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000
FXUS63 KILX 231955
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Plenty of dry air in place over Illinois early this afternoon, on
the periphery of a high pressure ridge, with dew points in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. Across the southeast half of the forecast
area, clouds have been eroding as they move into the drier air. Area
of showers has been advancing eastward from Iowa. Looks impressive
on radar, but surface observations are showing cloud heights well
over 8000 feet in many cases, indicating not much in the way of
measurable rain is reaching the ground. However, this is enough
that a mention of isolated showers across the northern CWA this
evening is warranted.

The first forecast concern is with the timing of rain over the
next day or so, as this storm system pushes eastward. In the
longer term, the duration of the rain is a concern as we get set
in a rainy pattern for the first half of next week.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday:

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showing a deep trough
currently pushing east across the Rockies, and is progged to move
across the Mississippi Valley late Thursday. The dry air at the
lower levels will take some time to saturate, with the forecast
soundings still rather parched below 850 mb at mid afternoon. Have
limited Thursday morning PoP`s to areas west of I-55 and still
kept them below 50% during the afternoon east of I-57, otherwise
have maintained the categorical PoP`s over 80% in much of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Best instability looks to be
along and south of I-72 for any thunder, although some low CAPE`s
to around 200 J/kg progged as far north as Peoria, so have kept
some thunder mention that far north. With the system a bit slower,
will mention 80% or higher PoP`s into the evening across the east
half of the forecast area into the evening. Dry weather then on
tap for Friday.


LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday:

A cold front will push southward through the region Friday night.
Big question will be where it ends up, as it will likely not be
going anywhere for awhile. Most of the models do have it through
the forecast area by early Saturday, although the ECMWF and GEM
models linger it more toward the I-72 corridor. Saturday should be
dry. However, the main action will be later in the weekend, as all
the models continue to close off an upper low over the central
Rockies. This low will only slowly drift eastward, and will likely
linger in some form into the middle of next week.

Most of Sunday should be fairly decent, with the rain most likely
across the western CWA during the afternoon. After that, rain is
likely on and off, with PoP`s gradually diminishing Tuesday and
Wednesday as the cutoff low slowly weakens. By this point, as the
core of the colder air settles over the Midwest, temperatures will
be a good 15 or so degrees below normal, with highs Tuesday and
especially Wednesday generally in the 50s.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Dry air in place expected to keep the precip out to the west from
working into the TAF sites more than possibly a sprinkle this
afternoon, so keeping from mention at this point. However...will
drop from 10kft cigs to 5kft cigs with the moisture advection
overall by later this evening. VFR through the fcst, but the next
problem is expected tomorrow morning as the wave pushes some
precip towards the FA. Much of the precip is expected to hold off
until mid morning in the west...and a bit later in the east...but
models are not consistent with timing or coverage early.
Mentioning VCSH for the morning to start the trend...and next
issuance will likely see more of a mention and contemplate the
timing/potential for thunder.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KILX 231741
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Although high pressure is dominating the region this morning, a
brief upper disturbance has produced some rain west of the
Mississippi River Valley. ILX 12z sounding...as well as DVNs
sounding has a lot of dry air below 700mb for the rainfall to work
through before any impact to the ILX area. Most 12z runs of
operational models still very dry... but not picking up on current
activity either. RAPP/RUC reflecting current conditions and
bringing in some version of precip for the afternoon as the rain
to the west drifts and erodes. Considering the amount of dry air
is in place...not a lot of confidence in widespread rainfall...but
will adjust the forecast for some sct sprinkles this evening.
Will continue to monitor...but quick update out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Dry air in place expected to keep the precip out to the west from
working into the TAF sites more than possibly a sprinkle this
afternoon, so keeping from mention at this point. However...will
drop from 10kft cigs to 5kft cigs with the moisture advection
overall by later this evening. VFR through the fcst, but the next problem
is expected tomorrow morning as the wave pushes some precip
towards the FA. Much of the precip is expected to hold off until
mid morning in the west...and a bit later in the east...but models
are not consistent with timing or coverage early. Mentioning VCSH
for the morning to start the trend...and next issuance will likely
see more of a mention and contemplate the timing/potential for thunder.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

Will carry patchy frost over ne counties early this morning as
temps have cooled to 33F at Lacon and Bloomington while Danville
down to 34F. Temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s over rest of
central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL with Mount Carmel airport
at 50F. Band of cirrus clouds spreading se into central IL early
this morning should limit further cooling and think ne counties
will stay above freezing. Cool temps due to 1022 mb high pressure
over WI and ridging southward across IL.

High pressure ridge shifts east of IL today while warm air
advection regime sets up over IL through Thu morning with
increasing mid/high clouds. Isolated convection appears to stay north
and west of central IL today and most of tonight and just have
slight chances of showers over IL river valley overnight. Highs in
the low to mid 60s again today with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Low tonight in the mid to upper 40s.

Strong storm system over the central Rockies to eject surface low
pressure from CO ne into WI Thu evening and pull a cold front east
across IL later Thu afternoon and evening. A band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms likely along and ahead of cold front Thu
afternoon and in eastern IL Thu evening. SPC has 5% risk of severe
storms in far southeast IL while slight risk is south of IL where
better instability present. Highs Thu range from mid 60s to lower
70s with coolest readings nw over IL river valley.

Mild Pacific air over central and southeast IL with highs in the
low to mid 70s and return of more sunshine. A 2nd cold front drops
se across the region Fri night and could bring a few light rain
showers to mainly ne areas along with cooler temps across the
region by Sat. Highs Sat range from lower 60s from I-74 ne to the
upper 60s to around 70F in southeast IL. Dry conditions expected
to prevail from after midnight Thu night through Saturday with
next chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning
during Saturday night and Sunday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Extended models continue to advertise a blocky upper level pattern
across the country as a strong/large cutoff upper level low
deepens over the central plains by Sunday and slowly shifts east into
the mid MS river valley by Tue and remains near IL into the middle
of next week. Rather cloudy and unsettled weather pattern to occur
from Sun-Wed as temperatures gradually cool each day as upper
level low settles into the region. Have daily chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms with best chances from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Large upper level trof/cutoff low will be slow to exit
the eastern states later next week, so temps will also be slow to
modify over IL.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 231556
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1056 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Although high pressure is dominating the region this morning, a
brief upper disturbance has produced some rain west of the
Mississippi River Valley. ILX 12z sounding...as well as DVNs
sounding has a lot of dry air below 700mb for the rainfall to work
through before any impact to the ILX area. Most 12z runs of
operational models still very dry... but not picking up on current
activity either. RAPP/RUC reflecting current conditions and
bringing in some version of precip for the afternoon as the rain
to the west drifts and erodes. Considering the amount of dry air
is in place...not a lot of confidence in widespread rainfall...but
will adjust the forecast for some sct sprinkles this evening.
Will continue to monitor...but quick update out momentarily.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (thru
12z Thu). High pressure to our east will continue to push away
from our area today allowing an increase in mid and high level
clouds from the west. Based on current surface observations to
our west it appears the bases on the cigs will range from 8k-12k
feet late this morning into the evening hours. Forecast soundings
continue to suggest the air in the low levels will remain quite
dry but models indicate a weak wave pushing across the area later
this afternoon into the evening hours that may produce some light
showers or sprinkles. At this time, it appears coverage of any
precip will be too limited to include in TAFs for this forecast
cycle. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast today at 8
to 13 kts and then veer more into a southeast direction tonight at
10 to 15 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

Will carry patchy frost over ne counties early this morning as
temps have cooled to 33F at Lacon and Bloomington while Danville
down to 34F. Temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s over rest of
central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL with Mount Carmel airport
at 50F. Band of cirrus clouds spreading se into central IL early
this morning should limit further cooling and think ne counties
will stay above freezing. Cool temps due to 1022 mb high pressure
over WI and ridging southward across IL.

High pressure ridge shifts east of IL today while warm air
advection regime sets up over IL through Thu morning with
increasing mid/high clouds. Isolated convection appears to stay north
and west of central IL today and most of tonight and just have
slight chances of showers over IL river valley overnight. Highs in
the low to mid 60s again today with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Low tonight in the mid to upper 40s.

Strong storm system over the central Rockies to eject surface low
pressure from CO ne into WI Thu evening and pull a cold front east
across IL later Thu afternoon and evening. A band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms likely along and ahead of cold front Thu
afternoon and in eastern IL Thu evening. SPC has 5% risk of severe
storms in far southeast IL while slight risk is south of IL where
better instability present. Highs Thu range from mid 60s to lower
70s with coolest readings nw over IL river valley.

Mild Pacific air over central and southeast IL with highs in the
low to mid 70s and return of more sunshine. A 2nd cold front drops
se across the region Fri night and could bring a few light rain
showers to mainly ne areas along with cooler temps across the
region by Sat. Highs Sat range from lower 60s from I-74 ne to the
upper 60s to around 70F in southeast IL. Dry conditions expected
to prevail from after midnight Thu night through Saturday with
next chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning
during Saturday night and Sunday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Extended models continue to advertise a blocky upper level pattern
across the country as a strong/large cutoff upper level low
deepens over the central plains by Sunday and slowly shifts east into
the mid MS river valley by Tue and remains near IL into the middle
of next week. Rather cloudy and unsettled weather pattern to occur
from Sun-Wed as temperatures gradually cool each day as upper
level low settles into the region. Have daily chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms with best chances from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Large upper level trof/cutoff low will be slow to exit
the eastern states later next week, so temps will also be slow to
modify over IL.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 231145
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

Will carry patchy frost over ne counties early this morning as
temps have cooled to 33F at Lacon and Bloomington while Danville
down to 34F. Temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s over rest of
central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL with Mount Carmel airport
at 50F. Band of cirrus clouds spreading se into central IL early
this morning should limit further cooling and think ne counties
will stay above freezing. Cool temps due to 1022 mb high pressure
over WI and ridging southward across IL.

High pressure ridge shifts east of IL today while warm air
advection regime sets up over IL through Thu morning with
increasing mid/high clouds. Isolated convection appears to stay north
and west of central IL today and most of tonight and just have
slight chances of showers over IL river valley overnight. Highs in
the low to mid 60s again today with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Low tonight in the mid to upper 40s.

Strong storm system over the central Rockies to eject surface low
pressure from CO ne into WI Thu evening and pull a cold front east
across IL later Thu afternoon and evening. A band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms likely along and ahead of cold front Thu
afternoon and in eastern IL Thu evening. SPC has 5% risk of severe
storms in far southeast IL while slight risk is south of IL where
better instability present. Highs Thu range from mid 60s to lower
70s with coolest readings nw over IL river valley.

Mild Pacific air over central and southeast IL with highs in the
low to mid 70s and return of more sunshine. A 2nd cold front drops
se across the region Fri night and could bring a few light rain
showers to mainly ne areas along with cooler temps across the
region by Sat. Highs Sat range from lower 60s from I-74 ne to the
upper 60s to around 70F in southeast IL. Dry conditions expected
to prevail from after midnight Thu night through Saturday with
next chance of showers and iosolated thunderstorms returning
during Saturday night and Sunday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Extended models continue to advertise a blocky upper level pattern
across the country as a strong/large cutoff upper level low
deepens over the central plains by Sunday and slowly shifts east into
the mid MS river valley by Tue and remains near IL into the middle
of next week. Rather cloudy and unsettled weather pattern to occur
from Sun-Wed as temperatures gradually cool each day as upper
level low settles into the region. Have daily chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms with best chances from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Large upper level trof/cutoff low will be slow to exit
the eastern states later next week, so temps will also be slow to
modify over IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (thru
12z Thu). High pressure to our east will continue to push away
from our area today allowing an increase in mid and high level
clouds from the west. Based on current surface observations to
our west it appears the bases on the cigs will range from 8k-12k
feet late this morning into the evening hours. Forecast soundings
continue to suggest the air in the low levels will remain quite
dry but models indicate a weak wave pushing acorss the area later
this afternoon into the evening hours that may produce some light
showers or sprinkles. At this time, it appears coverage of any
precip will be too limited to include in TAFs for this forecast
cycle. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast today at 8
to 13 kts and then veer more into a southeast direction tonight at
10 to 15 kts.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 230832
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday

Will carry patchy frost over ne counties early this morning as
temps have cooled to 33F at Lacon and Bloomington while Danville
down to 34F. Temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s over rest of
central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL with Mount Carmel airport
at 50F. Band of cirrus clouds spreading se into central IL early
this morning should limit further cooling and think ne counties
will stay above freezing. Cool temps due to 1022 mb high pressure
over WI and ridging southward across IL.

High pressure ridge shifts east of IL today while warm air
advection regime sets up over IL through Thu morning with
increasing mid/high clouds. Isolated convection appears to stay north
and west of central IL today and most of tonight and just have
slight chances of showers over IL river valley overnight. Highs in
the low to mid 60s again today with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Low tonight in the mid to upper 40s.

Strong storm system over the central Rockies to eject surface low
pressure from CO ne into WI Thu evening and pull a cold front east
across IL later Thu afternoon and evening. A band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms likely along and ahead of cold front Thu
afternoon and in eastern IL Thu evening. SPC has 5% risk of severe
storms in far southeast IL while slight risk is south of IL where
better instability present. Highs Thu range from mid 60s to lower
70s with coolest readings nw over IL river valley.

Mild Pacific air over central and southeast IL with highs in the
low to mid 70s and return of more sunshine. A 2nd cold front drops
se across the region Fri night and could bring a few light rain
showers to mainly ne areas along with cooler temps across the
region by Sat. Highs Sat range from lower 60s from I-74 ne to the
upper 60s to around 70F in southeast IL. Dry conditions expected
to prevail from after midnight Thu night through Saturday with
next chance of showers and iosolated thunderstorms returning
during Saturday night and Sunday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Extended models continue to advertise a blocky upper level pattern
across the country as a strong/large cutoff upper level low
deepens over the central plains by Sunday and slowly shifts east into
the mid MS river valley by Tue and remains near IL into the middle
of next week. Rather cloudy and unsettled weather pattern to occur
from Sun-Wed as temperatures gradually cool each day as upper
level low settles into the region. Have daily chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms with best chances from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Large upper level trof/cutoff low will be slow to exit
the eastern states later next week, so temps will also be slow to
modify over IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The surface high will keep skies mostly clear through Wed morning
with some cirrus the only clouds of note. By mid-day, increasing
mid clouds will begin to overspread PIA and SPI as warm advection
clouds progress into NW IL. Guidance is showing potential for a
few rain showers for PIA between 18z/1pm and 00z/7pm. Forecast
soundings show plenty of dry air below the cloud bases to preclude
measurable rain from occurring. A few sprinkles may reach the
ground toward 00z, but we kept vcsh out of the TAFs for now.

Winds will be light north or variable the rest of the night under
the surface ridge axis. Wind direction will become east-southeast
by mid-day on Wed, and remain that direction as low pressure
develops in the Plains through Wed evening.

Shimon

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 230447
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Quiet weather is expected the rest of the night as high pressure
has progressed far enough into Illinois to create much lighter
winds and clear skies.

Dewpoints have dipped into the mid 20s from Peoria to Bloomington.
They should rebound upward later tonight as higher upstream
dewpoints advect into the area. The higher moisture levels should
help to keep our lows from dipping too close to freezing. Frost
could develop if air temps dip into the mid 30s. Our coldest lows
look to be in the northeast, where the lower dewpoints and light
winds will linger the longest. Low temps may reach 36-37F, so we will
continue to leave out any mention of patchy frost with the evening
update.

Overall, the forecast grids are on track with expected trends, and
no formal update will be needed this evening.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The surface high will keep skies mostly clear through Wed morning
with some cirrus the only clouds of note. By mid-day, increasing
mid clouds will begin to overspread PIA and SPI as warm advection
clouds progress into NW IL. Guidance is showing potential for a
few rain showers for PIA between 18z/1pm and 00z/7pm. Forecast
soundings show plenty of dry air below the cloud bases to preclude
measurable rain from occurring. A few sprinkles may reach the
ground toward 00z, but we kept vcsh out of the TAFs for now.

Winds will be light north or variable the rest of the night under
the surface ridge axis. Wind direction will become east-southeast
by mid-day on Wed, and remain that direction as low pressure
develops in the Plains through Wed evening.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Breezy conditions persist across central and southeast Illinois
this afternoon between yesterday`s departing cold front and an
approaching ridge of high pressure. The ridge will continue to
dominate the weather for Wednesday, keeping quiet conditions in
place. The next storm system is still on track for Thursday, with
an associated risk of showers/thunderstorms. The precipitation
threat for the end of the weekend into early next week remains
murky as a slow moving system, part of a developing Rex block,
moves through our vicinity. Main forecast problems today remain
trying to pin point precipitation chances/timing with these two
systems.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday:

The ridge of high pressure to our west will push into the forecast
area overnight. The main concern with the arrival of the ridge is
if temperatures will fall enough to pose a threat of frost. At
this point, forecast lows are only marginal for frost in most
areas. Also, winds appear as though they may stay up enough to
mitigate the frost threat. If winds die off quickly this evening,
the frost threat will need to be looked at more closely.

Return flow on the back side of the ridge increases on Wednesday,
with a warm frontal zone setting up to the east of a developing
storm system in the plains. Many model solutions persist in trying
to produce some precipitation in this warm advection regime,
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area. Still feel there is likely to be too much dry
air to overcome initially and that models are a little too
bullish. With this thinking in mind, plan to keep forecast dry
until overnight Wednesday night when some precipitation may begin
to slip in ahead of Thursday`s system.

Showers/storms still expected to spread from west to east on
Thursday as storm system crosses the forecast area. Severe threat
expected to be low overall due to low instability (CAPE values
below 1000 j/kg for the most part), and modest shear profiles
(bulk shear values no better than 35-40 kts). Drier conditions
quickly filter in behind the cold front associated with the system
overnight Thursday into Friday, although the post frontal airmass
is not especially cool.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday:

Attention turns to the Rex block expected to develop during the
period as we head into the extended range of the forecast. The
ECMWF has been the most aggressive by far with the return of
precipitation chances over the weekend, but it has backed off a
bit in its 12Z run. In any event, once the upper low with the Rex
block is in the vicinity, period of showers and some thunderstorms
are likely for at least a few days. However, due to the model
spread, run-to-run inconsistency, and intra-model ensemble spread,
confidence remains quite low in the details. Unfortunately, this
results in several periods of chance PoPs, starting Saturday
night. Hopefully, a clear consensus with the ultimate forecast
solution will emerge soon. However, considering the trouble models
have entering (and leaving) blocky patterns, we may be waiting a
while.

BAK


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 230206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Quiet weather is expected the rest of the night as high pressure
has progressed far enough into Illinois to create much lighter
winds and clear skies.

Dewpoints have dipped into the mid 20s from Peoria to Bloomington.
They should rebound upward later tonight as higher upstream
dewpoints advect into the area. The higher moisture levels should
help to keep our lows from dipping too close to freezing. Frost
could develop if air temps dip into the mid 30s. Our coldest lows
look to be in the northeast, where the lower dewpoints and light
winds will linger the longest. Low temps may reach 36-37F, so we will
continue to leave out any mention of patchy frost with the evening
update.

Overall, the forecast grids are on track with expected trends, and
no formal update will be needed this evening.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

High pressure at the surface will advance into IL tonight,
bringing dry air and mostly clear skies. Some thin cirrus will
progress over the top of the ridge in the northern horizon, but
little to no mid to low clouds are expected over the next 24
hours. Gust NW winds to 18-20kt will diminish with sunset. Winds
will also diminish in response to a weakening pressure gradient as the
surface ridge axis approaches from the west.

Winds will shift to the southeast Wed morning as the surface high
passes to the east and return flow develops.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Breezy conditions persist across central and southeast Illinois
this afternoon between yesterday`s departing cold front and an
approaching ridge of high pressure. The ridge will continue to
dominate the weather for Wednesday, keeping quiet conditions in
place. The next storm system is still on track for Thursday, with
an associated risk of showers/thunderstorms. The precipitation
threat for the end of the weekend into early next week remains
murky as a slow moving system, part of a developing Rex block,
moves through our vicinity. Main forecast problems today remain
trying to pin point precipitation chances/timing with these two
systems.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday:

The ridge of high pressure to our west will push into the forecast
area overnight. The main concern with the arrival of the ridge is
if temperatures will fall enough to pose a threat of frost. At
this point, forecast lows are only marginal for frost in most
areas. Also, winds appear as though they may stay up enough to
mitigate the frost threat. If winds die off quickly this evening,
the frost threat will need to be looked at more closely.

Return flow on the back side of the ridge increases on Wednesday,
with a warm frontal zone setting up to the east of a developing
storm system in the plains. Many model solutions persist in trying
to produce some precipitation in this warm advection regime,
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area. Still feel there is likely to be too much dry
air to overcome initially and that models are a little too
bullish. With this thinking in mind, plan to keep forecast dry
until overnight Wednesday night when some precipitation may begin
to slip in ahead of Thursday`s system.

Showers/storms still expected to spread from west to east on
Thursday as storm system crosses the forecast area. Severe threat
expected to be low overall due to low instability (CAPE values
below 1000 j/kg for the most part), and modest shear profiles
(bulk shear values no better than 35-40 kts). Drier conditions
quickly filter in behind the cold front associated with the system
overnight Thursday into Friday, although the post frontal airmass
is not especially cool.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday:

Attention turns to the Rex block expected to develop during the
period as we head into the extended range of the forecast. The
ECMWF has been the most aggressive by far with the return of
precipitation chances over the weekend, but it has backed off a
bit in its 12Z run. In any event, once the upper low with the Rex
block is in the vicinity, period of showers and some thunderstorms
are likely for at least a few days. However, due to the model
spread, run-to-run inconsistency, and intra-model ensemble spread,
confidence remains quite low in the details. Unfortunately, this
results in several periods of chance PoPs, starting Saturday
night. Hopefully, a clear consensus with the ultimate forecast
solution will emerge soon. However, considering the trouble models
have entering (and leaving) blocky patterns, we may be waiting a
while.

BAK

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 222359
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
659 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Breezy conditions persist across central and southeast Illinois
this afternoon between yesterday`s departing cold front and an
approaching ridge of high pressure. The ridge will continue to
dominate the weather for Wednesday, keeping quiet conditions in
place. The next storm system is still on track for Thursday, with
an associated risk of showers/thunderstorms. The precipitation
threat for the end of the weekend into early next week remains
murky as a slow moving system, part of a developing Rex block,
moves through our vicinity. Main forecast problems today remain
trying to pin point precipitation chances/timing with these two
systems.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday:

The ridge of high pressure to our west will push into the forecast
area overnight. The main concern with the arrival of the ridge is
if temperatures will fall enough to pose a threat of frost. At
this point, forecast lows are only marginal for frost in most
areas. Also, winds appear as though they may stay up enough to
mitigate the frost threat. If winds die off quickly this evening,
the frost threat will need to be looked at more closely.

Return flow on the back side of the ridge increases on Wednesday,
with a warm frontal zone setting up to the east of a developing
storm system in the plains. Many model solutions persist in trying
to produce some precipitation in this warm advection regime,
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area. Still feel there is likely to be too much dry
air to overcome initially and that models are a little too
bullish. With this thinking in mind, plan to keep forecast dry
until overnight Wednesday night when some precipitation may begin
to slip in ahead of Thursday`s system.

Showers/storms still expected to spread from west to east on
Thursday as storm system crosses the forecast area. Severe threat
expected to be low overall due to low instability (CAPE values
below 1000 j/kg for the most part), and modest shear profiles
(bulk shear values no better than 35-40 kts). Drier conditions
quickly filter in behind the cold front associated with the system
overnight Thursday into Friday, although the post frontal airmass
is not especially cool.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday:

Attention turns to the Rex block expected to develop during the
period as we head into the extended range of the forecast. The
ECMWF has been the most aggressive by far with the return of
precipitation chances over the weekend, but it has backed off a
bit in its 12Z run. In any event, once the upper low with the Rex
block is in the vicinity, period of showers and some thunderstorms
are likely for at least a few days. However, due to the model
spread, run-to-run inconsistency, and intra-model ensemble spread,
confidence remains quite low in the details. Unfortunately, this
results in several periods of chance PoPs, starting Saturday
night. Hopefully, a clear consensus with the ultimate forecast
solution will emerge soon. However, considering the trouble models
have entering (and leaving) blocky patterns, we may be waiting a
while.

BAK

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

High pressure at the surface will advance into IL tonight,
bringing dry air and mostly clear skies. Some thin cirrus will
progress over the top of the ridge in the northern horizon, but
little to no mid to low clouds are expected over the next 24
hours. Gust NW winds to 18-20kt will diminish with sunset. Winds
will also diminish in response to a weakening pressure gradient as the
surface ridge axis approaches from the west.

Winds will shift to the southeast Wed morning as the surface high
passes to the east and return flow develops.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 222000
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Breezy conditions persist across central and southeast Illinois
this afternoon between yesterday`s departing cold front and an
approaching ridge of high pressure. The ridge will continue to
dominate the weather for Wednesday, keeping quiet conditions in
place. The next storm system is still on track for Thursday, with
an associated risk of showers/thunderstorms. The precipitation
threat for the end of the weekend into early next week remains
murky as a slow moving system, part of a developing Rex block,
moves through our vicinity. Main forecast problems today remain
trying to pin point precipitation chances/timing with these two
systems.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday:

The ridge of high pressure to our west will push into the forecast
area overnight. The main concern with the arrival of the ridge is
if temperatures will fall enough to pose a threat of frost. At
this point, forecast lows are only marginal for frost in most
areas. Also, winds appear as though they may stay up enough to
mitigate the frost threat. If winds die off quickly this evening,
the frost threat will need to be looked at more closely.

Return flow on the back side of the ridge increases on Wednesday,
with a warm frontal zone setting up to the east of a developing
storm system in the plains. Many model solutions persist in trying
to produce some precipitation in this warm advection regime,
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area. Still feel there is likely to be too much dry
air to overcome initially and that models are a little too
bullish. With this thinking in mind, plan to keep forecast dry
until overnight Wednesday night when some precipitation may begin
to slip in ahead of Thursday`s system.

Showers/storms still expected to spread from west to east on
Thursday as storm system crosses the forecast area. Severe threat
expected to be low overall due to low instability (CAPE values
below 1000 j/kg for the most part), and modest shear profiles
(bulk shear values no better than 35-40 kts). Drier conditions
quickly filter in behind the cold front associated with the system
overnight Thursday into Friday, although the post frontal airmass
is not especially cool.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday:

Attention turns to the Rex block expected to develop during the
period as we head into the extended range of the forecast. The
ECMWF has been the most aggressive by far with the return of
precipitation chances over the weekend, but it has backed off a
bit in its 12Z run. In any event, once the upper low with the Rex
block is in the vicinity, period of showers and some thunderstorms
are likely for at least a few days. However, due to the model
spread, run-to-run inconsistency, and intra-model ensemble spread,
confidence remains quite low in the details. Unfortunately, this
results in several periods of chance PoPs, starting Saturday
night. Hopefully, a clear consensus with the ultimate forecast
solution will emerge soon. However, considering the trouble models
have entering (and leaving) blocky patterns, we may be waiting a
while.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
High pressure dominating the forecast. SKC and breezy northerly
winds with gusts 20-24kts today. Will slowly see the gusts dwindle
after sunset and the winds decouple again. High level moisture
will stream some cirrus into the region and winds will become more
east/northeasterly later tonight, and lighter under the ridge as
the high shifts east. Though model time heights indicate some
moisture working into 850-700mb layer...clouds not in guidance...high
pressure still in place...and will avoid any additional mention
at this time.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221731
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds
dominate. Winds slightly faster just off the sfc and a decent
pressure gradient... so will likely see some breezy conditions and
gusts to 25mph today. Sunny skies will dominate but temperatures
are far more seasonable with the cooler airmass in place. Forecast
is doing well and no updates are anticipated at this time.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
High pressure dominating the forecast. SKC and breezy northerly
winds with gusts 20-24kts today. Will slowly see the gusts dwindle
after sunset and the winds decouple again. High level moisture
will stream some cirrus into the region and winds will become more
east/northeasterly later tonight, and lighter under the ridge as
the high shifts east. Though model time heights indicate some
moisture working into 850-700mb layer...clouds not in guidance...high
pressure still in place...and will avoid any additional mention
at this time.


HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Early morning surface map shows cold front pushing into far
southeast IL with its isolated showers se of IL. Some fog over
southeast IL early this morning and has been locally dense in
spots like Olney with 1/4 mile. Mentioned patchy fog early this
morning from I-70 se and should be short lived as drier air
arrives during this morning behind the cold front. Dewpoints in
southeast IL are 55-60F while dewpoints drop into the lower to
middle 40s from I-55 nw and into the upper 30s near the IA/IL
border. Clearing skies working their way se toward I-55 and expect
clouds to decrease fairly quickly se of I-55 through mid morning.
1022 mb high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into central KS to
drift east into IL during this evening. A fair amount of sunshine
expected today with breezy nnw winds. Today and Wed highs expected
to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure drifting east over IL tonight brings fair skies and
light winds and cool lows 35 to 40F, with patchy frost possible
later tonight ne of Champaign/Urbana where lows in the mid 30s
expected.

Storm system over the Pacific states emerges into the high plains
during mid week and brings warm air advection regime into IL Wed
and Wed night. Still appears isolated showers to mainly be north and
nw of central IL and just have small pops north of Peoria Wed
afternoon and over the IL river valley Wed night. Low pressure
over eastern CO Wed afternoon ejects ne into WI Thu evening and
pulls a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Have likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon and then diminishing
from west to east during Thu evening after passage of cold front.
SPC has 5% risk of severe storms se of I-55 from mid Thu afternoon
to sunset Thu. SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG could support a few
damaging wind gusts over eastern/se IL. Highs Thu in the mid 60s
to lower 70s actually warm into the low to mid 70s Fri with return
of more sunshine. A secondary cold front pivots se through central
IL Fri evening and brings isolated light rain showers to areas
from I-74 ne followed by cooler temps Friday night and Sat.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Extended models and their ensembles are showing a blocking upper
level pattern this weekend into early next week with cloudier and
unsettled weather pattern, and temperatures cooling during this
period. Strong Canadian high pressure over Hudson Bay this weekend
will initially provide a cooler ene flow into central IL. Baroclinic
zone setting up to our sw over MO to have high chances of showers
while isolated showers could appear in western/sw areas by Sat
afternoon while ne areas toward I-74 likely stay dry Sat. Highs
Sat range from around 60F from Peoria north to upper 60s in
southeast IL. Strong upper level low/trof carving out in the
Rockies this weekend develops a strong surface low pressure into
western KS Sunday morning and warm front extending east into the
mid MS river valley. Expect increasing chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday and continues through
at least Monday night with highest pops sw areas. Highs Sunday
range from mid 50s from Peoria north to mid 60s in southeast IL.
Next Tue to be coolest day in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
highs as large upper level low moves into the MO river valley,
approaching western IL.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221559
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1059 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
High pressure building into the region and northerly winds
dominate. Winds slightly faster just off the sfc and a decent
pressure gradient... so will likely see some breezy conditions and
gusts to 25mph today. Sunny skies will dominate but temperatures
are far more seasonable with the cooler airmass in place. Forecast
is doing well and no updates are anticipated at this time.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through tonight as high pressure
settles in from the north. Surface winds will be out of the
north today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts
late this morning thru this afternoon. We should see winds
quickly diminish towards dark as the center of the high shifts
closer to our area, with a gradual shift into the east late
tonight.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Early morning surface map shows cold front pushing into far
southeast IL with its isolated showers se of IL. Some fog over
southeast IL early this morning and has been locally dense in
spots like Olney with 1/4 mile. Mentioned patchy fog early this
morning from I-70 se and should be short lived as drier air
arrives during this morning behind the cold front. Dewpoints in
southeast IL are 55-60F while dewpoints drop into the lower to
middle 40s from I-55 nw and into the upper 30s near the IA/IL
border. Clearing skies working their way se toward I-55 and expect
clouds to decrease fairly quickly se of I-55 through mid morning.
1022 mb high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into central KS to
drift east into IL during this evening. A fair amount of sunshine
expected today with breezy nnw winds. Today and Wed highs expected
to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure drifting east over IL tonight brings fair skies and
light winds and cool lows 35 to 40F, with patchy frost possible
later tonight ne of Champaign/Urbana where lows in the mid 30s
expected.

Storm system over the Pacific states emerges into the high plains
during mid week and brings warm air advection regime into IL Wed
and Wed night. Still appears isolated showers to mainly be north and
nw of central IL and just have small pops north of Peoria Wed
afternoon and over the IL river valley Wed night. Low pressure
over eastern CO Wed afternoon ejects ne into WI Thu evening and
pulls a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Have likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon and then diminishing
from west to east during Thu evening after passage of cold front.
SPC has 5% risk of severe storms se of I-55 from mid Thu afternoon
to sunset Thu. SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG could support a few
damaging wind gusts over eastern/se IL. Highs Thu in the mid 60s
to lower 70s actually warm into the low to mid 70s Fri with return
of more sunshine. A secondary cold front pivots se through central
IL Fri evening and brings isolated light rain showers to areas
from I-74 ne followed by cooler temps Friday night and Sat.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Extended models and their ensembles are showing a blocking upper
level pattern this weekend into early next week with cloudier and
unsettled weather pattern, and temperatures cooling during this
period. Strong Canadian high pressure over Hudson Bay this weekend
will initially provide a cooler ene flow into central IL. Baroclinic
zone setting up to our sw over MO to have high chances of showers
while isolated showers could appear in western/sw areas by Sat
afternoon while ne areas toward I-74 likely stay dry Sat. Highs
Sat range from around 60F from Peoria north to upper 60s in
southeast IL. Strong upper level low/trof carving out in the
Rockies this weekend develops a strong surface low pressure into
western KS Sunday morning and warm front extending east into the
mid MS river valley. Expect increasing chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday and continues through
at least Monday night with highest pops sw areas. Highs Sunday
range from mid 50s from Peoria north to mid 60s in southeast IL.
Next Tue to be coolest day in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
highs as large upper level low moves into the MO river valley,
approaching western IL.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 221109
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
609 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Early morning surface map shows cold front pushing into far
southeast IL with its isolated showers se of IL. Some fog over
southeast IL early this morning and has been locally dense in
spots like Olney with 1/4 mile. Mentioned patchy fog early this
morning from I-70 se and should be short lived as drier air
arrives during this morning behind the cold front. Dewpoints in
southeast IL are 55-60F while dewpoints drop into the lower to
middle 40s from I-55 nw and into the upper 30s near the IA/IL
border. Clearing skies working their way se toward I-55 and expect
clouds to decrease fairly quickly se of I-55 through mid morning.
1022 mb high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into central KS to
drift east into IL during this evening. A fair amount of sunshine
expected today with breezy nnw winds. Today and Wed highs expected
to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure drifting east over IL tonight brings fair skies and
light winds and cool lows 35 to 40F, with patchy frost possible
later tonight ne of Champaign/Urbana where lows in the mid 30s
expected.

Storm system over the Pacific states emerges into the high plains
during mid week and brings warm air advection regime into IL Wed
and Wed night. Still appears isolated showers to mainly be north and
nw of central IL and just have small pops north of Peoria Wed
afternoon and over the IL river valley Wed night. Low pressure
over eastern CO Wed afternoon ejects ne into WI Thu evening and
pulls a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Have likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon and then diminishing
from west to east during Thu evening after passage of cold front.
SPC has 5% risk of severe storms se of I-55 from mid Thu afternoon
to sunset Thu. SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG could support a few
damaging wind gusts over eastern/se IL. Highs Thu in the mid 60s
to lower 70s actually warm into the low to mid 70s Fri with return
of more sunshine. A secondary cold front pivots se through central
IL Fri evening and brings isolated light rain showers to areas
from I-74 ne followed by cooler temps Friday night and Sat.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Extended models and their ensembles are showing a blocking upper
level pattern this weekend into early next week with cloudier and
unsettled weather pattern, and temperatures cooling during this
period. Strong canadian high pressure over Hudson Bay this weekend
will initially provide a cooler ene flow into central IL. Baroclinic
zone setting up to our sw over MO to have high chances of showers
while isolated showers could appear in western/sw areas by Sat
afternoon while ne areas toward I-74 likely stay dry Sat. Highs
Sat range from around 60F from Peoria north to upper 60s in
southeast IL. Strong upper level low/trof carving out in the
Rockies this weekend develops a strong surface low pressure into
western KS Sunday morning and warm front extending east into the
mid MS river valley. Expect increasing chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday and continues through
at least Monday night with highest pops sw areas. Highs Sunday
range from mid 50s from Peoria north to mid 60s in southeast IL.
Next Tue to be coolest day in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
highs as large upper level low moves into the MO river valley,
approaching western IL.

07


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through tonight as high pressure
settles in from the north. Surface winds will be out of the
north today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts
late this morning thru this afternoon. We should see winds
quickly diminish towards dark as the center of the high shifts
closer to our area, with a gradual shift into the east late
tonight.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 220827
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
327 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Early morning surface map shows cold front pushing into far
southeast IL with its isolated showers se of IL. Some fog over
southeast IL early this morning and has been locally dense in
spots like Olney with 1/4 mile. Mentioned patchy fog early this
morning from I-70 se and should be short lived as drier air
arrives during this morning behind the cold front. Dewpoints in
southeast IL are 55-60F while dewpoints drop into the lower to
middle 40s from I-55 nw and into the upper 30s near the IA/IL
border. Clearing skies working their way se toward I-55 and expect
clouds to decrease fairly quickly se of I-55 through mid morning.
1022 mb high pressure from the eastern Dakotas into central KS to
drift east into IL during this evening. A fair amount of sunshine
expected today with breezy nnw winds. Today and Wed highs expected
to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure drifting east over IL tonight brings fair skies and
light winds and cool lows 35 to 40F, with patchy frost possible
later tonight ne of Champaign/Urbana where lows in the mid 30s
expected.

Storm system over the Pacific states emerges into the high plains
during mid week and brings warm air advection regime into IL Wed
and Wed night. Still appears isolated showers to mainly be north and
nw of central IL and just have small pops north of Peoria Wed
afternoon and over the IL river valley Wed night. Low pressure
over eastern CO Wed afternoon ejects ne into WI Thu evening and
pulls a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Have likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms Thu afternoon and then diminishing
from west to east during Thu evening after passage of cold front.
SPC has 5% risk of severe storms se of I-55 from mid Thu afternoon
to sunset Thu. SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG could support a few
damaging wind gusts over eastern/se IL. Highs Thu in the mid 60s
to lower 70s actually warm into the low to mid 70s Fri with return
of more sunshine. A secondary cold front pivots se through central
IL Fri evening and brings isolated light rain showers to areas
from I-74 ne followed by cooler temps Friday night and Sat.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Extended models and their ensembles are showing a blocking upper
level pattern this weekend into early next week with cloudier and
unsettled weather pattern, and temperatures cooling during this
period. Strong canadian high pressure over Hudson Bay this weekend
will initially provide a cooler ene flow into central IL. Baroclinic
zone setting up to our sw over MO to have high chances of showers
while isolated showers could appear in western/sw areas by Sat
afternoon while ne areas toward I-74 likely stay dry Sat. Highs
Sat range from around 60F from Peoria north to upper 60s in
southeast IL. Strong upper level low/trof carving out in the
Rockies this weekend develops a strong surface low pressure into
western KS Sunday morning and warm front extending east into the
mid MS river valley. Expect increasing chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sat night and Sunday and continues through
at least Monday night with highest pops sw areas. Highs Sunday
range from mid 50s from Peoria north to mid 60s in southeast IL.
Next Tue to be coolest day in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
highs as large upper level low moves into the MO river valley,
approaching western IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. Precip is
well past the sites, but clouds around 4-5kft still lingers over
the area as the front is slow to move across the state tonight.
Based on satellite trends, clouds will clear as the front moves
across the state and TAF sites. Once skies clear overnight,
believe they will remain clear through rest of the TAF period. SPI
has some light fog right now and believe this is from all the rain
they had this morning. Will have a TEMPO group to cover this now
and even for several hours once skies clear. Winds will become
northwest behind the front overnight. Then expecting good mixing
tomorrow and winds gusting to around 20kts from the north to northwest.
Winds will decrease during the early evening hours after 00z and
be out of the north.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 220449
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 903 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Showers continue to move across parts of the area this evening.
Current forecast looks ok, but need to make some adjustments to
location of bulk of light pcpn. In addition, will need to remove
mention of thunder from grids/forecast for rest of the evening.
Line of additional showers/storms to the northwest of the area
earlier this evening is dissipating and don`t believe this will be
a factor once front moves through overnight. Expect update shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. Precip is
well past the sites, but clouds around 4-5kft still lingers over
the area as the front is slow to move across the state tonight.
Based on satellite trends, clouds will clear as the front moves
across the state and TAF sites. Once skies clear overnight,
believe they will remain clear through rest of the TAF period. SPI
has some light fog right now and believe this is from all the rain
they had this morning. Will have a TEMPO group to cover this now
and even for several hours once skies clear. Winds will become
northwest behind the front overnight. Then expecting good mixing
tomorrow and winds gusting to around 20kts from the north to northwest.
Winds will decrease during the early evening hours after 00z and
be out of the north.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Much as anticipated, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are spreading across central and southeast Illinois today,
associated with the passage of a weak frontal system.
Precipitation chances end later tonight as the system pushes east
of the area. Then, primary forecast concerns turn to precipitation
chances with a stronger system for Thursday, as well as with a
more uncertain weather pattern to start next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday:

Given the current speed of the system, the precipitation threat
across the forecast area should end by shortly after midnight
tonight, with fairly rapid clearing expected in its wake.

The cooler air filtering in behind today`s system will drop
temperatures back closer to normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 60s). Quiet weather is expected for this period as
well as upper/surface ridging build across the area.

A stronger system than today`s is still on track for
Thursday/Thursday night, although the severe weather threat with
this system still does not appear to be very high. Instability is
likely to be rather low (CAPE values AOB 1000 j/kg), but bulk
shear will be better (on the order of 40 kts). Some of the guidance
still suggests we may see precipitation as early as late
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night in the pre-system warm
advection regime, but the most favored area for this precipitation
remains north of the forecast area. However, the strong WAA will
boost temperatures will above normal once again, with highs in the
70s in many areas.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:

Cooler temperatures begin to spill into the area Friday behind
Thursday`s system, but quiet weather is anticipated. From
Saturday, and especially Sunday, through the end of the period,
the forecast details become especially murky. While there is
general agreement that a Rex block will develop during the period,
the specific placement of the ridge and trofs is problematic at
best. The GFS and Canadian models have consistently kept our area
under the influence of the upper ridge and sprawling/dry surface
high, while the ECMWF has consistently pushed the upper low more
quickly beneath the ridge position. These differences suggest that
either an extended dry period (GFS/Canadian) or extended wet
period (ECMWF) is possible. Obviously, this is not very helpful,
and the considerable ensemble spread within each specific model is
not helpful either. So, given the considerable uncertainty,
keeping pops to the drier side of 50/50 seems to be the best bet.
Hopefully the models will sort out their differences soon with
respect to the expected blocking pattern.

Bak


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 220203
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 903 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Showers continue to move across parts of the area this evening.
Current forecast looks ok, but need to make some adjustments to
location of bulk of light pcpn. In addition, will need to remove
mention of thunder from grids/forecast for rest of the evening.
Line of additional showers/storms to the northwest of the area
earlier this evening is dissipating and don`t believe this will be
a factor once front moves through overnight. Expect update shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 653 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. All sites
will be overcast with clouds around 6-8kft this evening. Showers
will still be around the area too so will have each site with
VCSH. The showers will continue for about 2-4 hours from west to
east. Once the pcpn moves through, clouds will lift back to around
20kft, high cirrus. Once the front comes through, skies will
become clear and will last that way rest of the night and into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be west to southwest this evening and
then become westerly as the front pushes through. The front will
be broad, so a quick change to the northwest will not occur. Then
around midnight, winds will switch to more northerly and continue
that way through tomorrow. Speeds will be less than 10kts this
evening, but then pick up overnight and then become a little gusty
tomorrow.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Much as anticipated, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are spreading across central and southeast Illinois today,
associated with the passage of a weak frontal system.
Precipitation chances end later tonight as the system pushes east
of the area. Then, primary forecast concerns turn to precipitation
chances with a stronger system for Thursday, as well as with a
more uncertain weather pattern to start next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday:

Given the current speed of the system, the precipitation threat
across the forecast area should end by shortly after midnight
tonight, with fairly rapid clearing expected in its wake.

The cooler air filtering in behind today`s system will drop
temperatures back closer to normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 60s). Quiet weather is expected for this period as
well as upper/surface ridging build across the area.

A stronger system than today`s is still on track for
Thursday/Thursday night, although the severe weather threat with
this system still does not appear to be very high. Instability is
likely to be rather low (CAPE values AOB 1000 j/kg), but bulk
shear will be better (on the order of 40 kts). Some of the guidance
still suggests we may see precipitation as early as late
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night in the pre-system warm
advection regime, but the most favored area for this precipitation
remains north of the forecast area. However, the strong WAA will
boost temperatures will above normal once again, with highs in the
70s in many areas.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:

Cooler temperatures begin to spill into the area Friday behind
Thursday`s system, but quiet weather is anticipated. From
Saturday, and especially Sunday, through the end of the period,
the forecast details become especially murky. While there is
general agreement that a Rex block will develop during the period,
the specific placement of the ridge and trofs is problematic at
best. The GFS and Canadian models have consistently kept our area
under the influence of the upper ridge and sprawling/dry surface
high, while the ECMWF has consistently pushed the upper low more
quickly beneath the ridge position. These differences suggest that
either an extended dry period (GFS/Canadian) or extended wet
period (ECMWF) is possible. Obviously, this is not very helpful,
and the considerable ensemble spread within each specific model is
not helpful either. So, given the considerable uncertainty,
keeping pops to the drier side of 50/50 seems to be the best bet.
Hopefully the models will sort out their differences soon with
respect to the expected blocking pattern.

Bak

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 212353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
653 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Much as anticipated, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are spreading across central and southeast Illinois today,
associated with the passage of a weak frontal system.
Precipitation chances end later tonight as the system pushes east
of the area. Then, primary forecast concerns turn to precipitation
chances with a stronger system for Thursday, as well as with a
more uncertain weather pattern to start next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday:

Given the current speed of the system, the precipitation threat
across the forecast area should end by shortly after midnight
tonight, with fairly rapid clearing expected in its wake.

The cooler air filtering in behind today`s system will drop
temperatures back closer to normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 60s). Quiet weather is expected for this period as
well as upper/surface ridging build across the area.

A stronger system than today`s is still on track for
Thursday/Thursday night, although the severe weather threat with
this system still does not appear to be very high. Instability is
likely to be rather low (CAPE values AOB 1000 j/kg), but bulk
shear will be better (on the order of 40 kts). Some of the guidance
still suggests we may see precipitation as early as late
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night in the pre-system warm
advection regime, but the most favored area for this precipitation
remains north of the forecast area. However, the strong WAA will
boost temperatures will above normal once again, with highs in the
70s in many areas.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:

Cooler temperatures begin to spill into the area Friday behind
Thursday`s system, but quiet weather is anticipated. From
Saturday, and especially Sunday, through the end of the period,
the forecast details become especially murky. While there is
general agreement that a Rex block will develop during the period,
the specific placement of the ridge and trofs is problematic at
best. The GFS and Canadian models have consistently kept our area
under the influence of the upper ridge and sprawling/dry surface
high, while the ECMWF has consistently pushed the upper low more
quickly beneath the ridge position. These differences suggest that
either an extended dry period (GFS/Canadian) or extended wet
period (ECMWF) is possible. Obviously, this is not very helpful,
and the considerable ensemble spread within each specific model is
not helpful either. So, given the considerable uncertainty,
keeping pops to the drier side of 50/50 seems to be the best bet.
Hopefully the models will sort out their differences soon with
respect to the expected blocking pattern.

Bak

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 653 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. All sites
will be overcast with clouds around 6-8kft this evening. Showers
will still be around the area too so will have each site with
VCSH. The showers will continue for about 2-4 hours from west to
east. Once the pcpn moves through, clouds will lift back to around
20kft, high cirrus. Once the front comes through, skies will
become clear and will last that way rest of the night and into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be west to southwest this evening and
then become westerly as the front pushes through. The front will
be broad, so a quick change to the northwest will not occur. Then
around midnight, winds will switch to more northerly and continue
that way through tomorrow. Speeds will be less than 10kts this
evening, but then pick up overnight and then become a little gusty
tomorrow.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 211956
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Much as anticipated, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are spreading across central and southeast Illinois today,
associated with the passage of a weak frontal system.
Precipitation chances end later tonight as the system pushes east
of the area. Then, primary forecast concerns turn to precipitation
chances with a stronger system for Thursday, as well as with a
more uncertain weather pattern to start next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday:

Given the current speed of the system, the precipitation threat
across the forecast area should end by shortly after midnight
tonight, with fairly rapid clearing expected in its wake.

The cooler air filtering in behind today`s system will drop
temperatures back closer to normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 60s). Quiet weather is expected for this period as
well as upper/surface ridging build across the area.

A stronger system than today`s is still on track for
Thursday/Thursday night, although the severe weather threat with
this system still does not appear to be very high. Instability is
likely to be rather low (CAPE values AOB 1000 j/kg), but bulk
shear will be better (on the order of 40 kts). Some of the guidance
still suggests we may see precipitation as early as late
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night in the pre-system warm
advection regime, but the most favored area for this precipitation
remains north of the forecast area. However, the strong WAA will
boost temperatures will above normal once again, with highs in the
70s in many areas.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday:

Cooler temperatures begin to spill into the area Friday behind
Thursday`s system, but quiet weather is anticipated. From
Saturday, and especially Sunday, through the end of the period,
the forecast details become especially murky. While there is
general agreement that a Rex block will develop during the period,
the specific placement of the ridge and trofs is problematic at
best. The GFS and Canadian models have consistently kept our area
under the influence of the upper ridge and sprawling/dry surface
high, while the ECMWF has consistently pushed the upper low more
quickly beneath the ridge position. These differences suggest that
either an extended dry period (GFS/Canadian) or extended wet
period (ECMWF) is possible. Obviously, this is not very helpful,
and the considerable ensemble spread within each specific model is
not helpful either. So, given the considerable uncertainty,
keeping pops to the drier side of 50/50 seems to be the best bet.
Hopefully the models will sort out their differences soon with
respect to the expected blocking pattern.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
Majority of rainfall is from VFR cigs, with a +RA and reduced vis
from heaviest shower from SPI to BMI to briefly IFR. SHRA through the
afternoon with VCTS possible. Current lightning mostly confined to
the north and northwest near the front and better dynamics. Best
chance for iso ts is later this afternoon, but keeping with the
vcts for now as sunshine starting contribute to pockets of
increased instability. Cooling tops on sat imagery showing
increased vertical development. SW to W flow ahead of
boundary...switching around to NW behind fropa from 04z-07z. An
additional concern is the development of some MVFR cigs behind the
boundary...but will keep out of the fcst for now to see if the
cloud deck fills in and persists.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 211731
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
Cold front still to the NW and showers moving in ahead of the cold
air this morning. SW starting to see some brief showers...and
expect to spread through the afternoon. For now, isolated thunder
in southern WI. However, the showery nature of the rainfall allows
for some breaks in the clouds and diurnal heating to kick in.
Pockets of sunshine will contribute to some increased instability
as the day progresses. Still some dry air to work through out
there as the leading edge of the approaching precip still getting
eroded in the eastern half of the CONUS. Made some minor
adjustments to the morning pops...and the high temps as
well...dropping them just a bit as clouds and showers move in and
limit the overall temp rise. That being said...anyone that gets a
little bit of sunshine will likely be a couple degrees warmer.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
Majority of rainfall is from VFR cigs, with a +RA and reduced vis
from heaviest shower from SPI to BMI to briefly IFR. SHRA through the
afternoon with VCTS possible. Current lightning mostly confined to
the north and northwest near the front and better dynamics. Best
chance for iso ts is later this afternoon, but keeping with the
vcts for now as sunshine starting contribute to pockets of
increased instability. Cooling tops on sat imagery showing
increased vertical development. SW to W flow ahead of
boundary...switching around to NW behind fropa from 04z-07z. An
additional concern is the development of some MVFR cigs behind the
boundary...but will keep out of the fcst for now to see if the
cloud deck fills in and persists.


HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

00Z models in fair agreement next few days and have trended quicker
with moving cold front east of IL by overnight Thu night. Have
therefore lowered pops overnight Thu night.

First wx system to affect IL today and tonight is 1009 mb low
pressure just north of nw MN with its cold front into eastern NE
and central KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
system over IA and western MO to spread east across IL during the
day and mainly holding off until the afternoon especially eastern IL.
Another mild day in the mid to upper 70s with mildest readings
over eastern IL as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast. Cold
front to sweep east across IL this evening with showers likely
along with a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Rain
chances diminish by overnight and mainly east of I-57 early overnight
as skies clear from west to east overnight behind cold front. Lows
tonight range from mid 40s nw of IL river to near 55F se along the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

Weak high pressure ridge settles into IL by Tue evening and brings
fair skies Tue and Tue night along with cooler temps. Highs in the
low to mid 60s Tue/Wed with upper 60s se IL and sw areas. Lows
tonight 35 to 40 and could be some patchy frost over east central
IL where lows get in the mid 30s overnight Tue night with clear
skies and light winds.

A stronger storm system near the west coast to bring isolated waa
convection nw of IL river Wed and Wed night though better chances
with warm front to be further north of our CWA. Models consistent
is showing strong low pressure passing north of IL Thu/Thu night
though timing differences yet with passage of cold front, either
Thu afternoon or Thu evening. Likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thu and lingering over Thu evening especially
eastern IL. Will need to watch potential for strong to severe
storms Thu afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Dry conditions return Friday as models have shifted the wrap
around moisture further north by low pressure over WI/MI. So
removed the slight chance of rain showers ne counties Friday
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Fri to range from the
mid 60s north of Peoria to the mid 70s se of I-70. Dry conditions
prevail Friday night and most of Saturday as clouds increase by
Sat. Highs Sat in the upper 50s from I-74 north to mid 60s se of
I-70. GFS is trending further south with next storm system early
next week and keeping central IL mostly dry Sun/Mon. ECMWF is more
aggressive in bringing moisture ne into central/se IL by early
next week. Will continue chance pops of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Sat night through Monday. Highs Sunday similar
to Sat highs while a bit cooler Monday with highs 55-60F.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 211543
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1043 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
Cold front still to the NW and showers moving in ahead of the cold
air this morning. SW starting to see some brief showers...and
expect to spread through the afternoon. For now, isolated thunder
in southern WI. However, the showery nature of the rainfall allows
for some breaks in the clouds and diurnal heating to kick in.
Pockets of sunshine will contribute to some increased instability
as the day progresses. Still some dry air to work through out
there as the leading edge of the approaching precip still getting
eroded in the eastern half of the CONUS. Made some minor
adjustments to the morning pops...and the high temps as
well...dropping them just a bit as clouds and showers move in and
limit the overall temp rise. That being said...anyone that gets a
little bit of sunshine will likely be a couple degrees warmer.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. A large
area of VFR cigs was located just to our west this morning as a
weak cold front over west central Iowa shifts east. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front east
today with the better threat coming along this afternoon thru
this evening as the front approaches the area. A few locations
may see their cigs drop to MVFR for a brief time but based on
forecast soundings, it does not look like any extended period
of MVFR or lower cigs with this system. Surface flow will be
out of the southwest today at 10 to 15 kts with the winds veering
into a west and finally northwest direction after 00z-03z time
frame at PIA, SPI and BMI, and between 03z and 06z over the
remainder of the forecast area.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

00Z models in fair agreement next few days and have trended quicker
with moving cold front east of IL by overnight Thu night. Have
therefore lowered pops overnight Thu night.

First wx system to affect IL today and tonight is 1009 mb low
pressure just north of nw MN with its cold front into eastern NE
and central KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
system over IA and western MO to spread east across IL during the
day and mainly holding off until the afternoon especially eastern IL.
Another mild day in the mid to upper 70s with mildest readings
over eastern IL as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast. Cold
front to sweep east across IL this evening with showers likely
along with a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Rain
chances diminish by overnight and mainly east of I-57 early overnight
as skies clear from west to east overnight behind cold front. Lows
tonight range from mid 40s nw of IL river to near 55F se along the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

Weak high pressure ridge settles into IL by Tue evening and brings
fair skies Tue and Tue night along with cooler temps. Highs in the
low to mid 60s Tue/Wed with upper 60s se IL and sw areas. Lows
tonight 35 to 40 and could be some patchy frost over east central
IL where lows get in the mid 30s overnight Tue night with clear
skies and light winds.

A stronger storm system near the west coast to bring isolated waa
convection nw of IL river Wed and Wed night though better chances
with warm front to be further north of our CWA. Models consistent
is showing strong low pressure passing north of IL Thu/Thu night
though timing differences yet with passage of cold front, either
Thu afternoon or Thu evening. Likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thu and lingering over Thu evening especially
eastern IL. Will need to watch potential for strong to severe
storms Thu afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Dry conditions return Friday as models have shifted the wrap
around moisture further north by low pressure over WI/MI. So
removed the slight chance of rain showers ne counties Friday
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Fri to range from the
mid 60s north of Peoria to the mid 70s se of I-70. Dry conditions
prevail Friday night and most of Saturday as clouds increase by
Sat. Highs Sat in the upper 50s from I-74 north to mid 60s se of
I-70. GFS is trending further south with next storm system early
next week and keeping central IL mostly dry Sun/Mon. ECWMF is more
aggressive in bringing moisture ne into central/se IL by early
next week. Will continue chance pops of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Sat night through Monday. Highs Sunday similiar
to Sat highs while a bit cooler Monday with highs 55-60F.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 211125
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

00Z models in fair agreement next few days and have trended quicker
with moving cold front east of IL by overnight Thu night. Have
therefore lowered pops overnight Thu night.

First wx system to affect IL today and tonight is 1009 mb low
pressure just north of nw MN with its cold front into eastern NE
and central KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
system over IA and western MO to spread east across IL during the
day and mainly holding off until the afternoon especially eastern IL.
Another mild day in the mid to upper 70s with mildest readings
over eastern IL as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast. Cold
front to sweep east across IL this evening with showers likely
along with a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Rain
chances diminish by overnight and mainly east of I-57 early overnight
as skies clear from west to east overnight behind cold front. Lows
tonight range from mid 40s nw of IL river to near 55F se along the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

Weak high pressure ridge settles into IL by Tue evening and brings
fair skies Tue and Tue night along with cooler temps. Highs in the
low to mid 60s Tue/Wed with upper 60s se IL and sw areas. Lows
tonight 35 to 40 and could be some patchy frost over east central
IL where lows get in the mid 30s overnight Tue night with clear
skies and light winds.

A stronger storm system near the west coast to bring isolated waa
convection nw of IL river Wed and Wed night though better chances
with warm front to be further north of our CWA. Models consistent
is showing strong low pressure passing north of IL Thu/Thu night
though timing differences yet with passage of cold front, either
Thu afternoon or Thu evening. Likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thu and lingering over Thu evening especially
eastern IL. Will need to watch potential for strong to severe
storms Thu afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Dry conditions return Friday as models have shifted the wrap
around moisture further north by low pressure over WI/MI. So
removed the slight chance of rain showers ne counties Friday
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Fri to range from the
mid 60s north of Peoria to the mid 70s se of I-70. Dry conditions
prevail Friday night and most of Saturday as clouds increase by
Sat. Highs Sat in the upper 50s from I-74 north to mid 60s se of
I-70. GFS is trending further south with next storm system early
next week and keeping central IL mostly dry Sun/Mon. ECWMF is more
aggressive in bringing moisture ne into central/se IL by early
next week. Will continue chance pops of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Sat night through Monday. Highs Sunday similiar
to Sat highs while a bit cooler Monday with highs 55-60F.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. A large
area of VFR cigs was located just to our west this morning as a
weak cold front over west central Iowa shifts east. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front east
today with the better threat coming along this afternoon thru
this evening as the front approaches the area. A few locations
may see their cigs drop to MVFR for a brief time but based on
forecast soundings, it does not look like any extended period
of MVFR or lower cigs with this system. Surface flow will be
out of the southwest today at 10 to 15 kts with the winds veering
into a west and finally northwest direction after 00z-03z time
frame at PIA, SPI and BMI, and between 03z and 06z over the
remainder of the forecast area.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 210831
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
331 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

00Z models in fair agreement next few days and have trended quicker
with moving cold front east of IL by overnight Thu night. Have
therefore lowered pops overnight Thu night.

First wx system to affect IL today and tonight is 1009 mb low
pressure just north of nw MN with its cold front into eastern NE
and central KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
system over IA and western MO to spread east across IL during the
day and mainly holding off until the afternoon especially eastern IL.
Another mild day in the mid to upper 70s with mildest readings
over eastern IL as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast. Cold
front to sweep east across IL this evening with showers likely
along with a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Rain
chances diminish by overnight and mainly east of I-57 early overnight
as skies clear from west to east overnight behind cold front. Lows
tonight range from mid 40s nw of IL river to near 55F se along the
Wabash river by Lawrenceville.

Weak high pressure ridge settles into IL by Tue evening and brings
fair skies Tue and Tue night along with cooler temps. Highs in the
low to mid 60s Tue/Wed with upper 60s se IL and sw areas. Lows
tonight 35 to 40 and could be some patchy frost over east central
IL where lows get in the mid 30s overnight Tue night with clear
skies and light winds.

A stronger storm system near the west coast to bring isolated waa
convection nw of IL river Wed and Wed night though better chances
with warm front to be further north of our CWA. Models consistent
is showing strong low pressure passing north of IL Thu/Thu night
though timing differences yet with passage of cold front, either
Thu afternoon or Thu evening. Likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thu and lingering over Thu evening especially
eastern IL. Will need to watch potential for strong to severe
storms Thu afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Dry conditions return Friday as models have shifted the wrap
around moisture further north by low pressure over WI/MI. So
removed the slight chance of rain showers ne counties Friday
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Fri to range from the
mid 60s north of Peoria to the mid 70s se of I-70. Dry conditions
prevail Friday night and most of Saturday as clouds increase by
Sat. Highs Sat in the upper 50s from I-74 north to mid 60s se of
I-70. GFS is trending further south with next storm system early
next week and keeping central IL mostly dry Sun/Mon. ECWMF is more
aggressive in bringing moisture ne into central/se IL by early
next week. Will continue chance pops of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Sat night through Monday. Highs Sunday similiar
to Sat highs while a bit cooler Monday with highs 55-60F.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

VFR conditions will still prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Mid
clouds around 15kft will overspread the area overnight in advance
of the next system approaching from the west. As it gets closer
tomorrow morning, cigs will fall some, reaching to around 8kft.
Models indicate there could be some light showers or sprinkles
from this, but confidence is not very high given how dry the lower
levels are. So will just have VCSH for late morning at each site.
Then as the front gets closer, cigs will drop a little but will be
adding a scattered deck at around 3.5-4kft. Precip should be
ongoing and there is a chance that thunder could be there as well.
Again with dry surface levels, do not expect much reduction in vis
when showers are occurring. So only going with 6sm. As the front
moves in during the early evening hours, pcpn will end and
expecting cigs to rise back to around 10kft for remainder of the
night. Winds will be south to southwesterly overnight, but then
become west-southwesterly during the afternoon when the showers
arrive. West to northwest winds can be expected after the front,
though CMI will likely switch closer to 06z than the others.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 210450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

High clouds continue to blanket the sky over central and southeast
Illinois this evening. This will continue overnight as well. Just
like last night, dewpoints are quite low, but blanket of clouds
will keep temps from falling too far by morning. Current forecast
of lower to middle 50s overnight still looks good. Therefore no
update required at this time.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

VFR conditions will still prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Mid
clouds around 15kft will overspread the area overnight in advance
of the next system approaching from the west. As it gets closer
tomorrow morning, cigs will fall some, reaching to around 8kft.
Models indicate there could be some light showers or sprinkles
from this, but confidence is not very high given how dry the lower
levels are. So will just have VCSH for late morning at each site.
Then as the front gets closer, cigs will drop a little but will be
adding a scattered deck at around 3.5-4kft. Precip should be
ongoing and there is a chance that thunder could be there as well.
Again with dry surface levels, do not expect much reduction in vis
when showers are occurring. So only going with 6sm. As the front
moves in during the early evening hours, pcpn will end and
expecting cigs to rise back to around 10kft for remainder of the
night. Winds will be south to southwesterly overnight, but then
become west-southwesterly during the afternoon when the showers
arrive. West to northwest winds can be expected after the front,
though CMI will likely switch closer to 06z than the others.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

Another pleasantly mild day continues to unfold across central and
southeast Illinois. As expected, temperatures are a little warmer
than yesterday thanks to increasing southerly flow in advance of a
developing storm system in the plains. Main forecast concerns today
revolve around shower/storm chances tomorrow with the passage of
the plains system, as well as with a stronger system for Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday:

The approaching plains system is still expected to produce showers
and a few thunderstorms as it passes through Monday into Monday
night. However, it will not be a significant system in terms of
precipitation amounts or storm intensity.

The forcing with this system will come courtesy of loosely phased
northern/southern stream waves, but the more vigorous forcing with
these features should stay north/south respectively of the
forecast area. In addition, only modest instability (CAPE values
AOB 1000 j/kg), and weak bulk shear (less than 20 kts) are
anticipated.

The precipitation threat will come to an end fairly quickly Monday
night as the system pushes east of the area. Quiet weather and more
seasonable temperatures (highs in the 60s) will accompany the
upper/surface ridging that will build in behind the system into
midweek.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday:

The next, more vigorous, system is still on track to bring
showers/storms to the area for Thursday into Thursday night, mostly
associated with the passage of the system`s cold front. However,
can`t rule out a stray shower or storm in the pre-system warm
advection regime as early as Wednesday or Wednesday night. However,
most of this precipitation should occur north of the forecast area.

After a brief surge of warmer air ahead of Thursday`s system,
temperatures will cool back to normal levels, possibly colder, for
the weekend. Model agreement and run-to-run consistency with the
overall weather pattern for the weekend is not very good. While
they generally agree on a cooler trend, they don`t agree with how
quickly we get there. The timing differences are also reflected in
how quickly precipitation chances return. The ECMWF has been most
aggressive by far with the arrival of the cooler air and wetter
conditions, although the latest GFS has trended closer to the
ECMWF. Plan to keep PoPs on the lower side, and temperatures a bit
more moderate, until a better model consensus is reached.

Bak


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 210200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

High clouds continue to blanket the sky over central and southeast
Illinois this evening. This will continue overnight as well. Just
like last night, dewpoints are quite low, but blanket of clouds
will keep temps from falling too far by morning. Current forecast
of lower to middle 50s overnight still looks good. Therefore no
update required at this time.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. High cirrus
will continue over the area, affecting each site this evening.
Then mid clouds around 12kt will begin to advect into the region
from the southwest, starting at PIA at around 07z, then gradually
moving east, reaching CMI around 13z. Then lower clouds around
5kft will move into during the morning hours in the west, to
afternoon hours in the east. Think precip will be scattered
showers or light rain at the beginning, well ahead of the front,
so have just VCSH at all sites during the morning hours in the
west, to afternoon hours in the east. Then more predominate
showers will move in during the afternoon in the west, and late
afternoon in the east. Keeping vis and cigs VFR for now and later
forecasts can adjust if confidence is higher that category will
drop to below VFR. Also have included VCTS with the predominate
showers. Winds will be southerly to start but then become
southwest the remainder of the TAF period. Wind shift due to the
front will likley be after 00z tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain
below 15kts and do not expect any gusts.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

Another pleasantly mild day continues to unfold across central and
southeast Illinois. As expected, temperatures are a little warmer
than yesterday thanks to increasing southerly flow in advance of a
developing storm system in the plains. Main forecast concerns today
revolve around shower/storm chances tomorrow with the passage of
the plains system, as well as with a stronger system for Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday:

The approaching plains system is still expected to produce showers
and a few thunderstorms as it passes through Monday into Monday
night. However, it will not be a significant system in terms of
precipitation amounts or storm intensity.

The forcing with this system will come courtesy of loosely phased
northern/southern stream waves, but the more vigorous forcing with
these features should stay north/south respectively of the
forecast area. In addition, only modest instability (CAPE values
AOB 1000 j/kg), and weak bulk shear (less than 20 kts) are
anticipated.

The precipitation threat will come to an end fairly quickly Monday
night as the system pushes east of the area. Quiet weather and more
seasonable temperatures (highs in the 60s) will accompany the
upper/surface ridging that will build in behind the system into
midweek.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday:

The next, more vigorous, system is still on track to bring
showers/storms to the area for Thursday into Thursday night, mostly
associated with the passage of the system`s cold front. However,
can`t rule out a stray shower or storm in the pre-system warm
advection regime as early as Wednesday or Wednesday night. However,
most of this precipitation should occur north of the forecast area.

After a brief surge of warmer air ahead of Thursday`s system,
temperatures will cool back to normal levels, possibly colder, for
the weekend. Model agreement and run-to-run consistency with the
overall weather pattern for the weekend is not very good. While
they generally agree on a cooler trend, they don`t agree with how
quickly we get there. The timing differences are also reflected in
how quickly precipitation chances return. The ECMWF has been most
aggressive by far with the arrival of the cooler air and wetter
conditions, although the latest GFS has trended closer to the
ECMWF. Plan to keep PoPs on the lower side, and temperatures a bit
more moderate, until a better model consensus is reached.

Bak

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 202335
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
635 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

Another pleasantly mild day continues to unfold across central and
southeast Illinois. As expected, temperatures are a little warmer
than yesterday thanks to increasing southerly flow in advance of a
developing storm system in the plains. Main forecast concerns today
revolve around shower/storm chances tomorrow with the passage of
the plains system, as well as with a stronger system for Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday:

The approaching plains system is still expected to produce showers
and a few thunderstorms as it passes through Monday into Monday
night. However, it will not be a significant system in terms of
precipitation amounts or storm intensity.

The forcing with this system will come courtesy of loosely phased
northern/southern stream waves, but the more vigorous forcing with
these features should stay north/south respectively of the
forecast area. In addition, only modest instability (CAPE values
AOB 1000 j/kg), and weak bulk shear (less than 20 kts) are
anticipated.

The precipitation threat will come to an end fairly quickly Monday
night as the system pushes east of the area. Quiet weather and more
seasonable temperatures (highs in the 60s) will accompany the
upper/surface ridging that will build in behind the system into
midweek.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday:

The next, more vigorous, system is still on track to bring
showers/storms to the area for Thursday into Thursday night, mostly
associated with the passage of the system`s cold front. However,
can`t rule out a stray shower or storm in the pre-system warm
advection regime as early as Wednesday or Wednesday night. However,
most of this precipitation should occur north of the forecast area.

After a brief surge of warmer air ahead of Thursday`s system,
temperatures will cool back to normal levels, possibly colder, for
the weekend. Model agreement and run-to-run consistency with the
overall weather pattern for the weekend is not very good. While
they generally agree on a cooler trend, they don`t agree with how
quickly we get there. The timing differences are also reflected in
how quickly precipitation chances return. The ECMWF has been most
aggressive by far with the arrival of the cooler air and wetter
conditions, although the latest GFS has trended closer to the
ECMWF. Plan to keep PoPs on the lower side, and temperatures a bit
more moderate, until a better model consensus is reached.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. High cirrus
will continue over the area, affecting each site this evening.
Then mid clouds around 12kt will begin to advect into the region
from the southwest, starting at PIA at around 07z, then gradually
moving east, reaching CMI around 13z. Then lower clouds around
5kft will move into during the morning hours in the west, to
afternoon hours in the east. Think precip will be scattered
showers or light rain at the beginning, well ahead of the front,
so have just VCSH at all sites during the morning hours in the
west, to afternoon hours in the east. Then more predominate
showers will move in during the afternoon in the west, and late
afternoon in the east. Keeping vis and cigs VFR for now and later
forecasts can adjust if confidence is higher that category will
drop to below VFR. Also have included VCTS with the predominate
showers. Winds will be southerly to start but then become
southwest the remainder of the TAF period. Wind shift due to the
front will likley be after 00z tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain
below 15kts and do not expect any gusts.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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