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000
FXUS63 KILX 251616
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1016 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low located just northwest of St. Louis late this morning.
Widespread precipitation continues over our northern CWA in the
deformation zone, with dual-pol radar data from showing the
rain/snow line roughly along a Canton to Lexington line, although
some mixed precipitation is showing up in the latest observation
from Champaign. Freezing level will continue to lower as the low
tracks toward Carbondale by midday, bringing the rain/snow line
closer to Springfield by early afternoon, where temperatures are
still currently in the lower 40s.

Will need to watch snow rates across the north closely. Already
have had 1 inch reported just northeast of Galesburg where light
to moderate snow continues. NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch shows
this area on the periphery of an area of enhanced snow production
over the next few hours, although drier air is being advected in
from the northeast where dew points in north central Illinois are
down to the low-mid 20s.

Have sent some updated zones/grids to update the precipitation and
transition trends, and to tweak the hourly temperatures especially
across the northern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty NNE winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be NE of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and NE counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign NE to
near 40F from Jacksonville SW.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville SW.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially NE areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Storm system passing to our south today will bring deteriorating
cigs and vsbys to the forecast area. Rain continues to push east
and should overspread our area by 14z with surface temperatures
expected to remain above freezing into early this afternoon. By
then, the storm will be far enough from our area to allow enough
cold air to filter south into the central Illinois to change the
rain over to snow from north to south. It appears that PIA and BMI
will be first to change over to snow between 16z-19z with CMI
seeing the transition take place between 19z-21z. Latest forecast
soundings suggest temps may be too warm to support much more than
a mix at SPI and DEC until 21z and then a brief change to snow is
expected before the precip begins to taper off. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR and then IFR to occasional LIFR after 15z and
continue thru the afternoon hours. VSBYs may lower to less than
one mile with the changeover to snow in PIA...BMI and CMI. Cigs
will improve a bit to MVFR after 00z but continue thru at least
06z.

Another concern will be with increasing northeast winds this
afternoon as the storm center shifts to our south. Look for winds
to back into the east and then northeast later this morning and
increase to 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts possible this
afternoon. The winds will turn more into a northerly direction by
this evening at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts early
this evening before we see a diminishing trend towards midnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 251616
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1016 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low located just northwest of St. Louis late this morning.
Widespread precipitation continues over our northern CWA in the
deformation zone, with dual-pol radar data from showing the
rain/snow line roughly along a Canton to Lexington line, although
some mixed precipitation is showing up in the latest observation
from Champaign. Freezing level will continue to lower as the low
tracks toward Carbondale by midday, bringing the rain/snow line
closer to Springfield by early afternoon, where temperatures are
still currently in the lower 40s.

Will need to watch snow rates across the north closely. Already
have had 1 inch reported just northeast of Galesburg where light
to moderate snow continues. NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch shows
this area on the periphery of an area of enhanced snow production
over the next few hours, although drier air is being advected in
from the northeast where dew points in north central Illinois are
down to the low-mid 20s.

Have sent some updated zones/grids to update the precipitation and
transition trends, and to tweak the hourly temperatures especially
across the northern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty NNE winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be NE of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and NE counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign NE to
near 40F from Jacksonville SW.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville SW.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially NE areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Storm system passing to our south today will bring deteriorating
cigs and vsbys to the forecast area. Rain continues to push east
and should overspread our area by 14z with surface temperatures
expected to remain above freezing into early this afternoon. By
then, the storm will be far enough from our area to allow enough
cold air to filter south into the central Illinois to change the
rain over to snow from north to south. It appears that PIA and BMI
will be first to change over to snow between 16z-19z with CMI
seeing the transition take place between 19z-21z. Latest forecast
soundings suggest temps may be too warm to support much more than
a mix at SPI and DEC until 21z and then a brief change to snow is
expected before the precip begins to taper off. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR and then IFR to occasional LIFR after 15z and
continue thru the afternoon hours. VSBYs may lower to less than
one mile with the changeover to snow in PIA...BMI and CMI. Cigs
will improve a bit to MVFR after 00z but continue thru at least
06z.

Another concern will be with increasing northeast winds this
afternoon as the storm center shifts to our south. Look for winds
to back into the east and then northeast later this morning and
increase to 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts possible this
afternoon. The winds will turn more into a northerly direction by
this evening at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts early
this evening before we see a diminishing trend towards midnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 251109
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty nne winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be ne of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and ne counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign ne to
near 40F from Jacksonville sw.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville sw.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially ne areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Storm system passing to our south today will bring deteriorating
cigs and vsbys to the forecast area. Rain continues to push east
and should overspread our area by 14z with surface temperatures
expected to remain above freezing into early this afternoon. By
then, the storm will be far enough from our area to allow enough
cold air to filter south into the central Illinois to change the
rain over to snow from north to south. It appears that PIA and BMI
will be first to change over to snow between 16z-19z with CMI
seeing the transition take place between 19z-21z. Latest forecast
soundings suggest temps may be too warm to support much more than
a mix at SPI and DEC until 21z and then a brief change to snow is
expected before the precip begins to taper off. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR and then IFR to occasional LIFR after 15z and
continue thru the afternoon hours. VSBYs may lower to less than
one mile with the changeover to snow in PIA...BMI and CMI. Cigs
will improve a bit to MVFR after 00z but continue thru at least
06z.

Another concern will be with increasing northeast winds this
afternoon as the storm center shifts to our south. Look for winds
to back into the east and then northeast later this morning and
increase to 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts possible this
afternoon. The winds will turn more into a northerly direction by
this evening at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts early
this evening before we see a diminishing trend towards midnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 251109
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty nne winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be ne of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and ne counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign ne to
near 40F from Jacksonville sw.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville sw.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially ne areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Storm system passing to our south today will bring deteriorating
cigs and vsbys to the forecast area. Rain continues to push east
and should overspread our area by 14z with surface temperatures
expected to remain above freezing into early this afternoon. By
then, the storm will be far enough from our area to allow enough
cold air to filter south into the central Illinois to change the
rain over to snow from north to south. It appears that PIA and BMI
will be first to change over to snow between 16z-19z with CMI
seeing the transition take place between 19z-21z. Latest forecast
soundings suggest temps may be too warm to support much more than
a mix at SPI and DEC until 21z and then a brief change to snow is
expected before the precip begins to taper off. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR and then IFR to occasional LIFR after 15z and
continue thru the afternoon hours. VSBYs may lower to less than
one mile with the changeover to snow in PIA...BMI and CMI. Cigs
will improve a bit to MVFR after 00z but continue thru at least
06z.

Another concern will be with increasing northeast winds this
afternoon as the storm center shifts to our south. Look for winds
to back into the east and then northeast later this morning and
increase to 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts possible this
afternoon. The winds will turn more into a northerly direction by
this evening at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts early
this evening before we see a diminishing trend towards midnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 250929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty nne winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be ne of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and ne counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign ne to
near 40F from Jacksonville sw.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville sw.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially ne areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Low-level thermal profiles still a challenge as the 00z models
continue to be on the warm side of the current forecast despite
the low tracking a bit further south. Latest water vapor imagery
and upstream observations suggest that the southward trend in the
forecast envelope may continue. However one impact of the further
south trajectory may be to delay post-system low-level CAA. Cold
air remains bottled up over eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and
northern Wisconsin and is not yet being funneled into the storm.

Will delay switchover of precip from liquid to frozen and confine
a period of possible sleet to KPIA and KBMI.

Gusty north winds still look likely after storm passage Sunday
afternoon as forecasted gradient tightens.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker







000
FXUS63 KILX 250929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

3am surface analysis has low pressure centered over southern Iowa
with the latest 3 hourly surface pressure falls suggesting a
continued southeast movement to the low this morning. Not a lot
of cold air associated with this particular storm system as surface
temperatures across Iowa, southern Minnesota and southeast South
Dakota were still above freezing after the low shifted away from
there area.

By 12z, the low is forecast by most models to be just west-southwest
of Quincy. Temperatures ahead of the low continue to slowly rise
early this morning with readings ranging from the mid 30s over far
eastern Illinois to the middle 40s over southwest Illinois. With the
low expected to push to near Lawrenceville by late this afternoon,
we expect the warmest temperatures across the north this morning
with steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as winds
turn into the northeast and increase to between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph at times.

The high resolution short term forecast soundings continue to show
temperatures at the surface too warm to support much in the way of
snow until later this morning across the north, and not until later
this afternoon over central through east central Illinois. Further
south, any changeover looks to hold off until the low shifts to
the south of the area this evening. Am a bit concerned with our
northern counties...roughly along and north of I-74...later this
morning and especially this afternoon when the low shifts further
to our southwest, surface winds up to 900 mb switch into the northeast
with soundings showing 30-40 kts around 900 mb. That may be enough
to bring surface temps down sufficiently for a brief period of time
for a period of moderate snowfall before soundings indicate we lose
the ice crystals in the upper layers of the clouds. However, except
for the NAM, which once again appears to have initialized too cold
in the lower levels of the atmosphere, all other forecast soundings
indicate surface temperatures should stay above freezing during the
daylight hours. Highest totals, in the 1 to 2 inch range will be
along and north of the I-74 corridor with lighter accumulations
to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Surface low pressure between Evansville and Louisville KY at sunset
and then into eastern KY by midnight tonight. Have increase chances
of mixed precipitation to likely over southeast IL during first half
of evening, as light rain changes to light snow before diminishing
during late evening. Snowfall amounts in southeast IL should be less
than a half inch. Gusty nne winds linger during the evening before
diminishing overnight as low pressure pulls away from IL with weak
ridging into IL by dawn Monday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to
near 20F north and mid 20s south of I-70 in southeast IL.

Another clipper low pressure system will dive quickly southeast into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Monday, though this time best
chances of light snow to be ne of central IL Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Carried slight chances of light snow and flurries over
northern and ne counties Monday afternoon into Monday night. Highs
Monday range from lower 30s from Bloomington and Champaign ne to
near 40F from Jacksonville sw.

1025 mb surface high pressure drifts over IL Tue night and into the
eastern Ohio river valley Wed while upper level ridge noses into IL.
This to bring quiet weather with temps moderating again with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue and 40s Wed and near 50F from
Jacksonville sw.

Low pressure off the Pacific northwest moves east into IL and Ohio
river valley Wed night and Thu returning a chance of mainly light
rain, though could be a mix of light snow northern counties before
ending. Highs Thu around 40F northern areas and mid 40s in southeast
IL. Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday which is close to
normal for late January. Extended models dig an upper level trof
over the Great Lakes and eastern states next weekend bringing
chances of light snow showers especially ne areas. Temps also cool
some more Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Low-level thermal profiles still a challenge as the 00z models
continue to be on the warm side of the current forecast despite
the low tracking a bit further south. Latest water vapor imagery
and upstream observations suggest that the southward trend in the
forecast envelope may continue. However one impact of the further
south trajectory may be to delay post-system low-level CAA. Cold
air remains bottled up over eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and
northern Wisconsin and is not yet being funneled into the storm.

Will delay switchover of precip from liquid to frozen and confine
a period of possible sleet to KPIA and KBMI.

Gusty north winds still look likely after storm passage Sunday
afternoon as forecasted gradient tightens.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker








000
FXUS63 KILX 250505
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Overnite forecast generally on track. 18z models and HRRR indicate
that low-level thermal profile may be conducive for some sleet to
mix with rain prior to 12z in the far NW. Will add wording for
that potential as far east as Peoria.

Still plenty of uncertainty in low-level temperature forecast for
late tonight and Sunday with most models indicate temperatures
near or possibly just above freezing at the surface and warmer
temps around 925 mb through the morning then rapid cooling behind
the expected cliper system during the afternoon and a changeover.
The trend of the solution envelope has also shifted south over the
past few days which if it continues will bring CAA into the
northern counties faster. Still appears that accumulations of an
1"-3" still possible mainly northeast of I-74 with the best
chances of accumulation occurring on elevated and grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Low-level thermal profiles still a challenge as the 00z models
continue to be on the warm side of the current forecast despite
the low tracking a bit further south. Latest water vapor imagery
and upstream observations suggest that the southward trend in the
forecast envelope may continue. However one impact of the further
south trajectory may be to delay post-system low-level CAA. Cold
air remains bottled up over eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and
northern Wisconsin and is not yet being funneled into the storm.

Will delay switchover of precip from liquid to frozen and confine
a period of possible sleet to KPIA and KBMI.

Gusty north winds still look likely after storm passage Sunday
afternoon as forecasted gradient tightens.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker







000
FXUS63 KILX 250505
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Overnite forecast generally on track. 18z models and HRRR indicate
that low-level thermal profile may be conducive for some sleet to
mix with rain prior to 12z in the far NW. Will add wording for
that potential as far east as Peoria.

Still plenty of uncertainty in low-level temperature forecast for
late tonight and Sunday with most models indicate temperatures
near or possibly just above freezing at the surface and warmer
temps around 925 mb through the morning then rapid cooling behind
the expected cliper system during the afternoon and a changeover.
The trend of the solution envelope has also shifted south over the
past few days which if it continues will bring CAA into the
northern counties faster. Still appears that accumulations of an
1"-3" still possible mainly northeast of I-74 with the best
chances of accumulation occurring on elevated and grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Low-level thermal profiles still a challenge as the 00z models
continue to be on the warm side of the current forecast despite
the low tracking a bit further south. Latest water vapor imagery
and upstream observations suggest that the southward trend in the
forecast envelope may continue. However one impact of the further
south trajectory may be to delay post-system low-level CAA. Cold
air remains bottled up over eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and
northern Wisconsin and is not yet being funneled into the storm.

Will delay switchover of precip from liquid to frozen and confine
a period of possible sleet to KPIA and KBMI.

Gusty north winds still look likely after storm passage Sunday
afternoon as forecasted gradient tightens.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker








000
FXUS63 KILX 250246
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
846 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Overnite forecast generally on track. 18z models and HRRR indicate
that low-level thermal profile may be conducive for some sleet to
mix with rain prior to 12z in the far NW. Will add wording for
that potential as far east as Peoria.

Still plenty of uncertainty in low-level temperature forecast for
late tonight and Sunday with most models indicate temperatures
near or possibly just above freezing at the surface and warmer
temps around 925 mb through the morning then rapid cooling behind
the expected cliper system during the afternoon and a changeover.
The trend of the solution envelope has also shifted south over the
past few days which if it continues will bring CAA into the
northern counties faster. Still appears that accumulations of an
1"-3" still possible mainly northeast of I-74 with the best
chances of accumulation occuring on elevated and grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

cliper system continues to dig through the northern plains this
afternoon. Model trends have been to shift the surface track of
the waves surface reflection further south. Current indications
are that a KUIN-KSDF track is setting up for the 12z-00z perios
tomorrow. Given trends of last few runs and the current track of
the wave in water vapor imagery, would not be at all surprised if
track doesn`t end up being even further south.  Realitively warm
conditions ahead of the system will give way to rapid CAA behind
the low indicating a change over from a mix of precip to snow by
late morning for KPIA and KBMI, and Midday at KCMI. Closer to the
low track KSPI and KDEC will likely start with a warmer thermal
profile and a period -RA at the precip onset with a changeover
midday to early afternoon. Forecasted model gradient during the
afternoon suggests winds increasing from northeast to 15-20kt and
higher gusts and will be reflected in I-74 sites. Speeds may be a
bit less closer to the low track.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker







000
FXUS63 KILX 250246
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
846 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Overnite forecast generally on track. 18z models and HRRR indicate
that low-level thermal profile may be conducive for some sleet to
mix with rain prior to 12z in the far NW. Will add wording for
that potential as far east as Peoria.

Still plenty of uncertainty in low-level temperature forecast for
late tonight and Sunday with most models indicate temperatures
near or possibly just above freezing at the surface and warmer
temps around 925 mb through the morning then rapid cooling behind
the expected cliper system during the afternoon and a changeover.
The trend of the solution envelope has also shifted south over the
past few days which if it continues will bring CAA into the
northern counties faster. Still appears that accumulations of an
1"-3" still possible mainly northeast of I-74 with the best
chances of accumulation occuring on elevated and grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

cliper system continues to dig through the northern plains this
afternoon. Model trends have been to shift the surface track of
the waves surface reflection further south. Current indications
are that a KUIN-KSDF track is setting up for the 12z-00z perios
tomorrow. Given trends of last few runs and the current track of
the wave in water vapor imagery, would not be at all surprised if
track doesn`t end up being even further south.  Realitively warm
conditions ahead of the system will give way to rapid CAA behind
the low indicating a change over from a mix of precip to snow by
late morning for KPIA and KBMI, and Midday at KCMI. Closer to the
low track KSPI and KDEC will likely start with a warmer thermal
profile and a period -RA at the precip onset with a changeover
midday to early afternoon. Forecasted model gradient during the
afternoon suggests winds increasing from northeast to 15-20kt and
higher gusts and will be reflected in I-74 sites. Speeds may be a
bit less closer to the low track.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker








000
FXUS63 KILX 242312
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
512 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

cliper system continues to dig through the northern plains this
afternoon. Model trends have been to shift the surface track of
the waves surface reflection further south. Current indications
are that a KUIN-KSDF track is setting up for the 12z-00z perios
tomorrow. Given trends of last few runs and the current track of
the wave in water vapor imagery, would not be at all surprised if
track doesn`t end up being even further south.  Realitively warm
conditions ahead of the system will give way to rapid CAA behind
the low indicating a change over from a mix of precip to snow by
late morning for KPIA and KBMI, and Midday at KCMI. Closer to the
low track KSPI and KDEC will likely start with a warmer thermal
profile and a period -RA at the precip onset with a changeover
midday to early afternoon. Forecasted model gradient during the
afternoon suggests winds increasing from northeast to 15-20kt and
higher gusts and will be reflected in I-74 sites. Speeds may be a
bit less closer to the low track.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barker







000
FXUS63 KILX 242036
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Main forecast issue will be with deteriorating conditions late
tonight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions on tap through about
08Z at all sites, with a lowering ceiling ahead of a storm system
moving in from the northwest. The latest models have trended a bit
southward with the track, with KPIA/KBMI likely seeing IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities develop after 12Z as rain mixes with,
then changes to snow. Forecast soundings off the NAM also indicate
some sleet mixed in for a couple hours before the full changeover.
Winds at these sites will become easterly in the morning. Further
south, the low is projected to be just west of KSPI by late
morning, which will keep winds more southeasterly from KSPI-KCMI
until midday. At these sites, ceilings will quickly fall into MVFR
range as rain develops, but any switch to snow appears most likely
after 18Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 242036
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Abundant sunshine occurring across the forecast area this afternoon,
which has allowed temperatures to warm well into the 40s, with some
50 degree readings about to occur in west central Illinois. The
leading edge of the high clouds from our incoming storm system are
about to cross the Mississippi River, and should become more
widespread over our area toward sunset.

Latest surface map shows the low center in central North Dakota. The
12Z models have trended a bit south again with the track, but are in
general agreement with a position in the Quincy area by sunrise
Sunday, and associated warm front extending east across the northern
CWA. With the CWA largely in the warm sector overnight, have shown
only a couple degrees of temperature fall tonight with the entire
area remaining well above freezing. Have updated the alignment and
timing of the PoP`s to focus on the period after midnight, and also
increase them from the west. Higher resolution models start
spreading precipitation in from the west after about 3 am, which
soundings show as rain, although a bit of sleet is hinted at across
the northwest CWA, with a dry wedge between 925 and 850 mb.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After several days of significant spread and large north/south
swings in the storm track with Sunday`s clipper system, the models
have finally come into better agreement. The current consensus is
kind of a middle ground of the north/south extremes of the past few
days, although it leans more toward the southern tracks that had
been advertised. A more southern track is preferred considering how
much digging the clipper wave still appears to be doing on water
vapor imagery as it is diving into the northern Rockies/Plains.
Would not be surprised to see the ultimate track to be a little
south of the current model consensus, a track which result in an
associated shift of the main snowfall track.

The surface low center should be near the extreme tip of
west-central Illinois at 12Z Sunday, and will quickly race to the
southern tip of Ohio by 06Z Monday. The bulk of the precipitation
with this system should occur during the daylight hours Sunday as a
quick shot of modest isentropic ascent ahead of the wave, and jet
forcing/DPVA as the upper trof axis, swing through.

Measurable precipitation now appears to be a given areawide with
this system, and have boosted PoPs to Categorical (80%+) on Sunday.
The main question is rain versus snow, and how much snow will
accumulate. Temperatures to start the day across most if not all of
the forecast area will be too warm for snow to reach the ground
thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the clipper. Forecast
soundings suggest the low level thermal profile will steadily become
cool enough for a rain to snow transition from northwest to
southeast during the day as cold air wraps in on the north side of
the surface low. The change over should occur around Galesburg near
sunrise, along a Springfield to Champaign line around midday, and
south of I-70 by shortly after sunset. The current track and speed
of change over to snow supports 1-3 inch accumulations along and
north of the I-74 corridor, with an inch or less south of there. Any
lingering snow will quickly come to an end Sunday evening as the
clipper races south/east of the area.

Another wave, much weaker than the first one, will pass north of the
forecast area on Monday. Have started to back down from the already
low snow chances we had over northern portions of the forecast area
with this wave. The lead clipper is expected to develop into a major
east coast storm after it leaves the area, and Monday`s wave is
essentially shearing out into the much stronger system.

A stronger wave coming off the Pacific is expected to move through
the Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point, this
system appears warm enough to be mainly a rain producer. Another
system may arrive to start next weekend, but model agreement in the
details is pretty low at this time.

Temperatures through the next week should be at or above normal. The
coolest readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper,
and again Friday/Saturday behind the midweek system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Main forecast issue will be with deteriorating conditions late
tonight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions on tap through about
08Z at all sites, with a lowering ceiling ahead of a storm system
moving in from the northwest. The latest models have trended a bit
southward with the track, with KPIA/KBMI likely seeing IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities develop after 12Z as rain mixes with,
then changes to snow. Forecast soundings off the NAM also indicate
some sleet mixed in for a couple hours before the full changeover.
Winds at these sites will become easterly in the morning. Further
south, the low is projected to be just west of KSPI by late
morning, which will keep winds more southeasterly from KSPI-KCMI
until midday. At these sites, ceilings will quickly fall into MVFR
range as rain develops, but any switch to snow appears most likely
after 18Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 241723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Only made some minor adjustments to the forecast for today, namely
in the sky trends. Patch of stratocumulus has cleared much of the
forecast area as of late morning, and was mainly from Mattoon-
Champaign eastward. This should move out by midday. Some patches
of higher clouds will drift through during the day, with a general
increase in high clouds late ahead of the next storm system.

Early look at the 12Z models shows a continued slight southward
shift in the track of the incoming storm system. This would
indicate the potential for some higher snow accumulations than
what we have going now, especially north of the I-74 corridor.
Will more thoroughly analyze this over the next couple hours
before making any adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going SE into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow NE of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far NE CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in NE counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving SE across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/NE counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be NE of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 NE to the upper 30s to around 40F in SW counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville SW.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Main forecast issue will be with deteriorating conditions late
tonight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions on tap through about
08Z at all sites, with a lowering ceiling ahead of a storm system
moving in from the northwest. The latest models have trended a bit
southward with the track, with KPIA/KBMI likely seeing IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities develop after 12Z as rain mixes with,
then changes to snow. Forecast soundings off the NAM also indicate
some sleet mixed in for a couple hours before the full changeover.
Winds at these sites will become easterly in the morning. Further
south, the low is projected to be just west of KSPI by late
morning, which will keep winds more southeasterly from KSPI-KCMI
until midday. At these sites, ceilings will quickly fall into MVFR
range as rain develops, but any switch to snow appears most likely
after 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 241723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Only made some minor adjustments to the forecast for today, namely
in the sky trends. Patch of stratocumulus has cleared much of the
forecast area as of late morning, and was mainly from Mattoon-
Champaign eastward. This should move out by midday. Some patches
of higher clouds will drift through during the day, with a general
increase in high clouds late ahead of the next storm system.

Early look at the 12Z models shows a continued slight southward
shift in the track of the incoming storm system. This would
indicate the potential for some higher snow accumulations than
what we have going now, especially north of the I-74 corridor.
Will more thoroughly analyze this over the next couple hours
before making any adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going SE into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow NE of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far NE CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in NE counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving SE across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/NE counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be NE of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 NE to the upper 30s to around 40F in SW counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville SW.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Main forecast issue will be with deteriorating conditions late
tonight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions on tap through about
08Z at all sites, with a lowering ceiling ahead of a storm system
moving in from the northwest. The latest models have trended a bit
southward with the track, with KPIA/KBMI likely seeing IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities develop after 12Z as rain mixes with,
then changes to snow. Forecast soundings off the NAM also indicate
some sleet mixed in for a couple hours before the full changeover.
Winds at these sites will become easterly in the morning. Further
south, the low is projected to be just west of KSPI by late
morning, which will keep winds more southeasterly from KSPI-KCMI
until midday. At these sites, ceilings will quickly fall into MVFR
range as rain develops, but any switch to snow appears most likely
after 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 241603
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1003 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Only made some minor adjustments to the forecast for today, namely
in the sky trends. Patch of stratocumulus has cleared much of the
forecast area as of late morning, and was mainly from Mattoon-
Champaign eastward. This should move out by midday. Some patches
of higher clouds will drift through during the day, with a general
increase in high clouds late ahead of the next storm system.

Early look at the 12Z models shows a continued slight southward
shift in the track of the incoming storm system. This would
indicate the potential for some higher snow accumulations than
what we have going now, especially north of the I-74 corridor.
Will more thoroughly analyze this over the next couple hours
before making any adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going SE into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow NE of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far NE CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in NE counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving SE across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/NE counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be NE of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 NE to the upper 30s to around 40F in SW counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville SW.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 241603
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1003 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Only made some minor adjustments to the forecast for today, namely
in the sky trends. Patch of stratocumulus has cleared much of the
forecast area as of late morning, and was mainly from Mattoon-
Champaign eastward. This should move out by midday. Some patches
of higher clouds will drift through during the day, with a general
increase in high clouds late ahead of the next storm system.

Early look at the 12Z models shows a continued slight southward
shift in the track of the incoming storm system. This would
indicate the potential for some higher snow accumulations than
what we have going now, especially north of the I-74 corridor.
Will more thoroughly analyze this over the next couple hours
before making any adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going SE into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow NE of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far NE CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in NE counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving SE across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/NE counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be NE of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 NE to the upper 30s to around 40F in SW counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville SW.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KILX 241136
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 241136
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Band of MVFR cigs approaching PIA this hour and based on its
current movement will affect all but SPI thru the morning hours.
Cig bases range from 2500-3500 feet with the western edge of
the cloud deck possibly skirting PIA to the east, but for now,
will include an hour or two of the cigs at the PIA airport.
Short term models suggest some IFR or LIFR cigs and vsbys will
advect southeast into at least the northern half of the area
later this morning but have seen the models backing off that
solution in this hours run. Not seeing much in the upstream obs
to support this so will handle with a tempo group for a few hours
this morning, especially with the TAF sites along the western
periphery of the cloud band. The next weather system will push
southeast into our area after midnight bringing a gradual lowering
of the cigs along with the chance for rain to develop from northwest
to southeast after 06z. Surface winds today will be westerly at
10 to 15 kts and then start to back more into the southwest and
then south this afternoon and evening with speeds averaging from
7 to 12 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 240929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 240929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 240929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 240929
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going se into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf (averaging around a quarter of an inch) over
central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and
bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further
south track of storm system. Have increasing chances of light rain
after midnight tonight over central IL with just slight chances of
light rain late tonight in southeast IL from I-70 southeast. Light
snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but
most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid
30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops northern
counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2
inches of snow ne of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and
Sunday evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far ne
CWA over Marshall and northeast Vermilion counties. A winter
weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will
issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties
to 40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving se across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/ne counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be ne of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 ne to the upper 30s to around 40F in sw counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville sw.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 240549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 240549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Some minor adjustments. Mid clouds and southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching boundary. Boundary and llvl moisture starting to
spread low clouds north of the ILX terminals...but expected to
develop along PIA/BMI/CMI line by morning. BKN MVFR in the
morning...anticipated to move through and out of the region later
in the day, accompanied by a more nwrly wind. May see the forecast
improve a little quicker, but for now...keeping the MVFR cigs in
there in the north. More optimistic across SPI and DEC and
scattering the 2kft deck in the morning and dominating with cirrus
per HRRR and Bufkit soundings.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 240321
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
921 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments to the trend to VFR for ILX terminals this
late in the day. As the low clouds pull away... midlevels move in
from the NW. Mid level and southwesterly sfc winds through the
overnight until approach of a boundary/trof will bring back in the
low clouds. Models struggling somewhat in producing signif cloud
cover, although the soundings reflect the moisture. Without the
boundary, may have been a little less pessimistic. For now, will
maintain the BKN MVFR until cloud development/high res models can
offer a different solution. Winds more nwrly behind the boundary
tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 240321
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
921 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
Weak surface ridge and mostly clear skies slowly giving way to
some AC moving across the Midwest from the northwest. Forecast on
track as some warmer air advects into the region. No major updates
to the forecast anticipated other than some small adjustments to
the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments to the trend to VFR for ILX terminals this
late in the day. As the low clouds pull away... midlevels move in
from the NW. Mid level and southwesterly sfc winds through the
overnight until approach of a boundary/trof will bring back in the
low clouds. Models struggling somewhat in producing signif cloud
cover, although the soundings reflect the moisture. Without the
boundary, may have been a little less pessimistic. For now, will
maintain the BKN MVFR until cloud development/high res models can
offer a different solution. Winds more nwrly behind the boundary
tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 240008
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments to the trend to VFR for ILX terminals this
late in the day. As the low clouds pull away... midlevels move in
from the NW. Mid level and southwesterly sfc winds through the
overnight until approach of a boundary/trof will bring back in the
low clouds. Models struggling somewhat in producing signif cloud
cover, although the soundings reflect the moisture. Without the
boundary, may have been a little less pessimistic. For now, will
maintain the BKN MVFR until cloud development/high res models can
offer a different solution. Winds more nwrly behind the boundary
tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 240008
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Some minor adjustments to the trend to VFR for ILX terminals this
late in the day. As the low clouds pull away... midlevels move in
from the NW. Mid level and southwesterly sfc winds through the
overnight until approach of a boundary/trof will bring back in the
low clouds. Models struggling somewhat in producing signif cloud
cover, although the soundings reflect the moisture. Without the
boundary, may have been a little less pessimistic. For now, will
maintain the BKN MVFR until cloud development/high res models can
offer a different solution. Winds more nwrly behind the boundary
tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 232048
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Main concern in the short term will be with the timing of the
lifting of MVFR ceilings today. Clearing trend is making painfully
slow progress eastward. Have adjusted the timing of the clouds
scattering out based on the RAP model humidity level around 2000
feet, which would bring it to KPIA/KSPI around 23Z and to KCMI
around 01Z or so. This is a faster than a straight timing of the
cloud deck`s movement, as there are some thinning spots starting
to show up west of KPIA hinting at some potential afternoon
erosion, as suggested by the HRRR model. Any clearing will not
last terribly long, as mid and high clouds are already approaching
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be moving through the TAF
sites in the 10-14Z time frame on Saturday. While the front will
be dry, MVFR ceilings are likely to overspread central Illinois
Saturday morning following passage of the front.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 232048
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Clearing line from the morning stratocumulus deck was unable to make
any further eastward progress, so the clouds decided to dissolve in
place instead. 2 pm visible satellite imagery showing most areas
west of I-55 now mostly sunny, with the clouds rapidly eroding on
the western flank of what`s left. The clear skies won`t last too
long though, as mid-level cloud deck ahead of the next frontal
boundary is already in southeast Iowa. The boundary itself is still
back across eastern Nebraska through the Minneapolis area, and will
be moving through our forecast area between midnight and sunrise.
However, no precipitation is expected with it. Lows across the
forecast area should fall into the upper 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

By and large, the forecast period will be dominated by a ridge
west/trof east pattern across North America, a pattern that has been
pretty common of late. The fast moving northwest upper-level flow
that has been over the forecast area has had numerous, mainly weak,
impulses embedded within it traveling over or in our vicinity. Most
of these waves lately, and those expected over the next several
days, have been too weak and/or moisture starved to produce much
precipitation locally. This trend should continue to be the case for
most of the days of this forecast. However, a more significant
clipper system still appears on track to impact the area late
Saturday night into Sunday night. This system is our primary
forecast concern today.

A weak upper/surface trof will move across the area later
tonight/early Saturday, but it is only expected to be accompanied by
an increase in cloud cover. This cloud cover is currently evident
upstream from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

The timing of the main clipper is pretty well agreed upon, and has
been for a few days now, with the primary precipitation risk
occurring late Saturday night/early Sunday Morning into Sunday
afternoon. However, the track of the system continues to exhibit
considerable model spread, as well as run-to-run variability. The
overall model trend had been toward a more northerly track until
about 24 hours ago, but now the trend is back toward the south. The
northern track would have resulted in minimal precipitation risk for
the forecast area, with the bulk of it falling in the form of rain.
The more southern track, most pronounced in the latest run of the
GFS, would support more widespread precipitation locally, with at
least the northern portion of the forecast area in line for some
accumulating snow. Forecast confidence in the details with this
system remains low considering the variability/inconsistency.
However, given the trends of the past 24 hours, have boosted PoPs
into the Likely category for much of the forecast area on Sunday,
and added some light snow accumulation across the north. If the
models lock into a more southern solution, one that takes the
clipper just south of the forecast area like the current GFS,
temperatures will need to be lowered, PoPs raised, and snow amounts
boosted. For now, will be conservative with the changes until the
ultimate outcome is a little more clear.

For the remainder of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected. A
weak wave is most likely to impact the area Monday and again by
Thursday. However, these disturbances appear too weak to carry
mentionable precipitation at this time. Temperatures through the end
of the next work week should be at or above normal. The coolest
readings are likely Monday/Tuesday behind the main clipper, and
again Friday behind Thursday`s disturbance.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Main concern in the short term will be with the timing of the
lifting of MVFR ceilings today. Clearing trend is making painfully
slow progress eastward. Have adjusted the timing of the clouds
scattering out based on the RAP model humidity level around 2000
feet, which would bring it to KPIA/KSPI around 23Z and to KCMI
around 01Z or so. This is a faster than a straight timing of the
cloud deck`s movement, as there are some thinning spots starting
to show up west of KPIA hinting at some potential afternoon
erosion, as suggested by the HRRR model. Any clearing will not
last terribly long, as mid and high clouds are already approaching
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be moving through the TAF
sites in the 10-14Z time frame on Saturday. While the front will
be dry, MVFR ceilings are likely to overspread central Illinois
Saturday morning following passage of the front.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 231724
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Have updated the forecast to slow the clearing trends and lower
the highs as a result. Clearing line is now just crossing the
Illinois/Iowa border. The latest RAP 925 mb humidity, which
appears to match the clouds fairly well, holds off on any
significant clearing in the northwest CWA until around mid
afternoon and not in the eastern CWA until after sunset. Have gone
with highs in the upper 30s over nearly all the forecast area,
except around 40 in west central Illinois where there is likely to
be some sunshine by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Main concern in the short term will be with the timing of the
lifting of MVFR ceilings today. Clearing trend is making painfully
slow progress eastward. Have adjusted the timing of the clouds
scattering out based on the RAP model humidity level around 2000
feet, which would bring it to KPIA/KSPI around 23Z and to KCMI
around 01Z or so. This is a faster than a straight timing of the
cloud deck`s movement, as there are some thinning spots starting
to show up west of KPIA hinting at some potential afternoon
erosion, as suggested by the HRRR model. Any clearing will not
last terribly long, as mid and high clouds are already approaching
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be moving through the TAF
sites in the 10-14Z time frame on Saturday. While the front will
be dry, MVFR ceilings are likely to overspread central Illinois
Saturday morning following passage of the front.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 231724
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Have updated the forecast to slow the clearing trends and lower
the highs as a result. Clearing line is now just crossing the
Illinois/Iowa border. The latest RAP 925 mb humidity, which
appears to match the clouds fairly well, holds off on any
significant clearing in the northwest CWA until around mid
afternoon and not in the eastern CWA until after sunset. Have gone
with highs in the upper 30s over nearly all the forecast area,
except around 40 in west central Illinois where there is likely to
be some sunshine by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Main concern in the short term will be with the timing of the
lifting of MVFR ceilings today. Clearing trend is making painfully
slow progress eastward. Have adjusted the timing of the clouds
scattering out based on the RAP model humidity level around 2000
feet, which would bring it to KPIA/KSPI around 23Z and to KCMI
around 01Z or so. This is a faster than a straight timing of the
cloud deck`s movement, as there are some thinning spots starting
to show up west of KPIA hinting at some potential afternoon
erosion, as suggested by the HRRR model. Any clearing will not
last terribly long, as mid and high clouds are already approaching
ahead of a frontal boundary that will be moving through the TAF
sites in the 10-14Z time frame on Saturday. While the front will
be dry, MVFR ceilings are likely to overspread central Illinois
Saturday morning following passage of the front.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 231600
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1000 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Have updated the forecast to slow the clearing trends and lower
the highs as a result. Clearing line is now just crossing the
Illinois/Iowa border. The latest RAP 925 mb humidity, which
appears to match the clouds fairly well, holds off on any
significant clearing in the northwest CWA until around mid
afternoon and not in the eastern CWA until after sunset. Have gone
with highs in the upper 30s over nearly all the forecast area,
except around 40 in west central Illinois where there is likely to
be some sunshine by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Back edge of MVFR cigs making slow progress into extreme eastern
Iowa this morning and should push into our western TAF areas
between 16 and 18z. Based on the latest movement, it appears
the clouds won`t push east of CMI until after 22z. Forecast
soundings suggest that once the skies clear, we can expect VFR
conditions thru at least the first half of tonight before a
weak frontal boundary tracks thru the region switching our
flow from southwest to northwest and ushering in another batch
of MVFR cigs for Saturday. Surface flow today will increase out
of the southwest at 10 to 15 kts and then diminish some from the
southwest early this evening before switching into the west and
northwest later tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KILX 231103
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Backedge of MVFR cigs making slow progress into extreme eastern
Iowa this morning and should push into our western TAF areas
between 16 and 18z. Based on the latest movement, it appears
the clouds won`t push east of CMI until after 22z. Forecast
soundings suggest that once the skies clear, we can expect VFR
conditions thru at least the first half of tonight before a
weak frontal boundary tracks thru the region switching our
flow from southwest to northwest and ushering in another batch
of MVFR cigs for Saturday. Surface flow today will increase out
of the southwest at 10 to 15 kts and then diminish some from the
southwest early this evening before switching into the west and
northwest later tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KILX 231103
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Backedge of MVFR cigs making slow progress into extreme eastern
Iowa this morning and should push into our western TAF areas
between 16 and 18z. Based on the latest movement, it appears
the clouds won`t push east of CMI until after 22z. Forecast
soundings suggest that once the skies clear, we can expect VFR
conditions thru at least the first half of tonight before a
weak frontal boundary tracks thru the region switching our
flow from southwest to northwest and ushering in another batch
of MVFR cigs for Saturday. Surface flow today will increase out
of the southwest at 10 to 15 kts and then diminish some from the
southwest early this evening before switching into the west and
northwest later tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KILX 230859
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR expected through the overnight. HRRR and even timed
progression on sat imagery keeping the MVFR through midday. Think
that may be a little on the pessimistic side, but have slowed the
break up of the MVFR deck to at least mid morning. Some tempo vis
drops possible but not putting in predominant groups with the
increased cloud cover keeping the temps up a few degrees. Winds
light and variable tonight...light and increasingly southwesterly
through the day tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 230859
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing central
Illinois, as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion
centered around 900mb.  With only very light low-level flow under
prevailing surface high pressure, am not expecting the clouds to
clear out anytime soon.  HRRR suggests clouds will remain in place
through the morning, then will slowly begin to clear from west to
east during the afternoon.  Based on satellite timing tools, think
clearing will be slightly faster, reaching the Illinois River Valley
by mid to late morning and the I-55 corridor by early afternoon.
The far E/NE KILX CWA around Champaign and Danville will likely
remain overcast through the entire day.  High temperatures will
range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist
longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will
prevail this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Weak short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
southern Manitoba will drop into the Great Lakes tonight.  Any light
precip associated with this feature will remain well north of
central Illinois: however, a weak frontal boundary will push through
the area, allowing winds to switch to northwesterly by morning.
Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system
for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 40s.

Next more significant short-wave is still on target for Sunday, with
good model agreement concerning the strength and track of this
system.  Surface low pressure will drop out of Canada on Saturday,
then will track from northeast Iowa Sunday morning to Ohio by Sunday
evening.  With this particular track, the heaviest precipitation is
expected to remain further north along/north of the I-80 corridor.
Further south, the precip will be lighter and more scattered in
nature.  Based on GFS/ECMWF timing, will introduce low chance PoPs
after midnight Saturday, with higher PoPs across the board during
the day Sunday.  Atmospheric profile will remain marginal for snow,
so have only included a rain/snow mix along/north of I-74 Sunday
morning, before precip transitions to all rain by midday.  May see a
change to light snow/flurries Sunday night as precip departs and
colder air returns, but no snow accumulation is expected.

After that, another wave will track well north of the area Monday
and Monday night: however, dry conditions are anticipated this far
south.  Will be slightly cooler early next week as upper trough
remains in place across the eastern CONUS, resulting in highs in the
30s both Monday and Tuesday.  The trough will shift eastward later
in the period, allowing temps to return to the 40s by Wednesday and
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR expected through the overnight. HRRR and even timed
progression on sat imagery keeping the MVFR through midday. Think
that may be a little on the pessimistic side, but have slowed the
break up of the MVFR deck to at least mid morning. Some tempo vis
drops possible but not putting in predominant groups with the
increased cloud cover keeping the temps up a few degrees. Winds
light and variable tonight...light and increasingly southwesterly
through the day tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 230558
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
High pressure ridge axis just off to the west and light and
variable winds expected as a result through the overnight hours.
Erosion of the cloud deck to the west has slowed considerably
after sunset. Low level moisture trapped underneath this evenings
inversion not mixing out and keeping the clouds around overnight.
Adjusted the forecast to accommodate the cloudy skies and to
adjust the overnight lows to slightly warmer. Updates out
momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR expected through the overnight. HRRR and even timed
progression on sat imagery keeping the MVFR through midday. Think
that may be a little on the pessimistic side, but have slowed the
break up of the MVFR deck to at least mid morning. Some tempo vis
drops possible but not putting in predominant groups with the
increased cloud cover keeping the temps up a few degrees. Winds
light and variable tonight...light and increasingly southwesterly
through the day tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 230558
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
High pressure ridge axis just off to the west and light and
variable winds expected as a result through the overnight hours.
Erosion of the cloud deck to the west has slowed considerably
after sunset. Low level moisture trapped underneath this evenings
inversion not mixing out and keeping the clouds around overnight.
Adjusted the forecast to accommodate the cloudy skies and to
adjust the overnight lows to slightly warmer. Updates out
momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
MVFR expected through the overnight. HRRR and even timed
progression on sat imagery keeping the MVFR through midday. Think
that may be a little on the pessimistic side, but have slowed the
break up of the MVFR deck to at least mid morning. Some tempo vis
drops possible but not putting in predominant groups with the
increased cloud cover keeping the temps up a few degrees. Winds
light and variable tonight...light and increasingly southwesterly
through the day tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 230301
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
High pressure ridge axis just off to the west and light and
variable winds expected as a result through the overnight hours.
Erosion of the cloud deck to the west has slowed considerably
after sunset. Low level moisture trapped underneath this evenings
inversion not mixing out and keeping the clouds around overnight.
Adjusted the forecast to accommodate the cloudy skies and to
adjust the overnight lows to slightly warmer. Updates out
momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much of a shift in the forecast. MVFR cigs and light and
variable winds through the overnight. Broad area of high pressure
over the region centered just off to the west. Llvl moisture
trapped under increasing inversion through the overnight hours
and the erosion of the western edge of the cloud deck slowing
considerably after sunset. Delayed the scattering out in the
morning and concerned it may still be a little optimistic. NAM of
course far deeper with the llvl RH...but GFS still hanging on through
mid morning. May see a trend to hang onto MVFR a little longer.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 230301
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015
High pressure ridge axis just off to the west and light and
variable winds expected as a result through the overnight hours.
Erosion of the cloud deck to the west has slowed considerably
after sunset. Low level moisture trapped underneath this evenings
inversion not mixing out and keeping the clouds around overnight.
Adjusted the forecast to accommodate the cloudy skies and to
adjust the overnight lows to slightly warmer. Updates out
momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much of a shift in the forecast. MVFR cigs and light and
variable winds through the overnight. Broad area of high pressure
over the region centered just off to the west. Llvl moisture
trapped under increasing inversion through the overnight hours
and the erosion of the western edge of the cloud deck slowing
considerably after sunset. Delayed the scattering out in the
morning and concerned it may still be a little optimistic. NAM of
course far deeper with the llvl RH...but GFS still hanging on through
mid morning. May see a trend to hang onto MVFR a little longer.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 222352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much of a shift in the forecast. MVFR cigs and light and
variable winds through the overnight. Broad area of high pressure
over the region centered just off to the west. Llvl moisture
trapped under increasing inversion through the overnight hours
and the erosion of the western edge of the cloud deck slowing
considerably after sunset. Delayed the scattering out in the
morning and concerned it may still be a little optimistic. NAM of
course far deeper with the llvl RH...but GFS still hanging on through
mid morning. May see a trend to hang onto MVFR a little longer.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 222352
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the Midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much of a shift in the forecast. MVFR cigs and light and
variable winds through the overnight. Broad area of high pressure
over the region centered just off to the west. Llvl moisture
trapped under increasing inversion through the overnight hours
and the erosion of the western edge of the cloud deck slowing
considerably after sunset. Delayed the scattering out in the
morning and concerned it may still be a little optimistic. NAM of
course far deeper with the llvl RH...but GFS still hanging on through
mid morning. May see a trend to hang onto MVFR a little longer.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 222058
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR conditions to prevail at most of the TAF sites through the
evening, with ceilings generally 2000-2500 feet. Have seen some
recent lowering at KBMI below 1000 feet, where visibilities are
still around 3SM at 17Z, but believe this will not last long and
will include a short TEMPO group for IFR ceilings. At KCMI, a
ceilings from about KCMI-KDNV northward along the Indiana border
have mostly risen into VFR range, but there will be some
fluctuations around the 3000 foot height into mid afternoon before
dipping back down again. Winds to be light and variable into much
of the evening, as an area of high pressure settles southward,
before trending more southwesterly late in the night once the high
passes. Have shown general improvements into the VFR range in the
10-13Z time frame.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 222058
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Area of high pressure extends from northeast Kansas into west
central Illinois early this afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield
remains in place over a large part of the midwest, but is showing
erosion southward from Wisconsin and eastward from the central
Plains. The main forecast concern for this period is the speed of
this erosion. The high will be settling southward across the CWA
this evening, but forecast soundings show a tight inversion around
2000 feet hanging in place. Low level layer humidity plots off the
RAP and NAM suggest the clouds will gradually contract from all
sides. Looking at the forecast soundings off the RAP, the cloud
layer remains about 600-700 feet thick after midnight over most of
the area, but continues to erode from the west and north late in the
night. Have used this contraction philosophy in the sky grids for
tonight, going mostly cloudy everywhere this evening, then becoming
partly cloudy everywhere except east central Illinois after
midnight. With that area keeping the clouds longer, the temperatures
will remain more elevated in eastern Illinois, but went with lows in
the lower 20s across the northwest CWA where the clouds should break
up sooner.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Mostly quiet weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois through the next week. However, it can not be said that
completely dry weather is anticipated due to a persistent northwest
upper-level flow that will have mainly weak impulses embedded within
it. Any of these waves have at least the potential for a little
light snow or light rain, depending on the low-level thermal
profiles, but dry conditions are expected more often than not. Also,
most of the weak impulses, not surprisingly, exhibit a spread of
timing and/or track solutions that makes singling out a specific
threat of precipitation difficult at best.

However, there is one clipper system that has been more consistently
agreed upon during the period. This system is still on track to dive
across the Midwest late Saturday night into Sunday night. Not much
of a shift has been seen in the storm track in the latest model
runs, but this system had been trending north lately. At this point,
the ECMWF is the furthest south, crossing northern Illinois on
Sunday. Most other solutions take the clipper across southern
Wisconsin. This track is not terribly favorable for the forecast
area to see much precipitation at all, and what does fall is more
likely to be rain given the more northerly track of the system.
However, thermal profiles on the ECMWF support at least a little
snow across the north before the precipitation threat completely
ends. In any event, barring any southward shift in the storm track,
our local precipitation threat will be pretty minimal.

Temperatures through the next several days will average at or above
normal, with the coolest conditions expected for Monday behind the
late weekend clipper. A better cold shot looks likely beyond this
forecast period, heading into the next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR conditions to prevail at most of the TAF sites through the
evening, with ceilings generally 2000-2500 feet. Have seen some
recent lowering at KBMI below 1000 feet, where visibilities are
still around 3SM at 17Z, but believe this will not last long and
will include a short TEMPO group for IFR ceilings. At KCMI, a
ceilings from about KCMI-KDNV northward along the Indiana border
have mostly risen into VFR range, but there will be some
fluctuations around the 3000 foot height into mid afternoon before
dipping back down again. Winds to be light and variable into much
of the evening, as an area of high pressure settles southward,
before trending more southwesterly late in the night once the high
passes. Have shown general improvements into the VFR range in the
10-13Z time frame.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart








000
FXUS63 KILX 221725
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much change needed to the going forecast. Cloud cover to
remain rather extensive today, as forecast soundings show an
inversion around 925 mb holding firm. Visible satellite imagery
showing some thin spots in the cloud cover, but these should be
temporary. Fog across the northeast/east CWA has been improving
and visibility is generally above 2 miles in these areas now. With
little sunshine, temperatures not expected to show a lot of rise.
Have sent some updated grids to refresh the hourly trends, with
new zone forecast to follow in about 15 minutes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing nearly the
entire KILX CWA, with the exception of locations along and southwest
of a Taylorville to Lawrenceville line. Temperatures are holding
steady in the lower to middle 30s beneath the cloud deck, but have
dipped into the upper 20s where less cloud cover prevails.  Further
north, an elongated shear axis noted on water vapor imagery
extending from Michigan to Nebraska is sinking slowly southward and
is providing enough synoptic lift to trigger scattered snow flurries
across north-central Illinois.  Radar imagery shows weak echoes
across this area and have seen an occasional report of flurries on
upstream surface obs as well.  Have therefore added scattered flurries
and patchy fog to mainly locations along/north of the I-74 corridor
through the morning hours.  With little or no low-level flow present
today, do not see any mechanism for getting rid of the cloud cover.
Have therefore increased sky cover to go with an overcast forecast
across the board.  Thanks to the clouds and a very light N/NW
wind, temps will be cooler than in previous days.  Will stick fairly
close to numeric guidance, with afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

First forecast challenge beyond today will be timing the clearing
trend tonight.  Model soundings disagree on how fast it will occur,
with the NAM being much more pessimistic with cloud cover persisting
through the night.  Meanwhile the GFS suggests skies will gradually
clear from northwest to southeast overnight.  Think NAM may be
suffering from its usual low-level moist bias, so have trended more
toward the GFS with this forecast package.  With surface high
pressure building into the region, have started the evening with
mostly cloudy conditions, but have cleared things out everywhere by
dawn.  Thanks to high pressure, mostly sunny and mild conditions
will prevail on Friday, with high temps rebounding into the 40s.
Another fast-moving clipper system will track into the Great Lakes
Friday night into Saturday.  While any precip associated with this
feature will remain well to the north of central Illinois, winds
will switch to the northwest and clouds will spill back into the
area on Saturday.

Next stronger wave is still on target for late in the weekend,
although 00z Jan 22 models continue a northward trend with its
track.  Just a few days ago, the GFS was showing this system and its
associated surface low tracking across southern Illinois on Sunday,
but it has now shifted the track into southern Wisconsin.  This is
more in line with the ECMWF/UKMET/GEM, which have been showing a
more northerly position for the past several runs.  Latest ECMWF is
a bit further south than it has been, but is still across
north-central Illinois.  End result is growing confidence that very
little precip will occur Sunday/Sunday night as the system tracks by
to the north.  Will continue to feature slight chance PoPs coming
into the far W/NW CWA late Saturday night, with the highest PoPs
focused along/north of I-74 on Sunday.  With surface temps expected
to rise well into the 40s, any rain/snow mix at the onset will
quickly change to rain by midday.  May see precip change back to a
rain/snow mix Sunday night as colder air returns on the back side of
the departing wave, but little or no snow accumulation is
anticipated.  After that, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the extended with chilly temps in the 30s on Monday
rising back into the 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR conditions to prevail at most of the TAF sites through the
evening, with ceilings generally 2000-2500 feet. Have seen some
recent lowering at KBMI below 1000 feet, where visibilities are
still around 3SM at 17Z, but believe this will not last long and
will include a short TEMPO group for IFR ceilings. At KCMI, a
ceilings from about KCMI-KDNV northward along the Indiana border
have mostly risen into VFR range, but there will be some
fluctuations around the 3000 foot height into mid afternoon before
dipping back down again. Winds to be light and variable into much
of the evening, as an area of high pressure settles southward,
before trending more southwesterly late in the night once the high
passes. Have shown general improvements into the VFR range in the
10-13Z time frame.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart







000
FXUS63 KILX 221725
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Not much change needed to the going forecast. Cloud cover to
remain rather extensive today, as forecast soundings show an
inversion around 925 mb holding firm. Visible satellite imagery
showing some thin spots in the cloud cover, but these should be
temporary. Fog across the northeast/east CWA has been improving
and visibility is generally above 2 miles in these areas now. With
little sunshine, temperatures not expected to show a lot of rise.
Have sent some updated grids to refresh the hourly trends, with
new zone forecast to follow in about 15 minutes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

08z/2am IR satellite imagery shows low clouds blanketing nearly the
entire KILX CWA, with the exception of locations along and southwest
of a Taylorville to Lawrenceville line. Temperatures are holding
steady in the lower to middle 30s beneath the cloud deck, but have
dipped into the upper 20s where less cloud cover prevails.  Further
north, an elongated shear axis noted on water vapor imagery
extending from Michigan to Nebraska is sinking slowly southward and
is providing enough synoptic lift to trigger scattered snow flurries
across north-central Illinois.  Radar imagery shows weak echoes
across this area and have seen an occasional report of flurries on
upstream surface obs as well.  Have therefore added scattered flurries
and patchy fog to mainly locations along/north of the I-74 corridor
through the morning hours.  With little or no low-level flow present
today, do not see any mechanism for getting rid of the cloud cover.
Have therefore increased sky cover to go with an overcast forecast
across the board.  Thanks to the clouds and a very light N/NW
wind, temps will be cooler than in previous days.  Will stick fairly
close to numeric guidance, with afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

First forecast challenge beyond today will be timing the clearing
trend tonight.  Model soundings disagree on how fast it will occur,
with the NAM being much more pessimistic with cloud cover persisting
through the night.  Meanwhile the GFS suggests skies will gradually
clear from northwest to southeast overnight.  Think NAM may be
suffering from its usual low-level moist bias, so have trended more
toward the GFS with this forecast package.  With surface high
pressure building into the region, have started the evening with
mostly cloudy conditions, but have cleared things out everywhere by
dawn.  Thanks to high pressure, mostly sunny and mild conditions
will prevail on Friday, with high temps rebounding into the 40s.
Another fast-moving clipper system will track into the Great Lakes
Friday night into Saturday.  While any precip associated with this
feature will remain well to the north of central Illinois, winds
will switch to the northwest and clouds will spill back into the
area on Saturday.

Next stronger wave is still on target for late in the weekend,
although 00z Jan 22 models continue a northward trend with its
track.  Just a few days ago, the GFS was showing this system and its
associated surface low tracking across southern Illinois on Sunday,
but it has now shifted the track into southern Wisconsin.  This is
more in line with the ECMWF/UKMET/GEM, which have been showing a
more northerly position for the past several runs.  Latest ECMWF is
a bit further south than it has been, but is still across
north-central Illinois.  End result is growing confidence that very
little precip will occur Sunday/Sunday night as the system tracks by
to the north.  Will continue to feature slight chance PoPs coming
into the far W/NW CWA late Saturday night, with the highest PoPs
focused along/north of I-74 on Sunday.  With surface temps expected
to rise well into the 40s, any rain/snow mix at the onset will
quickly change to rain by midday.  May see precip change back to a
rain/snow mix Sunday night as colder air returns on the back side of
the departing wave, but little or no snow accumulation is
anticipated.  After that, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the extended with chilly temps in the 30s on Monday
rising back into the 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR conditions to prevail at most of the TAF sites through the
evening, with ceilings generally 2000-2500 feet. Have seen some
recent lowering at KBMI below 1000 feet, where visibilities are
still around 3SM at 17Z, but believe this will not last long and
will include a short TEMPO group for IFR ceilings. At KCMI, a
ceilings from about KCMI-KDNV northward along the Indiana border
have mostly risen into VFR range, but there will be some
fluctuations around the 3000 foot height into mid afternoon before
dipping back down again. Winds to be light and variable into much
of the evening, as an area of high pressure settles southward,
before trending more southwesterly late in the night once the high
passes. Have shown general improvements into the VFR range in the
10-13Z time frame.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart








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