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000
FXUS63 KILX 161525 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1024 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST INTO IOWA AND THEN
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE HURON. AS IT PROGRESSES, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS IL, PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
THIS EVENING. DURING THE DAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
SD LOW. 12Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
825-850 MB. THAT SHOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30-39 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR
MORE. PEAK WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NOON TO 3 PM TIME FRAME.

MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP THE SURFACE TEMPS
CLIMB ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LIGHTLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS, WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S BY 3-4 PM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IL
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL, LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS AND SKY. NO FORMAL UPDATE WILL
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 556 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS TAF SET. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME EVEN HIGHER AT
KPIA. WE WILL LOSE THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.

GEELHART
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOW
TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO
AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT KPIA SHOWS 33KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, AS OPPOSED TO 43KT ON THE PRIOR RUN JUST 24
HOURS AGO. DESPITE THIS DECREASE IN MOMENTUM, THINK S/SE WINDS
WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
KILX CWA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH FURTHER EAST NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXTENT OF WARMING WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5000FT. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.

AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, IT WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, CREATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT TO PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT,
BUOYS IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING DEW POINTS AS LOW
AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, DO
NOT THINK FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO
PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
THAT IS HOLDING ON TO QPF ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT, WILL LEAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE DRY AIR MASS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A WARM/DRY DAY ON SATURDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER WITH ITS APPROACH, WITH MOST 00Z APR 16 GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EASTER SUNDAY MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN DRIVING PRECIP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, BUT EVEN IT HAS
BACKED OFF AND KEEPS RAIN AT BAY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. GEM FOCUSES BEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WHILE ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND ADVERTISES MAINLY A MONDAY RAIN
EVENT. AS A RESULT OF THE DISTINCT SLOWING TREND, HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DRY,
THEN WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME
FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY WEEK RAIN CHANCES, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL FEATURE WARMER WEATHER, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING TEMPS REACHING THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

BARNES

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS63 KILX 161521
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1021 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Low pressure in South Dakota sill move east into Iowa and then
northeast toward Lake Huron. As it progresses, a warm front will
lift across IL, putting our forecast area in the warm sector by
this evening. During the day, southerly winds will increase as the
pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and the
SD low. 12z RAP forecast soundings show mixing heights up to
825-850 mb. That should allow momentum transfer of wind speeds
around 25 mph with some gusts to 35 mph. We expect to remain
below wind advisory criteria of 30-39 mph sustained winds for an
hour or more. Peak winds appear to be in the Noon to 3 pm time
frame.

Mixing of dry air from the mid levels will help the surface temps
climb about 10 to 15 deg warmer than yesterday. Lightly filtered
sunshine will also help boost high temps, with readings in the mid
to upper 50s by 3-4 pm.

We should remain dry until the cold front pushes across IL
sometime late Thursday/Thursday night. Still, limited moisture
will keep rain chances and amounts on the low side.

Our current forecast grids look on track over the next 12-24 hours,
especially temps, dewpoints, winds and sky. No formal update will
be needed this morning.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 556 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Little change needed to previous TAF set. Wind will be the main
concern through this afternoon. Southerly wind gusts around 30
knots are expected to develop near all TAF sites by late morning,
and continue through the afternoon. May see some even higher at
KPIA. We will lose the gusts with sunset, but sustained winds will
still average around 15 knots much of the night. Late in the
period, winds will start to shift more to the southwest, ahead of
a cold front which will move through the area later on Thursday.

Geelhart
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Winds will increase markedly across central Illinois today as
gradient tightens between departing high pressure system and low
tracking from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. Models are not
quite as strong with the winds as they were in previous runs, so
am not concerned about reaching Wind Advisory criteria. BUFKIT
momentum transfer at KPIA shows 33kt winds at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon, as opposed to 43kt on the prior run just 24
hours ago. Despite this decrease in momentum, think S/SE winds
will gust to between 30 and 35mph across the western half of the
KILX CWA, with gusts to around 25mph further east near the
Indiana border. This strong southerly flow will help bring much
warmer air into the region. Extent of warming will be mitigated
somewhat by an easterly component to the wind and mixing heights
lowering to less than 5000ft. Resulting afternoon highs will range
from the middle 50s east to around 60 far west.

As southern Minnesota low lifts toward Lake Superior, it will
drag a weak cold front into the Illinois River Valley by dawn
Thursday. This boundary will become stationary along the I-55
corridor during the day Thursday, creating little in the way of
sensible weather. A mid-level short-wave will approach from the
southwest late in the day and will eventually interact with the
front to perhaps produce a few light showers. Current surface
analysis shows a very dry air mass has settled across the eastern
half of the CONUS all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact,
buoys in the northern Gulf are currently showing dew points as low
as the middle to upper 30s. With so much dry air to the south, do
not think front will have enough moisture to work with in order to
produce precip across the area on Thursday. GFS is the only model
that is holding on to QPF across the Illinois River Valley
Thursday afternoon, but think this is overdone. Will therefore go
with a dry forecast across the board. There are even some
indications that dry conditions will continue Thursday night into
Friday as the upper wave arrives. At this point, will leave chance
PoPs for showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning as synoptic lift associated with the wave will likely be
enough to squeeze a few light showers out of the dry air mass. Once
the wave passes, dry weather will return Friday afternoon and
night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

After a warm/dry day on Saturday, attention turns to next
approaching system for early next week. Models have been trending
slower with its approach, with most 00z Apr 16 guidance suggesting
Easter Sunday may remain largely dry. GFS is the most aggressive
model in driving precip eastward into the area, but even it has
backed off and keeps rain at bay until Sunday afternoon at the
earliest. GEM focuses best rain chances Sunday night into Monday,
while ECMWF is even slower and advertises mainly a Monday rain
event. As a result of the distinct slowing trend, have trimmed
PoPs accordingly. Will keep Saturday night and Sunday morning dry,
then will bring chance PoPs into the picture across the western
CWA Sunday afternoon. Will highlight the Sunday night/Monday time
frame with the highest PoPs, followed by a return to dry weather
on Tuesday. Aside from the early week rain chances, the extended
forecast will feature warmer weather, with model guidance
suggesting temps reaching the 70s by Tuesday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 161104
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
604 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Winds will increase markedly across central Illinois today as
gradient tightens between departing high pressure system and low
tracking from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. Models are not
quite as strong with the winds as they were in previous runs, so
am not concerned about reaching Wind Advisory criteria. BUFKIT
momentum transfer at KPIA shows 33kt winds at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon, as opposed to 43kt on the prior run just 24
hours ago. Despite this decrease in momentum, think S/SE winds
will gust to between 30 and 35mph across the western half of the
KILX CWA, with gusts to around 25mph further east near the
Indiana border. This strong southerly flow will help bring much
warmer air into the region. Extent of warming will be mitigated
somewhat by an easterly component to the wind and mixing heights
lowering to less than 5000ft. Resulting afternoon highs will range
from the middle 50s east to around 60 far west.

As southern Minnesota low lifts toward Lake Superior, it will
drag a weak cold front into the Illinois River Valley by dawn
Thursday. This boundary will become stationary along the I-55
corridor during the day Thursday, creating little in the way of
sensible weather. A mid-level short-wave will approach from the
southwest late in the day and will eventually interact with the
front to perhaps produce a few light showers. Current surface
analysis shows a very dry air mass has settled across the eastern
half of the CONUS all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact,
buoys in the northern Gulf are currently showing dew points as low
as the middle to upper 30s. With so much dry air to the south, do
not think front will have enough moisture to work with in order to
produce precip across the area on Thursday. GFS is the only model
that is holding on to QPF across the Illinois River Valley
Thursday afternoon, but think this is overdone. Will therefore go
with a dry forecast across the board. There are even some
indications that dry conditions will continue Thursday night into
Friday as the upper wave arrives. At this point, will leave chance
PoPs for showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning as synoptic lift associated with the wave will likely be
enough to squeeze a few light showers out of the dry air mass. Once
the wave passes, dry weather will return Friday afternoon and
night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

After a warm/dry day on Saturday, attention turns to next
approaching system for early next week. Models have been trending
slower with its approach, with most 00z Apr 16 guidance suggesting
Easter Sunday may remain largely dry. GFS is the most aggressive
model in driving precip eastward into the area, but even it has
backed off and keeps rain at bay until Sunday afternoon at the
earliest. GEM focuses best rain chances Sunday night into Monday,
while ECMWF is even slower and advertises mainly a Monday rain
event. As a result of the distinct slowing trend, have trimmed
PoPs accordingly. Will keep Saturday night and Sunday morning dry,
then will bring chance PoPs into the picture across the western
CWA Sunday afternoon. Will highlight the Sunday night/Monday time
frame with the highest PoPs, followed by a return to dry weather
on Tuesday. Aside from the early week rain chances, the extended
forecast will feature warmer weather, with model guidance
suggesting temps reaching the 70s by Tuesday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 556 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Little change needed to previous TAF set. Wind will be the main
concern through this afternoon. Southerly wind gusts around 30
knots are expected to develop near all TAF sites by late morning,
and continue through the afternoon. May see some even higher at
KPIA. We will lose the gusts with sunset, but sustained winds will
still average around 15 knots much of the night. Late in the
period, winds will start to shift more to the southwest, ahead of
a cold front which will move through the area later on Thursday.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ052-054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KILX 160749
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Winds will increase markedly across central Illinois today as
gradient tightens between departing high pressure system and low
tracking from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. Models are not
quite as strong with the winds as they were in previous runs, so
am not concerned about reaching Wind Advisory criteria. BUFKIT
momentum transfer at KPIA shows 33kt winds at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon, as opposed to 43kt on the prior run just 24
hours ago. Despite this decrease in momentum, think S/SE winds
will gust to between 30 and 35mph across the western half of the
KILX CWA, with gusts to around 25mph further east near the
Indiana border. This strong southerly flow will help bring much
warmer air into the region. Extent of warming will be mitigated
somewhat by an easterly component to the wind and mixing heights
lowering to less than 5000ft. Resulting afternoon highs will range
from the middle 50s east to around 60 far west.

As southern Minnesota low lifts toward Lake Superior, it will
drag a weak cold front into the Illinois River Valley by dawn
Thursday. This boundary will become stationary along the I-55
corridor during the day Thursday, creating little in the way of
sensible weather. A mid-level short-wave will approach from the
southwest late in the day and will eventually interact with the
front to perhaps produce a few light showers. Current surface
analysis shows a very dry airmass has settled across the eastern
half of the CONUS all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact,
buoys in the northern Gulf are currently showing dewpoints as low
as the middle to upper 30s. With so much dry air to the south, do
not think front will have enough moisture to work with in order to
produce precip across the area on Thursday. GFS is the only model
that is holding on to QPF across the Illinois River Valley
Thursday afternoon, but think this is overdone. Will therefore go
with a dry forecast across the board. There are even some
indications that dry conditions will continue Thursday night into
Friday as the upper wave arrives. At this point, will leave chance
POPs for showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning as synoptic lift associated with the wave will likely be
enough to squeeze a few light showers out of the dry airmass. Once
the wave passes, dry weather will return Friday afternoon and
night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

After a warm/dry day on Saturday, attention turns to next
approaching system for early next week. Models have been trending
slower with its approach, with most 00z Apr 16 guidance suggesting
Easter Sunday may remain largely dry. GFS is the most aggressive
model in driving precip eastward into the area, but even it has
backed off and keeps rain at bay until Sunday afternoon at the
earliest. GEM focuses best rain chances Sunday night into Monday,
while ECMWF is even slower and advertises mainly a Monday rain
event. As a result of the distinct slowing trend, have trimmed
POPs accordingly. Will keep Saturday night and Sunday morning dry,
then will bring chance POPs into the picture across the western
CWA Sunday afternoon. Will highlight the Sunday night/Monday time
frame with the highest POPs, followed by a return to dry weather
on Tuesday. Aside from the early week rain chances, the extended
forecast will feature warmer weather, with model guidance
suggesting temps reaching the 70s by Tuesday.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus will move into the area, affecting all sites several hours
after TAF issuance time. Then mid clouds around 15kft will advect
into the area, but should remain scattered as moisture is limited
and best moisture will be up north where the bulk of the system is
expected to track. Then expecting some scattered cirrus again in
the evening. Winds are southeast as high pressure ridge has
quickly moved east of the area this evening. Tomorrow, winds will
become southerly and increase in speed, as winds mix down from
around 6kft. So gusts should be around 30kts at all sites for
morning and afternoon. After 01z, winds will decrease and lose the
gustiness.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ052-054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 160450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 919 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Skies are clear and should remain mostly clear overnight.
Overnight low forecast still looks ok, but may make some small
adjustments to temp trends for remainder of the night. Freeze
warning will continue for overnight. No update planned at this time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus will move into the area, affecting all sites several hours
after TAF issuance time. Then mid clouds around 15kft will advect
into the area, but should remain scattered as moisture is limited
and best moisture will be up north where the bulk of the system is
expected to track. Then expecting some scattered cirrus again in
the evening. Winds are southeast as high pressure ridge has
quickly moved east of the area this evening. Tomorrow, winds will
become southerly and increase in speed, as winds mix down from
around 6kft. So gusts should be around 30kts at all sites for
morning and afternoon. After 01z, winds will decrease and lose the
gustiness.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

One more night of freezing conditions is on tap, then warmer
conditions will finish out the week. However, very few areas will
see above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. The storm
system that will bring significant snows to NE Minnesota and N
Wisconsin will drag a cold front across IL Thur night into Friday.
We will see a return of colder air Fri/Fri night as a result, but
hopefully not more freezing temps like the 15/06z GFS run indicated.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

Scattered flurries developed this afternoon in our NE counties as
the upper trough axis pushed across eastern IL. That precipitation
should come to an end by evening as subsidence prevails in the
wake of the trough. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with
weakening winds for the balance of the night, setting up favorable
radiational cooling conditions, especially in the east. The
coldest air will be primarily closer to the Indiana border, with
freezing conditions in most of our KILX CWA.

Based on climatological analysis of the current growing season so
far, only out southern third of counties have seen enough growing
degree days to warrant freeze headlines. Given that, and the
expectation for the coldest lows to be in the east, we decided to
issue a Freeze Warning only for 11 of our SE counties. Basically
SE of a line from Christian to Coles counties. We are expecting
southerly winds to begin to develop from west to east late
tonight, which will work to keep western areas warmer, or have
their low temps occur earlier in the night. The winds should even
develop in the east shortly after sunrise on Wed, helping push
temps above freezing by 9 am.

The south winds will increase quickly on Wed, in response to low
pressure to the NW of IL. Momentum transfer plots show mixing
heights will tap into wind speeds of 40-45 mph. We should see
sustained south winds climb into the 20-30 mph range, with some
gusts to 40 mph. The peak winds look to be for 4 hours between 11
am and 3 pm, but gusts will continue into early evening. We are
close to wind advisory criteria, or 30-39 mph sustained winds for an
hour or more. Areas west of I-55 will have the stronger winds, so
closer analysis may be needed from tonight`s models to see if an
advisory is warranted.

As the cold front arrives later Thursday, we will see increasing
mid level moisture, and probably some virga on radar later in the
afternoon. Cold rain showers may develop Thur night as colder air
begins to filter into IL behind the cold front. We can not
completely rule out some snow flakes reaching the ground late Thur
night into Friday morning, but air temps from 850mb to the surface
do not see supportive of snow reaching the ground, so we will keep
all precipitation chances as rain for now Thur night into Fri morn.

By Friday afternoon, a dry punch behind the front will help to
shut down precip from west to east. The pocket of cold air will be
brief, but we may see enough clearing for a few spots in the north
to approach the mid 30s for low temps. No freezing conditions are
forecast at this time Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

A warming trend will establish next weekend ahead of the next
weather system. Highs should reach the low 60s on Sat and mid to
upper 60s on Sunday, which will be close to normal highs. Rain
chances will begin again Saturday night NW of the IL river, then
expand eastward on Sunday as the lower troposphere saturates
closer to the ground. Our highest PoPs in the extended are Sunday
night, with 40-50 Pct chances across the board, in response to the
upper trough axis and shortwave pushing across IL.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return of high pressure with dry and
relatively mild conditions.

Shimon


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ052-054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 160219
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
919 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 919 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Skies are clear and should remain mostly clear overnight.
Overnight low forecast still looks ok, but may make some small
adjustments to temp trends for remainder of the night. Freeze
warning will continue for overnight. No update planned at this time.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will become clear this evening, but then high cirrus will move in
after midnight. Then models forecast some mid level moisture
advecting into the northern half of the state tomorrow morning. So
will have a broken mid deck at 15kft for PIA and BMI, and a
scattered mid deck at 15kft for SPI, DEC, and CMI. The mid level
clouds will continue into the afternoon hours tomorrow. Winds will
become light and variable tonight as high pressure ridge moves
over the area. Then southeast winds expected overnight, followed
by windy southerly conditions for tomorrow morning through
afternoon. Winds should gust to around 30kts at all sites.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

One more night of freezing conditions is on tap, then warmer
conditions will finish out the week. However, very few areas will
see above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. The storm
system that will bring significant snows to NE Minnesota and N
Wisconsin will drag a cold front across IL Thur night into Friday.
We will see a return of colder air Fri/Fri night as a result, but
hopefully not more freezing temps like the 15/06z GFS run indicated.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

Scattered flurries developed this afternoon in our NE counties as
the upper trough axis pushed across eastern IL. That precipitation
should come to an end by evening as subsidence prevails in the
wake of the trough. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with
weakening winds for the balance of the night, setting up favorable
radiational cooling conditions, especially in the east. The
coldest air will be primarily closer to the Indiana border, with
freezing conditions in most of our KILX CWA.

Based on climatological analysis of the current growing season so
far, only out southern third of counties have seen enough growing
degree days to warrant freeze headlines. Given that, and the
expectation for the coldest lows to be in the east, we decided to
issue a Freeze Warning only for 11 of our SE counties. Basically
SE of a line from Christian to Coles counties. We are expecting
southerly winds to begin to develop from west to east late
tonight, which will work to keep western areas warmer, or have
their low temps occur earlier in the night. The winds should even
develop in the east shortly after sunrise on Wed, helping push
temps above freezing by 9 am.

The south winds will increase quickly on Wed, in response to low
pressure to the NW of IL. Momentum transfer plots show mixing
heights will tap into wind speeds of 40-45 mph. We should see
sustained south winds climb into the 20-30 mph range, with some
gusts to 40 mph. The peak winds look to be for 4 hours between 11
am and 3 pm, but gusts will continue into early evening. We are
close to wind advisory criteria, or 30-39 mph sustained winds for an
hour or more. Areas west of I-55 will have the stronger winds, so
closer analysis may be needed from tonight`s models to see if an
advisory is warranted.

As the cold front arrives later Thursday, we will see increasing
mid level moisture, and probably some virga on radar later in the
afternoon. Cold rain showers may develop Thur night as colder air
begins to filter into IL behind the cold front. We can not
completely rule out some snow flakes reaching the ground late Thur
night into Friday morning, but air temps from 850mb to the surface
do not see supportive of snow reaching the ground, so we will keep
all precipitation chances as rain for now Thur night into Fri morn.

By Friday afternoon, a dry punch behind the front will help to
shut down precip from west to east. The pocket of cold air will be
brief, but we may see enough clearing for a few spots in the north
to approach the mid 30s for low temps. No freezing conditions are
forecast at this time Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

A warming trend will establish next weekend ahead of the next
weather system. Highs should reach the low 60s on Sat and mid to
upper 60s on Sunday, which will be close to normal highs. Rain
chances will begin again Saturday night NW of the IL river, then
expand eastward on Sunday as the lower troposphere saturates
closer to the ground. Our highest PoPs in the extended are Sunday
night, with 40-50 Pct chances across the board, in response to the
upper trough axis and shortwave pushing across IL.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return of high pressure with dry and
relatively mild conditions.

Shimon

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ052-054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 152326
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
626 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

One more night of freezing conditions is on tap, then warmer
conditions will finish out the week. However, very few areas will
see above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. The storm
system that will bring significant snows to NE Minnesota and N
Wisconsin will drag a cold front across IL Thur night into Friday.
We will see a return of colder air Fri/Fri night as a result, but
hopefully not more freezing temps like the 15/06z GFS run indicated.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

Scattered flurries developed this afternoon in our NE counties as
the upper trough axis pushed across eastern IL. That precipitation
should come to an end by evening as subsidence prevails in the
wake of the trough. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with
weakening winds for the balance of the night, setting up favorable
radiational cooling conditions, especially in the east. The
coldest air will be primarily closer to the Indiana border, with
freezing conditions in most of our KILX CWA.

Based on climatological analysis of the current growing season so
far, only out southern third of counties have seen enough growing
degree days to warrant freeze headlines. Given that, and the
expectation for the coldest lows to be in the east, we decided to
issue a Freeze Warning only for 11 of our SE counties. Basically
SE of a line from Christian to Coles counties. We are expecting
southerly winds to begin to develop from west to east late
tonight, which will work to keep western areas warmer, or have
their low temps occur earlier in the night. The winds should even
develop in the east shortly after sunrise on Wed, helping push
temps above freezing by 9 am.

The south winds will increase quickly on Wed, in response to low
pressure to the NW of IL. Momentum transfer plots show mixing
heights will tap into wind speeds of 40-45 mph. We should see
sustained south winds climb into the 20-30 mph range, with some
gusts to 40 mph. The peak winds look to be for 4 hours between 11
am and 3 pm, but gusts will continue into early evening. We are
close to wind advisory criteria, or 30-39 mph sustained winds for an
hour or more. Areas west of I-55 will have the stronger winds, so
closer analysis may be needed from tonight`s models to see if an
advisory is warranted.

As the cold front arrives later Thursday, we will see increasing
mid level moisture, and probably some virga on radar later in the
afternoon. Cold rain showers may develop Thur night as colder air
begins to filter into IL behind the cold front. We can not
completely rule out some snow flakes reaching the ground late Thur
night into Friday morning, but air temps from 850mb to the surface
do not see supportive of snow reaching the ground, so we will keep
all precipitation chances as rain for now Thur night into Fri morn.

By Friday afternoon, a dry punch behind the front will help to
shut down precip from west to east. The pocket of cold air will be
brief, but we may see enough clearing for a few spots in the north
to approach the mid 30s for low temps. No freezing conditions are
forecast at this time Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

A warming trend will establish next weekend ahead of the next
weather system. Highs should reach the low 60s on Sat and mid to
upper 60s on Sunday, which will be close to normal highs. Rain
chances will begin again Saturday night NW of the IL river, then
expand eastward on Sunday as the lower troposphere saturates
closer to the ground. Our highest PoPs in the extended are Sunday
night, with 40-50 Pct chances across the board, in response to the
upper trough axis and shortwave pushing across IL.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return of high pressure with dry and
relatively mild conditions.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will become clear this evening, but then high cirrus will move in
after midnight. Then models forecast some mid level moisture
advecting into the northern half of the state tomorrow morning. So
will have a broken mid deck at 15kft for PIA and BMI, and a
scattered mid deck at 15kft for SPI, DEC, and CMI. The mid level
clouds will continue into the afternoon hours tomorrow. Winds will
become light and variable tonight as high pressure ridge moves
over the area. Then southeast winds expected overnight, followed
by windy southerly conditions for tomorrow morning through
afternoon. Winds should gust to around 30kts at all sites.

Auten
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ052-054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 152003
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

One more night of freezing conditions is on tap, then warmer
conditions will finish out the week. However, very few areas will
see above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. The storm
system that will bring significant snows to NE Minnesota and N
Wisconsin will drag a cold front across IL Thur night into Friday.
We will see a return of colder air Fri/Fri night as a result, but
hopefully not more freezing temps like the 15/06z GFS run indicated.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

Scattered flurries developed this afternoon in our NE counties as
the upper trough axis pushed across eastern IL. That precipitation
should come to an end by evening as subsidence prevails in the
wake of the trough. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with
weakening winds for the balance of the night, setting up favorable
radiational cooling conditions, especially in the east. The
coldest air will be primarily closer to the Indiana border, with
freezing conditions in most of our KILX CWA.

Based on climatological analysis of the current growing season so
far, only out southern third of counties have seen enough growing
degree days to warrant freeze headlines. Given that, and the
expectation for the coldest lows to be in the east, we decided to
issue a Freeze Warning only for 11 of our SE counties. Basically
SE of a line from Christian to Coles counties. We are expecting
southerly winds to begin to develop from west to east late
tonight, which will work to keep western areas warmer, or have
their low temps occur earlier in the night. The winds should even
develop in the east shortly after sunrise on Wed, helping push
temps above freezing by 9 am.

The south winds will increase quickly on Wed, in response to low
pressure to the NW of IL. Momentum transfer plots show mixing
heights will tap into wind speeds of 40-45 mph. We should see
sustained south winds climb into the 20-30 mph range, with some
gusts to 40 mph. The peak winds look to be for 4 hours between 11
am and 3 pm, but gusts will continue into early evening. We are
close to wind advisory criteria, or 30-39 mph sustained winds for an
hour or more. Areas west of I-55 will have the stronger winds, so
closer analysis may be needed from tonight`s models to see if an
advisory is warranted.

As the cold front arrives later Thursday, we will see increasing
mid level moisture, and probably some virga on radar later in the
afternoon. Cold rain showers may develop Thur night as colder air
begins to filter into IL behind the cold front. We can not
completely rule out some snow flakes reaching the ground late Thur
night into Friday morning, but air temps from 850mb to the surface
do not see supportive of snow reaching the ground, so we will keep
all precipitation chances as rain for now Thur night into Fri morn.

By Friday afternoon, a dry punch behind the front will help to
shut down precip from west to east. The pocket of cold air will be
brief, but we may see enough clearing for a few spots in the north
to approach the mid 30s for low temps. No freezing conditions are
forecast at this time Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

A warming trend will establish next weekend ahead of the next
weather system. Highs should reach the low 60s on Sat and mid to
upper 60s on Sunday, which will be close to normal highs. Rain
chances will begin again Saturday night NW of the IL river, then
expand eastward on Sunday as the lower troposphere saturates
closer to the ground. Our highest PoPs in the extended are Sunday
night, with 40-50 Pct chances across the board, in response to the
upper trough axis and shortwave pushing across IL.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return of high pressure with dry and
relatively mild conditions.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus cloud field with VFR bases of 4-6k ft
over central IL airports early this afternoon to gradually
decrease from west to east later this afternoon and dissipate by
sunset as upper level trof over MI/IN pulls eastward across the
ohio river valley during this afternoon. Breezy nw winds 10-15 kts
and gusts near 20 kts to diminish light and variable after sunset
as weak high pressure ridge drifts east over IL. 1001 mb low
pressure over central MT to track to the western MN/IA border by
18Z/1 pm Wed. This to increase mid/high clouds from the west later
tonight into Wed morning. Also increasing pressure gradient Wed
morning to increase sse winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts
after 14Z/9 am Wed.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ054-056-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 151754
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Updated forecast just after 9 am for the ending of the freeze
warning sw counties. May need another freeze warning overnight across
the southern counties. Will update the forecast late this morning
to address more cumulus clouds forming over central and eastern IL
than earlier expected where skies currently partly to mostly cloudy.
Still expect mostly sunny skies over western counties and eastern
counties should see cumulus clouds decrease from west to east
during the afternoon as upper level trof shifts east of IL/IN later
today. Brisk nw winds 15 to 25 mph with cool highs in the low to
mid 40s look on track today.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus cloud field with VFR bases of 4-6k ft
over central IL airports early this afternoon to gradually
decrease from west to east later this afternoon and dissipate by
sunset as upper level trof over MI/IN pulls eastward across the
ohio river valley during this afternoon. Breezy nw winds 10-15 kts
and gusts near 20 kts to diminish light and variable after sunset
as weak high pressure ridge drifts east over IL. 1001 mb low
pressure over central MT to track to the western MN/IA border by
18Z/1 pm Wed. This to increase mid/high clouds from the west later
tonight into Wed morning. Also increasing pressure gradient Wed
morning to increase sse winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts
after 14Z/9 am Wed.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across central Illinois
today. After chilly early morning lows in the upper 20s and lower
30s, afternoon high temperatures will only manage to reach the
middle to upper 40s. Winds will be quite a bit lighter than
yesterday, with a northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph expected.
The high pressure ridge will be positioned directly over the area
this evening, then will shift into the Ohio River Valley by dawn
Wednesday. As a result, coldest overnight lows in the upper 20s
will be focused across east-central and southeast Illinois where
winds will be lightest in closer proximity to the ridge axis.
Further west, a 10 to 15mph return flow will develop late tonight
across the Illinois River Valley, which will keep lows slightly
warmer in the lower 30s.

The pressure gradient between the exiting high and an area of low
pressure tracking through the Dakotas into Wisconsin will bring
windy conditions to central Illinois on Wednesday. In fact, a Wind
Advisory may eventually be needed for the W/NW KILX CWA where
gradient will be tightest. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance
indicate sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30mph in this area.
BUFKIT momentum transfer for KPIA shows potential gusts to around
40mph during the afternoon. Further southeast, gusts to 35mph will
be a good bet. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and ample
sunshine, temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

As Wisconsin low lifts into southern Canada, it will drag a cold
front toward central Illinois on Thursday. Front will become
stationary across the Illinois River Valley before an approaching
mid-level short-wave gives it a push eastward Thursday night into
Friday. While air mass will initially be quite dry, both the NAM
and GFS indicate a narrow band of post-frontal precip developing
Thursday afternoon/evening. GFS is further east into the NW CWA
with the precip, while the NAM holds it slightly further west
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Given proximity of
boundary, will carry slight chance PoPs along/west of the Illinois
River Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Better rain chances arrive Thursday night into Friday as upper
wave tracks through the region. 00z Apr 15 models are not quite as
strong with the wave or its corresponding surface features.
Previous runs of both the GFS and ECMWF had shown a closed
surface low tracking through Illinois on Friday, but now no such
feature is evident. Even still, the upper wave interacting with a
weak surface boundary will be enough to trigger a few showers
Thursday night into Friday. Once this system moves eastward out
of the area, warm and dry weather will be on tap for Saturday
before another system potentially brings rain on Easter Sunday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb trough tracking through the
Midwest late in the weekend: however, the track and timing of the
wave remain somewhat in question. Latest ECMWF is deeper/further
south with the feature, resulting in a slower arrival of rain
chances mainly Sunday night into Monday. GFS has slowed from its
previous solutions as well, with the strongest lift crossing the
area Sunday night. With so many run-to-run discrepancies, decided
to make very few changes to the going forecast. Will still feature
a chance for showers during the day Sunday, but will hit PoPs
hardest Sunday night before shifting them south out of the area by
Monday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 151544
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Updated forecast just after 9 am for the ending of the freeze
warning sw counties. May need another freeze warning overnight across
the southern counties. Will update the forecast late this morning
to address more cumulus clouds forming over central and eastern IL
than earlier expected where skies currently partly to mostly cloudy.
Still expect mostly sunny skies over western counties and eastern
counties should see cumulus clouds decrease from west to east
during the afternoon as upper level trof shifts east of IL/IN later
today.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Last of the MVFR clouds has pushed southeast of KCMI, although
there are more extensive MVFR conditions just to the east in
Indiana due to lake effect snow showers. Some stratocumulus
development expected around mid morning and may briefly entail
broken ceilings, but these should be around 4000 feet and quickly
scatter out again. Gusty northwest winds will become light and
variable tonight as an area of high pressure moves through, then
should become more steadily out of the southeast around 10 knots
by the end of the forecast period. NAM model showing some
potential for LLWS toward the end of the period at KPIA and KSPI,
although best potential appears just to the west and will hold off
inclusion in this set of TAFs.

Geelhart
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across central Illinois
today. After chilly early morning lows in the upper 20s and lower
30s, afternoon high temperatures will only manage to reach the
middle to upper 40s. Winds will be quite a bit lighter than
yesterday, with a northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph expected.
The high pressure ridge will be positioned directly over the area
this evening, then will shift into the Ohio River Valley by dawn
Wednesday. As a result, coldest overnight lows in the upper 20s
will be focused across east-central and southeast Illinois where
winds will be lightest in closer proximity to the ridge axis.
Further west, a 10 to 15mph return flow will develop late tonight
across the Illinois River Valley, which will keep lows slightly
warmer in the lower 30s.

The pressure gradient between the exiting high and an area of low
pressure tracking through the Dakotas into Wisconsin will bring
windy conditions to central Illinois on Wednesday. In fact, a Wind
Advisory may eventually be needed for the W/NW KILX CWA where
gradient will be tightest. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance
indicate sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30mph in this area.
BUFKIT momentum transfer for KPIA shows potential gusts to around
40mph during the afternoon. Further southeast, gusts to 35mph will
be a good bet. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and ample
sunshine, temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

As Wisconsin low lifts into southern Canada, it will drag a cold
front toward central Illinois on Thursday. Front will become
stationary across the Illinois River Valley before an approaching
mid-level short-wave gives it a push eastward Thursday night into
Friday. While air mass will initially be quite dry, both the NAM
and GFS indicate a narrow band of post-frontal precip developing
Thursday afternoon/evening. GFS is further east into the NW CWA
with the precip, while the NAM holds it slightly further west
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Given proximity of
boundary, will carry slight chance PoPs along/west of the Illinois
River Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Better rain chances arrive Thursday night into Friday as upper
wave tracks through the region. 00z Apr 15 models are not quite as
strong with the wave or its corresponding surface features.
Previous runs of both the GFS and ECMWF had shown a closed
surface low tracking through Illinois on Friday, but now no such
feature is evident. Even still, the upper wave interacting with a
weak surface boundary will be enough to trigger a few showers
Thursday night into Friday. Once this system moves eastward out
of the area, warm and dry weather will be on tap for Saturday
before another system potentially brings rain on Easter Sunday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb trough tracking through the
Midwest late in the weekend: however, the track and timing of the
wave remain somewhat in question. Latest ECMWF is deeper/further
south with the feature, resulting in a slower arrival of rain
chances mainly Sunday night into Monday. GFS has slowed from its
previous solutions as well, with the strongest lift crossing the
area Sunday night. With so many run-to-run discrepancies, decided
to make very few changes to the going forecast. Will still feature
a chance for showers during the day Sunday, but will hit PoPs
hardest Sunday night before shifting them south out of the area by
Monday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 151111
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
611 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across central Illinois
today. After chilly early morning lows in the upper 20s and lower
30s, afternoon high temperatures will only manage to reach the
middle to upper 40s. Winds will be quite a bit lighter than
yesterday, with a northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph expected.
The high pressure ridge will be positioned directly over the area
this evening, then will shift into the Ohio River Valley by dawn
Wednesday. As a result, coldest overnight lows in the upper 20s
will be focused across east-central and southeast Illinois where
winds will be lightest in closer proximity to the ridge axis.
Further west, a 10 to 15mph return flow will develop late tonight
across the Illinois River Valley, which will keep lows slightly
warmer in the lower 30s.

The pressure gradient between the exiting high and an area of low
pressure tracking through the Dakotas into Wisconsin will bring
windy conditions to central Illinois on Wednesday. In fact, a Wind
Advisory may eventually be needed for the W/NW KILX CWA where
gradient will be tightest. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance
indicate sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30mph in this area.
BUFKIT momentum transfer for KPIA shows potential gusts to around
40mph during the afternoon. Further southeast, gusts to 35mph will
be a good bet. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and ample
sunshine, temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

As Wisconsin low lifts into southern Canada, it will drag a cold
front toward central Illinois on Thursday. Front will become
stationary across the Illinois River Valley before an approaching
mid-level short-wave gives it a push eastward Thursday night into
Friday. While air mass will initially be quite dry, both the NAM
and GFS indicate a narrow band of post-frontal precip developing
Thursday afternoon/evening. GFS is further east into the NW CWA
with the precip, while the NAM holds it slightly further west
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Given proximity of
boundary, will carry slight chance PoPs along/west of the Illinois
River Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Better rain chances arrive Thursday night into Friday as upper
wave tracks through the region. 00z Apr 15 models are not quite as
strong with the wave or its corresponding surface features.
Previous runs of both the GFS and ECMWF had shown a closed
surface low tracking through Illinois on Friday, but now no such
feature is evident. Even still, the upper wave interacting with a
weak surface boundary will be enough to trigger a few showers
Thursday night into Friday. Once this system moves eastward out
of the area, warm and dry weather will be on tap for Saturday
before another system potentially brings rain on Easter Sunday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb trough tracking through the
Midwest late in the weekend: however, the track and timing of the
wave remain somewhat in question. Latest ECMWF is deeper/further
south with the feature, resulting in a slower arrival of rain
chances mainly Sunday night into Monday. GFS has slowed from its
previous solutions as well, with the strongest lift crossing the
area Sunday night. With so many run-to-run discrepancies, decided
to make very few changes to the going forecast. Will still feature
a chance for showers during the day Sunday, but will hit PoPs
hardest Sunday night before shifting them south out of the area by
Monday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Last of the MVFR clouds has pushed southeast of KCMI, although
there are more extensive MVFR conditions just to the east in
Indiana due to lake effect snow showers. Some stratocumulus
development expected around mid morning and may briefly entail
broken ceilings, but these should be around 4000 feet and quickly
scatter out again. Gusty northwest winds will become light and
variable tonight as an area of high pressure moves through, then
should become more steadily out of the southeast around 10 knots
by the end of the forecast period. NAM model showing some
potential for LLWS toward the end of the period at KPIA and KSPI,
although best potential appears just to the west and will hold off
inclusion in this set of TAFs.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 150801
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across central Illinois
today. After chilly early morning lows in the upper 20s and lower
30s, afternoon high temperatures will only manage to reach the
middle to upper 40s. Winds will be quite a bit lighter than
yesterday, with a northwesterly breeze of 10 to 15mph expected.
The high pressure ridge will be positioned directly over the area
this evening, then will shift into the Ohio River Valley by dawn
Wednesday. As a result, coldest overnight lows in the upper 20s
will be focused across east-central and southeast Illinois where
winds will be lightest in closer proximity to the ridge axis.
Further west, a 10 to 15mph return flow will develop late tonight
across the Illinois River Valley, which will keep lows slightly
warmer in the lower 30s.

The pressure gradient between the exiting high and an area of low
pressure tracking through the Dakotas into Wisconsin will bring
windy conditions to central Illinois on Wednesday. In fact, a Wind
Advisory may eventually be needed for the W/NW KILX CWA where
gradient will be tightest. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance
indicate sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30mph in this area.
BUFKIT momentum transfer for KPIA shows potential gusts to around
40mph during the afternoon. Further southeast, gusts to 35mph will
be a good bet. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and ample
sunshine, temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

As Wisconsin low lifts into southern Canada, it will drag a cold
front toward central Illinois on Thursday. Front will become
stationary across the Illinois River Valley before an approaching
mid-level short-wave gives it a push eastward Thursday night into
Friday. While airmass will initially be quite dry, both the NAM
and GFS indicate a narrow band of post-frontal precip developing
Thursday afternoon/evening. GFS is further east into the NW CWA
with the precip, while the NAM holds it slightly further west
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Given proximity of
boundary, will carry slight chance POPs along/west of the Illinois
River Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Better rain chances arrive Thursday night into Friday as upper
wave tracks through the region. 00z Apr 15 models are not quite as
strong with the wave or its corresponding surface features.
Previous runs of both the GFS and ECMWF had shown a closed
surface low tracking through Illinois on Friday, but now no such
feature is evident. Even still, the upper wave interacting with a
weak surface boundary will be enough to trigger a few showers
Thursday night into Friday. Once this system moves eastward out
of the area, warm and dry weather will be on tap for Saturday
before another system potentially brings rain on Easter Sunday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb trough tracking through the
Midwest late in the weekend: however, the track and timing of the
wave remain somewhat in question. Latest ECMWF is deeper/further
south with the feature, resulting in a slower arrival of rain
chances mainly Sunday night into Monday. GFS has slowed from its
previous solutions as well, with the strongest lift crossing the
area Sunday night. With so many run-to-run discrepancies, decided
to make very few changes to the going forecast. Will still feature
a chance for showers during the day Sunday, but will hit POPs
hardest Sunday night before shifting them south out of the area by
Monday.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Snow has ended across the central Illinois terminals over the past
few hours, and skies are rapidly clearing now from west to east.
Expect skies to clear within the next few hours where they have
not already done so. Some diurnal cloud development is likely for
Tuesday, but expect only scattered CU for the most part. A
persistent northwest breeze will persist for much of the period
between departing low pressure and an approaching ridge of high
pressure. Winds should eventually trend light/variable Tuesday
evening as the ridge pushes in.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 150445
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Light precipitation is steadily ending from west to east across
the forecast area late this evening. The snow has largely ended
west of the I-55 corridor, but is still falling east I-55. South
of a Taylorville to Paris line there is still a rain/snow mix falling.

Given the latest radar trends, the snow should have exit the area
to the east by midnight or 1 AM Tuesday morning. The end of the
snow will be quickly followed by a clearing trend in the skies.

Have updated forecast for latest precipitation/cloud trends. Also
made minor tweaks to the other parameters to better fit recent
hourly trends for the rest of the night.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Snow has ended across the central Illinois terminals over the past
few hours, and skies are rapidly clearing now from west to east.
Expect skies to clear within the next few hours where they have
not already done so. Some diurnal cloud development is likely for
Tuesday, but expect only scattered CU for the most part. A
persistent northwest breeze will persist for much of the period
between departing low pressure and an approaching ridge of high
pressure. Winds should eventually trend light/variable Tuesday
evening as the ridge pushes in.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast
flow.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052-054-
056-061-062-066-067-071-072.

&&

$$












000
FXUS63 KILX 150205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Light precipitation is steadily ending from west to east across
the forecast area late this evening. The snow has largely ended
west of the I-55 corridor, but is still falling east I-55. South
of a Taylorville to Paris line there is still a rain/snow mix falling.

Given the latest radar trends, the snow should have exit the area
to the east by midnight or 1 AM Tuesday morning. The end of the
snow will be quickly followed by a clearing trend in the skies.

Have updated forecast for latest precipitation/cloud trends. Also
made minor tweaks to the other parameters to better fit recent
hourly trends for the rest of the night.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 653 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

The next few hours will see IFR/MVFR conditions in light snow on
the back side of yesterday`s storm system over the central
Illinois terminals. Then, skies will clear within a few hours of
midnight tonight, with VFR conditions expected for the duration of
the 00Z TAF valid time. Northwest winds will gradually diminish
with time as the pressure gradient on the back side of the
departing storm system weakens.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast
flow.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061-062-066-067-071-072.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 142353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
653 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast
flow.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 653 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

The next few hours will see IFR/MVFR conditions in light snow on
the back side of yesterday`s storm system over the central
Illinois terminals. Then, skies will clear within a few hours of
midnight tonight, with VFR conditions expected for the duration of
the 00Z TAF valid time. Northwest winds will gradually diminish
with time as the pressure gradient on the back side of the
departing storm system weakens.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061-062-066-067-071-072.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 141945
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast
flow.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Expect scattered light rain showers to redevelop across the
central IL airports this afternoon. The light rain will mix with
and change to light snow during the afternoon and early evening with
MVFR vsbys possible at times. MVFR ceilings will also continue
across the central IL airports through this evening and then
scatter out from west to east between 05Z-09Z starting at western
taf sites of PIA and SPI and last at eastern taf site of CMI.
Blustery NNW winds 14-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts this afternoon
will diminish to 10-15 kts after sunset and be NW 7-13 kts later
tonight and Tue morning. Strong cold front over central IN into
far nw KY has passed se of IL by midday. Strong upper level trof
and embedded northern stream short wave over the upper Midwest
will settle into IL this evening, then shift east of IL by dawn
Tue as surface high pressure ridge shifts into the eastern plains
Tue morning. Nearby upper level trof could still produce at least
scattered cumulus clouds around 3k ft Tue morning especially in
eastern IL and broken cu/stratocu ceilings by midday Tue may be
near or just east of CMI.

07
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Here are some record low temperatures for Peoria, Springfield and
Lincoln for tonight and Tuesday night (April 15th and 16th)...

Peoria for tonight:        23 degrees set back in 1928
Peoria for Tuesday night:  24 degrees set back in 1962

Springfield tonight:       25 degrees set back in 1928
Springfiled Tue night:     26 degrees set back in 1962

Lincoln for tonight:       21 degrees set back in 1928
Lincolh for Tue night:     25 degrees set back in 1962

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061-062-066-067-071-072.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 141800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Will update the forecast to bring in a chance of light snow to
areas nw of the IL river a few hours sooner during midday while
having patchy light rain showers/drizzle mixing with light snow
over rest of central IL during the afternoon and over eastern IL
this evening. Snowfall amounts on grassy surfaces still appear
minor, near a half inch or less north of I-70 by midnight with
little or no snow in southeast IL from I-70 south. The cold front
is about to pass se across the Wabash river near Lawrenceville
which currently is 63F. Temps have already fallen into the upper
30s and lower 40s over central IL with brisk nnw winds 15 to 25
mph and gusty. Will continue falling temps over se IL into the
low to mid 40s during this afternoon with temps hovering in the
upper 30s over the IL river valley.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Expect scattered light rain showers to redevelop across the
central IL airports this afternoon. The light rain will mix with
and change to light snow during the afternoon and early evening with
MVFR vsbys possible at times. MVFR ceilings will also continue
across the central IL airports through this evening and then
scatter out from west to east between 05Z-09Z starting at western
taf sites of PIA and SPI and last at eastern taf site of CMI.
Blustery NNW winds 14-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts this afternoon
will diminish to 10-15 kts after sunset and be NW 7-13 kts later
tonight and Tue morning. Strong cold front over central IN into
far nw KY has passed se of IL by midday. Strong upper level trof
and embedded northern stream short wave over the upper Midwest
will settle into IL this evening, then shift east of IL by dawn
Tue as surface high pressure ridge shifts into the eastern plains
Tue morning. Nearby upper level trof could still produce at least
scattered cumulus clouds around 3k ft Tue morning especially in
eastern IL and broken cu/stratocu ceilings by midday Tue may be
near or just east of CMI.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front just west of the
Illinois River, with main area of rain well east of the boundary
across Kentucky and Indiana. Front will progress eastward through
the region early this morning, exiting the E/SE KILX CWA between
12z and 15z. With deepest fetch of moisture displaced well to
the east and deformation zone precip across Iowa shifting
northeastward into Wisconsin, a distinct lull in precip chances
will occur across central Illinois this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow layer of low-level moisture in
place, resulting in overcast conditions and perhaps a few
scattered showers. Better precip chances will return this
afternoon/evening as a northern stream short-wave currently
pushing through the Dakotas approaches from the northwest. As
synoptic lift increases and soundings moisten, showers will become
more numerous across the area. Enough cold air will arrive aloft
to support a rain/snow mix across the western half of the CWA this
afternoon, although air temps in the upper 30s and warm ground
conditions will prevent any snow accumulation. Once the sun goes
down and temps begin to drop, the precip will change to
predominantly snow this evening before shifting eastward and
coming to an end by midnight. A minor accumulation of a couple
tenths of an inch will be possible, especially across the NE CWA
around Champaign and Danville. Once precip ends, skies will clear
from west to east overnight. Numeric guidance is showing very cold
low temps dipping into the lower to middle 20s: however, think
initial cloud cover and continued brisk northwesterly winds will
keep readings from dropping quite that low. Instead, will forecast
lows mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

High pressure will build into the Midwest on Tuesday, resulting in
diminishing winds and a return to sunny skies. Despite sunshine,
afternoon high temperatures will remain well below normal for this
time of year in the 40s. Once high pushes eastward, a strong
southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance suggest wind gusts potentially
reaching 35 mph by afternoon. Given ample sunshine and strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will rebound well into the 50s.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

The extended forecast will be characterized by a warmer/wetter
pattern. Once deep upper trough initially in place over the Great
Lakes/Midwest shifts eastward, a progressive zonal flow will take
hold across the CONUS for the end of this week into early next
week. The end result will be a return to near normal temperatures
in the 60s with periodic chances for rain. After a warm/dry day on
Thursday, the first in a series of systems will track into the
region Thursday night into Friday. Models are in fairly good
agreement with the timing and track of this feature, with the
ECMWF/GEM remaining just slightly slower than the GFS. Will
continue with chance PoPs across the western half of the CWA
Thursday night, then across the board on Friday. Another warm/dry
day will be on tap in the wake of this system on Saturday. After
that, model discrepancies still exist concerning potential
disturbance on Easter. All models show a 500mb wave passing
through the Midwest on Sunday. The difference is that the GFS
remains dry with this feature, while both the ECMWF and GEM are
developing showers. While moisture will be somewhat lacking due
to limited return flow from the Gulf of Mexico, think strength of
upper wave and good agreement between the ECMWF/GEM warrants a
mention of showers for Easter Sunday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 141545
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Will update the forecast to bring in a chance of light snow to
areas nw of the IL river a few hours sooner during midday while
having patchy light rain showers/drizzle mixing with light snow
over rest of central IL during the afternoon and over eastern IL
this evening. Snowfall amounts on grassy surfaces still appear
minor, near a half inch or less north of I-70 by midnight with
little or no snow in southeast IL from I-70 south. The cold front
is about to pass se across the Wabash river near Lawrenceville
which currently is 63F. Temps have already fallen into the upper
30s and lower 40s over central IL with brisk nnw winds 15 to 25
mph and gusty. Will continue falling temps over se IL into the
low to mid 40s during this afternoon with temps hovering in the
upper 30s over the IL river valley.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Cold front has passed all of the TAF sites, and northwest winds
will gradually become more northerly while still gusting from
25-30 knots into early evening. Have had some showers redevelop in
central Illinois moving northeast, but there will be a period of
drier weather through about early afternoon, at which point rain
showers will become more numerous. Colder air spilling into the
area will start to switch the precipitation to a rain/snow mix mid
to late afternoon at most TAF sites, although perhaps holding off
at KCMI til closer to 00Z. The precipitation will become all snow
for a time before ending mid to late evening. MVFR ceilings will
be persistent until late evening, then break up once the
precipitation ends.

Geelhart
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front just west of the
Illinois River, with main area of rain well east of the boundary
across Kentucky and Indiana. Front will progress eastward through
the region early this morning, exiting the E/SE KILX CWA between
12z and 15z. With deepest fetch of moisture displaced well to
the east and deformation zone precip across Iowa shifting
northeastward into Wisconsin, a distinct lull in precip chances
will occur across central Illinois this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow layer of low-level moisture in
place, resulting in overcast conditions and perhaps a few
scattered showers. Better precip chances will return this
afternoon/evening as a northern stream short-wave currently
pushing through the Dakotas approaches from the northwest. As
synoptic lift increases and soundings moisten, showers will become
more numerous across the area. Enough cold air will arrive aloft
to support a rain/snow mix across the western half of the CWA this
afternoon, although air temps in the upper 30s and warm ground
conditions will prevent any snow accumulation. Once the sun goes
down and temps begin to drop, the precip will change to
predominantly snow this evening before shifting eastward and
coming to an end by midnight. A minor accumulation of a couple
tenths of an inch will be possible, especially across the NE CWA
around Champaign and Danville. Once precip ends, skies will clear
from west to east overnight. Numeric guidance is showing very cold
low temps dipping into the lower to middle 20s: however, think
initial cloud cover and continued brisk northwesterly winds will
keep readings from dropping quite that low. Instead, will forecast
lows mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

High pressure will build into the Midwest on Tuesday, resulting in
diminishing winds and a return to sunny skies. Despite sunshine,
afternoon high temperatures will remain well below normal for this
time of year in the 40s. Once high pushes eastward, a strong
southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance suggest wind gusts potentially
reaching 35 mph by afternoon. Given ample sunshine and strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will rebound well into the 50s.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

The extended forecast will be characterized by a warmer/wetter
pattern. Once deep upper trough initially in place over the Great
Lakes/Midwest shifts eastward, a progressive zonal flow will take
hold across the CONUS for the end of this week into early next
week. The end result will be a return to near normal temperatures
in the 60s with periodic chances for rain. After a warm/dry day on
Thursday, the first in a series of systems will track into the
region Thursday night into Friday. Models are in fairly good
agreement with the timing and track of this feature, with the
ECMWF/GEM remaining just slightly slower than the GFS. Will
continue with chance PoPs across the western half of the CWA
Thursday night, then across the board on Friday. Another warm/dry
day will be on tap in the wake of this system on Saturday. After
that, model discrepancies still exist concerning potential
disturbance on Easter. All models show a 500mb wave passing
through the Midwest on Sunday. The difference is that the GFS
remains dry with this feature, while both the ECMWF and GEM are
developing showers. While moisture will be somewhat lacking due
to limited return flow from the Gulf of Mexico, think strength of
upper wave and good agreement between the ECMWF/GEM warrants a
mention of showers for Easter Sunday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 141110
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
610 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front just west of the
Illinois River, with main area of rain well east of the boundary
across Kentucky and Indiana. Front will progress eastward through
the region early this morning, exiting the E/SE KILX CWA between
12z and 15z. With deepest fetch of moisture displaced well to
the east and deformation zone precip across Iowa shifting
northeastward into Wisconsin, a distinct lull in precip chances
will occur across central Illinois this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow layer of low-level moisture in
place, resulting in overcast conditions and perhaps a few
scattered showers. Better precip chances will return this
afternoon/evening as a northern stream short-wave currently
pushing through the Dakotas approaches from the northwest. As
synoptic lift increases and soundings moisten, showers will become
more numerous across the area. Enough cold air will arrive aloft
to support a rain/snow mix across the western half of the CWA this
afternoon, although air temps in the upper 30s and warm ground
conditions will prevent any snow accumulation. Once the sun goes
down and temps begin to drop, the precip will change to
predominantly snow this evening before shifting eastward and
coming to an end by midnight. A minor accumulation of a couple
tenths of an inch will be possible, especially across the NE CWA
around Champaign and Danville. Once precip ends, skies will clear
from west to east overnight. Numeric guidance is showing very cold
low temps dipping into the lower to middle 20s: however, think
initial cloud cover and continued brisk northwesterly winds will
keep readings from dropping quite that low. Instead, will forecast
lows mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

High pressure will build into the Midwest on Tuesday, resulting in
diminishing winds and a return to sunny skies. Despite sunshine,
afternoon high temperatures will remain well below normal for this
time of year in the 40s. Once high pushes eastward, a strong
southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance suggest wind gusts potentially
reaching 35 mph by afternoon. Given ample sunshine and strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will rebound well into the 50s.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

The extended forecast will be characterized by a warmer/wetter
pattern. Once deep upper trough initially in place over the Great
Lakes/Midwest shifts eastward, a progressive zonal flow will take
hold across the CONUS for the end of this week into early next
week. The end result will be a return to near normal temperatures
in the 60s with periodic chances for rain. After a warm/dry day on
Thursday, the first in a series of systems will track into the
region Thursday night into Friday. Models are in fairly good
agreement with the timing and track of this feature, with the
ECMWF/GEM remaining just slightly slower than the GFS. Will
continue with chance PoPs across the western half of the CWA
Thursday night, then across the board on Friday. Another warm/dry
day will be on tap in the wake of this system on Saturday. After
that, model discrepancies still exist concerning potential
disturbance on Easter. All models show a 500mb wave passing
through the Midwest on Sunday. The difference is that the GFS
remains dry with this feature, while both the ECMWF and GEM are
developing showers. While moisture will be somewhat lacking due
to limited return flow from the Gulf of Mexico, think strength of
upper wave and good agreement between the ECMWF/GEM warrants a
mention of showers for Easter Sunday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Cold front has passed all of the TAF sites, and northwest winds
will gradually become more northerly while still gusting from
25-30 knots into early evening. Have had some showers redevelop in
central Illinois moving northeast, but there will be a period of
drier weather through about early afternoon, at which point rain
showers will become more numerous. Colder air spilling into the
area will start to switch the precipitation to a rain/snow mix mid
to late afternoon at most TAF sites, although perhaps holding off
at KCMI til closer to 00Z. The precipitation will become all snow
for a time before ending mid to late evening. MVFR ceilings will
be persistent until late evening, then break up once the
precipitation ends.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 140800
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front just west of the
Illinois River, with main area of rain well east of the boundary
across Kentucky and Indiana. Front will progress eastward through
the region early this morning, exiting the E/SE KILX CWA between
12z and 15z. With deepest fetch of moisture displaced well to
the east and deformation zone precip across Iowa shifting
northeastward into Wisconsin, a distinct lull in precip chances
will occur across central Illinois this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow layer of low-level moisture in
place, resulting in overcast conditions and perhaps a few
scattered showers. Better precip chances will return this
afternoon/evening as a northern stream short-wave currently
pushing through the Dakotas approaches from the northwest. As
synoptic lift increases and soundings moisten, showers will become
more numerous across the area. Enough cold air will arrive aloft
to support a rain/snow mix across the western half of the CWA this
afternoon, although air temps in the upper 30s and warm ground
conditions will prevent any snow accumulation. Once the sun goes
down and temps begin to drop, the precip will change to
predominantly snow this evening before shifting eastward and
coming to an end by midnight. A minor accumulation of a couple
tenths of an inch will be possible, especially across the NE CWA
around Champaign and Danville. Once precip ends, skies will clear
from west to east overnight. Numeric guidance is showing very cold
low temps dipping into the lower to middle 20s: however, think
initial cloud cover and continued brisk northwesterly winds will
keep readings from dropping quite that low. Instead, will forecast
lows mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

High pressure will build into the Midwest on Tuesday, resulting in
diminishing winds and a return to sunny skies. Despite sunshine,
afternoon high temperatures will remain well below normal for this
time of year in the 40s. Once high pushes eastward, a strong
southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday. Forecast
soundings and numeric guidance suggest wind gusts potentially
reaching 35 mph by afternoon. Given ample sunshine and strong
southerly flow, high temperatures will rebound well into the 50s.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

The extended forecast will be characterized by a warmer/wetter
pattern. Once deep upper trough initially in place over the Great
Lakes/Midwest shifts eastward, a progressive zonal flow will take
hold across the CONUS for the end of this week into early next
week. The end result will be a return to near normal temperatures
in the 60s with periodic chances for rain. After a warm/dry day on
Thursday, the first in a series of systems will track into the
region Thursday night into Friday. Models are in fairly good
agreement with the timing and track of this feature, with the
ECMWF/GEM remaining just slightly slower than the GFS. Will
continue with chance POPs across the western half of the CWA
Thursday night, then across the board on Friday. Another warm/dry
day will be on tap in the wake of this system on Saturday. After
that, model discrepancies still exist concerning potential
disturbance on Easter. All models show a 500mb wave passing
through the Midwest on Sunday. The difference is that the GFS
remains dry with this feature, while both the ECMWF and GEM are
developing showers. While moisture will be somewhat lacking due
to limited return flow from the Gulf of Mexico, think strength of
upper wave and good agreement between the ECMWF/GEM warrants a
mention of showers for Easter Sunday.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Cold front pushing into west central Illinois at the moment, and
will be clearing the central Illinois terminals over the next few
hours. The rainfall threat has largely ended across the terminals,
although it is still possible for a few more hours at KDEC & KCMI.
VFR and spotty MVFR conditions will quickly fall to widespread low
end MVFR (and possibly briefly to IFR), in the wake of the cold
front. An upper level disturbance behind the main system will
bring a chance of light snow to the terminals late Monday
afternoon into the evening, but significant snow is not
anticipated. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will swing
around to the north behind the front, remaining gusty for most of
the 06Z TAF valid time.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 140447
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Latest surface analysis has low pressure centered over extreme
west central Illinois, with the trailing cold front extending into
the southern plains. Scattered showers have continued to impact
the forecast area early this evening, with a few embedded
thunderstorms. The more widespread showers/storms along the cold
front have been on a downward trend of late with respect to both
coverage and intensity, and with the loss of diurnal heating this
trend is likely to continue.

Current forecast has rest of night pretty well covered. However,
plan to tweak the forecast for the latest trends, mainly to reduce
thunderstorm mention and lower precipitation amounts.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Cold front pushing into west central Illinois at the moment, and
will be clearing the central Illinois terminals over the next few
hours. The rainfall threat has largely ended across the terminals,
although it is still possible for a few more hours at KDEC & KCMI.
VFR and spotty MVFR conditions will quickly fall to widespread low
end MVFR (and possibly briefly to IFR), in the wake of the cold
front. An upper level disturbance behind the main system will
bring a chance of light snow to the terminals late Monday
afternoon into the evening, but significant snow is not
anticipated. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will swing
around to the north behind the front, remaining gusty for most of
the 06Z TAF valid time.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Best threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms to occur
across the area tonight into Monday morning before a change to
much colder weather and a chance of snow Monday afternoon and
evening.

Surface low pressure forecast to push out of Kansas and track
northeast into north central Illinois by late this evening. Models
continue to indicate two areas of enhanced lift/convergence, the
first area over our northwest where the surface low will track
along a stalled frontal boundary, with a secondary area of forcing
shifting NNE out of Arkansas into south central Illinois late
tonight. Instability not overly impressive across the forecast
area with the better combo of instability and shear remaining to
our southwest. However, forecast soundings indicating strong wind
fields just above 925 mb this evening out of the south so any
storm that has a sustained updraft may be able to bring some of
the stronger winds down to the surface, especially just ahead of
the surging cold front late this evening. As far as the heavy
rains are concerned, we missed out last night with most of the
more significant rains remaining to our northwest, but it appears
tonight into Monday morning we could see from 1 to 2 inches,
especially along and west of the Illinois River.

Temperatures will be on the mild side thru a good portion of the night
most areas, but just after midnight we should see the surface low
shift to our north allowing the cold front to surge east across
the forecast area during the early morning hours. Deep cyclonic flow
and strong cold advection will bring windy and much colder weather
to the area on Monday with showers during the morning with the rain
gradually mixing with or changing over to light snow during the
afternoon north, and over the southeast by evening. Still not looking
like much in the way of accumulation with relatively warm ground
temperatures from our 70s and 80s of the past couple of days. In
addition, it does not appear that the rate of snowfall will be that
significant so most of it will be melting on contact. If the rain/snow
persists longer into the evening, then we might see some light
accumulations on grassy areas but for now will not include in the
forecasts.

The main forecast issue after the precip ends Monday night will be
with the cold temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
with readings in the mid 20s north to the low 30s southeast. Some
of the guidance suggests clouds and wind will be a factor thru late
Monday night and if that is the case, especially across the east,
temps may be a bit too cold in that area. Return flow already setting
up by late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the west with slightly
warmer readings in that area, with the east looking to be the coldest
as the surface ridge axis will just to their east. Gusty south winds
will usher in warmer temperatures for Wednesday with afternoon highs
back into the 50s, which is still below normal for the middle of April.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Still seeing some significant model differences with respect to
the systems for late in the week and weekend. The ECMWF is weaker
with the upper wave for late Thursday into Friday, but yet has
trended stronger with the shortwave digging southeast into the
Great Lakes for Easter Sunday. The last few runs of the GFS
ensemble have kept the precip chances going for late Thursday and
Friday and were not showing as much amplification with the upper
wave late next weekend with little in the way of precip for our
area. The better chances for showers will be late Thursday into
Friday with the first shortwave, but will hold on to only slight
chances for now for the system on Easter Sunday. Will have some
fluctuations with the temperatures ahead and behind these shortwaves
but overall, it appears we still may be averaging a bit below normal
as we head into the weekend, but it sure beats what we are going
to see tomorrow and Tuesday.

Smith


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 140200
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Latest surface analysis has low pressure centered over extreme
west central Illinois, with the trailing cold front extending into
the southern plains. Scattered showers have continued to impact
the forecast area early this evening, with a few embedded
thunderstorms. The more widespread showers/storms along the cold
front have been on a downward trend of late with respect to both
coverage and intensity, and with the loss of diurnal heating this
trend is likely to continue.

Current forecast has rest of night pretty well covered. However,
plan to tweak the forecast for the latest trends, mainly to reduce
thunderstorm mention and lower precipitation amounts.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

A strong cold front will cross the central Illinois terminals
tonight, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The
thunderstorm chances will generally be confined to an hour or two
window along and just ahead of the front, and have covered this in
the TAFS with a TEMPO group. VFR conditions should prevail until
the heavier precipitation just ahead of the front pushes in, with
conditions then rapidly degrading into MVFR and IFR. Expect
conditions to improve to MVFR again on the back side of the system
on Monday. As the colder air spills in on Monday, any lingering
precipitation on the back side of the system may mix with or
change to snow. However, significant snowfall is not anticipated
and have only carried a VCSH for Monday at this point given low
confidence in coverage. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the system
will quickly shift northerly (remaining gusty) in its wake.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Best threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms to occur
across the area tonight into Monday morning before a change to
much colder weather and a chance of snow Monday afternoon and
evening.

Surface low pressure forecast to push out of Kansas and track
northeast into north central Illinois by late this evening. Models
continue to indicate two areas of enhanced lift/convergence, the
first area over our northwest where the surface low will track
along a stalled frontal boundary, with a secondary area of forcing
shifting NNE out of Arkansas into south central Illinois late
tonight. Instability not overly impressive across the forecast
area with the better combo of instability and shear remaining to
our southwest. However, forecast soundings indicating strong wind
fields just above 925 mb this evening out of the south so any
storm that has a sustained updraft may be able to bring some of
the stronger winds down to the surface, especially just ahead of
the surging cold front late this evening. As far as the heavy
rains are concerned, we missed out last night with most of the
more significant rains remaining to our northwest, but it appears
tonight into Monday morning we could see from 1 to 2 inches,
especially along and west of the Illinois River.

Temperatures will be on the mild side thru a good portion of the night
most areas, but just after midnight we should see the surface low
shift to our north allowing the cold front to surge east across
the forecast area during the early morning hours. Deep cyclonic flow
and strong cold advection will bring windy and much colder weather
to the area on Monday with showers during the morning with the rain
gradually mixing with or changing over to light snow during the
afternoon north, and over the southeast by evening. Still not looking
like much in the way of accumulation with relatively warm ground
temperatures from our 70s and 80s of the past couple of days. In
addition, it does not appear that the rate of snowfall will be that
significant so most of it will be melting on contact. If the rain/snow
persists longer into the evening, then we might see some light
accumulations on grassy areas but for now will not include in the
forecasts.

The main forecast issue after the precip ends Monday night will be
with the cold temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
with readings in the mid 20s north to the low 30s southeast. Some
of the guidance suggests clouds and wind will be a factor thru late
Monday night and if that is the case, especially across the east,
temps may be a bit too cold in that area. Return flow already setting
up by late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the west with slightly
warmer readings in that area, with the east looking to be the coldest
as the surface ridge axis will just to their east. Gusty south winds
will usher in warmer temperatures for Wednesday with afternoon highs
back into the 50s, which is still below normal for the middle of April.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Still seeing some significant model differences with respect to
the systems for late in the week and weekend. The ECMWF is weaker
with the upper wave for late Thursday into Friday, but yet has
trended stronger with the shortwave digging southeast into the
Great Lakes for Easter Sunday. The last few runs of the GFS
ensemble have kept the precip chances going for late Thursday and
Friday and were not showing as much amplification with the upper
wave late next weekend with little in the way of precip for our
area. The better chances for showers will be late Thursday into
Friday with the first shortwave, but will hold on to only slight
chances for now for the system on Easter Sunday. Will have some
fluctuations with the temperatures ahead and behind these shortwaves
but overall, it appears we still may be averaging a bit below normal
as we head into the weekend, but it sure beats what we are going
to see tomorrow and Tuesday.

Smith

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 140000
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Best threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms to occur
across the area tonight into Monday morning before a change to
much colder weather and a chance of snow Monday afternoon and
evening.

Surface low pressure forecast to push out of Kansas and track
northeast into north central Illinois by late this evening. Models
continue to indicate two areas of enhanced lift/convergence, the
first area over our northwest where the surface low will track
along a stalled frontal boundary, with a secondary area of forcing
shifting NNE out of Arkansas into south central Illinois late
tonight. Instability not overly impressive across the forecast
area with the better combo of instability and shear remaining to
our southwest. However, forecast soundings indicating strong wind
fields just above 925 mb this evening out of the south so any
storm that has a sustained updraft may be able to bring some of
the stronger winds down to the surface, especially just ahead of
the surging cold front late this evening. As far as the heavy
rains are concerned, we missed out last night with most of the
more significant rains remaining to our northwest, but it appears
tonight into Monday morning we could see from 1 to 2 inches,
especially along and west of the Illinois River.

Temperatures will be on the mild side thru a good portion of the night
most areas, but just after midnight we should see the surface low
shift to our north allowing the cold front to surge east across
the forecast area during the early morning hours. Deep cyclonic flow
and strong cold advection will bring windy and much colder weather
to the area on Monday with showers during the morning with the rain
gradually mixing with or changing over to light snow during the
afternoon north, and over the southeast by evening. Still not looking
like much in the way of accumulation with relatively warm ground
temperatures from our 70s and 80s of the past couple of days. In
addition, it does not appear that the rate of snowfall will be that
significant so most of it will be melting on contact. If the rain/snow
persists longer into the evening, then we might see some light
accumulations on grassy areas but for now will not include in the
forecasts.

The main forecast issue after the precip ends Monday night will be
with the cold temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
with readings in the mid 20s north to the low 30s southeast. Some
of the guidance suggests clouds and wind will be a factor thru late
Monday night and if that is the case, especially across the east,
temps may be a bit too cold in that area. Return flow already setting
up by late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the west with slightly
warmer readings in that area, with the east looking to be the coldest
as the surface ridge axis will just to their east. Gusty south winds
will usher in warmer temperatures for Wednesday with afternoon highs
back into the 50s, which is still below normal for the middle of April.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Still seeing some significant model differences with respect to
the systems for late in the week and weekend. The ECMWF is weaker
with the upper wave for late Thursday into Friday, but yet has
trended stronger with the shortwave digging southeast into the
Great Lakes for Easter Sunday. The last few runs of the GFS
ensemble have kept the precip chances going for late Thursday and
Friday and were not showing as much amplification with the upper
wave late next weekend with little in the way of precip for our
area. The better chances for showers will be late Thursday into
Friday with the first shortwave, but will hold on to only slight
chances for now for the system on Easter Sunday. Will have some
fluctuations with the temperatures ahead and behind these shortwaves
but overall, it appears we still may be averaging a bit below normal
as we head into the weekend, but it sure beats what we are going
to see tomorrow and Tuesday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

A strong cold front will cross the central Illinois terminals
tonight, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The
thunderstorm chances will generally be confined to an hour or two
window along and just ahead of the front, and have covered this in
the TAFS with a TEMPO group. VFR conditions should prevail until
the heavier precipitation just ahead of the front pushes in, with
conditions then rapidly degrading into MVFR and IFR. Expect
conditions to improve to MVFR again on the back side of the system
on Monday. As the colder air spills in on Monday, any lingering
precipitation on the back side of the system may mix with or
change to snow. However, significant snowfall is not anticipated
and have only carried a VCSH for Monday at this point given low
confidence in coverage. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the system
will quickly shift northerly (remaining gusty) in its wake.

Bak
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KILX 131912
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
212 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Best threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms to occur
across the area tonight into Monday morning before a change to
much colder weather and a chance of snow Monday afternoon and
evening.

Surface low pressure forecast to push out of Kansas and track
northeast into north central Illinois by late this evening. Models
continue to indicate two areas of enhanced lift/convergence, the
first area over our northwest where the surface low will track
along a stalled frontal boundary, with a secondary area of forcing
shifting NNE out of Arkansas into south central Illinois late
tonight. Instability not overly impressive across the forecast
area with the better combo of instability and shear remaining to
our southwest. However, forecast soundings indicating strong wind
fields just above 925 mb this evening out of the south so any
storm that has a sustained updraft may be able to bring some of
the stronger winds down to the surface, especially just ahead of
the surging cold front late this evening. As far as the heavy
rains are concerned, we missed out last night with most of the
more significant rains remaining to our northwest, but it appears
tonight into Monday morning we could see from 1 to 2 inches,
especially along and west of the Illinois River.

Temperatures will be on the mild side thru a good portion of the night
most areas, but just after midnight we should see the surface low
shift to our north allowing the cold front to surge east across
the forecast area during the early morning hours. Deep cyclonic flow
and strong cold advection will bring windy and much colder weather
to the area on Monday with showers during the morning with the rain
gradually mixing with or changing over to light snow during the
afternoon north, and over the southeast by evening. Still not looking
like much in the way of accumulation with relatively warm ground
temperatures from our 70s and 80s of the past couple of days. In
addition, it does not appear that the rate of snowfall will be that
significant so most of it will be melting on contact. If the rain/snow
persists longer into the evening, then we might see some light
accumulations on grassy areas but for now will not include in the
forecasts.

The main forecast issue after the precip ends Monday night will be
with the cold temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
with readings in the mid 20s north to the low 30s southeast. Some
of the guidance suggests clouds and wind will be a factor thru late
Monday night and if that is the case, especially across the east,
temps may be a bit too cold in that area. Return flow already setting
up by late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the west with slightly
warmer readings in that area, with the east looking to be the coldest
as the surface ridge axis will just to their east. Gusty south winds
will usher in warmer temperatures for Wednesday with afternoon highs
back into the 50s, which is still below normal for the middle of April.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

Still seeing some significant model differences with respect to
the systems for late in the week and weekend. The ECMWF is weaker
with the upper wave for late Thursday into Friday, but yet has
trended stronger with the shortwave digging southeast into the
Great Lakes for Easter Sunday. The last few runs of the GFS
ensemble have kept the precip chances going for late Thursday and
Friday and were not showing as much amplification with the upper
wave late next weekend with little in the way of precip for our
area. The better chances for showers will be late Thursday into
Friday with the first shortwave, but will hold on to only slight
chances for now for the system on Easter Sunday. Will have some
fluctuations with the temperatures ahead and behind these shortwaves
but overall, it appears we still may be averaging a bit below normal
as we head into the weekend, but it sure beats what we are going
to see tomorrow and Tuesday.

Smith
&&


.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the I-74
TAF sites especially PIA & BMI another hour or so with possible
MVFR ceilings and vsbys. Otherwise a break in the precipitation
with VFR conditions into mid afternoon with a dry slot working
into SPI and DEC next few hours where clouds above 3k ft to
scatter out for a time. Elongated 997 mb low pressure from east
central KS into western OK will eject ne toward the IA/IL border
by late evening and then pull a cold front se across central IL
between 08Z-12Z reaching PIA first and CMI last. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of this cold front late this
afternoon and evening with MVFR vsbys and ceilings developing. IFR
to low end MVFR ceilings expected behind the cold front later
tonight and Monday morning. Breezy south winds 14-20 kts with
gusts 24-30 kts to turn nw behind the cold front during overnight
and nnw by late monday morning.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KILX 131755
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Will update the forecast to have higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms further east into central IL today as area of
showers and a few thunderstorms already covering areas west of
I-57 and from I-74 sw. SPC expanded slight risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to areas west of I-57.
Southeast IL se of I-70 should mostly be dry today. Highs this
afternoon range from around 70 nw of the IL river to the upper 70s
over southeast IL. South winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 35
mph today and strongest over eastern IL. Frontal boundary to stay
nw of central IL into this evening and then cold front to push
east through IL overnight and thru southeast IL early Monday morning.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the I-74
TAF sites especially PIA & BMI another hour or so with possible
MVFR ceilings and vsbys. Otherwise a break in the precipitation
with VFR conditions into mid afternoon with a dry slot working
into SPI and DEC next few hours where clouds above 3k ft to
scatter out for a time. Elongated 997 mb low pressure from east
central KS into western OK will eject ne toward the IA/IL border
by late evening and then pull a cold front se across central IL
between 08Z-12Z reaching PIA first and CMI last. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of this cold front late this
afternoon and evening with MVFR vsbys and ceilings developing. IFR
to low end MVFR ceilings expected behind the cold front later
tonight and Monday morning. Breezy south winds 14-20 kts with
gusts 24-30 kts to turn nw behind the cold front during overnight
and nnw by late monday morning.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.

As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.

Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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