTWARD PRIOR TO 18Z WITH VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-
PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT
2.5-3 KFT AGL IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS
SE 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING SUNDAY. SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 240450
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND REMNANT DISTURBANCES FROM
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOWS WILL BE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
60S. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY.
INITIALLY...LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD INTO AREAS
FROM KPIA-KSPI WESTWARD PRIOR TO 18Z WITH VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-
PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT
2.5-3 KFT AGL IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS
SE 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING SUNDAY. SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 240149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND REMNANT DISTURBANCES FROM
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOWS WILL BE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
60S. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY. SPATIO-
TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED
VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AGL IN LATER TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS SE 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 240149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND REMNANT DISTURBANCES FROM
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOWS WILL BE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
60S. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY. SPATIO-
TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED
VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AGL IN LATER TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS SE 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 240149
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND REMNANT DISTURBANCES FROM
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOWS WILL BE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
60S. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY. SPATIO-
TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED
VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AGL IN LATER TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS SE 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 232339
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY. SPATIO-
TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED
VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AGL IN LATER TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS SE 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 232339
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY. SPATIO-
TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED
VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AGL IN LATER TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS SE 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 231955
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME
RECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6500 FEET...BUT GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS NEAR 10K TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME
VCSH TO KPIA/KSPI LATE MORNING...BUT THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 231955
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME
RECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6500 FEET...BUT GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS NEAR 10K TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME
VCSH TO KPIA/KSPI LATE MORNING...BUT THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 231955
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LARGELY AT
BAY UNTIL SUNDAY.  19Z/2PM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WHICH IS KEEPING A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW A MORE HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY POISED
UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  UNTIL THAT
TIME...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST BELOW 850MB.  AS A
RESULT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TRY
TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE.  HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES
SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.  DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE MIDWEST.  AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

BEST BET AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT
MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS PER 12Z MAY 23
MODELS.  NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY PUSH IT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NAM SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2000J/KG: HOWEVER,
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KT AND A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL IS SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN CASE A SUBTLE WAVE NOT
CURRENTLY PICKED UP BY SYNOPTIC MODELS RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME
RECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6500 FEET...BUT GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS NEAR 10K TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME
VCSH TO KPIA/KSPI LATE MORNING...BUT THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 231729
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF I-72...BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE SHOULD MAKE SOME INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THE REST OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR EDITS AND SHOULD STILL
TOP OUT IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME
RECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6500 FEET...BUT GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS NEAR 10K TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME
VCSH TO KPIA/KSPI LATE MORNING...BUT THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 231455
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF I-72...BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE SHOULD MAKE SOME INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THE REST OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR EDITS AND SHOULD STILL
TOP OUT IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 231455
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF I-72...BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE SHOULD MAKE SOME INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THE REST OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR EDITS AND SHOULD STILL
TOP OUT IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 231117
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 231117
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 231117
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 231117
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. BROKEN
MID CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AROUND
00Z AND THEN LAST TIL 12Z TOMORROW. COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT BUT 06Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN AT WESTERN
TAF SITES TIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 230842
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
LITTLE WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDS USUALLY KEEP TEMPS
ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
CLOUDS...AND 850MB TEMPS SAME AS YESTERDAY...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.  TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS CLOUD COVER AND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING.  PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING STORM HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH
ITS ARRIVAL TIME GOING SLOWER ON 00Z RUNS AND FASTER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS.  TONIGHT WAS NO DIFFERENT SLOWING THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND THE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP IN
FOR A WHILE WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACCOMPANY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND HAVE PULLED BACK THE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME ACCORDINGLY,
THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY READY TO PULL THEM OUT COMPLETELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING REENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.

IN THE LONGER TERM, FORECAST CONTINUES WARM AND RAINY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON THE EDGE OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MIDWEST REMAINS IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL VORTS MOVING OUT OF THE
DEEPER LOW/TROF SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STILL LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, BUT HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND MODELS ARE MORE THAN
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THAT
BEING SAID, WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT REMAIN THE LOWEST POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8-10 KTS BY 17Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 230448
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT ECHOES OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
AS LOWER AND MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING
ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8-10 KTS BY 17Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 230448
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT ECHOES OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
AS LOWER AND MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING
ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8-10 KTS BY 17Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 230159
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT ECHOES OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
AS LOWER AND MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING
ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY BY 17Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 222317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY BY 17Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 222317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY BY 17Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 222317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT DAY...WITH CLOUD BASES
REACHING AROUND 5 KFT MSL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY BY 17Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 221933
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 221933
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE NOTED ON 19Z/2PM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.  MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.  A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR LONGER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL PLACE
THE MIDWEST IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN CHANGES...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  12Z MAY 22 MODELS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SLOWING TREND WITH THIS PROCESS...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.  WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL TRY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LATEST GFS AND GEM ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY.  HAVE ONCE
AGAIN SCALED BACK POPS...AND NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALSO SLOWED THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...SINCE
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.  WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTS ALONG/EAST OF I-57.

MAIN PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS.  CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY.  WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING DUE TO THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER
SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THINK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.  MUCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1000J/KG...BUT WILL REACH 1500 TO 2000J/KG IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL AT 30-35KT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE IN THE DAY.  NO MODEL IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS OCCURRING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY.  AFTER THAT...FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WANES AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.  HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WARM/DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 221705
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 221705
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 221705
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART





000
FXUS63 KILX 221705
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART




000
FXUS63 KILX 221444
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 221444
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 221152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 221152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 221152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN




000
FXUS63 KILX 221152
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN





000
FXUS63 KILX 220831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTIUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A WARM
AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PREDOMINANT
SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. WINDS SW 4-8 KTS THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z...THEN BECOMING NE 4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON




000
FXUS63 KILX 220831
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTIUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A WARM
AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PREDOMINANT
SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. WINDS SW 4-8 KTS THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z...THEN BECOMING NE 4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 220453
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WHILE
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHERLY. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OTHER THAN MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
TEMPERATURE...HUMIDITY...WIND FOR EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 19Z/2PM SATELLITE IMAGERY
STILL SHOWING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
EFFINGHAM LINE.  CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...HOWEVER DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD AREA MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY SUNSET.  A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.  CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN...BUT LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DROP INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF BEST CLOUD FIELD
AND MODEL CONSENSUS...THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL E/NE OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

12Z NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER LOW FURTHER
WEST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE CALIFORNIA LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE WESTERN
CONUS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD.  LATEST
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SLOWING TREND...WITH MOST SOLUTIONS
NOW KEEPING CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.  NAM REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  GIVEN OVERALL SLOWING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF AN INITIALLY DRY
AIRMASS...HAVE CUT POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE A FEELING THESE WILL
BE REMOVED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS WESTERN LOW SLOWS FURTHER.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY.  AS PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SUNDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  HAVE CUT BACK
POPS ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INTRODUCING LIKELY EVERYWHERE
ON MONDAY. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000J/KG
RANGE BY MONDAY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS RATHER MODEST AT
25-30KT. AS A RESULT...THINK OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL BE LOW.
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS A
WARM/SUMMERLIKE REGIME WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TAKES HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PREDOMINANT
SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. WINDS SW 4-8 KTS THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z...THEN BECOMING NE 4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON





000
FXUS63 KILX 220453
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WHILE
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM FROM DROPPING FURTHER.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHERLY. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OTHER THAN MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
TEMPERATURE...HUMIDITY...WIND FOR EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 19Z/2PM SATELLITE IMAGERY
STILL SHOWING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
EFFINGHAM LINE.  CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...HOWEVER DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD AREA MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY SUNSET.  A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.  CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN...BUT LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DROP INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF BEST CLOUD FIELD
AND MODEL CONSENSUS...THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL E/NE OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

12Z NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER LOW FURTHER
WEST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE CALIFORNIA LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARM/UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.  AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE WESTERN
CONUS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD.  LATEST
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SLOWING TREND...WITH MOST SOLUTIONS
NOW KEEPING CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.  NAM REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  GIVEN OVERALL SLOWING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF AN INITIALLY DRY
AIRMASS...HAVE CUT POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE JUST LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE A FEELING THESE WILL
BE REMOVED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS WESTERN LOW SLOWS FURTHER.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY.  AS PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
SUNDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.  HAVE CUT BACK
POPS ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INTRODUCING LIKELY EVERYWHERE
ON MONDAY. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000J/KG
RANGE BY MONDAY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS RATHER MODEST AT
25-30KT. AS A RESULT...THINK OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL BE LOW.
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS A
WARM/SUMMERLIKE REGIME WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TAKES HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PREDOMINANT
SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. WINDS SW 4-8 KTS THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z...THEN BECOMING NE 4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities