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000
FXUS63 KILX 290830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers.  Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 290830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Upper level ridge over the western half of the country, and trof
over the eastern half... putting much of the northern Plains and
the Midwest under northwesterly flow. This pattern sticks around
for the next few days, with weak flow under a building surface
high. Forecast dominated by slowly creeping up temperatures,
though remaining below normal, and afternoon instability showers.
Best chances for precip heading into the weekend, however, with
another wave on its way as well as a kicker to shift the pattern
aloft and move the trof out of the region by the end of the
weekend. Though models are consistent with the overall trend of
the pattern, the details on timing and extent of the afternoon
showers differs here and there...as well as the
timing/impact/strength of the Fri/Friday evening wave.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Each day a degree or two warmer than the previous day.
Northwesterly winds today as the high continues to build into the
region. Tomorrows winds a bit more west/northwesterly and somewhat
lighter. Rain chances today should remain limited to the
northwest. Though a few models are coming in dry...and the GFS the
other extreme with overblown convection... the more high res model
data output in the 4km wrf and the HRRR is showing some shower
activity to the NE. Wave diving into the trof visible on wv sat
imagery this morning will assist the diurnal afternoon development
and cannot completely rule out some isolated shower activity.
However, tomorrows afternoon showers access more instability in
the midlevels, albeit a small amount, and pops spread over much of
ILX tomorrow with the addition of thunder.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow through the
end of the week with some small impulses assisting the afternoon
showers.  Models continue to enhance this activity on Thursday
night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into the west
coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west. GFS far
more aggressive with the precip and the ECMWF is timing a little
quicker with the wave and missing the collision with the max
afternoon heating...and therefore much less qpf. Models beginning
to signal the progression of the deep trof out of the region for
late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a return to warmer
conditions.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 290454
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Skies have become mostly clear and winds have diminished. Current
forecast looks to be on track, so no major update needed at this time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 290454
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Skies have become mostly clear and winds have diminished. Current
forecast looks to be on track, so no major update needed at this time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies will continue overnight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning, and then dissipate again during the evening. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then northwesterly again
tomorrow at around 10kts. Winds will then become light again
during the evening out of the west-southwest.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 290152
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Skies have become mostly clear and winds have diminished. Current
forecast looks to be on track, so no major update needed at this time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds will gradually vanish across the area and should leave a
clear skies tonight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning. Winds will be out of the north at 8-10kts this
evening. But winds should become light and variable remainder of
the night, then northwesterly again tomorrow at around 10kts.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 282307
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
607 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds will gradually vanish across the area and should leave a
clear skies tonight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning. Winds will be out of the north at 8-10kts this
evening. But winds should become light and variable remainder of
the night, then northwesterly again tomorrow at around 10kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 282307
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
607 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds will gradually vanish across the area and should leave a
clear skies tonight. With cwa remaining in cyclonic northwest
flow, expecting scattered clouds to develop again tomorrow during
the morning. Winds will be out of the north at 8-10kts this
evening. But winds should become light and variable remainder of
the night, then northwesterly again tomorrow at around 10kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 282011
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows mainly scattered diurnal
clouds across central Illinois: however, a more concentrated area
is noted east of a KBMI to KDEC line. As a result have included a
2-hour TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings at KCMI early this afternoon.
Clouds will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies
expected overnight. Brisk N/NW winds will continue through the
afternoon hours, with occasional gusts to around 20kt. Atmosphere
will decouple after sunset, resulting in light/variable winds
overnight. After that, NW winds of around 10kt will resume Tuesday
morning.

Barnes
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 282011
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

An extended period of below normal temps is on tap this week as a
long wave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS.
Shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft will combine with steep
mid-level lapse rates in the cooler air to produce afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances through the week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure centered from the Dakotas to Oklahoma will
gradually build southeast into Illinois over the next couple of
days. A progressive surface low in the northeast states will lift
into Canada tonight, but additional low pressure in NE Ontario
will rotate toward the Great Lakes in its wake on Tuesday. Time-
height cross-sections over the next week show a layer of moisture
persisting in the 800-900mb layer into next weekend.

Diurnal cumulus this afternoon were somewhat thicker in our
eastern and southern areas as a weak surface trough moved south
into Kentucky. Better vertical cloud development remained west of
Illinois in Iowa, where a few radar returns may have indicated a
brief shower or sprinkles. Clouds in our forecast area should
continue their diurnal trend and dissipate shortly after sunset.

With expectation of mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, we
undercut guidance lows slightly and went with low to mid 50s
across the board. It will be out coldest night of the week as
850mb temps remain in the 9C-11C range. The coldest air will
remain centered east of Illinois.

Tuesday will bring a return of low rain chances across northern
Illinois and as far south as Bloomington to
Champaign/Danville...as upper level energy and the cold pool
trigger a few showers. Thunder chances will remain very low. A
warming trend is expected in overnight lows as 850mb temps climb a
few degrees by Tue night.

A stronger shortwave just southwest of Illinois on Wednesday
prompted the expansion of the slight chances of rain farther
southwest across the remainder of our forecast area. The 12z model
guidance had better agreement of a more active shower pattern in
IL mainly associated with a trough rotating south of Lake
Michigan, but with possible increased synoptic scale forcing from
the wave SW of IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Extended model output for Thursday showed a trough axis
progressing into Illinois around the longwave trough. That usually
is associated with additional cold air and shortwave energy, but
the models were not indicating much of either one during that time
frame. Therefore we kept PoP down in the slight chance category on
Thursday.

Friday had much better agreement in the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
Global for a stronger piece of energy rotating across IL. Chance
PoPs for rain and storms were included across the board. Updraft
strength looked more favorable for ice development and subsequent
lightning production. Similar chances for precip were included on
Saturday as the upper trough is forecast to sharpen across Indiana
and keep much of Illinois in the thermal trough.

Upper level ridging is projected for Sunday and Monday, which
should coincide with an end to the daily precip chances, and a
slight warming trend in highs and lows, but still below normal.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows mainly scattered diurnal
clouds across central Illinois: however, a more concentrated area
is noted east of a KBMI to KDEC line. As a result have included a
2-hour TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings at KCMI early this afternoon.
Clouds will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies
expected overnight. Brisk N/NW winds will continue through the
afternoon hours, with occasional gusts to around 20kt. Atmosphere
will decouple after sunset, resulting in light/variable winds
overnight. After that, NW winds of around 10kt will resume Tuesday
morning.

Barnes
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 281727
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mostly sunny and cool conditions prevail across central Illinois
this morning. Thanks to cyclonic flow aloft and 500mb temps of
around -11 to -12C, a good deal of diurnal Cu is expected to
develop. NAM Cu-rule suggests the greatest coverage will likely be
across east-central and southeast Illinois and the latest visible
satellite imagery supports this. Current forecast features mostly
sunny skies across much of the KILX CWA, with partly sunny
conditions along/south of I-70. Think this still looks good, so am
not planning any forecast updates at this time.


Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows mainly scattered diurnal
clouds across central Illinois: however, a more concentrated area
is noted east of a KBMI to KDEC line. As a result have included a
2-hour TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings at KCMI early this afternoon.
Clouds will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies
expected overnight. Brisk N/NW winds will continue through the
afternoon hours, with occasional gusts to around 20kt. Atmosphere
will decouple after sunset, resulting in light/variable winds
overnight. After that, NW winds of around 10kt will resume Tuesday
morning.

Barnes
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 281727
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mostly sunny and cool conditions prevail across central Illinois
this morning. Thanks to cyclonic flow aloft and 500mb temps of
around -11 to -12C, a good deal of diurnal Cu is expected to
develop. NAM Cu-rule suggests the greatest coverage will likely be
across east-central and southeast Illinois and the latest visible
satellite imagery supports this. Current forecast features mostly
sunny skies across much of the KILX CWA, with partly sunny
conditions along/south of I-70. Think this still looks good, so am
not planning any forecast updates at this time.


Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows mainly scattered diurnal
clouds across central Illinois: however, a more concentrated area
is noted east of a KBMI to KDEC line. As a result have included a
2-hour TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings at KCMI early this afternoon.
Clouds will rapidly dissipate toward sunset, with clear skies
expected overnight. Brisk N/NW winds will continue through the
afternoon hours, with occasional gusts to around 20kt. Atmosphere
will decouple after sunset, resulting in light/variable winds
overnight. After that, NW winds of around 10kt will resume Tuesday
morning.

Barnes
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 281541
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1041 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mostly sunny and cool conditions prevail across central Illinois
this morning. Thanks to cyclonic flow aloft and 500mb temps of
around -11 to -12C, a good deal of diurnal Cu is expected to
develop. NAM Cu-rule suggests the greatest coverage will likely be
across east-central and southeast Illinois and the latest visible
satellite imagery supports this. Current forecast features mostly
sunny skies across much of the KILX CWA, with partly sunny
conditions along/south of I-70. Think this still looks good, so am
not planning any forecast updates at this time.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Dry north-northwesterly flow affecting central Illinois today. Advection
of cool and dry air into low levels will keep all daytime
convective cloud cover capped around 800 mb/5000 AGL for dry
conditions and sct to locally bkn coverage around 3000-4000 AGL.
Daytime cloud cover will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds
increasing to NNW10-15G18-22 kts by 15-16Z diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Onton
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 281541
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1041 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mostly sunny and cool conditions prevail across central Illinois
this morning. Thanks to cyclonic flow aloft and 500mb temps of
around -11 to -12C, a good deal of diurnal Cu is expected to
develop. NAM Cu-rule suggests the greatest coverage will likely be
across east-central and southeast Illinois and the latest visible
satellite imagery supports this. Current forecast features mostly
sunny skies across much of the KILX CWA, with partly sunny
conditions along/south of I-70. Think this still looks good, so am
not planning any forecast updates at this time.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Dry north-northwesterly flow affecting central Illinois today. Advection
of cool and dry air into low levels will keep all daytime
convective cloud cover capped around 800 mb/5000 AGL for dry
conditions and sct to locally bkn coverage around 3000-4000 AGL.
Daytime cloud cover will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds
increasing to NNW10-15G18-22 kts by 15-16Z diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Onton
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 281136
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
636 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Dry north-northwesterly flow affecting central Illinois today. Advection
of cool and dry air into low levels will keep all daytime
convective cloud cover capped around 800 mb/5000 AGL for dry
conditions and sct to locally bkn coverage around 3000-4000 AGL.
Daytime cloud cover will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds
increasing to NNW10-15G18-22 kts by 15-16Z diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 280830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Scattered clouds are dropping south through northern IL as the as
the upper level trough slowly slides to the east. These scattered
clouds are at varying levels, but seem to be around 4kft. So will
have all sites starting as scattered 4kft overnight. Additional CU
will develop tomorrow as well so will be keeping scattered clouds
at all sites through the day, though heights will be little higher
than now. Then skies should clear tomorrow evening. Winds will be
west to northwest overnight around 8-10kts, then pick up a little
tomorrow out of the north-northwest. As ridging builds into the
area tomorrow evening, winds will be light and variable.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 280830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
quite sparse.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Scattered clouds are dropping south through northern IL as the as
the upper level trough slowly slides to the east. These scattered
clouds are at varying levels, but seem to be around 4kft. So will
have all sites starting as scattered 4kft overnight. Additional CU
will develop tomorrow as well so will be keeping scattered clouds
at all sites through the day, though heights will be little higher
than now. Then skies should clear tomorrow evening. Winds will be
west to northwest overnight around 8-10kts, then pick up a little
tomorrow out of the north-northwest. As ridging builds into the
area tomorrow evening, winds will be light and variable.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 280452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Skies have become clear with winds finally diminishing and loosing
the gusts. These conditions should continue overnight. Current
forecast has a good handle on this, so no update planned tonight.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Scattered clouds are dropping south through northern IL as the as
the upper level trough slowly slides to the east. These scattered
clouds are at varying levels, but seem to be around 4kft. So will
have all sites starting as scattered 4kft overnight. Additional CU
will develop tomorrow as well so will be keeping scattered clouds
at all sites through the day, though heights will be little higher
than now. Then skies should clear tomorrow evening. Winds will be
west to northwest overnight around 8-10kts, then pick up a little
tomorrow out of the north-northwest. As ridging builds into the
area tomorrow evening, winds will be light and variable.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point discontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 280452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Skies have become clear with winds finally diminishing and loosing
the gusts. These conditions should continue overnight. Current
forecast has a good handle on this, so no update planned tonight.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Scattered clouds are dropping south through northern IL as the as
the upper level trough slowly slides to the east. These scattered
clouds are at varying levels, but seem to be around 4kft. So will
have all sites starting as scattered 4kft overnight. Additional CU
will develop tomorrow as well so will be keeping scattered clouds
at all sites through the day, though heights will be little higher
than now. Then skies should clear tomorrow evening. Winds will be
west to northwest overnight around 8-10kts, then pick up a little
tomorrow out of the north-northwest. As ridging builds into the
area tomorrow evening, winds will be light and variable.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point discontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 280201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Skies have become clear with winds finally diminishing and loosing
the gusts. These conditions should continue overnight. Current
forecast has a good handle on this, so no update planned tonight.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds at around 6-7kft remain over the area, but given they are
diurnal, they should mostly dissipate this evening around 2z.
Skies will then be mostly clear to clear overnight. Then CU will
develop again tomorrow morning, starting at around 4kft but rising
up to 7kft again tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be northwest and a
little breezy this evening, but should diminish around 02z and not
have any gusts. Tomorrow winds should be more northerly with some
gusts, but only to around 20kts.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point discontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 272312
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point discontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds at around 6-7kft remain over the area, but given they are
diurnal, they should mostly dissipate this evening around 2z.
Skies will then be mostly clear to clear overnight. Then CU will
develop again tomorrow morning, starting at around 4kft but rising
up to 7kft again tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be northwest and a
little breezy this evening, but should diminish around 02z and not
have any gusts. Tomorrow winds should be more northerly with some
gusts, but only to around 20kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 272312
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point discontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Scattered
clouds at around 6-7kft remain over the area, but given they are
diurnal, they should mostly dissipate this evening around 2z.
Skies will then be mostly clear to clear overnight. Then CU will
develop again tomorrow morning, starting at around 4kft but rising
up to 7kft again tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be northwest and a
little breezy this evening, but should diminish around 02z and not
have any gusts. Tomorrow winds should be more northerly with some
gusts, but only to around 20kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 271906
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 271906
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

18z Surface map indicating cold front has shifted into extreme
southern Illinois with a secondary boundary/dew point dicontinuity
located from near Chicago southwest to Bloomington to just south
of Quincy. Early afternoon temps have risen into the mid to upper
80s with dew points still in the 70s to the east of the secondary
boundary, with upper 50s to lower 60 dew points filtering southeast
into west central IL. Along and just to the east of this dew point
discontinuity, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed. Local objective analysis indicates Mixed Layer Capes of
1500-2000 J/Kg to the east of boundary with minimal low level
convergence noted at 18z. 0-6km bulk shear values in the 50-60 kt
range, so any strong updraft along the boundary will have the
capability of producing gusty winds. Visible satellite data showing
quite a bit of wrap around moisture shifting south into the lower
Great Lakes early this afternoon as an upper level trof shifts
southeast.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Main forecast challenge this period will be with temperatures and
amount of cloud cover and possible showers associated with the
aforementioned Great Lakes trof as it slowly settles south into
the upper Midwest early this week. Models in decent agreement with
respect to the trof deepening in over the Great Lakes this week.
As the cooler temps aloft and high based cu field settle south,
we may see some shower activity across the northeast into early
this evening but several of the hi-res models suggest the bulk of
the shower threat should be east of our area by early this eve so
at this point will keep the evening portion of the forecast dry.
Forecast soundings have suggested the potential for some ground fog
development by morning but with as much mixing that is occurring
this afternoon, will hold off mentioning for now. The southeast may
be close as they will be last to really mix out later this afternoon,
but even there will keep it out of the forecast.

Rather quiet weather expected over the remainder of the forecast period
with the upper trof settling south over the next several days. As temps
aloft continue to cool, our chances for some diurnally driven showers
and storms will increase, especially as we head towards midweek and
beyond. Latest NAM-WRF model indicates parts of our area may see some
afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon. Think that model may be too
strong aloft with the trof and associated cold pool so will tend to
side more with the GFS solution in keeping the area dry for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal but on the pleasant side with
afternoon temps in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Tuesday and around
80 by Wednesday with early morning lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Low ensemble spread with the trof expected to drop south into the
Ohio Valley by the weekend. The real challenge will be how the
medium range models handle the individual shortwaves rotating thru
the trof and combining with daytime heating and cool temperatures
aloft to bring about daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers during this period. 850 temp progs suggest not a great deal
of temperature change during this period. We should edge back to
or just above 80 for daytime highs with early morning lows around
60 degrees.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 271758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1258 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main adjustment is
low cloud cover lingering longer than earlier expected se of I-55.
Skies should still become partly to mostly sunny across central
and evenually eastern IL during the afternoon. Will continue
small chances of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL mainly
east of I-57 this afternoon. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
from the IL/IN border east across IN/KY/OH with moderate risk over
in the foothills of the Appalachians in eastern KY and southern OH.
Cold front was pushing se into far southeast IL near the Wabash
River late this morning with WNW winds increasing behind the front
over central IL and gusting 15-25 mph over IL river valley. Still
muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s se of IL river and upper 60s
nw of IL river. Dewpoints drop off into the upper 50s and lower
60s upstream near the IA/IL border and should advect se into
central IL during the afternoon. Southeast IL will still be muggy
today where dewpoints currently in mid 70s but should slip into
the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid
80s look on track today with return of more sunshine with some
upper 80s near Lawrenceville.

07


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

One cold front has passed southeast of IL by early afternoon with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it over OH and
eastern KY. Meanwhile another frontal boundary delineated by
enhanced narrow band of cumulus clouds extended from the south side
of Chicago through BMI airport to Jacksonville. Tropical/muggy
dewpoints in lower to middle 70s se of this boundary, while dewpoints
fall through the 60s and even some upper 50s over IL river valley.
Isolated convection recently developed along and just ahead of
this boundary southeast of BMI. Will carry VCSH at southeast airports
of DEC and CMI next few hours until this boundary passes se of
them during mid afternoon. Have scattered cumulus clouds 2.5-5k ft
this afternoon and broken at times from I-55 se next few hours
with high end MVFR ceilings possible. Broken cumulus cloud field
over WI/MN and central/ne IA could skirt northern taf sites of PIA
and BMI later this afternoon and early evening. Breezy WNW winds
12-17 kts with gusts 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening to
diminish to 7-10 kts after sunset. Drier air advecting into
central IL should limit fog development overnight to patchy
shallow ground fog near rivers/streams especially in southeast IL,
so kept out of TAFS. Expect NNW winds 9-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Monday
with few gusts near 20 kts by midday Monday as scattered cumulus
clouds around 4k ft redevelop.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Surface map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection.
Broad surface trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light
and variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile visibility this morning. Some convection
blowing up over the area turning over some of the air and helping
to block much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially
limiting the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models
not handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12
hours. Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented.
Front still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
significantly cooler temps with some relatively drier air
filtering in. Precipitation chances drop out of the forecast for
tonight and tomorrow. But it bears mentioning that todays pops
will be complicated by small perturbations that are not being
resolved well in the models. HRRR is closest with some
approximation of the line of showers and thunderstorms across
central ILX...and some reflection of the wave interacting with the
stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also trying to key in on
it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the HRRR, and the NAM
sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and interacting with
the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More eastward
progression with that disturbance may well change the outcome of
the mid day and afternoon thunderstorm chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 271546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Forecast generally looks on track today and main adjustment is
low cloud cover lingering longer than earlier expected se of I-55.
Skies should still become partly to mostly sunny across central
and evenually eastern IL during the afternoon. Will continue
small chances of showers and thunderstorms over eastern IL mainly
east of I-57 this afternoon. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
from the IL/IN border east across IN/KY/OH with moderate risk over
in the foothills of the Appalachians in eastern KY and southern OH.
Cold front was pushing se into far southeast IL near the Wabash
River late this morning with WNW winds increasing behind the front
over central IL and gusting 15-25 mph over IL river valley. Still
muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s se of IL river and upper 60s
nw of IL river. Dewpoints drop off into the upper 50s and lower
60s upstream near the IA/IL border and should advect se into
central IL during the afternoon. Southeast IL will still be muggy
today where dewpoints currently in mid 70s but should slip into
the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid
80s look on track today with return of more sunshine with some
upper 80s near Lawrenceville.


07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Cold frontal boundary pushing into central IL roughly aligned from
KSPI-KAAA-KBMI as of 1130Z. Along the boundary a combination of a
shower band and locally dense fog is noted in surface obs and
radar imagery. Another hour or two of IFR-VLIFR vsby/cigs in fog
possible before daytime heating raises ceilings. Isold tsra will
remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through this
afternoon causing isold mvfr vsby/cigs, but probabilities are too
low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover becoming sct-bkn030-050
after 14Z. After 00Z- 02Z...clearing skies expected. Light winds
becoming NW and increasing to 12-18G20-25 kts through 18Z. Winds
becoming less gusty after 00Z and gradually decreasing overnight.

Onton

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later  mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 271156
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later  mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Cold frontal boundary pushing into central IL roughly aligned from
KSPI-KAAA-KBMI as of 1130Z. Along the boundary a combination of a
shower band and locally dense fog is noted in surface obs and
radar imagery. Another hour or two of IFR-VLIFR vsby/cigs in fog
possible before daytime heating raises ceilings. Isold tsra will
remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through this
afternoon causing isold mvfr vsby/cigs, but probabilities are too
low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover becoming sct-bkn030-050
after 14Z. After 00Z- 02Z...clearing skies expected. Light winds
becoming NW and increasing to 12-18G20-25 kts through 18Z. Winds
becoming less gusty after 00Z and gradually decreasing overnight.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 271156
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later  mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Cold frontal boundary pushing into central IL roughly aligned from
KSPI-KAAA-KBMI as of 1130Z. Along the boundary a combination of a
shower band and locally dense fog is noted in surface obs and
radar imagery. Another hour or two of IFR-VLIFR vsby/cigs in fog
possible before daytime heating raises ceilings. Isold tsra will
remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through this
afternoon causing isold mvfr vsby/cigs, but probabilities are too
low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover becoming sct-bkn030-050
after 14Z. After 00Z- 02Z...clearing skies expected. Light winds
becoming NW and increasing to 12-18G20-25 kts through 18Z. Winds
becoming less gusty after 00Z and gradually decreasing overnight.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 270818
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later  mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 270818
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Sfc map a mess in the wake of yesterday evenings convection. Broad
sfc trof/frontal boundary hung up over the region with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog out there, with only a couple
sites dropping to a mile vis this morning. Some convection blowing
up over the area turning over some of the air and helping to block
much more of a vis drop in that area...and potentially limiting
the temp drop predawn. Even high res short term models not
handling the current conditions well, much less the next 12 hours.
Many mesoscale dynamics out there not being represented. Front
still not yet through the region...and first issue with the
forecast will be hanging on to pops, particularly in the east with
the frontal passage later  mid day and this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Keeping chances in for scattered showers and thunderstorms until
the front can progress through the area. Though today is expected
to get warm in front of the boundary...tomorrow is expected to see
signif cooler temps with some relatively drier air filtering in.
Precip chances drop out of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
But it bears mentioning that todays pops will be complicated by
small perturbations that are not being resolved well in the
models. HRRR is closest with some approximation of the line of
showers and thunder across central ILX...and some reflection of
the wave interacting with the stalled boundary out in KS. NAM also
trying to key in on it...though it dissolves rather quickly in the
HRRR, and the NAM sends it further eastward, diving sw of ILX and
interacting with the boundary later tonight well out of ILX. More
eastward progression with that disturbance may well change the
outcome of the mid day and afternoon ts chances.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Cooler air immediately behind the front begins to slowly warm back
up on Tuesday by a few degrees a day. Northwesterly flow dominates
and a deep low digging in a trof over the eastern half of the
CONUS. From mid week on, chances begin to increase with afternoon
instability showers under the deepening cyclonic flow aloft, with
a more stormy afternoon summer pattern. But will be very scattered
and low in coverage. Timing with the next wave diving into the
trof aloft bringing better chances...is lacking continuity in
models. End of the week have better chances for some rainfall...
but certainty and coverage will keep the chances low and diffuse.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 270457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Already made one update to remove the watch, but will need to make
another to try to better represent expected conditions overnight.
Cold front is still northwest of the area and will be moving
through the area overnight. Some models indicate that some
additional showers and storms could develop overnight as the cold
front interacts with the moist air over the area. With lots of the
airmass worked over from the evening storms, chances may not be
that high for additional pcpn, but it remains a possibility. Fog
will also develop as skies become clear and winds become light.
Some spots already seeing fog, so will making sure this is added
in grids as well. Update will be forthcoming in a while.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 270457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Already made one update to remove the watch, but will need to make
another to try to better represent expected conditions overnight.
Cold front is still northwest of the area and will be moving
through the area overnight. Some models indicate that some
additional showers and storms could develop overnight as the cold
front interacts with the moist air over the area. With lots of the
airmass worked over from the evening storms, chances may not be
that high for additional pcpn, but it remains a possibility. Fog
will also develop as skies become clear and winds become light.
Some spots already seeing fog, so will making sure this is added
in grids as well. Update will be forthcoming in a while.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Fog has developed in areas where there was rain this afternoon.
Some places have gotten as low as 1/4sm. MVFR cigs are developing
in the north and expect this to overspread PIA and BMI during the
overnight hours. The dense fog seems to have developed around SPI
and DEC, and unsure if it will get to CMI since CMI site did not
have a lot of rain. So have tried to forecast for LIFR or IFR
conditions at SPI and DEC overnight, with MVFR at PIA/BMI/CMI.
Then all sites will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with scattered
CU developing for the daytime hours. Skies should clear for
tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight and
then become northwesterly after the cold front moves through.
There is a slight chance that some showers will develop along the
front late tonight as it encounters the juicy air. But chances are
low and confidence is low, so will not have any mention in TAFs at
this time.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 270201
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Already made one update to remove the watch, but will need to make
another to try to better represent expected conditions overnight.
Cold front is still northwest of the area and will be moving
through the area overnight. Some models indicate that some
additional showers and storms could develop overnight as the cold
front interacts with the moist air over the area. With lots of the
airmass worked over from the evening storms, chances may not be
that high for additional pcpn, but it remains a possibility. Fog
will also develop as skies become clear and winds become light.
Some spots already seeing fog, so will making sure this is added
in grids as well. Update will be forthcoming in a while.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of storms pushing east of CMI early this evening with
mainly stratiform rains to its west. A mix of VFR with some MVFR
cigs in the wake of the rains over the remainder of the forecast
area this evening. Still have the cold front to our northwest and
that won`t be pushing thru until Sunday morning. May see some addl
development late tonight as the front approaches late tonight but
the latest short term models are not very aggressive with any
redevelopment. One other possible concern will be with the potential
for fog to develop across the northern TAF sites just ahead of the
front as winds drop off to nearly calm for a time after 05z. What
fog and stratus that does develop late tonight should be gone by
15z as drier air filters southeast into the area behind the cold
front late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Surface winds
will be light southwest tonight and then switch into the west and
then northwest behind the cold front in the 14z-16z time frame.
We should see some gusts up to 20-23 kts by Sunday afternoon out
of the northwest as the much drier air moves in.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 262349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of storms pushing east of CMI early this evening with
mainly stratiform rains to its west. A mix of VFR with some MVFR
cigs in the wake of the rains over the remainder of the forecast
area this evening. Still have the cold front to our northwest and
that won`t be pushing thru until Sunday morning. May see some addl
development late tonight as the front approaches late tonight but
the latest short term models are not very aggressive with any
redevelopment. One other possible concern will be with the potential
for fog to develop across the northern TAF sites just ahead of the
front as winds drop off to nearly calm for a time after 05z. What
fog and stratus that does develop late tonight should be gone by
15z as drier air filters southeast into the area behind the cold
front late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Surface winds
will be light southwest tonight and then switch into the west and
then northwest behind the cold front in the 14z-16z time frame.
We should see some gusts up to 20-23 kts by Sunday afternoon out
of the northwest as the much drier air moves in.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 262349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of storms pushing east of CMI early this evening with
mainly stratiform rains to its west. A mix of VFR with some MVFR
cigs in the wake of the rains over the remainder of the forecast
area this evening. Still have the cold front to our northwest and
that won`t be pushing thru until Sunday morning. May see some addl
development late tonight as the front approaches late tonight but
the latest short term models are not very aggressive with any
redevelopment. One other possible concern will be with the potential
for fog to develop across the northern TAF sites just ahead of the
front as winds drop off to nearly calm for a time after 05z. What
fog and stratus that does develop late tonight should be gone by
15z as drier air filters southeast into the area behind the cold
front late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Surface winds
will be light southwest tonight and then switch into the west and
then northwest behind the cold front in the 14z-16z time frame.
We should see some gusts up to 20-23 kts by Sunday afternoon out
of the northwest as the much drier air moves in.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 261857
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KILX 261857
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 261800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Update the forecast to include the mention of severe thunderstorms
possible late this afternoon sw counties and across area this evening.
SPC has moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across central IL except slight risk over Stark, Marshall
and northern Knox counties. Has 5% risk of tornadoes, 30% risk of
large hail (10% risk of 2 inch or larger hail) and 45% risk of
damaging wind gusts.

Also trended pops lower through early afternoon and higher late
this afternoon and evening. Most of central IL has been dry so far
this morning. Low clouds have spread into nw counties by late
morning and this may limit heating and instability. Kept highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking
from 95 to 103F, lowest north of Peoria where more low clouds found.

A frontal boundary over NW IL and near the IA/MO border will press
se into central IL later this afternoon and tonight and collide
with an increasingly unstable airmass with CAPES projects to
surpass 3000 j/kg and bulk shear rising to 40-50 kts by 00Z/7 pm.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg
CAPE as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and
climbing temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts
northward. Warm front expected to be northeast and east by midday
as the cold front and actual low center makes its way into the
region. As similar situations have set up over the fa recently,
trouble will be fighting the cap in place for much of the day...
and the approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only
the front itself but models have persisted with a couple waves
moving into the region. Major issues with this are beginning to
show their hand this morning as the locations of the waves this
morning on sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations
as many of the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for
storms, and the triggers are there, but timing and exact locations
of impact are troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the
early evening with the proximity of the cold front and the low
itself...but cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its
location should it not progress further north, storms crossing the
boundary could also be impacted by the turning of the winds for
the front. Once the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are
indicative of rapid development of storms. Once going, the very
high CAPE values remain in place well into the evening up to 06z.
Best directional shear is actually in place for the late
afternoon/early evening lending itself to supercells in the
beginning of the event...transitioning to more of a wind event
with time. Large hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells
and long sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than
15k ft. Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof
both outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 261800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Update the forecast to include the mention of severe thunderstorms
possible late this afternoon sw counties and across area this evening.
SPC has moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across central IL except slight risk over Stark, Marshall
and northern Knox counties. Has 5% risk of tornadoes, 30% risk of
large hail (10% risk of 2 inch or larger hail) and 45% risk of
damaging wind gusts.

Also trended pops lower through early afternoon and higher late
this afternoon and evening. Most of central IL has been dry so far
this morning. Low clouds have spread into nw counties by late
morning and this may limit heating and instability. Kept highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking
from 95 to 103F, lowest north of Peoria where more low clouds found.

A frontal boundary over NW IL and near the IA/MO border will press
se into central IL later this afternoon and tonight and collide
with an increasingly unstable airmass with CAPES projects to
surpass 3000 j/kg and bulk shear rising to 40-50 kts by 00Z/7 pm.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg
CAPE as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and
climbing temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts
northward. Warm front expected to be northeast and east by midday
as the cold front and actual low center makes its way into the
region. As similar situations have set up over the fa recently,
trouble will be fighting the cap in place for much of the day...
and the approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only
the front itself but models have persisted with a couple waves
moving into the region. Major issues with this are beginning to
show their hand this morning as the locations of the waves this
morning on sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations
as many of the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for
storms, and the triggers are there, but timing and exact locations
of impact are troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the
early evening with the proximity of the cold front and the low
itself...but cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its
location should it not progress further north, storms crossing the
boundary could also be impacted by the turning of the winds for
the front. Once the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are
indicative of rapid development of storms. Once going, the very
high CAPE values remain in place well into the evening up to 06z.
Best directional shear is actually in place for the late
afternoon/early evening lending itself to supercells in the
beginning of the event...transitioning to more of a wind event
with time. Large hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells
and long sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than
15k ft. Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof
both outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 261545
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Update the forecast to include the mention of severe thunderstorms
possible late this afternoon sw counties and across area this evening.
SPC has moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across central IL except slight risk over Stark, Marshall
and northern Knox counties. Has 5% risk of tornadoes, 30% risk of
large hail (10% risk of 2 inch or larger hail) and 45% risk of
damaging wind gusts.

Also trended pops lower through early afternoon and higher late
this afternoon and evening. Most of central IL has been dry so far
this morning. Low clouds have spread into nw counties by late
morning and this may limit heating and instability. Kept highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon heat indices peaking
from 95 to 103F, lowest north of Peoria where more low clouds found.

A frontal boundary over NW IL and near the IA/MO border will press
se into central IL later this afternoon and tonight and collide
with an increasingly unstable airmass with CAPES projects to
surpass 3000 j/kg and bulk shear rising to 40-50 kts by 00Z/7 pm.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Sky cover mainly sct-bkn080-100 across central and southeast IL
with isold tsra and associated MVFR ceilings mainly K1H2-KCMI
eastward to the IL/IN border. With warm frontal zone over the
region expected to move slowly northeastward...some clearing is
possible through early afternoon...then a cold front moving in
from the northwest in the late afternoon will bring
intensification of thunderstorm activity through evening.
Expecting SCT-NMRS TSRA for at least a period this evening.
Continuing TEMPO groups for TSRA and associated MVFR cigs/vsby targeted
at most likely time for thunderstorms at TAF sites in the 12Z
TAFS, and continuing VRB strong wind group consistent with the
main threat of thunderstorms. Will also keep VCTS in TAFs for much
of the forecast period, due to some uncertainty of timing. Winds
mainly S10-12 kts becoming lighter by evening as surface low
pressure center moves close by the area.

Onton
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE
as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and climbing
temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Warm
front expected to be northeast and east by midday as the cold
front and actual low center makes its way into the region. As
similar situations have set up over the fa recently, trouble will
be fighting the cap in place for much of the day... and the
approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only the front
itself but models have persisted with a couple waves moving into
the region. Major issues with this are beginning to show their
hand this morning as the locations of the waves this morning on
sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations as many of
the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for storms, and the
triggers are there, but timing and exact locations of impact are
troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the early evening
with the proximity of the cold front and the low itself...but
cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its location should
it not progress further north, storms crossing the boundary could
also be impacted by the turning of the winds for the front. Once
the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are indicative of rapid
development of storms. Once going, the very high CAPE values
remain in place well into the evening up to 06z. Best directional
shear is actually in place for the late afternoon/early evening
lending itself to supercells in the beginning of the
event...transitioning to more of a wind event with time. Large
hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells and long
sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than 15k ft.
Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof both
outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 261141
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE
as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and climbing
temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Warm
front expected to be northeast and east by midday as the cold
front and actual low center makes its way into the region. As
similar situations have set up over the fa recently, trouble will
be fighting the cap in place for much of the day... and the
approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only the front
itself but models have persisted with a couple waves moving into
the region. Major issues with this are beginning to show their
hand this morning as the locations of the waves this morning on
sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations as many of
the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for storms, and the
triggers are there, but timing and exact locations of impact are
troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the early evening
with the proximity of the cold front and the low itself...but
cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its location should
it not progress further north, storms crossing the boundary could
also be impacted by the turning of the winds for the front. Once
the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are indicative of rapid
development of storms. Once going, the very high CAPE values
remain in place well into the evening up to 06z. Best directional
shear is actually in place for the late afternoon/early evening
lending itself to supercells in the beginning of the
event...transitioning to more of a wind event with time. Large
hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells and long
sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than 15k ft.
Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof both
outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Sky cover mainly sct-bkn080-100 across central and southeast IL
with isold tsra and associated MVFR ceilings mainly K1H2-KCMI
eastward to the IL/IN border. With warm frontal zone over the
region expected to move slowly northeastward...some clearing is
possible through early afternoon...then a cold front moving in
from the northwest in the late afternoon will bring
intensification of thunderstorm activity through evening.
Expecting SCT-NMRS TSRA for at least a period this evening.
Continuing TEMPO groups for TSRA and associated MVFR cigs/vsby targeted
at most likely time for thunderstorms at TAF sites in the 12Z
TAFS, and continuing VRB strong wind group consistent with the
main threat of thunderstorms. Will also keep VCTS in TAFs for much
of the forecast period, due to some uncertainty of timing. Winds
mainly S10-12 kts becoming lighter by evening as surface low
pressure center moves close by the area.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KILX 261141
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
Unsettled weather anticipated today as low pressure and associated
fronts make their way through the Midwest. Plenty of fuel for
storms as hot and humid air pools over the region, but there is
much derision in the models as to initiation and timing and
location of waves to the west to move along the boundaries in the
region and trigger the storms/MCS that will bring the potential
for severe weather to Central Illinois. Warm front currently to
the southwest and expected to lift into the area today, leaving
ILX in the warm sector for much of the day. Depending on the speed
of the cold front expected this afternoon/evening will depend on
how much instability it taps into. Sfc dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s just on the other side of the Miss River Valley
this morning are expected to shift eastward with high temps
approaching 90F. Beyond stormy today and tonight... remainder of
the forecast cooler behind the boundary slowly modifying through
next week to more seasonable temperatures ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Plenty of instability for the area with a Moderate Risk in place
for just that reason. 18z forecast soundings showing 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE
as a reflection of the increasing moisture at the sfc and climbing
temps in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Warm
front expected to be northeast and east by midday as the cold
front and actual low center makes its way into the region. As
similar situations have set up over the fa recently, trouble will
be fighting the cap in place for much of the day... and the
approach of the front being enough to break it. Not only the front
itself but models have persisted with a couple waves moving into
the region. Major issues with this are beginning to show their
hand this morning as the locations of the waves this morning on
sat imagery are not initializing in the same locations as many of
the models. Bottom line is... plenty of fuel for storms, and the
triggers are there, but timing and exact locations of impact are
troublesome at best. Llvl helicity better in the early evening
with the proximity of the cold front and the low itself...but
cannot ignore the impact of the warm front and its location should
it not progress further north, storms crossing the boundary could
also be impacted by the turning of the winds for the front. Once
the cap breaks, the forecast soundings/CAPE are indicative of rapid
development of storms. Once going, the very high CAPE values
remain in place well into the evening up to 06z. Best directional
shear is actually in place for the late afternoon/early evening
lending itself to supercells in the beginning of the
event...transitioning to more of a wind event with time. Large
hail will also be a threat mostly with supercells and long
sustained updrafts as the freezing levels are more than 15k ft.
Some tornadic potential early with supercells and invof both
outflows and frontal boundaries.

LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday...
Event coming to a close from west to east on Sunday early...but
proximity to upper trof over the Great Lakes will keep an enhanced
threat for instability showers under cyclonic flow, esp Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temps in place for Monday in particular as 850mb
temps drop to closer to 10-12C. Moderating temperatures for the
week as northwesterly flow establishes itself in the region.
Majority of waves alluded to in the models remain north of here
and forecast remains mostly dry, though subtle shifts with those
waves could easily shift the forecast. Next major system impacting
the Midwest Thurs late into Saturday with an open wave aloft and
more cyclonic flow bringing threat for instability showers yet
again.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Sky cover mainly sct-bkn080-100 across central and southeast IL
with isold tsra and associated MVFR ceilings mainly K1H2-KCMI
eastward to the IL/IN border. With warm frontal zone over the
region expected to move slowly northeastward...some clearing is
possible through early afternoon...then a cold front moving in
from the northwest in the late afternoon will bring
intensification of thunderstorm activity through evening.
Expecting SCT-NMRS TSRA for at least a period this evening.
Continuing TEMPO groups for TSRA and associated MVFR cigs/vsby targeted
at most likely time for thunderstorms at TAF sites in the 12Z
TAFS, and continuing VRB strong wind group consistent with the
main threat of thunderstorms. Will also keep VCTS in TAFs for much
of the forecast period, due to some uncertainty of timing. Winds
mainly S10-12 kts becoming lighter by evening as surface low
pressure center moves close by the area.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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