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000
FXUS63 KILX 280457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Main surface front has settled south of the forecast area this
evening, and currently lies west/east across the southern tip of
Illinois. Still some convection in the vicinity of this boundary,
some of which is clipping our southeast Illinois counties, but
these showers/storms appear to be, and should continue, to exhibit
a strong diurnal component and fade with time. Attention turns to
an impulse ejecting northeast across the central Plains from the
strong upper low over the Rockies. This disturbance is expected to
help push the western extent of the surface boundary to our south
back northward, especially on Thursday.

Many of the latest forecast models have been trending drier
through the night, and this seems reasonable. Given the fading
diurnal instability, the fact that no significant surface boundary
and/or upper level disturbance will be moving through, and low
level jet forcing is apt to remain closer to the ejecting Plains
wave, do not expect much in the way of rainfall for the rest of
the night.

An earlier update tweaked PoPs down through the night, and plan to
make further downward adjustments. Otherwise, no significant
forecast changes appear necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quiet aviation weather conditions expected to prevail for the most
part across the central Illinois terminals. Weak high pressure has
built across the area, with the main frontal boundary stalled
across the southern tip of Illinois. A storm complex is getting
going across the central Plains and lifting to the northeast. While
this specific complex should miss the terminals, the disturbance
driving it will help lift the frontal boundary over southern
Illinois back to the north. This should eventually bring a risk of
thunderstorms back to the area by Thursday afternoon, but
confidence is too low to go above a VCTS mention at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 280457
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Main surface front has settled south of the forecast area this
evening, and currently lies west/east across the southern tip of
Illinois. Still some convection in the vicinity of this boundary,
some of which is clipping our southeast Illinois counties, but
these showers/storms appear to be, and should continue, to exhibit
a strong diurnal component and fade with time. Attention turns to
an impulse ejecting northeast across the central Plains from the
strong upper low over the Rockies. This disturbance is expected to
help push the western extent of the surface boundary to our south
back northward, especially on Thursday.

Many of the latest forecast models have been trending drier
through the night, and this seems reasonable. Given the fading
diurnal instability, the fact that no significant surface boundary
and/or upper level disturbance will be moving through, and low
level jet forcing is apt to remain closer to the ejecting Plains
wave, do not expect much in the way of rainfall for the rest of
the night.

An earlier update tweaked PoPs down through the night, and plan to
make further downward adjustments. Otherwise, no significant
forecast changes appear necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Quiet aviation weather conditions expected to prevail for the most
part across the central Illinois terminals. Weak high pressure has
built across the area, with the main frontal boundary stalled
across the southern tip of Illinois. A storm complex is getting
going across the central Plains and lifting to the northeast. While
this specific complex should miss the terminals, the disturbance
driving it will help lift the frontal boundary over southern
Illinois back to the north. This should eventually bring a risk of
thunderstorms back to the area by Thursday afternoon, but
confidence is too low to go above a VCTS mention at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 280206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
906 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Main surface front has settled south of the forecast area this
evening, and currently lies west/east across the southern tip of
Illinois. Still some convection in the vicinity of this boundary,
some of which is clipping our southeast Illinois counties, but
these showers/storms appear to be, and should continue, to exhibit
a strong diurnal component and fade with time. Attention turns to
an impulse ejecting northeast across the central Plains from the
strong upper low over the Rockies. This disturbance is expected to
help push the western extent of the surface boundary to our south
back northward, especially on Thursday.

Many of the latest forecast models have been trending drier
through the night, and this seems reasonable. Given the fading
diurnal instability, the fact that no significant surface boundary
and/or upper level disturbance will be moving through, and low
level jet forcing is apt to remain closer to the ejecting Plains
wave, do not expect much in the way of rainfall for the rest of
the night.

An earlier update tweaked PoPs down through the night, and plan to
make further downward adjustments. Otherwise, no significant
forecast changes appear necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The main convective activity should remain south and west of the
central Illinois terminals through the night and into Thursday,
closer to the main surface boundaries and/or better upper level
forcing. As such, expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of
the period. While some MVFR fog can`t be ruled out later tonight,
the convective debris clouds in the area from upstream storms
should keep the threat low, much as it was last night.

A disturbance from the plains will help push a surface boundary
back closer to the terminal area late Thursday morning into the
afternoon, which should increase shower/storm chances some.
However, confidence in the details is too low to go above a VCTS
mention at this time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 280206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
906 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Main surface front has settled south of the forecast area this
evening, and currently lies west/east across the southern tip of
Illinois. Still some convection in the vicinity of this boundary,
some of which is clipping our southeast Illinois counties, but
these showers/storms appear to be, and should continue, to exhibit
a strong diurnal component and fade with time. Attention turns to
an impulse ejecting northeast across the central Plains from the
strong upper low over the Rockies. This disturbance is expected to
help push the western extent of the surface boundary to our south
back northward, especially on Thursday.

Many of the latest forecast models have been trending drier
through the night, and this seems reasonable. Given the fading
diurnal instability, the fact that no significant surface boundary
and/or upper level disturbance will be moving through, and low
level jet forcing is apt to remain closer to the ejecting Plains
wave, do not expect much in the way of rainfall for the rest of
the night.

An earlier update tweaked PoPs down through the night, and plan to
make further downward adjustments. Otherwise, no significant
forecast changes appear necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The main convective activity should remain south and west of the
central Illinois terminals through the night and into Thursday,
closer to the main surface boundaries and/or better upper level
forcing. As such, expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of
the period. While some MVFR fog can`t be ruled out later tonight,
the convective debris clouds in the area from upstream storms
should keep the threat low, much as it was last night.

A disturbance from the plains will help push a surface boundary
back closer to the terminal area late Thursday morning into the
afternoon, which should increase shower/storm chances some.
However, confidence in the details is too low to go above a VCTS
mention at this time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 272356
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The main convective activity should remain south and west of the
central Illinois terminals through the night and into Thursday,
closer to the main surface boundaries and/or better upper level
forcing. As such, expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of
the period. While some MVFR fog can`t be ruled out later tonight,
the convective debris clouds in the area from upstream storms
should keep the threat low, much as it was last night.

A disturbance from the plains will help push a surface boundary
back closer to the terminal area late Thursday morning into the
afternoon, which should increase shower/storm chances some.
However, confidence in the details is too low to go above a VCTS
mention at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 272356
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerned that the front is initializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The main convective activity should remain south and west of the
central Illinois terminals through the night and into Thursday,
closer to the main surface boundaries and/or better upper level
forcing. As such, expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of
the period. While some MVFR fog can`t be ruled out later tonight,
the convective debris clouds in the area from upstream storms
should keep the threat low, much as it was last night.

A disturbance from the plains will help push a surface boundary
back closer to the terminal area late Thursday morning into the
afternoon, which should increase shower/storm chances some.
However, confidence in the details is too low to go above a VCTS
mention at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 272010
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerened that the front is intitializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some low clouds building in along a stationary boundary in the
region. BKN/OVC cirrus blow off from the convective complex to the
west. Showers and thunderstorm development still anticipated along the
boundary as well through this afternoon and evening. Not
consistent representation of the llvl moisture in the models.
Concern that the overnight will see the low clouds hang around in
the MVFR category and may well be updating the overnight portions
of the TAFs when new runs come in. Light flow throughout.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 272010
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface pattern is a little weak behind a now almost stationary
front over the central portions of the state. Warm weather and
humid conditions still in place and remnants of a decaying MCS
working into the forecast area with the front providing focus for
the system. One thunderstorm in the Jacksonville producing a lot of
lightning and heavy rainfall. Models have varying solutions for the
progression of the boundary through the region and forecast
collaboration is resulting in a drier forecast than prev.
Concerened that the front is intitializing too far south...but will
back off the pops for now.  Either way activity should recede
somewhat in the overnight hours as current convection is getting
more than a little support from diurnal heat.  Once the sun sets,
the convective element reduces enough to allow the cooler air to
help progress the boundary to the south.  The low then lifts just
west of the Miss River Valley and brings the boundary back northward
as a warm front again, returning the chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper level ridge will be over the area again, but not as steep
as early this week. On the surface, southerly winds will bring the
return of moisture and warmer temperatures for Friday. The
associated surface front will be well northwest of the area, which
will slowly move east and southeast into the area for Friday night
through the weekend. As the front gets into the area, the chance of
thunderstorms will become likely, first in the northwest on Friday
night, then the whole area on Saturday, and then likely in the east
Saturday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the weekend, but not as high as Fri
through Sat.

After the weekend system moves east, another system will be
approaching from the west and this will keep a chance of pcpn in
some portion of the CWA through the rest of the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This system should move out of the area by
Tue night, so Wed currently looks to be dry forecast. However, with
the flow being very zonal and multiple boundaries will be in and
around the area through the period, the timing of pcpn chances will
likely vary from day to day.

Temps will warm a tad for Fri and Sat, but not as warm as what they
have been earlier this week. Then normal temps are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. However, with pcpn on and off
through the period as well, humid/muggy conditions will likely
continue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some low clouds building in along a stationary boundary in the
region. BKN/OVC cirrus blow off from the convective complex to the
west. Showers and thunderstorm development still anticipated along the
boundary as well through this afternoon and evening. Not
consistent representation of the llvl moisture in the models.
Concern that the overnight will see the low clouds hang around in
the MVFR category and may well be updating the overnight portions
of the TAFs when new runs come in. Light flow throughout.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 271804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
Frontal boundary draped across the region is somewhat diffuse but
will continue to provide a focus for the scattered showers and
thunderstorm threat in the FA through the day. Going forecast
looking pretty good overall and no major updates necessary at this
time. Hot, humid, summer like weather with threat for showers and
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some low clouds building in along a stationary boundary in the
region. BKN/OVC cirrus blow off from the convective complex to the
west. Showers and thunderstorm development still anticipated along the
boundary as well through this afternoon and evening. Not
consistent representation of the llvl moisture in the models.
Concern that the overnight will see the low clouds hang around in
the MVFR category and may well be updating the overnight portions
of the TAFs when new runs come in. Light flow throughout.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 271804
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
Frontal boundary draped across the region is somewhat diffuse but
will continue to provide a focus for the scattered showers and
thunderstorm threat in the FA through the day. Going forecast
looking pretty good overall and no major updates necessary at this
time. Hot, humid, summer like weather with threat for showers and
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some low clouds building in along a stationary boundary in the
region. BKN/OVC cirrus blow off from the convective complex to the
west. Showers and thunderstorm development still anticipated along the
boundary as well through this afternoon and evening. Not
consistent representation of the llvl moisture in the models.
Concern that the overnight will see the low clouds hang around in
the MVFR category and may well be updating the overnight portions
of the TAFs when new runs come in. Light flow throughout.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
Frontal boundary draped across the region is somewhat diffuse but
will continue to provide a focus for the scattered showers and
thunderstorm threat in the FA through the day. Going forecast
looking pretty good overall and no major updates necessary at this
time. Hot, humid, summer like weather with threat for showers and
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The stalled out cold front from west to east across the area could
provide a focus for showers and storms today and tonight. However,
numerous mesoscale boundaries from scattered convection could also
become a focus for storm initiation as well. High res models and
even the low res models are relatively quiet in terms of storms
today and tonight. There is some indication that the complex of
storms moving across N Missouri could reach our western counties
by early afternoon, and push across SPI by 21z as it curves to the
SE. A VCTS was included in all TAFs for this afternoon to account
for the thunder potential, with a front in the area and a very
humid airmass. The KILX 12z sounding showed 1400 J/kg CAPE, which
will increase with heating today providing enough instability for
convection. Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible from any storm.
Winds will be variable early this morning closer to the front, for
SPI, DEC and CMI. In general, the terminal sites should see NE
winds today and tonight, with speeds less than 10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 271553
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
Frontal boundary draped across the region is somewhat diffuse but
will continue to provide a focus for the scattered showers and
thunderstorm threat in the FA through the day. Going forecast
looking pretty good overall and no major updates necessary at this
time. Hot, humid, summer like weather with threat for showers and
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The stalled out cold front from west to east across the area could
provide a focus for showers and storms today and tonight. However,
numerous mesoscale boundaries from scattered convection could also
become a focus for storm initiation as well. High res models and
even the low res models are relatively quiet in terms of storms
today and tonight. There is some indication that the complex of
storms moving across N Missouri could reach our western counties
by early afternoon, and push across SPI by 21z as it curves to the
SE. A VCTS was included in all TAFs for this afternoon to account
for the thunder potential, with a front in the area and a very
humid airmass. The KILX 12z sounding showed 1400 J/kg CAPE, which
will increase with heating today providing enough instability for
convection. Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible from any storm.
Winds will be variable early this morning closer to the front, for
SPI, DEC and CMI. In general, the terminal sites should see NE
winds today and tonight, with speeds less than 10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 271157
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
657 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The stalled out cold front from west to east across the area could
provide a focus for showers and storms today and tonight. However,
numerous mesoscale boundaries from scattered convection could also
become a focus for storm initiation as well. High res models and
even the low res models are relatively quiet in terms of storms
today and tonight. There is some indication that the complex of
storms moving across N Missouri could reach our western counties
by early afternoon, and push across SPI by 21z as it curves to the
SE. A VCTS was included in all TAFs for this afternoon to account
for the thunder potential, with a front in the area and a very
humid airmass. The KILX 12z sounding showed 1400 J/kg CAPE, which
will increase with heating today providing enough instability for
convection. Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible from any storm.
Winds will be variable early this morning closer to the front, for
SPI, DEC and CMI. In general, the terminal sites should see NE
winds today and tonight, with speeds less than 10kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 271157
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
657 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The stalled out cold front from west to east across the area could
provide a focus for showers and storms today and tonight. However,
numerous mesoscale boundaries from scattered convection could also
become a focus for storm initiation as well. High res models and
even the low res models are relatively quiet in terms of storms
today and tonight. There is some indication that the complex of
storms moving across N Missouri could reach our western counties
by early afternoon, and push across SPI by 21z as it curves to the
SE. A VCTS was included in all TAFs for this afternoon to account
for the thunder potential, with a front in the area and a very
humid airmass. The KILX 12z sounding showed 1400 J/kg CAPE, which
will increase with heating today providing enough instability for
convection. Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible from any storm.
Winds will be variable early this morning closer to the front, for
SPI, DEC and CMI. In general, the terminal sites should see NE
winds today and tonight, with speeds less than 10kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON









000
FXUS63 KILX 270820
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Still
looks like a brief period of MVFR fog is possible later tonight,
although the convective debris cloud in the area make this a
little less certain than it seemed earlier tonight. Precipitation
for the period is likely to be quite tricky. Feel the bulk of the
night should be dry, and much of Wednesday may be as well.
However, with a weak cold front slipping south through the area,
and/or the presence of outflow boundaries, and expected arrival of
a weak upper wave Wednesday, feel a mention of VCSH or VCTS if
warranted. Confidence in timing of any precipitation is too low to
go with a tempo or predominant period. If convection were to
impact a terminal directly, lower than VFR conditions are
possible. Winds through the period should be light/variable away
from any convection with weak boundaries in the vicinity.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 270820
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The location of the cold front is hard to discern tonight based on
very weak wind reports and minimal dew point gradient from north to
south across central IL. Isolated showers and storms have bubbled up
in our W counties over the last 2 hours, apparently associated with
a weak 500mb shortwave. Satellite images show several shortwaves
poised to flow over the upper ridge into Illinois over the next 24
hours. Coverage and timing of any showers/storms remains a
challenge. Will continue with slight chance and low chance PoPs
generally in a west to east oriented corridor in the approximate
vicinity of the stalled out frontal boundary. Localized heavy rain
and very gusty winds will remain possible from any storm, as
evidenced with last evenings storms that dropped 3" in an hour in
localized areas from southeast of Springfield to Decatur to Clinton.
Flooding will remain a concern from any storms.

Periodic sunshine between storms today should allow for highs to
climb into mid to upper 80s south of a line from Lincoln to
Champaign. Northern areas should see lower 80s, as they remain north
of the stationary/cold front. Dew points will climb into the upper
60s north and lower 70s south, so another muggy day is in store.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Surface high over the Great Lakes starts to drift eastward on
Thursday, as a storm system in the Plains lifts northeast. Most of
the models show some sort of precipitation along an area of lift
extending southeast into southern Illinois, with the main focus for
MCS`s and heavy rains from Iowa northeast to Wisconsin along the
main low level jet. Will keep the southeast half of the CWA dry
during the morning before increasing the PoP`s, while healthy
chances prevail northwest of I-55.

As the upper trough chugs toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, the
cold front with this storm system will slowly push eastward. Have
trended toward a period of slight chance or no PoP`s for Friday in
the wake of an MCS moving through the Great Lakes, before ramping
them back up Friday night ahead of the front and trough. Have
increased PoP`s to the likely category (around 60%) west of I-57
during the day Saturday, and east of there Saturday night, ahead of
the cold front.

Model guidance starts to widen on Sunday with the strength of a
shortwave trough pushing through the western U.S. The ECMWF digs the
trough a bit as it pushes into the central U.S., which would bring a
shot of cooler air for early next week. The GFS keeps mainly a
west-east trough across the lower states and the wave tracking more
along the Canadian border, with hot and humid weather once again.
Have showed a slow warming trend with the temperatures next week,
though not to the extent of the GFS. Precip-wise, rain chances
should end from west to east on Sunday with the passage of the
front, then increase them again from the northwest on Monday ahead
of the next front. Have not gone as robust as the ECMWF would
suggest for PoP`s, but will have healthy chances back in the
forecast Monday night and Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Still
looks like a brief period of MVFR fog is possible later tonight,
although the convective debris cloud in the area make this a
little less certain than it seemed earlier tonight. Precipitation
for the period is likely to be quite tricky. Feel the bulk of the
night should be dry, and much of Wednesday may be as well.
However, with a weak cold front slipping south through the area,
and/or the presence of outflow boundaries, and expected arrival of
a weak upper wave Wednesday, feel a mention of VCSH or VCTS if
warranted. Confidence in timing of any precipitation is too low to
go with a tempo or predominant period. If convection were to
impact a terminal directly, lower than VFR conditions are
possible. Winds through the period should be light/variable away
from any convection with weak boundaries in the vicinity.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 270451
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Band of strong/severe storms has been slowly trudging southward
along the frontal boundary roughly along the the I-72 corridor.
The models are generally handling this convection extremely
poorly, although the 21Z online HopWRF is doing a pretty decent
job, with the NamDNG5 also in the general vicinity. The HopWRF
shows a general push toward the I-70 corridor over the next couple
hours, and there is a lingering outflow that extends from near
Flora northwest toward Taylorville, so that could feed some
additional development. The front will not be moving too much
overnight, and the RAP and 18Z NAM show some redevelopment north
of it after 2-3am.

Have sent some updated grids/zones to significantly increase the
PoP`s this evening with this convection. Have not looked too
closely at the temperatures yet, so further updates may be needed
once that is evaluated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary is draped over the area this afternoon and this
could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorm development
this evening and into tonight. So will be keeping a chance pops in
the forecast for tonight, but mainly along and northeast of I-74. By
tomorrow, all models indicate a good chance of thunderstorms across
most of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Things will then shift
back to the west after that.

Temps and dew points are remaining high so will keep the heat
advisory and warning going through this evening. Temps will remain
warm through tomorrow, but with clouds and pcpn, advisory/warning
criteria for heat indices will not be met. Model guidance numbers
look to be too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper level ridging will be broken down, which will allow another
cold front to move into the area late in the week. Unfortunately
this means that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Most of the pcpn chances will remain to
the northwest or northern part of the CWA through Friday. Then when
the front drops into the area Friday afternoon, the chance of
thunderstorms will spread across the whole CWA for most of the
weekend. There could be a break in the pcpn over some of the area
Sunday night, but another frontal system will move into the region
for the beginning of next week...so chance pops continue.

Temps will cool through the period, but then warm back up during the
beginning of next week. Model guidance still looks to be too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Still
looks like a brief period of MVFR fog is possible later tonight,
although the convective debris cloud in the area make this a
little less certain than it seemed earlier tonight. Precipitation
for the period is likely to be quite tricky. Feel the bulk of the
night should be dry, and much of Wednesday may be as well.
However, with a weak cold front slipping south through the area,
and/or the presence of outflow boundaries, and expected arrival of
a weak upper wave Wednesday, feel a mention of VCSH or VCTS if
warranted. Confidence in timing of any precipitation is too low to
go with a tempo or predominant period. If convection were to
impact a terminal directly, lower than VFR conditions are
possible. Winds through the period should be light/variable away
from any convection with weak boundaries in the vicinity.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK








000
FXUS63 KILX 270451
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Band of strong/severe storms has been slowly trudging southward
along the frontal boundary roughly along the the I-72 corridor.
The models are generally handling this convection extremely
poorly, although the 21Z online HopWRF is doing a pretty decent
job, with the NamDNG5 also in the general vicinity. The HopWRF
shows a general push toward the I-70 corridor over the next couple
hours, and there is a lingering outflow that extends from near
Flora northwest toward Taylorville, so that could feed some
additional development. The front will not be moving too much
overnight, and the RAP and 18Z NAM show some redevelopment north
of it after 2-3am.

Have sent some updated grids/zones to significantly increase the
PoP`s this evening with this convection. Have not looked too
closely at the temperatures yet, so further updates may be needed
once that is evaluated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary is draped over the area this afternoon and this
could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorm development
this evening and into tonight. So will be keeping a chance pops in
the forecast for tonight, but mainly along and northeast of I-74. By
tomorrow, all models indicate a good chance of thunderstorms across
most of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Things will then shift
back to the west after that.

Temps and dew points are remaining high so will keep the heat
advisory and warning going through this evening. Temps will remain
warm through tomorrow, but with clouds and pcpn, advisory/warning
criteria for heat indices will not be met. Model guidance numbers
look to be too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper level ridging will be broken down, which will allow another
cold front to move into the area late in the week. Unfortunately
this means that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Most of the pcpn chances will remain to
the northwest or northern part of the CWA through Friday. Then when
the front drops into the area Friday afternoon, the chance of
thunderstorms will spread across the whole CWA for most of the
weekend. There could be a break in the pcpn over some of the area
Sunday night, but another frontal system will move into the region
for the beginning of next week...so chance pops continue.

Temps will cool through the period, but then warm back up during the
beginning of next week. Model guidance still looks to be too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Still
looks like a brief period of MVFR fog is possible later tonight,
although the convective debris cloud in the area make this a
little less certain than it seemed earlier tonight. Precipitation
for the period is likely to be quite tricky. Feel the bulk of the
night should be dry, and much of Wednesday may be as well.
However, with a weak cold front slipping south through the area,
and/or the presence of outflow boundaries, and expected arrival of
a weak upper wave Wednesday, feel a mention of VCSH or VCTS if
warranted. Confidence in timing of any precipitation is too low to
go with a tempo or predominant period. If convection were to
impact a terminal directly, lower than VFR conditions are
possible. Winds through the period should be light/variable away
from any convection with weak boundaries in the vicinity.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK







000
FXUS63 KILX 270148
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
848 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Band of strong/severe storms has been slowly trudging southward
along the frontal boundary roughly along the the I-72 corridor.
The models are generally handling this convection extremely
poorly, although the 21Z online HopWRF is doing a pretty decent
job, with the NamDNG5 also in the general vicinity. The HopWRF
shows a general push toward the I-70 corridor over the next couple
hours, and there is a lingering outflow that extends from near
Flora northwest toward Taylorville, so that could feed some
additional development. The front will not be moving too much
overnight, and the RAP and 18Z NAM show some redevelopment north
of it after 2-3am.

Have sent some updated grids/zones to significantly increase the
PoP`s this evening with this convection. Have not looked too
closely at the temperatures yet, so further updates may be needed
once that is evaluated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary is draped over the area this afternoon and this
could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorm development
this evening and into tonight. So will be keeping a chance pops in
the forecast for tonight, but mainly along and northeast of I-74. By
tomorrow, all models indicate a good chance of thunderstorms across
most of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Things will then shift
back to the west after that.

Temps and dew points are remaining high so will keep the heat
advisory and warning going through this evening. Temps will remain
warm through tomorrow, but with clouds and pcpn, advisory/warning
criteria for heat indices will not be met. Model guidance numbers
look to be too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper level ridging will be broken down, which will allow another
cold front to move into the area late in the week. Unfortunately
this means that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Most of the pcpn chances will remain to
the northwest or northern part of the CWA through Friday. Then when
the front drops into the area Friday afternoon, the chance of
thunderstorms will spread across the whole CWA for most of the
weekend. There could be a break in the pcpn over some of the area
Sunday night, but another frontal system will move into the region
for the beginning of next week...so chance pops continue.

Temps will cool through the period, but then warm back up during the
beginning of next week. Model guidance still looks to be too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast for this round of TAFs.
Main concern remains the front...which is still to the northwest.
Slight wind shift over the region right now due to outflow from
this mornings thunderstorms across the north. Front moving through
the region later tonight/this evening to stall and slow through
the early morning hours resulting in an extended period of
potential thunder, esp with wave moving out of the west. Models
with many solutions and potential of thunder. Concern for vis drop
just behind the boundary if clearing is ahead of the drier air. So
far, leaving that out of the forecast, but may need to be worked
into the next issuance.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS






000
FXUS63 KILX 262017
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary is drapped over the area this afternoon and this
could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorm development
this evening and into tonight. So will be keeping a chance pops in
the forecast for tonight, but mainly along and northeast of I-74. By
tomorrow, all models indicate a good chance of thunderstorms across
most of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Things will then shift
back to the west after that.

Temps and dewpoints are remaining high so will keep the heat
advisory and warning going through this evening. Temps will remain
warm through tomorrow, but with clouds and pcpn, advisory/warning
criteria for heat indices will not be met. Model guidance numbers
look to be too warm.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper level ridging will be broken down, which will allow another
cold front to move into the area late in the week. Unfortunately
this means that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Most of the pcpn chances will remain to
the northwest or northern part of the cwa through Friday. Then when
the front drops into the area Friday afternoon, the chance of
thunderstorms will spread across the whole cwa for most of the
weekend. There could be a break in the pcpn over some of the area
Sunday night, but another frontal system will move into the region
for the beginning of next week...so chance pops continue.

Temps will cool through the period, but then warm back up during the
beginning of next week. Model guidance still looks to be too warm.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast for this round of TAFs.
Main concern remains the front...which is still to the northwest.
Slight wind shift over the region right now due to outflow from
this mornings thunderstorms across the north. Front moving through
the region later tonight/this evening to stall and slow through
the early morning hours resulting in an extended period of
potential thunder, esp with wave moving out of the west. Models
with many solutions and potential of thunder. Concern for vis drop
just behind the boundary if clearing is ahead of the drier air. So
far, leaving that out of the forecast, but may need to be worked
into the next issuance.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 262017
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An outflow boundary is drapped over the area this afternoon and this
could be the focus for more showers and thunderstorm development
this evening and into tonight. So will be keeping a chance pops in
the forecast for tonight, but mainly along and northeast of I-74. By
tomorrow, all models indicate a good chance of thunderstorms across
most of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Things will then shift
back to the west after that.

Temps and dewpoints are remaining high so will keep the heat
advisory and warning going through this evening. Temps will remain
warm through tomorrow, but with clouds and pcpn, advisory/warning
criteria for heat indices will not be met. Model guidance numbers
look to be too warm.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper level ridging will be broken down, which will allow another
cold front to move into the area late in the week. Unfortunately
this means that the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Most of the pcpn chances will remain to
the northwest or northern part of the cwa through Friday. Then when
the front drops into the area Friday afternoon, the chance of
thunderstorms will spread across the whole cwa for most of the
weekend. There could be a break in the pcpn over some of the area
Sunday night, but another frontal system will move into the region
for the beginning of next week...so chance pops continue.

Temps will cool through the period, but then warm back up during the
beginning of next week. Model guidance still looks to be too warm.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast for this round of TAFs.
Main concern remains the front...which is still to the northwest.
Slight wind shift over the region right now due to outflow from
this mornings thunderstorms across the north. Front moving through
the region later tonight/this evening to stall and slow through
the early morning hours resulting in an extended period of
potential thunder, esp with wave moving out of the west. Models
with many solutions and potential of thunder. Concern for vis drop
just behind the boundary if clearing is ahead of the drier air. So
far, leaving that out of the forecast, but may need to be worked
into the next issuance.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 261745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Front still to the northwest this morning and a series of
thunderstorms across the northern tier of the state. So far, only
a few showers have been triggered into ILX. Potential for showers
and thunderstorms still in place for Central Illinois through
today, as heat and high dwpts increase the instability ahead of
the front.  Some minor updates to the hourly temperatures...but no
major updates at this time. Will likely be adjusting the forecast
into the afternoon as the front approaches...but at this point,
the updates will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast for this round of TAFs.
Main concern remains the front...which is still to the northwest.
Slight wind shift over the region right now due to outflow from
this mornings thunderstorms across the north. Front moving through
the region later tonight/this evening to stall and slow through
the early morning hours resulting in an extended period of
potential thunder, esp with wave moving out of the west. Models
with many solutions and potential of thunder. Concern for vis drop
just behind the boundary if clearing is ahead of the drier air. So
far, leaving that out of the forecast, but may need to be worked
into the next issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS







000
FXUS63 KILX 261745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Front still to the northwest this morning and a series of
thunderstorms across the northern tier of the state. So far, only
a few showers have been triggered into ILX. Potential for showers
and thunderstorms still in place for Central Illinois through
today, as heat and high dwpts increase the instability ahead of
the front.  Some minor updates to the hourly temperatures...but no
major updates at this time. Will likely be adjusting the forecast
into the afternoon as the front approaches...but at this point,
the updates will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast for this round of TAFs.
Main concern remains the front...which is still to the northwest.
Slight wind shift over the region right now due to outflow from
this mornings thunderstorms across the north. Front moving through
the region later tonight/this evening to stall and slow through
the early morning hours resulting in an extended period of
potential thunder, esp with wave moving out of the west. Models
with many solutions and potential of thunder. Concern for vis drop
just behind the boundary if clearing is ahead of the drier air. So
far, leaving that out of the forecast, but may need to be worked
into the next issuance.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS








000
FXUS63 KILX 261546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Front still to the northwest this morning and a series of
thunderstorms across the northern tier of the state. So far, only
a few showers have been triggered into ILX. Potential for showers
and thunderstorms still in place for Central Illinois through
today, as heat and high dwpts increase the instability ahead of
the front.  Some minor updates to the hourly temperatures...but no
major updates at this time. Will likely be adjusting the forecast
into the afternoon as the front approaches...but at this point,
the updates will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A cold front will progress into central IL this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected near the front, especially
this afternoon. PIA and BMI could see a few showers and possibly
storms after 15z this morning. The high res models have varying
solutions, with the RAP showing a line of convection across
central IL already at 12z this morning, which is not occurring.
The HRRR holds off storms until 16z near PIA/BMI, with additional
storms behind the cold front this afternoon.

The lower resolution NAM/GFS/Canadian/ECMWF have varying
precipitation patterns over the next 24 hours as well. Overall,
will stick with afternoon storms near the cold front at all TAF
sites. There is some agreement that after midnight tonight,
an MCV will roll out of Iowa into NC Illinois, triggering the next
round of storms. Those would affect PIA and BMI mainly, based on
the expected storm track.

Winds will start out south-southwest ahead of the cold front. By
afternoon, northerly winds will develop behind the front
progressively from PIA to BMI to CMI. The frontal motion will slow
down by this evening as it stalls out over SPI/DEC. Winds at those
sites could just become variable for much of the night.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 261546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
Front still to the northwest this morning and a series of
thunderstorms across the northern tier of the state. So far, only
a few showers have been triggered into ILX. Potential for showers
and thunderstorms still in place for Central Illinois through
today, as heat and high dwpts increase the instability ahead of
the front.  Some minor updates to the hourly temperatures...but no
major updates at this time. Will likely be adjusting the forecast
into the afternoon as the front approaches...but at this point,
the updates will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A cold front will progress into central IL this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected near the front, especially
this afternoon. PIA and BMI could see a few showers and possibly
storms after 15z this morning. The high res models have varying
solutions, with the RAP showing a line of convection across
central IL already at 12z this morning, which is not occurring.
The HRRR holds off storms until 16z near PIA/BMI, with additional
storms behind the cold front this afternoon.

The lower resolution NAM/GFS/Canadian/ECMWF have varying
precipitation patterns over the next 24 hours as well. Overall,
will stick with afternoon storms near the cold front at all TAF
sites. There is some agreement that after midnight tonight,
an MCV will roll out of Iowa into NC Illinois, triggering the next
round of storms. Those would affect PIA and BMI mainly, based on
the expected storm track.

Winds will start out south-southwest ahead of the cold front. By
afternoon, northerly winds will develop behind the front
progressively from PIA to BMI to CMI. The frontal motion will slow
down by this evening as it stalls out over SPI/DEC. Winds at those
sites could just become variable for much of the night.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 261155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A cold front will progress into central IL this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected near the front, especially
this afternoon. PIA and BMI could see a few showers and possibly
storms after 15z this morning. The high res models have varying
solutions, with the RAP showing a line of convection across
central IL already at 12z this morning, which is not occurring.
The HRRR holds off storms until 16z near PIA/BMI, with additional
storms behind the cold front this afternoon.

The lower resolution NAM/GFS/Canadian/ECMWF have varying
precipitation patterns over the next 24 hours as well. Overall,
will stick with afternoon storms near the cold front at all TAF
sites. There is some agreement that after midnight tonight,
an MCV will roll out of Iowa into NC Illinois, triggering the next
round of storms. Those would affect PIA and BMI mainly, based on
the expected storm track.

Winds will start out south-southwest ahead of the cold front. By
afternoon, northerly winds will develop behind the front
progressively from PIA to BMI to CMI. The frontal motion will slow
down by this evening as it stalls out over SPI/DEC. Winds at those
sites could just become variable for much of the night.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 261155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A cold front will progress into central IL this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected near the front, especially
this afternoon. PIA and BMI could see a few showers and possibly
storms after 15z this morning. The high res models have varying
solutions, with the RAP showing a line of convection across
central IL already at 12z this morning, which is not occurring.
The HRRR holds off storms until 16z near PIA/BMI, with additional
storms behind the cold front this afternoon.

The lower resolution NAM/GFS/Canadian/ECMWF have varying
precipitation patterns over the next 24 hours as well. Overall,
will stick with afternoon storms near the cold front at all TAF
sites. There is some agreement that after midnight tonight,
an MCV will roll out of Iowa into NC Illinois, triggering the next
round of storms. Those would affect PIA and BMI mainly, based on
the expected storm track.

Winds will start out south-southwest ahead of the cold front. By
afternoon, northerly winds will develop behind the front
progressively from PIA to BMI to CMI. The frontal motion will slow
down by this evening as it stalls out over SPI/DEC. Winds at those
sites could just become variable for much of the night.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 260814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Little change from previous discussion with the main concern
overnight being from lower vsbys due to fog and the threat
for more showers and storms, especially across the west and
northwest. Outflow boundary from this afternoon`s storms has
shifted well south of the forecast area this evening with an
east to southeast component to the surface winds thanks to a
meso-high that developed along the rear of the thunderstorm
complex. What affect this outflow boundary will have on our
fog chances is not clear as a few nights ago we saw the same
thing happen during the late afternoon/early evening hours
with very little in the way of fog due to somewhat lower dew
points brought in with the outflow boundary. However, with
the rain we received with the storms, the low levels of the
atmosphere are saturated so any decrease in wind speeds overnight
should lead to at least patchy fog, which should lift across the
area by 13z.

A cool front will then push across the area during the day Tuesday
bringing a switch in winds and the threat for additional showers
and storms, which may push into our west as early as the 12z-15z
time frame. Outside any lower vsbys in fog early in the morning, it
still appears we should see mainly VFR conditions during the day.
Surface winds will be turning more into the southeast and then south
overnight with speeds of less than 10kts. Winds should then become
light northerly during the morning across the west and over the
east in the afternoon with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH






000
FXUS63 KILX 260814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

One more hot and humid day is on tap for at least the southern half
of the KILX CWA, as heat index readings climb into the 105 to 110F
range during peak heating. The heat warning will continue from
Lincoln and south, with the heat advisory east to Champaign/Danville
through early evening.

Last evening some cooler air was pushed out from a line of storms
that clipped our north from Stark County to Champaign/Vermilion
counties and south along the Indiana border. That worked to lower
dew points across the north, which should help to keep the heat
indices a bit lower during the afternoon, but still hot in the
upper 90s.

Once again the high-res models are having a hard time with current
convection and are all over the board with respect to storm
development over the next 24 hours. When merged with the lower
resolution models, the general theme is for a line of storms to
eventually develop across our northern counties as a cold front
slowly moves south into our forecast area. A few storm cells
developing in eastern Iowa over the last hour has increased some
confidence that a few storms could affect our northwestern counties
by mid-morning, so will keep at least chance PoPs NW of Peoria this
morning. The daytime storms are projected to drift south as they
dissipate toward I-72 later this afternoon. The next complex of
storms is projected for later tonight, when a stronger MCS is
forecast to roll out of Iowa. Under that scenario, storms would
affect areas north of Peoria after 08z/2am CDT, where we have likely
PoPs.

There remains a high level of elevated instability, with plenty of
precipitable water, so any storms that can overcome the mid-level
warming could produce some very heavy rainfall and strong winds over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Labor Day)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper ridge will be breaking down on Wednesday as a wave moves
through the upper Great Lakes region. Still watching the deep trough
seen on water vapor imagery across the western U.S. this morning.
Last couple model runs had some reasonable agreement with tracking
this feature into the Plains by early Saturday, but have some
disagreements resolving the split flow over the central U.S. as a
trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF largely dampen out
the Plains wave, while the GFS keeps it somewhat intact and lifts it
into Wisconsin on Sunday, possibly due to some feedback issues. Have
leaned the holiday weekend forecast more toward the ECMWF as a
result.

In the nearer term, the 00Z models largely bring the front through
most of the forecast area by Wednesday evening, with the NAM
furthest north and the GEM/GFS furthest south. Best shower/storm
threat will be during the morning before the precipitation is
shunted into what`s left of the ridge. After that, focus shifts to
our northwest as the front lifts back northward in response to the
wave moving onto the Plains. Frequent MCS activity will lead to
potential flooding concerns across Iowa/Wisconsin, with mainly
scattered activity in our area from the remnants of said activity or
other development along the boundary.

Rather humid conditions expected to continue on Wednesday, until
drier air spreads in from a high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. However, the humidity will return on Thursday as the front
lifts back north. Temperatures across the southeast CWA may still
reach the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but highs in the 80s
will prevail through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Little change from previous discussion with the main concern
overnight being from lower vsbys due to fog and the threat
for more showers and storms, especially across the west and
northwest. Outflow boundary from this afternoon`s storms has
shifted well south of the forecast area this evening with an
east to southeast component to the surface winds thanks to a
meso-high that developed along the rear of the thunderstorm
complex. What affect this outflow boundary will have on our
fog chances is not clear as a few nights ago we saw the same
thing happen during the late afternoon/early evening hours
with very little in the way of fog due to somewhat lower dew
points brought in with the outflow boundary. However, with
the rain we received with the storms, the low levels of the
atmosphere are saturated so any decrease in wind speeds overnight
should lead to at least patchy fog, which should lift across the
area by 13z.

A cool front will then push across the area during the day Tuesday
bringing a switch in winds and the threat for additional showers
and storms, which may push into our west as early as the 12z-15z
time frame. Outside any lower vsbys in fog early in the morning, it
still appears we should see mainly VFR conditions during the day.
Surface winds will be turning more into the southeast and then south
overnight with speeds of less than 10kts. Winds should then become
light northerly during the morning across the west and over the
east in the afternoon with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ042-
047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH







000
FXUS63 KILX 260405
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Little change from previous discussion with the main concern
overnight being from lower vsbys due to fog and the threat
for more showers and storms, especially across the west and
northwest. Outflow boundary from this afternoon`s storms has
shifted well south of the forecast area this evening with an
east to southeast component to the surface winds thanks to a
meso-high that developed along the rear of the thundertorm
complex. What affect this outflow boundary will have on our
fog chances is not clear as a few nights ago we saw the same
thing happen during the late afternoon/early evening hours
with very little in the way of fog due to somewhat lower dew
points brought in with the outflow boundary. However, with
the rain we received with the storms, the low levels of the
atmosphere are saturated so any decrease in wind speeds overnight
should lead to at least patchy fog, which should lift across the
area by 13z.

A cool front will then push across the area during the day Tuesday
bringing a switch in winds and the threat for additional showers
and storms, which may push into our west as early as the 12z-15z
time frame. Outside any lower vsbys in fog early in the morning, it
still appears we should see mainly VFR conditions during the day.
Surface winds will be turning more into the southeast and then south
overnight with speeds of less than 10kts. Winds should then become
light northerly during the morning across the west and over the
east in the afternoon with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH







000
FXUS63 KILX 260405
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Little change from previous discussion with the main concern
overnight being from lower vsbys due to fog and the threat
for more showers and storms, especially across the west and
northwest. Outflow boundary from this afternoon`s storms has
shifted well south of the forecast area this evening with an
east to southeast component to the surface winds thanks to a
meso-high that developed along the rear of the thundertorm
complex. What affect this outflow boundary will have on our
fog chances is not clear as a few nights ago we saw the same
thing happen during the late afternoon/early evening hours
with very little in the way of fog due to somewhat lower dew
points brought in with the outflow boundary. However, with
the rain we received with the storms, the low levels of the
atmosphere are saturated so any decrease in wind speeds overnight
should lead to at least patchy fog, which should lift across the
area by 13z.

A cool front will then push across the area during the day Tuesday
bringing a switch in winds and the threat for additional showers
and storms, which may push into our west as early as the 12z-15z
time frame. Outside any lower vsbys in fog early in the morning, it
still appears we should see mainly VFR conditions during the day.
Surface winds will be turning more into the southeast and then south
overnight with speeds of less than 10kts. Winds should then become
light northerly during the morning across the west and over the
east in the afternoon with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH








000
FXUS63 KILX 260243
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Outflow boundary from this afternoon and early evening storms has
shifted into south central thru southeast Illinois. Cold pool
has brought some gusty east to northeast winds along and just
behind the outflow boundary with a marked decrease in temps
and dew points. Quick look at the latest Nam-Wrf model indicates
the cool front will be located from near Danville southwest thru
Quincy by mid-morning Tuesday. With winds shifting into the
north behind the boundary coupled with more cloud cover and
possible showers and thunderstorms, it appears the apparent
temperatures across the north and northeast will not meet heat
advisory criteria. As a result, will go ahead and cancel the
heat advisory for our far west, north and northeast counties with
only a small portion of the heat advisory remaining near and south
of Champaign. No changes were made to the Excessive Heat warning
at this time. Will have an updated NPW out highlighting the areas
that will be dropped and will update the ZFP once again this
evening.


&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH

CORRECTED THE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION ABOVE








000
FXUS63 KILX 260225
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
925 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Outflow boundary from this afternoon and early evening storms has
shifted into south central thru southeast Illinois. Cold pool
has brought some gusty east to northeast winds along and just
behind the outflow boundary with a marked decrease in temps
and dew points. Quick look at the latest Nam-Wrf model indicates
the cool front will be located from near Danville southwest thru
Quincy by mid-morning Tuesday. With winds shifting into the
north behind the boundary coupled with more cloud cover and
possible showers and thunderstorms, it appears the apparent
temperatures across the north and northeast will not meet heat
advisory criteria. As a result, will go ahead and cancel the
heat advisory for our far west, north and northeast counties with
only a small portion of the heat advisory remaining near and south
of Champaign. No changes were made to the Excessive Heat warning
at this time. Will have an updated NPW out highlighting the areas
that will be dropped and will update the ZFP once again this
evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH







000
FXUS63 KILX 260225
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
925 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Outflow boundary from this afternoon and early evening storms has
shifted into south central thru southeast Illinois. Cold pool
has brought some gusty east to northeast winds along and just
behind the outflow boundary with a marked decrease in temps
and dew points. Quick look at the latest Nam-Wrf model indicates
the cool front will be located from near Danville southwest thru
Quincy by mid-morning Tuesday. With winds shifting into the
north behind the boundary coupled with more cloud cover and
possible showers and thunderstorms, it appears the apparent
temperatures across the north and northeast will not meet heat
advisory criteria. As a result, will go ahead and cancel the
heat advisory for our far west, north and northeast counties with
only a small portion of the heat advisory remaining near and south
of Champaign. No changes were made to the Excessive Heat warning
at this time. Will have an updated NPW out highlighting the areas
that will be dropped and will update the ZFP once again this
evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH








000
FXUS63 KILX 260128
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
828 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Storms continue to slowly diminish early this evening and expect
that trend to continue over the next few hours as we lose daytime
heating and the storms track further south into the upper ridge.
Hi-res short term models providing mixed signals as to when
additional thunderstorms develop/move into our area late tonight
as a cold front edges slowly into western Illinois by morning.
Not very confident on any one solution at this point but it appears
the low level jet and 850 mb moisture convergence will be more
supportive of storms developing over Iowa late tonight and then
track into our west during the early morning hours. Series of
shortwaves expected to slowly break down the upper level ridge
and drag a frontal boundary south across our area early this
week, before the front heads back into our area late in the week
and into next week providing daily chances for showers and storms.
One more day of high heat and humidity levels on Tuesday before we
see a gradual downward trend in temps for the remainder of the week.

Zones have already been updated to reflect the cancellation of the
watch and timing trends with the showers and storms over east
central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH






000
FXUS63 KILX 252331
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
631 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH






000
FXUS63 KILX 252331
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
631 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Convection affecting areas from just east of Peoria to north of
Bloomington southeast towards Champaign. The cells have decreased
in intensity over the past hour and unless we have a merger/collision
with an outflow boundary or another cell, expect this gradual weakening
trend to continue. After the storms move out, the main threat overnight
looks to be with fog again with some low vsbys possible in the 09z-12z
time frame. A cold front currently out over central Iowa will drift
east and approach the region by Tuesday morning. Most of the short term
models suggest we may see an increasing threat for scattered showers
and storms with the front, especially across the northwest Tuesday
morning. Once we lose any fog or low cloudiness in the morning,
forecast soundings still suggest mainly VFR conditions into the
afternoon hours. Surface winds this evening near the storms will
be variable in direction but eventually most areas should see light
winds out of the southeast tonight and then switch into a northwest
direction in the morning across the north, and by afternoon in the
south. However, wind speeds will still be averaging less than 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KILX 252014
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Mostly sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today, as
convection remains along/north of the I-80 corridor. Latest
satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of the area, with
just FEW-SCT diurnal clouds developing near KBMI and KCMI. Cold
front currently analyzed across central Iowa will drop
southeastward tonight, eventually settling into north-central
Illinois by Tuesday morning. With boundary approaching, winds will
go light/variable, once again setting up the potential for fog
overnight. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support fog
development, so have included reduced visbys of 3 to 5 miles
between 08z and 14z. Am not expecting much in the way of
thunderstorm development through 18z, although have introduced a
mid-level cloud deck at KPIA as the front arrives late tonight
into Tuesday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES







000
FXUS63 KILX 252014
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Hot and very humid conditions are the rule across central Illinois
this afternoon, with 19z/2pm temperatures in the lower to middle 90s
across the board.  Further north, clusters of thunderstorms have
developed along outflow boundaries from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois.  This convection is generally tracking eastward,
with a slight southeastward drift.  High-res models are once again
handling the convection quite poorly, with the 2-hr HRRR forecast
completely missing the storms currently ongoing south of Chicago.
The Chicago storm complex will continue developing E/SE into
northwest Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Meanwhile, we will
have to keep an eye on additional storms just north of Moline.
These cells will likely track E/SE along an outflow boundary evident
on satellite/radar imagery and should remain just north of the KILX
CWA.  Have included a slight chance PoP along/northeast of a Henry
to Danville late this afternoon into the early evening in case they
develop a bit further southward.

A cold front currently analyzed across central Iowa will gradually
push eastward over the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching the northern
KILX CWA by Tuesday morning.  Many of the 12z models show little or
no convection with the boundary overnight, but have included low
chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line as
the front encounters a very moist airmass.  Aside from any scattered
convection that may develop, the potential for fog will once again
be an issue overnight.  Light/variable winds along with dewpoint
pooling along the boundary will favor fog, but increased mid/high
clouds may tend to mitigate it somewhat.  Based on an unchanged
airmass and persistence from the past several nights, have included
patchy fog in the forecast after midnight.

Any fog will dissipate early Tuesday morning, followed by partly to
mostly sunny conditions across the southern half of the CWA.
Further north in closer proximity to the nearly stationary frontal
boundary, mostly cloudy skies and scattered convection will keep
temps slightly cooler than they have been recently.  High temps on
Tuesday will range from the upper 80s north to the middle 90s
along/south of I-70.  Due to the slightly cooler temps, heat index
readings across the north may not reach advisory criteria.  May need
to drop the advisory for the Peoria area northward, as heat index
values will likely remain in the 95 to 100 degree range on Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A frontal boundary will become somewhat stationary over the area and
is forecast to remain there through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. This will become the focus for thunderstorms throughout
the period. Thunderstorms will not be continuous throughout the
period, but trying to time when the dry, or drier, periods is going
to be is the main forecast challenge. Due to the difficulty of
timing the precip periods and the dry periods during the medium and
long ranges of the forecast, best to just have chance pcpn through
the period over the whole area. Will have likely pops in the north
third of the CWA for Tue night, but remainder of the forecast will
just be chance across the area.

With the frontal boundary getting into the area, relatively cooler
air will advect into the area. Temperatures will gradually drop back
to around normal, which is middle to upper 80s, by the weekend.
However, with all the moisture forecasted over the area, muggy/humid
conditions will continue through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Mostly sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today, as
convection remains along/north of the I-80 corridor. Latest
satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of the area, with
just FEW-SCT diurnal clouds developing near KBMI and KCMI. Cold
front currently analyzed across central Iowa will drop
southeastward tonight, eventually settling into north-central
Illinois by Tuesday morning. With boundary approaching, winds will
go light/variable, once again setting up the potential for fog
overnight. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support fog
development, so have included reduced visbys of 3 to 5 miles
between 08z and 14z. Am not expecting much in the way of
thunderstorm development through 18z, although have introduced a
mid-level cloud deck at KPIA as the front arrives late tonight
into Tuesday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES








000
FXUS63 KILX 251748
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois this
morning, thanks to a strong upper-level ridge extending from New
England to the Southern Plains. Convection remains well to the
northwest along the periphery of the ridge from central/eastern
Iowa northeastward into the Great Lakes. This activity will remain
northwest of the KILX CWA throughout the day, with only some minor
cirrus blow-off possible across the northwest. This will do little
to impede the warming trend, as this is setting up to be the
hottest day of the entire summer. 14z/9am temperatures are already
in the lower to middle 80s, well on their way to afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the upper
70s, peak heat index readings will range from 105 to 115 this
afternoon. As a result, Heat Advisories/Warnings remain in place
for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Mostly sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today, as
convection remains along/north of the I-80 corridor. Latest
satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of the area, with
just FEW-SCT diurnal clouds developing near KBMI and KCMI. Cold
front currently analyzed across central Iowa will drop
southeastward tonight, eventually settling into north-central
Illinois by Tuesday morning. With boundary approaching, winds will
go light/variable, once again setting up the potential for fog
overnight. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support fog
development, so have included reduced visbys of 3 to 5 miles
between 08z and 14z. Am not expecting much in the way of
thunderstorm development through 18z, although have introduced a
mid-level cloud deck at KPIA as the front arrives late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES







000
FXUS63 KILX 251748
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois this
morning, thanks to a strong upper-level ridge extending from New
England to the Southern Plains. Convection remains well to the
northwest along the periphery of the ridge from central/eastern
Iowa northeastward into the Great Lakes. This activity will remain
northwest of the KILX CWA throughout the day, with only some minor
cirrus blow-off possible across the northwest. This will do little
to impede the warming trend, as this is setting up to be the
hottest day of the entire summer. 14z/9am temperatures are already
in the lower to middle 80s, well on their way to afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the upper
70s, peak heat index readings will range from 105 to 115 this
afternoon. As a result, Heat Advisories/Warnings remain in place
for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Mostly sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today, as
convection remains along/north of the I-80 corridor. Latest
satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of the area, with
just FEW-SCT diurnal clouds developing near KBMI and KCMI. Cold
front currently analyzed across central Iowa will drop
southeastward tonight, eventually settling into north-central
Illinois by Tuesday morning. With boundary approaching, winds will
go light/variable, once again setting up the potential for fog
overnight. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support fog
development, so have included reduced visbys of 3 to 5 miles
between 08z and 14z. Am not expecting much in the way of
thunderstorm development through 18z, although have introduced a
mid-level cloud deck at KPIA as the front arrives late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040-
041-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES








000
FXUS63 KILX 251443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois this
morning, thanks to a strong upper-level ridge extending from New
England to the Southern Plains. Convection remains well to the
northwest along the periphery of the ridge from central/eastern
Iowa northeastward into the Great Lakes. This activity will remain
northwest of the KILX CWA throughout the day, with only some minor
cirrus blow-off possible across the northwest. This will do little
to impede the warming trend, as this is setting up to be the
hottest day of the entire summer. 14z/9am temperatures are already
in the lower to middle 80s, well on their way to afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the upper
70s, peak heat index readings will range from 105 to 115 this
afternoon. As a result, Heat Advisories/Warnings remain in place
for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Some IFR fog will linger around BMI, PIA, and CMI through 14z,
with MVFR fog at SPI and DEC. Fog should lift to VFR by 15z. A
very hot airmass under subsidence from high pressure will keep
clouds mostly in check. The exception will be for PIA and BMI as
they will be the closest to clouds from a storm complex clipping NW
Illinois this morning. By afternoon, even those clouds should
generally dissipate after the storm complex weakens.

Storm chances will approach PIA after midnight tonight, as a cold
front drops southeast to near the Illinois River by 12z/7am.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, MVFR fog could develop at
PIA and the other terminals later tonight. CMI could see more IFR
fog, but we held off going that low with this TAF issuance.

Winds will start out S-SE, and become S-SW during the day remain
there overnight. Speeds should generally remain below 10kt over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-
043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 251443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois this
morning, thanks to a strong upper-level ridge extending from New
England to the Southern Plains. Convection remains well to the
northwest along the periphery of the ridge from central/eastern
Iowa northeastward into the Great Lakes. This activity will remain
northwest of the KILX CWA throughout the day, with only some minor
cirrus blow-off possible across the northwest. This will do little
to impede the warming trend, as this is setting up to be the
hottest day of the entire summer. 14z/9am temperatures are already
in the lower to middle 80s, well on their way to afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the upper
70s, peak heat index readings will range from 105 to 115 this
afternoon. As a result, Heat Advisories/Warnings remain in place
for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Some IFR fog will linger around BMI, PIA, and CMI through 14z,
with MVFR fog at SPI and DEC. Fog should lift to VFR by 15z. A
very hot airmass under subsidence from high pressure will keep
clouds mostly in check. The exception will be for PIA and BMI as
they will be the closest to clouds from a storm complex clipping NW
Illinois this morning. By afternoon, even those clouds should
generally dissipate after the storm complex weakens.

Storm chances will approach PIA after midnight tonight, as a cold
front drops southeast to near the Illinois River by 12z/7am.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, MVFR fog could develop at
PIA and the other terminals later tonight. CMI could see more IFR
fog, but we held off going that low with this TAF issuance.

Winds will start out S-SE, and become S-SW during the day remain
there overnight. Speeds should generally remain below 10kt over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-
043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 251152
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Some IFR fog will linger around BMI, PIA, and CMI through 14z,
with MVFR fog at SPI and DEC. Fog should lift to VFR by 15z. A
very hot airmass under subsidence from high pressure will keep
clouds mostly in check. The exception will be for PIA and BMI as
they will be the closest to clouds from a storm complex clipping NW
Illinois this morning. By afternoon, even those clouds should
generally dissipate after the storm complex weakens.

Storm chances will approach PIA after midnight tonight, as a cold
front drops southeast to near the Illinois River by 12z/7am.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, MVFR fog could develop at
PIA and the other terminals later tonight. CMI could see more IFR
fog, but we held off going that low with this TAF issuance.

Winds will start out S-SE, and become S-SW during the day remain
there overnight. Speeds should generally remain below 10kt over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-
037-038-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON








000
FXUS63 KILX 251152
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
652 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Some IFR fog will linger around BMI, PIA, and CMI through 14z,
with MVFR fog at SPI and DEC. Fog should lift to VFR by 15z. A
very hot airmass under subsidence from high pressure will keep
clouds mostly in check. The exception will be for PIA and BMI as
they will be the closest to clouds from a storm complex clipping NW
Illinois this morning. By afternoon, even those clouds should
generally dissipate after the storm complex weakens.

Storm chances will approach PIA after midnight tonight, as a cold
front drops southeast to near the Illinois River by 12z/7am.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, MVFR fog could develop at
PIA and the other terminals later tonight. CMI could see more IFR
fog, but we held off going that low with this TAF issuance.

Winds will start out S-SE, and become S-SW during the day remain
there overnight. Speeds should generally remain below 10kt over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-
037-038-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON







000
FXUS63 KILX 250818
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

The main forecast concern continues to be coverage of MVFR or
lower vsbys overnight in fog. Already seeing some patchy fog
east of I55 late this evening with CMI at 4SM with lower vsbys
well south and east of the TAF sites. Surface obs continue to
indicate winds above 5 kts at most locations along and west of
I55 which should keep any widespread low vsbys at a minimum.
Short Range Ensemble forecasts have indicated areas east of
I-55 have the higher probabilities for vsbys less than 3 miles
from 08z-12z so will continue to keep the lowest vsbys out east,
with higher range MVFR vsbys to the west.

Any fog should quickly lift by 14z with VFR conditions expected
for the remainder of the forecast period. We will have to watch an
area of showers and storms that will push across Iowa into Minnesota
and southwest Wisconsin which may turn more east and then southeast
into parts of northern IL during the morning hours of Monday. At
this time, it appears the better threat for convection Monday will
remain to our north as upper level ridging holds across the region.
Southeast winds of 3 to 7 kts will continue tonight and then shift
more into a south to southwest direction on Monday with speeds of
10 kts or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-
037-038-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH







000
FXUS63 KILX 250818
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

The main forecast concern continues to be coverage of MVFR or
lower vsbys overnight in fog. Already seeing some patchy fog
east of I55 late this evening with CMI at 4SM with lower vsbys
well south and east of the TAF sites. Surface obs continue to
indicate winds above 5 kts at most locations along and west of
I55 which should keep any widespread low vsbys at a minimum.
Short Range Ensemble forecasts have indicated areas east of
I-55 have the higher probabilities for vsbys less than 3 miles
from 08z-12z so will continue to keep the lowest vsbys out east,
with higher range MVFR vsbys to the west.

Any fog should quickly lift by 14z with VFR conditions expected
for the remainder of the forecast period. We will have to watch an
area of showers and storms that will push across Iowa into Minnesota
and southwest Wisconsin which may turn more east and then southeast
into parts of northern IL during the morning hours of Monday. At
this time, it appears the better threat for convection Monday will
remain to our north as upper level ridging holds across the region.
Southeast winds of 3 to 7 kts will continue tonight and then shift
more into a south to southwest direction on Monday with speeds of
10 kts or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-
037-038-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH






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